2024 Illinois Primary Preview Part One
The Presidency to Chicago!
Hello everyone! My name is Uncrewed, aka Chris, and welcome to the first part of my two-part preview of Tuesday’s Illinois primary. In this set of newsletters, I’ll be covering everything from the Presidential primaries to the Congressional primaries and all the way down to interesting Cook County and Chicago races. So without further ado, let’s get right into it!
BACKGROUND:
I lied, I have to spiel for a few seconds, so bare with me. Back in 2022, I published my first ever preview of the Illinois State Legislative primaries. Did I get all my predictions right? No, of course not. I missed out on Willie Preston’s win in SD-16 and Kevin Olickal’s win in HD-16 for example. But I did hit the nail on the head in one key race, Abdelnasser Rashid in HD-21 over Mike Zalewski. I felt proud of that one, considering that the race was happening in my own backyard. I was also really proud of the fact that my predictions actually got hate mail for the first time ever (from a prominent Illinois journalist who really should know better by the way). I still have that email saved on my phone and use it as motivation sometimes. Anyway, I learned from my mistakes last year and successfully predicted the Chicago Mayoral Election ending up between Paul Vallas & Brandon Johnson when polls at the time showed Vallas & Lori Lightfoot making the runoff. So, yeah, if you’re wondering why this random guy from a small suburb right outside of Chicago thinks that he knows what’s going on in Illinois politics, there’s my proof. Ok, rant over, now let’s get into what you all came here to see, the races!
(Getty)
DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES:
We’re really just watching for protest votes here folks
President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have already clinched the Democratic and Republican nominations for President respectively, meaning that this primary is meaningless right? Kind of. Both Biden and Trump should win their primaries easily, but be on the lookout for protest votes. For Trump, suburban Chicagoland is the place to see if there are any Nikki Haley protest votes, especially places like DuPage County and Lake County (both of which Trump barely won in the 2016 Republican Primary over John Kasich).
As for Biden protest votes? I’m watching an area in the southwest suburbs of Chicago known as “Little Palestine.” The cities of Chicago Ridge, Bridgeview, and my home town of Burbank have decently-sized Palestinian populations, so be on the lookout for protest votes from that area of Cook County. All of those cities aren’t as big as heavily-Muslim places in Michigan like Hammtramck and Dearborn (which gave big anti-Biden protest votes in the Presidential primary), but it’ll be interesting to see nonetheless.
RATINGS: SAFE BIDEN/SAFE TRUMP
(Manuel Martinez / WBEZ; Tyler Pasciak LaRiviere / Chicago Sun-Times)
IL-04 (Democratic Primary):
Why is Raymond Lopez
Democratic Congressman Jesus “Chuy” Garcia is running for a fourth term in his Biden+46 district, which covers the southwestern Chicago area. He doesn’t have a Republican opponent in November, but first he has to get through Chicago Alderman Raymond Lopez in March. Lopez is a unique politician. He was first elected to the City Council in 2015 and has since become one of the most conservative Democrats on the City Council. From his “tough on crime” rhetoric to his multiple appearances on Fox News to spout his anti-migrant stances, he’s definitely on the conservative side of most hot-button political issues in Chicago today. So why is he running against Garcia, who’s generally one of the most popular politicians in the southside Latino community? Well, he thinks Garcia’s gone too far to the left on issues like the ongoing migrant crisis and the conflict between Israel and Palestine.
Is Lopez’s message actually resonating with voters? If fundraising is anything to go by, then no it’s not. The Alderman has raised a little over $70,000 since he entered the race back in October, while Garcia has raised triple that amount ($245,500) and spent nearly six times as much as Lopez has. Lopez is at a clear financial disadvantage here and is almost certainly a heavy underdog, but Garcia isn’t taking anything for granted and is campaigning like he’s in a competitive race. Regardless, Garcia should be fine, with Lopez probably only getting votes from his ward and maybe some votes from places that weren’t in IL-04 before 2022 (Burbank, Hinsdale, etc.).
