2024 Illinois Primary Part Two
The Race For the State Legislature!
Hello everyone! My name is Uncrewed, aka Chris, and welcome to the second part of my two-part preview of tomorrow’s Illinois primary. Last time we covered a hodgepodge of races from the Presidency to Congress to Cook County, which all seemed to have foregone conclusions (outside of those Cook County races). That will not be the case today because we’re covering State Legislative primaries! While the Congressional primaries aren’t leaving much suspense, you can always count on the State Legislative primaries to do so. It’s especially true this year, as we’re covering 12 different primaries! So let’s get right into it!
BACKGROUND:
Despite what some people (including myself!) predicted, the Illinois Democrats had a really good 2022 in the State Legislature. With suburban Republicans being dragged down by the presence of Darren Bailey (you can read more about him in the last part of my preview) at the top of the ticket, the Illinois Democrats were able to flip six State House seats (all in suburban/highly college educated areas), while only losing one (HD-114, a Biden+6 seat in the East St. Louis area that’s highly dependent on black turnout, which didn’t manifest in 2022). The State Senate was a bit friendlier for Republicans, who flipped two seats (SD-24 in northern DuPage and SD-56 in the St. Louis metro, the former of which the Dems pretty much wrote off early in the cycle and the latter having backed Trump by 2) and only lost one (SD-36 in the Tri-Cities area).
So what do things look like entering 2024? Kind of similar to 2022 in all honesty. The Democrats are campaigning hard on the issues that got them here (abortion, healthcare, education, etc.) and hoping to flip some more suburban Chicago seats, while the Republicans are hoping crime and the ongoing migrant crisis in Chicago are able to win them back some seats that have been trending away from them. Though they aren’t helped by the presence of Donald Trump at the top of the ticket, who’s probably going to lose Illinois by nearly 20 points like he did in 2016 and 2020. And while the Republicans had the FairTax Amendment in 2020 to rile up the base and make some gains in the suburbs, there doesn’t appear to be anything like that this year, so they might be in for another rough year. That’s looking in the future though, so let’s take a look at the races that will be decided tomorrow, starting with the State Senate!
SD-19 (Republican Primary):
Who wants to face a scandal-plagued incumbent?
This Biden+13 district, which covers southwestern Chicago exurbs/suburbs like Homer Glen and Matteson, is currently represented by Democratic State Senator Michael Hastings. Hastings only won in 2022 by a little under 1,000 votes (in fact he was actually losing on election night and only gained the lead after late-arriving mail-in ballots were counted). Why? Well, Hastings had a pretty messy divorce to put it lightly. To put it bluntly, Hastings was accused of abuse (both emotional and physical) by his ex-wife. Hastings has also been accused of bullying staffers/lobbyists and with all of that combined, Hastings was called on to resign by Governor Pritzker back in September 2022. He didn’t (in fact he denied the abuse/bullying allegations) and barely squeaked by in November.
What’s happened since then? Well, it’s been oddly quiet. Hastings has continued to serve as State Senator, with the Democratic leadership’s position pretty much being “well the voters are ok with him, so who are we to force him out?” The Republicans are hoping to prove that position wrong and take out Hastings this year. They’ve got three candidates running: Frankfort Township Trustee Hillary Kurzawa, attorney Max Solomon, and conservative activist Samantha Gasca.
Kurzawa is pretty much a generic Illinois Republican (anti-tax, pro-law & order, school choice, etc.), while Gasca’s more on the MAGA wing (her website prominently calls out teachers for “brainwashing” children and describes her becoming overcome with joy when Roe v Wade was overturned), and Solomon is kind of hard to describe (he’s ran as a Democrat and Republican in multiple different elections). The endorsements back this up too, with Kurzawa enjoying the backing of the Chicago Tribune and Gasca being backed by the far-right Illinois Family Institute.
