Grand Old Primary- August 6th, 2024 (Kansas Edition)
Covering all the major Republican primaries in Kansas!
GRAND OLD PRIMARY- AUGUST 6th, 2024 (Kansas Edition)
INTRO:
Hello everyone and welcome to another exciting edition of Grand Old Primary! If you’re new here, Grand Old Primary is a series where I cover all the most important Republican primaries going on throughout the country. From Congress to the State Legislature to even a few county races, they’re all here folks. We’ve got four states holding primaries today, so we’re starting in the great state of Kansas! Let’s get to it!
KS-01 (Western Kansas):
Republican incumbent Tracey Mann is running for reelection in this deeply Republican district (having last sent a Democrat to Congress in 1952). He first has to fend off physical therapist Eric Bloom. He almost certainly will as Bloom has raised no money and has no campaign presence anywhere online.
KS-02 (Eastern Kansas):
Republican incumbent Jake LaTurner is retiring from this solidly Republican district, which means five Republicans are stepping up to replace him: former Kansas Attorney General.2022 Governor nominee Derek Schmidt, political aide Jeff Kahrs, Kansas Livestock Association President Shawn Tiffany, US Army veteran/convicted felon Michael Ogle, and boxing instructor Chad Young.
Schmidt has the fundraising lead and some heavy hitters in his corner like former President Trump and the Fraternal Order of Police. Kahrs has kept pace in fundraising (mostly thanks to self-funding) and has the backing of former Governor Sam Brownback (which might be a curse more than a blessing). Tiffany has also raised a good amount of money, while Ogle and Young are flailing behind.
All of these candidates are running on a very similar platform (fighting immigration, wokeness, etc.), though I should mention that Schmidt really hasn’t said what his platform is. He was a moderate before he became AG, but moved pretty hard to the right by the time he ran for Governor in 2022. As for this run, he hasn’t said much outside of vague promises to protect farmers and the unborn. Though the Trump endorsement should probably tell you what his platform is more than anything. Anyway, Schmidt should be the favorite thanks to his great name recognition. Don’t believe me? Well, the only poll we have of the race shows Schmidt up 40 points over Kahrs and Tiffany! It was from May, but still it shows that Schmidt is the favorite.
SD-01 (Northeastern Kansas):
Republican incumbent Dennis Pyle is an interesting guy. He’s a very conservative State Senator (as to be expected in this deeply Republican district), but he’s also voted against the GOP on numerous occasions. Most notably he voted against the GOP’s tax cut packages and voted not to override Governor Kelly’s veto of the state’s Congressional maps. Hell, he even ran as an independent in the 2022 Governor’s race and took 20,000 votes (less than the margin of victory, but still significant).
All of this has led to two Republicans stepping up to face him: State Representative John Eplee and businessman Craig Bowser. Pyle’s running as a self-proclaimed “maverick,” while Eplee and Bowser are running as more normal Republicans, wanting to cut taxes and protect farmers.
Pyle might be calling himself a maverick, but it’s not helping his campaign that much. His fundraising has pretty much dried up and nobody really wants to endorse him. Meanwhile, Eplee and Bowser are neck and neck in fundraising, leading me to think that this race is probably going to come down between those two rather than Pyle. If I had to guess, I’d say Eplee’s name recognition as a State Representative pulls him over the finish line, but Bowser could pull it off. All I know is that Pyle isn’t winning and might even come in last place.
SD-05 (Leavenworth/western Kansas City):
The Republicans are eager to flip this Trump+7 seat currently held by Democratic Senator Jeff Pittman, but first they have to nominate a candidate of their own. They’ll pick from a group of two people: businessman Jeff Klemp and teacher Echo Van Meteren.
Van Meteren is running as a pretty bog-standard conservative, promising to cut taxes and promote school choice. Klemp is a bit to her right, focusing on lowering taxes and securing the border. While Van Meteren has a fundraising advantage, Klemp has been the recent beneficiary of the Koch-aligned Americans For Prosperity group. The group has dumped money into this district on ads, canvassing, the whole nine yards. Because of that, I think Klemp pulls this one off, setting the stage for a high-profile November race against Pittman.
