Grand Old Primary- August 6th, 2024 (Washington Edition)
Covering all the major Republican contests in Washington!
GRAND OLD PRIMARY- AUGUST 6th, 2024 (Washington Edition)
INTRO:
Hello everyone and welcome to another exciting edition of Grand Old Primary! If you’re new here, Grand Old Primary is a series where I cover all the most important Republican primaries going on throughout the country. From Congress to the State Legislature to even a few county races, they’re all here folks. We’ve got four states holding primaries today and we already covered Kansas, Michigan, and Missouri, so we’re on to the final state, Washington! Let’s get to it!
DISCLAIMER:
Before we get into the primaries, I feel like it’s important to note that Washington has different primaries than every other state we’ve covered so far. Washington’s primary system has every candidate run in a single primary and the top-two advance to November regardless of party. This could lead to two Democrats advancing or two Republicans advancing, so keep that in mind when I make my predictions.
WA-03 (Southern Washington):
The Republicans surprisingly lost this Trump+4 seat in 2022 to Democrat Marie Glusenkamp Perez. MGP defeated far-right Republican Joe Kent, who defeated the incumbent Republican Jamie Herrera Beutler in the primary. Kent had a long history of saying weird stuff, from saying that the 2020 Presidential election was stolen from President Trump to calling abortion a “stain on society,” and saying that watching sporting events was a way that men were losing masculinity.
That weird dude is running again, but this time he has some company in the primary. That’s because Camas City Councilwoman Leslie Lewallen is also running as a Republican. Lewallen is running as a more normal Republican, focusing on lowering the effects of inflation, lowering crime, and trying to end homelessness. She’s backed by some of the more moderate Washington Republicans (including a few of the last statewide elected Republicans), but her fundraising has lagged behind Kent. Speaking of Kent, he’s got the big hitters in his corner. From former President Trump to the Washington State GOP to the House Freedom Caucus, he’s definitely got the establishment support locked down.
If Lewallen makes it to November alongside MGP, then the Republicans are definitely favored to flip this district. However, I think Kent grabs the second runoff spot behind MGP here. His name recognition from last time combined with the fundraising and endorsement advantages will be more than enough to get him the second spot and a rematch with MGP in November. Whether that goes as badly for him as it did in 2022 remains to be seen.
WA-04 (Central Washington):
Republican incumbent Dan Newhouse is a part of a dying breed of Republicans in the House, Republicans who voted to impeach President Trump. Right now, it’s just him and CA-22 Congressman David Valadao. While Valadao is in the fight of his political life against a Democrat, Newhouse has some problems of his own in this solidly Republican district.
Two Republicans are running alongside Newhouse: nurse/2022 US Senate nominee Tiffany Smiley and businessman/former NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler. Newhouse leads both of them in fundraising and has the backing of a few State Legislators & AIPAC. Smiley (who’s running as a pretty standard Republican) has raised a decent amount of money (around $700,000) and has the backing of former President Trump. Sessler (who’s running as a culture warrior) has lagged in fundraising (only raising $400,000 and most of that was self-funded), but is also backed by former President Trump and the Washington Republican Party.
Yes, Trump endorsed two people in his quest to take out a Congressman who impeached him. You would think that’d be counterproductive and it kind of is, but I’m sensing Trump thinks that Sessler’s momentum is fading and wants to jump on the winning horse in Tiffany Smiley. Polling backs that up, as the one poll taken of the race (a Smiley internal) shows Smiley in first with 30%, Newhouse in second with 21%, Sessler in third with 11%, and the remaining Democrats behind them. Thanks to the fundraising advantage and residual name recognition from 2022, I think Newhouse and Smiley will take the top two spots in the primary and advance to November. As for who wins that, it’s more complicated. Side note, I’m also not discounting the fact that one of the four Democrats running (including one “MAGA Democrat”) could sneak in here, but none of them have really differentiated themselves (in endorsements and fundraising), so I think the top two both being Republicans is more likely than not here.
