Grand Old Primary- August 6th, 2024 (Michigan Edition)
Covering all the major Republican primaries in Michigan!
GRAND OLD PRIMARY- AUGUST 6th, 2024 (Michigan Edition)
INTRO:
Hello everyone and welcome to another exciting edition of Grand Old Primary! If you’re new here, Grand Old Primary is a series where I cover all the most important Republican primaries going on throughout the country. From Congress to the State Legislature to even a few county races, they’re all here folks. We’ve got four states holding primaries today and we already covered Kansas, so we’re on to the great state of Michigan! Let’s get to it!
US Senate:
Republicans are optimistic they can flip this Senate seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow, but first they have to nominate a candidate. Three Republicans are hoping to be that candidate: former MI-08 Congressman Mike Rogers, former Republican-turned-Libertarian MI-03 Congressman Justin Amash, and doctor Sherry O’Donnell. A fourth candidate, businessman Sandy Pensler, is also on the ballot, but he withdrew last week and endorsed Rogers.
Rogers is being backed by pretty much every single Republican under the sun, from former President Trump to US Senator Steve Daines (who heads the Republican Senate campaign arm) to most of Michigan’s Republican Congressional delegation. He’s running on a pretty normal Republican campaign, focusing on the economy, securing the border, and lowering crime. Amash, much like he was back in the House, is running as a true libertarian. He says he will do what’s best for Michigan and stand up to the Republican Party if need be. He is enjoying the backing of the Republican Liberty Caucus and the Detroit Free Press. Finally, O’Donnell is running as a far-right culture warrior, promising to fight critical race theory and the World Health Organization.
Rogers is dominating Amash and O’Donnell in fundraising, out-raising and out-spending both of them by nearly ten times! This has translated to a large polling lead for Rogers, who leads Amash by around 30-40 points depending on which poll you look at (and O’Donnell doesn’t even register). Rogers is the favorite here, but Amash might do well around his old Congressional district in the Grand Rapids area.
MI-01 (Northern Michigan):
Republican incumbent Jack Bergman is running for a fifth term in this solidly Republican seat, but first he has to fend off US Army veteran Josh Saul in the primary. Saul is running hard to Bergman’s right (and Bergman isn’t exactly a moderate), saying all the traditional culture war stuff about transgender people and diversity. Sadly for Saul (and happily for decency), he hasn’t really raised any money and Bergman hasn’t really done anything that would anger Republican voters in the district. Bergman is the heavy favorite.
MI-04 (Western Michigan):
Republican incumbent Bill Huizenga is facing Ottawa County Republican Party Chairman Brendan Muir in this left-trending (albeit still Republican-leaning) district.
Muir is running to Huizenga’s right and is probably running as more of a Thomas Massie Republican than anything else. He’s running on the usual culture war issues (election integrity, getting rid of critical race theory, securing the border), but he’s also added in a few things about returning to the gold standard and getting rid of the Federal Reserve. Interesting for sure, but he’s only raised around $20,000 and doesn’t really have any endorsements outside of the Ottawa County Republican Party (which of course he does, he’s the damn Chairman!). Huizenga should win this pretty easily.
MI-08 (Flint/Tri-Cities):
The Republicans are hoping to flip this right-trending (albeit still Democratic-leaning) district with Democratic incumbent Dan Kildee retiring. As such, three candidates have thrown their names out there to become the nominee: former news anchor/2022 nominee Paul Junge, businesswoman Mary Draves, and truck driver Anthony Hudson.
