Grand Old Primary- June 16th, 2025

Covering all the major Republican primaries in Virginia tomorrow!

GRAND OLD PRIMARY- June 16th, 2025

INTRO:

Hello everyone and welcome to another exciting edition of Grand Old Primary! If you’re new here, Grand Old Primary is a series where I cover all the most important Republican primaries going on throughout the country. From Congress to the State Legislature to even a few county races, they’re all here folks. Last week, we covered all the Republican primaries going down in New Jersey. I’ll go over how I did later, but first we’re on to the other state (or I guess commonwealth in this situation) holding elections this year, Virginia! No statewide races, but we do have several interesting state legislative primaries going down tomorrow night. So, without further ado, let’s get to it!

HD-21 (Western Prince William County):

This ultra-competitive NoVA district was the tipping point district in 2023. That was when Democrat Josh Thomas eked out a win to keep this district in Democratic hands, only winning by 3.6%, or a smidge under 1,000 votes. Obviously, this makes him a top target for Republicans this year. However, with the environment not looking great for them this year, his district hasn’t really been talked about as much for a flip opportunity.

What’s not helping matters is that there’s a three-way Republican primary here and none of the candidates have really started running a campaign yet. Your three Republican contenders are: businessman Gregory Lee Gorham, US Army veteran Sahar Smith, and attorney Xanthe Larsen. Smith’s the only candidate here with an actual website and she appears to be running as a cultural conservative. She touts her support for President Trump, her participation in anti-abortion activism, and her desire to “rekindle in our nation the love of God, family, and country-especially the Christian heritage upon which our founding fathers built this great land.” She also touts her opposition to “confusing gender ideologies,” just in case you couldn’t tell that she’s a culture warrior through and through. Gorham doesn’t have a website, but he’s appeared in the local news recently, mostly focusing on economic issues. He wants to make sure local data centers (a big issue in Prince William County elections) are properly taxed and he wants to repeal the county’s “Meal Tax” on food/beverages sold in restaurants. Larsen is a ghost candidate, she has no social media presence and hasn’t appeared at any of the district debates.

Given Smith’s actual campaign presence online and her history as a local Republican Party activist, I’m inclined to give her the win here. She’s a terrible fit for the district in a general election with a likely Democratic-favored electorate, but it is what it is. I’m genuinely surprised the Virginia GOP hasn’t put more effort in here honestly, this was the closest Democratic-won district in all of Virginia in 2023!

HD-37 (Lexington/Buena Vista to Craig County):

Republican incumbent Terry Austin is trying to fend off a challenge from his right in this deeply Republican district from engineer Austen Schwend.

Schwend says he’s running for two reasons: 1) He wants to expand liberty for future generations, 2) He wants conservatives to go on the offense rather than retreat and go on defense, and 3) He says Terry Austin hasn’t done either of those things. He also wants to increase government transparency, expand school choice, and end “publicly funded leftism” by declaring “leftist philosophies” to be “legally sectarian,” whatever the hell that means. He’s also attacked Austin for supporting the expansion of wind turbines in the district.

Speaking of Austin, he’s actually one of the more bi-partisan Republicans in the House, which is kind of crazy for someone representing a Trump+40 district. He’s been mostly focused on local issues in this primary, touting his efforts to expand emergency radio service in the district and increasing funding for local police departments. Austin’s not taking any chances though, as he’s broken out the big endorsements, with both Governor Glenn Youngkin and VA-05 Congressman John McGuire supporting him against Schwend. Austin also has a huge campaign finance advantage over Schwend, who has only raised a little over $20,000 for his campaign. Austin should win this one relatively easily, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s some conservative protest votes against him.

HD-46 (Smyth/Wythe/Grayson/western Pulaski Counties):

With Republican incumbent Jed Arnold retiring after just one term in this deeply Republican district, two Republicans have stepped up to replace him: political aide Adam Tolbert and Grayson County Supervisor Mitchell Cornett.

Tolbert’s running as a right-winger, promising to establish a Virginia Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), promote President Trump’s “America First Agenda,” and defend the unborn/2nd Amendment. Pretty much every Republican heavy hitter in Virginia has endorsed him. All three statewide elected officials (Governor Youngkin, Lieutenant Governor Seares, and Attorney General Miyares), House Minority Leader Todd Gilbert, retiring Delegate Arnold, and even former Governor/US Senator George Allen have all lined up behind Tolbert.

Cornett’s not dissuaded though, as he’s running on a similarly right-wing platform as Tolbert. Cornett supports protecting the unborn, defending the 2nd Amendment, and supporting small businesses. He also attacked Tolbert for accepting money from APCO, the local electric utility company, promising to stand up to them instead of taking money from them. Tolbert should be favored here, but I’m interested to see if Cornett’s status as a local elected official and his railing against APCO wins him a decent amount of votes. Right now though, I think the institutional support for Tolbert should be enough to push him over the line.

