State Legislative Election Watch- 2026 Maryland Primary Preview

Covering all of the state legislative primaries happening in Maryland tomorrow!

STATE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION WATCH- 2026 Maryland Primary Preview

INTRO:

Hello everyone and welcome to Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch! I’m Uncrewed/Chris and this is your one-stop-shop to everything you need to know about state legislative elections from around the country. Tuesday is the last major primary day in America for a good while. Sure, we have Colorado next week, but after that it’s essentially bone dry until August (save for Arizona randomly having their primary in late July). We’ve got three big states to finish off this stretch of primaries: Maryland, Utah, & New York! We’ve already covered Utah and will cover New York tomorrow, so that means we’re onto Maryland! So, without further ado, let’s get into it!

SD-06 (Eastern Baltimore suburbs, Trump+18) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Johnny Ray Salling is facing a primary challenge from dental technician Daniel Eisenhart in this solidly Republican district. Salling doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but he’s been a reliably conservative vote in the Senate. Eisenhart also doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online. That’s because, if you ask Salling, he’s too busy stalking his wife!

(WYPR)

Eisenhart has fired back, accusing Salling of not even living in the district. All well and good, but Eisenhart hasn’t really raised any money for his campaign, so I’m like 99% sure he’s doing this just to get his name out there. Any publicity is good publicity for a campaign that’s practically non-existent. Anyway, Salling should win this one easily.

SD-16 (Bethesda area, Harris+63) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Sara Love was appointed to this deeply Democratic district (after years of representing it in the State House) in June 2024 and now she’s running for a full term. She first has to get through nurse Lou Bartolo in the primary in order to do so. Love is a liberal, touting her efforts in the Senate to improve public education, protect the environment, and fight for reproductive rights. She’s backed by Governor Wes Moore, the Sierra Club and a few unions. Bartolo is running on a similar platform, wanting to protect the environment, expand access to healthcare, and expand gun control. He’s barely raised any money for his campaign, so Love should win this one.

SD-17 (Gaithersburg/Rockville, Harris+54) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Cheryl Kagan is trying to fend off a primary challenge from businessman Philip Cook in this deeply Democratic district. Kagan is a standard Democrat, touting her efforts to stand up to the Trump Administration, support local nonprofits, and improve local education. She also opposed mid-decade redistricting and threatened to defund a nonprofit because they called for a ceasefire in Gaza back in 2023. She’s backed by Governor Moore. Cook is running to Kagan’s left, attacking her for being in Annapolis for over a decade and not getting things like universal pre-K and cheaper housing done. He’s backed by Our Revolution. Cook hasn’t really raised much money for his campaign, so Kagan should win this one, but I’m interested to see how much of the vote Cook gets. It could be a good barometer for a future progressive challenger to Kagan.

SD-23 (Eastern Prince George’s County, Harris+71) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Ron Watson is one of the more conservative Democrats in the Senate caucus. Just in the last session, he voted against bills that would mandate state health insurance covers gender-affirming care and create a fund for abortion-related services. He also wanted Maryland to create a cryptocurrency to help fix its deficit, so we’re dealing with a top mind here. He also attracted a bit of controversy last year for trying to take a job helping lead the Prince George’s County Schools while also keeping this job, which was illegal. Anyway, those things have helped earn him a challenge from progressive activist Raaheela Ahmed in this deeply Democratic district.

Watson is mostly running on his legislative record, touting his bills to cut taxes for working families, improve public safety, and bring money back to the district. He’s backed by Governor Moore and his counterparts in the State House who represent this district. Ahmed is a progressive, wanting to expand funding for public education, fight for single-payer healthcare, and raise the minimum wage to a “living wage.” She’s backed by several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO), Our Revolution, and the Sierra Club. Watson has a financial advantage, but Ahmed has raised a respectable amount. I’ll be bold here and say Ahmed wins. She nearly beat Watson in 2022 (albeit with the presence of a third candidate in the race), only losing by 900 votes. Now she has a ton of union support behind her, while Watson seems to only have the backing of his fellow legislators. I’m definitely not counting out Watson, but yeah, let’s be bold and say Ahmed wins.

SD-24 (Central Prince George’s County, Harris+81) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Joanne Benson retiring, two Democrats are running to replace her in this deeply Democratic district: State Delegate Tiffany Alston and businessman Kevin Ford.

