2022 Illinois Elections Preview Part One: The Statewide Primaries
Why does the GOP get all the interesting primaries?!?
Hello everybody! My name is Uncrewed/Chris and my home state of Illinois is holding their primaries this Tuesday. Because of that, I thought it would be fun to go over some of the more important/interesting primaries going down on Tuesday. I’m starting off with the statewide races today. There’s only five of them, but there is a lot to talk about, so let’s get straight into it!
Governor Republican Primary:
How Richard Irvin may have just wasted $50 million of Ken Griffin’s money
The biggest race of the night will be the Republican primary for Governor. Six candidates are running to face JB Pritzker: State Senator Darren Bailey, Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin, venture capitalist Jesse Sullivan, businessman Gary Rabine, former State Senator Paul Schimpf, and attorney Max Solomon.
Bailey was the frontrunner in this race for most of 2021, but near the end of the year Republicans started getting very concerned that Bailey couldn’t beat Pritzker. Why you may ask? Well, Bailey is a hardcore conservative. He earned those stripes by being one of the biggest fighters of Pritzker’s COVID-19 mandates, going all the way back to May 2020 when he was still just a State Representative. Because of that, billionaire businessman Ken Griffin sought to find a winnable candidate. After initially trying to get Chicago Cubs co-owner Todd Ricketts to jump in, he got Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin to join the race. Irvin’s an interesting guy, having won the 2017 Aurora Mayoral race in a bit of an upset. He’s also unique in the fact that he’s a Republican mayor of a city that backed Biden by 39 points and Pritzker by 30. Because of that, he was a very moderate Republican as mayor, heavily working with people like Pritzker and Congresswoman Lauren Underwood. This made him very popular in the city and he won re-election in 2021 by over 30 points. However, when he jumped in the race in January 2022, he sort of abandoned those moderate positions and started playing heavily to the base. He emphasized his support for “All Lives Matter” and heavily focused on “law and order” issues. Irvin was able to cement that image with nearly $50 million of Ken Griffin’s money in ads, mailers, etc. Take it from an Illinois resident, I would see Richard Irvin ads nearly every commercial break here!
Irvin looked like he was coasting to a high-profile November election with Pritzker, but something interesting started happening in April. The Democratic Governors Association started airing ads “opposing” Darren Bailey in an attempt to boost his credibility in the primary. Soon after that, more bad news leaked about Irvin regarding some potential pay-to-play allegations involving him and Ken Griffin. Irvin was also heavily criticized for an incident in 2021 for allegedly telling his then-girlfriend that her assault charges would be “taken care of.” After that, it was open season on Irvin. He soon started becoming the target of Pritzker/DGA ads and other Republicans started attacking him for flip-flopping so much on culture war issues. And what was Irvin’s response? Essentially it was just saying Pritzker was “scared” of him. It didn’t work and his lead in the polls started dropping. A subpar debate performance was the cherry on top of his no-good, very bad, horrible month and he lost his lead in the polls by early June. Who did he lose it to? None other than the original frontrunner of this race Darren Bailey.
Aided by the DGA ads and help from his own supportive billionaire (Dick Uihlien), Bailey surged into a polling lead, leading Irvin on average by 14 points in recent polling. Bailey’s really been able to play up his conservative bonafides, especially in contrast to Irvin (who’s been attacked for voting in Democratic primaries and even endorsing a Democrat for State Representative in 2018 in a Republican seat). He’s also been getting a boost from the ultra-conservative politicians in Illinois, having been endorsed by Jeanne Ives and Congresswoman Mary Miller. Hell, there’s even some speculation that Trump could endorse him! That probably won’t happen, but he’s still in the lead regardless.
As for the non-Bailey/Irvin picture, Jesse Sullivan seems like the candidate most likely to surge. Apparently his internal polling has him in striking distance of first and he’s been raising a decent chunk of change. He’s heavily running on culture war issues, very similar to what other candidates like Blake Masters in Arizona and J.D. Vance in Ohio have been doing. Hell, he even looks like he was cloned out of the same Thiel Group lab that produced Masters! Anyway, after Sullivan there’s Gary Rabine, a businessman who’s raised a good amount of money, but that hasn’t really translated into support. Paul Schimpf and Max Solomon round out the field. Schimpf’s an interesting guy, a pro-union Republican and he’s been endorsed by the Chicago Tribune. However, he’s polling at around 5%, near the bottom with Solomon, who hasn’t really done much.
As for who will win, that’s an interesting question. Bailey is definitely the favorite for now, something I couldn’t imagine myself saying not even three months ago. Irvin still has an outside chance despite all of his failures in recent months. Sullivan’s a dark horse candidate, especially if his internal polling is actually realistic. Rabine, Schimpf, and Solomon though? No shot. In November, Pritzker probably wins against all six of these men, but Irvin would definitely give him the toughest time. Say a prayer for the suburban Republicans who have to run on a ticket with a downstate arch-conservative farmer if Bailey wins.
US Senate Republican Primary:
The race to see who will lose to Tammy Duckworth
Let’s get this out of the way, Tammy Duckworth will win re-election in November. Something extremely bad would have to happen to her for any other outcome to happen. She’s extremely popular in the state and will almost certainly outrun Pritzker. As such, the Illinois GOP hasn’t really focused on this race, leading to a massive clown car primary. Eight Republicans are running: attorney Kathy Salvi, former police officer/2020 Senate candidate Peggy Hubbard, radio station owner Matthiew Dubiel, conservative activist Bobby Piton, real estate agent Casey Chlebek, pastor Anthony Williams, perennial candidate Jimmy Lee Tillman, and Maryann Mahlen.
