Grand Old Primary- August 13th, 2024 (Wisconsin Edition)
Covering all the major Republican primaries in Wisconsin!
GRAND OLD PRIMARY- AUGUST 13th, 2024 (Wisconsin Edition)
INTRO:
Hello everyone and welcome to another exciting edition of Grand Old Primary! If you’re new here, Grand Old Primary is a series where I cover all the most important Republican primaries going on throughout the country. From Congress to the State Legislature to even a few county races, they’re all here folks. We’ve got four states holding primaries today and we already covered Connecticut, Vermont, & Minnesota, so let’s get to our final state, Wisconsin! Let’s get to it!
US Senate:
The Republicans are optimistic they can gain full control of Wisconsin’s US Senate delegation, but they first have to get through US Senator Tammy Baldwin in November. Before that though, they’ll have to nominate a candidate tonight. Three men are running here: businessman Eric Hovde, conservative activist Rejani Raveendran, and construction superintendent Charles Barman.
Hovde is far and away the favorite, pumping in over $13 million of his own money into the race and getting the backing of pretty much every single prominent Wisconsin Republican. I’m mostly just watching to see if Raveendran or Barman attract any protest votes over Hovde’s controversies (the fact that he’s carpetbagging from California, his comments about the elderly voting, etc.), but Hovde will win this one pretty easily regardless.
WI-08 (Northeastern Wisconsin):
After Republican incumbent Mike Gallagher surprisingly announced his retirement and resignation earlier this year, three Republicans jumped into the race to replace him in this solidly Republican district: businessman Tony Wied, former State Senator Roger Roth, and State Senator Andre Jacque.
Wied is running as a conservative outsider, wanting to secure the border, cut spending, and support former President Trump. Roth is running on a similar platform (minus the outsider part), promising to build the wall on the southern border, bring “common sense” to the government, and end “Bidenomics.” Jacque is more of a bombastic culture warrior, touting his opposition to abortion, taxes, and his fighting of RINOs and Democrats in the State Legislature.
Wied has the fundraising lead and (more importantly in a Republican primary), the backing of former President Trump. Roth has slightly trailed Wied in the fundraising department, but has the backing of former Governor Scott Walker and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Finally, Jacque has the backing of US Senator Ted Cruz and several of his colleagues in the State Legislature, but trails Wied and Roth in terms of fundraising.
I think Wied wins this one. That Trump endorsement has been money so far in Congressional primaries this year (outside of CO-05 and SC-03), especially when it comes to elevating little-known candidates to frontrunner status. Let’s take NC-06 this year as an example. Trump endorsed a little-known lobbyist named Addison McDowell in the Republican primary there. McDowell ended up defeating several well-known opponents en route to joining Congress next year. I fully predict Wied does the same thing. Though if he does lose, I think Roth would probably be the winner instead of Jacque.
SD-18 (Appleton/Oshkosh):
Redistricting turned this Fox Valley district from one that backed President Trump by 12 in 2020 into one that would have backed President Biden by eight points in 2020! The Republicans are still hoping to hold on to this one regardless, so two Republicans are running here: doctor Anthony Phillips and businessman Blong Yang.
Phillips is running as a conservative, promising to support law enforcement, promote school choice, and support the unborn. Yang is running on a similar platform, proudly opposing the Green New Deal, supporting law enforcement, and supporting “election integrity.” Phillips has the fundraising advantage over Yang and has most of the establishment support here. As such, he should be favored here over Yang.
SD-20 (Fond du Lac/northern Milwaukee exurbs):
Republican incumbent Dan Feyen is running for reelection in this deeply Republican district, but first he has to get through former State Representative Timothy Ramthun in the primary.
Ramthun, who ran for Governor in 2022 and lost in the primary, was one of Wisconsin’s most prominent election deniers back in 2020. Hell, he even sponsored a resolution in late 2021 that would rescind the certification of the 2020 Presidential Election and “reclaim” the state’s electoral votes. He’s running on a very similar platform this year, supporting “election integrity,” the 2nd Amendment, and “medical freedom.” Feyen is focusing on his conservative record in the Senate, pointing to his “pro-election integrity” votes alongside votes to improve education funding and infrastructure funding.
