2022 Illinois Elections Preview Part Three: The Legislative Primaries
Buckle up, there's a lot folks
Hello everybody! My name is Uncrewed/Chris and my home state of Illinois is holding their primaries this Tuesday. Because of that, I thought it would be fun to go over some of the more important/interesting primaries going down tomorrow. We’re wrapping things up with the interesting legislative primaries. There’s a lot of them, so let’s get right to it!
SD-10 Democratic Primary:
How the Fraternal Order of Police is rat-f*cking Democratic primaries Part One
Democratic incumbent Robert Martwick faced a surprisingly competitive bid for re-election in 2020, only defeating his Republican opponent by 7% while Biden carried this northwest Chicago-based district by 10%. Why did this happen? Well some attribute this to Martwick’s support for police reform in a district that contains a lot of police officers. As such, the Fraternal Order of Police has recruited police detective Erin Jones to face Martwick this year.
Jones has hit Martwick hard on his support for the SAFE-T Act, the landmark police reform bill that was designed to limit the use of deadly force by police officers and created several other measures designed to increase police transparency. Because of Martwick’s support of the bill, Jones has said Martwick supports “defunding the police” and “criminalizing the police.” She received over $50,000 from the Fraternal Order of Police for this and got the backing of Chicago Alderman Anthony Napolitano. However, there is a twist here…
Jones was a precinct captain for Donald Trump and was a prominent member of the Northwest Side Republican Party Club in Chicago. So yeah, she was pretty much a Republican until the FOP recruited her to run against Martwick. The FOP have denied this and claimed Jones was a lifelong Democrat, but the facts don’t lie here. Martwick is hammering Jones on this, calling her a Trump Republican, probably a decent move in a Biden+17 district. I think Martwick pulls this out, but it’ll probably be close thanks to police officers voting for Jones.
SD-16 Democratic Primary:
Can a Democrat most known for appearing on Fox News win in a deep blue district?
With Democratic incumbent Jacqui Collins running for IL-01, two Democrats have emerged to replace her in this Biden+62 district stretching from southwestern Chicago to the suburban town of Justice: businessman Willie Preston and attorney La’Mont Williams. If you recognize Preston’s name, it’s because he became a bit of a Fox News hit in January when the Chicago Public Schools closed down due to a union dispute. He appeared on Fox News at least three times during the matter, attacking the Chicago Teachers Union relentlessly.
Preston is backed by several Chicago City Councilmen and State Representative Marcus Evans, who represents a little bit of the eastern portion of this district. Williams, on the other hand, is backed by outgoing Senator Collins, Congressman Danny Davis, Secretary of State Jesse White, and several local unions. Williams also leads Preston in the fundraising department. I think Williams pulls this out in the end, but a Preston win definitely isn’t out of the question.
SD-31 Democratic Primary:
Probably the nastiest Senate primary in the state
Democratic incumbent Melinda Bush is retiring from this Biden+23 district covering northern/central Lake County and two Democrats are running to replace her: State Representative Sam Yingling and former State Representative Mary Edly-Allen.
Edly-Allen’s gotten some huge endorsements in recent months, with outgoing Senator Bush supporting her and (more recently) Governor Pritzker endorsing her. Yingling didn’t take that endorsement too well, saying that he was “attacked” by Pritzker when the Governor endorsed Edly-Allen. Yingling’s no slouch either though, getting endorsements from several Lake County elected officials and State Representative Joyce Mason, who represents half of this district (Yingling represents the other half). Yingling also had a decent fundraising lead on Edly-Allen, but she’s closed the gap in recent weeks (perhaps buoyed by Pritzker support).
In terms of how the race has actually been going, it’s been really negative. Between Yingling attacking the Governor over the Edly-Allen endorsement, Yingling has also been attacking Edly-Allen over Mike Madigan. Yingling did call on Madigan to resign, but only after the 2020 election, where Madigan gave over $300,000 to Yingling’s campaign. Overall, I think this is a toss-up between Yingling and Edly-Allen, it’s legitimately 50/50 between the two on who wins. If I had to guess though, I’d say Edly-Allen just pulls this off by the skin of her teeth.
