Grand Old Primary- August 20th, 2024 (Florida Edition)
Covering all the major Republican primaries in Florida!
GRAND OLD PRIMARY- AUGUST 20th, 2024 (Florida Edition)
INTRO:
Hello everyone and welcome to another exciting edition of Grand Old Primary! If you’re new here, Grand Old Primary is a series where I cover all the most important Republican primaries going on throughout the country. From Congress to the State Legislature to even a few county races, they’re all here folks. We’ve got three states holding primaries tonight, but with Alaska’s top-four primaries allowing four winners (which means that every district pretty much is set for November), we’re only covering two states today: Florida & Wyoming. We’ll start with the big one, Florida! Let’s get to it!
US Senate:
Republican incumbent/former Governor/man who has been compared to Voldemort more times than any one man should ever be compared to Rick Scott is running for reelection, but first he has to face two opponents (attorney Keith Gross and actor John Columbus) in order to make it to November.
While Columbus is running as a centrist, he hasn’t raised much money, so the focus will be on Gross. Gross is mostly running to Scott’s right (though he has criticized Scott’s proposals to “sunset” social security and medicare), opposing illegal immigration, promising to fight for free speech on campuses & social media, and promoting “freedom from indoctrination.” He’s mostly running as an anti-establishment conservative, which did earn him the backing of the Republican Liberty Caucus (the old Ron Paul group). He’s also pumped over $2 million of his own money into the campaign, so does this make him a serious threat? No, not really. Scott’s raised almost $30 million (a little under half comprised of his own money) and has the backing of nearly every single Republican politician you can think of (chief among them former President Trump). Scott will win this, but it’ll be interesting to see if Gross takes any protest votes.
FL-01 (Pensacola area):
There’s a reason why I add an (ick) whenever I mention Congressman Matt Gaetz (ick), because the dude is just slimy. Ever since he was first elected to Congress back in 2016, he’s been one of the most far-right House Republicans. From inviting an alt right Holocaust denier to one of Trump’s State of the Union Addresses to hiring a man with ties to white nationalists as a speechwriter to trying to overturn the 2020 election, Gaetz (ick) has done it all. And that’s not even getting into his numerous ethics complaints. Those range from Gaetz (ick) using taxpayer funds to rent offices from associates below the market value to allegedly trafficking 17-year old girls for sex (what a coincidence he’s always voted against anti-human trafficking measures in the House), he’s a massive P.O.S.
Did that earn him this primary challenge? Not necessarily. Gaetz (ick) being a thorn in the side of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy probably earned it. Gaetz (ick) was the one who introduced the motion to vacate the Speakership back in October. That ended with McCarthy losing his job as Speaker and plotting a revenge tour to take out the ones that took him out. It’s gone terribly so far (not taking out anyone yet), but McCarthy is hoping US Navy veteran Aaron Dimmock will be his first winner.
Dimmock is running as your standard right-wing Republican (opposing abortion, wanting to complete “President Trump’s Wall,” and defend the 2nd Amendment), but he comes without any of the baggage that Gaetz (ick) has. Will that matter to voters in this deeply Republican seat? Probably not. Gaetz (ick) has the wide fundraising lead over Dimmock and the backing of former President Trump. The one poll we have of this race (which is from a Gaetz (ick) internal) shows Gaetz (ick) with a 67-20 lead over Dimmock. I don’t think it will be that big of a landslide, but Dimmock is definitely facing an uphill battle. Despite what morally should happen, Gaetz (ick) is probably going to win this. Now if you need me, I need to wash my mouth out after mentioning Matt Gaetz (ick) so many times.
FL-02 (Florida Panhandle):
Republican incumbent Neal Dunn is running for reelection in this solidly Republican seat, but he first has to face former school principal Rhonda Woodward in the primary. Woodward is calling for an end of “weak conservatives” and calls herself a “bold, unapologetic, never-compromising conservative leader.” The chest-beating is nice and all, but Dunn has massively outpaced her in fundraising and has the backing of former President Trump & Governor Ron DeSantis, so Dunn should win this easily.
FL-03 (Gainesville/Ocala area):
Republican incumbent Kat Cammack faces a challenge from real estate agent Alec Stevens in this solidly Republican district. Stevens has said that this primary will not be a referendum on Cammack, but instead it’s his “God-given duty” to run. Either way, Stevens has raised little to no money and Cammack enjoys a wide fundraising lead & the backing of former President Trump, so she’ll be fine here.
FL-05 (Suburban Jacksonville):
Republican incumbent John Rutherford is running for reelection in this deeply Republican district, but first he has to face conservative activist Mara Macie in a primary. This is a rematch of their 2022 primary (where Rutherford beat Macie and another opponent by nearly 50 points). Macie’s attacking Rutherford as part of the establishment, but she hasn’t raised much money. That’s especially true when you compare her haul to Rutherford, who also has wide institutional support (including the backing of former President Trump). Rutherford should win this easily.
FL-06 (Northeastern Florida):
Republican incumbent Michael Waltz has bigger dreams than representing this deeply Republican district. He’s openly flirting with running for Governor in 2026 to replace the man he replaced in Congress (Ron DeSantis), but he’s still here for now. He’s facing tech professional John Grow in the primary tonight. Grow’s running on a standard right-wing platform (pro-securing the border, pro-”election integrity,” and pro-Trump), but the money and institutional support are just not there for him. Waltz (who is backed by former President Trump) will win this easily to set up one more run for Congress before a probable statewide bid in 2026.