Feyen is backed by pretty much the entire Wisconsin Republican establishment (most notably Congressmen Glenn Grothman and Scott Fitzgerald), while Ramthun is backed by a bevy of the most far-right election denialists in the country, most notably Michael Flynn and Mike Lindell (the MyPillow guy). Feyen’s institutional support and wide fundraising lead over Ramthun should be enough to get him the win here, but I’m never counting out someone with name recognition and such a far-right platform in a very right-wing district (this district backed Trump by 35 in 2020).
AD-01 (Door/Kewaunee/eastern Brown Counties):
Republican incumbent Joel Kitchens is running for reelection in this solidly Republican district, but first he has to face Kewaunee County Supervisor Milt Swagel in the primary.
Kitchens is running as a normal Republican (save for him claiming to be an expert at knowing what abortions are because he’s also a veterinarian), focusing on improving education standards, attracting workers & tourism to the district, and promoting environmental safety. Swagel is running to his right, running on a platform of cutting spending, curbing illegal immigration, and supporting “election integrity.” Kitchens has lapped Swagel in the fundraising department and if their 2022 matchup is anything to go by, this should be an easy win for Kitchens (who beat Swagel by 55 points that year).
AD-04 (Southern Oconto/northern Brown Counties):
Republican incumbent David Steffen is facing a challenge from farmer Darwin Behnke in this deeply Republican district. Steffen is focused on his record in the legislature of getting conservative legislation passed, while Behnke (who is the father of State Representative Elijah Behnke) is claiming to be the only candidate who stands for “true conservative values.” Well, “true conservative values” must not include raising money to run a competitive race, because Steffen has heavily beaten Behnke in that department. Including the fact that Behnke hasn’t gotten any major endorsements (aside from his son maybe), Steffen should be fine here.
AD-06 (Shawano/Menominee Counties):
Redistricting paired two Republican incumbents together in this deeply Republican district and they’re running against each other. Both State Representatives Elijah Behnke and Peter Schmidt are running for re-election here, but only one can survive.
Ok maybe it’s not that dramatic, but this is a pretty high-profile race between two sitting incumbents. Both have similar right-wing platforms, so we’ll be focusing on who’s backing them and the money flowing into their campaigns. In the endorsement game, Behnke has the definite advantage over Schmidt, being backed by the Shawano County Republican Party and the Shawano County Sheriff. Does it have to do with Schmidt getting censured by the Shawano County GOP before he was even elected for being convicted of choking a worker on his farm? Probably, yes. In fact, the Shawano County GOP was so mad about Schmidt not disclosing that incident (which happened a few years before he was elected), they funded a write-in candidate to face Schmidt and a Democrat in 2022.
Drama aside, Schmidt does have one advantage over Behnke, fundraising. Schmidt has lapped Behnke in that metric. Is it enough to give him the win? Probably not, given that the Republican Party of the largest part of the district is going all in to defeat Schmidt, the non-controversial (save for his support for overturning the 2020 election) Behnke will probably win.
AD-24 (Menomonee Falls/Germantown):
In what has turned out to be Wisconsin’s most premier Republican legislative primary, Republican incumbent Janel Brandtjen is facing a tough challenge from State Senator Dan Knodl in this solidly Republican district. With Knodl drawn out of his State Senate district, he decided to run here in a rematch of the 2023 State Senate primary that elected Knodl to that chamber in the first place. Knodl beat Brandtjen by almost 30 points that time, but things might be different this time around.
Let’s start with Brandtjen, who’s been one of the most right-wing members of the Wisconsin State House since she was first elected back in 2014. She was one of the leading voices on the election denying side following the 2020 Presidential election, saying that “there was no doubt that Donald Trump won Wisconsin. Brandtjen then tried to “de-certify” the 2020 Presidential Election in Wisconsin, which eventually led to State Assembly Speaker Robin Vos stripping Brandtjen of her committee chairmanships. She’s also been in hot water recently for trying to skirt campaign finance laws, which led to the State Ethics Commission recommending felony charges be brought up against her. The Waukesha County DA didn’t pursue those charges, but still not a good look.