SD-09 (Southern Leavenworth/western Johnson Counties):
Republican incumbent Beverly Gossage is facing a challenge from US Army veteran Bryan Zesiger in this solidly Republican district. Zesiger, who calls himself “Z Man,” is running a pretty solidly right-wing campaign promising to end “taxation without justification” and to promote “traditional values.” Gossage, on the other hand, is running a culture war heavy campaign, focusing on her efforts to ban “DEI programs” at universities and banning gender-affirming care for minors. Gossage should win here, mostly because I don’t think Zesiger has done much to stand out from her.
SD-12 (Eastern Kansas):
Republican incumbent Caryn Tyson (who ran for Congress back in 2018 and nearly won) is running for reelection in this deeply Republican district, but first she has to face pipefitter Stetson Kern. Kern’s running a pretty right-wing campaign, but doesn’t really have much campaign infrastructure available online, so Tyson should be fine here.
SD-13 (Southeastern Kansas):
Republican incumbent Tim Shallenburger is facing a challenge in this deeply Republican district from cattle rancher Sam Owen. Owen hasn’t raised much money and has no real campaign infrastructure, so advantage to Shallenburger.
SD-17 (Lyon/Geary/Morris Counties):
With Republican incumbent Jeff Longbine not running for re-election in this solidly Republican district, two men have stepped up to replace him: school superintendent Mike Argabright and businessman David Schneider.
Argabright is running on a pretty traditional Republican platform (cutting property taxes, honoring first responders, etc.), while Schneider is running to his right (calling himself an “America First Conservative” and focusing on election integrity and defending “religious freedom”). Neither candidate has reported anything in fundraising, but Argabright is being backed by pretty much every conservative organization in the books and retiring Senator Longbine. Because of that, I’ll give him the advantage.
SD-20 (Wabaunsee/Western Shawnee Counties):
Republican incumbent Brenda Dietrich is running for re-election in this solidly Republican district, but first she has to get through former State Representative Josh Powell in the primary.
Dietrich’s one of the more moderate Republicans in the Senate, focusing more so on economic issues while taking more liberal stances on cultural issues (she’s pro-Medicaid expansion and says that she respects the wishes of the voters regarding abortion). Powell has pounced on her for that, claiming that Dietrich voted to allow “men to participate in women’s sports.” He’s also blamed rising violent political rhetoric on the media for “taking comments out of context,” which ok bud. Anyway, Dietrich is being backed by everyone from the Fraternal Order of Police to the Farm Bureau to the Kansas Chamber of Commerce. Powell’s only major backer seems to be former KS-02 Congressman Jim Ryun.
Dietrich should be fine here, the district isn’t conservative enough to throw her out over her more moderate positions and Powell really hasn’t raised that much money.
SD-26 (Western Sedgwick County):
Republican incumbent Chase Blasi is facing a challenge in this deeply Republican district from former State Representative J.C. Moore.
Blasi’s focusing on his conservative voting record, while Moore is trying to run to his left (coming out against a transgender individuals in sports ban and against bills that would restrict when mail-in ballots can arrive). It’s probably not going to work as Blasi is leading him in fundraising and endorsements (the Kansas Chamber of Commerce and NRA are the two big wins). Blasi should win this pretty comfortably.
SD-33 (Central Kansas):
Republican incumbent Alicia Straub is retiring, so two Republicans have stepped up to replace her in this deeply Republican district: State Representative Tory Marie Blew and school board member John Sturn.
Blew, who calls herself a “common sense conservative,” is running on her record from the State House (most notably her votes to cut regulations and lower taxes for businesses). Sturn is running on a platform focusing on improving public education and fighting against the “Brownback Tax Lobby.” Blew should be the favorite here, having several key endorsements (most notably the Farm Bureau) and a wide fundraising advantage.
