Grand Old Primary- July 30th, 2024

Covering the Republican primaries in Arizona!

GRAND OLD PRIMARY - JULY 30th, 2024

INTRO:

Hello everyone and welcome to the first edition of Grand Old Primary! For those new around here, Grand Old Primary is an in-depth look at the most important Republican Primaries throughout the country. A new edition will be out with every primary, so we’re kicking things off with today’s primaries in Arizona. We’ll be covering everything from Congressional races to the State Legislature and even a few county-level races, so without further ado, let’s get into it!

US Senate:

The Republican race to replace retiring moderate Democrat-turned-Independent US Senator Kyrsten Sinema features three different candidates, the 2022 nominee for Governor/former news anchor Kari Lake, Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, and neuroscientist Beth Reye. Reye doesn’t really have a lot to talk about, so we’ll be focusing on the two main contenders, Lake and Lamb.

If you have followed politics in any form since the 2022 election cycle, you’ve probably heard about Kari Lake. She was a news anchor in the Phoenix area for decades before leaving the industry in 2021 after she slowly became more and more outspoken in her right-wing views. That also led her to become a darling on the right, with former President Donald Trump endorsing her when she launched her campaign for Governor shortly after leaving the news industry. After defeating an establishment-backed opponent in the primary, Lake was involved in one of the most high-profile gubernatorial races in the country in 2022 against State Secretary of State Katie Hobbs. Now did Lake do anything to moderate her views in order to get a winning edge in November? Nope, she continued to do what got her to the dance in the first place. She rallied against the 2020 election results (claiming they were rigged, which we’ll see a lot more of as we look at more races here) and constantly denigrated former US Senator John McCain. Despite all of that, Lake looked like the favorite to win thanks to a favorable environment for the Republican Party across the country, with the final average of polls showing her up by around three points.

Then came election night, which became election week, which then became Kari Lake losing. Lake ended up losing by 0.6% to Hobbs thanks to Hobbs’s strong performance in suburban Phoenix (which has been running away from the type of conservatism Lake was spouting). Lake, always one to take a loss on the chin, filed numerous lawsuits to overturn the election, saying that there were thousands of illegal votes cast and that ballot printers were tampered with, among other claims. These lawsuits never really went anywhere and Lake was stuck in court hell while Hobbs officially became Governor of Arizona.

That brings us to today, with Lake officially declaring her run for Senate in late 2023. She immediately got the Trump endorsement alongside the Senate GOP’s endorsement in 2024. But with polls showing Lake losing to Democratic nominee/Congressman Ruben Gallego by an average of five points, some Republicans may want to look elsewhere.

And Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb is hoping to be that elsewhere. Lamb has been sheriff of Pinal County (a suburban/exurban county located between Phoenix and Tucson) since 2016. Since then, he’s made a name for himself on the right-wing media circuit and the police television circuit. From refusing to enforce COVID-19 restrictions, to trying to intimidate George Floyd protestors, to pushing claims that the 2020 election was stolen from President Trump, Lamb’s definitely got the conservative bonafides. Despite all of that, he’s still getting lapped by Lake in the fundraising department and the endorsement department.

Kari Lake is definitely the favorite here, with the latest polls showing her up by over 10 points on Lamb. However, there’s still probably going to be a substantial amount of Republicans voting for Lamb. Whether that’s because they don’t like Lake’s bombastic personality, her election denialism, or her losing record, it’s something she’s definitely going to have to worry about if she wants any chance of defeating Ruben Gallego in November.

AZ-01 (Eastern Phoenix Suburbs):

Republican incumbent David Schweikert has been mired by ethics issues throughout the last few years and it nearly cost him in both the primary and general elections in 2022. He survived the primary thanks to a split field (only winning with 43% of the vote), but this year he looks a lot more secure. He’s facing two opponents: businessman Robert Backie and retired FBI special agent Kim George. Backie is attacking Schweikert over his ethics issues, while George is running on securing the border and promoting “election integrity.” Both of them do share one issue though, they don’t really have any money. Both Backie and George have raised around $100,000 each, a pittance compared to Schweikert’s over $2 million raised. Schweikert’s the clear favorite, meaning that he’ll have to turn his attention to whoever emerges from the clown car Democratic primary happening at the same time.

AZ-02 (Northern Arizona):

Republican incumbent Eli Crane has made a name for himself as a Freedom Caucus bomb thrower in his short time in Congress. From voting against Kevin McCarthy in his first Speaker election in 2023 to then voting to remove McCarthy as Speaker in later 2023, he definitely made a big enemy in the former Speaker. That has led to McCarthy’s allies backing former USDA official/former Yavapai County Supervisor Jack Smith in this race. Here’s the problem for Smith, he hasn’t exactly raised enough money to run a competitive race. In four months of running, Smith hasn’t even raised $100,000. That’s not going to be enough when Crane has the backing of former President Trump, fellow Congressmen Paul Gosar & Andy Biggs, and has over $1.3 million cash on hand. Crane’s the favorite here, meaning Kevin McCarthy’s revenge tour probably hits another snag (after failing to unseat Nancy Mace in South Carolina last month).