Kurzawa should be the favorite here, with her local elected experience, but a Gasca win cannot be counted out, especially in such a low-key primary. If Kurzawa wins, Hastings might be in trouble in November. If Gasca wins, then Hastings should be fine.
RATING: LEAN KURZAWA
SD-20 (Democratic Primary):
A progressive/establishment battle with a wrench thrown into it
The northwest side of Chicago is a very progressive-friendly area, as seen by this district’s former State Senator Cristina Pacione-Zayas. Pacione-Zayas, who succeeded now-Cook County Circuit Court Clerk Iris Martinez (you can read more about her in the last part of this newsletter) was one of the most progressive members of the State Senate before she resigned in 2023 to become Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson’s Deputy Chief of Staff.
The race to replace her was fierce, with candidates jockeying left and right to fill the seat. In the end, Iris Martinez held enough power within the Democratic Committee in the district and helped install teacher Natalie Toro into office. Toro’s a mostly establishment Democrat, with not a ton of progressive views, a good fit for most districts in Chicago, but not in an area like this part of Chicago (which has multiple DSA/Progressive Caucus members of the Chicago City Council).
Enter Chicago Teachers Union Organizer Graciela Guzman. Guzman narrowly lost the Democratic Committee vote to Toro and decided to run for a full term against her. Toro’s got the backing of the Democratic establishment (including Senate President Don Harmon and the multiple Chicago Aldermen who propelled her to to the seat in the first place) and several powerful unions (like the AFL-CIO & the Firefighters Union), while Guzman’s enjoying the backing of prominent progressives like US Senator Bernie Sanders, other powerful Democrats like Toni Preckwinkle, and several unions like the Chicago Teachers Union and Illinois Federation of Teachers. I should say this too, no, Toro has not been endorsed by Governor JB Pritzker, despite what her text messages/mailers are implying. It’s kind of desperate that she’s doing that in all honesty.
There is a bit of a wrench being thrown into this progressive/establishment battle though in the form of a third candidate, doctor Dave Nayak. Nayak has thrown over half a million dollars of his own money into this race, but has failed to really gain the endorsements of any local officials. His money and voter outreach will definitely get him votes though and judging by his campaign platform (which is a pretty bog-standard Democratic one), he’ll probably take more from Toro than Guzman.
There’s also a fourth candidate running, community organizer Geary Yonker, but he hasn’t really raised much money (only $7,000) and has no major campaign endorsements. In the end, I think Guzman pulls off the win. She’s running a strong campaign in a district that aligns more with her politically than Toro, who has to deal with Nayak siphoning votes from her. As for the residents of this district, they’re just going to be happy when all of this is over with and they can stop getting mailers from Toro. Seriously, look up all the different complaints people have posted about Toro stuffing their mailboxes with her fliers, it’s all over Twitter and Reddit.
RATING: LEAN GUZMAN
SD-37 (Republican Primary):
A good ol’ fashioned Dixon free-for-all
With Republican Senator Win Stoller retiring and no Democrat running, whichever of the three Republicans running in this primary will almost certainly become the next State Senator in this Trump+18 district covering parts of northwestern Illinois. Those three Republicans are: former Dixon Mayor Li Arellano, Henry County Board Member Tim Yager, and Dixon City Councilman Chris Bishop.
Yager is backed by IL-16 Congressman Darin LaHood, the Illinois Farm Bureau, and the Fraternal Order of Police, while Arellano is backed by Stoller and State Senator Sue Rezin. Both Yager & Arellano have also been neck-and-neck in the fundraising department, with Bishop trying to keep up by self-funding his campaign.
All three candidates are pretty similar policy-wise (pro-gun rights, anti-immigration, etc.), so this one’s mostly about who’s running the better campaign. I think that honor belongs to Yager, but Arellano definitely has a shot.
RATING: LEAN YAGER
SD-53 (Republican Primary);
Who wants to represent a wide swath of northeastern Illinois?