SD-37 Republican Primary:
The pettiest Republican primary of the year
Republican incumbent Win Stoller is facing a spirited challenge from businessman Brett Nicklaus in this Trump+18 district stretching from Sterling/Dixon to northern Peoria.
This would be a normal primary between two generic Republicans, but things took an interesting turn in early June. Stoller endorsed a challenger to a Republican State Representative Mark Luft, so House Minority Leader Jim Durkin endorsed Nicklaus in response! That’s right, Durkin used money that is normally used in November to target House Democrats/defend House Republicans to target a Senate Republican because he endorsed a challenger to a sitting State Representative. It’s petty beyond belief!
The Durkin endorsement isn’t even Nicklaus’s only endorsement though, he’s also backed by State Representatives Tony McCombie, Ryan Spain, and Dan Swanson. All three represent nearly the entirety of the Senate district in the House, so it’s definitely a boon for Nicklaus. I think Stoller holds on though, his fundraising has been pretty good and he’s got incumbency on his side in this weird proxy battle between the House and Senate.
SD-43 Democratic Primary:
How the local Democratic establishment is stacking the deck against a progressive
Democratic incumbent John Connor decided to retire this year, leaving two Democrats to fight for this Biden+21 seat covering the Joliet area: Will County Board Member Rachel Ventura and firefighter Eric Mattson. You may recognize Ventura from her unsuccessful primary against IL-11 Congressman Bill Foster in 2020, a primary Ventura lost by 16 points (the second-most successful progressive primary of the night though). Also another twist here, Connor resigned early and Mattson was appointed to fill his seat, so now Matton’s the incumbent.
Democrats in the district have largely thrown their weight behind the more moderate Mattson, with State Representative Natalie Manley endorsing him and the aforementioned Connor resigning early to give Mattson his seat. Ventura’s received some impressive endorsements though, earning the backing of Congresswoman Marie Newman and the Chicago Tribune. Mattson’s also raking in the cash, raising nearly half a million dollars from elected officials and unions since the beginning of June. I think Mattson pulls this one out, but Ventura’s been underestimated before, so count her out at your own peril.
HD-06 Democratic Primary:
How the Fraternal Order of Police is rat-f*cking Democratic primaries Part Two
Democratic incumbent Sonya Harper is being challenged by police officer Carolynn Crump in this Biden+75 seat stretching from downtown Chicago to the Englewood neighborhood.
Crump is being backed by the Fraternal Order of Police, who have given Crump over $55,000 in her bid against Harper. Harper’s raised a ton of money though, mostly from House Speaker Chris Welch and the rest of the Illinois House Democrats. Outside of FOP support, Crump really hasn’t raised any money, so yeah she’s being entirely propped up by the organization. I think Harper wins this relatively easily, but Crump could get a good chunk of the vote.
HD-13 Democratic Primary:
If you wanted a clown car primary, here it is
With Democratic incumbent/Majority Leader Greg Harris retiring, a massive primary has emerged in this Biden+77 seat covering parts of the north side of Chicago. Five Democrats are running: social worker Eileen Dordek, entrepreneur Hoan Hyunh, teacher Sergio Mojica, businessman Andy Peters, and progressive activist Joe Struck.
Dordek leads the pack in fundraising and endorsements, having earned the backing of Governor Pritzker, Senator Dick Durbin, and Congressman Mike Quigley. Hyunh is a solid second in fundraising, but has the backing of State Representative Theresa Mah and Run for Something. Mojica’s backed by Congressman Chuy Garcia, former Congressman Luis Gutierrez, and several Chicago-area State Legislators. Finally, Peters is endorsed by the Chicago Tribune, which makes sense considering he’s probably the most conservative of the five (conservative by Biden+77 district standards, so pretty much a bog-standard liberal).
I think Dordek wins this pretty easily, but I could see Hyunh and Mojica winning. Peters and Struck? Not so much.