Junge and Draves have pretty similar platforms, focusing on the economy, securing the border, and supporting parental rights in education. Hudson is running to the right of both of them, running on removing red flag laws for gun owners and stopping electric vehicle production. Junge has the fundraising lead and the backing of former President Trump, but Draves has been able to raise enough money to keep herself in it. Hudson, on the other hand, has raised only a few thousand dollars and only has the endorsement of one-term Congressman Kerry Bentivolio (who is the definition of an accidental Congressman). Hudson does have one thing going for him though, winner of the dumbest campaign ad of the year. Why? He put an ad on his TikTok using a deepfaked, AI voice of Martin Luther King Jr. No I am not making this up (https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/michigan-gop-congressional-candidate-posts-deepfake-mlk-jr-endorsing-him)
Junge should be the favorite here. He led the one poll taken of this race, taking 53% of the vote compared to Draves’s 11% and Hudson’s 1%. The Trump endorsement and the fundraising advantage is just the icing on the cake. He’ll be in for a super competitive November election against whoever emerges from the three-way Democratic primary.
HD-13 (Roseville/eastern Warren):
The Republicans lost this district in 2022 by 35 points, but were massively helped out when the courts struck down the Detroit area portion of the State House map as a racial gerrymander. The map was redrawn and turned this district from one that backed Biden by 28 in 2020 to one that only would have backed him by two points.
Four Republicans are stepping up to try to flip this now-winnable district: engineer Ronald Singer, conservative activist Mark Foster, conservative activist John Sheets, and conservative activist Jerrie Bowl Biello. Singer is backed by multiple sitting legislators and is running on a traditional conservative campaign of lowering taxes and increasing jobs. Foster’s also running on a pretty normal Republican campaign of being tough-on-crime and supporting businesses. Sheets and Biello don’t really have any platforms, but judging by their Facebook pages, it seems like they’re both hard right-wingers. None of these four have reported raising any money either. If I had to pick, I’d say Singer wins this because of his endorsements and residual name recognition from his run for this district in a special election earlier this year (that was held under the old lines).
HD-22 (Plymouth/Northville/western Livonia):
Two Republicans are running to flip this competitive district from Democratic incumbent Matt Koleszar: businessman Adam Stathakis and college student Christian Charette.
Stathakis is running a pretty normal Republican campaign (cutting spending, supporting law enforcement, and, surprisingly, wanting to put an end to “corporate welfare”), while Charette is running on a pretty unique platform of pro-right to work, pro-paid family leave, and anti-DEI initiatives. This is what happens when you have younger candidates running, you get some pretty unique platforms. Anyway, Stathakis is the favorite. He has several major endorsements (most notably the Michigan Manufacturers Association and the Michigan Retailers Association) and has a wide fundraising lead over Charette (who is promising not to take any PAC money).
HD-27 (Wyandotte to Grosse Ile):
After Democratic incumbent Jaime Churches surprisingly flipped this Republican-leaning/white working class district in 2022, the Michigan Republicans have made this district a top priority to flip in their quest to win back the State House. As such, three Republicans are running here: conservative activist Rylee Linting, former Gibraltar City Councilman Cody Dill, and planning commissioner Maria Mendoza-Boc.
All three are solidly on the right flank of the party, with Linting running on a platform of lower taxes and “more freedom,” Dill running on supporting the 2nd Amendment and parental rights in education, and Mendoza-Boc running on opposing “open borders” and supporting the next generation of kids.
Linting has a slight fundraising lead over Dill, though Dill has several endorsements from conservative activist groups. Meanwhile, Mendoza-Boc is trailing well behind both of them in the fundraising department, but has an endorsement from the Wayne County Farm Bureau (which I didn’t even know existed considering Wayne County is nearly all urban/suburban). It’s really a pure toss-up between Linting and Dill, but if I had to guess, I’d say Dill pulls it out. I say this because it seems like Dill has more grassroots support, which could be big in such a close primary. Wouldn’t be shocked at all to see Linting win though.
HD-28 (Taylor to eastern Monroe County):
Republican incumbent Jamie Thompson is running for reelection in this Republican-leaning district, but she first has to get through a primary challenge from conservative activist Beth Ann Socia. While Thompson is running on her record and lowering taxes, Socia is running hard to her right. Socia has called Thompson the “establishment” and has a Facebook page full of the most right-wing culture war stuff. From election integrity to deporting illegal immigrants, it’s all there. The good news for Thompson is that Socia hasn’t raised any money, so Thompson should be fine.