Republican Senator Thomas Bennett is retiring from this Trump+34 district, which covers a wide swath of northeastern Illinois. In his place, four different candidates are running to replace him: Grundy County Board Chairman Chris Balkema, farmer Jesse Faber, former Livingston County Board Member Mike Kirkton, and former Iroquois County Board Member Susan Wynn Bence.
Faber leads the money race and is being backed by the Illinois Farm Bureau. Balkema has raised a decent amount of money and enjoys the backing of the Illinois Chamber of Commerce and neighboring State Senator Sue Rezin. Kirkton and Bence haven’t really raised much and haven’t really attracted that much attention.
In terms of policy, all four candidates are pretty solid conservatives. Balkema has said that he wants to work across the aisle, but all four hold policy positions that are pretty much the antithesis of what the Senate Democrats want to pass. In the end, this is probably a two-person race between Balkema and Faber. It’s pretty much a pure toss-up between the two, but if I had to pick a winner, I’d go with Faber because of the Farm Bureau endorsement. Could easily see Balkema win this though.
RATING: LEAN FABER
HD-21 (Democratic Primary);
Can a Representative care too much about an international issue?
Back in 2022, now-State Representative Abdelnasser Rashid pulled off the upset win over then-State Representative Mike Zalewski, a big blow to the Democratic establishment in this Biden+39 seat on the southwest outskirts of Chicago. Since then, Rashid has pulled off something pretty successful, simultaneously making peace with the Democratic establishment and cementing himself as one of the most progressive members of the State House. Specifically, Rashid (who is Palestinian-American) has become one of the loudest voices on Palestinian issues in the Legislature, especially so during the recent Israeli invasion of Gaza.
Rashid’s only facing one opponent this year, retired Chicago police officer Vidal Vasquez. While Vasquez hasn’t reported raising any money, he’s banking on two things to help his campaign. One, he got the backing of the Chicago Tribune, who backed Vasquez by saying that Rashid’s outspoken advocacy of Palestine would be better served outside of the legislature. This is, of course, ignoring that parts of Rashid’s district (especially in places like Justice and Bridgeview) have significant Palestinian-American populations that are deeply impacted by the current war in Gaza. The Chicago Tribune being dumb aside, Vasquez is also hoping the district’s demographics help him over the finish line. Vasquez is heavily campaigning on being a Latino in a majority-Hispanic district, hoping that racial politics helps him out here. It probably won’t.
Rashid should win this, but he’s campaigning like he’s ten points down, sending out tons of mailers and touting the endorsements of everyone from US Senator Dick Durbin to nearly every union outside of the Fraternal Order of Police. Rashid’s still the favorite though, don’t get me wrong.
RATING: LIKELY RASHID
HD-31 (Democratic Primary):
From leadership to being targeted by leadership
Democratic State Representative Mary Flowers is a history-maker. Since she was first elected back in 1984, Flowers has become the longest-serving African-American State Legislator in Illinois history. Flowers was even able to climb the leadership ladder, becoming Deputy Majority Leader under House Speaker Chris Welch.
That was until May 2023 when Flowers was removed from her leadership position. Why did that happen? Well, Flowers told a staffer that he looked like Adolf Hitler. Combine that with other allegations of abuse towards staff and other Representatives and Flowers was removed from leadership by Welch. Welch also set his sights on defeating Flowers at the ballot box, recruiting teacher Mike Crawford to run against her in this Biden+56 district that stretches from the southwest side of Chicago to the southwestern suburbs of Chicago.
Crawford has racked up tons of money and endorsements since he entered the race, with nearly every major union aligned with Speaker Welch donating heavily to his campaign and big names like the Reverend Jesse Jackson and former Secretary of State Jesse White endorsing Crawford. Flowers, on the other hand, is banking on name recognition, hoping that her years of service to the community is enough to overcome all the money that’s being spent against her.
I’ll put it bluntly, Crawford’s the favorite to win. Flowers is going to do better than how most candidates do when faced with such huge outside spending against them, but Crawford’s the favorite.
