2023 Chicago Mayoral Election Preview
Windy City Chaos!
Howdy everyone, Uncrewed here! With Chicago holding its elections on Tuesday, I thought it’d be interesting to take a look at all the elections going down in the Windy City. We’re going to start today with the main event of the night, the city’s mayoral election. With nine candidates running and nearly half of them having a chance at winning, it’s going to be one hell of an election. Let’s meet the candidates!
LORI LIGHTFOOT
Da Mayor
Let’s flash back to May 18th, 2018. That was when a first-time candidate named Lori Lightfoot announced that she would be running against Rahm Emanuel in the 2019 Chicago Mayoral election. As time passed, Emanuel dropped out and several high-profile candidates joined the race, leading to Lightfoot’s early support fizzling out. Hell, she was only getting as much as 5% as late as the end of January! However, February brought a burst of momentum to the Lightfoot campaign, enough so that she was able to finish in first place in the first round of voting. Her momentum only continued to grow going into the runoff and she ended up defeating Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle by almost 50 points in April.
To say that Lightfoot’s time as Mayor has been tenuous is probably an insult to the word tenuous. She has clashed with everyone from the City Council (telling one Alderman that he was “100% full of shit” at one point), to the Chicago Fraternal Order of Police (engaging in a very public feud with union president John Catanzara), to the Chicago Teachers Union (which led to a strike in 2019 that lasted two weeks), and nearly everyone in-between. Also under her watch, crime has increased (which has happened throughout the country, but no leader looks good when that happens regardless). While she did earn high marks during the COVID-19 pandemic, those good feelings have pretty much evaporated now with the pandemic in the rearview mirror. As such, her approval rating is god-awful, with only 27% of the city approving of her in the average of polls taken since December 2022 and 60% of the city disapproving of her.
With all that being said, she still has a decent chance of advancing to the second round thanks to so many candidates running. While Lightfoot’s base in 2019’s first round seemed to be white voters on the north side and lakeshore liberals, Lightfoot seems to be trying to win over African-American voters this time around, with a lot of her endorsements coming from African-American elected officials. She’s also been endorsed by US Senator Tammy Duckworth, IL-02 Congresswoman Robin Kelly, IL-07 Congressman Danny Davis, and EMILY’s List. Can Lightfoot really make the second round after four years of chaos? She’s definitely got a shot.
PAUL VALLAS
The Democratic(?) frontrunner
Paul Vallas has had a long history in Chicago politics. He was appointed CEO of the Chicago Public Schools back in 1995 and resigned in June 2001, launching a failed run for Governor shortly thereafter (only losing by 26,000 votes to one Rod Blagojevich). After leaving Chicago in 2002 to become school superintendents in Philadelphia, New Orleans, and Bridgeport, he returned to Illinois in late 2013 and launched an unsuccessful run for Lieutenant Governor in 2014. He then launched a run for Mayor of Chicago in 2019 and aside from a few awkward scenes in the amazing documentary covering the race, City So Real, he didn’t do much and ended up finishing in ninth place, only getting 5% of the vote.
So what’s changed in four years? Why is Vallas suddenly the frontrunner and nearly guaranteed to get first place in the first round? I think it’s for two reasons, the major one being that he’s the only white candidate in the race. Four years ago, Vallas had to compete with candidates like Bill Daley and Jerry Joyce over the white vote, but now he’s all by himself in that lane. As such, he’s gotten the support of groups like the Fraternal Order of Police and several Aldermen from majority-white City Council districts. He’s pretty much got the white vote to himself outside of progressive whites. Now, the white vote shrinks with every election in Chicago, but it’s still enough to catapult a candidate into the second round, which is almost assured for Vallas. Two, his near laser-focus on crime. Crime is THE most important issue in this election and Vallas has focused pretty much his entire campaign on it. He’s positioned himself as probably the most tough-on-crime candidate (though Willie Wilson has been giving him a run for his money on that recently), which has allowed him to cultivate a solid base of support.
Now, let’s get to what everyone’s waiting for, the controversies. Where do we even begin with Vallas? Alright, let’s start this potential preview of the second round with the biggest one, his ties to Republicans/far-right groups. As mentioned previously, Vallas was endorsed by the Fraternal Order of Police, which is led by a far-right crazy person named John Catanzara. Catanzara has attracted controversy over his comments about Muslims (saying that they all deserve bullets) and comparing COVID-19 vaccine mandates to Nazi Germany. Vallas has refused to denounce Catanzara and the Fraternal Order of Police’s other controversial elements, including a recent appearance from them supporting Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in suburban Chicago. Next, Vallas has some uncomfortable ties to the far-right group Awake Illinois. For those who don’t know, Awake Illinois is a far far far-right grassroots group here in Illinois that is most known for promoting anti-LGBTQ views and seeking to influence school boards with those views. Vallas has denounced the group, but not before attending an event for the group last year. After Vallas denounced them, Awake Illinois released a video showing Vallas supporting the group’s president during an anti-COVID restrictions rally in March 2021.