HD-16 Democratic Primary:
The race to see if a progressive Democrat is proficiently “progressive” enough
Democratic incumbent Denyse Wang Stoneback is being challenged to her left by progressive activist Kevin Olickal in this Biden+36 seat covering the Skokie/Lincolnwood area.
Stoneback has come under fire since she entered office in 2020 for a weird reason. She said she would join the House Progressive Caucus after getting elected, but simply never did. As such, a few Illinois progressives have come out for Olickal. Most notably, Congressmen Chuy Garcia and Raja Krishnamoorthi endorsed him alongside several local unions. Stoneback has enjoyed the backing of State House Speaker Chris Welch & Planned Parenthood and has a solid campaign finance lead over Olickal. I think Stoneback wins here, but I’m interested to see if Olickal puts up a good showing.
HD-19 Democratic Primary:
How the Fraternal Order of Police is rat-f*cking Democratic primaries Part Three
Welcome to HD-19, a Biden+35 seat covering parts of northwestern Chicago. This is where State Representative Lindsey LaPointe faces real estate broker Tina Wallace in the final battle between Illinois Democrats and the Fraternal Order of Police.
Much like the overlapping 10th Senate District, this district contains a decent amount of police officers and other first responders, so when LaPointe voted for the SAFE-T Act, that pissed the Fraternal Order of Police off. Though the union doesn’t hate LaPointe as much as Senator Martwick, they’re still attacking her. They’d probably be attacking her more if her original opponent (911 operator Keith Thornton) didn’t drop out, but Wallace has served as a decent replacement. She’s mostly been self-funding recently though, with the FOP not really donating any money. I think LaPointe pulls this off, meaning I think that the FOP is going to go 0/3 in primaries against incumbents this year. Good if that happens.
HD-21 Democratic Primary:
A major battle over abortion in my backyard
Democratic incumbent Mike Zalewski is facing a spirited challenge from political aide Abdelnasser Rashid in this Biden+39 seat covering the southwestern suburbs of Chicago.
Zalewski was a pretty non-controversial incumbent (hell he’s my current State Representative) outside of two things. One, how he got the seat. Zalewski’s the son of former Chicago Alderman Michael R. Zalewski, who was a close ally to then-Chicago Mayor Richard Daley and then-House Speaker/Democratic Party leader Mike Madigan. So when he was appointed to fill an open Democratic seat during the 2008 elections (and after the primary), it was seen as a bit of a nepotism move. After winning his primary for a full term in 2010, he didn’t face a primary again until this year.
The second thing that made Zalewski a bit notable is that he was one of only six Democrats vote against repealing the law that mandated parental pre-notification for abortions in Illinois. That’s what probably earned him the challenge from Rashid, who turned heads in 2018 for nearly becoming the first Democrat to ever win a very traditionally Republican County Board seat.
Rashid has racked up some really impressive endorsements, getting the backing of Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky, former Congressman Luis Gutierrez, and former Cook County Clerk David Orr. Zalewski, on the other hand, is mostly being propped up by the House Democrats, but he did get $50,000 from Governor Pritzker.
These two have also traded several barbs, with Rashid attacking Zalewski for his connections to the ComEd scandal that took down Mike Madigan and his vote against repealing the parental pre-notification. In return, Zalewski has attacked Rashid for accepting money from a Republican donor (which just wasn’t true, that donor was a Democrat who gave money to Obama, Dick Durbin, and Congressman Chuy Garcia) and baselessly called Rashid anti-choice. This is what happens when you have a State Representative who has to run a serious campaign when he’s mostly coasted for the past 10 years. Honestly, I think Rashid wins this. He’s got a ton of momentum and Zalewski just hasn’t been able to get a good thing going. Name recognition might save him though, but for now I’d say Rashid pulls off the upset.
HD-25 Democratic Primary:
The most traditional Progressive vs Moderate primary of the night
Democratic incumbent Curtis Tarver II is facing an interesting challenge from the left from businessman Josef Carr in this Biden+85 district covering southeastern Chicago.
