2022 Illinois Elections Preview Part Two: The Congressional Primaries
Illinois is leading the nation in interesting House primaries!
Hello everybody! My name is Uncrewed/Chris and my home state of Illinois is holding their primaries this Tuesday. Because of that, I thought it would be fun to go over some of the more important/interesting primaries going down on Tuesday. We went over the statewide primaries yesterday, so now we’re going over the Congressional primaries. There are several important ones, so let’s get into it!
IL-01 Democratic Primary:
The clustertruck primary that we deserved
When longtime Democratic incumbent Bobby Rush announced his retirement in January, that set off a wide open race to replace him. By my count, nearly 20 candidates are running, but only seven are notable: Rainbow/PUSH Coalition Spokesman Jonathon Jackson, Chicago Alderwoman Pat Dowell, State Senator Jacqui Collins, nonprofit executive Karin Norrington-Reaves, businessman Jonathan Swain, pastor Chris Butler, and community organizer Jahmal Cole.
Nearly every one of these seven have gotten some serious endorsements too, with Jackson being backed by Senator Bernie Sanders and Congressman Chuy Garcia. Dowell is backed by former Senator Carol Moseley Braun, Collins is backed by nearly the entire State Senate Democratic caucus, Norrington-Reaves has the backing of Congressman Rush, and Butler’s backed by the Fraternal Order of Police and even former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee! He’s an anti-abortion Democrat, so that explains it.
Our only poll of the race comes from May, which showed Jackson leading with 19%, Collins & Dowell tied for second with 14%, Norrington-Reaves in fourth with 5%, and Swain in fifth with 3%, 42% were undecided though. This one is going to be a close honestly, I wouldn’t be shocked if the eventual winner got less than 30%. Either way, I think Jackson pulls this out based on name recognition, but Dowell and to a lesser extent Collins & Norrington-Reaves have shots at winning.
IL-03 Democratic Primary:
Illinois finally got a second Hispanic district like 20 years after it should have!
After decades of trying to get one, Illinois’s Hispanic community was finally able to receive a second Hispanic Congressional district. It only took throwing together Sean Casten and Marie Newman, but despite the state losing a seat, they were able to do it. As such, two major Democrats are running to become only the third Hispanic Congressman from Illinois: Chicago Alderman Gilbert Villegas and State Representative Delia Ramirez.
Ramirez is backed by Congressman Chuy Garcia (who currently represents a decent chunk of the district), Senators Bernie Sanders & Elizabeth Warren, and several local unions. Villegas is backed by former Congressman Luis Gutierrez, state Comptroller Susana Mendoza, and groups like Democratic Majority for Israel.
We don’t have much polling on the race, but Ramirez has led in the scarce polling we have on average by about 10 points. I think she’ll win it, but I wouldn’t count Villegas out.
IL-06 Democratic Primary:
All the primary tropes have finally made their way to Illinois
Illinois will be home to two of the nation’s six incumbent vs incumbent primaries! We’ll start off with IL-06, a two-person race between current IL-03 Congresswoman Marie Newman and IL-06 Congressman Sean Casten.
Casten’s backed by a lot of the more “generic Democrat” Congressmen, like he’s endorsed by people like Tom Malinowski and Ed Perlmutter, it doesn’t scream more “generic Democrat” then those two! He also has the backing of several DuPage County State Legislators and groups like Democratic Majority for Israel, who have been hitting Newman hard over the airwaves. To her credit, Newman’s backed by a bunch of progressive Congresspeople and plenty of local unions.
The only recent polling we have of the race comes from a Casten internal, which showed him up 36-27 on Newman, but with 35% undecided. I think Casten wins this one honestly, Newman’s just been getting hit way too hard on her ethics issues and Casten’s been blanketing the airwaves.
IL-06 Republican Primary:
What happens when a few local Mayors face a bunch of crazies
We have six candidates running for the GOP’s first chance at winning a district with Chicago in it since the 90’s: Burr Ridge Mayor Gary Grasso, Orland Park Mayor Keith Pekau, former Oak Lawn School Board Member Rob Cruz, attorney Scott Kaspar, businesswoman Niki Conforti, and real estate agent Catherine O’Shea.
Pekau is backed by a lot of the social conservative darlings in Illinois, most notably former State Representative Jeanne Ives. Why is that you may ask? Well, he became somewhat of a conservative darling during the COVID-19 pandemic for openly defying government orders on masks. That makes him the craziest candidate here right? Nope, there are four others. Rob Cruz sued Governor Pritzker over a school mask mandate and named his school district as a defendant without them knowing! As such, he was thrown off the school board. Kaspar has called to eliminate early voting and voting by mail and recently came under fire for paying nearly $20,000 of campaign money to charter a plane for Rudy Giuliani. O’Shea has called for troops to be present at voting stations and Conforti blamed rising crime statistics on George Soros. Gary Grasso is pretty much the only moderate in this race, pretty much running as a fiscal conservative and social moderate. In fact, Grasso is the only candidate running who said he would have voted to certify Biden’s victory in 2020 and called to reestablish the American Rescue Plan’s Child Tax Credit.
