State Legislative Election Watch- June 10th, 2025 (New Jersey)
Covering all the state legislative primaries in New Jersey tonight!
STATE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION WATCH- June 10th, 2025 (New Jersey Edition)
INTRO:
Hello everyone and welcome to the first ever edition of Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch! I’m Uncrewed/Chris and this is your one-stop-shop to everything you need to know about state legislative elections from around the country. We’ve got a lot of state legislative elections tonight, both primaries & special elections. We’ll cover the special elections in another edition coming out today, but first we’ve got primaries to cover. And what better place to start than in “The Garden State,” New Jersey! So, without further ado, let’s get to it!
DISCLAIMER:
There’s something important to note about the primaries this year in New Jersey. It’s the first time we’re having state primaries without the infamous County Line system. What was the County Line system? Well, it was a ballot design that essentially allowed party-endorsed candidates to receive a more favorable ballot position. Here’s what it looked like in Mercer County in the 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary for example:
Column A consisted of the party-endorsed candidates, while B, C, & D were not endorsed by the party. This led to a candidate pretty much winning every time they won the party endorsement. Well, that all changed in 2024 when the county line system was struck down by a judge. Democrats had a county line-free primary, but the Republicans kept using it (as the court order only applied to the Democratic primary because it was brought by Democrats). After the 2024 elections, the State Legislature passed a bill to standardize the ballot system and bring New Jersey to the rest of the civilized (in terms of ballots) world. For example, here’s what the new ballot design is going to look like in Bergen County in north Jersey:
A lot fairer right? Well, anything beats the old county line system. Anyway, onto the primaries!
AD-01 (Cumberland/Cape May Counties, Trump+11) (R-Held) (DEM Primary):
Three Democrats are running for two spots on the November ballot in this solidly Republican district: West Cape Mayor Carol Sabo, engineer Carolyn Rush, and US Coast Guard veteran Brandon Saffold. Rush & Saffold are running on a slate together, more specifically the same slate that gubernatorial candidate/Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop is running on (Democrats For Change). You’re going to be seeing a lot of Fulop-aligned candidates ahead, he’s really done a good job at recruiting candidates for downballot races.
Anyway, Rush/Saffold are running as normal Democrats, wanting to protect veterans, support womens’ rights, and vaguely institute “housing reform.” Outside of Fulop, they’re also endorsed by the New Jersey branch of the Working Families Party and Moms Demand Action. Sabo is mostly running on her tenure as Mayor of the tiny borough of West Cape May (population of 1,000!), saying that she’ll bring her commitment to put “people first” to Trenton. She’s only been endorsed by the Cape May County Democrats and has trailed the Fulop-aligned duo in fundraising. As such, I think Sabo ends up as the odd one out here as both Fulop-aligned candidates make it to November. If Sabo does make it through though, I think Rush is more likely to make it to November than Saffold thanks to name recognition (she ran for Congress in both 2022 & 2024).
AD-02 (Atlantic County, Harris+2) (R-Held) (DEM Primary):
Four Democrats are running for two spots on the November ballot in one of New Jersey’s only two districts that backed Kamala Harris in 2024 but are fully represented in Trenton by Republicans (the other is LD-21 in north Jersey): attorney Maureen Rowan, Pleasantville City Councilwoman Joanne Famularo, school board member Lisa Bonnano, and former Atlantic City Councilman Bruce Weekes. Rowan & Famularo are running on a slate together, backed by the Atlantic County Democratic Party, while Bonnano & Weekes are running on the Democrats For Change slate that’s backed by Steve Fulop.
Rowan & Famularo are running a pretty standard Democratic campaign, emphasising their support for job creation, protecting medicaid, and supporting a woman’s right to choose. They’ve been lapping their opponents in fundraising, with Rowan herself self-funding nearly $30,000 for her campaign. Neither Bonnano nor Weekes have much of a campaign presence online, with the only notable thing about Weekes is that he got in some trouble earlier this year after he was sued for not paying over $2,000 in rent money. They haven’t reported raising any money and have no notable outside backers other than Fulop. The establishment-backed candidates should win here.
AD-04 (Southern Camden/Gloucester Counties, Harris+2) (D-Held) (DEM/GOP Primaries):
After winning what was probably THE most competitive State Assembly elections in the whole state in 2023, Democratic incumbents Cody Miller & Dan Hutchison are facing a primary challenge from two Fulop-backed opponents in their quest for a second term: businesswoman Vonetta Hawkins and Rutgers University-Camden official Brian Everett.
Miller & Hutchison are mostly running on their record in Trenton, touting their efforts to lower property taxes, funding public schools & the police, and cutting “wasteful spending.” They’re backed by the Gloucester County Democratic Party & several local unions. Everett & Hawkins are primarying the incumbents from the left, with both of them wanting to expand education & transport funding, expand opportunities for homeownership, and strengthen ethics laws. Outside of Fulop, Everett is backed by the New Jersey branch of the Working Families Party and several other progressive organizations (Hawkins doesn’t have any public endorsements outside of Fulop weirdly enough). Really the only thing holding them back (outside of being in a very machine-friendly area) is that their fundraising is very weak. Because of that, I think the incumbents pull out a win here. Still though, there is something that gives me some pause. You see, as I was writing this, it came out that south Jersey Democratic powerbroker George Norcross is actually spending a decent amount of money against the Fulop-aligned incumbents. That’s mostly come in the form of mailers, like this one:
(per @officially_phil on Twitter)
Leaving aside the obvious humor here that a man that’s the human embodiment of the word “Party Boss” (Norcross) is railing against party bosses, it’s really saying something that Norcross himself is intervening here. I still think the incumbents win here, but maybe keep an eye on this one.