RATING: LIKELY CRAWFORD
HD-36 (Democratic Primary):
A progressive/establishment battle in the suburbs
With Democratic incumbent Kelly Burke retiring, a fierce two-person race has emerged to replace her in this Biden+16 district that stretches from Evergreen Park to Palos Hills in the southwest suburbs of Chicago. Our two candidates are attorney Rick Ryan and community activist Sonia Anne Khalil.
Ryan is more aligned with the moderate wing of the Democratic Party, focusing his campaign on public safety and protecting women’s healthcare. Which is kind of weird on the latter count because when Ryan ran for State Senate back in 2000, he was staunchly anti-abortion (a fact that Khalil is hitting him hard on). Khalil, on the other hand, is more to the left, supporting expanding healthcare, attacking “corporate greed,” and promising to protect women’s healthcare. Their endorsements also line up ideologically, with Ryan being backed by Burke, moderate State Senator Bill Cunningham (who represents the entire House district in the Senate), and unions like the AFL-CIO and the Firefighters Union. Khalil is backed by progressive politicians like IL-03 Congresswoman Delia Ramirez and IL-01 Congressman Jonathan Jackson and even some non-progressive politicians/groups like former Illinois Secretary of State Jesse White and the SEIU.
On the finance side, both Khalil & Ryan have raised a ton of money, as evidenced by the fact that both candidates are airing ads attacking each other. And their attacks have been pretty heated too, with Khalil attacking Ryan for not paying his taxes and being censured by the State Supreme Court, while Ryan has attacked Khalil for racking up nearly 30 traffic citations and for being the Vice President of a political club that refused to support Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Presidential election.
So yeah, this one is a bit heated. This is probably the closest thing the State House has to a pure tossup district, which makes this very hard to predict. In the end, I think the establishment wins out and Rick Ryan wins the primary. This is very much a coin flip call and I can definitely envision Khalil winning, it’s just that I don’t know how receptive this set of suburbs will be to progressive politics. To be fair, that was also a concern I had with Abdelnasser Rashid in his district a few miles to the north of here, so maybe the southwest suburbs are more progressive than I give them credit for. I’ll stick with my gut here though and say Ryan wins narrowly.
RATING: LEAN RYAN
HD-76 (Democratic Primary):
Who will win the battle of DeKalb vs LaSalle?
Democratic State Representative Lance Yednock has had an interesting career. From first being elected in the 2018 blue wave (winning a Trump+9 district in the process), to winning re-election in 2020 by 9 points as Trump was carrying his district by the same margin. For his troubles, Yednock was given a much more Democratic district in redistricting. While his old district mostly covered LaSalle County, his new district stretched from Ottawa/Peru all the way north to the college town of DeKalb. Thanks to the new gerrymander, Yednock’s district went from Trump+9 to Biden+10. But Yednock decided to bow out after one term in his new district, maybe because he’s now way too conservative for it (having voted against the SAFE-T Act and the assault weapons ban).
As such, three Democrats are running to replace Yednock: DeKalb Mayor Cohen Barnes, Yednock’s legislative aide Murri Briel, and DeKalb Alderwoman Carolyn Zasada. Barnes is running as a moderate Democrat, focusing primarily on tax issues (wanting to limit property tax growth and sounding kind of muddy on Governor Pritzker’s proposal to eliminate the grocery tax) and is backed by the newspaper that loves themselves moderate candidates, the Chicago Tribune. Briel is running as a “pragmatic Democrat,” (her words not mine) focusing on protecting women’s healthcare & worker’s rights (having the backing of the United Auto Workers), and sounding kind of muddy on the assault weapons ban that her boss voted against. Finally, Zasada is running as a progressive, focusing on protecting women’s healthcare and expanding healthcare in general.