SD-34 (Reno/Barber/Kingman Counties):
With Republican incumbent Mark Steffen not running for re-election, we’ve got two men who’ve stepped up to replace him in this deeply Republican district: State Representative Michael Murphy and insurance agent Bob Fee.
Both men are solidly right-wing, with Fee promising to “stand up to the left” and Murphy complaining on his official campaign Facebook page about the World Economic Forum and ESG guidelines. Fee has a big fundraising advantage though, which should be enough to push him over the finish line. Though I’m not counting out Murphy thanks to his name recognition.
SD-36 (Northern Kansas):
Republican incumbent Elaine Bowers is facing a challenge from conservative activist Robert Bonanata in this deeply Republican district. Bonanata has no real campaign website and hasn’t raised any money, so Bowers should win this easily.
HD-04 (Bourbon/Linn Counties):
With Republican incumbent Trevor Jacobs retiring from this deeply Republican district, two Republicans are running to replace him: former Linn County Commissioner Rick James and former Fort Scott City Commissioner Joshua Jones.
James is running on a pretty standard right-wing platform (lower taxes, protecting the 2nd Amendment and the unborn), while Jones is running on transparency (promising to be more open as a State Rep) and against government restrictions. Neither candidate has reported any fundraising and I cannot find any endorsements. So, shot in the dark here, I’d say James wins, but again flying pretty blind here.
HD-33 (Western Wyandotte County):
Republican incumbent Mike Thompson is running for reelection in this competitive (albeit Republican-trending) district, but first he has to get through anti-abortion activist Clifton Boje. I cannot find anything about Boje’s campaign online and he hasn’t reported raising any money, so advantage to Thompson.
HD-41 (Leavenworth area):
Republican incumbent Pat Proctor is running for reelection in this solidly Republican district, but he first has to get through conservative activist Robert Owens. He should be able to beat Owens easily, as Owens hasn’t raised any money and has a campaign website that’s so glitched out it’s not even funny.
HD-42 (Western Leavenworth County):
Republican incumbent Lance Neelly is facing Leavenworth County Commissioner Mike Stieben in the Republican primary in this deeply Republican district.
Stieben’s running on a pretty traditional Republican campaign (property tax reform, building the economy, etc.), while Neelly is running to his right, claiming that Stieben is a moderate and is pointing to his record on standing up to President Biden (despite only being a member of the Kansas Legislature? Like, c’mon Lance this is a stretch). Either way, I think Neelly wins this one thanks to a nice fundraising advantage.
HD-51 (Wabaunsee County area):
With Republican incumbent Kenny Titus running for State Senate, two Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: nurse Megan Steele and political aide Eli Kormanik.
Both candidates are pretty right-wing, with Steele promising to fight “influencers” who use “transgenderism” as a weapon against young people and Kormanik promising to take men out of women’s sports and fight “big tech.” Neither candidate has reported raising any money, but Steele does have the endorsement from Kansans for Life. For that, I’ll give the edge to her, but this is really a shot in the dark.
HD-60 (Emporia area):
In one of the few races in Kansas this year where the incumbent losing can seriously damage the party’s hopes of winning in November, Republican incumbent Mark Schreiber is squaring off against businessman Will Spencer.
Spencer is running a pretty standard conservative campaign, running on lowering taxes and improving benefits to veterans, so why do I think that the Democrats would have a much better shot at flipping this marginal district (Biden+0.2 in 2020) if Spencer wins? Fundraising. Spencer only has a couple hundred dollars on hand, so that’ll put him at a disadvantage against Democratic nominee/pastor Mic McGuire in November.
The good news for Republicans? I think Schreiber probably wins this easily. Incumbency is a big factor here and Spencer hasn’t really run much of a campaign (at least online).
HD-62 (Nemaha/Brown Counties):
Republican incumbent Randy Garber is running for State Senate, so he’s leaving this deeply Republican district to be fought between three candidates: businessman Sean Willcott, businesswoman Dort Goodman, and Nemaha County Commissioner Dylan Keim.