WA-05 (Eastern Washington):
Republican incumbent Cathy McMorris Rodgers decided not to run for re-election in this solidly Republican district, so everyone and their mother decided to run to replace her. Just on the Republican side, there are six people running: Spokane County Treasurer Michael Baumgartner, State Representative Jacquelin Maycumber, Ferry County Commissioner Brian Dansel, Spokane City Councilman Jonathan Bingle, talk radio host Rene Holaday, and farmer Rick Flynn. And that’s not even to mention the five Democrats running!
Let’s start with Baumgartner, who’s been a major name in Spokane politics for nearly 14 years at this point (when he was first elected to the State Senate, flipping a Democratic-held seat). He was the Republican nominee for the 2012 US Senate race and lost by 20. He continued to serve in the Senate until 2018, when he retired and became Spokane County Treasurer. He’s running on his record from the State Senate fighting “Seattle Radicals” and promising to secure the border and reduce homelessness. He’s raised the most amount of money in the race (over $700,000) and backed by several sitting State Legislators & the last two Republican Mayors of Spokane.
Maycumber is running on her conservative record in the State Legislature, promising to be a “voice” to rural Washington, and promising to secure the border. Her fundraising has lagged behind Baumgartner (only raising $300,000), but is endorsed by several Spokane County officials, a lot of her current legislative colleagues, and the Washington Farm Bureau. Dansel is vowing to fight for “freedom and prosperity,” but has only raised around $100,000, though he is being backed by the Washington State Republican Party. Bingle, Holaday, and Flynn have been in the doldrums on fundraising and endorsements, so they all won’t win.
I think Baumgartner is going to grab one of the two spots in the top-two alongside a Democrat (either Camela Conroy or Bernadine Brink). The only way Maycumber can get in is if she gets enough non-Spokane support to overwhelm Baumgartner or the Democratic vote is split so badly it allows her to snag a top-two spot.
SD-02 (Southern Pierce/eastern Thurston Counties):
Republican incumbent James McCune is running for re-election, but he’s facing both a Democrat (teacher Erasmo Ruiz) and Republican (school board member Ronda Litzenberger) in the primary.
McCune is running as a right-wing culture warrior, describing himself as “Pro-Make America Great", " Pro-Religious Freedom”, and “Pro-Teaching True American History.” Litzenberger, on the other hand, is running as a more moderate Republican, focusing on reducing violent crime, cutting regulations, and supporting tax relief. She’s got the slight fundraising lead over McCune and is being backed by Senate Republican Leader John Braun, Senate Republican Campaign Leader Chris Gildon, and State Representative JT Wilcox (who represents this district in the House).
McCune is pissed about the Senate Republican leadership backing Litzenberger, saying that he’s being targeted for his conservative beliefs. Given that Ruiz will probably take one of the two spots here (the Democrats usually get around 30% of the vote in primaries here), it’s pretty much a pure toss-up to see who gets that second spot between McCune and Litzenberger. Going out on a limb here, I’ll say McCune gets it in an embarrassment to the Washington Republican Senate Leadership. It’s the power of incumbency and the fact that the Pierce County GOP is backing McCune that ultimately pushes him over the edge for me. I can very much see Litzenberger taking that spot though and there’s even an outcome where Democratic turnout is low enough for both McCune and Litzenberger to get both spots! I don’t think that’ll happen though.
SD-04 (Eastern Spokane County):
Republican incumbent Mike Padden is retiring from this solidly Republican district, so four Republicans are running to replace him: businessman Mike Kelly, State Representative Leonard Christian, Spokane Valley Mayor Pam Haley, and Spokane Valley City Councilman Al Merkel.
Kelly is running as a right-winger, promising to introduce a “parents bill of rights,” fight back against “government mandates,” and pass tax reform. Christian’s also a right-winger, also promising a “parents bill of rights,” while fighting to lower taxes and increase affordability. Haley’s running as a more standard Republican, vowing to lower taxes, reduce regulations, and support law enforcement. Finally, Merkel is running on a very similar platform to Haley, but he’s attacked her for too much “wasteful spending.”