On the Republican side, three candidates are running for two spots on the November ballot: school teacher/2023 nominee Amanda Esposito, real estate agent Gerard “Jerry” McManus, and military nurse Barbara McCormick.
Esposito & McManus are running on a slate together, having been endorsed by gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli & the Gloucester County GOP. Both are running as “America First Republicans,” wanting to fight for economic growth, government transparency, and “fiscal responsibility.” McCormick is running a bit to their right, wanting to end New Jersey’s sanctuary state status, “safeguard” funding for military/veterans affairs, and stop “overdevelopment” of high-density residential housing. She’s been endorsed by the Camden County GOP, a few local Gloucester County officials, and former State Senator/New Jersey conservative hero Ed Durr. In terms of fundraising, the Esposito/McManus slate has raised about double the amount of money McCormick has. Esposito should be a lock for one of the spots, but it’s going to be a close one between McManus and McCormick. I think McManus ultimately pulls it off though as he & Esposito brace themselves for a tough fight in November against whoever wins the Democratic primary.
AD-06 (Northern Camden County, Harris+27) (D-Held) (DEM Primary):
Democratic incumbents Louis Greenwald (the Majority Leader) & Melinda Kane (who was appointed to this seat back in January) are running for reelection in this deeply Democratic district, but first they have to face a Fulop-aligned slate in the primary. They’re being challenged by former school board member Rebecca Holloway and defense contractor Kevin Ryan.
Greenwald & Kane don’t appear to have much campaign infrastructure available online, but they’ve been spending money like crazy against their opponents. It mostly all appears to be in support of Kane too (maybe because Greenwald feels he’s more likely to win than his fellow appointed incumbent), as Greenwald & the campaign arm of the New Jersey Democratic Assembly Caucus have given a ton of money to Kane to spend. Meanwhile, Holloway & Ryan are running on a pretty vague, pro-progressive/anti-corruption platform, but they’ve both been endorsed by the New Jersey branch of the Working Families Party & a few other progressive organizations. Their finances have lagged the incumbents, but with the way their opponents have been spending money, it might not matter that much. They’ve run a pretty good campaign, outside of a few negative headlines about Holloway’s feet.
Yes you read that correctly, Rebecca Holloway has come under fire for selling feet pics online. It led to what has probably been the best headline to come out of the 2025 elections so far from the New Jersey Globe:
Let me be clear, there is nothing wrong with this. If a consenting adult wants to make money by selling photos of themselves, it’s completely fine. But we did see in Virginia in 2023 that this type of content can have a negative effect on a candidate. It’s probably why the Virginia Democrats lost a Biden+5 district in suburban Richmond after their candidate was discovered to have done this type of work (albeit in a more graphic setting). Back to Holloway, she’s been attacked for doing this by actual sitting politicians. AD-07 Assemblywoman Carol Murphy (D) (who we will be talking about shortly) stated “While I don’t personally condemn Rebecca Holloway’s choices, I do worry that the public nature of her pornographic content risks reinforcing stereotypes that make it harder for all women in public office to be taken seriously.” Fulop, to his credit, has defended Holloway, calling her a “courageous woman” and hoping that voters “consider where these attacks are coming from.” This begs the question, did the Camden County Democrats (who are backing Greenwald & Kane) dig up old feet pics to win a primary?
Whatever the answer to that question is, I think the incumbents pull out the win. They’re spending like crazy to do it (which makes me think that this race is closer than anybody on their side ever hoped), but I think they do it. On a personal note though, I’m kind of hoping Holloway wins just to show that digging up the personal lives of your opponents doesn’t sit right with voters. But, that’s just my opinion.
AD-07 (Northern Burlington County, Harris+29) (D-Held) (DEM Primary):
Democratic incumbents Carol Murphy (the Majority Whip/who you may remember from her unsuccessful run for NJ-03 last year) & Balvir Singh (who was appointed to this seat in January to succeed now-NJ-03 Congressman Herb Conaway) are running for reelection in this deeply Democratic district, but they first have to fend off a Fulop-aligned primary challenge in the form of Bordentown Township Mayor Eric Holliday.
Singh & Murphy are both running on their records in the legislature (tax relief, cutting costs, etc.), with Singh (definitely the more vulnerable of the two incumbents) heavily touting his union endorsements. Holliday, who is Bordentown Township’s first openly LGBTQ+ elected official, is running on a pretty normal left-wing platform of expanding school funding, increasing government transparency, and focusing on aligning New Jersey’s climate policies with the Paris Climate Accords. Outside of Fulop, he’s also been endorsed by the LGBTQ+ Victory Fund, but lags both incumbents in fundraising. The two incumbents should be fine here, as Holliday really hasn’t taken off like some of the other Fulop-aligned candidates, but his status as an elected official (of a township of over 10,000 people) is something to look out for.
AD-08 (Southern Burlington County, Harris+1) (1-1 D/R HELD) (DEM Primary):
This ultra-competitive district was the site of 2023’s biggest upset in New Jersey. That’s when the Democrats were able to flip an Assembly seat here thanks to late-arriving mail-in/provisional votes. Just to put into perspective how shocking of an upset it was, no Democrat had won this district since the Watergate backlash election of 1973! Anyway, the south Jersey Democrats felt emboldened by the win and now looking to flip the other seat. However, they have three candidates running for two spots in November: incumbent Assemblywoman Andrea Katz, school board member Anthony Angelozzi, and Evesham Township Councilman Eddie Freeman. Katz & Angelozzi are backed by the Burlington County Democrats, while Freeman is backed by the Fulop-aligned Democrats For Change.