AZ-06 (Southeastern Arizona):

This will be one of America’s most high profile battleground districts this November, but first Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani has to get through a primary challenge from former school board member Kathleen Winn. Winn has attacked Ciscomani, one of the more moderate Republicans in the House, for being weak on the border and for voting to fund the government last year. Meanwhile, Ciscomani has raised over $4 million (compared to $226,000 for Winn) and has the endorsement of pretty much everyone in Republican politics (outside of Trump). Ciscomani is the heavy favorite here, but it’ll be interesting to see how much a conservative protest vote there is for Winn.

AZ-08 (Western Phoenix Suburbs):

Welcome to America’s most cursed Republican primary this year. We’ll start with the reason why this district features such a clown car primary to begin with, Republican incumbent Debbie Lesko. Lesko is running for Maricopa County Supervisor (because Congress is that bad), so six different candidates are running to replace her. We’ll start with attorney Abe Hamadeh, who was also the Republican nominee for Attorney General in 2022. Hamadeh only lost that race by 300 votes, leading to allegations of fraud and lawsuits running rampant. Nothing ever came of those, but Hamadeh did make a name for himself with them, leading to him earning endorsements from Kari Lake and former President Trump (though that’s been undercut recently when Trump endorsed Masters alongside Hamadeh). It hasn’t stopped him from being on the receiving end of some downright nasty attacks from our next leading contender…

What can be said about venture capitalist Blake Masters that hasn’t been said already. He was the 2022 Republican nominee for US Senate against Mark Kelly, running arguably one of the worst campaigns in the country. From embracing the racist Great Replacement Theory to blaming black people for gun violence to praising the Unabomber, it came as no shock when he lost by five points in November. But now he’s back, throwing nearly $4 million of his own money to win a safe Republican seat. He does have a few interesting endorsements, notably former President Trump (alongside Hamadeh) and US Senator/fellow Peter Thiel partner/the Republican nominee for Vice President JD Vance. He has also attracted controversy yet again for his campaign, attacking Hamadeh for having “Islamic connections,” and claimed that his father was living in the US illegally at the time of Hamadeh’s birth. It’s been that nasty of a race folks.

Does it get any better? No, because our next leading contender is former Congressman Trent Franks. Franks represented this district from 2002-2017, when he resigned after it was revealed that he pressured multiple women to bear his children as surrogate mothers and then retaliated against them after they declined. Franks resigned in disgrace (leading to Lesko winning the ensuing special election), but now he’s back. He has apologized for the scandal and seems to mostly be running on his conservative record, but no one wants to endorse him (understandably so). Despite all of that, he has raised over half a million dollars and has maintained a strong 2nd-3rd place in polling.

This leaves State House Speaker Ben Toma in a weird position. He’s got the establishment lane locked down, earning the endorsement of Lesko and former Governor Jan Brewer. He’s only raised almost $1 million, but that hasn’t necessarily translated into polling support, with most polls showing Toma in 3rd or 4th place. He’s just too boring quite frankly, being overshadowed by the Masters/Hamadeh fight. If there’s one thing we’ve learned about Republican politics in the Trump Era, it’s that bombastic fighting is always going to overshadow someone who keeps their head down and tries to get stuff done and that’s hurting Toma immensely.

Our final two candidates are State Senator Anthony Kern and businessman Pat Briody. Kern attracted national media attention for serving as a fake elector for President Trump in 2020. That hasn’t translated into support though, as Kern has struggled with fundraising and only has endorsements from a few local officials and the guy that got President Biden to say “Let’s Go Brandon” (yes he is really scraping the bottom of the barrel). Briody has focused on term limits and has multiple pictures of his dog on his campaign website, making him the only wholesome candidate in this race.

So who’s going to win this clown car primary? Well, polling shows Hamadeh and Masters pretty much neck and neck, with Franks, Toma, Kern, and Briody all trailing behind. If I had to guess, I would give the edge to Masters. The last second Trump endorsement of both him and Hamadeh pretty much cut the only advantage Hamadeh had going for him. I still think Abe can win, but right now it’s advantage Masters.

