Grand Old Primary- August 1st, 2024
Covering all the major Republican primaries in Tennessee!
GRAND OLD PRIMARY- AUGUST 1ST, 2024
INTRO:
Hello everyone and welcome to today’s edition of Grand Old Primary! If you didn’t catch Tuesday’s edition covering the Arizona primary or just need a refresher, Grand Old Primary is a series where I delve deep into the Republican primaries taking place across the country. From Congress to the State House and even some county races, they’re all here folks. We’ve got an unusual Thursday primary tonight, which means it’s Tennessee’s turn to vote. So without further ado, let’s get into it!
US Senate:
Republican incumbent Marsha Blackburn has been a darling of the right-wing since he was first elected back in 2018. She defeated the most credible Tennessee Democrat left (former Governor Phil Bredesen) and has since established herself as one of former President Trump’s biggest supporters. She’s facing conservative activist Tres Wittum in the primary this year, who’s attacked Blackburn for not doing more about the national debt and for certifying the 2020 election. It’s a campaign that’s expectedly gone nowhere, which means Blackburn will easily win this one.
TN-04 (Southern Tennessee):
Oh where to begin with Republican incumbent Scott DesJarlais. Before Donald Trump came to Washington, you could honestly argue DesJarlais was the most controversial Republican in Congress. From pressuring a mistress to have an abortion to prescribing another one of his mistresses opioids and marijuana, DesJarlais was a real lightning rod for controversy back in the early 2010s.
Nowadays, he’s mostly kept his head low, making room for the new generation of controversial Republicans. Nevertheless, two men have stepped up to face him: US Army veteran Thomas Davis and Rutherford County Commissioner Josh James. Neither of the two have raised much money or attracted that much attention, so DesJarlais is probably fine.
TN-05 (Central Tennessee):
After the Tennessee Republicans destroyed the old compact TN-05 in 2022, it flipped to the Republicans with Andy Ogles winning it for them. Since then, Ogles has established himself firmly on the far-right. He voted against Kevin McCarthy’s bid for Speaker in January 2023 (though he voted to not oust him as Speaker later in 2023), said that he wished that the US should “kill ‘em all!” referring to Palestinian casualties in the Israel-Hamas War, and introduced a bill that would send college students who were convicted of crimes for protesting the Israel-Hamas War to Gaza and have them perform community service. He’s also attracted unwanted attention for lying on his campaign finance forms and allegedly lying about his background.
All of this has led Nashville Metro Councilwoman Courtney Johnston to challenge Ogles. Compared to Ogles, who has been a conservative firebrand in Congress, Johnston is definitely a traditional Republican (focusing on things like crime, securing the border, and lowering inflation). She’s also earned a lot of backing from traditional Republicans who are tired of Ogles acting like, well, Andy Ogles. This has allowed Johnston to actually beat Ogles in the fundraising department. Despite all of that, Ogles does have the (pun intended) Trump card in an endorsement from former President Trump and endorsements from people/groups like US Senator Bill Haggerty and AIPAC.
As of right now, I think Ogles pulls this off. Johnston probably narrowly wins the Nashville portion of the district, but Ogles cleans her clock in the rural areas. That being said, a Johnston win isn’t out of the question given her excellent campaign. It’s just not that likely at the moment.
SD-02 (Southeastern Tennessee):
With Republican incumbent Art Swann not running for reelection, three Republicans have stepped up to replace him in this solidly Republican seat: Blount County Circuit Court Clerk Tom Hatcher, businessman John Pullias, and State Representative Bryan Richey.
Hatcher has opened up a wide fundraising lead and has had plenty of outside help thanks to the right-wing Club for Growth spending nearly a million dollars on attack ads against Bryan Richey for opposing Governor Bill Lee’s school voucher bill. Outside of that, all three candidates are solid conservatives, as expected in such a deeply Republican seat. Hatcher’s probably the favorite, but Richey’s name recognition keeps him in contention (despite the outside money coming in against him).
SD-04 (Sullivan/Hawkins Counties):
Longtime State Senator Jon Lundberg is facing a tough challenge in this deeply Republican district from pharmacist Bobby Harshbarger (who’s also the son of TN-01 Congresswoman Diana Harshbarger).