HD-35 (Hillsdale/Branch Counties):
With Republican incumbent Andrew Fink deciding to run for the State Supreme Court instead of running for reelection, three Republicans have stepped up to replace him in this deeply Republican district: Branch County Commissioner Tom Matthew, former school board member Jennifer Wortz, and Hillsdale Mayor Adam Stockford.
Matthew is running a pretty standard Republican campaign (fighting to lower taxes and “protecting our freedoms”), while Wortz is running as a sort of Christian Nationalist (promising to promote Christian values and uphold the sanctity of marriage, which is like straight out of 2006), and Stockford is calling himself a “fighter” and is running on a bunch of conservative policies that boils down to putting more control of the government back into the hands of the people. Matthew is backed by several County Commissioners in southern Michigan and the Right to Life of Michigan, while Wortz is backed by several Republican legislative leaders, and Stockford is backed by the President of Hillsdale College Larry Arnn.
It’s a really close race between these three, but if I had to guess, I’d say Wortz narrowly pulls it out. Her more Christian Nationalist platform aligns more with the district and her endorsements probably push her over the edge, despite Matthew’s fundraising advantage. I could definitely see Matthew pulling this out, but I would be really surprised if Stockford won (he’s facing some problems back in Hillsdale, facing potential recalls multiple times).
HD-36 (St. Joseph/Cass Counties):
Republican incumbent Steve Carra is one of the most far-right State Representatives in Michigan. I say one of because we’ll talk about the most-far right State Rep later. Foreshadowing aside, Carra’s facing two opponents in this deeply Republican district: Sturgis Mayor Frank Perez and businessman Michael Malmborg.
Perez is running as, much like Carra, a culture warrior. His website only has three policies: protecting the 2nd Amendment, protecting freedom of speech, and promoting pro-life policies. Malmborg, on the other hand, is running as a moderate, wanting to increase public school funding and investing in infrastructure. The problem for Perez & Malmborg is simple, Carra is beating them in the fundraising department and neither of them really have any endorsements. As such, Carra should be the favorite here.
HD-39 (Van Buren County area):
Republican incumbent Pauline Wendzel is facing a primary challenge in this deeply Republican district from US Marine Corps veteran Richard Overton. Overton has no online campaign presence to speak of and has only raised $1,500 in campaign money. Wendzel is the heavy favorite.
HD-42 (Eastern Kalamazoo County):
Republican incumbent/Minority Leader Matt Hall is facing a challenge from conservative activist Rich Cutshaw in this Republican-leaning district. Cutshaw is running hard to Hall’s right, attacking Hall for trying to work with the Democratic majority and voting for a gun control law that required safe storage of firearms. He’s also promising to protect “voter integrity” and “our children.” The problem for Cutshaw is that, despite some grassroots endorsements, he hasn’t raised a ton of money. Combine that with Hall raising over $130,000 makes me think that Hall wins comfortably. This district is just not that Republican where a far-right primary challenge of a State Legislative leader can work (backing Trump by 7 in 2020).
HD-44 (Battle Creek area):
Democratic incumbent Jim Haadsma is one of the last Michigan Democrats left to represent a Trump-won district (this one having backed Trump by 1 in 2020), so the Republicans are eager to beat him. As such, three Republicans are running for that honor: Calhoun County Commissioner Steve Frisbie, conservative activist Alexander Harris, and conservative activist Just Shotts.
Frisbie’s running as a pretty generic Republican, prioritizing “pragmatic solutions,” parents rights in education, and protecting taxpayer money. Harris is running on a platform of local control, lowering taxes, and helping small businesses and Shotts is, uh, weird. His Facebook page is pretty much a tea party/libertarian fever dream mixed with right wing culture war topics. The funniest part about it is that he has a video that starts with his mouth taped shut and then him symbolically removing it in order to promote freedom of speech.