Barnes leads the pack in fundraising, with Briel & Zasada close behind. Which makes sense as I think Barnes is the favorite to win. I’m definitely not counting out Briel though, as she’s the only candidate from LaSalle County (which makes up over half of the district). I can definitely envision a scenario where Barnes & Zasada (who coincidentally ran against each other in the 2021 DeKalb Mayoral Election) split the DeKalb vote leading to Briel winning on the back of the LaSalle/Putnam vote. For now though, I think Barnes pulls it out.
RATING: LEAN BARNES
HD-79 (Democratic Primary):
A brawl in a reach seat
Republican incumbent Jackie Haas has proven to be a strong candidate in this Biden+1 district that covers the Kankakee area, having won in 2022 by 17 points! That’s not stopping four different Democrats from running for the right to face her: Monee Township Trustee Billy Morgan, Kankakee Public Schools Superintendent Genevra Walters, Kankakee County Board Member Robert Ellington-Snipes, and manufacturing worker Dylan Mills.
Morgan enjoys a solid financial lead and has endorsements from numerous Will County politicians, former Governor Pat Quinn, and the Chicago Tribune. Walters is backed by Kankakee County State’s Attorney Jim Rowe and the South Suburban News, but hasn’t really raised that much money. Ellington-Snipes and Mills have both not raised much and their endorsement games are equally lacking.
Morgan should be the favorite here. He’s the only candidate not from Kankakee, which should help him out (I suspect Walters & Ellington-Snipes will split the vote there). He’s also the only candidate really raising money, which he’s going to need a lot of if he wants to unseat Haas in November.
RATING: LIKELY MORGAN
HD-88 (Republican Primary):
From Congressional loser to State House winner?
With Republican incumbent Dan Caulkins retiring, two Republicans are jumping in for the race to succeed him in this Trump+21 district stretching from suburban Bloomington to suburban Decatur (and you may recognize one of them if you were following the 2022 Congressional elections): businesswoman Regan Deering and McLean County Board Member Chuck Erickson. Deering ran for IL-13 in 2022 and lost to now-Congresswoman Nikki Budzinski by 13 points.
So what’s going different for Deering now? Well, she’s got some pretty high-profile endorsements. People like IL-15 Congresswoman Mary Miller to Representative Caulkins and groups like the Farm Bureau and the Fraternal Order of Police are backing her. That’s not to say Erickson’s a slouch in the endorsement game either, because he’s got the backing of former State Representative Dan Brady and former State Senator Bill Brady (both big names in the Bloomington portion of the district). Deering has also enjoyed a nice financial advantage, which is big in a race where the candidates aren’t that ideologically different.
Deering’s the favorite here, don’t get me wrong, but Erickson is from the area’s main population center, which is keeping him in it. That’s one of the only things going for him though, so advantage Deering going into tomorrow.
RATING: LIKELY DEERING
HD-102 (Republican Primary):
An incumbent got thrown off the ballot and all hell broke loose
Republican incumbent Adam Niemerg was well on his way to another term in office in his Trump+53 district covering parts of eastern Illinois. The arch-conservative Representative didn’t face any primary opponents and no Democrat filed to run against him, so another term was as good as got right?
Wrong, because Niemerg was thrown off the ballot because he messed up his ballot petitions. As Niemerg scrambled to run as a write-in in the Republican primary, he now found himself up against another write-in candidate, school superintendent Jim Acklin. Now get this, Acklin was recruited to run by the Illinois Education Association (a teacher’s union), the same IEA was apparently behind the initial challenge towards Niemerg’s petitions and are now funding Acklin’s write-in campaign (alongside other unions like the Laborers’ International Union)! It makes sense though, because Niemerg is one of the more anti-public education Representatives in the legislature. That’s also really the only difference between the two candidates, as both men are pro-2nd Amendment, pro-life, and anti-tax, but Acklin is campaigning heavily on investing in public education.
It’s always hard to predict a winner in a campaign between two write-in candidates. This is made even more challenging by the fact that both candidates aren’t eligible for write-in votes in two separate counties (Acklin failed to file as a write-in in Jasper County and Niemerg failed to file as a write-in in Douglas County). So this prediction is pretty much a crapshoot, but I’m going with Niemerg to pull off the win. I’ll leave you with this, don’t expect full results for this race for a few days.