Kelly has the fundraising lead and is backed by retiring Senator Padden, WA-05 candidate Michael Baumgartner, & the Spokane County Republican Party. Christian has raised a decent amount of money (though only half of what Kelly has raised) and is backed by a few of his State House colleagues & some Spokane County elected officials. Finally, Haley’s fundraising has lagged behind Kelly & Merkel, but she’s backed by the Washington Farm Bureau and a few Spokane County elected officials.
I think Kelly has a spot in the top-two locked down, but it remains to be seen if the Democrats can snag the other spot or Christian snags it. Given the fact that Democrats usually get 30-35% of the primary vote and seem to be united behind one candidate (Miguel Valencia), I think the Democrats get that second spot alongside Mike Kelly. If the Democratic vote is more split or Democratic turnout is weak, I can see Christian getting that second spot however.
SD-18 (Northern Vancouver suburbs):
This district (which only backed Trump by 23 votes in 2020) is a Democratic target this year, especially after Republican incumbent Ann Rivers announced her retirement back in April. Two Republicans are running to probably face Democratic candidate/Battle Ground City Councilman Adrian Cortes in November: State Representative Greg Cheney and businessman Brad Benton.
Benton is running as a standard right-winger, promising not to raise taxes, protect the 2nd Amendment, and fight against light rail. Cheney’s running as a moderate, focusing on fighting inflation, job creation, and supporting law enforcement. Cheney also has a decent fundraising lead over Benton alongside endorsements from several sitting State Legislators (including retiring Senator Rivers). Cheney should take one of the top-two spots alongside Cortes here, setting up for a big November election.
HD-02 (2nd Position) (Southern Pierce/eastern Thurston Counties):
Republican incumbent JT Wilcox is retiring from this solidly Republican district, so two Republicans (alongside two Democrats) are running to replace him: former Thurston County Sheriff John Snaza and former school board member Matt Marshall.
Both of these men are not without their controversies. Snaza lost re-election as Thurston County Sheriff in 2022 after a 2018 car crash caused by him potentially driving drunk reemerged into the public eye. Marshall, on the other hand, was the leader of the far-right Washington Three Percenters group and frequently compared COVID-19 mandates to the Holocaust back in 2020. Back to politics, Snaza is running on a standard Republican platform, promising to support public safety, lower taxes, and tackle the drug crisis. Marshall is running as a culture warrior, supporting a “parents bill of rights,” promising to “protect women’s spaces,” and embrace “economic freedom.”
Snazza has the fundraising advantage over Marshall and has the backing of both sitting State Representatives for this district & nearly every single Republican Sheriff in the state of Washington. Because of that, Snaza definitely has one of the two top-two spots locked up, but the second spot will probably go to one of the Democrats (probably Yanah Cook). The only way Marshall gets a spot is if Democratic turnout collapses or Snaza manages to collapse.
HD-04 (2nd Position) (Eastern Spokane County):
With Republican incumbent Leonard Christian running for State Senate, four Republicans (and two Democrats) are running to replace him in this solidly Republican district: rancher Michael Schmidt, former Spokane Valley City Councilwoman Brandi Peetz, former State Representative Rob Chase, and businessman Stephen Major.
Schmidt is running as a right-winger, promising to protect property and parents’ rights, personal liberties, and prosperity through hard work. Peetz is running as a more standard Republican, focusing on public safety, economic growth, and tax relief. Chase is running on his record in the State House and as Spokane County Treasurer, calling himself a “Taxpayer advocate.” Finally, Major is running as a generic right-winger, promising to protect the 2nd Amendment and increase public safety.