If this was a contest for lead in the high school play, then Shotts wins this easily. That’s not how it works though and, as such, Frisbie is the favorite here. He’s got the wide fundraising lead and name recognition that should carry him to a win.
HD-50 (Northern/western Livingston County):
Republican incumbent Bob Bezotte is running for reelection in this deeply Republican district, but he’s probably DOA for one major reason. Last year, Bezotte and his wife divorced. During the divorce proceedings, Bezotte’s wife claimed that Bezotte was mentally, emotionally, and physically abusive towards her.
Bezotte has denied the accusations, but these very serious and troubling accusations have caused three Republicans to step into this race and face him: political aide Dominic Restuccia, US Marine Corps veteran Jason Woolford, and attorney Kristina Lyke. Restuccia is running on a platform of “restoring American values” by promoting school choice and cutting taxes. Woolford is running as a culture warrior, promising to protect the 2nd Amendment, ban “mutilation” of children (it’s a transgender panic thing), and claiming that “the left” is trying to take away “the uniqueness of women.” I can’t find much about Lyke, but if her 2020 Congressional run is anything to go by, she’s a pretty standard Trump-supporting Republican.
Restuccia leads the pack in fundraising and endorsements, having the backing of probable US Senate nominee/former MI-08 Congressman Mike Bishop, US Senator for Utah Mike Lee, and failed 2024 Presidential candidate Vivek Rammaswamy. Woolford is close behind in fundraising, but only has endorsements from some local officials and some conservative grassroots movements. Finally, Bezotte only has the endorsement of Right to Life for Michigan, but prominently has a picture of himself with Trump and JD Vance on his front page, so he’s trying to be clever.
Bezotte is probably going to lose here, let’s get that out of the way first. The abuse allegations are damning and him flip-flopping on retiring after the allegations came out aren’t helping his campaign at all. Neither was him not being on the ballot for the longest time until he sued to get back on the ballot at the end of May. So ultimately this will come down to Restuccia and Woolford. It’s really a pure toss-up between those two, but if I had to guess, I’d go with Restuccia. The fundraising and endorsement advantages should ultimately prove to have the deciding edge here, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Woolford won.
HD-51 (Western Oakland County):
Republican incumbent Matt Maddock is an interesting guy to say the least. Since being elected to the State House in 2018, he’s proven to be one of the most far-right State Representatives in Michigan. He led protests against COVID-19 restrictions & the counting of ballots in the 2020 election and once claimed that buses full of “illegal invaders” were arriving in Detroit and wondered about their destination. Those buses were college basketball players who were in town to play in the 2024 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.
Anyway, Maddock is facing a challenge from Milford Village Councilman Kevin Ziegler in this solidly Republican district. Ziegler is running as a traditional conservative, touting conservative economic policies and attacking the State Rep who calls himself “Mad Dog Maddock” for his numerous controversies. Ziegler is backed by the Detroit Free Press and the carpenters union, plus he has a wide fundraising advantage over Maddock. On the other hand, Maddock is only being backed by a few grassroots conservative groups.
Honestly, I think Ziegler wins this. For someone who’s as terminally online as Maddock usually is, his online campaign presence is really weak (not even having a website). Combine that with the lack of fundraising and the lack of endorsements makes me think that Ziegler can primary him. It’d make sense for this kind of district too: suburban, not extremely Republican (though still Trump+19), it fits the type of district where the Republican primary voters might not be as far right as Maddock is. I’m still holding out the possibility they are though, so I’m not counting Maddock out. For now though, I think Ziegler pulls this off.
HD-58 (Eastern Sterling Heights area):
Democratic incumbent Nate Shannon is definitely the most vulnerable House Democrat this year, mostly because he’s representing a district that backed Trump by six points in 2020. As such, two Republicans are running to face Shannon: Utica City Councilman Ron Robinson and engineer Roger Goodrich. Robinson is backed by a bevy of State Legislators and local officials and has a wide fundraising lead, while Goodrich has no real online campaign presence and hasn’t reported raising any money. Robinson is the heavy favorite to face Shannon in November.
