Grand Old Primary- August 20th, 2024 (Wyoming Edition)
Covering all the major Republican primaries in Wyoming!
GRAND OLD PRIMARY- AUGUST 20th, 2024 (Wyoming Edition)
INTRO:
Hello everyone and welcome to another exciting edition of Grand Old Primary! If you’re new here, Grand Old Primary is a series where I cover all the most important Republican primaries going on throughout the country. From Congress to the State Legislature to even a few county races, they’re all here folks. We’ve got three states holding primaries tonight, but with Alaska’s top-four primaries allowing four winners (which means that every district pretty much is set for November), we’re only covering two states today: Florida & Wyoming. Since we already covered Florida, it’s on to America’s smallest state, Wyoming! Let’s get to it!
US Senate:
Republican incumbent John Barasso is running for reelection, but he’s facing a couple of primary opponents before he can make it to November. His two opponents are businessman Reid Rasner and retired judge John Holtz.
Rasner is running hard to the right of Barasso (who’s been more of a generic Republican in the US Senate), attacking the incumbent for not voting for some of Trump’s border reforms and supporting funding Ukraine. He doesn’t have any major endorsements, but he has plopped down over $1 million of his own money into this race. Apparently it’s working too, according to his own polling. He’s published a few internal polling memos that show Barasso with an underwater approval rating among Republicans and a poll supposedly showing Barasso failing to hit 50% in the primary (though he doesn’t provide the actual numbers, suspectly enough).
Holtz hasn’t raised any money, so he’s got no shot here. As for Barasso though, I think he’ll be fine. Rasner will probably get a decent amount of the vote though, not enough to win, but enough to show that the right-wing takeover of the Wyoming Republican Party is still alive and kicking (we’ll get to that more in the legislative races though).
WY-At Large (Wyoming):
Republican incumbent Harriet Hageman attracted national attention in 2022 when she unseated moderate media darling/then-Congresswoman Liz Cheney in the Republican primary. This time around it’s a more low-key affair as she faces attorney Steven Helling in the primary. Helling, who ran as a pro-Trump Democrat in 2022 and lost in the primary, hasn’t raised any money yet and has spent most of his campaign trying to explain what the hell he was thinking running as a pro-Trump Democrat in 2022. As such, Hageman should win this one easily.
SD-06 (Platte/northern Laramie Counties):
After failing to win WY-At Large’s Republican primary in 2022 (and it being revealed that he impregnated a 14 year old girl back when he was 18), Republican incumbent Anthony Bouchard is retiring from this deeply Republican district. A whopping SIX candidates are running to replace him: businessman Darin Smith, businesswoman Kim Withers, school board member Taft Love, former Platte County Commissioner Eric Johnston, rancher Marc Torianni, and US Air Force veteran Gary Bjorklund.
Smith is running as a culture warrior, opposing abortion (citing Dr. Seuss’s Horton Hears a Who in that part of his platform), wanting to “protect women’s sports,” and “end DEI in Wyoming.” Smith is running a more traditional campaign, focusing mostly on fixing the economy and stopping illegal immigration. Love’s also running a traditional campaign, focusing on lowering taxes, supporting the 2nd Amendment, and opposing abortion. Johnston is running as a normal Republican, focusing on agriculture, energy production, and rebuilding infrastructure. Torriani is a culture warrior, opposing abortion, wanting to ban Critical Race Theory in schools, and stopping any restrictions on the 2nd Amendment. Finally, Bjorklund is running as a standard right-winger, supporting law enforcement and opposing illegal immigration.
Smith has the fundraising advantage and enjoys the backing of both former President Trump & retiring Senator Bouchard (alongside several other sitting State Senators). Withers has lagged behind in fundraising, but she is backed by the Wyoming Chamber of Commerce. No other candidates have major endorsements, but Love and Johnston have raised decent amounts of money (that cannot be said about Torianni & Bjorklund). I think Smith pulls this one off, but in such a split primary field, I’m not counting out either Withers or Love. For now though, I think the Trump endorsement and fundraising advantage is enough to push Smith over the finish line.
SD-10 (Albany County):
With Republican incumbent Dan Furphy retiring, two Republicans are running to replace him in this solidly Republican district: businessman/former NFL player Gary Crum and businessman Keith Kennedy.
Crum’s running as a pretty moderate Republican, focusing on improving education/healthcare standards, supporting farmers, and generally staying away from culture war issues. Kennedy’s running to his right (he was already running against Furphy because Furphy voted against banning gun-free zones before he retired), supporting the 2nd Amendment (calling Crum “squishy” on the issue), opposing abortion, and opposing transgender athletes. Crum has a huge fundraising lead over Kennedy and the backing of retiring Senator Furphy, so he should be in the driver’s seat here.
SD-12 (Rock Springs):
Republican incumbent John Kolb is facing a primary challenge from businessman Jeff Ramaj in this deeply Republican district. Ramaj has attacked Kolb for supporting the status quo too much and says that Wyoming needs a “reboot.” The two men have basically identical platforms (anti-abortion, pro-2nd Amendment, anti-taxes), though Kolb is a bit more traditionalist and not as bombastic. Kolb has the fundraising lead over Ramaj (though not by much), so he should be fine here. I’m not counting out Ramaj though, especially if a strong enough far-right wave sweeps over Wyoming.
SD-14 (Western Wyoming):
With Republican incumbent Fred Baldwin retiring, three candidates are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: State Representative/State House Speaker Albert Sommers, sheep rancher Laura Pearson, and US Navy veteran/perennial candidate Bill Winney.