Harshbarger has attacked Lundberg for being a RINO (Republican in Name Only) because he voted against several conservative culture war bills and said that COVID-19 vaccines were good. He’s raised a lot of money too, though almost all of it was self-financed by him. That last name has also helped him too, as he’s recently been endorsed by former President Trump (who praised his mother in the same post on Truth Social). To Lundberg’s credit though, he’s running on his record (nearly 20 years of accomplishments), has matched Harshbarger in fundraising, and has the backing of Governor Bill Lee.
This is going to be the hottest primary of the night, that’s for certain. Harshbarger is a bomb-thrower, while Lundberg is definitely a more traditional workhorse conservative. As we know in the modern Republican Party, bomb throwing usually wins out and I think it’ll happen again here. Harshbarger winning narrowly is my prediction. Though workhorses do sometimes win and Lundberg’s a known figure in the community, so he cannot be ruled out at all.
SD-06 (Eastern Knox County):
Incumbent State Senator Becky Duncan Massey is running again for reelection to this solidly Republican seat and why shouldn’t she? The Duncan family is the closest thing Knox County has to a political dynasty (her brother and father both served Congressmen for TN-02) and she’s always won reelection handily. That’ll probably be the case again this year when she faces businesswoman Monica Irvine. Irvine is attacking Massey for not being conservative enough, but her fundraising leaves a lot to be desired. Massey’s the favorite to win.
SD-08 (Northeastern Tennessee):
Republican incumbent Frank Nicely is running for re-election in this deeply Republican district, but first has to turn back a challenge from businessman Jesse Seal. Nicely is definitely the more conservative candidate in the race, focusing on his record of sponsoring and passing conservative culture war bills. Seal’s pretty much running a generic conservative campaign, though he recently came under fire for having some language on his website promising to build a more “equitable” future. His campaign is also almost entirely self-funded. Even then, Nicely has almost matched him in fundraising (with tons of more money banked). Nicely’s the favorite for sure.
SD-10 (Bledsoe County to Chattanooga):
Republican incumbent Todd Gardenhire is facing former Red Bank City Commissioner Ed LeCompte in this solidly Republican district’s primary. LeCompte is running to Gardenhire’s right (calling himself an “America First Candidate''), but hasn’t really raised a lot of money. Meanwhile, Gardenhire has proven himself to be a pretty popular incumbent thanks to his more moderate positions on things like immigration and criminal justice. Because of all of that, Gardenhire should be the favorite to win.
SD-12 (Northern Tennessee):
Republican incumbent Ken Yager is facing nurse practitioner Teena Hedrick for the Republican nomination for this deeply Republican district. Hedrick has attacked Yager for being a RINO, but her fundraising has been paltry to say the least. Yager should be fine here.
SD-18 (Sumner/Trousdale Counties):
Republican incumbent Ferrell Haile is running for a fourth term in the State Senate in this solidly Republican district north of Nashville. However, he first has to fend off businessman Chris Spencer.
Spencer has pounded Haile for being a RINO, specifically attacking Haile for wanting to add exceptions to the state’s abortion ban and for being open to legalizing medical marijuana. He’s also saying some pretty messed up stuff about Haile, claiming that he supports pornography in schools and forced vaccinations. Haile has mostly kept his head down, focusing on his conservative voting record and touting an endorsement from Governor Bill Lee. Fundraising has also been neck and neck between the two candidates, mostly thanks to Spencer self-funding his campaign.
This one’s going to be close, but I think Haile’s incumbency ultimately pulls him over the finish line. These northern suburbs/exurbs of Nashville have been a bit of a hub of right-wing insurgencies recently though, so it could be enough to put Spencer over the edge. For now though, advantage to Haile.
SD-24 (Northwestern Tennessee):
Republican incumbent John Stevens is facing US Army veteran Charlie Cooper in the Republican primary for this deeply Republican seat. Cooper hasn’t really done much, except for one really funny thing. Back in May it was revealed that Cooper was using AI images of himself on his campaign website to make himself look younger. They’ve since been taken down, but it was funny nonetheless. Either way, Stevens is the overwhelming favorite.