Salvi and Hubbard have traded leads in the polls, but because no candidate has really spent that much on advertising, there are a ton of undecided voters. In the endorsement game, Salvi’s backed by most suburban Republican organizations, while Hubbard is being backed by several conservative activist groups. Because half of the electorate is undecided, I can’t really tell you with much certainty who’ll win. If I had to guess though, I’d say it’d be Salvi, but Hubbard has a good shot.
Secretary of State Democratic Primary:
Alexi Giannoulias Episode V: The Empire Strikes Back
Three Democrats are running to replace longtime Secretary of State Jesse White: former State Treasurer/one-time US Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias, Chicago City Clerk Anna Valencia, and Chicago Alderman David Moore. To say this race has been nasty is probably an understatement. Giannoulias and Valencia have been trading barbs for the last half-year really, with Valencia attacking Giannoulias for much of the same things that sunk his 2010 Senate campaign, shady business dealings that happened at his old job at Bright Star. Giannoulias has fired back, attacking Valencia for her husband’s shady lobbying work. Meanwhile, Moore’s just sitting in the corner as the only candidate without ethics issues and he’s a Chicago Alderman, so that’s impressive!
As for endorsements, Giannoulias is backed by several Chicago-area Congressmen (Chuy Garcia, Bobby Rush, and Illinois Democratic Party Chair Robin Kelly are the biggest) and the Cook County Democratic Party. Hell, he’s even endorsed by the Bernie Sanders-aligned Our Revolution (why such a progressive group would endorse a former banker with ethics issues and endorsed a Republican in the past I have no clue). As for Valencia, she’s backed by outgoing SoS White, Governor Pritzker, Senators Dick Durbin & Tammy Duckworth, and Congresswoman Lauren Underwood. Finally, Moore’s backed by Congressman Danny Davis.
Further complicating matters is a severe lack of polling. This is Illinois’s 2nd most high-profile race on the ballot on Tuesday and we haven’t gotten a poll since January! We’ve gotten more polls of the clown car Republican Senate primary than this SoS primary! I think Giannoulias wins this because of name recognition, but Anna Valencia definitely has a shot and I wouldn’t be shocked if she won. As for Moore, well, he’ll be back on the Chicago City Council soon enough.
Secretary of State Republican Primary:
Wait, why isn’t John Milhiser running for Attorney General?
Two candidates are looking to become Illinois’s first Republican statewide office holder since 2016: State Representative Dan Brady and former US Attorney John Milhiser.
Brady was the first to join the race, announcing back in November, but he’s pretty much been running since last summer. It looked like he’d have the field to himself for the longest time, but Milhiser jumped in the race in January, backed by billionaire businessman Ken Griffin. This came as a bit of a surprise considering Brady had pretty much locked down much of the party establishment’s support, having the backing of State House Minority Leader Jim Durkin and every Republican Congressman not named Adam Kinzinger. So with such a well-connected candidate already running, that begs the question, why did Milhiser just run for Attorney General? That primary field’s wide open (we’ll get to that shortly) and the Griffin-backed candidate in that race isn’t really notable. Brady would also make a good statewide candidate, probably made even better without the need for a potential bruising primary.
That aside, Brady’s led Milhiser in both polls taken of this race so far, leading the former US Attorney by 15 points on average (albeit with a lot of undecideds). I think Brady wins this, but Milhiser definitely has a shot. As for November, it’s going to be a close race regardless of who wins here and in the Democratic primary. If I had to guess though, I’d say Republicans would rather face Giannoulias than Valencia.
Attorney General Republican Primary:
How to parlay being a grifter lawyer into a statewide primary win in three easy steps!
The race to face Democratic Attorney General Kwame Raoul features three candidates: attorney Steve Kim (who’s backed by Ken Griffin), conservative activist/attorney Tom DeVore, and attorney David Shestokas.
I said Kim was backed by Griffin, but he’s sort of been the black sheep of the Griffin slate, not really having a ton of support (especially compared to Richard Irvin). That allowed DeVore to catch up to him. DeVore sort of took the same path Darren Bailey did in the Governor’s race, making his name in conservative circles for aggressively fighting COVID-19 mandates and rules. Most of his court cases were frivolous and didn’t end well, but the ones that did made him a real arch-conservative darling. Shestokas became somewhat well known in the aftermath of the 2020 Presidential election, arguing in states like Florida and Georgia that there was a substantial amount of election fraud. So we have a perennial candidate, a far-right lawyer who has the words ‘FREEDOM’ and ‘LIBERTY’ tattooed across his arms, and an election denier running. Kwame Raoul is licking his chops right now and John Milhiser is still wondering why the hell he didn’t run for AG.
We have two polls of the race, the average of which showing Kim in first with 22.5%, DeVore in second with 20.5%, Shestokas in third with 6.5%, and half of the electorate still undecided. If I had to guess, I’d say DeVore wins this. Now take this with several tons of salt, but I’ve been seeing a lot of DeVore signs around and pretty much nothing from Kim. I know, campaign signs don’t equal votes, but I have to predict a winner somehow! No matter who wins the primary though will be the heavy underdog against Kwame Raoul in November. Though I do want to mention something, if Irvin loses the Governor’s race, Milhiser loses the Secretary of State race, and Kim loses the AG race, every member of Griffin’s slate of candidates who had to face contested primaries would have lost. Not a good sign going into November if it happens.
That’s all for this rundown of Illinois’s important statewide primaries! I’ll be back tomorrow to go over the important Congressional primaries, but until then, stay excellent!