Schmidt has the fundraising lead and is backed by the Washington Farm Bureau. Peetz is backed by Representative Christian and several Spokane County officials, while Chase is backed by the Spokane County Republican Party and State Senator Mike Padden. With neither Democrat running raising that much money and the presence of multiple well-funded Republicans, there stands a good chance two Republicans make it into the top-two here. If that happens, then it’ll probably be Schmidt and either Peetz or Chase. If a Democrat manages to sneak in, it would probably be Ted Cummings. For what I think will happen, I think Schmidt and Cummings manage to make it through to the top-two.
HD-07 (1st Position) (Northeastern Washington):
With Republican incumbent Jacquelin Maycumber running for Congress, three Republicans are running to replace her in this deeply Republican district: former Twisp Mayor Soo Ing-Moody, political aide Andrew Engell, and Tonasket City Councilwoman Teagan Lavine.
Moody is running on her local experience as Mayor of Twisp. Engell is running as a right-winger, promising to support law enforcement, protect the 2nd Amendment, and support “parents’ rights” in education. Lavine is running a pretty generic campaign, running on three planks: reinforcing public safety, building strong families, and “preserving our rural way of life.”
Moody has the fundraising lead and is backed by a lot of local officials in the district and a couple of Firefighter unions. Engell is backed by several local officials and WA-05 Congresswoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers (his former boss). With no Democrat running, this one is guaranteed to feature an all-Republican top-two. Those two will probably be Moody and Engell, as Levine is running behind in fundraising and local support.
HD-07 (2nd Position) (Northeastern Washington):
Republican incumbent Joel Kretz is retiring, so three Republicans (and one Democrat) are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: political aide Pat Bell, judge Hunter Abell, and US Navy Veteran Ronald McCoy.
Bell is running as a right-winger, supporting a “parents bill of rights,” uphold Constitutional rights, and ensure public safety. Abell is running as a standard rural Republican, supporting law enforcement, the 2nd Amendment, and the “Rural 7th District Way of Life.” There’s not that much out there about McCoy, but from what I can find, he supports land rights, gun rights, and lowering taxes.
Bell has the fundraising lead and is backed by WA-05 Congresswoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers (his former boss) and several local elected officials. Abell is backed by retiring Representative Kretz and a slew of local elected officials. The top-two probably comes down to Abell and Bell, but I can see the Democratic candidate (Paul “Rocky” Dean) sneaking in and snatching a spot. For now though, I think Abell and Bell take the two spots.
HD-14 (1st Position) (Yakima to Pasco):
The Democrats are really optimistic they can flip this district in November, mostly thanks to court-mandated redistricting turning this district from one that backed President Trump by six points in 2020 to one that would have backed Biden by 16 in 2020. It’s so bad for the Republicans that incumbent Chris Corry decided to cut bait and run for the neighboring (and more Republican) HD-15. Two Republicans (and one Democrat) are running to replace him: former Grandview Mayor Gloria Mendoza and Army National Guard veteran Andy Kallinen.
Mendoza’s running as a standard Republican, promising to lower taxes, cut spending, and support law enforcement. Kallinen is running to her right, opposing solar/wind energy, supporting public safety, and decreasing homelessness. Mendoza has a wide fundraising lead and should be favored to take one of the top-two spots (alongside Democrat Chelsea Dimas).
HD-17 (2nd Position) (Eastern Vancouver/Skamania County):
With Republican incumbent Paul Harris running for State Senate, two Republicans (and one Democrat) are running to replace him in this Democratic-leaning district: Washougal Mayor David Stuebe and conservative activist Hannah Joy.
Stuebe is running as a moderate, promoting public safety and building affordable housing. Joy is running to his right, wanting to repeal Washington’s cap-and-trade program, decrease homelessness, and strengthen “parental rights” in schools. Stuebe has the fundraising lead, so he’ll probably grab one of the two top-two spots (alongside Democrat Terri Niles).
HD-18 (2nd Position) (Northern Vancouver suburbs):
Republican incumbent Greg Cheney is running for State Senate, two Republicans (and one Democrat) are running to replace him in this ultra-competitive district: former Battle Ground Mayor Philip Johnson and journalist John Ley.