SD-01 (Yavapai County):

Republican incumbent Ken Bennett is a pretty interesting guy. He was originally elected to the State Senate in 1998, eventually ascending to State Senate President in 2002. He later became Arizona Secretary of State in 2009, a position he held until he ran for Governor in 2014. That failed, alongside a run for Congress and another run for Governor in 2018. He would remain on the benches until the aftermath of the 2020 Presidential election, where he would re-emerge as the State Senate liaison to the controversial Maricopa County election audit. The audit didn’t amount to much, but it did give Bennett a chance to re-enter the political sphere, which he did in 2022, narrowly winning his primary and comfortably winning the general election in this safely Republican seat. Since rejoining the Senate, Bennett has been a surprising thorn in the side of legislative Republicans. He has constantly voted against sending conservative culture war bills to the ballot as referendums (aka ballot referrals). From a bill banning voting centers to a bill banning trans-inclusive policies, Bennett has constantly voted against sending those bills to the ballot as referendums.

This has earned Bennett the ire of conservatives and two candidates have stepped up to face him. First is former State Representative/2022 Secretary of State nominee Mark Finchem. Finchem, who represented a suburban Tucson district before moving here, was one of the biggest proponents of the lie that the 2020 election was stolen from President Trump. That ultimately led to Finchem both winning the Republican primary for Secretary of State in 2022 and then losing the ensuing general election by five points. Finchem claimed fraud cost him the race (because of course he did), but much like the other Republican lawsuits to overturn the 2022 elections, it hasn’t really gone anywhere. So Finchem backed up his bags, moved to Yavapai County, and launched a run for this seat. He’s got some heavy hitters backing him too, with former President Trump endorsing him. One thing that might complicate things for Finchem is the presence of another right-wing candidate, businessman Steve Zipperman, who came within 300 votes of beating Bennett in 2022. Zipperman shares a lot of the same priorities as Finchem (fighting “election fraud,” securing the border, etc.) and his residual name recognition may be enough to cost him the race.

So the main question is if Zipperman pulls enough of the right-wing vote to cost Finchem the race and hand it to Bennett. It’s really a 50/50 shot it happens, but I think it doesn’t and Finchem is able to narrowly edge Bennett for the win.

SD-02 (Northern Phoenix):

Republican incumbent Shawnna Bolick was appointed to this highly competitive suburban seat in mid-2023. Bolick’s a pretty establishment-aligned conservative, focusing on more traditional conservative issues like school choice, fiscal responsibility, and attracting businesses to Arizona. Her opponent, businessman Josh Barnett, is running hard to Bolick’s right, focusing on election integrity and shutting down the border. Bolick is thumping Barnett in both the endorsement and fundraising departments though, so she’s the prohibitive favorite. Whoever wins here though will be in for a big November election against Democratic State Representative Judy Schweibert in a race that may just decide control of the State Senate.

SD-04 (Northeastern Phoenix):

Two Republicans are running for the chance to face Democratic State Senator Christine Porter Marsh in one of Arizona’s most competitive State Senate districts: school board member Carine Werner and US Navy veteran Ken Bowers. Werner’s running as a more mainstream Republican compared to Bowers (who calls himself a MAGA Republican) and is absolutely destroying him in the fundraising department (with Bowers not raising any money as far as I can tell). This should be an easy win for Werner.

SD-07 (Eastern Arizona):

Where do you even begin with Republican incumbent Wendy Rogers? The US Air Force veteran has run for so many different offices in the last decade, it’s too long to list here. She finally got her breakthrough in 2020, unseating incumbent State Senator Sylvia Allen (who had a whole bunch of controversies surrounding her). Since then, she’s been one of the biggest bomb throwers in the Arizona State Senate. She started her tenure by trying to overturn the 2020 election results (always a good start), then followed it up by giving a speech at a far-right political convention (organized by one of America’s biggest anti-semites, Nick Fuentes). Rogers was actually censured for that, but it didn’t really slow her down as she went on to claim that the 2022 Buffalo mass shooting was a false flag. Did any of this matter to voters? Not really, as Rogers won her primary in 2022 by nearly 20 points and the general election by 27 points. Going into 2024, Rogers looks as powerful and controversial as ever.

This is where Wendy’s opponent, State Representative David Cook, enters. Cook isn’t really a moderate (though he has broken with the Republicans more than most of the party), but he’s still definitely to the left of Rogers. He has attacked Rogers for the aforementioned controversies alongside her residency issues, claiming that Rogers doesn’t actually live in the district. For his part, Cook has gotten some pretty decent endorsements, most notably State Superintendent Tom Horne. However, Rogers has both a big fundraising advantage and the (pun intended) trump card in former President Trump’s endorsement. Rogers is probably the favorite to win, but who knows, maybe voters in this deeply Republican district have had enough of Rogers’s antics and want a more normal Republican. Probably not, but the Arizona establishment is probably hoping that’s the case.