FL-07 (Seminole/southern Volusia Counties):
You could argue that Republican incumbent Cory Mills is only in Congress because of gerrymandering and I will argue that. Redistricting shifted the old FL-07 from a suburban Orlando seat that easily backed President Biden to a more exurban seat that backed President Trump in 2020. He’s been a very right-wing member of Congress since he was elected in 2022, so it’s kind of surprising that his primary challenger, conservative activist Mike Johnson (no relation to the House Speaker) is also running as a hard right-winger.
Johnson wants to “stop CRT in schools,” “secure elections,” and (in all caps) “FIGHT RADICAL DEMOCRAT AGENDAS.” Again, this is a primary you’d expect to see in a Trump+80 seat in rural Mississippi, not a Trump+6 seat in exurban Orlando. Anyway, Mills should be fine here (Johnson hasn’t raised much money and Mills is backed by former President Trump), but it’s just weird to see two hard-right candidates in such a potentially competitive seat.
FL-08 (Brevard/Indian River Counties):
Republican incumbent Bill Posey surprisingly announced his retirement near the closing of the filing deadline, so only three candidates are running to replace him in this solidly Republican district: former State Senator Mike Haridopolos, businessman John Heaton, and attorney Joe Babits.
Haridopolos is running as a standard right-wing Republican with some local issues mixed into his platform (he’s anti-illegal immigration, pro-balancing the budget, and pro-space funding as NASA’s Cape Canaveral is in this district). Hearton is running on a similar platform, but I will give him credit for actually listing bills he wants to pass instead of just vaguely saying “I’m anti-illegal immigration!” (such examples as the America First Border Protection Act, Fairness in Elections Act, and the One-Bill-One-Issue Act, all having detailed provisions in them) Finally, Babits is running on “draining the swamp” by massively decreasing Congressional salaries and limiting Congressional terms to just two.
When Posey announced his retirement, the entire Florida Republican establishment immediately lined up behind Haridopolos (who was also State Senate President nearly a decade ago). From former President Trump to Governor DeSantis to retiring Congressman Posey, they’re all in Haridopolos’s corner. Combine that with a massive fundraising lead means Haridopolos should win this easily.
FL-11 (The Villages to suburban Orlando):
Republican incumbent Dan Webster barely survived a challenge from the far-right in 2022, only winning by seven points in this deeply Republican district. It initially seemed like he’d get a similar far-right challenge this year from former State Representative Anthony Sabatini, but Sabatini dropped out after Webster got an endorsement from former President Trump.
Now Webster only faces geophysicist John McCloy in the primary. McCloy is running a campaign centered around energy. He wants to expand production of renewable (and non-renewable) energy, protect local resources, and even has a section of his platform dedicated to autism awareness. Despite the interesting platform, Webster has a wide fundraising lead (and the aforementioned Trump endorsement), so he should be fine here.
FL-12 (Pasco/Hernando/Citrus Counties):
Republican incumbent Gus Bilirakis is facing a primary challenge from conservative activist Hank Dunlap in this deeply Republican district. Despite Dunlap trying to run as an outsider/culture warrior (wanting to get rid of DEI, deport every single illegal immigrant, and dissolve the FBI), he’s raised little cash. Bilirakis’s incumbency, wide fundraising lead, and institutional support (he’s backed by former President Trump) all mean that he’s set for another two years in Washington.
FL-15 (Eastern Tampa suburbs):
Republican incumbent Laurel Lee initially looked like she would get a serious primary challenge in this Republican-leaning district after former President Trump called for a primary challenge to her back in March. Whether that was because she endorsed Governor DeSantis in the Republican Presidential Primary will never be known as Trump eventually endorsed Lee a few months ago.
Despite that, she’s still facing two opponents in the primary: US Coast Guard veteran James Judge and attorney Jennifer Barbosa. Both Judge & Barbosa are running hard to Lee’s right, with Judge wanting to put a moratorium on legal immigration, remove all forms of early voting, and “restore” the nuclear family. Barbosa isn’t running on much, but says that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump, January 6th rioters were “unfairly” prosecuted, and that COVID lockdowns were “scams.” Lee should be the favorite though, as she has a wide fundraising lead (and the aforementioned Trump endorsement). A Judge or Barbosa win would make this district really competitive in November, but it probably won’t happen.
FL-16 (Manatee/southern Hillsborough Counties):
Republican incumbent Vern Buchanan is squaring off with private school founder Eddie Speir in this solidly Republican district.
Speier is running hard to Buchanan’s right, attacking the incumbent for being “weak” on border security and voting for a few bills that would keep America in the Paris Accords. Outside of attacking Buchanan, Speir is running on a platform of “America First” policies, dismantling “bureaucratic cancer,” and supporting “medical freedom” (it’s just complaining about COVID-19 mandates and wanting to defund the CDC). Speir has pumped nearly half a million dollars of his own money into this one, but Buchanan has still lapped him in fundraising and has the backing of former President Trump. Buchanan should be fine here, but Speir getting some protest votes wouldn’t surprise me.