All three are pretty similar policy-wise, focusing on cutting taxes and empowering businesses. With no campaign finance data available, we’re going to have to rely on endorsements to really figure out who’s the favorite. Wilcott is backed by the Koch-aligned Americans for Prosperity, while Goodman is backed by Kansans For Life. To be honest, this is another one where I’m kind of flying blind due to a lack of info, but I have to make a guess, so let’s give the win to Willcott. Mostly because we know that Americans for Prosperity backing usually comes with canvassing help and advertising, which could be crucial in such a competitive district.
HD-65 (Junction City area):
Republican incumbent Jeff Underhill is facing a challenge from builder Shawn Chauncey in this solidly Republican district. There’s not that much difference between Chauncey and Underhill when it comes to policy, plus Chauncey hasn’t really raised that much money. Oh, let me rephrase that, Chauncey has an AI-generated image of him catching a marlin on his campaign website. This will obviously be the deciding factor and Chauncey is on track to get 1000000% of the vote. Sarcasm aside, Underhill should win easily.
HD-67 (Western Manhattan):
With Republican incumbent Mike Dodson retiring from this Democratic-leaning swing district (Biden+7 in 2020), the Republicans are going to have trouble holding this district in November. They’ll first have to choose a nominee to fight it in November though and two Republicans have stepped up to the plate: businesswoman Angel Roeser and conservative activist Kaleb James.
Roeser is running as a moderate, focusing heavily on investing in public education. James is probably the complete opposite, running as a culture warrior through and through (promising to “protect women's sports” and attacking Roeser for being endorsed by the Kansas Education Association). Roeser’s probably going to win this, but if James wins, you can pretty much write this district off as a Democratic flip in November.
HD-77 (Western Butler County):
Republican incumbent Kristey Williams is running for reelection in this deeply Republican district, but first she has to face school board member Doug Law.
Law’s running as a moderate, coming out in favor of expanding Medicaid and legalizing medical marijuana. Williams, on the other hand, is very much on the right flank of the party, sharing posts from the far-right Moms For Liberty group and coming out against Medicaid expansion. She is still the favorite here, having the backing of several influential groups (the Kansas Chamber of Commerce chief among them) and because Law doesn’t really have that much of a campaign presence (at least online).
HD-90 (Northern Sedgwick County):
Republican incumbent Carl Maughan is technically running for reelection in this deeply Republican district, but he ended his reelection campaign back at the end of May after he was charged with a DUI and carrying a gun while under the influence. He’s still on the ballot, but will presumably finish in last place.
Three other Republicans are also running: former State Representative Steve Huebert, businessman Jesse McCurry, and conservative activist James Pugh. All three are pretty similarly on the right flank of the party, so the endorsements are really the only thing separating them. Huebert is backed by Kansans for Life and the Kansas Chamber of Commerce, while McCurry is backed by the Wichita Chamber of Commerce. Huebert should be the favorite here, probably thanks to name recognition from representing this district for over 20 years before retiring in 2022.
HD-102 (Hutchinson):
This is got to be the Kansas GOP’s best opportunity for a flip this year. It’s a Trump+15 district in a Republican-trending area, though Democratic incumbent Jason Probst is a strong incumbent. Nevertheless, two Republicans are stepping up to face him: conservative activist Tyson Thrall and US Army veteran Kyler Sweely.
Both Thrall and Sweely are running as right-wingers, with Thrall promising to support limited government and “gender separation,” and Sweely supporting border security and tough-on-crime policies. They also have another thing in common, carpetbagging allegations. Yes, both men have been attacked by Probst for not being from the district. In Sweely’s case it’s pretty blatant, having been registered to vote in the next county over until the literal day before he filed to run against Probst. Whether that matters remains to be seen, but first we have to get to the winner of this primary. Total shot in the dark here, but I’m going to guess Thrall because he’s the only guy to report raising any money. Could just as easily be wrong and Sweely wins in a landslide, but who knows.