SD-17 (Suburban Tucson):

We’re continuing our streak of covering controversial Republican incumbents with State Senator Justine Wadsack. Wadsack burst onto the political scene in 2022, unseating incumbent Senator Vince Leach in the primary. Leach was a pretty right-wing Senator, but Wadsack somehow managed to outflank him, promoting QAnon conspiracy theories and general false claims about the 2020 Presidential election. Wadsack narrowly won in November and has since made a name for herself as another one of the biggest bomb throwers in the State Senate. She turned her back on Governor Hobbs during her State of the State address, tried to ban books about transgender and nonbinary teens, and did a photoshoot with a machine gun on Capitol grounds. All of this (and more) led to a recall petition being filed against Wadsack. That failed, but it did eventually lead to Leach entering the race for a rematch with Wadsack. 

Leach has attacked Wadsack for her controversies and for living outside of the district. Meanwhile, Wadsack has emphasized her conservative bonafides. What hasn’t helped Wadsack in recent days is a speeding ticket, which she got after going 71 mph in a 35 mph zone. She has claimed that she’s a victim of political persecution, but c’mon really Justine. As for who wins, it’s pretty much a tossup. There’s a reason why Wadsack defeated Leach in the first place (probably for being more in tune with the Republican voters in the district), but Leach does have more name recognition than most primary challengers thanks to his years of service. Gun to my head, I’d say Leach narrowly pulls out a win. Either way, whoever wins here will be in for one of Arizona’s most hotly contested State Senate races in this marginal district.

SD-30 (Western Arizona):

With Republican incumbent Sonny Borrelli term-limited, three candidates have emerged to replace him in this deeply Republican district: Mohave County Supervisor Hildy Angius, school board member Ashley Gerich, and conservative activist Kimberly Zanon. All three candidates are running on vaguely similar platforms (securing the border, fighting election fraud, etc.), though Angius stands out among them solely because of the amount of institutional support she has. Angius is backed by AZ-09 Congressman Paul Gosar, retiring Senator Borrelli, and both State Representatives in this district (Leo Biasiucci and John Gillette). Because of this, alongside Gerich and Zanon not raising much money, Angius is the favorite.

HD-01 (Yavapai County):

Republican incumbents Quang Nguyen and Selina Bliss are running for reelection. However, they’re facing one challenger, businesswoman Shawn Dell Wildman. Wildman’s running on a pretty bog standard right-wing platform (though she does have the endorsement of the infamous former Sheriff of Maricopa County Joe Arpaio), but she hasn’t really raised a ton of money. Nguyen and Bliss are probably going to win comfortably.

HD-07 (Eastern Arizona):

With Republican incumbent David Cook running for State Senate, there’s an open spot on this ticket alongside fellow State Representative David Marshall. As such, five candidates (not including Marshall) are running here: businessman/US Army veteran(???, we’ll get to that later) Steve Slaton, former State Representative Walter Blackman, former State Representative John Fillmore, businessman Andrew Costanzo (who lists Matt Gaetz as his inspiration, so ick), and motivational speaker Barby Ingle. All five of them are solidly right-wing, focusing on the same general issues. Slaton leads the pack in fundraising, with Blackman and Fillmore right behind him. Because of that, this election probably comes down to the personal differences in the candidates and, boy there are a lot of them.

Let’s start with Steve Slaton, who runs a Trump-themed merch store (that was actually parodied in South Park). Slaton has got some pretty big backers, including Kari Lake and State Senator Wendy Rogers. However, he’s also been under fire recently for potentially lying about his military past. Yeah remember when I put those question marks next to US Army veteran earlier, this is it. Slaton claimed to be in the US Army from 1973-1979, stationed in Vietnam and Korea flying helicopters. One problem, multiple different veterans organizations have no record of his service in Vietnam and his story of flying helicopters in Vietnam just doesn’t line up with the reality of the situation in the country at the time (the US Army flying helicopters in Vietnam just a few years after the end of the Vietnam War would have been a huge international incident). Slaton has called the allegations a “left wing smear,” and his endorsers have mostly stood by him (save for the Navajo County Republican Party, who called for him to withdraw).

The person who made that allegation to begin with was none other than Walter Blackman! Blackman has gone back and forth with Slaton in the primary, both over the military embellishment and over Slaton allegedly saying slurs about Blackman’s race (Blackman is black) and religion (Blackman is a Mormon). So with Slaton kind of sputtering, this should be Blackman’s race for the taking right? Well, not necessarily. Blackman’s kind of painted himself into a corner by aligning with retiring State Representative David Cook (who’s running against Wendy Rogers for State Senate). Blackman and Rogers have never really got along and with Rogers being pretty popular among Republicans in the district, that might come back and cost him.

That could leave the door open for John Fillmore, who’s looking to reenter the House after losing the 2022 primary to Cook and Marshall. Fillmore is probably as far-right as Slaton with none of the baggage. He made a name for himself in the House as a real bomb thrower, introducing bills to eliminate early voting and require all ballots to be counted by hand. His only problem is that he doesn’t really have any institutional support, relying mostly on residual name recognition.