This brings us to Knodl, who’s been serving in the State Senate since he won a high-profile special election in April 2023. Knodl’s been a pretty standard Republican, focusing on economic issues, supporting school choice, and supporting law enforcement. That’s not to say Knodl hasn’t kowtowed to the election deniers, because he did sign a letter to then-Vice President Mike Pence in 2021 asking him to delay certifying the election (alongside Brandtjen). He’s being backed by State Assembly Speaker Vos and several other sitting State Representatives. Knodl has also opened up a wide fundraising lead over Brandtjen, so if he’s got the fundraising lead, endorsements from several sitting State Representatives, and has already beat Brandtjen once, does that make him the favorite?
Not necessarily, because former President Trump has endorsed Brandtjen. You can question how effective a Trump endorsement would be in a left-trending, suburban district, but it’s still probably pretty big in the Republican primary. Still though, I think Knodl pulls this one off. I just don’t think Brandtjen’s brand of hard-right bomb-throwing is going to play well when put up against a sitting State Senator whose platform is probably more in tune with the district. That Trump endorsement is big though and might be what saves Brandtjen, but for now, advantage to Knodl.
AD-25 (Manitowoc area):
Republican incumbent Paul Tittl is running for reelection in this solidly Republican district, but first he has to get through former Manitowoc County Supervisor Dave Wage in the primary.
Tittl is running as a right-winger, promising to lower taxes, curb illegal immigration, and support law enforcement. Wage is running on a similar platform, wanting to ban abortion after 12 weeks, cut taxes, and curb illegal immigration. So why is Wage primarying Tittl? Well, Wage says that the district deserves a “fresh voice” after Tittl’s been in office for over a decade. He’s got the fundraising lead too, but Tittl is backed by many conservative-leaning groups. Tittl should be fine here, but that fundraising gap makes me think that Wage isn’t entirely out of it.
AD-27 (Western Sheboygan County):
With Republican incumbent Terry Katsma retiring, two Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: Sheboygan County Supervisor Brian Hilbelink and conservative activist Lindee Brill.
Hilbelink is running as a standard conservative, supporting business growth, shrinking the government, and lowering taxes. Brill is running farther to the right, supporting “election integrity,” opposing abortion, and just general patriotism. Hilbelink has the fundraising lead and the backing of most local elected officials & State Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, so he’ll probably win this one.
AD-28 (Eastern St. Croix County):
Republican incumbent Gae Magnafici is retiring rather than seeking a fourth term in this deeply Republican district, so two Republicans are running to replace her: businessman/former State Representative Rod Kreibich and college student Brady Penfield.
Kreibich is running as a standard right-wing Republican, wanting to cut taxes, cut all stage agency budgets by 10%, and protect “parental rights” in education. Penfield’s running to his right, promising to promote “Christian virtues” and “election integrity.” While Kreibich has the fundraising lead and the backing of State Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, Penfield is backed by several local officials and several conservative grassroots groups. I think Kreibich pulls this out, but a Penfield win would not shock me. It would be pretty impressive too, especially since Penfield is only in his early 20s.
AD-35 (Lincoln/Langlade Counties):
Republican incumbent Calvin Callahan is facing a primary challenge from Langlade County Supervisor Todd Mayr in this deeply Republican district. Mayr is calling himself a “true patriot” and has attacked Callahan for following the will of State Assembly Speaker Robin Vos. Other than that, Mayr hasn’t really raised any money or done much campaigning, so Callahan should be fine.
AD-37 (Northern Dodge County):
Republican incumbent Mark Born is running for reelection in this deeply Republican district, but first he has to get through conservative activist Steve Rydzewski in the primary.