Katz & Angelozzi are running as normal Democrats, focusing on lowering costs, supporting small businesses, and protecting reproductive healthcare. They’re backed by several unions and the Democratic Assembly Campaign Caucus (which has netted them a ton of money, over $100k to be somewhat exact). Freeman’s running as a standard progressive (with the added Fulop pitch of being really anti-corruption), focusing on lowering the costs of utilities, investing in tourism/protecting the district’s natural resources, and expanding affordable housing programs. Outside of Fulop, he’s endorsed by Moms Demand Action and the Muslim voting group CAIR Action. He’s raised a decent amount of money so far too, which is probably why the same George Norcross-aligned group that I mentioned earlier in the AD-04 rundown is also spending a good amount of money against him here. They want Katz & Angelozzi to win and they’re sending out similar mailers to the ones in AD-04 about Fulop in this district too. Katz pretty much has a spot locked down by virtue of incumbency and I think her slate running mate gets the second spot. It’s going to be close, but I think the machine support is enough to get Angelozzi over the line and onto November in what’s sure to be one of New Jersey’s most hotly contested elections.
AD-09 (Southern Ocean County, Trump+29) (R-Held) (DEM Primary):
Three Democrats are running for two spots in the November election in this deeply Republican district: paralegal Lisa Bennett, League of Women Voters official Rosalee Keech, and nonprofit director Donald Campbell. Bennett is backed by the Ocean County Democratic Party, but doesn’t really have much of a platform outside of promising to be a “voice” against Donald Trump (don’t know if that plays well in a Trump+29 district). Keech and Campbell (who are both backed by Fulop) are running on a more populist platform, promising to use taxpayer dollars “wisely,” and fight human trafficking (a personal issue for Keech, who actually represents the League of Women Voters at the United Nations on the issue). Bennett hasn’t reported raising any money, while the Keech/Campbell slate has mostly relied on Fulop for their little bit of fundraising. Pure shot in the dark here (because neither slate has any major advantage over the other), I’ll go with the Fulop slate to win.
AD-10 (Northern Ocean County, Trump+28) (R-Held) (DEM Primary):
Three Democrats are running for two spots in the November election in this deeply Republican district: environmental lawyer Janine Bauer, South Toms River Democratic Party Chairwoman Debra DiDonato, and Seaside Park Democratic Party Chairman Philip Nufrio. Bauer is backed by the Ocean County Democratic Party & the National Organization for Women, with her platform focusing on making government “simpler,” lowering utilities costs, and protecting the local environment. DiDonato & Nufrio are running on the Fulop-aligned Democrats For Change slate, focusing their campaign on protecting the working class, expanding access to healthcare, and supporting small businesses. Bauer holds a fundraising lead on the two (only because of self-funding), while neither DiDonato nor Nufrio have raised much money. I think Bauer gets a spot in November while the second spot is a total crapshoot. Let’s go with DiDonato thanks to her representing more Democrats as chair than Nufrio does as chair.
AD-13 (Northern Monmouth County, Trump+15) (R-Held) (GOP Primary):
Republican incumbents Gerry Scharfenberger & Vicki Flynn are running for re-election to this solidly Republican seat, but first they have to get through businessman Rich Castaldo in the primary. While both Scharfenberger & Flynn are pretty bog-standard Republicans, Castaldo is running hard to the incumbents’ right, painting himself as a conservative outsider who will stand with President Trump, establish a New Jersey Department of Government Efficiency, and freeze property taxes. He also wants to create a “strategic bitcoin reserve,” so there’s that.
Castaldo, a former speechwriter for now-HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (that still feels weird to say), seems to mostly be focusing his attention on Flynn, calling her a career politician. He’s also attacked her for accepting donations from the New Jersey Education Association (the state teachers union, which is led by Democratic gubernatorial candidate Sean Spiller). He’s raised a good amount of money too, spending a lot of it on internet advertisements promoting himself/attacking Flynn. He’s also backed by former State Assemblywoman Serena DiMaso, who represented this seat until 2021 when she had a falling out with the Monmouth County GOP (who coincidentally replaced her with Flynn). The incumbents should be favored here, but Castaldo’s campaign has been pretty aggressive. Be on the lookout for a potential surprise here.
AD-16 (Central Hunterdon County to South Brunswick Township, Harris+14) (D-Held) (DEM Primary):
A bit of a rarity here, a Democratic primary where the incumbents AREN’T getting primaried by Fulop-backed candidates! Democratic incumbents Roy Freiman & Mitchelle Drulis are facing a challenge from their left by progressive activist Mahmoud Desouky. Freiman & Drulis are mostly running on their record in Trenton, touting gun control bills, a bill to increase the minimum wage to $15/hour, and banning plastic bags. Meanwhile, Desouky is running a generally progressive campaign, focusing on protecting free speech (specifically calling out the Trump Administration for trying to stifle it), capping rent increases, and aggressively fighting climate change. He hasn’t raised much money, but the incumbents are fundraising pretty aggressively, getting over $72,000 from the Democratic Assembly campaign arm this cycle so far, which could just be for November). There’s a few progressive areas in this district where an anti-incumbent wave could manifest (namely Princeton!), but the incumbents should be fine.