It’s really a pure tossup to see who wins the primary alongside David Marshall. If I had to guess, I’d say Blackman wins (which would be the first time two black Republicans serve together in the same district), but Slaton’s definitely still in it despite the controversies. I could also see Fillmore sneak in, but that’s looking like a very narrow possibility at this point.

HD-10 (Eastern Mesa):

With both Republican incumbents Justin Heap (we’ll hear more about him later) and Barbara Parker resigning, three candidates are running to win two seats in this solidly conservative suburban district. Those three men are former Arizona Corporation Commissioner Justin Olson, doctor Ralph Heap (the father of Justin), and real estate agent Matt Greer. 

Heap and Olson (who ran for US Senate in 2022 and lost badly in the primary) are both running on the right flank of the party, promising to secure the border and secure elections. Greer, on the other hand, is running very much as a traditional conservative, focusing on more bread-and-butter issues like the economy and school choice. This could lead to an opening for Greer to advance to November, but he’s lagging behind both Heap and Olson in fundraising (though the state realtor’s PAC just gave him $60,000 in independent expenditures). As of now, I think Heap and Olson advance, but you should not count out Greer at all.

HD-14 (Gilbert):

Republican incumbent Laurin Hendrix is running for reelection in this solidly Republican district, but his fellow incumbent Travis Grantham is term-limited. This means four different candidates are running in this primary (not counting Hendrix): businesswoman Lalani Hunsaker, businessman Khyl Powell, businessman Joel Coen, and college professor Andrew Jackson. 

Hunsaker, Powell, and Jackson are all pretty far to the right (all three of them have sections on their website dedicated to election integrity and other culture war issues like the concept of gender), while Coen’s the only real traditional Republican here (focusing on things like the economy, mental health, and water resources). Hunsaker and Powell also lead the pack in fundraising, with Coen and Jackson trailing behind. Because of this, you’d think Hunsaker would have an advantage right?

Well it’s not so clear, because Hunsaker recently got in some water for something her husband did at a recent campaign event. As Lauren Hendrix was giving a speech about trying to cool down the rhetoric used by some candidates in this race, Hunsaker’s husband got up and started ranting at Hendrix. When the local district Republican Chairman tried to intervene, Hunsaker’s husband headbutted him! Now Lalani claims that Hendrix made false claims about her son all the while her husband is facing assault charges. It’s messy as hell and I wouldn’t be shocked if it cost Hunsaker a spot in November. That leaves the door open for Powell (who’s running on a slate with Hendrix) or maybe even Coen if he plays his cards right. For now, I think Powell ultimately pulls it off, but Hunsacker is definitely still in the running and Coen has a small shot.

HD-15 (Eastern Phoenix Exurbs):

Much like in HD-14, we have one Republican incumbent running for reelection and the other not doing so. In this case, State Representative Neal Carter is running for another term, while fellow State Representative Jacqueline Parker has declined to run for a third term. Three candidates (alongside Carter) are running to fill this solidly Republican district’s two seats: businessman Michael Way, US Army veteran Peter Anello, and US Army veteran Alex Stovall.

All three candidates are solidly right-wing (though Stovall got caught in hot water during his 2022 Congressional run for saying some disparaging things about the Republican Party). Way has the fundraising advantage (mostly because of self-funding), but Anello is backed by Carter and Parker, while Stovall is backed by former Congressman Trent Franks (remember him? From earlier when I talked about AZ-08). As for who joins Carter in November, I’m leaning towards it being Anello. Way’s spent a lot of money (though it seems to be going mostly towards consultants), but Anello has some good institutional support. Can definitely see Way’s money being the deciding factor here, but for now, Anello’s the favorite.

HD-16 (Western Pinal County/Western Tucson):

After Democrat Keith Seaman surprisingly won one of this district’s two seats in 2022, multiple different candidates have stepped up to win the seat from him. Republican incumbent Teresa Martinez already has this district’s other seat, so three candidates are looking to join her in November to defeat Seaman: businessman Chris Lopez, former Coolidge City Councilman Rob Hudelson, and conservative activist Gabby Mercer. 

Lopez has the fundraising lead and is the most traditional Republican in the race (focusing on the economy and investing in schools). He’s also backed by Martinez and State Senator TJ Shope (who represents this district in the Senate). That could be because Hudelson was the 2022 Republican who lost this district to Seaman! How did that happen? Well, Hudelson is pretty far-right, with election integrity, complaints about COVID mandates in the year 2024, and a full-throated endorsement of Christian Nationalism on his website. However, Hudelson has raised a decent amount of money and was the recent beneficiary of a six digit independent expenditure from the far-right Make Liberty Win PAC. I know Republicans here really want Lopez to win (because it’ll make it easier to defeat Seaman in November), but Hudelson’s got residual name recognition and that six figure expenditure will definitely help him. It’s a pure toss-up between Lopez and Hudelson, but if I had to guess, I’d say Lopez’s institutional support narrowly pushes him over the finish line.