HD-59 (Shelby Township):
Republican incumbent Doug Wozniak is facing a challenge from accountant Jean Zott in this deeply Republican district. This has been a pretty mundane primary, with Zott focusing on her background as an accountant and Wozniak mostly highlighting his economic accomplishments in the legislature. I guess the only notable thing about this race is that Zott has technically beaten Wozniak in the fundraising department, but Wozniak’s being backed by most Macomb County Republicans. Wozniak’s the favorite here.
HD-61 (Clinton Township/Mount Clemens):
With Democratic incumbent Denise Mentzer being one of a few Michigan Democrats representing a Trump-won seat (Trump+0.4 in 2020), the Republicans are eager to flip this district. As such, three of them are running to win the nomination to face Mentzer in November: political aide Russ Cleary, former school board member Robert Wojtowicz, and conservative activist John Grossenbacher.
Cleary’s running on a standard conservative platform (supporting “parental rights” in education, lowering taxes, increasing jobs) and has a wide fundraising lead over his two opponents. Wojtowicz is pretty much a ghost online, while Grossbacher is running on a generic conservative platform (lowering taxes, supporting school choice, and supporting law enforcement). Cleary should be the favorite here, mostly because of the fundraising lead and connections to several influential Macomb County politicians (having been the Political Director of now-Congressman John James in the 2022 election cycle).
HD-63 (Southern St. Clair County):
Republican incumbent Jay DeBoyer is running for reelection in this deeply Republican district, but first he has to get through former Cottrellville Township Trustee Michael Zoran in the primary. Zoran has no campaign presence online and has raised no money, so DeBoyer is the heavy favorite.
HD-64 (Northern St. Clair County):
With Republican incumbent Andrew Beeler retiring, everyone and their mother has thrown their hat into the ring to replace him in this deeply Republican district. Ok, I might be being facetious, but five different Republicans are running here: teacher Joe Pavlov, former State Representative Gary Eisen, real estate agent Ryan Maxon, St. Clair County Commissioner Jorja Baldwin, and home inspector Dan Geiersbach.
Pavlov is running as a culture warrior, promising to fight “the left’s marxist/communist agenda,” by promoting the American dream and the sanctity of life. He’s also got the wide fundraising lead and an endorsement from Right to Life of Michigan. Eisen doesn’t really have that much of a campaign presence, but if his previous term in the House is anything to go by, he’d be a solidly right-wing Representative (being a prominent force behind the effort to overturn the Michigan election results in 2020). Maxon’s running as a bog-standard Republican (focusing on lowering taxes and protecting “God-given rights.” Baldwin is also running as a generic Republican (focusing on enhancing public safety and protecting the rights of local governments). Finally, Geiersbach doesn’t have any campaign presence anywhere online and hasn’t raised any money.
And breathe. Picking a winner here is going to be tricky. On the surface, Pavlov seems like the favorite thanks to his wide fundraising lead (he’s the only candidate to raise more than $2,000, having raised $27,000). On the other hand, Eisen and Baldwin have name recognition from their previous term in office and current job respectively. I have to make a guess, so I’ll go with Pavlov. Could definitely see Eisen or Baldwin winning though.
HD-66 (Northern Oakland County):
Remember when I said back in the HD-36 preview that we would be talking about the most far-right Michigan State Representative later? Well, later is now, because Republican incumbent Josh Schriver is running for reelection in this deeply Republican district.
Schriver was only just elected in 2022, but has already made a name for himself in Lansing over the last two years. It started back in February when Schriver retweeted a post on Twitter from a far-right media personality that promoted the racist/white nationalist Great Replacement Theory. Schriver defended the retweet, but he was stripped of his committee assignments because of it. Also around the same time, Schriver proposed banning birth control, which only the most hardcore of conservatives will vouch for.