RATING: LIKELY GARCIA
(Chicago Tribune)
IL-07 (Democratic Primary):
Is Danny Davis actually in trouble?
Democratic Congressman Danny Davis has served his central/western Chicago-based district since 1996, never facing any real opposition in this staunchly Democratic district (having backed Biden by 73 in 2020). That was until 2022, when progressive activist Kina Collins came within 4,000 votes of unseating the longtime Congressman. Collins is back for another run (her third in total), but joining her & Davis is a surprise third challenger, Chicago City Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin.
Conyears-Ervin was expected to run if Davis decided to retire, which is why it came as a bit of a shock when she launched her campaign after Davis decided to run for another term. She’s racked up some pretty impressive endorsements since her campaign launch back in July, gaining the backing of the powerful Chicago Teachers Union and Chicago Aldermen Jason Taliaferro & Jeanette Taylor. Collins, not to be outdone, has the endorsements of Aldermen Daniel La Spata, Byron Sigcho-Lopez, Angela Clay, and Leni Manaa-Hoppenworth (all four of the most progressive City Council members).
Danny Davis knows that this is probably the biggest threat to his political career, so he’s called in the big guns to back him. Davis has been endorsed by Governor JB Pritzker, the AFL-CIO, and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson. While he’s gotten the Illinois Democratic machine to back him, it still hasn’t helped in the fundraising department, where Conyears-Ervin is leading him and Collins by a substantial amount. Conyears-Ervin may have the fundraising lead, but she’s also been plagued by an ongoing ethics scandal at the Chicago City Treasurer office. Conyears-Ervin allegedly forced her staff there to do her grocery shopping and plan birthday parties, while also forcing BMO Harris Bank to provide a mortgage to her husband/Chicago Alderman Jason Ervin.
There are also two other Democrats running (school teacher Nikhil Bhatia and political aide Kouri Marshall), but neither man has really attracted that much attention. Picking a winner here is a bit of a challenge. Collins & Conyears-Ervin have both run decent campaigns, while Davis has the political machine and incumbency on his side. In the end, I think Davis pulls it out for what I think will be his final term. If he does win and retire after 2024, the 2026 primary will rival the 2022 IL-01 primary in terms of how many candidates will run, I’ll say it now.
RATING: LEAN DAVIS
(Chicago Tribune)
IL-12 (Republican Primary):
What a Trump endorsement does to a competitive primary
Republican Congressman Mike Bost is facing a stiff challenge from the right flank of the Republican Party, specifically former State Senator Darren Bailey. You may remember Bailey from being the Republican nominee for Governor back in 2022. After getting the Trump endorsement and pulling off the huge primary win over the establishment-backed Mayor of Aurora Richard Irvin, Bailey flopped harder than a fish out of water and lost to Governor JB Pritzker by 12 points. Hell, you could probably argue that Bailey’s presence at the top of the ticket hurt suburban Republicans (especially in the legislature, but we’ll talk about that in the next part of the preview). His far-right views may have turned off voters in Chicagoland, but it was right up the alley of downstate voters, who backed him en masse over Pritzker.
That leads us to Bost, who first entered Congress after he flipped an ancestrally Democratic district in 2014. Back then, Bost was seen as a pretty conservative Congressman, with his win being emblematic of how the region was trending. Now though, the right flank of the GOP wants him gone because he’s not a “fighter.” This is the same guy who once stood up on the floor of the Illinois State House and channeled Moses by screaming “LET MY PEOPLE GO!” and throwing papers around in response to a budget negotiation.
When the campaign began, both men practically begged Trump for his endorsement, knowing that it would be a huge boon to their campaigns in this Trump+43 district. After some persuasion from House Speaker Mike Johnson, Trump endorsed Bost, much to Bailey’s chagrin. Now with no Trump endorsement (though he’s backed by Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz) and a financial disadvantage, Darren Bailey seems like he’s in line to lose yet another race.
At least that’s what it looks like on the surface. A recent poll from Republican pollster M3 Strategies showed Bost only leading Bailey 45-39, with 16% undecided. This was taken after Trump endorsed Bost too, which isn’t really that relieving to the Congressman. In the end, I think Bost pulls this win off, but a Darren Bailey win would not surprise me at all.