Johnson is running as a moderate, focusing on building affordable housing, supporting law enforcement, and providing a social service safety net for seniors and veterans. Ley is running hard to Johnson’s right, wanting to cut spending, cut taxes, and promote “health freedom.” Ley also has a few skeletons in his closet, as he was charged with felony voter fraud after he used his friends address to register as a candidate in 2022. He pleaded not guilty to the charge and is due to stand trial in October.
Of course, this makes him a perfect candidate to be endorsed by the Clark County Republican Party! Luckily for their chances of keeping the seat, Johnson appears to have more momentum (having the fundraising lead). Johnson should be able to grab one of the two top-two spots (alongside Democra John Zingale), but if he doesn’t (and Ley gets it instead), then the odds of this district flipping to the Democrats increases exponentially.
HD-26 (1st Position) (Western Pierce/southern Kitsap Counties):
The Democrats are eager to flip this Democratic-leaning seat, moreso after Republican incumbent Spencer Hutchins announced his retirement. Two Republicans (and one Democrat) are running to replace Hutchins: businessman Jim Henderson and former State Representative Jesse Young.
Henderson is running as a moderate, focusing on growing the economy, supporting law enforcement, and working across the aisle. Young’s running a bit to his right, focusing on supporting small businesses, supporting fiscal responsibility, and shifting some parts of government-funded healthcare to the private sector.
Henderson is backed by retiring Representative Hutchins, State Representative Michelle Caldier (who also represents this district), and several other sitting State Legislators. Young has the fundraising lead and is backed by the Kitsap County GOP & the Washington Fraternal Order of Police. It’s pretty much a toss-up to see who gets the other top-two spot (alongside Democrat Adison Richards). If I had to guess, I’d say Henderson gets it based on the institutional support, but I can definitely see Young’s financial advantage and name recognition get him it instead.
HD-26 (2nd Position) (Western Pierce/southern Kitsap Counties):
The Democrats are a lot less optimistic about flipping this seat (despite it being the same district as our last one). Why? Republican incumbent Michelle Caldier, that’s why! Caldier has proven herself to be a strong incumbent, routinely outrunning the top of the ticket in all four of her re-election bids. Still though, she’s attracted a Republican opponent (alongside two Democrats and an Independent) in businesswoman Rachel Harter.
Harter is running hard to Caldier’s right, supporting a “parents bill of rights,” promising to “protect women’s spaces,” and embrace “economic freedom. If you noticed, I just copied what I wrote about HD-02 candidate Matt Marshall here for Harter. Why? Because their priority pages are the exact same. I’m not kidding, take a look for yourself:
IT’S THE SAME THING! You can go to both of their campaign websites and verify this too, same policies, same AI-generated images, it’s a carbon copy save for their names.
Anyway, Caldier has a wide fundraising advantage over Harter, but she’s recently gotten into some hot water. She was first accused of bullying legislative staffers in December, but was then violated legislative conduct by leaking the names of the staffers who complained about her to the local news. Caldier claimed she wasn’t trying to retaliate, but her argument was unconvincing. Is this going to affect her chances of making it to the top-two? Probably not (her fundraising lead and name recognition should be enough to push her into a spot), but it might hurt her chances of winning re-election in November. She’ll probably get a spot alongside Democrat Tiffiny Mitchell (who used to be an Oregon State Representative), setting up an interesting November clash where Caldier’s ticket-splitting prowess might finally come to an end.
HD-31 (2nd Position) (Eastern Pierce/southern King Counties):
With Republican incumbent Eric Robertson retiring, two Republicans (and two Democrats) are running to replace him in this Republican-leaning district: Orting Mayor Joshua Penner and businessman Brandon Beynon.