RATING: LEAN NIEMERG
HD-110 (Republican Primary):
Revenge of the unions
If you thought the unions were targeting Adam Niemerg in HD-102, take a look at how they’re targeting State Representative Blaine Wilhour in this Trump+54 district in southeastern Illinois. Wilhour’s another one of the more arch-conservative legislators in the Republican Caucus, specifically on public education and labor issues. The unions recruited Fayette County Republican Party Chairman Matt Hall to face him as a result.
Hall has received over $100,000 from the Illinois Education Association, the AFSCME, and the Fraternal Order of Police, which has allowed him to get on the air with negative ads towards Wilhour. Wilhour’s not strapped for cash either, as he’s gotten money from prominent far-right politicos like Chris & Mary Miller and Dick Uihlein. Much like HD-102, education’s the only real ideological issue separating the two candidates, as both are still very much on the right flank of the party on most issues (Hall is even attacking Wilhour for voting to make “Obama’s barely legal citizens” police officers, his ad’s words not mine).
As for the winner here, I’m going to go with Wilhour, just barely. Public education is one of the last issues left in these rural districts where the far-right hasn’t broken through, but Wilhour is an entrenched incumbent for a reason and I think voters will be more receptive to his message. I’m definitely not counting out a Hall win though, especially with the flood of union money towards his campaign.
RATING: LEAN WILHOUR
The Remaining Legislative Primaries:
We’re talking about ‘em all folks!
SD-40 Democratic Primary: Democratic Senator Patrick Joyce is running for re-election in this Biden+7 district that stretches from Kankakee to the southern suburbs of Chicago. He faces a quixotic challenge from Braidwood Planning/Zoning Board Member Kimberly Earling. Earling has attacked Joyce for supporting the building of a lithium ion battery plant in the district, but she doesn’t have any money and Joyce is well-known, so he’s the heavy favorite.
SD-58 Republican Primary: This Trump+48 district in southern Illinois features a race between State Senator Terri Bryant and attorney Wesley Kash, who says that Bryant isn’t conservative enough. Kash has pretty much gotten his entire funding from his family and hasn’t really spent it, leading to Bryant pretty much going unanswered on the airwaves. Bryant’s the favorite.
HD-04 Democratic Primary: Democratic incumbent Lillian Jimenez is facing businessman Kirk Ortiz in this Biden+73 district covering the Humboldt Park area in Chicago. Both candidates are similar on most issues except for two major ones, crime & the ongoing migrant crisis. Ortiz is solidly on the conservative side of those two issues, promising to “make crime illegal again.” Not sure if invoking Trump is the best move here, but Ortiz is backed by the United Auto Workers and a few Chicago Aldermen, so he’s getting some traction. Jimenez should win, but it’ll probably be closer than she wants.
HD-05 Democratic Primary: Democratic incumbent Kimberly du Buclet was appointed to this Biden+78 seat that stretches from the River North to Woodlawn neighborhoods in Chicago back in May 2023. Now she faces a challenge from businessman Andre Smith for a full term. Smith is focusing mostly on public safety and the ongoing migrant crisis, even appearing on Fox News to talk about it. That hasn’t really translated to on-the-ground success, as he’s only raised less than $10,000. Kimberly du Buclet is favored to win a full term.
HD-06 Democratic Primary: After easily beating back a Fraternal Order of Police-backed challenge in 2022 in this Biden+75 district that stretches from Englewood to River North in Chicago, Democratic incumbent Sonya Harper faces a challenge from nonprofit director Joseph Williams. Williams and Harper don’t really have that much difference between the two policy-wise, though Williams is heavily campaigning on investing in the community to quell public safety concerns. His fundraising leaves a lot to be desired though and Harper will probably win relatively easily.