Sommers is running on his record in the State House, calling himself a “problem solver” and pointing to his efforts to reduce property taxes. Pearson is running as a culture warrior, opposing “transgender ideology,” supporting the 2nd Amendment, and supporting “election integrity.” Winney is running as a conservative outsider, wanting to cut spending, lower property taxes, and increase local EMS funding.
Let’s get this out of the way, Sommers is a pretty big enemy of the right-wing in Wyoming. In his time as Speaker, he constantly clashed with the far-right Wyoming Freedom Caucus and has been a big beneficiary of spending from the more traditionalist Wyoming Caucus in this race. Could that leave an opening for the far-right Pearson? Maybe, but her fundraising has been somewhat mediocre (barely outpacing Winney in that department). I think Sommers ultimately pulls this one out thanks to a weak right-wing opponent, but a Pearson win thanks to the far-right hating Sommers is definitely not out of the question.
SD-18 (Northwestern Wyoming):
Republican incumbent Tim French is facing a primary challenge from former Cody City Councilman Landon Greer in this deeply Republican district. While French is one of the more right-wing members of the Senate (proudly touting his support for a transgender athlete bill and touting his opposition to Governor Mark Gordon vetoing an anti-DEI bill), Greer is trying to run as a more traditional Republican. Greer has said that he doesn’t want to introduce bills “just to get headlines” and is instead more focused on things like economic growth and property tax relief. He’s got a pretty decent fundraising lead over French too, so he’s definitely a serious candidate. Is he serious enough to win though? I lean towards no, just ever so slightly. I think French uses the power of incumbency alongside being more in tune with the district (which backed President Trump by 55 points in 2020) to eke out a win over Greer.
SD-20 (Central Wyoming):
Republican incumbent Ed Cooper is running for reelection, but first he has to face a primary challenge from US Navy veteran Tom Olmstead in this deeply Republican district. While Cooper is running as a traditional Republican, highlighting his record in the Senate fighting for farmers and tax relief, Olmstead is running as a right-wing culture warrior. He’s attacking Cooper for not doing more to fight back against “woke gender ideology” and efforts to fight climate change. Olmstead, in return, has been attacked for just recently moving to the state in 2021, while Cooper is stressing his Wyoming roots. Cooper should be fine here, considering he has the fundraising advantage and that Olmstead doesn’t really have any major backers.
SD-22 (Johnson/eastern Sheridan Counties):
With Republican incumbent David Kinskey retiring, two Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: State Representatives Barry Crago and Mark Jennings.
The House battle between the traditionalist Wyoming Caucus and the far-right Wyoming Freedom Caucus has made its way to the State Senate, as the Wyoming Caucus-backed Crago takes on the Freedom Caucus-backed Jennings. Both men are running on their legislative records, with Crago pointing to his efforts to lower property taxes and Jennings pointing to his anti-abortion and “pro-family values” votes. In the fundraising department, Crago has outmatched Jennings, but Jennings’s more bombastic right-wing platform is probably more in tune with this district (which backed President Trump by 56 in 2020). Pure 50/50 toss up here, but I’ll go with Jennings to win narrowly.
SD-24 (Gillette):
Republican incumbent Troy McKeown faces a primary challenge from businessman Phil Christopherson in this deeply Republican district. Both candidates share similar platforms, but Christopherson is more focused on economic growth compared to McKeown (who is more focused on social issues and the culture war). Christopherson has the fundraising advantage alongside support from several conservative-leaning industry groups. Despite that, I think McKeown’s incumbency should be enough to push him over the finish line.
SD-26 (Eastern Fremont County):
Republican incumbent Tim Salazar is facing off against rancher Elizabeth Philp in the primary for this deeply Republican district. Salazar has been one of the more right-wing members of the State Senate, specifically on issues like abortion and 2nd Amendment laws. Meanwhile, Philp is running on a platform of “common sense” and “civility.” She’s eschewing the culture war in favor of focusing on energy issues (she’s pro-carbon capture!) and protecting Wyoming agriculture. Philp does have the fundraising lead, but I can’t imagine such a moderate campaign will be enough to overcome Salazar’s incumbency in such a Republican district (which backed President Trump by 60 in 2020). Because of that, I think Salazar wins this.
SD-28 (Central Casper):
Republican incumbent Jim Anderson faces a primary challenge from conservative activist Bryce Reece in this deeply Republican district. Reece is running hard to Anderson’s right, aligning himself with the Wyoming Freedom Caucus. He’s also attacking Anderson for supporting former Congresswoman Liz Cheney (before she voted to impeach former President Trump), voting against banning gun free zones, and voting against enacting penalties for businesses who followed COVID-19 mandates. This bombastic attitude has earned Reece the fundraising lead and the backing of several Freedom Caucus legislators, while Anderson’s colleagues in the State Senate have mostly lined up behind him.
This one’s going to be close, but I think Anderson ultimately pulls off the win. The power of incumbency should be enough to push him over the finish line and this district isn’t that far-right for them to throw out a normal Republican in favor of a Freedom Caucus Republican (it “only” backed President Trump by 32 in 2020).
SD-30 (Western Natrona County):
Republican incumbent Charles Scott is facing two primary challengers in the Republican primary for this deeply Republican district: former Natrona County Commissioner Rob Hendry and conservative activist Charles Schoenwolf.