Carr is backed by several important leaders, most notably the reverend Jesse Jackson and former Illinois Governor Pat Quinn. As for Tarver, he’s backed mostly just by House Democrats, including House Speaker Chris Welch.
Carr has hit Tarver hard for multiple things: One: not voting to lift a ban on rent control, Two: voting for Mike Madigan for Speaker, and Three: voting against the organized retail crime bill that would raise penalties for retail theft. He’s also been attacked for not debating Carr, with Tarver responding by saying that his job as State Representative takes up too much time. Overall, I think Tarver pulls this out, but he’s definitely sleepwalking to a win (his campaign website hasn’t been updated since 2018!). As such, I wouldn’t be shocked if Carr pulled a win out.
HD-62 Democratic Primary:
The rumble in Lake County
Three Democrats are running to replace Democratic incumbent Sam Yingling (who’s running for State Senate) in this Biden+26 district covering central Lake County: Grayslake Village Trustee Laura Dias, Waukegan City Official Thomas Maillard, and Lake County Board Member Terry Wilke.
Dias is backed by Governor Pritzker and several local unions, while Maillard is backed by several Lake County elected officials. Dias also leads Maillard in the fundraising department, but he’s raised a good amount of money. Really the only one who isn’t really doing much of anything is Wilke, who’s raised about $2,000 and has loaned himself another $3,000.
As for who wins, I think Dias pulls this out. A recent news story highlighting Maillard’s link to a gaming executive who was involved in the ComEd scandal can’t help his chances, but Maillard still has an outside shot. Wilke must be hoping for name recognition to save the day I guess.
HD-72 Democratic Primary:
A rare open seat in the Quad Cities
With Democratic incumbent Michael Halpin running for State Senate, three Democrats have emerged in the race to replace him in this Biden+21 seat covering Rock Island/Moline: Rock Island County Board member Jeff Deppe, union president Gregg Johnson, and community organizer Thurgood Brooks.
Both Deppe and Johnson have been endorsed by several local unions, while Brooks hasn’t really garnered that much support. There is one good thing for him though, he has a history of overperforming. He ran for Rock Island Mayor last year and pulled 48% against a Republican incumbent who’s now running for State Senate. As for who wins, I think I’d give the edge to Deppe based on his electoral experience, but Johnson and Brooks probably have shots thanks to lingering name recognition from previous failed runs (2018 State Senate for Johnson and 2021 Rock Island Mayor for Brooks).
HD-77 Democratic Primary:
Can a white incumbent win in a demographically-shifting district?
Democratic incumbent Kathleen Willis is facing an interesting challenge from Triton Community College Trustee Norma Hernandez in this Biden+23 district covering areas around O’Hare Airport.
You see, Willis is another example of a white incumbent running in a rapidly shifting demographic district. When Willis was first elected, her district was a little under 50% Hispanic, but by now it’s nearly 55% Hispanic. That may not seem like a lot, but we’ve seen smaller demographic changes like this endanger incumbents who were caught napping. Especially for someone like Willis, who hasn’t faced a primary since 2014.
Enter Norma Hernandez, a community college trustee who’s backed by Congressman Chuy Garcia and several local unions. Willis is taking the challenge seriously though, earning the backing of the Chicago Tribune and House Democrats. I think Willis wins this, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Hernandez pulled off the win.
HD-83 Democratic Primary:
An opportunity to elect Illinois’s youngest ever State Representative
Two Democrats are running in this Biden+18 seat covering the Fox River Valley: former Kane County Board Member Matt Hanson and Geneva Library Trustee Arad Boxenbaum. Cool thing about Boxenbaum, he’s only 21 years old! If he wins this primary and in November, he’d be the youngest Illinois State Representative ever!
Anyway, Hanson’s been backed by several local unions, but Boxenbaum has been endorsed by the Chicago Tribune and several national gun control groups. Neither man has raised a ton of money, but that’ll probably change as we get into the fall campaign. I think Hanson wins this honestly, but Boxenbaum has some serious momentum and could definitely pull a win out.