All of this has led to attorney Randy LaVasseur jumping in to face Schriver. LaVasseur is running as a standard Republican, supporting lowering taxes, seniors’ rights, and rebuilding failing infrastructure. He’s bankrolled over $60,000 into his campaign, allowing him to have a fundraising advantage over Schriver. He’s got some decent endorsements too from the Detroit Free Press and the Detroit Chamber of Commerce. Not to be outdone though, Schriver is backed by most of his fellow State House colleagues and several grassroots conservative groups.
I said earlier back in the HD-51 preview that if a far-right incumbent is to be primaried, then they have to be in a certain type of district (mostly suburban/exurban and not too Trumpy). This district is exurban, yes, but it backed Trump by over 30 points. As such, I think the Republican primary voters here are more aligned with Schriver than LaVasseur. However, there’s also the wild card of Schriver not having any staff or being on any committees (thanks to the whole supporting the racist Great Replacement Theory thing). It’s all one big mess, but I think Schriver narrowly pulls out a win because he’s more in tune with the rest of the district than LaVasseur’s more suburban-y platform.
HD-67 (Western Lapeer/eastern Genesee Counties):
Republican incumbent Phil Green is running for reelection in this deeply Republican district, but he’s facing two challengers in the Republican primary: former police officer Sherri Cross and Richfield Township Trustee Sherry Marden. Cross is running to the left of Green (promising to not restrict abortion and saying that DEI & preferred pronouns have their place in education, but also promising to lower taxes and lift regulations). Marden doesn’t have much of a campaign presence. Neither Sherr(i/y) has raised any money or have any prominent endorsers, so Green should be fine here.
HD-71 (Shiawassee County area):
Republican incumbent Brian BeGole is facing a challenge from US Army veteran Kevin Rathbun in this deeply Republican district. This is actually a rematch of 2022, when BeGole defeated Rathbun (who was endorsed by former President Trump) by 10 points. This time around, Rathbun doesn’t have the Trump endorsement and BeGole has endorsements from pretty much every conservative grassroots group and even some mainstream conservative groups. He also has the wide fundraising lead over Rathbun, who has only raised around 1/3rd of what BeGole has raised. BeGole’s the favorite here for sure.
HD-76 (Eaton County):
This Biden+2 district is a top target for the Michigan Republicans as they try to win back control of the House. They’ll have to get through Democratic incumbent Angela Witwer in November, but first they have to pick a nominee tonight. Republican voters will choose between two people: pastor Andy Shaver and businessman Peter Jones. Shaver is running as a standard right-winger (with an increased focus on some culture war issues) and has the backing of pretty much the entire Eaton County Republican apparatus. It won’t really matter, because Jones has raised no money and has no campaign presence anywhere online. Shaver’s the heavy favorite
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HD-78 (Ionia County area):
Republican incumbent Gina Johnsen is running for reelection in this deeply Republican district, but first she’s facing US Marine Corps veteran John Rocha in the primary.
Johnsen is running as a culture warrior, with her first policy on her platform page on her website being an anti-CRT and DEI screed. Combine that with a section on “healthcare freedom” and an attack on absentee ballots, you’ve got a culture warrior incumbent. Anyway, Rocha is also running as a culture warrior, talking about getting rid of CRT, demanding election integrity, and defunding sanctuary cities.
So in this culture warrior vs culture warrior battle, who wins? Johnsen probably. The incumbency boost, combined with endorsements from pretty much every single Republican elected official in this district and a wide fundraising lead gives her the driver’s seat in this one. Rocha has raised a decent amount of money, but is still trying to parrot an endorsement that former President Trump gave him in his failed 2022 run for State House (when he got thrown off the ballot), so that might be a sign of desperation. Advantage Johnsen.
HD-96 (Bay County):
Republican incumbent Timmy Beson is running for a third term in this Republican-leaning district, but he first has to get through US Marine Corps veteran Chaz Fowler in the primary.