AD-17 (Western Middlesex/Eastern Somerset Counties, Harris+32) (D-Held) (DEM Primary):
Democratic incumbents Joe Danielsen & Kevin Egan are running for reelection in this deeply Democratic district, but they face a primary challenge from a Fulop-aligned school board member named Loretta Rivers.
Danielsen & Egan are trying to paint themselves as progressive voices, pointing to their support for gun control, criminal justice reform, and expanding affordable housing. They’ve been endorsed by Congresswoman Bonnie Watson Coleman (D, NJ-12), the Middlesex/Somerset County Democratic Parties, and several local unions. Rivers is running as a standard progressive, focusing on expanding affordable housing, improving government transparency, and defending the working class. Outside of Fulop, she’s backed by the New Jersey branch of the Working Families Party and several other local progressive organizations. Her only real problem is that she hasn’t raised a ton of money, which hasn’t stopped the incumbents from being scared out of their minds. Scared out of their minds fundraising-wise I mean. While Danielsen has been fundraising normally, Egan (who was pretty much given this seat after his dad dropped out in 2023) is fundraising like crazy, spending a ton of money on a major election day GOTV campaign. We’ll see if that pays off on election day, but the opportunity is there for Rivers to beat him. This district is only 26% white and contains a few solidly progressive areas like North Brunswick, but it’s represented by two moderate white guys. I still think the incumbents pull it out, but Rivers unseating Egan wouldn’t shock me.
AD-18 (Central Middlesex County, Harris+10) (D-Held) (DEM Primary):
Democratic incumbents Robert Karabinchak & Sterley Stanley are facing a primary challenge from Italian-American civil rights activist Christopher Binetti in this solidly Democratic district. Binetti’s running an odd campaign, mostly focusing on expanding DEI programs, promoting government transparency, and banning late-term abortion. He’s only raised $1,000 (all from himself) and has a few endorsements from local progressive groups. Much like his failed State Senate run in 2023 (where he lost by 78%), this one’s probably not going to end well for him. Incumbents win easily here.
AD-19 (Eastern Middlesex County, Harris+1) (D-Held) (DEM Primary):
This district has two notable things about it: 1) It’s swung super hard to the right (Biden won it by 19 in 2020) and 2) It’s home to the sitting Assembly Speaker Craig Coughlin. Coughlin, alongside fellow incumbent Yvonne Lopez, are running for reelection, but first they have to fend off a challenge from social worker Michelle Burwell in the primary. Burwell is running to the left of the incumbents, supporting an expansion of affordable housing, expanding funding for education & childcare, and supporting a tax on fossil fuel producers in the state. Burwell really hasn’t raised any money and when you’re facing off against the sitting Assembly Speaker (and his running mate), you kind of need a lot of money to win. The incumbents should be fine here.
AD-20 (Elizabeth area, Harris+24) (D-Held) (DEM Primary):
Democratic incumbent Annette Quijano (who currently serves as Assembly Speaker pro tempore) is running for reelection in this deeply Democratic district, but her fellow incumbent Reginald Atkins is not. This has led to three candidates throwing their hat in the ring (alongside Quijano): Union County Commissioner Sergio Granados, former Elizabeth city official Ed Rodriguez, and community activist Walter Wimbush. Quijano & Granados are running on a slate together, backed by the Union County Democratic Party (and retiring Assemblyman Atkins), while Rodriguez & Wimbush are running on a separate slate together (Union County Democrats Meeting the Moment).
Rodriguez & Wimbush are running a campaign mostly focused on them, well, “meeting the moment.” They’re running because they’re tired of Democrats not fighting back hard enough against President Trump and that they’re the only candidates in this race who can and will fight for marginalized communities. They’ve also attacked Quijano for skipping out on votes and just generally not being a presence in the district. They don’t have a ton of endorsements (outside of a few local progressive groups), but Rodriguez has poured over $200,000 of his own money into this race, allowing him & Wimbush to match the party-backed candidates in that department. As for those party-backed candidates? They’ve run a pretty lowkey campaign, with Quijano mostly just touting her record in Trenton and Granados just kind of riding on her coattails. They’ve gotten some union endorsements, but that’s really about it.
I think the party-backed candidates win here, but I’m not too confident. Poll after poll shows that Democratic voters want candidates who will fight for what they believe in and stand up to Republicans like Trump. I think Rodriguez & Wimbush fit that mold perfectly, but I can’t look past the power of the party backing here. As such, I think Quijano & Granados win, but definitely be on the lookout for an upset here.
AD-27 (Clifton/western Essex County, Harris+31) (D-Held) (DEM Primary):
Democratic incumbents Rosy Bagolie & Alixon Collazos-Gill are running for reelection, but they’re facing two primary opponents in this deeply Democratic district, one backed by Steve Fulop, the other not: businessman Rohit Dave (backed by Fulop) and teacher Blake Michael (not backed by Fulop).