I think only Grasso and Pekau have chances at winning this primary honestly. If I had to pick a winner, I’d honestly pick Grasso, he’s legitimately the only candidate airing ads right now and seems to have all the momentum.
IL-07 Democratic Primary:
Is this the end of the road for Danny Davis?
Democratic incumbent Danny Davis has been in office since the mid 90’s and has had a political career in Chicago dating back to 1979. But this year he faces his toughest challenge yet in progressive activist Kina Collins.
Collins has run an extremely impressive campaign, raising over $600,000 and gaining endorsements from the Chicago Tribune and several progressive members of the Chicago City Council. Davis has taken this challenge seriously though, recently going on air with ads (albeit terribly-made ones:)
and earning the backing of Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot and the AFL-CIO.
I think Davis wins this, but depending on how well Collins does, this could propel her to frontrunner status whenever Davis retires (which is probably sooner rather than later).
IL-13 Republican Primary:
The rumble in the downstate snake
Four Republicans are running to keep this downstate district in Republican hands: former federal prosecutor Jesse Reising, former Decatur Public Schools official Regan Deering, engineer Matt Hausman (who has some cool rocket/space-themed campaign branding), and former C-SPAN journalist Terry Martin.
Reising is backed by former Congressman John Shimkus and is currently an NRCC “On the Radar” candidate. Deering is also an NRCC “On the Radar” candidate and earned the endorsement of former Congressman Tim Johnson before he passed away. Hausman earned the backing of Congressman Adam Kinzinger, which honestly may be more of a bad thing in a modern GOP primary.
To me this is honestly a coin flip between Deering and Reising. Both have raised around the same amount of money and spent similar amounts. If I had to pick though I’d say Deering wins, but it’s honestly up in the air at this point.
IL-15 Republican Primary:
Does Rodney Davis rhyme with David McKinley or nah?
Illinois’s second incumbent vs incumbent primary is taking place in the antithesis of the suburban 6th, it’s taking place in the heavily rural 15th! This race features IL-13 Congressman Rodney Davis facing IL-15 Congresswoman Mary Miller.
I’ve said before that this race reminds me a lot of the WV-02 Republican primary between Alex Mooney and David McKinley and that’s for good reason. Davis, a lot like McKinley, has a moderate (by Republican standards) voting record. He voted to certify the 2020 election, voted to establish the January 6th Committee, supports DACA, and voted to reauthorize the Violence Against Women Act. Miller, much like Mooney, is more of a Freedom Caucus-esque Republican. Miller voted against certifying the 2020 election, voted against giving the Congressional Gold Medal to police officers who fought off the insurrectionists on January 6th, and even praised Hitler on one occasion.
In terms of endorsements, Davis has several important ones. He’s backed by fellow Illinois Republicans Darin LaHood & Mike Bost, Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, and the heavily influential Illinois Farm Bureau. Miller also has several major endorsements, headlined by the arch-conservative Club For Growth and former President Donald Trump.
We have three polls taken of this race, with Davis polling at 40% on average, Miller also at 40%, and about 20% undecided. Because of that, this race is a pure toss-up. Yesterday’s Trump rally for Miller probably helps her here (despite a potential Freudian slip involving white life). Is it enough to push her over the finish line? I’d say so.
IL-17 Democratic Primary:
EVERYONE FROM ROCKFORD IS HERE
With Democratic Congresswoman Cheri Bustos retiring and favorable redistricting, six candidates are running to replace Bustos: meteorologist Eric Sorensen, former State Representative Litesa Wallace, Rockford Alderman Jonathan Logemann, Rock Island County Board Member Angie Normoyle, activist Marsha Williams, and marijuana lobbyist Jackie McGowan.
Sorensen is probably the frontrunner, having raised the most amount of money and having endorsements from the likes of 314 Action and a few Congressmen. Wallace is close behind though, having the backing of several progressive groups, though her fundraising leaves a lot to be desired. Logemann received the support of the AFL-CIO and has raised a good chunk of change, but that hasn’t translated to support so far. Normoyle has the advantage of being one of the few non-Rockford candidates in the race, but her campaign just hasn’t really gotten off the ground yet. Finally Williams and McGowan haven’t done much. Fun fact about McGowan though, she ran in the California Gubernatorial Recall Election last year and finished in 7th, ahead of people like Caitlyn Jenner!
As for who wins, that’s an interesting question. Sorensen and Wallace have been trading leads in polls, but nearly half of the electorate is undecided. I think Sorensen pulls this off though thanks to name recognition (he was a meteorologist in the area for nearly two decades).
That’s all for this preview of Illinois’s Congressional primaries! There were some I didn’t get to that could be interesting (IL-08 D, IL-11 R, IL-13 D, IL-14 R), but those all appear to have frontrunners for now. I’ll be back tomorrow to talk about the interesting state legislative primaries, but until then, stay excellent!