Beson is mostly running on his legislative record, which has been pretty normal for a Republican. Fowler is running to his right, promising to “fight censorship,” reduce regulations, and return Michigan to a right-to-work state, which I’m not sure is going to play that well in a formerly-industry dominated city like Bay City. Beson is beating Fowler in the fundraising department and has endorsements from pretty much every single major conservative-leaning group. Not to count out Fowler though, because he’s backed by the Bay County Republican Party. Despite that, I think Beson should be the favorite to win here. He’s proven to be a pretty strong incumbent and Fowler really hasn’t shown why he should be primaried.
HD-101 (Newaygo/Wexford/Lake Counties):
Republican incumbent Joseph Fox is gunning for a second term, but he first has to face triathlete Brandon McDonald in the primary for this deeply Republican district. Fox is running as a Christian culture warrior conservative, prominently touting his opposition to secularism and atheism on his campaign website and promoting the “Biblical view” of marriage. McDonald is interesting, he’s running as a real moderate, being pro-choice and wanting to lower property taxes. Fox is the heavy favorite here though, with McDonald raising no money and Fox having endorsements from pretty much every major conservative group.
HD-103 (Leelanau County/Traverse City):
This is the type of district that used to love the GOP before they became all Trumpy, which eventually led to Democrat Betsy Coffia flipping this district in 2022. Now, three Republicans are running to try to flip this competitive district back: businesswoman Lisa Trombley, former Grand Traverse County Republican Party Chairwoman Katie Kniss, and community organizer Tripp Garcia.
Trombley is running as a pretty standard right-wing Republican (running on lowering taxes, protecting the 2nd Amendment, and “securing elections), while Kniss is running as a culture warrior (promising to fight CRT and DEI in schools, promote election integrity, and fight against COVID mandates in the year 2024 when there are none left), and Garcia is running as probably the moderate candidate here (wanting to expand Medicaid and build affordable housing).
Trombley is being backed by the establishment, with several DeVos family members backing her (including former US Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos), which has given her a wide fundraising lead over Kniss and Garcia. Speaking of Kniss, she’s being backed by a few current and former Michigan Freedom Caucus State Legislators, though is lagging behind in fundraising. Garcia hasn’t raised anything and has no prominent endorsers.
I think Trombley pulls this off, but Kniss should not be counted out. Also, fun fact, while Kniss was Chair of the Grand Traverse County GOP, guess who directly preceded her in that job? Lisa Trombley! So no matter who wins here, we’ll see a former Chairwoman of the Grand Traverse County GOP face off against Betsy Coffia in November (unless Garcia pulls off the massive upset).
HD-104 (Northwestern Michigan):
Republican incumbent John Roth is running for reelection in this deeply Republican district, but first has to get through college student Owen Suhy in the primary. Suhy is running on a platform promoting balancing the budget and the use of voter IDs, but hasn’t raised any money and has no major endorsements. Roth is the heavy favorite.
HD-105 (Northern Michigan):
Republican incumbent Ken Borton faces a challenge from former Antrim County Commissioner Christian Marcus in this deeply Republican district.
Borton is running on both his record and as a pretty boilerplate Republican (promising to reduce taxes and protect “our way of life” in northern Michigan), while Marcus is calling himself an “America-First Conservative” and promises to fight voter fraud and “gender confusing policies.” Borton is leading Marcus in the fundraising department and has the backing of most major conservative groups. However, Marcus does have the backing of the Otsego County Republican Party, the biggest county party in the district. Borton should be fine here, but Marcus might take a decent chunk of the vote and his more culture war-esque policies might resonate in this Trump+37 district.
HD-106 (Northeastern Michigan):
Republican incumbent Cam Cavitt is running for re-election in this deeply Republican district, but he first has to face US Army Veteran Todd Smalenberg in the primary.