Scott has been one of the longest-serving State Legislators in America today, serving since 1978! He has said his age is starting to catch up with him (already at 78 years old), so if he wins, this might be his last term in the Senate. He has to first get through Hendry & Schoenwolf (who challenged him in 2020) though. Hendry is running as a standard Republican, focusing on protecting the 2nd Amendment and lowering taxes. Schoenwolf is running a bit to his right, opposing any and all tax increases & wanting to promote economic growth in the area. Hendry has the fundraising lead and the backing of several conservative-leaning industry groups.
With the way America has been treating its older candidates, you’d think Scott would be DOA, but I don’t think that honestly. Schoenwolf hasn’t raised much money, but probably still has residual name recognition from his failed primary run in 2020 against Scott. That could bite into Hendry’s base of support and ultimately propel Scott into another term in office. In fact, that’s exactly what I think will happen. I think Charles Scott wins this one thanks to a divided opposition. I could be wrong and Schoenwolf collapses, allowing Hendry to take the win. For now though, I think Scott narrowly pulls it off.
HD-02 (Eastern Wyoming):
So because most of these races are going to fall between the traditionalist Wyoming Caucus and the far-right Freedom Caucus, I’ll mention which group the candidates align with if I can.
So, let’s start with HD-02, a deeply Republican district where Freedom Caucus Republican incumbent Allen Slagle faces off with former Wyoming Caucus-aligned State Representative JD Williams. This is actually a rematch of their 2022 primary where Slagle unseated Williams by just 12 votes. Slagle attacked Williams for not being conservative enough in that primary and he’s doing the same thing this time around. Williams has fired back, saying that the Freedom Caucus has been focused too much on national issues and bomb-throwing rather than producing effective leadership.
Slagle has the fundraising advantage, but Williams is enjoying the backing of several conservative-leaning industry groups. I think Slagle narrowly pulls this one off here, mostly because of said fundraising advantage and the fact that, if anything, the Freedom Caucus has only gotten more popular among Republicans since 2022.
HD-04 (Platte County):
Freedom Caucus Republican incumbent Jeremy Haroldson is facing a challenge from Wyoming Caucus-aligned firefighter Jeffery Thomas in this deeply Republican district. Thomas has attacked Haroldson for not focusing enough on local issues, while Haroldson seems to be more focused on things like banning gun-free zones and repealing all forms of property taxes. The problem for Thomas is that he hasn’t really raised any money, which means that Haroldson should be fine here. Though Thomas being the fire chief of the biggest town in this district (Guernsey) does keep him in contention.
HD-05 (Goshen County):
Freedom Caucus Republican incumbent Scott Smith is running for reelection, but first he has to get through Wyoming Caucus-aligned real estate agent Jackie Van Mark in this deeply Republican district. Van Mark is running as a moderate, decrying the lack of “civility” in Wyoming politics and seeming open to introducing new forms of alternative energy production. Smith is probably the complete opposite of that, attacking Governor Mark Gordon for vetoing several Freedom Caucus bills and attacking the Governor for thinking about expanding alternative energy production. Van Mark has the fundraising lead, but she hasn’t spent any of it yet (as of last week). Combine that with Smith’s incumbency makes me think that he should be fine here.
HD-06 (Eastern Converse County):
Freedom Caucus Republican incumbent Tomi Strock is facing a challenge from Wyoming-caucus aligned former State Representative Aaron Clausen in this deeply Republican district. This is a rematch from 2022, when Strock unseated Clausen by just 56 votes. Clausen has attacked Strock for not being focused enough on local issues, while Strock has attacked Clausen for his voting record in the House (AKA, she’s attacking him for not being a bomb-thrower). Clausen has the fundraising advantage, but Strock now has incumbency on her side. Because of that, and what I mentioned before about the Freedom Caucus only getting more popular among Republicans since 2022, I think Strock narrowly wins again against Clausen.
HD-07 (Northwestern Cheyenne):
Wyoming Caucus Republican incumbent Bob Nicholas is facing a challenge from Freedom Caucus-aligned Wyoming Republican Party Official Kathy Russell in this solidly Republican district. Russell has attacked Nicholas for voting against a transgender athlete ban and for “not standing up for TRUE Wyoming conservatives.” Meanwhile, Nicholas is focusing on his 14-year record in the State House, pointing to his fighting for property tax relief and increasing government savings. Both candidates are neck and neck in fundraising, but I think Nicholas’s incumbency is ultimately enough to push him over the finish line.
HD-08 (Northern Cheyenne):
Wyoming Caucus Republican incumbent David Zwonitzer is facing two Freedom Caucus-aligned opponents in this deeply Republican district: businessman Steve Johnson and conservative activist Cayd Batchelor.
Zwonitzer was apparently set to retire after all the in-fighting that’s been going on in the State House, but decided to run again after he was heckled as a “RINO” during a local party convention and was given a mailer from Johnson’s campaign. That spurred him to run again and he’s mostly been defending his record of focusing on local issues and attacking the Freedom Caucus for being too bombastic. Johnson is running hard to the right, attacking Zwonitzer as a “Democrat in disguise” and voicing his support for a transgender bathroom ban. Batchelor is running similarly to the right, but doesn’t seem to be attacking Zwonitzer as much (though he has criticized him for not being conservative enough).