Born is calling himself a “common sense conservative,” wanting to decrease taxes, promote “election integrity,” and supporting welfare cuts. Rydzewski is running hard to his right, promoting numerous election conspiracy theories on his campaign’s Facebook page. Born is backed by numerous local elected officials and has the fundraising lead over Rydzewski (despite Rydzewski trying to self-fund his campaign). Born should be fine here.
AD-43 (Whitewater/northern Rock County):
Despite redistricting turning this district from one that backed President Trump by four points in 2020 into one that would have backed President Biden by nine points in 2020, Republican incumbent Scott Johnson is running again to keep this district in Republican hands. Before Johnson can face a competitive November election, he’ll face US Marine Corps veteran Dylan Kurtz in the primary.
While Johnson is running as a standard Republican (lowering taxes, supporting law enforcement, and wanting to invest in infrastructure), Kurtz is running hard to the right, promoting his support for former President Trump, his opposition to transgender athletes, and his support of the 2nd Amendment. Johnson should be the favorite here, as Kurtz has no major endorsers and is entirely self-funding his campaign (and even then only raising half of what Johnson has raised).
AD-57 (Waushara County area):
Republican incumbent/State Assembly Speaker pro tempore Kevin Petersen is facing a primary challenge from businessman Duane Wilson in this deeply Republican district.
While both men are solid conservatives, Wilson is running a bit to Petersen’s right, attacking the incumbent for not going far enough on restricting abortion, not going far enough on “election integrity” measures (like impeaching the Chairwoman of the Wisconsin Elections Commission), and wanting to ban ballot drop boxes. While Petersen has the fundraising lead and is backed by State Assembly Speaker Vos & the Wisconsin Republican Party, Wilson is backed by the Waupaca County GOP and a few local officials. Petersen should be fine here given the fundraising lead and the incumbency factor (he’s been in office since 2006).
AD-61 (Greenfield/Greendale):
Let’s start by saying this, this district might be the majority-maker for the Democrats in November. It’s a Biden+2 district in a suburban area with a well-funded Democrat running (nonprofit director LuAnn Bird), so they’re eager to flip it. Before the Republicans can even think about November, they have to get Republican incumbent Bob Donovan through tonight’s primary against MMA instructor Martin Gomez. While Gomez is running as a culture warrior (promising to “fight for girls sports,” and vote against red flag gun laws), he’s only raised $400 dollars (all from himself). Donovan should be completely fine here and will start turning his attention to November shortly.
AD-67 (Barron/northern Dunn Counties):
Republican incumbent David Armstrong is running for reelection in this deeply Republican district, but first he has to face conservative activist Jimmy Swenson in the primary.
Swenson is running as a far-right culture warrior, promising to get rid of electronic voting machines & mandate hand-counting election results, fighting against “woke nonsense” and the “trans agenda,” and ending human trafficking (claiming that Armstrong is promoting a form of it). Meanwhile, Armstrong is running on his conservative record in the Assembly and promoting things like rural broadband expansion and some “election integrity” measures. Swenson is backed by a bevy of local Republican Party officials and a slew of election deniers like Timothy Ramthun (remember him?) and Mike Lindell (the MyPillow guy). Armstrong has the wide fundraising lead though and is backed by pretty much all of his Republican colleagues in the legislature. Armstrong should be fine here, but I’m interested to see how much of the vote Swenson gets. If he cracks 30-40%, I would not be shocked considering the demographics of the district (which backed former President Trump by 26 in 2020).
AD-68 (Price County to Chippewa County):
Republican incumbent/Majority Caucus Chairman Rob Summerfield is facing a primary challenge from former Rusk County Supervisor Cliff Taylor in this deeply Republican district.
Summerfield’s been a pretty standard right-winger in the legislature, highlighting his votes to stop “the radical liberal agenda,” “DEI on college campuses,” and his vote to send the Wisconsin National Guard to the southern border. Taylor is running on a similar, if not slightly more right-wing platform, wanting to “protect liberty,” support the 2nd Amendment, and stop the teaching of “LGBTQ ideologies” in schools. Because there’s not too much of a difference between the two and the fact that Summerfield has incumbency & a wide fundraising advantage, he’s the favorite here for sure.