HD-49 (Danville area):

After over 20 years in the State House, Republican incumbent Danny Marshall has called it a career and will be retiring from this Republican-leaning district. He was a really strong incumbent too, only winning by less than 20% once (in 2007), so the Republicans are hoping they can find a strong replacement in this primary (especially because the Democrats might target this seat this year). Two Republicans have stepped up to the plate to replace Marshall: Danville City Councilman Madison Whittle and businesswoman Vanessa Reynolds Scearce.

Whittle’s running as a generic Republican, wanting to cut taxes/regulations, support the 2nd Amendment, and support local farmers. He’s gotten the lion’s share of endorsements here, with retiring Delegate Marshall, House Minority Leader Todd Gilbert, and several local elected officials all backing him. Scearce doesn’t really have any campaign infrastructure up online (outside of a Facebook page where she doesn’t really talk about her positions) and she has raised a pittance compared to Whittle. Whittle’s the big favorite to win here and advance to a competitive(?) November election.

HD-62 (Culpeper/Madison Counties area):

Republican incumbent/former VA-07 candidate Nick Freitas is retiring from this deeply Republican district, so we have a two-way Republican primary between businesswoman Karen Hamilton and Madison County Supervisor Clay Jackson to see who will probably succeed him in Richmond.

Hamilton, who’s the wife of another former VA-07 candidate/Trump Administration official Cameron Hamilton, is running as a standard right-winger. She opposes abortion, supports school choice (and proudly touts her career as a “homeschool mom”), and supports law enforcement. She’s backed by retiring Delegate Freitas, House Minority Leader Todd Gilbert, and several local elected officials. On the other hand, Jackson is running a vaguely right-wing campaign. He wants to follow in President Trump’s footsteps in streamlining the federal government by streamlining the state government, shrinking the size of the government, and “help the private sector thrive.” He’s trying to set himself apart from Hamilton by touting his years in local government, arguing that it best prepares him to go to Richmond and get things done. That may be true, but Hamilton’s institutional support should be enough to get her the win here (even though Jackson has raised slightly more money than her).

HD-89 (Western Chesapeake/southern Suffolk):

With Republican incumbent Baxter Ennis retiring after just one term in this ultra-competitive district, it looks like this district will be a major battleground in November. However, it is June, so we have to get through the primaries first. On the Republican side, two candidates are running to replace Ennis: school board member Mike Lamonea and attorney Kristen Shannon.

Lamonea, who also used to be an ICE agent, is running as a moderate. He supports “parental rights” in education, lowering costs, and supporting law enforcement. He’s backed by retiring Delegate Ennis and the Koch-aligned Americans for Prosperity group. Shannon’s running more to his right, supporting school choice, the 2nd Amendment, and cutting “wasteful” government spending. Lamonea has easily lapped her in fundraising, which means (alongside the institutional support for Lamonea) that Lamonea should be favored here. Still though, whoever wins here is going to be in for a very long, costly November election against the Democrats.

HD-97 (North-central Virginia Beach):

If the Republicans won this district in 2023, they’d control the House right now. No tiebreakers or anything, if they had just won here, they’d be in control. Instead, they lost it by five points to Democrat Michael Feggans and now they want to win it back. They’ll have to pick one of two Republicans to face Feggans in November though, either former State Delegate Tim Anderson or teacher Christina Felder.

Anderson’s running as a standard right-winger, promising to support law enforcement, school choice, and the 2nd Amendment. He’s backed by pretty much every Virginia Beach Republican there is. From VA-02 Congresswoman Jen Kiggans to Virginia Beach Mayor Bobby Dyer and everyone in-between, they’re all backing Anderson. Where does that leave Felder? Not in a good place. She’s run a very vaguely moderate campaign of promising to be a community leader, supporting the 2nd Amendment, and promising to work across the aisle to get things done. Anderson has demolished Felder in fundraising, so combining that with his institutional support, means that Anderson is the huge favorite to win and advance to what should be a competitive November election against Feggans.

And that’s all for this edition of Grand Old Primary! Before I go, I’d like to go over how I did in predicting last week’s primaries in New Jersey, just for the sake of fairness:

NEW JERSEY- 11 RACES PREDICTED, 11 CORRECT (Always good to start the new cycle off with a perfect score!)

(100% CORRECT)

I’ll be back next week to cover the Republican primaries for the New York City Council, but until then, I’ve been Uncrewed/Chris, you can follow me on Twitter @Uncrewed (same on Bluesky!), and don’t forget to stay awesome!