HD-87 Republican Primary:
A surprisingly competitive primary in central Illinois
Two Republicans are running in this open, Trump+36 seat covering Tazewell/Logan Counties: Tazewell County Treasurer Mary Burress and Tazewell County Board Member Bill Hauter.
Burress, who ran a surprisingly competitive campaign for State Senate in 2020, enjoys the backing of State House Minority Leader Jim Durkin and several Republican State Representatives in party leadership. Hauter, on the other hand, has endorsements from plenty of county officials and State Senator Win Stoller. While Burress started the race with an early lead in the money department, Hauter has caught up to her and then some, lapping her in the fundraising department as of late. I think Hauter wins this race because of that, though Burress’s name recognition keeps her in this for sure.
HD-90 Republican Primary:
The return of John Cabello?
An interesting race has emerged in this Trump+13 seat covering suburban Rockford and the “pretzel city” of Freeport. Two Republicans are running: Roscoe Village President Mark Szula and former State Representative John Cabello. Cabello served in the neighboring HD-68 from 2012-2020, serving as one of the furthest right-wing members of the legislature. That put him out of step with his pure toss-up district and he lost in 2020, despite Trump carrying his district by around 1%.
Anyway, Cabello’s comeback attempt in a more conservative district seems to be working for him. He enjoys the backing of Congressman Darin LaHood (R, IL-18), several State Legislators, and a good amount of local elected officials. Szula, on the other hand, is almost entirely supported by local unions. I think Cabello wins this, but Szula’s an interesting candidate and his attacks on Cabello for missing votes may stick enough to win.
HD-93 Republican Primary:
Part two of the pettiest Republican primary of the year
If you want to know why the SD-37 Republican primary earned the moniker of the “pettiest primary of the year,” then the HD-93 Republican primary is probably why. Incumbent Republican Mark Luft is facing businessman Travis Weaver in this Trump+23 district that stretches from Henry County to the town of Pekin. The Weaver name is pretty well-known in the area, as Travis’s dad served as State Senator in the area from 2014-2020.
Weaver is backed by his dad and State Senator Win Stoller, which is why House Minority Leader Jim Durkin is backing Stoller’s primary opponent. Luft, on the other hand, is backed by business PACs and a few of his fellow State Representatives. Luft has also faced scrutiny for receiving a donation from a businessman who got indicted for tax fraud the same day he donated the money to Luft’s campaign. I think Luft holds on and wins, but the Weaver name may pull Travis over the finish line.
HD-105 Republican Primary:
A weirdly shaped district produces an equally weird primary
Four Republicans are running in this open, Trump+26 seat that stretches from Bureau County to Pontiac to the outskirts of Peoria and then finally to the city of Normal next to Bloomington: Livingston County Board Member Mike Kirkton, Woodford County Deputy Sheriff Dennis Tipsword, businessman Kyle Ham, and businessman Donald Ray Rients.
All four of these candidates are interesting because they’re mostly spread out across the district, take a look for yourself:
They all have their geographic bases and with no clear frontrunner emerging yet, we could be in for a very interesting primary on Tuesday. As for who’s backing who, well…
Kirkton is backed by several of the more conservative members of the Illinois House Republican Caucus and the anti-COVID mandate Restore PAC. Ham is backed by his former State Treasurer Dan Rutherford (his former boss), State Representative Tony McCombie, and former State Senator/2010 Governor nominee Bill Brady. Tipsword is backed by State Senator Win Stoller and several local business leaders. It’s hard to predict who will win this, but if I had to guess it’d be either Ham or Kirkton, with Tipsword having a decent shot as well. Rients is probably the only one who doesn’t have much of a shot.
That’s all for my previews of the Illinois primary! I hope all of you enjoyed what I had to say about all the interesting races going down in the Land of Lincoln tomorrow. I’ll be back on Monday to deliver a post-mortem on what went down in the primary, but until then, stay excellent and if you live in Illinois, make sure to VOTE ON TUESDAY!