HD-04 (Unicoi/western Carter Counties):
Republican incumbent John Holsclaw is retiring, so two Republicans have stepped up to replace him in this deeply Republican seat: businesswoman Renea Jones and Elizabethton Mayor Curt Alexander. Jones is running a pretty normal right-wing campaign (fighting crime, promising to take “liberal initiatives” out of schools, and just general NIMBY-ism), while Alexander is trying to run on his record as Mayor. The problem for Alexander though is that his fundraising hasn’t really been all that good. It’s probably because he got a late start to the race (only entering a few months ago), but Jones has out-raised and out-spent Alexander by a 4-to-1 margin. Jones is probably the favorite for now.
HD-12 (Sevier County):
With Republican incumbent Dale Carr not running for re-election, three Republicans are running to replace him in this solidly Republican district: Sevier County Commissioner Fred Atchley, US Navy veteran Larry Linton, and conservative activist Christian Brown.
Atchley’s running on a pretty traditional conservative platform, promising to invest in public schools, upgrade local infrastructure, and strengthen public safety. Linton, on the other hand, is running hard to the right, saying that Atchley is “speaking with a forked tongue,” and calling him a puppet of teachers unions and the Sevier County Republican Party. Finally, Brown is running a pretty interesting campaign, calling to lower taxes, increase public school funding, and expand voting rights.
Atchley’s the favorite here, having the big fundraising lead and endorsements from people and organizations like Representative Carr and the Tennessee Professional Firefighters Association. I could see Linton taking a decent chunk of voters who think Atchley isn’t conservative enough, but it won’t be enough to win. Also credit to Brown for running what’s essentially a centrist campaign in such a deeply Republican district (Trump+57 in 2020).
HD-13 (Western Rutherford County):
Republican incumbent Robert Stevens is facing a tough challenge from Murfreesboro City Councilwoman Jami Averwater in this left-trending (but still solidly Republican) district east of Nashville.
Both Stevens and Averwater are pretty normal conservatives, focusing on being anti-abortion, pro-public safety, and pro-cutting taxes. If you made me choose, I’d say Averwater is slightly to his Stevens’s left, but it’s not by much. There’s not that much daylight between the two in the endorsement game either, with Averwater backed by the Mayor of Murfreesboro and the Tennessee Professional Fire Fighters Association, while Stevens is backed by the realtors PAC and the Tennessee Bar Association. Stevens does have a fundraising lead, but Averwater isn’t too far behind.
There’s just not much separating these two folks, so it’s pretty hard for me to pick a winner. If I had to guess, I’d say Stevens pulls it out, but I’m not that confident in that because Averwater is running a pretty good campaign for a newcomer.
HD-20 (Western Blount County):
With Republican incumbent Bryan Richey running for State Senate (see the SD-02 section for that), three Republicans have stepped up to replace him in this deeply Republican district: attorney Jason Emert, Blount County Commissioner Nick Bright, and Blount County Commissioner Tom Stinnett.
All three are pretty solid conservatives, though Bright has said that his opponents are wavering and that he’s the only “true conservative” in the race. Whether that has anything to do with the fact that he’s trailing in fundraising to Emert (who also got an endorsement from Governor Bill Lee and strangely, Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose) remains to be seen. Meanwhile, Stinnett is trailing behind both of them in both endorsements and fundraising. Emert should be the favorite here, hopefully (for him) avenging his 2018 primary loss in TN-02 where he only got 2% of the vote despite being endorsed by US Senator Ted Cruz.
HD-24 (Cleveland):
Republican incumbent Kevin Raper faces a challenge from former school board member Troy Weathers in this deeply Republican district east of Chattanooga. It’s a rematch of the 2022 primary here, this time without a few candidates. Raper edged out Weathers by 246 votes that time around, but has the benefit of incumbency this time around alongside the fact that Weathers really hasn’t raised any money. Advantage to Kevin.
HD-27 (Western Hamilton County):
Republican incumbent Patsy Hazlewood is one of the more moderate Republican State Representatives currently serving, which earned her a challenge from realtor Michelle Reneau in this solidly Republican district.
Reneau is hitting Hazlewood for voting with Democrats on several key issues like abortion and farming bills. Hazlewood, on the other hand, is mostly talking about her record of service over the last 10 years. She’s also got some pretty prominent endorsements from local Hamilton County politicians and organizations like the Tennessee Chamber of Commerce and the Tennessee Professional Firefighters Association. Hazlewood has also out-fundraised Reneau, which cannot be said about some other incumbent Republicans facing conservative challengers.
Hazlewood should be fine here, but there’s a chance Reneau is able to channel conservative anger against the incumbent and pull off the win. It’s a small chance, but it’s a chance.