Next up, Vallas has called himself a “lifelong Democrat,” but that runs contrary to several different pieces of information. Back in 2009, Vallas said that he considered himself more of a Republican than a Democrat and planned on running for Cook County Board President as a Republican. That run never happened, but those remarks reemerged this year. His previous comments on abortion may be what breaks the camel’s back in the second round though. Vallas notably didn’t say anything after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last year and has previously said that he “fundamentally opposes” abortion. Vallas’s opponents have pounced on those comments, but they’ll be even more amplified by his second round opponent, whoever that may be. There’s also the question on whether Vallas even lives in Chicago, as evidence has emerged that he lives in suburban Palos Heights and only rents a house in Chicago. In conclusion, Vallas is almost definitely assured a spot in the second round, but his success there will be determined by voters’ willingness to overlook his past controversies.
BRANDON JOHNSON
The progressive upstart
Brandon Johnson has had an interesting political career so far. He started off as a teacher in the Chicago Public Schools system and later became an organizer with the Chicago Teachers Union. That work led him to the Cook County Board of Commissioners, where he unseated an incumbent Democrat by 400 votes with the backing of the Chicago Teachers Union. He’s been mentioned as a potential candidate for Mayor ever since the 2019 CTU strike, but he called that idea laughable and didn’t actually announce a bid until late October 2022.
As for his platform, Johnson is running as a progressive through and through. He’s the only major candidate not to be in favor of hiring more police officers, instead wanting to focus more on community policing and conflict de-escalation. Johnson’s also heavily focused on education, wanting to expand the Chicago Public Schools budget to $1 billion per year. Johnson’s endorsements have mostly come from progressives like IL-03 Congresswoman Delia Ramirez and the Working Families Party, but he’s also attracted endorsements from a few notable members of the African-American political establishment like IL-01 Congressman Jonathan Jackson and Alderwoman Pat Dowell.
HIs most notable endorsement (for better and for worse depending on who you ask) is the Chicago Teachers Union. The CTU have given Johnson almost $1 million for his campaign, which has attracted controversy from CTU members who don’t support Johnson. Other candidates have also questioned Johnson’s closeness to the group, especially in regards to potential strikes. Johnson has also been attacked by Mayor Lightfoot for saying back in 2020 that defunding the police would be a “political goal.” It hasn’t really led to much in this round of voting, but expect Paul Vallas to pounce on it if Johnson advances to the second round. The good news for Johnson is that he’s getting some good momentum at the best of possible time (similar to what happened to Lori Lightfoot back in 2019), so it may be enough to send him to the second round.
CHUY GARCIA
The second chance
Chuy Garcia has been in the Chicago political sphere for what feels like forever. He was first elected to the Chicago City Council in 1986, where he helped end the “Council Wars” of that era, allowing then-Mayor Harold Washington to pass his agenda. After six years on the City Council, he went to the Illinois State Senate, where he became Illinois’s first State Senator of Mexican descent. After a few years in the wilderness following an unsuccessful bid for re-election, Garcia won a seat on the Cook County Board of Commissioners, which he eventually parlayed into a run for Chicago Mayor in 2015. Chuy was able to hold incumbent Mayor Rahm Emanuel to under 50% in the first round then, despite Emanuel being endorsed by then-President Barack Obama. Chuy would lose by 12 points to Emanuel in the second round, but he firmly established himself as a major player in Chicago politics. Chuy was later elected to Congress in 2018, where he remains to this day. However, while he was running for re-election last year, speculation abounded that he was going to run for Mayor once again. That proved to be true when Garcia launched his campaign two days after being elected to his third term in Congress.
Garcia was seen as a potential frontrunner when he entered, but his campaign really hasn’t gotten off the ground. You can blame that on the late start, but Johnson announced his campaign later than him (and only formed his exploratory committee a few weeks before that) and he’s doing way better. You can probably pin Chuy’s weakness on two things, his ties to corruption and poor turnout operation. On point A, Chuy has been relentlessly attacked for accepting donations from convicted crypto criminal Sam Bankman-Fried and being close to indicted former State House Speaker/Illinois Democratic Party boss Mike Madigan. He hasn’t really responded to either charge forcefully enough outside of returning the donation from SBF and mentioning that Garcia was never accused of doing anything illegal, unlike Madigan. As for point B, turnout among Chuy’s base of Hispanic voters has been really lacking so far in the early vote. As you can see in this map from the amazing Frank Calabrese, turnout in majority-Hispanic wards is lagging behind heavily white wards.