RATING: LEAN BOST
The Other Congressional Primaries:
These aren’t super competitive, but they’ll be fun to watch nonetheless
IL-01 Republican Primary: The race to be the GOP sacrificial lamb in this Biden+42 district is between law school student Montelle Gaji and postal worker/perennial candidate Marcus Lewis. Neither candidate has reported raising any money, but Gaji’s been backed by the Chicago Tribune. With that limited knowledge, I’d say Gaji is the favorite.
IL-06 Democratic Primary: Democratic incumbent Sean Casten is facing two challengers in his Biden+11 district covering Chicago’s southwest suburbs: progressive activist Mahnoor Ahmad and former Chicago city employee Charles Hughes (who may or may not be connected to Dan Lipinski and Mike Madigan, I’ve been trying to figure that out since he first ran for office back in 2020 against Lipinski and Marie Newman). Neither Hughes or Ahmad have raised that much money and their endorsement games are equally weak. Casten’s the strong favorite to win.
IL-11 Democratic Primary: This is one I debated on whether or not to do a full write-up on, but I ultimately decided just to write about it here. Democratic incumbent Bill Foster is facing a challenge from his left from attorney Qasim Rashid (who you may remember from being the Democratic nominee for VA-01 in 2020). Foster’s been endorsed by pretty much every prominent Illinois Democrat and has a solid financial lead over Rashid. Rashid has some pretty impressive endorsements (the Postal Workers Union and State Senator Rachel Ventura, who ran against Foster in the 2020 primary) and even claimed the endorsement of the local affiliate of the United Auto Workers for a bit before they withdrew it and backed Foster (following the lead of the national United Auto Workers). Foster’s the favorite here, but Rashid’s putting up a strong challenge and I wouldn’t be surprised if Foster was held below 60%.
IL-11 Republican Primary: On the other side of this district, three Republicans are duking it out to find an opponent for Foster/Rashid. Those candidates being businessman Jerry Evans, businesswoman Susan Hathaway-Altman, and attorney Kent Mercado. Evans has the financial lead and has endorsements from several local State Legislators. Hathaway-Altman is further behind in fundraising, but also has a few endorsements from a few State Senators who represent the northern half of the district. Mercado is backed by the Chicago Tribune and that’s really the only thing going for him. Evans is the favorite, but Hathaway-Altman has an outside shot of winning.
IL-12 Democratic Primary: While all the attention is focused on the Republican primary in this district (rightfully so), the Democrats are also holding a primary between attorney Brian Roberts and perennial Libertarian Party candidate Preston Nelson. Roberts has the backing of the AFL-CIO and the Teamsters, while Nelson only became a Democrat recently and even ran for this district as a Republican back in 2018, so Roberts is the heavy favorite.
IL-13 Republican Primary: Two Republicans are running for the right to face Democratic incumbent Nikki Budzinski in this Biden+11 district that stretches from suburban St. Louis to Champaign-Urbana. Those two candidates are law student Thomas Clatterbuck and US Army veteran Joshua Loyd. Neither candidate has raised that much money (less than $15,000 for each) and reports no major endorsements, so it’s a coin flip to see who wins. So let’s say Loyd wins.
IL-14 Republican Primary: Two Republicans are running in this Biden+11 district covering Chicago’s western suburbs/exurbs: Kendall County Republican Party Chairman James Marter and businessman Charlie Kim. Kim has the fundraising lead over Marter, but that’s about it as Marter’s racked up a lot of endorsements from prominent conservatives (Mary Miller and Moms for Liberty are the two biggest examples). Marter should win this, but he’s the heavy underdog in November against Democratic Congresswoman Lauren Underwood.
IL-17 Republican Primary: The Republicans have really struggled to find a good candidate to run against freshman Democratic Congressman Eric Sorensen in this Biden+8 district that stretches from Rockford to Bloomington. After all their top candidates declined/dropped out, they were forced to settle for circuit court judge Joe McGraw. McGraw first has to get through farmer/former union president Scott Crowl, which he should do easily. Him winning against Sorensen though? That’s another story.