Cavitt is running as a culture warrior, promising to promote election integrity, be pro-life, and protect the 2nd Amendment. Smalenberg is also on the right-wing, but he’s a little bit to the left of Cavitt, focusing on much of the same culture war issues but promises not to go after abortion (saying that Michigan voters already made their call in 2022). Cavitt and Smalenberg are pretty much neck and neck in fundraising as well, though Cavitt has a small lead. Smalenberg is backed by a lot of former Army officials and a few 2022 candidates who lost to Cavitt in the primary. Meanwhile, Cavitt is backed by the Michigan Farm Bureau and Ted Nugent (both equally important in a Republican primary in a deeply Republican district).
I’m going to call Cavitt the prohibitive favorite, but Smalenberg definitely can win this. His fundraising has been pretty impressive for a first time candidate and his backstory is pretty inspiring. Right now though, I think the incumbency of the culture warrior Cavitt is enough to push him over the finish line.
HD-107 (Mackinac/Charlevoix/Emmet Counties):
Republican incumbent Neil Friske is running for reelection in this solidly Republican district, but maybe he shouldn’t have after what transpired on the morning of June 20th, 2024. That early morning, Friske was arrested for chasing an adult dancer with a gun. Friske hasn’t technically been charged with anything yet and he’s maintained his innocence, but it’s been a pretty big black eye on the district over the last month or so.
This hasn’t helped Friske in his primary challenge against businessman Parker Fairbairn. Fairbairn, who lost to Friske in the 2022 primary by seven points, is running as a pretty standard rural Republican (pro-2nd Amendment, pro-protecting natural resources, pro-”America First” policies) but has specifically explained his candidacy by saying that he’s running because he feels the district needs a Representative who can avoid drama. If chasing a stripper with a gun isn’t drama, I don’t know what is! Friske, on the other hand, is a member of the far-right Freedom Caucus and promises to fight for election integrity and fight against critical race theory.
Fairbairn has a wide fundraising lead over Friske (mostly thanks to Fairbairn heavily self-funding, though he has raised as much as Friske if you don’t count self-funding) and has several impressive endorsements from groups like the Michigan Farm Bureau and people like MI-01 Congressman Jack Bergman. Friske still has some backers, most notably the anti-abortion Right to Life of Michigan group. I think Fairbairn pulls this one off, mostly because voters don’t even want to be associated with the thought of someone who chased hookers around with guns as their State Representative, especially in a more nominally-Republican district like this one (Trump+15 and trending to the left).
HD-109 (Central Upper Peninsula):
The Republicans are hoping to flip the last bastion of Democratic support in the Upper Peninsula, but first they have to nominate a candidate. Three candidates are running in this competitive district: retired news meteorologist Karl Bohnak, businessman Burt Mason, and former police officer/2022 nominee Melody Wagner.
Bohnak is running as a pretty standard Republican (pro-school choice, pro-2nd Amendment, pro-law enforcement), while Mason is running on a similar platform (pro-2nd Amendment, pro-protecting natural resources, and pro-lowering taxes), and Wagner is running on a platform that’s more focused on things like lowering car insurance rates and improving mold removal standards. It’s honestly one of the most unique campaigns I’ve seen this year just because it’s not all about stuff like “the border!” and “the economy!” and “throwing out perfectly valid votes in 2020 because they voted against Trump!”
My ranting aside, Bohnak leads the pack in fundraising and has endorsements from several sitting State Legislators and former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land. Mason is close behind in fundraising, almost entirely based on self-funding. Finally, Wagner is endorsed by the Right to Life of Michigan PAC, but trails behind in fundraising. If I had to guess, I’d say Bohnak is the favorite (because never count out a meteorologist or a news anchor in a state legislative race), but Mason has been airing TV ads (low quality, but still they’re there), and Wagner might have name recognition from her close 2022 loss. Right now though, I’d say advantage to Bohnak.
And that’s all for this edition of Grand Old Primary! I’ll be back in a bit to cover all the major Republican primaries in Missouri, so until then, you can follow me on Twitter at @Uncrewed and don’t forget to stay excellent!