Bagolie & Collazos-Gill are running mostly on their record in Trenton, touting their support for education funding, reproductive rights, and gun control. They’re backed by the Essex County Democrats and have raised a ton of money (mostly by virtue of being the incumbents). Dave’s running as a standard Democrat, but is supplementing his platform of fixing the state’s transit system, investing in education, and cutting costs by heavily focusing on standing up to President Trump and the federal government. He doesn’t really have that much backing outside of Fulop though and his fundraising leaves a bit to be desired. Michael is mostly focused on educational issues, promising to fully fund public schools and establish a universal Pre-K system in the state. He hasn’t raised any money though, so it seems like this is a battle between Dave and the party-backed incumbents. I’d say the incumbents should be favored here, but they’re definitely spending like it's a competitive race, with the pair getting money from the Democratic Assembly campaign arm and even paying for polling. I still think they win, but if one does fall, it’s probably Collazos-Gill.
AD-28 (Southern Essex County, Harris+77) (D-Held) (DEM Primary):
This one’s a bit messy, a pattern we’ll be seeing a lot more of in future districts. Democratic incumbents Garnet Hall & Cleopatra Tucker are running for reelection, but the Essex County Democrats dropped their support for Hall and instead endorsed Newark Democratic Ward Chairman Chigozie Onyema. Hall, undeterred, decided to run on Steve Fulop’s Democrats For Change slate, leading to this three-way primary for two spots on the November ballot.
Onyema’s running as a standard progressive, focusing on expanding affordable housing, investing in public education, and investing in public transportation. He’s also endorsed by the New Jersey branch of the Working Families Party and has raised a lot of money. He hasn’t spent much of it though, which makes me think he’s safe. He’s also not really running a big joint campaign with his fellow party-backed candidate, Cleopatra Tucker. She doesn’t really have any campaign infrastructure up online and hasn’t reported raising any money. This might leave an opening to Hall, who (after initially deciding to retire following the loss of party support) is running a pretty spirited campaign. Outside of Fulop, she’s also endorsed by the New Jersey Education Association and has raised a decent amount of money. As for who makes it to November? It’s a major question mark. Onyema should have a spot locked down, but Tucker’s campaign has been just completely nonexistent and the lack of a coordinated campaign with Onyema isn’t helping her at all. She is a major ally of Newark Mayor/gubernatorial candidate Ras Baraka though, and Baraka should do pretty well here. Combine that with Hall not running with any major institutional support, I think Tucker grabs the second spot alongside Onyema.
AD-31 (Southern Hudson County, Harris+27.5) (D-Held) (DEM Primary):
Ah Hudson County, home to over 700,000 people and home to three of the messiest Democratic legislative primaries in the whole state. We’ll start here in AD-31, where Democratic incumbents Barbara McCann Stamato & William Sampson are running for reelection, but not on the same slate. Instead, Sampson is running with the support of the Hudson County Democratic Party alongside Hudson County Commissioner Jerry Walker. Stamato is running with the support of Steve Fulop alongside Bayonne City Councilwoman Jacqueline Weimmer.
Sampson & Walker are running as vaguely standard Democrats, with the pair promising to fight for higher wages, lower costs of living, and provide tax relief. Outside of the Hudson County Democratic Party, they’re backed by Governor Phil Murphy, several Hudson County officials and a few local unions. Stamato & Weimmer are running a bit to the left of their opponents, supporting an expansion of affordable housing, supporting small businesses, and improving local infrastructure. Outside of Fulop, they’re also backed by a few local progressive organizations (with Stamato in particular being endorsed by the New Jersey branch of the Working Families Party). In terms of finances, Stamato has raised a lot of money, but her running-mate Weimmer really hasn’t. Meanwhile, the Sampson/Walker ticket has mostly been the beneficiaries of nearly $60,000 in support from the Hudson County Democratic Party. This one’s going to be a close one, with the only candidate with I believe no major chance of winning being Weimmer. I’ll go with the Stamato getting one spot and Sampson getting the other, but it’s well and truly a toss-up.
AD-32 (Hoboken/southern Jersey City, Harris+43) (D-Held) (DEM Primary):
Ladies and gentlemen, the most hotly-contested primary in all of New Jersey this year (and yes, that’s including the Democratic primary for Governor). There are six candidates running, so let’s break them down by slate:
Former school board member Crystal Fonseca and Hoboken Public Library Director Jenny Pu- backed by the Hudson County Democratic Party
Incumbent Assemblywoman Jessica Ramirez and Jersey City Councilman Yousef Saleh- backed by Jersey City Mayor/gubernatorial candidate Steve Fulop
Hoboken Mayor/former NJ-08 candidate Ravi Bhalla and former New Jersey Housing and Mortgage Finance Agency official Katie Brennan- running on their own Democrats For The People slate
Got all of that? If not, I don’t blame you, it’s a real mess. Anyway, Fonseca & Pu are running a pretty normal Democratic platform, focusing on stabilizing rent costs, expanding affordable housing, and protecting reproductive rights. Outside of the Hudson County Democrats, they’re backed by a good amount of local elected officials & local unions, while also raising a ridiculous amount of money for this primary. Seriously, over $500,000 raised, with over half of it coming from the Hudson County Democratic Party. They really want to win this race! Ramirez & Saleh are running on a similar platform to the party-backed incumbents, supporting funding public schools, fighting for affordable costs, and improving transportation. Outside of Fulop, they’re backed by a few local progressive organizations. They’ve raised a decent amount of money (moreso thanks to Ramirez), but are obviously getting dwarfed by Fonseca and Pu.