Penner is running as a standard Republican, promising to restore public safety, funding schools, and standing up to “Seattle’s harmful agenda.” You won’t believe this, Beynon is running on a carbon copy of Matt Marshall and Rachel Harter’s platforms. Seriously, look at Beynon’s section on women and compare it to Marshall and Harter’s from the last district overview:
IT’S THE SAME DAMN THING AGAIN!!!
Three different right-wing culture warrior candidates all have the exact same platform. If one of these guys wins a spot in November, someone with more time on their hands (like some Washington journalists) should really look into this. Where is this template with the same right-wing language and AI images coming from?
Anyway, Penner has the wide fundraising lead and is backed by retiring Representative Robertson and several local officials. Outside of Beynon calling himself “Let’s Go Brandon Beynon,” there’s not much else there. Penner will almost certainly grab one of the two top-two spots. As for the other one, I don’t think Penner will get it (the district isn’t that Republican for it to happen, only backing Trump by seven in 2020), so I’ll go with Democrat Brian Gunn because he’s the only Democrat to have any sort of online presence.
HD-35 (2nd Position) (Mason County area):
Republican incumbent Travis Couture is running for reelection, but he first has to secure a top-two spot in the primary against the Republican Mayor of Shelton Eric Onisko and Democrat/Washington State Gambling Commission official James DeHart.
Couture’s a pretty interesting guy, voting like a standard right-winger on things like guns and “parental rights” in education, while also voting to increase medicaid rates and expanding medicaid for kids with chronic conditions. It’s not like Onisko is running because Couture isn’t conservative enough either, as Onisko has promised to work across the aisle and increase funding for mental illness support.
Couture should get one of the two spots pretty easily, while the second one is probably going to go to DeHart, mostly thanks to Onisko not raising any money and the district still being pretty competitive on paper (only backing Trump by one point in 2020).
HD-39 (1st Position) (Eastern Skagit/Snohomish Counties):
Republican incumbent Sam Low is running for reelection to this solidly Republican district, but first he has to get a top-two spot in the primary against former Republican State Representative Robert Sutherland, potential fake Democrat Zephaniah Borynack, and Independent nurse Kathryn Lewandowsky.
Low is running as a moderate, focusing on public safety, protecting farms, and protecting the environment. Sutherland is running hard to his right, focusing on cutting the gas tax, promoting “election integrity,” and supporting “medical freedom.” I know we don’t talk about Democrats here in Grand Old Primary, but I have to mention Borynack. He’s been denounced by the Democratic Parties of Skagit & Snohomish Counties for multiple sexual misconduct charges and potential ties to Robert Sutherland. That’s because both he & Sutherland signed a pledge that pretty much amounted to a far-right Christian Nationalist platform.
Low has a wide fundraising lead over Sutherland and the backing of most of his legislative colleagues & a ton of local officials in the district. Sutherland is backed by the Skagit & Snohomish Counties Republican Parties, but his fundraising leaves a lot to be desired. Thanks to Borynack being essentially a trash candidate (and the Democrats coming out against him), Low and Sutherland probably take both top-two spots, locking the Democrats out and setting up a rematch of their 2022 matchup (which Low won by 12).
And that’s all for this edition of Grand Old Primary! Before I go though, in the effort of accountability, I would like to go over my track record so far. This is just from the Arizona & Tennessee primaries:
ARIZONA- 30 RACES PREDICTED, 26 CORRECT (Missed AZ-08, HD-15, HD-27, & Maricopa County Board District 2)
(87% CORRECT)
TENNESSEE- 28 RACES PREDICTED, 22 CORRECT (Missed SD-08, HD-20, HD-27, HD-33, HD-65, & HD-68)
(78% CORRECT)
My goal for this is to be around 80-85% to start and then eventually work up to 90%+, but so far it’s a good start I’d say. We’ll see if this holds after tonight, but so far so good. Anyway, I’ll be back on Saturday to go over all the Republican primaries in Hawaii (yes there are Republican state legislative primaries in Hawaii, four to be exact!), so until then, you can follow me on Twitter at @Uncrewed and don’t forget to stay awesome!