FL-21 (St. Lucie/Martin/northern Palm Beach Counties):
Republican incumbent Brian Mast faces a challenge from far-right conspiracy theorist Rick Wiles in this solidly Republican district.
Wiles is a raging anti-Semite who has shared numerous conspiracy theories about Jews wanting to kill Christians. Hell, he even launched his primary challenge on Mast by attacking Mast for supporting Israel and wearing an IDF uniform on the floor of the House (Mast volunteered with the IDF back in 2015). He’s not anti-Israel in the “I can’t support a country that’s invading their neighbor” way, he’s anti-Israel in the fully anti-Semitic hatred way. Mast will win this one easily as he’s backed by former President Trump and has a wide fundraising advantage. Any amount of votes that Wiles gets will be too high, plain and simple.
FL-26 (Eastern Collier County/western Miami):
Republican incumbent Mario Diaz-Balart (and the rest of his family I guess) have been an established force in Cuban-American Republican politics in Miami for decades now. That hasn’t stopped two opponents from stepping up to face him in this deeply Republican district: conservative activist Johnny Fratto and accountant Rich Evans. (no not the Rich Evans from Red Letter Media)
Fratto is running hard to the right of Diaz-Balart, questioning the validity of climate change, wanting to abolish the federal reserve, and supporting “state sovereignty.” He’s even got a button on his website to donate money to his campaign in cryptocurrency! Evans, on the other hand, is running as a more normal Republican, wanting to balance the budget, oppose abortion, and support the Cuban community in the district. Diaz-Balart will probably win this one, mostly thanks to a huge fundraising lead and heavy institutional support (most notably former President Trump in his corner).
FL-27 (Southern Miami):
Republican incumbent Maria Elvira Salazar is facing a challenge from accountant Royland Lara in this Republican-leaning district. Lara is running far to Salazar’s right (wanting to “protect children” from “left-wing insanity” and attacking RINOs), but he hasn’t raised any money. Combine that with Salazar’s major institutional support (most notably the backing of former President Trump), means Salazar will win this one easily.
SD-07 (Northeastern Florida):
With Republican incumbent Travis Hutson term-limited in this deeply Republican district, three men have stepped up to replace him: State Representative Tom Leek, former St. Johns County Sheriff David Shoar, and former professional golfer Gerry James,
On paper, Leek seems like the easy favorite. He’s got a wide fundraising lead over Shoar & James, the backing of Governor DeSantis & US Senator Rick Scott, and general name recognition from serving in the State House. He’s also got the conservative bonafides, supporting school choice, law enforcement, and “election integrity.” All of that and yet he’s in the fight of his political life against Shoar. Why is that?
Because Shoar is endorsed by former President Trump, that’s why! Shoar only got into the race in June, but made a big impression when former President Trump endorsed him earlier this month. Combine that with plenty of outside spending (which to be fair has been matched by Leek), means that Shoar is neck and neck with Leek. Oh and in case you were wondering why Trump endorsed Shoar over the popular Leek, it’s because Leek endorsed Governor DeSantis for President over Trump in the 2024 Republican Presidential Primaries. It’s not that blatant, but it’s pretty obvious once you look into it. Anyway, Shoar is not a conservative slouch either, mostly stressing his law enforcement background as to why voters should pick him.
Where does that leave James? James (who also used to moonlight as a professional wrestler) ran for this seat against retiring Senator Hutson in 2022 and only lost by 12 points. He’s probably the most right-wing candidate here, supporting the 2nd Amendment, “medical and parental freedom,” and opposing the “two-tier justice system” (it’s just complaining about Donald Trump and his associates being found guilty of crimes). He’s backed by people like Sarah Palin, washed-up actor Kevin Sorbo, and the damn MyPillow Guy Mike Lindell. He is lagging behind in fundraising, but the residual name recognition from 2022 keeps him in it.
It’s pretty much a pure toss-up between Leek and Shoar here. Between the barrages of money and the Trump vs DeSantis dueling endorsements, it’s pretty much 50/50. If I had to guess (and I have to on Grand Old Primary, that’s the rule), I’d say Leek narrowly pulls this one out. His institutional support and fundraising advantage just beats out Shoar’s Trump endorsement here. Combine that with the presence of James (who is from St. Johns County) taking votes from Shoar’s geographic base, it makes me think Leek pulls this out. I also just want to put into perspective how much money has flown into TV ads in this race, over $13 million to be precise. If that was a Congressional primary, it would be the fourth highest in the country this year (behind the two AIPAC vs Squad primaries and the Bob Good primary in VA-05)!
SD-13 (Lake/western Orange Counties):
With Republican incumbent Dennis Baxley term-limited, we’ve got three Republicans running to replace him in this solidly Republican district: State Representative Keith Truenow, businessman Bowen Kou, and businesswoman CJ Blancett.
Let’s get this out of the way, this one is not going to be decided because of policy differences. All three candidates are rock solid conservatives with no real differences outside of Blancett maybe being the most bombastic of the three. No, where this really gets ugly is when you look at who’s backing Truenow (and how they’re attacking Kou). You see, Truenow is backed by the Republican Senate Campaign Committee. They want to see a State Representative transition to the State Senate, so they’re throwing their weight behind Truenow. All well and good right? Wrong.