Zwonitzer has the fundraising lead over Johnson, though he has kept up with the incumbent. Johnson does also have some endorsements from a few conservative grassroots groups. I’m going to play it safe and say Zwonitzer narrowly pulls out the win here because of a split opposition. I don’t expect Batchelor to take up much of the vote, but most of his votes would probably have gone to Johnson, so I think that will allow Zwonitzer to narrowly pull out a win. I’m also not discounting the possibility that Batchelor won’t matter and that Johnson wins because of it, but for now I’m going with Zwonitzer.
HD-09 (Northeastern Cheyenne):
Wyoming Caucus Republican incumbent Landon Brown faces a challenge from Freedom Caucus-aligned US Air Force veteran/former country music singer Exie Brown in this deeply Republican district. Yes you read that right, Exie Brown used to be the lead singer of the country music band Southern Fryed. He’s cut off his long blonde hair and covered up his arm sleeve tattoos for this primary though. Exie has attacked Landon for not being conservative enough and for asking a judge to give a more lenient sentence to a State Trooper who was convicted of sexual assault. Landon has apologized for doing that, but has defended his more moderate voting record. Despite that, Landon still has a huge fundraising lead over Exie and has turned back numerous primary challengers in the past. I think Landon should be fine here.
HD-10 (Eastern Laramie County):
Wyoming Caucus Republican incumbent John Eklund is facing a primary challenge from non-aligned nonprofit director Jennifer James in this deeply Republican district. James doesn’t really have any campaign presence online and hasn’t raised much, if any, money for this campaign, so Eklund should win this pretty easily.
HD-11 (Central Cheyenne):
With Wyoming Caucus Republican incumbent Jared Olsen running for State Senate, two candidates are running to replace him in this Republican-leaning district: Wyoming Caucus-aligned political aide Seth Ulvestad and Freedom Caucus-aligned conservative activist Jacob Wasserburger.
Ulvestad is focused on growing the local economy and raising education standards, while Wasserburger wants to lower property taxes, protect “parental rights” in education, and “bring people closer to the society,” whatever the hell that means. Ulvestad has a wide fundraising lead over Wasserburger and the more competitive nature of this district means that he should be fine. Though if Wasserburger wins, that could open the door for the Democrat to flip this district in November.
HD-12 (Southern Cheyenne outskirts):
Freedom Caucus Republican incumbent Clarence Styvar faces a primary challenge from Wyoming Caucus-aligned teacher Thomas Lear in this deeply Republican district. Lear, who used to be a registered Democrat until February, wants to bring “civility” back to politics and has promised not to attack Styvar. He also opposes school vouchers and is indifferent to DEI initiatives. Styvar is the opposite, attacking Lear on his campaign Facebook page and supporting school choice. The two have actually matched each other in fundraising, but Styvar should be fine here. His incumbency advantage should be enough to give him the win.
HD-15 (Western Carbon County):
Wyoming Caucus Republican incumbent Donald Burkhart is retiring from this deeply Republican district, so three candidates are running to replace him: nonaligned Rawlins Mayor Terry Weickum, nonaligned Rawlins city official Pam Thayer, and nonaligned nonprofit director Sheryl Foland. Yeah none of these three have any real online campaign presence and haven’t raised much money (especially Foland, who’s raised nothing). Weickum and Thayer both seem like they'd be more aligned with the Wyoming Caucus (neither being bombastic and Thayer outright saying she’s against school vouchers), but they’re both pretty wishy-washy about it. If I had to guess, I’d go with Weickum winning just because of his name recognition as Mayor of Rawlins, but I’m flying pretty blind here.
HD-17 (Southern Rock Springs):
Wyoming Caucus Republican incumbent J.T. Larson is facing a primary challenge from Freedom Caucus-aligned firefighter Terry Ellison in this deeply Republican district. While Larson is running on his legislative record and supporting local issues, Ellison is running hard to his right, supporting the 2nd Amendment, opposing abortion, and supporting “election integrity.” Larson does have the fundraising advantage though and the backing of the Koch-aligned Americans for Prosperity group. I think that’ll ultimately push him over the finish line, despite Ellison trying to attack Larson for “keeping Donald Trump off the ballot,” whatever that means.
HD-18 (Southwestern Wyoming):
Freedom Caucus Republican incumbent Scott Heiner is facing a primary challenge from Wyoming Caucus-aligned former State Representative Thomas Crank in this deeply Republican district. Crank, who lost to Heiner in the 2020 primary for this seat by just 10 votes, is attacking the incumbent for his bombastic attitude and for attacking Governor Mark Gordon. Crank has pointed to his legislative record in the House as to why voters should vote for him. Meanwhile, Crank is pointing to his record of trying to pass property tax relief. The two have pretty much matched each other in fundraising, which makes me think that Heiner narrowly pulls this one off (his incumbency being the deciding factor).
HD-19 (Uinta County):
Wyoming Caucus Republican incumbent Jon Conrad faces a primary challenge from Freedom Caucus-aligned conservative activist Joe Webb in this deeply Republican district. Conrad hasn’t had a good history with the Uinta County GOP, starting from his 2022 primary win. Uinta County GOP Chairwoman Elisabeth Jackson decided to endorse Webb as a write-in candidate in November instead of Conrad because Conrad wasn’t conservative enough. Webb got 30% of the vote in November (compared to Conrad’s 58%), so there’s definitely some conservative resentment against Conrad here. However, this year, Webb doesn’t seem to have any sort of campaign presence online. He has raised a decent amount of money, but I think Conrad’s incumbency should be enough to give him the win here.