HD-17 (Suburban Tucson):

Republican incumbents Rachel Jones and Cory McGarr are running for reelection, but they’re facing a challenge from businesswoman Anna Orth. There’s not that much difference between the three candidates, as Jones & McGarr are two of the most far-right Representatives in the State House and Orth is similarly on the right flank of the party. I think Orth is trying to tie herself to Vince Leach (who’s challenging the Jones & McGarr-backed Justine Wadsack), but other than that, there’s not much dissimilar between these three. Jones & McGarr should win here.

HD-25 (Northern Yuma/Western Maricopa Counties):

Republican incumbent Michael Carbone is running for reelection, but his fellow State Representative Tim Dunn is trying for a promotion to the State Senate. As such, three candidates are running to join Carbone on the ticket in this deeply Republican district: US Air Force veteran/former American Ninja Warrior contestant Nick Kupper, businessman Steve Markegard, and conservative activist Gary Garcia Snyder. All three are solidly right-wing (as expected in such a deeply Republican district), so the only thing separating them is the endorsements and fundraising.

Kupper leads the pack in those categories, with a fundraising lead and support from the Arizona Police Association and Congressman Matt Gaetz (ick). Markegard is close behind in fundraising and Snyder isn’t that far back either. Snyder does have some residency issues surrounding him though (and is currently being sued by a former State Representative about it). I think Kupper is probably the favorite here.

HD-27 (Northern Glendale/Southern Peoria):

With Republican incumbents Kevin Payne and Ben Toma term-limited and running for Congress respectively, four candidates are running for this district’s two seats: former State Representative Tony Rivero, conservative activist Lisa Fink, school board member Linda Busam, and businessman Brian Morris. 

Fink, Busam, and Morris are all pretty solid conservatives, while Rivero is definitely a more traditional Republican (focusing on the economy and once pushing back on President Trump’s rhetoric on immigration when he was in the White House). Rivero also has the fundraising advantage and $50,000 in outside support money from the Arizona Realtors PAC. Fink is right behind Rivero in fundraising and has the backing of State Representative Steve Montenegro. Busam probably has the most impressive endorsements, with Congresswoman Debbie Lesko and State Representative Beverly Pingerelli backing her. Finally, Morris enjoys the backing of the Arizona Police Association and several Peoria elected officials.

This is really anybody’s race, but if I had to guess, I’d say Rivero’s money pushes him into one of the two spots and the other one goes to Busam thanks to her institutional support. I can definitely see Fink winning a spot though. Whoever does win should be favored in November, but this district is trending towards the Democrats (only backing Trump by 8 in 2020). 

HD-28 (Sun City/Northern Peoria):

Republican incumbents David Livingston and Beverly Pingerelli are running for reelection in this solidly conservative district in the western suburbs of Phoenix, but they first have to get through realtor Susan Black. Black has put up some decent fundraising numbers and was endorsed by the State Senator for this district/floundering AZ-08 candidate Anthony Kern. The two incumbents have also raised some decent money though and have the backing of several prominent local politicians like Debbie Lesko. Livingston and Pingerelli should be fine, but Black will probably take a decent amount of the vote.

Maricopa County Attorney:

Republican incumbent Rachel Mitchell won a special election here by five points in 2022, becoming the second best-performing Republican in Maricopa County that year (behind State Treasurer Kimberly Yee). Has that stopped the right flank of the party from wanting to primary her? Nope! Mitchell is facing off against attorney Gina Godbehere in a rematch of their 2022 primary. Mitchell won that race by around 15 points, but we’ll see if it repeats again this year.

Mitchell is running on a pretty traditional conservative “law and order” campaign, while Godbehere is trying to appeal to the far-right by promising to fight election fraud and even has a section on her website that’s pretty much a wink to Trump’s trial in Manhattan, promising that she would never extradite a candidate to another jurisdiction out of state. Mitchell is also being backed by pretty much every law enforcement organization in Maricopa County, while Godbehere’s biggest endorser seems to be former State AG/failed 2022 Senate candidate Mark Brnovich. Mitchell’s also got a hefty fundraising advantage, so she’s probably the favorite unless the bottom really falls out for the traditional wing of the Republican Party in Maricopa County.