That’s where Bowen Kou comes in. Kou, a grocery store magnate, is running as an outsider and has plopped down over a million dollars of his own money to help him win the primary. This has massively frightened the Republican Senate leadership, who have responded by sending out some pretty racist attack mailers against Kou. They’ve implied that Kou (who is Chinese-American) is somehow linked to the ruling Chinese Communist Party because he has a lot of Asian donors. Outside of that sinophobia, they’ve also attacked Kou for using foreign workers and accepting government bailouts. Hell, Kou has even claimed that Truenow approached him at a recent County Fair and said that he “didn’t belong in this country.” Truenow, of course, denies this, but Ku eventually ended up launching a lawsuit against the Republican Senate Campaign Committee for the mailers and recent attack ads.
This has been a nasty nasty nasty campaign to say the least, but we do have to pick a winner here. Will Truenow’s ugly campaigning and institutional support win out? Or will Kou’s self-funding and outsider imaging give him the win? It won’t be Blancett, considering she hasn’t raised much money and has little to no institutional support. So, who will win it, Kou or Truenow? It’s really 50/50, but I’m going with Truenow. I just think these racist attacks are working sadly enough. Combine that with Truenow’s institutional support and I think that leads to a narrow Truenow win. I think though if you want decency to win, you’d want Kou to win, but for now, Truenow is the slight favorite.
SD-19 (Brevard County):
Republican incumbent Debbie Mayfield is term-limited (and running for State House), so two Republicans are running to replace her in this solidly Republican district: State Representative Randy Fine and businessman Chuck Sheridan.
Fine (a hard right-winger who was one of the most right-wing State Representatives in recent years) should be heavily favored here considering he’s got the institutional support (including the backing of former President Trump), a huge fundraising lead, and the fact that the biggest thing to come out of this election involving Sheridan is that he’s eschewing yard signs because they’re a “waste of resources.” That doesn’t sound like a winning candidate at all, this should be an easy win for Fine.
SD-21 (Northern Pinellas/western Pasco Counties):
Republican incumbent Ed Hooper is the only Republican Senator to face a primary challenge this year. He’ll face US Navy veteran John Siamas in the Republican primary for this solidly Republican district.
Siamas is entirely self-funding his campaign and pledging to donate his salary if he gets elected. He’s also eschewing culture war issues entirely, wanting instead to focus on rising insurance costs, holding Homeowners Associations accountable, and have the state of Florida adopt an official cryptocurrency. Weirdly enough out of all three of those things, I feel like the Florida Republicans are most likely to do the official cryptocurrency thing. Anyway, Hooper should be fine here thanks to having a wide fundraising lead and the power of incumbency.
HD-18 (Northern St. Johns County):
With Republican incumbent Cyndi Stevenson term-limited, two Republicans are running to replace her in this deeply Republican district: attorney Nick Primrose and conservative activist Kim Kendall.
Primrose is running as a standard Republican, supporting law enforcement, opposing illegal immigration, and supporting school choice. Kendall’s running a fair bit to his right, supporting defending “Judeo-Christian values” and promising to fight against “children being given puberty blockers” and “boys playing girls sports.” Whoever wants to tell Kendall that Florida’s already banned both, please be my guest. Anyway, Primrose has the fundraising lead and heavy institutional support (including the backing of Governor DeSantis, US Senator Rick Scott, and term-limited Representative Stevenson), though Kendall does have the backing of the St. Johns County Republican Party. Primrose should be the favorite here, but I’m not going to count out the more bombastic Kendall, especially in a district that backed former President Trump by over 30 in 2020.
HD-19 (Flagler/southern St. Johns Counties):
Republican incumbent/State House Speaker Paul Renner is term-limited, so two men are running to replace him in this solidly Republican district: US Navy veteran Sam Greco and political aide Darryl Boyer.
Both candidates are running on similar platforms, with Greco promising to “fight back against liberals” who want to “kill” the American Dream and Boyer proudly stating his support for Governor DeSantis’s legislative agenda. Despite the support for Governor, DeSantis has not repaid the favor and has instead endorsed Greco. Most of the major Republican players in Florida have also endorsed Greco, including US Senator Marco Rubio and several sitting State Legislators. He’s also got the wide fundraising lead over Boyer, but Boyer does have the backing of several local elected officials and former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. Greco should be fine here considering the institutional support and financial advantage.
HD-20 (Putnam County area):
Two Republicans are running to replace term-limited Republican incumbent Bobby Payne in this deeply Republican district: businessman Judson Sapp and Welaka Mayor Jamie Watts.
Sapp, who ran for FL-03 in 2018 & 2020, is running on a vaguely right-wing platform (calling himself a “Trump Republican” and an “America First Conservative” who will “never back down.), while Watts is running as a more culture war focused conservative (opposing abortion, transgender issues, and protecting the “enviroment,” his misspelling not mine). Sapp has the wide fundraising lead and the backing of several influential Republican politicians in the area (most notably Congressmen John Rutherford and Aaron Bean). Watts has none of that, but he does have a pretty shady past. In 2011, 2017, and 2019, Watts was accused of harassment and stalking his ex-wife and ex-girlfriend. I think that, combined with Sapp’s institutional support/fundraising lead, means that Sapp is the heavy favorite here.