HD-20 (Sublette County):
With Wyoming Caucus Republican incumbent/State House Speaker Albert Sommers running for State Senate, two Republicans are running to replace him: Wyoming Caucus-aligned rancher Cat Urbigkit and Freedom Caucus-aligned businessman Mike Schmid.
Schmid, who ran against Sommers in 2022 and lost by 19 points, is running on supporting property tax relief, protecting local wildlife, and maintaining local energy production. Urbigkit has attacked the Freedom Caucus for being too bombastic and is mostly focused on improving energy production, supporting farmers/ranchers, and finding “common sense solutions.” She does have the fundraising lead and is pretty well known in Sublette County for running the Sublette County GOP, so she’ll probably win this one.
HD-21 (Western Lincoln County):
Wyoming Caucus Republican incumbent Lane Allred is retiring from this deeply Republican district, so two Republicans are running to replace him: Freedom Caucus-aligned teacher McKay Erickson and nonaligned businessman Deb Wolfley. Erickson is running as an outsider, promising to fight for property tax relief, opposing “woke ideologies” in classrooms, and supporting a transgender athlete ban. Wofley doesn’t have much of a campaign presence and hasn’t raised much money, so Erickson should be the favorite here.
HD-24 (Western Park County):
Wyoming Caucus Republican incumbent Sandy Newsome is retiring from this deeply Republican district, so two candidates are running to replace her: Wyoming Caucus-aligned Mayor of Cody Matt Hall and Freedom Caucus-aligned Wyoming Republican National Committeewoman Nina Webber.
Hall wants to continue the work Newsome has started, focusing on Cody’s tourism industry and maintain fiscally conservative budgets. Webber is a bit more of a bomb thrower, attacking Hall as a RINO and promising to fight against new taxes. Hall has a wide fundraising lead, but Webber is hoping that her name recognition from her previous runs against Newsome will be enough to win. I doubt that and I think Hall wins this one.
HD-25 (Powell):
Wyoming Caucus Republican incumbent David Northrup is facing a primary challenge from Freedom Caucus-aligned conservative activist Paul Hoeft in this deeply Republican district. Hoeft has attacked Northrup for not being conservative enough and even calls him “very liberal” a few times on his website. He also supports stopping illegal immigration, supporting school choice, and protecting the 2nd Amendment. Northrup has defended his record and says that he’s focused on property tax relief and school choice. Northrup also has a wide fundraising lead, so he should be fine here.
HD-27 (Washakie County):
Freedom Caucus-aligned Republican incumbent Martha Lawley is facing a primary challenge from Freedom Caucus-aligned businesswoman Tami Young in this deeply Republican district. As far as I can tell, there’s no major policy difference between these two. They’re both right-wing culture warriors (anti-abortion, anti-”woke,” etc.) who would be in the Freedom Caucus if they won. They’ve also matched each other in fundraising, so I think Lawley wins this just based on the incumbency factor.
HD-28 (Central Wyoming):
Wyoming Freedom Caucus Republican incumbent John Winter is facing a primary challenge from nonaligned park superintendent Kevin Skates in this deeply Republican district. Skates hasn’t raised much money, but is focused on property tax relief and touts his “ability to disagree.” Yeah, Winter should be fine here thanks to his incumbency.
HD-30 (Central Sheridan County):
With Freedom Caucus Republican incumbent Mark Jennings running for State Senate, two candidates are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: Wyoming Caucus-aligned US Navy veteran Gail Symons and Freedom Caucus-aligned conservative activist Tom Kelly.
Symons is calling her campaign “Wyoming Focused,” and promotes lowering property taxes, funding mental health resources, and expanding the economy. Kelly is more focused on social issues, supporting the 2nd Amendment, opposing abortion, and stopping the funding of DEI initiatives. Symons has the wide fundraising lead over Kelly, but Kelly is backed by retiring Representative Jennings. Is it enough to give him the win? I don’t think so and the Wyoming Caucus will manage to flip a district from the Freedom Caucus with a Symons win.
HD-32 (Western Gillette):
Wyoming Caucus Republican incumbent Ken Clouston is facing a primary challenge from Freedom Caucus-aligned businessman George Dunlap in this deeply Republican district. Dunlap is calling himself a “warrior for Wyoming,” and is focusing on reducing property taxes, supporting the 2nd Amendment, and opposing abortion. Clouston has mostly focused on his legislative record, specifically when it comes to mining and tourism. Clouston also has the slight fundraising lead, so he’ll probably be fine here against Dunlap.
HD-34 (Eastern Fremont County):
Freedom Caucus Republican incumbent Pepper Ottman is facing a primary challenge from Wyoming Caucus-aligned farmer Reg Phillips in this deeply Republican district. Phillips has attacked the Freedom Caucus for being too divisive, while Ottman is defending her record of delivering results for local communities. The two candidates are pretty evenly matched in fundraising, so Ottman’s incumbency should give her the win here.
HD-35 (Eastern Casper):
Freedom Caucus Republican incumbent Tony Locke is running for reelection, but he first has to get through Wyoming Caucus-aligned school administrator Chris Dresang in this deeply Republican district. Dresang, who cites Hunter S. Thompson as an inspiration to run, has attacked Locke and the rest of the Freedom Caucus, claiming that their attacks on businesses who enforced COVID mandates are actually a form of government overreach. Dresang has also slightly beaten Locke in the fundraising department, but I still think Locke pulls this one out thanks to incumbency.