HD-22 Democratic Primary: Hey it’s my district! This Biden+31 district covering my home town of Burbank and the Midway Airport area in Chicago is currently represented by Democratic incumbent Angie Guerrero-Cuellar, who faces two challengers in community activist Joshua Hernandez and Chicago city worker John Topps. All three candidates are primarily focusing on public safety, with Hernandez being the most conservative of them (calling for an end of Illinois’s status as a sanctuary state). Neither Hernandez or Topps have reported raising any money and their endorsement games are equally weak. Guerrero-Cuellar is the heavy favorite.
HD-23 Democratic Primary: This Biden+70 seat covering the Little Village/Brighton Park neighborhoods in Chicago is currently represented by Democratic State Representative Edgar Gonzalez, but he’s facing a challenge from Saint Xavier University (my alma mater!) student Joseph Mercado. Mercado’s definitely running to Gonzalez’s right, attacking him for not being tough enough on crime. His only problem is that he doesn’t really have the resources to get his message out. His only major sources of money have come from his family and he doesn’t even have a website or Facebook page. Gonzalez should win this easily.
HD-24 Democratic Primary: Democratic incumbent Theresa Mah is also facing a challenge from her right in this Biden+60 district covering the Bridgeport/Pilsen neighborhoods in Chicago. She’s facing Cook County Board of Review official Lai Ching Ng. Ng is focusing heavily on public safety and reducing property taxes, attacking Mah for being “ineffective” and saying that the Asian community “deserves a Representative that champions their interests.” (her words not mine) Ng’s campaign is heavily backed by Cook County Board of Review Member George Cardenas, who’s endorsed her and is serving as her campaign treasurer. Is it enough to beat Mah? Probably not, as Mah’s still the favorite and enjoys a solid financial advantage.
HD-27 Democratic Primary: Democratic State Representative Justin Slaughter faces a challenge from teacher Tawana Robinson in this Biden+49 district that stretches from southern Chicago to suburban Orland Park. Robinson has mostly attacked Slaughter for being connected to people like Mike Madigan and has mostly been self-funding her campaign. Outside of that, nothing really of note here and Slaughter should win easily tomorrow.
HD-29 Democratic Primary: Democratic incumbent/Calumet City Mayor Thaddeus Jones is facing off against school district trustee Gloria White in this Biden+46 district that stretches from southeastern Chicago to eastern Will County. White has attacked Jones for some ethics issues he’s faced, including a federal investigation into misuse of campaign funds. However, White’s facing monetary issues of her own, specifically a lack of it. She’s raised a paltry amount and her only notable endorser is Dolton Mayor Tiffany Henyard, who is under a whole cloud of ethics issues herself. This area south of Chicago is very much a hotbed for corruption, let’s just say that. Let’s just also say that Jones is favored to win.
HD-35 Democratic Primary: After being appointed to this seat in March 2023, Democratic incumbent Mary Gill is running for a full term in this Biden+15 district that stretches from the Beverly neighborhood in Chicago to the southwest suburbs of Chicago. She’ll have to first get through a perennial challenger in businessman David Dewar. Dewar is running hard to Gill’s right, prominently touting his opposition to abortion, transgender rights, and Illinois’s status as a sanctuary state. Needless to say, Gill will defeat Dewar easily.
HD-49 Republican Primary: Two Republicans are running in the race to face Democratic incumbent Maura Hirschauer in this Biden+17 district covering the West Chicago/Batavia area. Those two Republicans are businesswoman Hannah Billingsley and businessman Aris Garcia. This is a prime example of how the Republican Party is fighting amongst itself, with Billingsley representing the moderate wing (supporting tax cuts, supporting increasing police funding) and Garcia representing the more Trump-y wing (opposing transgender athletes and focusing heavily on illegal immigration). The endorsements also back this up, with Billingsley being endorsed by the Chicago Tribune and Garcia being endorsed by the far-right Illinois Family Institute. Billingsley should win this (as she has the financial advantage), but if Garcia wins, then this district is entirely off the board for the Republicans this year.