(Anthony Vazquez and Ashlee Rezin / Sun-Times)
Cook County State’s Attorney (Democratic Primary):
The race to succeed Kim Foxx
To say the tenure of Democratic Cook County State’s Attorney Kim Foxx has been controversial might be underselling it. Foxx has become a huge target not just for Republicans, but by independents and moderate Democrats for her criminal justice policies. Hell it almost led her to losing both a Democratic primary (to now-Chicago Alderman Bill Conway) and a general election in 2020. Foxx is stepping down this year after a tumultuous final four years that saw her get hit hard by everyone from the local media to then-Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot for a rise in violent crime in the city of Chicago.
Two Democrats are running to replace Foxx: attorney Clayton Harris and appellate court judge Eileen O’Neil Burke. To say this race has been contentious is an understatement. There’s bad blood between these two candidates for sure. While both candidates have promised to crack down on crime, Burke is explicitly running as the more “tough on crime” candidate. She’s even been backed by the Fraternal Order of Police (though she distanced herself from that endorsement, even though she’s pretty much parroting the FOP lines about Kim Foxx). Harris has attacked Burke for prosecuting a 10 year old for murder back in the 90s (which was later overturned by a higher court), while Burke has attacked Harris for being “anti-abortion” because he was part of a company that donated money to anti-abortion Republicans back in 2009, an attack that caused Illinois’s largest women’s health PAC (Personal PAC) to shame the Burke campaign for being misleading. Burke has also attacked Harris for being a “Democratic insider” with ties to Rod Blagojevich (which might stick more considering Harris was Blagojevich’s Chief of Staff for a short time).
On the endorsement side of things, it’s pretty much split along racial lines (with a few exceptions) and ideological lines. Most African-American politicians are backing Harris, with only a few (notably Chicago Aldermen Pat Dowell and Anthony Beale) backing Burke. Progressives are also solidly in Harris’s camp, with IL-09 Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky and Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss backing Harris. White and moderate politicians are heavily backing Burke, with IL-05 Congressman Mike Quigley and most of the moderates on the City Council in her corner. Unions and Hispanics are split between the two camps though. On Harris’s side, he’s backed by IL-04 Congressman Chuy Garcia and unions like the Chicago Teachers Union and the SEIU. On Burke’s side, she’s backed by State Comptroller Susana Mendoza and unions like the Firefighters Union and the IBEW.
Long story short, this one’s a pure tossup. You can make a good argument for both Burke and Harris winning. All I know is expect this race to be skewed on racial lines. Burke’s going to win big in heavily white suburban areas and places like downtown Chicago, while Harris is going to win big in heavily-black areas of Chicago and surrounding communities. I do think Harris is going to squeak by though, thanks to wins with progressive whites in places like Evanston and the north side of Chicago and outrunning Burke among Hispanic voters. So yeah Harris is ever so slight favorite right now in my opinion.
RATING: LEAN HARRIS
(Manuel Martinez/WBEZ)
Cook County Circuit Court Clerk (Democratic Primary):
How an outsider became just another corrupt insider
Four years ago, then-State Senator Iris Martinez won the Cook County Circuit Court Clerk Democratic primary in a bit of an upset. She wasn’t the Democratic Party pick for the job (that belonged to County Review Board Member Michael Cabonargi), but she rode big wins with Hispanic and suburban voters to upset the establishment and win the primary by seven points.
What happened next was a bit chaotic. Martinez, who was never friendly with the county Democratic Party, endorsed a bunch of candidates running against party-backed candidates in 2022. Most of them lost, but it only further fueled the rivalry between the two. Martinez has also been mired in scandal herself, with allegations of accepting money from employees and promoting them because of that running rampant throughout the Circuit Court Clerk office.