HD-38 (Western Natrona County):
Wyoming Caucus Republican incumbent Tom Walters faces a challenge from Freedom Caucus-aligned conservative activist Jayme Lien in this deeply Republican district. Lien is promoting herself as someone who will vote against taxes, defend the 2nd Amendment, and “ask the tough questions.” She’s also been saying that HD-38 has been lacking a TRUE voice of the residents, but Walters has been easily able to turn back primary challenges in recent cycles. This one should be no different, as Walters has outpaced Lien in the fundraising department and has the power of incumbency on his side.
HD-39 (Western Rock Springs):
This one’s pretty interesting, Wyoming Caucus Republican incumbent Cody Wylie faces two challengers in the Republican primary for this deeply Republican district: nonaligned former Libertarian State Representative Marshall Burt & Freedom Caucus-aligned accountant Laura McKee.
So Burt flipped this district from the Democrats in 2020 while running as a Libertarian (with no Republican running), but then he faced Wylie in 2022 and lost by a wide margin. Now he’s back as a Republican. He’s still mostly a Libertarian, but left the party thanks to huge amounts of infighting. He’s attacked the Freedom Caucus, calling them panderers who use cheap punchlines, and he’s attacked Wylie as a “big government supporter.” So he hates both the Wyoming Caucus and the Freedom Caucus. McKee, on the other hand, is much simpler to pin down. She’s a far-right conservative, supporting the 2nd Amendment, supporting “election integrity,” and opposing transgender rights.
Wylie (who’s running on his results-driven voting record) has a wide fundraising lead over McKee & Burt (who’s only raised a few hundred dollars). He should be fine here, especially with a split opposition, though it’ll be interesting to see if Burt gets a decent amount of the vote.
HD-40 (Johnson County):
With Wyoming Caucus Republican incumbent Barry Cargo running for State Senate, three candidates are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: Wyoming Caucus-aligned former Johnson County Commissioner Marilyn Connolly, Freedom Caucus-aligned conservative activist Liberty Poley (with that name did you expect anything different?), and Freedom Caucus-aligned gun lobbyist Mark Jones.
Connolly is running on a platform of addressing local issues. Poley is running hard to her right, highlighting her support for the 2nd Amendment, opposition to illegal immigration, and support for school choice. Jones is running on a similar platform as Poley, opposing abortion, supporting “parental rights” in education, and saying Wyoming should resist “government overreach.” Connolly has the wide fundraising advantage, with Poley raising a decent amount of money and Jones not raising much at all. Despite the lack of fundraising, Jones does have the backing of several Freedom Caucus State Representatives and the NRA. I think Connolly pulls this one out, mostly thanks to her fundraising advantage and the two Freedom Caucusers splitting the far-right vote.
HD-41 (North-Central Cheyenne):
Wyoming Caucus Republican incumbent Bill Henderson is facing a primary challenge from Freedom Caucus-aligned conservative activist Gary Brown in this Republican-leaning district. Brown launched this challenge after Henderson ignored his questions on some votes. Now Brown is challenging Henderson from the right, calling him “extremely liberal.” Brown also opposes abortion, supports cutting spending, and supports lowering property taxes. He is lagging pretty far behind Henderson in fundraising though and I don’t know how well a right-wing primary challenge will do in such a competitive district (only backing President Trump by 6 in 2020). As such, Henderson should be favored here.
HD-42 (Western Laramie County):
Freedom Caucus Republican incumbent Ben Hornok is facing a primary challenge from Wyoming Caucus-aligned engineer Rob Geringer in this deeply Republican district. Geringer, the son of former Governor Jim Geringer, is running as a moderate. He has decried the lack of “common courtesy” in the State House and wants to expand alternative energy production. Hornok is a culture warrior through and through, supporting bills that would prosecute teachers/librarians for possessing “obscene materials” for educational purposes, wanting to cut spending, and supporting a bill that would force all Wyoming unemployment beneficiaries to undergo drug testing. Geringer has outpaced Hornok in fundraising and his last name does give him sort of a name recognition boost. He’s also backed by a lot of conservative-leaning industry groups. I’ll make what’s probably a bold call here, I think Geringer wins this one. I’m not confident at all in this, but all the signs are pointing to Hornok losing.
HD-43 (Eastern Cheyenne Outskirts):
Wyoming Caucus Republican incumbent Dan Zwonitzer is facing a stiff primary challenge from Freedom Caucus-aligned businesswoman Ann Lucas in this deeply Republican district. Zwonitzer, who’s served since 2004 and was one of the first pro-gay Republicans in that time period, is a moderate through and through. He’s attacked the Freedom Caucus for being too bombastic & divisive and has pointed to his efforts to lower healthcare costs in the State House. Lucas has attacked Zwonitzer for being “too liberal” and is running on a platform opposing “big government,” supporting the 2nd Amendment, and wants to get rid of “sexual ideologies” in schools. Lucas has slightly outpaced Zwonitzer in fundraising, though Zwonitzer does have the support of several conservative-leaning industry groups. Zwonitzer narrowly survived against a Freedom Caucus opponent in 2022 (winning by eight points), so I think he’ll narrowly win again this year. It would be a real shame to lose such a pro-gay Republican who fights back against his own party on the issue, but Wyoming Republicans are getting farther and farther right-wing every year, so I don’t know how much longer he’ll be able to hold on. For this year though, I think he’ll narrowly hold on.