HD-22 (Western Gainesville to Levy County):
Republican incumbent Chuck Clemons is term-limited from running again in this Republican-leaning seat, so two candidates are running to replace him: former Alachua County Commissioner Raemi Eagle-Glenn and former Levy County Commissioner Chad Johnson.
Eagle-Glenn is running as a standard right-winger, supporting “parental rights” in education, upholding “law and order,” and supporting the 2nd Amendment. Johnson is incorporating more of the culture war into his platform, highlighting his opposition to President Biden & “woke liberals” in Congress, calling out “liberals” who use schools to “push an agenda,” and attacking “liberal policy groups” who attack private property rights. Do you think Johnson hears the word “liberal” in his nightmares because he uses it so much?
Anyway, Johnson is backed by term-limited Representative Clemons, State Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, and the Associated Industries of Florida (who call him Chad “Cracker” Johnson for some reason). Meanwhile, Eagle-Glenn is trying to stress her connections to Governor DeSantis (who appointed her to the Alachua County Commission), but the Governor has stayed neutral in the race. It’s a bit desperate honestly, especially considering her fundraising has been lagging behind Johnson. As for who wins, it’ll probably be Johnson, as his institutional support should be enough to push him over the finish line.
HD-26 (Northern Lake County):
With Republican incumbent Keith Truenow running for State Senate, four Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: businessman Mike Levine, former Eustis City Commissioner Nan Cobb, real estate broker Addie Owens, and conservative activist Keith Farner.
Levine, Cobb, & Owens are running as hard-right Republicans (with Levine promising to “end the woke agenda,” Cobb promising to stand with former President Trump to “Put America First,” and Owens saying that she’ll fight back against “the left’s radical agenda.), while Farner is focusing more on his experience filing lawsuits to protect wetlands. Levine has the fundraising advantage (thanks to self-funding) and has the backing of Lake County Republican Party Chairman Anthony Sabatini. Cobb has trailed behind in fundraising, but has the backing of the Lake County Sheriff and the Lake County firefighters union. Owens has lagged behind the pack in fundraising, but she does have some support from the Florida Realtors PAC. Finally, Farner hasn’t raised much money at all and has no institutional support.
This one probably comes down to Levine and Cobb. I’m more inclined to lean this towards Cobb though, especially after what recently came out from Levine’s past. That being the fact that nearly 20 years ago, Levine was arrested for threatening to kill and allegedly beating his ex-girlfriend. When the police arrived, they found Levine’s ex-girlfriend with marks on both sides of her neck and arrested Levine. The case was later dropped by prosecutors and Levine has refused to talk about it, but it’s a very serious incident that raises a lot of concerns about Levine. Because of that (and Cobb getting some decently high-profile backers), I think Cobb narrowly pulls this one out.
HD-27 (Western Volusia/eastern Marion Counties):
Republican incumbent Stan McClain is term-limited, so three Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: attorney Richard Gentry, businessman Steve Shives, and former police officer Beckie Sirolli.
Gentry’s probably the most normal Republican here (though he still has the culture war sprinkled into his campaign), supporting lowering insurance costs, stopping “woke indoctrination,” and supporting “election integrity.” Shives is probably the most far-right of the three, promising to stand up to the “woke mob” and bemoans the idea that “a small percentage of the population now influences the media, federal, and local governments.” Now if your mind went immediately to “is he being anti-Semitic?” then we’re on the same page here. Combine that with his complaining that America is “moving away from God” and it’s setting off some alarm bells in my head. Anyway, Sirolli is running on a platform of increased government transparency, supporting law enforcement, and stopping “indoctrination” in schools.
Gentry is backed by several local county sheriffs and several conservative-leaning industry groups. He’s also got a pretty decent fundraising lead over Shives, who’s mostly keeping his campaign afloat by self-funding (though he did recently get in hot water for accepting money from a PAC that exclusively endorses men competing against women in elections). Finally, Sirolli hasn’t really raised that much money and her institutional support is similarly barren. Gentry should be able to win this (given his institutional support and fundraising advantage), but a Shives win in such a deeply Republican district (Trump+32 in 2020) should not be out of the question.
HD-32 (Central Brevard County):
Republican incumbent Thad Altman is term-limited, so two heavyweight Republicans are running to replace him in this solidly Republican district: State Senator Debbie Mayfield and former FL-15 Congressman Dave Weldon.
Yeah this is kind of crazy having two high-profile candidates running for a State House seat. Anyway, Mayfield’s running on her record from the past eight years of serving in the State Senate, from protecting local natural resources to protecting “parental rights” in education. Weldon, who served in Congress from 1994 to 2008, is running more to her right, opposing “CRT indoctrination” in schools, supporting the 2nd Amendment, and opposing “big tech.” Mayfield leads Weldon in fundraising and has the backing of former President Trump, State Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, & several conservative-leaning industry groups. While Weldon trails in fundraising, he does have the backing of FL-08 Congressman Bill Posey and several local Brevard County officials.