That brings us to our final slate, which is probably the most interesting, Ravi Bhalla & Katie Brennan. Bhalla made a pretty big challenge to current NJ-08 Congressman Robert Menendez in 2024, but lost in the primary to him by 14 points. It did show something though, mostly the fact that he could stand up to party-backed candidates and go almost toe-to-toe with them. So when he launched a campaign for this district earlier this year, it immediately turned some heads. Since he launched his campaign, he’s formed a slate with Katie Brennan (who launched her campaign back in October 2024), with their campaign mostly focusing on expanding affordable housing, improving public school funding, and improving New Jersey’s transportation system. Bhalla’s been endorsed by retiring Assemblyman John Allen, Brennan’s been endorsed by the New Jersey branch of the Working Families Party, and both have been endorsed by a slew of Jersey City progressive officials. Combined, they’ve raised about as much money as the party-backed slate of Fonesca & Pu!
This one’s hard to predict, for obvious reasons. The party-backed slate has the advantage of institutional support/finances, while Steve Fulop does have a pretty good pull around here for his slate. Meanwhile, Bhalla is a popular figure in this district (having beaten Menendez in the 2024 NJ-08 primary here by nearly 20 points) and this district does have a pretty sizable progressive base to elect both him & Brennan. I’m going to say Bhalla gets one spot (thanks to a big win in Hoboken), while Brennan barely edges out a machine-backed candidate for the final spot. It’s going to be super close either way though, you can make an argument for any combination of candidates winning.
AD-33 (Northern Hudson County, Harris+13) (D-Held) (DEM Primary):
This primary requires you to know two people: State Senator/Union City Mayor Brian Stack and former State Senator/North Bergen Mayor Nicholas Sacco. These two men were major power players in Hudson County politics, mostly at each other's throats more often than not. The two were drawn in together following 2021 redistricting, with Sacco deciding to retire in return for Stack supporting one of his candidates for State Assembly. Well, that candidate lost party support thanks to Stack and decided to retire this year, leaving Stack with the opportunity to fill this seat with two of his allies/two of Sacco’s enemies. Sacco isn’t going down lightly though, as he’s teamed with Steve Fulop to recruit candidates of his own:
On the Stack/Hudson County Democratic Party slate: incumbent Assemblyman Gabe Rodriguez and businessman Larry Wainstein
On the Sacco/Fulop slate: former school board member Tony Hector and former Union City Republican Party Chairman Frank Alonso
Yeah, weirdly enough, there is a Republican-turned-Democrat on the Fulop slate. Some articles have referred to him as a Trump supporter (and he only became a Democrat in February of this year, so the timing is weird), but I can’t find anything to back that up. Anyway, Rodriguez & Wainstein are running as standard Democrats, supporting property tax relief, protecting local rent control, and fighting for affordable healthcare. Outside of Stack & the Hudson County Dems, they’re backed by a few local mayors, including West New York Mayor/former Congressman Albio Sires. Hector & Alonso seem to be running exclusively to spite Brian Stack. They’re promising to expose Stack’s “bossism,” corruption, and “lust for political power.” They’re pitching themselves as “independent Democrats” who stand with the voters instead of Stack.
The Stack-backed incumbents have a decent fundraising lead over the Sacco/Fulop-backed slate, though Hector & Alonso have come under fire recently for giving money to a local Youtuber/provocateur/Brian Stack enemy/potential fraudster(?) named Leroy Truth. If there’s anything you need to know about this part of Hudson County, it’s that Brian Stack is the king. He turns out voters at a high level here for his candidates. If you’ve got the Stack endorsement, it’s pretty much a guarantee that you’re going to get a ton of votes because of him. Because of that, I think Rodriguez & Wainstein will win this one.
AD-34 (Eastern Essex County, Harris+40) (D-Held) (DEM Primary):
Democratic incumbents Carmen Morales & Michael Venezia are running for reelection, but first they have to fend off a pair of Fulop-backed candidates in the form of Belleville Township Councilman Frank Velez and former East Orange City Councilwoman/former NJ-10 candidate Brittany Claybrooks.
The incumbents are mostly focused on promoting their accomplishments in Trenton, promoting their efforts to lower costs, supporting workers, and “building a stronger future for all.” They’re backed by the Essex County Democratic Party, Governor Phil Murphy, and several local unions. They’ve also been raking in the cash, with the pair raising almost $300,000 for the campaign (with not a lot of it coming from the Democratic Assembly campaign arm). Velez & Claybrooks are running a standard Democratic campaign, supporting efforts to lower costs, promising to stand up for senior citizens, and invest in public transportation. Outside of Fulop, they’re backed by several local elected officials. Their major problem has just been fundraising, with the pair only raising a few thousand dollars. That’s just simply not enough to compete against a pair of well-funded incumbents, despite the insurgents’ statuses as elected officials. Morales & Venezia are favored here.
AD-35 (Paterson area, Harris+12) (D-Held) (DEM/GOP Primaries):
The city of Paterson (which comprises most of this district) is a very diverse city. It has a large Hispanic population with several large minority groups, primarily consisting of African-Americans and Asian-Americans. The Democratic primary here is pretty representative of that diversity, with four candidates running: incumbent Assemblyman Al Abdelaziz (Palestinian-American) (also was appointed to this seat earlier this year), Passaic County Commissioner Orlando Cruz (Puerto Rican), attorney Kenyatta Stewart (African-American), and former Garfield City Councilman Romi Herrera (Peruvian-American). Abdelaziz & Cruz are backed by the Passaic County Democratic Party, while Herrera is running on Steve Fulop’s slate, and Stewart is running on his own slate.