Maricopa County Recorder:

This is probably the biggest county race anywhere in the United States this year, just for the implications of how elections are run in Maricopa County. Republican incumbent Stephen Richer flipped this office in 2020 from the Democrats and since then has pretty much completely angered the far-right by not giving credence to their insane theories on election fraud. It started with the Maricopa County audit and then cascaded once the 2022 elections ended with narrow Republican losses. Richer’s been public enemy number one for far-right Republicans, which has led to two of them stepping up to face him. Those two are State Representative Justin Heap and software engineer Don Hiatt.

Heap is very much the favorite of the far-right, with everyone from Congressman Andy Biggs to Kari Lake backing him. He’s promised to clean up voter rolls, make election results faster (without saying how), and restore confidence in elections. Hiatt’s promising much of the same, but is calling himself the only true “MAGA” candidate in the race (attacking Heap for not saying that the 2020 and 2022 elections were fraudulent). The problem for Hiatt though is that his fundraising is weak and doesn’t really have any endorsements to speak of. Speaking of those two things, Richer is leading the pack in fundraising by a good amount and has some pretty decent endorsements (the firefighters union chief among them). 

Listen, Richer’s done a really good job in charge of Maricopa County’s elections. Is he perfect? No, but that doesn’t mean he should be thrown out in favor of someone like Heap just because Republicans are turning off suburban voters so badly that they’re claiming fraud because of it. Richer realizes this too and said that he won’t vote for President Trump in November. Sadly, it might cost him his job. I think Heap pulls this one out, mostly because the primary base for the Republican Party is just too far gone on election issues. If Richer does lose, I would not be shocked if he endorsed the Democrat running in November (attorney/US Navy veteran Tim Stringham). 

Maricopa County School Superintendent:

Let’s move away from something as controversial as elections and onto something less controversial, school issues!

Uh, I might be in too deep for the Republican culture wars folks. Anyway, Republican incumbent Steve Watson is running for reelection, but is facing two opponents: teacher Shelli Boggs and teacher Nickie Kelley. 

Watson is running on his record, pointing to the success of Maricopa County schools since he was first elected in 2016. However, he does have one giant mark against him and that’s the numerous accounting irregularities in his office. His office amassed nearly $2 million in debt in 2022, which earned him a verbal reprimand from the County Board of Supervisors. It’s also earned him a serious threat at his job.

Now are Boggs and Kelley running on that? Not really. Both of them are focusing on the culture war stuff (parents rights, getting rid of CRT and “anti-American curriculum,” etc.). Boggs is backed by most of the Freedom Caucus State Legislators (and failed swimmer Riley Gaines), while Kelley is backed by former State Superintendent Diane Douglas.

Watson’s failures have left him vulnerable and his mediocre fundraising isn’t helping him that much. It has allowed Boggs to take a fundraising lead and allowed her to take prime position in defeating Watson. I think she’ll do that, setting up for an interesting November race against Democratic nominee/former Maricopa County Schools administrator Laura Metcalfe.

Maricopa County Sheriff:

The Democrats have controlled this office since 2016 when Paul Penzone unseated controversial (to say the least) incumbent Sheriff Joe Arpaio by almost 13 points! That was as Donald Trump carried the county by 3 and as John McCain carried the county in his final US Senate run by 16, so that should show you how hated Arpaio was. Either way, Penzone won reelection in 2020, but resigned last year. Because of that, three Republicans have thrown their names in the ring to replace him: former Chief Deputy Maricopa County Sheriff Jerry Sheridan, police officer Frank Milstead, and former DEA agent Mike Crawford.

Sheridan, who was the 2020 nominee, is running on a lot of the same ideas that made his former boss (Arpaio) unpopular. He’s calling for bringing back the unpopular “tent city,” which cost taxpayers millions of dollars for what was functionally an outdoor prison. However, he has the fundraising lead and is backed by many prominent State Legislators and Congresswoman Debbie Lesko. Milstead’s running on a pretty interesting platform, prioritizing de-escalation and wanting to train police officers on not being biased and to have cultural awareness. Though before you think he’s some secret liberal, he’s also made border security a big part of his platform. He’s backed by the Arizona State Trooper Organization and surprisingly Joe Arpaio. Finally, Mike Crawford is running on auditing the Sheriff’s Department and putting an end to lawsuits that have cost taxpayers money.

Sheridan’s probably the favorite right now (he beat Arpaio in the 2020 primary, so he’s at least well-known), but Milstead can definitely win if conservatives are hesitant to nominate the same guy that lost by 11 in 2020. 

Maricopa County Treasurer:

Incumbent Treasurer John Allen is running again, but first has to get through accountant William Lichtsinn before he can get to November. Allen’s focusing on his record, while Lichtsinn is focusing on improving transparency in office. Lichtsinn has some somewhat impressive endorsements from AZ-08 candidate Abe Hamadeh and Corporation Commissioner Jim O’Connor, However in a race as downballot (and as non-controversial) as this, name recognition is probably the deciding factor, so Allen probably pulls it off.