Quick tangent here, there’s probably a few reasons why this has become kind of heated (with Weldon attacking Mayfield for jumping to the State House immediately from the State Senate, calling it an attempted skirting of Florida’s term limit laws) and it has everything to do with Congressman Posey. Mayfield was thinking about running for FL-08 when Posey retired, but Posey repeatedly told her that he wasn’t going to retire this year. Then he retired at the last second to install his preferred successor (Mike Haridopolos from earlier), leaving Mayfield totally blindsided. Combine that with him backing Weldon (who he succeeded in Congress) and you can see why this has gotten a bit messy. Either way, we have to pick a winner and I think it’ll be Mayfield. The Trump endorsement, fundraising lead, and name recognition (she’s represented this area from one form or another since Weldon left Congress in 2008) should be enough to push her over the finish line. I’m not counting out Weldon though, as his Brevard County connections do give me some pause.
HD-33 (Southern Brevard County):
With Republican incumbent Randy Fine term-limited (and running for State Senate), four Republicans are running to replace him in this Republican-leaning district: Moms for Liberty board member Monique Miller, businesswoman Erika Orriss, businessman Mike Limongello, and nonprofit director Logan Luse.
As is expected for a prominent official in Moms for Liberty, Monique Miller is a far-right culture warrior, promising to fight against President Biden’s “woke agenda,” stop illegal immigration, and keep boys out of girls sports. Orriss is running a more normal Republican campaign, focusing on lowering taxes, protecting “parental rights” in education, and protecting local natural resources. Limongello is calling himself an “outsider” and says he’ll “fight for freedom” against “Big Government, Big Tech, and Leftist Ideology.” Finally, Luse is running as a pretty generic Republican, supporting economic growth, the 2nd Amendment, and protecting local natural resources.
Miller has the fundraising lead and the backing of several local Brevard County officials (including term-limited Representative Fine). Orriss is right behind Miller in fundraising, but her endorsements leave a bit to be desired (a few local city officials mostly). Limongello and Luse have lagged behind both in fundraising, but both boast some pretty impressive endorsements (most notably the Police Benevolent Association for Limongello and several sitting Florida State Legislators for Luse). As for who wins, I’m leaning towards Miller. Her conservative bonafides, financial support, and strong local backing should be enough to get her through the primary against a split field. Does nominating such a right-wing candidate open the door for a potential Democratic upset in November? I lean towards no, but it’s going to be interesting to watch (the district only backed former President Trump by six points in 2020).
HD-35 (Eastern Orange/Osceola Counties):
In the only Democratic-held seat on this list that Florida Republicans are trying to flip (after losing it in a special election earlier this year), two Republicans are vying for the nomination to face Democratic incumbent Tom Keen in this Democratic-leaning district: school board member Erika Booth and realtor Laura Gomez McAdams.
Booth, who lost to Keen in the aforementioned special election, is running on the same platform that lost her this seat in the first place (lowering taxes, supporting Governor DeSantis, supporting “parental rights” in education). McAdams, on the other hand, has tried to point to Booth’s special election loss as the reason why she should be the nominee instead of Booth (and also supporting right-wing policies like school choice and deporting illegal immigrants). Despite the special election loss, Booth still has the fundraising lead over McAdams and has the backing of Governor DeSantis. Because of that (and residual name recognition from the special election), I think Booth wins this one.
HD-48 (Eastern Polk County):
With Republican incumbent Sam Killebrew term-limited, an astounding SIX different candidates are running to replace him in this solidly Republican district: attorney Chad Davis, businessman Jerry Carter, attorney Amilee Stuckey, Frostproof Mayor Jon Albert, conservative activist Debbie Owens, and psychologist Benny Valentin.
Davis is running as a standard Republican, supporting “parental rights” in education, lowering taxes, and driving insurance costs down. Carter is running on a law enforcement-focused platform alongside opposing abortion and supporting school choice. Stuckey is highlighting her military background (she served in the US Marine Corps) and says that she supports Governor DeSantis trafficking migrants to liberal states. Albert is running on a platform opposing illegal immigration, cutting taxes, and supporting “election integrity.” Owens is calling herself a “constitutional conservative” and wants to push back against the federal government (alongside other weird proposals like not having seniors pay taxes for public schools and having the US make gold and silver legal tender). Finally, Valentin (who has previously ran for State Representative as a Democrat) is running on a platform of defending the 2nd Amendment and reforming Homeowners Associations.
Davis has the fundraising lead and the backing of a few local elected officials. Carter is right behind him in fundraising (mostly thanks to self-funding), though he’s only backed by a few local realty groups. Stuckey has slightly lagged behind Davis & Carter in fundraising, though she does have some endorsements from a few Polk County GOP officials. Albert has an almost entirely self-funded campaign, though still has some backing from some local city elected officials. Finally Owens & Valentin have massively lagged behind the rest of the pack and have no major endorsements to speak of.
In a six-person race with this close of a fundraising gap, it’s as close to a pure toss-up as it could get. I think this will ultimately come down to Davis & Carter though, with Davis narrowly getting the win in this installment of “hey maybe ranked choice voting isn’t such a bad thing.”
HD-49 (Southern Polk County):
With Republican incumbent Melony Bell running for Polk County Elections Supervisor, four Republicans are running to replace her in this deeply Republican district: businesswoman Jennifer Kinkart Jonsson, businessman Shawn McDonough, mediator Heather McArthur, and former Polk County Commissioner Randy Wilkinson.