HD-105 (Western Wichita):
With Republican incumbent Brenda Landwehr retiring after nearly 30 years of serving in the State House in this solidly Republican district, two candidates are running to replace her: businessman David Hickman and businesswoman Jill Ward.
Both candidates have pretty similar right-wing platforms (pro-cutting taxes, anti-transgender issues) and neither have reported anything in fundraising, so we’re going to go to the endorsements to pick a winner here. Ward is enjoying the backing of the Kansas Chamber of Commerce and retiring Representative Landwehr, while Hickman is backed by Kansans For Life. As such, I’m picking Ward to win here.
HD-107 (Ottawa/Mitchell/Cloud Counties):
Republican incumbent Susan Concannon is retiring, so two candidates have thrown their hats in the ring to replace her in this deeply Republican district: Ottawa County Commissioner Dawn Wolf and US Army veteran Gerald Johnson.
Johnson is running pretty hard to the right (as he did when he lost to Concannon in the 2022 primary by 26 points), running on being pro-life (and claiming that the abortion industry is lining Democratic pockets with “blood money), pro-free market economy (which he calls “Biblical Economics”), and pro “health freedom” (it’s just complaining about COVID-19 mandates). Wolf, on the other hand, is running as a relatively normal Republican, running on tax cuts and “pro-family” values. She’s also being backed by numerous groups like the Kansas Farm Bureau and the Kansas Chamber of Commerce, so I’m going to give her the edge here over Johnson.
HD-114 (Kingman/southern Reno Counties):
With Republican incumbent Michael Murphy running for State Senate, two candidates have stepped up to replace him in this deeply Republican district: farmer Steve Schweizer and former school board member Kevin Schwertfeger.
Both men are running very right-wing campaigns, but let me just take a moment here and show you what Schwertger’s been saying, because it is genuinely some of the most insane stuff I’ve ever heard. Not insane as in “oh this guy is so right-wing he’s crazy!,” I’m talking insane as in I wouldn’t be shocked to see this scribbled on the wall of a mental institution:
If you can gather anything from that, then take my job. By the way, in that same interview, he responds to a question about expanding Medicaid by saying this:
“Kancare has not been expanded nor will it be because it leads to Socialized medicine.
Most Kansans are not Socialists… LOL”
I DID NOT ADD THAT “LOL”, HE PUT IT THERE I SWEAR TO ALL THAT IS HOLY!!!
And do you want to know the funniest thing about all of this? He’s probably the favorite to win. He’s endorsed by the Kansas Farm Bureau and Kansans For Life. At least I think he is, because his campaign website is all one big wall of white text on a red background that is making my eyes hurt. I should probably wrap this up, because it is 2:00 AM as I’m writing this and I’m going to go insane if I talk about this guy any longer. Advantage Schwertfeger.
HD-124 (Southwestern Kansas):
Despite representing such a deeply Republican district (Trump+65 in 2020), Republican incumbent David Younger has been one of the most moderate Republicans in the State House. He voted against a ban on gender-affirming care for minors and voted against the Republican proposal for a flat tax in the state. Seeing the writing on the wall, Younger retired rather than face a primary (which he almost certainly would have lost).
Two candidates are running to replace him: Grant County Commissioner/former State Representative Marty Long and Satanta City Councilman Benjamin Fuentes. Fuentes is running a pretty normal conservative campaign, focusing on reducing taxes and championing agricultural interests (though he is pointing to his youth as an advantage over Long’s experience). As for Long? I can’t really find much about his current campaign online. Though if his views haven’t changed since he left office, he’s probably running as a normal Republican (he did vote to expand Medicaid back in 2019 though). I’m kind of flying a bit blind here thanks to Long not having anything online about his campaign, but I’m going to give him the win here thanks to name recognition. Could easily be just as wrong and Fuentes pulls off the win. Moral of the story, put your campaign stuff online so I don’t have the potential to look dumb folks!
And that’s all for this edition of Grand Old Primary! I’ll be back in a few hours to cover all of Michigan’s primaries, but until then you can follow me on Twitter at @Uncrewed and don’t forget to stay awesome!