AD-69 (Clark County area):
Republican incumbent Karen Hurd faces a primary challenge from former Abbotsford Mayor Lori Voss in this deeply Republican district. Voss doesn’t seem to be running much of a campaign outside of complaining about the Wisconsin Republican Party backing Hurd. She’s only raised about a tenth of what Hurd has raised and has no major backers, so Hurd will probably win this one.
AD-74 (Northwestern Wisconsin):
Republican incumbent Chanz Green was a rare Republican beneficiary in redistricting, as his old district only backed President Trump by four points in 2020. Now he’s running for reelection in a Trump+17 district, but he first has to get through US Army veteran Scott Harbridge in the primary.
Green is running as a standard Republican, wanting to protect small businesses, support the 2nd Amendment, and promote “parental rights” in education. Harbridge is running hard to his right, calling himself an “America 1st Patriot,” wanting to “bring God back in all aspects of our country,” and get rid of electronic voting machines in favor of hand-counted paper ballots. He’s backed by a slew of the most prominent election deniers (Mike Flynn & Mike Lindell are the biggest ones), but has lagged behind Green in fundraising. Green should be fine here, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Harbridge take a decent chunk of the vote.
AD-75 (Polk/Burnett Counties):
Redistricting left this deeply Republican district without an incumbent, so three Republicans are running here: businessman Duke Tucker, conservative activist Jay Calhoun, and Osceola Village Board member Neil Kline.
Tucker is running as a standard Republican, wanting to attract jobs to the district, promote the 2nd Amendment, and stop illegal immigration. Calhoun is running hard to the right, wanting to get rid of electronic voting machines & use hand-counted paper ballots, stop human trafficking, and promote “pro-God” policies. Kline is running back towards the center, promising to lower taxes, increase “economic prosperity,” and improve education standards.
Tucker has the fundraising lead and the backing of several sitting State Legislators in the area, while Calhoun & Kline are trailing in fundraising (though Calhoun has the backing of the usual election denying suspects like Timothy Ramthun). I’m picking Tucker to win this thanks to his institutional support, but a Calhoun win would not shock me.
AD-86 (Western Marathon/northern Wood Counties):
We’ve got another incumbent vs incumbent Republican primary matchup (thanks to redistricting) and with the added factor of a third non-incumbent candidate! Republican incumbents John Spiros and Donna Rozar are both running here alongside farmer Trine Spindler.
Both Spiros and Rozar are trying to run on their conservative records in the State Assembly, while Spindler is trying to run to the right of both of them (proudly declaring her support for school choice because it allowed her to send her kids to private school instead of public school because of “DEI” reasons & coming out against all forms of “weather-based energy.”). Spiros has the fundraising lead and endorsements from some heavy hitters like former Governor Scott Walker & several Wood County officials.
This should mean he’s the favorite right? Well, not necessarily. Rozar actually has represented more of this district in the past than Spiros does. This chart, provided by Representative Rozar proves my point:
Rozar is coming from District 69, while Spiros is coming from District 86. This means Rozar has represented nearly double the population of the district than Spiros has. That could also be the reason why Spiros is trying to shore up support in Wood County, as that’s where most of Rozar’s population advantage comes from. It’s pretty much a 50/50 toss-up between the two because of this discrepancy, but I think I’ll go with Spiros to narrowly pull out a win. That fundraising advantage & institutional support will outweigh the redistricting factors in my opinion.
AD-87 (Eastern Marathon County area):
With Republican incumbent James Edming retiring, two Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: Marathon County Supervisor Brent Jacobson and school board member Cory Sillars.
Both Jacobson and Sillars are running on similarly conservative platforms (pro-”election integrity,” pro-2nd Amendment, and pro-lowering taxes), though Jacobson has some more culture war language sprinkled in (promising to eliminate “woke ideologies” in schools). Jacobson has the fundraising lead over Sillars and the backing of State Assembly Speaker Vos & most sitting Republican legislators. Because of that, I think Jacobson will pull out the win, though Sillars’s fundraising does give me some slight pause.