HD-44 (Southern Cheyenne):
Freedom Caucus Republican incumbent Tamara Trujillo is facing two primary challengers in this solidly Republican seat: Wyoming Caucus-aligned former State Representative John Romero-Martinez (who is also Trujillo’s cousin) and nonaligned former Democratic State Representative Lee Flier.
To say that there’s a family feud between Trujillo & Romero-Martinez is probably an understatement. Trujillo unseated Romero-Martinez in the 2022 primaries by 11 points and since then, Romero-Martinez has filed an ethics complaint against Trujillo for voting in New Mexico for over a decade despite being a resident of Wyoming. That hasn’t gone anywhere, but the bad blood remains. Aside from family drama, both Romero-Martinez and Flier are moderates, with Romero-Martinez wanting to expand Medicaid and Flier decrying both the Wyoming Caucus & Freedom Caucus as being “too divisive.” All three candidates are pretty close in fundraising, which makes me think that Trujillo wins this one. She’s got incumbency on her side now alongside a split opposition.
HD-48 (Northern Rock Springs):
Wyoming Caucus Republican incumbent/House Speaker pro tempore Clark Stith is facing a challenge from Freedom Caucus-aligned conservative activist Darin McCann in this deeply Republican district. It’s been a pretty low-profile race (with McCann having no real online campaign presence), with the only major thing coming out of this district being Stith arguing that McCann shouldn’t even be eligible to vote because he only registered as a Republican a few days after the candidate filing deadline opened (which would be a violation of a stupid new law that discourages Democrats from registering as Republicans to vote in their primaries). State Secretary of State Chuck Gray (a far-right Republican) has pushed back against Stith’s interpretation of the law, but this may have given some publicity to McCann that he wouldn’t have gotten otherwise. Something has to help him though if he wants to win, as McCann hasn’t raised that much money and Stith has the power of incumbency on his side. As such, I think Stith wins this one pretty easily.
HD-49 (Evanston):
Wyoming Caucus Republican incumbent Ryan Berger is facing a challenge from nonaligned former State Representative Robert Wharff in this deeply Republican district. Wharff is a pretty right-wing guy, but he split from the Freedom Caucus in his final months in the legislature back in 2022 over their bombastic attitudes. That hasn’t stopped Wharff from being bombastic though, as he’s called Berger “left-of-center” and previously faced questions over his rude and uncivil behavior while he was in the State House. He’s backed by the NRA this time around, but Berger has maintained a wide fundraising lead over him. As such, Berger will probably win this one.
HD-50 (Northern Park County):
Freedom Caucus Republican incumbent Rachel Rodriguez-Williams is facing a primary challenge from nonaligned attorney David Hill in this deeply Republican district. While Rodriguez-Williams is running proudly on her firebrand conservative record in the House (especially on abortion), Hill is running as a more calm conservative. He shares a lot of the same views Rodriguez-Williams has, but hates how bombastic the Freedom Caucus is. He also doesn’t like the Wyoming Caucus because he believes they’re too divisive. The fence sitting may be annoying to some, but he does have the fundraising lead over Rodriguez-Williams and has the backing of several conservative-leaning industry groups. Despite that, I think Rodriguez-Williams’s incumbency and general lack of controversy will be enough to give her the win.
HD-54 (Lander):
Wyoming Caucus Republican incumbent Lloyd Larsen is facing a primary challenge from Freedom Caucus-aligned conservative activist Tina Clifford in this solidly Republican district. Clifford is running as a culture warrior, decrying COVID vaccines as “experimental shots,” supporting the 2nd Amendment, and supporting “election integrity.” The more moderate Larsen has outpaced her in fundraising and has incumbency on his side, so he should be able to win this one. Hell, the only thing Clifford’s gotten attention for doing in this race is pulling out of a debate with Larsen because the debate was sponsored by the League of Women Voters.
HD-55 (Riverton):
Wyoming Caucus Republican incumbent Ember Oakley is facing a primary challenge from Freedom Caucus-aligned former school board member Joel Guggenmos in this deeply Republican district. Guggenmos is a bit out there to say the least. I’m not talking about his whole reason for running (saying that he would neglect a responsibility given to him by God if he didn’t), I’m talking about how back in 2022 he was investigated by the Wyoming Department of Family Services for taking his 13 year old son off of chemotherapy for his Leukemia because he believed it wasn’t necessary. His son’s in remission now, thankfully, so Guggenmos’s stunt didn’t affect him. Anyway, while Oakley is running on a platform of trying to restore “civility” to the State House, Guggenmos is running hard to her right (wanting to abolish property taxes and defund DEI initiatives). Still though, Oakley has easily lapped Guggenmos in the fundraising department, so she should be fine here.
HD-56 (Western Casper):
Wyoming Caucus Republican incumbent Jerry Obermueller is retiring from this deeply Republican district, so three candidates are running to replace him: Wyoming Caucus-aligned businesswoman Elissa Campbell, nonaligned oil engineer Pete Fox, and Freedom Caucus-aligned US Marine Corps veteran Pamela Mertens.
Campbell is running as a standard Republican, supporting the 2nd Amendment, expanding alternative energy production, and “fiscal responsibility.” Fox is running on a similar platform, but also supports banning gun-free zones (and says that he wouldn’t join either the Wyoming Caucus or the Freedom Caucus). Finally, Mertens is running hard to the right, opposing abortion, claiming that multiple US Constitutional Amendments have been “bastardized,” and supporting “parental rights” in education. She also has a website that is so poorly designed that two 90s style gifs of horses take up 75% of the screen.