Abdelaziz and Cruz are running as standard Democrats, promising to fight for education funding, supporting senior citizens, and wanting more property tax relief. Outside of the Passaic County Democrats, they’re also backed by Governor Phil Murphy, several local unions, Paterson Mayor Andre Sayegh, and the New Jersey branch of the Working Families Party (though only for Abdelaziz). Abdelaziz has raised a lot of money, but Cruz has lagged behind him in that category. Stewart is also running as a standard Democrat, but he’s also using his background as an attorney in lower-income areas to prove why he’s the best candidate. He wants to invest more in infrastructure/transportation, supporting violence-prevention programs, and increase funding in public education. He’s backed by Congresswoman LaMonica McIver (D, NJ-10) and two former Mayors of Paterson. He’s also posted some really good fundraising numbers, putting someone like Cruz to shame in that regard. Herrera is running as a progressive Democrat, wanting to lower drug prices, improve public transportation, and reduce incarceration rates in prisons. His fundraising has been mediocre at best, leaving him far behind everyone else in that regard.
Abdelaziz should have a spot locked down by virtue of incumbency and strong fundraising. That means it’s probably going to come down to Cruz & Stewart for the second spot. I’m going to go with Cruz because of strong institutional support for Abdelaziz carrying him across the finish line, but a Stewart win wouldn’t shock me.
The Republican primary is a lot less interesting. Three Republicans are running for two spots in November: Nelvin Mercado-Duran, Rawell Perez-Munoz, and real estate agent Andrew Tisellano. Mercado-Duran & Perez-Munoz are running on a slate backed by the Passaic County Republican Party, while Tisellano is running on a slate all by himself. None of these three candidates have any campaign infrastructure up online and only the party-backed candidates have raised any money (and that’s only $500). I’m going to go with Mercado-Duran & Perez-Munoz to win here, solely based on institutional support.
AD-36 (Passaic/southern Bergen County, Trump+5) (D-Held) (GOP Primary):
While the Republicans targeted this Democratic-leaning district in 2023, it didn’t really end up that well for them. They lost the State Senate race here by 23 points and lost out on both assembly seats by over 6,000 votes. However, something changed here in 2024. That’s because President Trump won this district by five points just four years after Biden won it by 14 points. Now, whether that’s an aberration or a sign of things to come remains to be seen, but we’ll treat this district like it's competitive in the meantime.
Four Republicans are competing for two spots on the November ballot: US Army veterans Chris & Craig Auriemma (both brothers and running on a slate together), former school board member Chris Musto, & Carlstadt Borough Councilwoman Diane DeBiase (who are both running on a slate together backed by the Bergen County GOP). The Auriemmas seem to be running a standard conservative campaign, supporting “parental rights” in education, stopping “overdevelopment,” and lowering toll costs. Musto & DeBiase are running a similar platform, attacking “high-density housing state mandates,” wanting to end the state’s sanctuary state status, and wanting to cut taxes. Neither slate has really raised that much money (both under $1k to be exact), but the Auriemma brothers are backed by gubernatorial candidate Bill Spadea while DeBiase & Musto are backed by the Bergen & Passaic Counties Republicans. Both Auriemmas have name recognition here (having both run for State Senate/Assembly in 2021 & 2023), but Musto & DeBiase’s party support/previous terms in elected office are pretty good marks in their favor. I think Musto & DeBiase win here, but a Team Auriemma win wouldn’t surprise me. Whoever does win though will face a tough matchup in November against Democratic incumbents Gary Schaer & Clinton Calabrese.
AD-37 (Eastern Bergen County, Harris+23) (D-Held) (DEM Primary):
Hudson County doesn’t have all the messy primaries, because we have one here in this deeply Democratic district covering eastern Bergen County! We’ve got another six candidate field with three different slates:
Incumbent Assemblywomen Shama Haider & Ellen Park- backed by the Bergen County Democratic Party
Tenafly Borough Councilman Daniel Park and attorney Tamar Warburg- backed by Steve Fulop and the Democrats For Change slate
Former Teaneck Deputy Mayor Emil “Yitz” Stern and realtor Rosemary Hernandez Carroll- running on their own Together For Bergen LD37 slate
Let’s start with the incumbents, who are running a standard Democratic campaign of standing up to President Trump & Republicans, protecting reproductive & voting rights, and standing up for the district’s Asian community (who comprise over a quarter of the district’s residents). Outside of the Bergen County Dems, they’re also endorsed by several local unions and have raised a ton of money (over $500,000 combined). They’re definitely spooked by their opponents though, as they’ve gone up on TV recently with ads, which is definitely a strange thing to do if you weren’t scared of your opponents, especially in an expensive TV market like New York City.
The Fulop-aligned slate are running as slightly left-wing Democrats, focusing on lowering costs, investing in public education, and improving local transportation. They don’t really have many endorsements outside of Fulop, but Daniel Park is backed by the New Jersey branch of the Working Families Party. They’ve raised a decent amount of money, but nothing compared to the incumbents' war chest. The Stern/Carroll slate are running another pretty nominal Democratic campaign, focusing on lowering costs, supporting small businesses, and defending “religious freedom.” The two have stressed their diversity, with Stern having a long history with the district’s Jewish population and Carroll being the daughter of Dominican immigrants. They’ve mostly attracted support from Teaneck elected officials and have actually raised a good amount of money (but again, dwarfed by the incumbents).
The incumbents should be fine here, but the way they’re spending/raising money doesn’t seem like they are. If they do lose, I think they’d lose to the Fulop-backed slate, but the Stern/Carroll slate shouldn’t be counted out. For now though, advantage to the incumbents.