AD-88 (Eastern Green Bay suburbs):
The Wisconsin Republicans need to win this district in November in order to keep their Assembly majority. It’s a district that backed President Trump by one point in 2020, but it’s been trending to the left. Combine that with the fact that Republican incumbent John Macco is retiring leaves the Democrats with a juicy flip opportunity.
Before the Republicans can get to November, they have to nominate a candidate in August. They’ll pick between two people: businessman Ben Franklin and US Navy veteran Phil Collins. Franklin is running as a normal Republican, promoting economic & infrastructure development, supporting law enforcement, and increasing healthcare accessibility. Collins is running further to his right, but he’s only raised a little over $100 for his campaign. Combine that with the fact that the entire Wisconsin Republican establishment (including Assembly Speaker Vos) is backing Franklin makes Franklin the huge favorite here. Collins really needs that “Invisible Touch” in order to get a win or else he’ll be saying “That’s All” tonight. Something something In The Air Tonight something something.
AD-98 (Southern Washington County):
Redistricting left this deeply Republican district without an incumbent, so two Republicans are running here: businessman Jim Piwowarczyk and former State Representative Don Pridemore.
Piwowarczyk is running as a far-right culture warrior, wanting to end birthright citizenship, abolish the Wisconsin Election Commission, and oppose any forms of gender-affirming care for minors. Pridemore is running on a similar platform, opposing common core standards in education, opposing abortion, and expanding voter ID. Piwowarczyk is backed by pretty much every single Washington County Republican official and has a huge fundraising lead over Pridemore. He’s been a darling of the Wisconsin right-wing media sphere, so he’s got the conservative grassroot groups on his side too. He’s got a fundraising lead, institutional support, and grassroots support, Piwowarczyk should win this easily.
AD-99 (Northern Waukesha/southern Dodge Counties):
Republican incumbent Barbara Dittrich is running for reelection in this deeply Republican district, but first she has to get through Hartland Village President Jeff Pfannerstill in the primary.
Dittrich is running on her right-wing record in the Assembly (introducing bills to oppose transgender athletes, promote school choice, and prohibit abortion). Pfannerstill is running on a more vague platform, mostly touting his accomplishments as Hartland Village President. With Dittrich being backed by a bevy of elected officials (including WI-05 Congressman Scott Fitzgerald) and her having a wide fundraising lead, she’ll probably win this one.
And that’s all for this edition of Grand Old Primary! Before I go, for the sake of transparency, let’s go over how I did in last week’s primaries:
KANSAS- 29 RACES PREDICTED, 25 CORRECT (Missed SD-01, SD-34, HD-65 (that AI-generated marlin picture really did get him the win), and HD-102)
(86% CORRECT)
MICHIGAN- 33 RACES PREDICTED, 29 CORRECT (Missed HD-27, HD-50, HD-51, & HD-61)
(88% CORRECT)
MISSOURI- 55 RACES PREDICTED, 39 CORRECT (Missed Governor, SD-11, SD-23, SD-33, HD-33, HD-51, HD-64, HD-108, HD-111, HD-117, HD-123, HD-141, HD-144, HD-145, HD-153, & HD-154)
(71% CORRECT)
WASHINGTON- 18 RACES PREDICTED, 10 CORRECT (Missed WA-04, SD-04, HD-02 (2nd Position), HD-04 (2nd Position), HD-07 (2nd Position), HD-18 (2nd Position), & HD-26 (2nd Position))
(55% CORRECT)
HAWAII- 4 RACES PREDICTED, 4 CORRECT
(100% CORRECT)
Really proud of Kansas and Michigan, less than thrilled about Missouri, I need to do better when it comes to predicting top-two primaries, and Hawaii was nice. I’ll be back next Tuesday to cover all the Republican primaries in Florida & Wyoming (because Alaska’s top four primaries are too complicated for a newsletter like this), so until then, you can follow me on Twitter at @Uncrewed and don’t forget to stay awesome!