So, Chuy Garcia really needs to win a sizable majority of Hispanic voters in order to have a chance at the second round and there’s good news and bad news in that department. We already mentioned the bad news with the lackluster turnout, but the good news is that he’s backed by pretty much the entire Chicago Hispanic political establishment. From Luis Gutierrez to Dolores Huerta, Garcia has locked down support there. Also, he’s the only candidate to actually spend on Spanish-language ads. He’s only spent $100,000, but it’s notable that he’s the only candidate doing so. If he gets Hispanic voters out to the polls and gets just enough support from whites and African-Americans, he’ll make it to the second round, but that’s looking like a bigger “if” by the day.
WILLIE WILSON
The spoiler?
Where to even begin with Willie Wilson? First off, a pretty inspirational life story. He started off dirt poor and eventually worked his way up to having a $25 million net worth. He’s also run in plenty of races because of that money. He ran for Mayor of Chicago in 2015 and 2019, losing both times, but posting impressive numbers in the majority-African-American wards of Chicago. He ran for President in 2016 as a Democrat, lost big time, and then voted for Donald Trump. Is he even a Democrat? Probably not, he’s probably not a Republican either, he is just Willie Wilson.
Trying to describe Wilson’s policy views outside of public safety is interesting. On public safety, he’s probably the most tough-on-crime candidate outside of Paul Vallas, attracting controversy in recent weeks for saying police should hunt down people who flee them like rabbits. Public safety and crime is pretty much his entire MO in his ads too, which makes the rest of his platform a bit barren. He’s broadly anti-corruption, a bold new policy proposal I know, and wants to reduce taxes. So if he’s such a boilerplate candidate, why am I talking about him? Well, his money and deep connections to the African-American community means he’s going to take a good chunk of the vote. Not enough to make it to the second round, but definitely enough to play spoiler for someone like Mayor Lightfoot for example. That’s the problem for Wilson, he hasn’t really made an effort to expand out of the African-American vote, in fact in 2019, outside of majority-African-American wards, he did terribly, barely cracking 4% in nearly half of Chicago. But his performance in African-American areas was enough to get him nearly 11% of the vote and fourth place overall. I can definitely imagine a scenario where Wilson gets even less than what he got in 2019 and costs someone like Lightfoot or even Brandon Johnson a shot in the runoff because of it. Overall, no shot at the runoff, but he’ll definitely play spoiler.
SOPHIA KING, JA’MAL GREEN, KAM BUCKNER, & RODERICK SAWYER
The other guys
I’m grouping the remaining four candidates here because they have no chance at making the second round and aren’t even polling at spoiler-level. Sophia King is a Chicago City Councilwoman who has actually put a decent amount of money in, but that hasn’t translated to polling success. Ja’Mal Green is a community activist who’s probably the most left-wing candidate running, but is barely polling above 5%, which might be enough to hurt Brandon Johnson though. Kam Buckner is a State Representative who hasn’t really put much into his campaign. He’s got a brighter future in Springfield than in Chicago to put it bluntly. Finally, Roderick Sawyer is a Chicago City Councilman and the son of former Mayor Eugene Sawyer, who became Mayor following the death of Harold Washington. Unlike his dad, Roderick has no chance of sniffing the Mayor’s office.
POLLING:
This is where things get interesting. Let’s take an average of all the polls taken since the beginning of February. This is what we get:
Paul Vallas- 22.8%
Lori Lightfoot- 16.1%
Brandon Johnson- 13.7%
Chuy Garcia- 13.5%
Willie Wilson- 11.8%
In conclusion, Vallas is in first and it’s a dog fight for the second spot. Lori, Johnson, and Chuy all have a good shot at making the second round. Wilson’s support has been stagnant at around 12% this entire campaign, so he’s probably going to play spoiler more than anything. So, I guess this is the part where I make a prediction and it’ll get laughed at in a year when we’re celebrating the birth of the Chicago People’s Republic of Roderick Sawyer. Alright, here it goes…
I think it’ll be Paul Vallas vs Brandon Johnson in the second round
Listen, this was a tough one to call. I was torn between Johnson and Chuy making the runoff, but like we saw with Lightfoot in 2019, Johnson seems to have the momentum going into election day. Both Chuy and Lightfoot can still definitely make the second round, but Lori’s going to need Willie Wilson not to suck up enough of the African-American vote and Chuy’s going to need Hispanic voters to actually turn out on election day.
In conclusion, Chicago, get ready for chaos, because if that race for second is as close as the polls are making it out to be, there’s a real chance we won’t know the winner for a few days. So, grab a Malort, order some deep dish and some Portillo’s and just sit back and watch the madness unfold on Tuesday.
Thank you to everyone for reading this, I’ll be back tomorrow to talk about the first batch of the other elections going down on Tuesday, the City Council elections. Until then, stay excellent!