HD-31 (Bledsoe/Rhea/Van Buren/Sequatchie Counties):
Republican incumbent Ron Travis is facing a challenge from real estate agent Richard Smith in this deeply Republican district. Fun fact about Smith, I legitimately cannot find any info about him online (outside of his occupation). As such, Travis is the easy favorite.
HD-33 (Anderson County):
Republican incumbent John Ragan is in for the fight of his political life in this solidly Republican district north of Knoxville. He’s facing police officer Rick Scarborough.
Ragan’s one of the most conservative legislators in Tennessee, most notably introducing a bill that would allow the state government to “nullify” any COVID-19 restrictions that they thought were unconstitutional. Because that’s what America needs, another Nullification Crisis! Scarborough, on the other hand, is running on a pretty traditional Republican platform, championing public safety, school choice, and strengthening the economy. Ragan does have some pretty good endorsements though, most notably Governor Bill Lee. Scarborough’s not to be outdone though, as he has both a fundraising lead and an endorsement from former Governor Bill Haslam!
This one’s neck and neck folks, both men are really close in fundraising and endorsements, so this one probably comes down to the general vibe of Republican primary voters. Like I’ve said numerous times now, when Republican voters are forced to pick between work horses and bomb-throwers, they usually pick bomb-throwers. Because of that (and incumbency), I think Ragan pulls this one out, though do not count out Scarborough.
HD-34 (Southern Rutherford County):
Republican incumbent Tim Rudd is facing a challenge from Rutherford County Public Building Authority Vice Chairman Tucker Marcum in this left-trending (albeit still solidly Republican) district east of Nashville.
Rudd’s been a pretty right-wing voice in the State House, sponsoring election integrity bills and voting for the litany of culture war bills that have been passed by the Republicans in Nashville. Meanwhile, Marcum is running as a more moderate Republican, running on reducing taxes and investing in public education. Marcum also has some serious endorsements from nearly every Rutherford County Commissioner and the Tennessee Education Association. To Rudd’s credit though, he does lead Marcum in the fundraising department.
I think Rudd pulls this one out thanks to incumbency and the fundraising advantage, but Marcum has run a really impressive campaign for someone so young.
HD-43 (White/Warren Counties):
Republican incumbent Paul Sherrell is facing two challengers in this deeply Republican district: White County Commissioner Robert McCormick and conservative activist Tim Lewis.
Sherrell’s pretty much a normal Republican, though he did attract controversy in 2023 for supporting bringing back lynching as a form of capital punishment (which he later apologized for). McCormick’s pretty similar to him, promising to protect the 2nd Amendment and invest in public schools. Lewis is the most far-right of the three, but has raised approximately $0 in fundraising, so he’s toast. Speaking of fundraising, Sherrell leads McCormick in that metric, though McCormick has recently gotten some help from the Tennessee Education Association.
Sherrell should be the favorite here, but I can see McCormick making a run at it. The only thing I know is that Lewis isn’t going to win, sorry Tim.
HD-64 (Eastern Maury County):
Republican incumbent Scott Cepicky is facing an interesting challenge in this deeply Republican district from challenger/Maury County Commissioner Ray Jeter. In a race heavily focused on education, Cepicky has pointed to his backing of a school voucher bill. He also has the fundraising lead and endorsements from people like Governor Bill Lee and TN-05 Congressman Andy Ogles (this is his home district). Jeter, on the other hand, shares many similar policies with Cepicky, but says that Tennessee should invest more in public education.
Cepicky should be the favorite here, but there’s a chance for Jeter if the voters really didn’t like Cepicky’s old comments about throwing the whole public school system in the trash while pushing school vouchers at the same time.
HD-65 (Western Williamson County):
With Republican incumbent Sam Whitson retiring, three Republicans have stepped up to replace him in this solidly Republican suburban district south of Nashville: attorney Lee Reeves, Williamson County Commissioner Brian Beathard, and nurse Michelle Foreman.
Reeves has led the pack in fundraising and has the backing of Governor Bill Lee. However, Beathard is right behind Reeves in fundraising and has the backing of retiring Representative Whitson and pretty much every Williamson County politician. Finally, Foreman is backed by country music singer John Rich, definitely on the same level as Reeves and Beathard’s endorsers.