HD-76 Republican Primary: We talked about the Democratic primary in this district earlier, so let’s talk about the Republican race to replace Democratic State Representative Lance Yednock. Two Republicans are running: LaSalle County GOP Official Liz Bishop and conservative activist Crystal Loughran. Much like HD-49, this is a battle between the far-right (Loughran) and the establishment (Bishop). Bishop has said that she wants to be a Representative like Yednock or State Senator Sue Rezin (both moderates in their respective caucuses), while Loughran is campaigning hard on being against culture war issues like “DEI” and other stupid buzzwords like “far-left woke liberal policies.” Bishop’s leading Loughran in the fundraising and endorsement departments, so she should be the favorite.
HD-83 Democratic Primary: Democratic incumbent Matt Hanson is facing Geneva Library Board Vice President Arad Boxenbaum in a rematch of their 2022 primary. Hanson won that one in a 67-33 rout and went on to flip this Biden+18 seat in the Fox River Valley in November. What’s happened since then? Well, Hanson was arrested for driving under the influence in October 2023. With no Republican (surprisingly) filing for this seat, we’re going to see the effect of that arrest in the Democratic primary. Boxenbaum has some good endorsements too, having been endorsed by the Daily Herald and several Geneva elected officials. Hanson, sensing a competitive race, is touting the endorsements of House Speaker Chris Welch and several local unions. Hanson should win this one, but his arrest is going to make this race closer than it was in 2022.
HD-99 Republican Primary: This Trump+39 seat in the Quincy/Jacksonville area became open when Republican incumbent Randy Frese announced his retirement. Two Republicans are running to replace him: former Quincy Mayor Kyle Moore and Cass County Board Member Eric Snellgrove. Usually I’d talk about open seat races like this, but Moore is lapping Snellgrove so hard in the fundraising/endorsement department that he’s the big favorite to win. As for what kind of Representative Moore would be, he prominently features on his website that he’ll protect the 1st Amendment, the 2nd Amendment, and the unborn, so solidly on the conservative side.
HD-105 Republican Primary: Republican incumbent Dennis Tipsword is facing a rematch from 2022 in this Trump+26 district in central Illinois from former correctional officer Don Rients. Rients is hitting Tipsword hard from the right, but it’s not really resonating in the financial/endorsement department. Rients finished in last in the 4-way primary that Tipsword won in 2022 and if finances/endorsements are anything to go by, Tipsword is on path to win again easily.
HD-107 Republican Primary: It initially seemed that Republican incumbent Brad Halbrook would retire from this Trump+51 district in central Illinois, honoring a term limits pledge. However, Halbrook decided to break that pledge and now faces paramedic Marsha Webb. Webb trails Halbrook in the fundraising department, but has a pretty big endorsement from the Fraternal Order of Police. Halbrook should be fine, but the bad optics of breaking a term limit pledge might hurt him a bit.
HD-116 Republican Primary: Finally, we get to talk about someone who could be the craziest Republican running for office. First, some backstory. Republican State Representative Dave Severin is running for re-election in this Trump+54 district that covers parts of southeastern Illinois. He’s facing a challenge from the far-right flank of the GOP in Franklin County Board Member Angela Evans. To say Evans has run a bonkers campaign is probably an understatement. She’s attacked Severin for voting to make DACA recipients eligible to become police officers by airing an ad with mariachi music playing in the background. She’s also prominently touting the endorsement of a man who was arrested for burning a cross back in the 90s! Evans is running the most race-baiting campaign of 2024, that’s for sure. Either way, Severin is heavily favored to win, which is good because people like Evans who stoop to this level of dog whistling should be nowhere near the Illinois State Legislature.
And that’s all for my preview of the 2024 Illinois Primary! You can follow me on Twitter (@Uncrewed), where I’ll be posting when the results start rolling in tomorrow. Until then, stay excellent!