Jonsson is running as a normal Republican, wanting to promote economic growth, support the 2nd Amendment, and oppose abortion. McDonough is running a bit to her right, focusing on stopping illegal immigration, lowering insurance costs, and supporting the expansion of the availability of the Bible. McArthur is running as a right-winger, wanting to “protect children from indoctrination” and protect America’s southern border. Finally, Wilkinson (who ran for Congress in 2010 as a Tea Party candidate and nearly threw a Republican district to the Democrats) is stressing his previous elected experience and says that Polk County is arresting too many people.
Jonsson has the fundraising lead and the backing of the Fraternal Order of Police alongside several conservative-leaning industry groups. McDonough is right behind Jonsson in fundraising (mostly thanks to self-funding) and enjoys the backing of the NRA. McArthur has lagged behind both Jonsson and McDonough in fundraising, but she is backed by a few local officials. Finally, Wilkinson has raised little money and has almost no institutional support at all.
This is probably going to come down to Jonsson and McDonough and in that case, I’m leaning more towards Jonsson thanks to her fundraising lead and outside support. Though McDonough’s more right-wing platform does probably play well in this district (which backed former President Trump by 27 in 2020), so he’s still in it. For now though, advantage to Jonsson.
HD-56 (Western Pasco County):
Republican incumbent Brad Yeager is facing a primary challenge from US Air Force veteran Kirk Phillips in this deeply Republican district. Phillips, who calls himself “Captain Kirk” is running on a moderate platform of reducing insurance costs, increasing the quality of education, and improving local infrastructure. Probably the most moderate candidate we’ve seen so far, but he’s raised little money while Yeager has a wide fundraising lead and enjoys the backing of Governor DeSantis and the Koch-aligned Americans for Prosperity group. Yeager will probably win this one easily.
HD-72 (Eastern Manatee County):
Republican incumbent Tommy Gregory resigned from this solidly Republican seat back in June in order to become President of State College of Florida, so four Republicans are running to replace him: Manatee County Planning Commissioner Bill Connerly, businesswoman Alyssa Gay, school board member Rich Tatem, and attorney Richard Green.
Connerly is running as a standard right winger, wanting to drive down insurance costs, fight “woke indoctrination,” and “fight” President Biden. Gay is running on a similar platform of lowering the cost of living, lowering illegal immigration, and protecting the 2nd Amendment. Tatem is highlighting his right-wing work on the school board, promising to fight for “parental rights” in education and “dispensing radical ideologies.” Finally, Green has seemed to avoid the culture war (though he’s still running as a standard Republican), supporting lowering the cost of living, protecting local natural resources, and opposing abortion.
Connerly has the fundraising lead (almost entirely thanks to real estate groups) with Gay & Tatem trailing behind (though Tatem has the backing of the Manatee County Sheriff) and Green far behind. This is also a rare district where we actually have a poll (from Illinois pollster M3 Strategies, shoutout!) which shows Connerly in first with 27%, Gay in second with 20%, Tatem in third with 19%, and Green in fourth with 9%. Because of that (alongside his wide fundraising lead), I think Connerly wins this one.
HD-74 (Eastern Sarasota County):
Republican incumbent James Buchanan, not the 15th President, but the son of FL-16 Congressman Vern Buchanan, is running for reelection in this solidly Republican district, but first he has to get through a primary challenge from conservative activist Michelle Pozzie. Pozzie is running to the right of Buchanan, saying that the conservative incumbent needs to fight for more conservative legislation in the House. She also supports ending the “woke agenda,” promoting “election integrity,” and supporting “medical freedom.” She hasn’t raised much money though (but she does have some endorsements from a few local grassroots groups), which has allowed Buchanan to take a wide fundraising lead. He’s also got the backing of Governor DeSantis, so Buchanan should be fine here.
HD-76 (DeSoto/eastern Charlotte Counties):
With Republican incumbent Spencer Roach retiring, two Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: businesswoman Vanessa Oliver and farmer Steven Ceracche.
Oliver’s running as a bog-standard conservative, supporting lowering insurance costs, opposing illegal immigration, and supporting “parental rights” in education. Ceracche is running a more local-focused campaign, promising to prioritize clean waters, supporting Florida farmers, and lowering insurance costs. Oliver has a huge fundraising lead over Ceracche (who hasn’t raised much money at all) and the backing of several sitting State Legislators, so she’s the heavy favorite to win here.
HD-81 (Western Collier County):
Republican incumbent Bob Rommel is term-limited from running again in this deeply Republican district, so two candidates are running to replace him: Marco Island City Councilman Greg Folley and US Air Force veteran Yvette Benarroch.
Folley is running as a standard Republican, wanting to “protect freedoms,” secure the southern border, and improve local infrastructure. Benarroch is running to his right, supporting stopping illegal immigration, getting “wokeism” out of schools, and stopping the “radical left” from destroying “family values.” Both candidates have raised a good amount of money, though Folley holds the lead in that department thanks to self-funding. Folley also has the backing of Florida State CFO Jimmy Patronis and several conservative-leaning industry groups (most notably the Florida Chamber of Commerce). Benarroch does arguably have the more impressive endorsement list though, being backed by FL-19 Congressman Byron Donalds, several local elected officials, and the Fraternal Order of Police.