In terms of their policies, Reeves is pretty solidly right-wing, promising to cut taxes and promote “parental choice” in schools. Beathard is pretty similar, but he’s made it a point to oppose Governor Lee’s school voucher proposal. Finally, Foreman is the candidate of the far-right through and through, with her main issue on her campaign website being election integrity.
It’s really a tossup between Reeves and Beathard. It all depends on what you think is more effective, money or local connections. I’m leaning towards the latter, so I’ll go with Beathard snatching a narrow win. Though really, it’s nearly 50/50 between him and Reeves.
HD-68 (Eastern Montgomery County):
Republican incumbent Curtis Johnson is retiring, so four different Republicans have stepped up to replace him in this deeply Republican district: Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Smith, school board member Aron Maberry, businesswoman Carol Duffin, and US Army veteran Greg Gilman.
All four candidates are pretty similar, supporting school choice, the 2nd Amendment, etc. Johnson leads the back in fundraising and is backed by multiple Montgomery County politicians. Maberry is lagging behind in fundraising, but recently got the endorsement of Governor Bill Lee and several sitting County Commissioners. Finally, Duffin and Gilman are lagging behind in both fundraising and endorsements (though Duffin has given her campaign nearly $15,000 in self loans).
This probably comes down to Smith and Maberry, but from there it’s a pure tossup. If I had to choose, I’d go with Smith, just because of his fundraising advantage. The Lee endorsement is pretty big for Maberry though, so I’m not counting him out.
HD-73 (Northern Madison County):
Republican incumbent Chris Todd is squaring off against former Madison County Mayor Jimmy Harris in this deeply Republican district’s Republican primary. Todd’s definitely on the right-wing of the party, as he’s sponsored bills relating to restricting abortion and to provide firearm training to grade school students. Harris is somewhat right-wing, but seems to be focusing his campaign more so on his ability to serve as a good Representative for Madison County. Either way, Todd has the fundraising advantage and should be in a decent position to win a fourth term in office.
HD-77 (Northwestern Tennessee):
Republican incumbent Rusty Grills is facing a spirited challenge in this deeply Republican district from Dyer County Commissioner James “Bubba” Cobb. While Grills is solidly on the right flank of the party, Cobb is running more as a traditional conservative except for one key issue, school vouchers. Cobb is anti-school voucher and pro-investing in public education.
Cobb hasn’t really raised a lot of money, but he does have some pretty good name recognition for a first-time challenger. In addition to being on the Dyer County Board, he’s also a local high school football coach, where he’s won over 700 games! I think Grills is probably going to win this, but to me this is a dark horse contender for a surprise primary win. If Cobb does win, you know what I’m going to say right? “RUN MORE FOOTBALL COACHES IF YOU WANT TO WIN!”
HD-78 (Cheatham/eastern Dickson Counties):
Republican incumbent Mary Littleton has made a name for herself as one of Tennessee’s most right-wing State Representatives. In fact, her main claim to fame is proposing a law that would allow anti-LGBTQ foster parents to have the same child placement rights as normal parents, potentially opening the door to unsafe homes for LGBTQ kids and teens.
It’s not why she’s getting primaried by teacher Justin Spurlock though. Spurlock is running on a more moderate campaign of investing in public education and growing the economy. He also hasn’t really raised much money, so Littleton should be fine here.
HD-97 (Eastern Memphis):
Welcome to the one district in Tennessee where the Republicans have the opportunity to shoot themselves in the foot and hand a district to the Democrats if the wrong candidate wins. That wrong candidate isn’t incumbent State Representative John Gillespie by the way, it’s businesswoman Christina Oppenhuizen.
Gillespie’s probably the most moderate Republican State Representative in Tennessee (you kind of have to be in a Biden+5 district like this) and Oppenhuizen is the complete opposite. On her website, she has vowed to defend “biblical principles” and constitutional rights. The upside for Gillespie and the Tennessee GOP is that Oppenhuizen hasn’t really raised any money, which means that Gillespie is almost assuredly going to win. If he does somehow manage to lose though, this district is flipping blue in November (hell, it might regardless of who wins here!).
And that’s all for this edition of Grand Old Primary! I’ll be back on Tuesday for four big states holding primaries: Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington. Until then, don’t forget to follow me on Twitter at @Uncrewed and don’t forget to stay excellent!