AD-38 (Central Bergen County, Trump+0.1) (D-Held) (DEM/GOP Primaries):
This Democratic-leaning district was supposed to be a major battleground in 2023, with Republicans hoping to flip both the State Senate seat & at least one State Assembly seat. Those hopes were unfounded, as the Democrats held onto the State Senate seat by 14 points and both State Assembly seats by over 6,000 votes. However, the Republicans did get a gift here in 2024, with President Trump just barely edging out Kamala Harris in this district to take a 0.1% win, a 14-point swing from 2020.
Democratic incumbents Lisa Swain & Chris Tully are running for reelection after surviving said competitive Assembly election in 2023, but they’re facing two Fulop-aligned opponents in the primary: school board president Damali Robinson and attorney Donald Bonomo.
Swain & Tully are mostly running on their record in Trenton, which includes touting passing tax cuts, protecting reproductive rights, and numerous bills to support senior citizens. They’re backed by the Bergen County Democratic Party alongside several local elected officials and unions. They’ve also raised (and spent) a ton of money, including airing ads on TV. Like I said with the last district, if you’re airing ads in a primary in an expensive TV market like New York City, you’re probably seeing some warning signs in your polling. Whether that’s true remains to be seen, but Robinson’s been running a pretty good campaign (while Bonomo has been nonexistent). She’s running as a standard progressive, supporting standing up for unions/workers, advocating for a “fairer” tax system, and supporting several different things to improve government transparency. Outside of Fulop, she’s also been endorsed by the New Jersey branch of the Working Families Party and has raised a decent amount of money.
I think the incumbents should win here, but they’re clearly scared if they’re running TV ads for a primary. I guess that means I could see Robinson snagging a spot from either Swain or Tully, but for now I think the incumbents hold on.
Three Republicans are looking to take two spots in November: Paramus Borough Councilman Barry Kaiser, businessman Barry Wilkes (who are running on a slate together), & real estate agent Gerard Taylor. Kaiser & Taylor don’t really have any campaign infrastructure up, but Wilkes (who ran in 2023) has a website up and is running as a standard conservative. He has attacked Governor Murphy & former President Biden, while praising President Trump for wanting to bring a “new golden age” to America. Both Kaiser & Wilkes have the Bergen County GOP endorsement, while Taylor hasn’t raised any money, so I think Kaiser & Wilkes should be fine here. That’ll send them to a competitive November election against the winners of the Democratic primary.
AD-39 (Northern Bergen County, Trump+2) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP Primaries):
No Democrat has won this district since 1977, but thanks to college-educated/suburban voters becoming more Democratic-friendly, there might be an opportunity for them to flip some seats here later this year. As such, four Democrats are running for two spots in November: former Woodcliff Lake Borough Councilwoman/2013 nominee Donna Abene, former Dumont Borough Councilman/2021 nominee Damon Englese, former Dumont Mayor Andrew LaBruno, and Demarest Borough Councilman David Jiang. Abene & Englese are running with the support of the Bergen County Democratic Party, while LaBruno & Jiang are running on Fulop’s Democrats For Change slate.
Abene & Englese are running as pretty much standard suburban Democrats, calling themselves socially progressive and “fiscally responsible.” Outside of the county party, they’re also backed by several local elected officials, but haven’t really raised any money. LaBruno & Jiang are running as moderates, supporting investing in public safety, stabilizing government spending, and coming out hard against New York City’s congestion pricing (which a lot of suburban north Jersey Democrats absolutely hate). Outside of Fulop, LaBruno is backed by the local police/fire unions (mostly because he used to be a cop). They’ve raised a decent amount of money too, especially when compared to the party-backed candidates raising nothing. I’m going to go with the Fulop-backed slate winning, but the institutional support for Abene & Englese could be enough to get them over the line. Hell, we could even see a split with LaBruno getting a spot alongside one of the party-backed candidates. For now though, I’ll go with LaBruno & Jiang to win.
On the Republican side, incumbent Assemblymen Robert Auth & John Azzariti are running for re-election, but first they have to get through former investment banker Frank Pallotta in the primary.
Pallotta, who ran for NJ-05 in 2020/2022, is running as your standard conservative Republican. He’s pro-”fiscal responsibility,” pro-public safety, and pro-Trump (even touting his 2020 Congressional endorsement from him five years after the election!). He seems to have focused most of his ire on Auth, who he’s attacking for endorsing moderate Republican Jon Bramnick for Governor. Other than that, there’s not too much separating the three men in terms of policy. Pallotta has raised a good amount of money for his campaign and even got the backing of the Mahwah Republicans (who were pretty pressed that Auth & Azzariti claimed their endorsement before they even made any endorsement). However, Auth & Azzariti are taking the challenge very seriously. How seriously? Well, they’ve gone up on cable with ads. A state legislator is up on cable with ads in the primary in the expensive New York City market. That’s how seriously they’re taking it! They’ve both also been endorsed by the Bergen County GOP & several local officials.
Auth & Azzariti should be able to make it out with a win, but Pallotta’s name recognition and fundraising make him a credible candidate. Definitely do not count him out, but I don’t think he makes it.
And that’s all for this debut edition of Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch! Thank you for joining me and don’t forget to stick around for the second edition of today’s newsletter covering tonight’s special elections coming out shortly. Until then, I’ve been Uncrewed/Chris, you can follow me on Twitter @Uncrewed (same on Bluesky!) and don’t forget to stay awesome!