Maricopa County Board of Supervisors District 1 (Eastern Phoenix Suburbs):

This is where things start to get really interesting. The four Republicans currently serving on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors have been under constant fire over the last four years from election deniers. Why? Well, certifying the 2020 and 2022 elections was probably the biggest reason why. This has led to several incumbent Supervisors either retiring or getting primary challengers, so let’s start here in District 1.

Republican incumbent Jack Sellers is running for reelection (after only winning by 400 votes in the 2020 general election), but he’s facing a challenge from Chandler City Councilman Mark Stewart. Sellers is running a pretty traditional conservative campaign (focusing on his record on the County Board), while Stewart is running to his right. He hasn’t explicitly said anything about recent elections being fraudulent, but he’s raised a lot of doubt about them. Hell, he hasn’t even said if he would have certified either the 2020 or 2022 elections! Because of this, Stewart has gotten some serious endorsements from the far-right, including AZ-05 Congressman Andy Biggs and several far-right State Legislators. Meanwhile, the biggest endorsement for Sellers seems to be former Governor Jan Brewer. 

In the first win for the far-right on the County Board, I think Stewart pulls this one. He’s been pretty even with Sellers in the fundraising department and seems to have some good momentum going into the primary. Now for his chances in November against the Democratic nominee/Tempe City Councilman Joel Navarro? That’s a whole other can of worms.

Maricopa County Board of Supervisors District 2 (Eastern Maricopa County):

Incumbent Supervisor Thomas Galvin is running for a full term after being appointed to the board in 2021. He first has to get through former State Senator Michelle Ugenti-Rita though. 

Ugenti-Rita is probably the clearest far-right candidate running for the County Board this year. She has attacked Galvin relentlessly, calling him a liberal and claimed that Galvin pushed sexually explicit content because he didn’t try to ban LGBTQ+ books in libraries. Of course, she’s also an election denier. She introduced several bills while in the State Senate to cut the availability of mail-in ballots and has said that she doesn’t have confidence that the past few elections in Maricopa County were handled properly. Because of this, she’s backed by a lot of far-right State Legislators, AZ-01 Congressman David Schweikert, and former Sheriff Joe Arpaio. To his credit, Galvin also has several impressive endorsements, including a lot of business PACs and former Governor Jan Brewer.

As for who wins, it’s probably going to be Ugenti-Rita. This is still a pretty conservative part of suburban Phoenix (backing Trump by nearly 6 points in 2020), so the voters are probably more in line with Ugenti-Rita than Galvin (who’s mostly running a traditional conservative campaign). Do the Democrats have a shot here in November? Maybe, it depends on how much Kamala Harris wins Maricopa by. If she wins by enough, it’ll give Democratic nominee/teacher Julie Cieniawski a shot to defeat Ugenti-Rita.

Maricopa County Board of Supervisors District 3 (Northern Phoenix):

With incumbent Supervisor Bill Gates (not that Bill Gates) not running for reelection, two Republicans have stepped up to replace him: former State Senator Kate Brophy McGee and attorney Tabatha LaVoie. This one’s a bit weird, as neither candidate is explicitly on the far-right. McGee’s focusing on things like taxes and funding law enforcement, while LaVoie is focusing on economic growth and only gives a little credence towards election integrity.

McGee should be the favorite here (given her electoral history and fundraising advantage), but she faces a tough November fight against the Democratic nominee/former Phoenix City Councilman Daniel Valanzuela. 

Maricopa County Board of Supervisors District 4 (Western Maricopa County):

Our final race we’re looking at today comes from the always controversial western suburbs of Phoenix. This is where Republican incumbent Clint Hickman isn’t running for reelection and also where AZ-08 Congresswoman Debbie Lesko is running for Supervisor. Lesko is facing businessman Bob Branch. Lesko’s an interesting figure. She did vote not to certify the 2020 election results, but she’s kind of backed off the whole “fraudulent elections!” thing in recent years. She still talks about election integrity, but she’s not expressing skepticism about the recent elections in Maricopa County. Branch, on the other hand, is fully on the election denying train and has painted himself as a staunch defender of former President Trump.

That obviously didn’t matter to Trump as he endorsed Lesko, alongside pretty much every single Republican elected official in the Phoenix area. Seriously, Lesko has been able to get former Governor Jan Brewer and AZ-05 Congressman Andy Biggs to agree on a candidate, that’s how unifying she is! She’s the obvious favorite to advance to November, where she enters as the big favorite against Democratic nominee/school board member David Sandoval.

And that’s it for the first edition of Grand Old Primary! No rest for the wicked, as I’ll be back on Thursday to go over the Republican primaries in Tennessee! Until then, follow me on Twitter/X/whatever Elon Musk wants to call it these days at @Uncrewed and don’t forget to be awesome!