This has led the Cook County Democratic Party running Metropolitan Water Reclamation District Board Member Mariyana Spyropoulos against Martinez. Spyropoulos has run a campaign that’s mostly focused on rooting out corruption in the Circuit Court Clerk office and has enjoyed the backing of pretty much the entire Cook County Democratic establishment and most progressive groups. Martinez, on the other hand, is backed by IL-02 Congresswoman Robin Kelly and several Hispanic Chicago Aldermen.
I wouldn’t say Iris Martinez is cooked, but she’s the heavy underdog against Spyropoulos. I would be hard-pressed to find a scenario where Martinez wins, but it’s probably out there, somewhere.
RATING: LIKELY SPYROPOULOS
(Tyler Pasciak LaRiviere/Sun-Times; Jim Vondruska for the Sun-Times)
Illinois State Supreme Court 1st District (Democratic Primary):
Will Illinois elect its first ever Latino Supreme Court Justice?
Appointed State Supreme Court Justice Joy Cunningham made history when she was appointed to the court back in 2022, becoming the first black Democratic woman to serve on the State Supreme Court. Her opponent, appellate court judge Jesse Reyes, could also make history if he unseats Cunningham. If Reyes wins, he’ll become Illinois’s first ever Latino Supreme Court Justice.
This one hasn’t really gotten nasty like the other Cook County primaries, but both candidates have been touting their judicial bonafides over the air. Cunningham’s got the financial lead and is backed by a bunch of local unions and people like the Reverend Jesse Jackson Sr. and IL-09 Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky. Reyes has mostly enjoyed the backing of Hispanic politicians like IL-04 Congressman Chuy Garcia and unions like the Firefighters Union and the IBEW. Cunningham should be the favorite here, though Reyes has a chance if Hispanic turnout is high enough.
RATING: LIKELY CUNNINGHAM
(Colin Boyle/Block Club Chicago)
“Bring Chicago Home” Referendum (Chicago Referendum):
Progressives vs Big Business
When Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson was first running for Mayor, one of his main policy proposals was what he called a “mansion tax.” Essentially, Johnson wanted to increase taxes on property sales over $1 million, which would generate nearly $100 million in revenue yearly. After Johnson took office, the City Council passed the measure, which sent the “mansion tax” to the voters.
That was until circuit court judge Kathleen Burke struck the referendum from the ballot just a few days after early voting started. You see, real estate groups and big business (who are both heavily against the referendum) sued to stop the referendum from appearing on the ballot, questioning the legality of it. Burke agreed with them, but subsequent appeals to the appellate court and the Illinois Supreme Court didn’t and restored the measure to the March ballot.
So what does the referendum do? Well it’s pretty much asking the voters if they’re ok with the City Council passing Johnson’s “mansion tax.” If the voters say yes, then the city council can implement the tax. If the voters say no, then it’s pretty much dead in the water. The “mansion tax” itself would actually cut the real estate transfer tax for properties under $1 million by 20%. On the other hand, it raises the real estate transfer tax for properties over $1 million by up to 400%. All in all, it would generate the city about $100 million annually, which Mayor Johnson hopes to use to build housing and fund services to help treat the homeless population.
Most progressives and local unions back the measure, while most moderates (especially rich ones downtown and on the northside that own property that’s worth over $1 million) and real estate groups are spending heavily to defeat the measure. In perhaps is a sign that the measure is resonating with voters, the real estate groups are trying to make this a referendum on Mayor Johnson himself, asking voters in a recent TV ad if the city’s doing well on things like crime and the migrant crisis and if they don’t think so, they should vote against the referendum.
I actually think this measure will pass. While most of the airtime for the referendum has been against it, the pro-passage side has had a pretty strong ground game, led by some of the same people that propelled Brandon Johnson from a little-known Cook County Commissioner to Mayor of the third biggest city in America. The NO side could still win, but I think YES should have this.
RATING: LEAN YES
And that’s all for the first part of the 2024 Illinois Primary Preview! I’ll be back tomorrow with part two, covering all the interesting primaries for the State Legislature. We have a lot of them, so get ready folks. Until then you can follow me on Twitter/X/whatever Elon’s calling it this week (@Uncrewed) and as always, stay excellent!