Anyway, Campbell has the wide fundraising advantage with Fox only raising about half of what Campbell has raised. Meanwhile, Mertens has only raised a few hundred dollars for her campaign. I think Campbell will probably win this one based on her financial advantage, but a Fox win wouldn’t shock me.
HD-57 (Central Casper):
Being from Illinois, Freedom Caucus Republican incumbent Jeanette Ward is a somewhat familiar name to me. The former Elgin, Illinois school board member was the Republican nominee for one of Illinois’s most high-profile State Senate races in 2020. She lost that race by a few thousand votes and immediately decided to move to Wyoming afterwards. Now calling herself a “political refugee,” she won the Republican primary for this deeply Republican seat in 2022 and has since established herself as a pretty prominent member of the Freedom Caucus.
She’s facing a challenge from Wyoming Caucus-aligned school administrator Julie Jarvis this year. Jarvis is running as a more standard Republican than Ward (who’s been a major bomb thrower in her first two years in office), calling for a return to “collaborative instruction” and supporting “parental rights” in education. She’s also stressing her Wyoming roots, talking about her family’s history in Wyoming (obviously trying to draw a contrast with Ward, who’s only been here for a few years). She’s nearly doubled up Ward in the fundraising department too, so she’s definitely a serious candidate. Still though, I think Ward wins this one. This part of Casper loves its far-right Representatives (before Ward represented this district, far-right Secretary of State Chuck Grey represented it) and Ward has the power of incumbency on her side. Still though, I wouldn’t count out Jarvis.
HD-58 (Northern Natrona County):
Freedom Caucus Republican incumbent Bill Allemand is facing a primary challenge from nonaligned rancher Tom Jones in this deeply Republican district. Jones doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online and has heavily lagged behind Allemand in the fundraising department, so Allemand should be fine here.
HD-60 (Green River):
Wyoming Caucus Republican incumbent Tony Niemiec faces a primary challenge from Freedom Caucus-aligned conservative activist Marlene Brady in this deeply Republican district. Brady is calling herself the only “true conservative” in this race and promises to give this district “back to the people.” She also wants to lower property taxes, enforce “fiscal responsibility,” and support “election integrity.” Her problem though is that she hasn’t been able to match Niemiec in the fundraising department. That, alongside the incumbency advantage, should be enough to give Niemiec the win here.
HD-61 (Eastern Cheyenne):
Freedom Caucus Republican incumbent Daniel Singh is facing a primary challenge from Wyoming Caucus-aligned political aide Matt Malcom in this deeply Republican district. Malcolm has attacked Singh for being too combative and for voting against bills that would expand Medicaid & ban gender-affirming care for minors. Singh has defended his record, saying he models himself after former US Senator Mike Enzi and has backhandedly said he wouldn’t use Malcom’s “lack of experience” against him in this race. Kind of an ass thing to say, but hey politics is politics. Anyway, Malcom has slightly outpaced Singh in the fundraising department, but neither man has raised much money. That means that Singh should probably be fine here. He’s probably a rising star for the Freedom Caucus (being one of the only Gen Z members of the Wyoming Legislature), so he’s got bigger things in store for him for sure and a win tonight would only cement that status.
HD-62 (Eastern Natrona/western Converse Counties):
Wyoming Caucus Republican incumbent Forrest Chadwick is retiring from this deeply Republican district (probably because he’s been embroiled with in-fighting with the far-right over in the Converse County GOP), so two Republicans are running to replace him: Freedom Caucus-aligned businessman Edis Allen and Freedom Caucus-aligned conservative activist Kevin Campbell.
Campbell doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but has said that he is “sick and tired” of Republicans “acting like Democrats.” Allen is running a campaign promoting “freedom” and “conservative values.” Very vague from both men for sure. Campbell has the slight fundraising lead, but Allen has the backing of the Koch-aligned Americans for Prosperity group. In this low-key of a race, that should be enough to give him the win and I think it certainly will.
Once all the primaries are done, I’ll probably post the final totals on Twitter for who won the battle between the Wyoming Caucus and the Freedom Caucus. That will massively affect how Wyoming politics shake out over the next two years, but we’re getting a bit too far ahead of ourselves now.
That’s all for this edition of Grand Old Primary! Before I go, it’s time to go over my track record again for the sake of transparency. So, here’s how I did in last week’s primaries:
CONNECTICUT- 2 RACES PREDICTED, 2 CORRECT
(100% CORRECT)
VERMONT- 5 RACES PREDICTED, 3 CORRECT (HD-Caledonia 1 & HD-Rutland Bennington) (Goes to show how hard it is to predict primaries in such small districts)
(60% CORRECT)
MINNESOTA- 13 RACES PREDICTED, 13 CORRECT, 1 FAILED TO PREDICT (Yes, I missed the HD-10A primary, so I am counting that as a failed prediction because I didn’t predict it)
(93% CORRECT)
WISCONSIN- 26 RACES PREDICTED, 25 CORRECT, 1 FAILED TO PREDICT (Missed HD-27 and forgot about the HD-55 primary. That one was an incumbent vs incumbent primary too, so I apologize for not covering that))
(92% CORRECT)
Really proud of how I did this time around, though I will be more careful to make sure I’m covering all the primaries. Anyway, I’ll be back next week to cover the Republican runoffs in Oklahoma, so until then, you can follow me on Twitter at @Uncrewed and don’t forget to be awesome!