It’s pretty much a pure toss-up between these two, but if I had to guess, I’d go with Folley eking out a narrow win. He’s got the wide fundraising lead and has also heavily outspent Benarroch (by a 4-to-1 margin), so that should give him the slight edge over Benarroch’s impressive group of backers.
HD-94 (Western Palm Beach County):
With Republican incumbent Rick Roth term-limited, four Republicans are running to replace him in this ultra competitive district: nonprofit executive Meg Weinberger, businessman Anthony Aguirre, nuclear engineer Christian Acosta, and conservative activist Gabrielle Fox.
Weinberger, who’s been nicknamed “MAGA Meg” by her supporters, is running on a pretty right-wing platform, opposing abortion, supporting the 2nd Amendment, and really really REALLY (and I mean really) supporting former President Trump. Aguirre is running on a similar platform, wanting to put “America First” and do pretty much everything Weinberger wants to do. Acosta is running on a slightly less right-wing platform, focusing on lowering the cost of living, improving education standards, and supporting “election integrity.” Finally, Fox is probably the most right-wing candidate here, supporting law enforcement, wanting to “protect Florida kids,” and fighting illegal immigration.
Weinberger has the fundraising lead here and has the backing of former President Trump (alongside several other prominent conservatives like Kari Lake and FL-01 Congressman Matt Gaetz (ick)). Aguirre is backed by Governor DeSantis (who picked Aguirre over Weinberger because she & her husband donated money to Andrew Gillum in the 2018 Florida Gubernatorial election), but has lagged behind Weinberger in fundraising. Acosta is trailing far behind in fundraising, but he has been endorsed by term-limited Representative Roth. Finally, Fox rounds out the pack in fundraising and only has the support of a few local grassroots groups.
This one probably comes down to Weinberger and Aguirre. In that case, I think Weinberger’s fundraising lead and Trump endorsement ultimately trumps (pun intended) Aguirre’s DeSantis endorsement. I’m also not counting out Acosta despite his fundraising woes, as the Roth endorsement is pretty decent and he might have residual name recognition from his failed 2022 Congressional run. For now though, I think Weinberger pulls this one out and sets up an interesting November contest against the former Democratic Mayor of Palm Beach Gardens Rachelle Litt.
HD-106 (Miami Beach area):
Republican incumbent Fabian Basabe was probably the most “unique” Republican elected in the 2022 Republican wave that swept over Florida. Before he entered politics, he was a reality show participant (appearing on the E! Television show Filthy Rich: Cattle Drive) and was charged with multiple misdemeanors in previous years. Still, thanks to trash Democratic turnout and easy Republican wins at the top of the ticket, Basabe flipped this Biden+10 district to the Republicans.
So how has Basabe done in the State House since then? Uh, not good. He’s broken with the Republicans on a few occasions (most notably on a few union-related bills), but has mostly maintained a solidly Republican voting record (especially on social issues even though he calls himself a social liberal). More notably, he’s faced three different accusations of assaulting and sexually harassing legislative aides. Has this stopped him from running for reelection? No and he’s still backed by the Miami-Dade County GOP, the NRA, and both the State House Speaker and next year’s State House Speaker.
Does this mean Basabe’s Republican primary opponent, attorney Melinda Almonte, has a chance at unseating him? Probably not. Almonte (who’s running on a platform targeting rising insurance costs and environmental concerns) has mostly self-funded her campaign (and even then Basabe is still beating her in the fundraising department) and has no major endorsements to her name. Basabe should win this one, but a significant protest vote for Almonte would not shock me at all. It’s more likely that Basabe loses in November to the Democratic nominee Joe Saunders than loses tonight, let’s put it like that.
HD-115 (Southern Miami outskirts):
With Republican incumbent Alina Garcia running for Miami-Dade County Supervisor of Elections, three Republicans are running to replace her in this Republican-leaning district: nonprofit director Alian Collazo, firefighter Omar Blanco, and businessman Moises Benhabib.
Collazo is running as a pretty generic right-winger, with his most notable policy plank promising to “stand with President Donald J. Trump to defeat the woke socialist agenda.” Blanco is a bit more substantiated (but still on the right flank of the party), supporting “parental rights” in education and wanting to lower taxes/insurance costs. Benhabib is running as a self-proclaimed “moderate,” wanting to focus on lowering local traffic congestion and increasing economic growth opportunities.
Collazo has the fundraising lead (mostly thanks to self-funding) and has the backing of several sitting State Legislators. Blanco is right behind Collazo in fundraising and is being backed by FL-26 Congressman Mario Diaz-Balart alongside the Fraternal Order of Police. Finally, Benhabib has lagged far behind both men in fundraising (even with a good amount of self-funding) and has no major backers.
This one will come down to Collazo and Blanco, which means that I think Blanco narrowly pulls this out. Collazo has faced questions over his residency (he’s been living in the Tampa area for most of his recent years), while Blanco seems to have more institutional support. As such, I think Blanco narrowly wins here.
That’s all for this edition of Grand Old Primary! I’ll be back shortly to cover all the competitive Republican primaries in Wyoming, so until then, you can follow me on Twitter at @Uncrewed and don’t forget to be awesome!