Alston is a standard Democrat, wanting to cut taxes for working families, expand funding for public education, and expand economic development. She also has a bit of a sordid past in the Legislature. She was first elected to the State House in 2010, where she almost killed a bill to legalize same-sex marriage. She then got kicked out of office in 2012 after she was found guilty on misdemeanor theft charges. Six years later, she returned to challenge Benson, but lost. Then four years after that, she won her old job back and has racked up a bit of a conservative voting record (mostly on gun control matters). She’s backed by Prince George’s County Executive Aisha Braveboy and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Ford is running on a similar platform, wanting to expand funding for public education, improve public safety, and expand economic development. He’s backed by outgoing Senator Benson, US Senator Angela Alsobrooks, a few police/fire unions, and the Working Families Party. Not everyday you see the WFP and the police unions on the same side, but here we are. Anyway, Ford has a financial advantage over Alston. I think Ford wins here thanks to better institutional support/fundraising, but Alston does already represent this district in the House, so I’m not counting her out.

SD-26 (Southwestern Prince George’s County, Harris+79) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Anthony Muse is facing a primary challenge from Prince George’s County LGBTQIA+ Liaison Antonio Driver in this deeply Democratic district. Muse doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but he’s been a reliably liberal vote in the legislature. He (much like Ron Watson in SD-23) also had a bit of controversy last year when he tried to keep his job in the Prince George’s County Government on top of his current job as State Senator. He’s backed by Governor Moore. Driver is a standard Democrat, wanting to fight for equity in public education, expand economic/workforce development, and expand access to healthcare. He hasn’t raised any money for his campaign or updated his campaign pages since March though, so Muse should win this one.

SD-27 (Southern Prince George’s/northern Calvert Counties, Harris+22) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Kevin Harris was appointed to this deeply Democratic district back in December 2025 and now he’s running for a full term. He’ll be challenged for said full term by attorney Jason Fowler. Harris doesn’t have much of a campaign platform, but he was a reliably liberal vote in the State House before being appointed to the Senate. He’s backed by Governor Moore, US Senator Alsobrooks, State Comptroller Brooke Lierman, MD-05 Congressman Steny Hoyer, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Fowler is a liberal, wanting to expand funding for public education, expand paid parental leave, and protect the environment. Harris has a wide financial advantage over Fowler. Harris should be the favorite here given his institutional support.

SD-28 (Southern Charles County, Harris+39) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Arthur Ellis running for MD-05, two Democrats are running to replace him in this deeply Democratic district: State Delegate C.T. Wilson and US Air Force veteran Aaron Corbin.

Wilson is a standard Democrat, touting his efforts to expand funding for public education, improve local infrastructure, and crack down on crime. He’s backed by Governor Moore. Corbin doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Wilson should win this one easily.

SD-32 (Northwestern Anne Arundel County, Harris+30) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

In a move that’s become pretty popular this year, Democratic incumbent Pam Beidle decided to retire with just a few hours to go before the filing deadline and endorse State Delegate Mark Chang to replace her (who had just filed the same day). Chang isn’t going to get a free deeply Democratic seat though, as he first has to fend off a challenge from pastor Stephen Tillett tomorrow.

Chang is a liberal, promising to expand funding for public education, protect the environment, and cut healthcare costs. He’s backed by outgoing Senator Beidle, Governor Moore, MD-03 Congresswoman Sarah Elfreth, several state legislators/local elected officials, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Tillett is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand workforce development programs, expand access to healthcare, and expand funding for public education. He’s backed by State Senator Anthony Muse. Chang has a huge financial advantage over Tillett, so that (alongside his institutional support and name recognition) should get him the win.

SD-34 (Southern Harford County, Harris+6) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Mary-Dulany James is facing a primary challenge from US Navy veteran/2024 MD-01 Democratic nominee Blane Miller in this Democratic-leaning district. James is a standard Democrat, focusing on expanding economic development, improving local infrastructure, and improving public safety. She hasn’t updated her Facebook campaign page for the last three years, so she doesn’t really appear to be taking this race seriously. She’s backed by Governor Moore. Miller is running as a moderate, wanting to cut “wasteful” government spending, expand access to affordable healthcare, and protect the local environment. James has a huge financial advantage over Miller and has incumbency on her side, so she should win this one. I’m interested to see how much of the vote Miller gets though, considering he was just on the ballot here two years ago and is the only one really running much of a campaign.

SD-36 (Northern Eastern Shore, Trump+23) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this deeply Republican district: teacher Nivek Johnson and community organizer John Queen. Johnson is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand access to transportation, expand access to affordable housing, and expand economic development. Imaginary points will be deducted from him for using AI slop to illustrate those points though. Queen is running on a similar platform (minus the AI), wanting to improve community cooperation, expand workforce development programs, and expand access to healthcare. Queen has slightly outpaced Johnson in fundraising. I’ll give the edge to Queen, but this is a Democratic primary in a deeply Republican district, so it’s pretty much a pure toss-up.

SD-37 (Central Eastern Shore, Trump+9) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running for the party nod to challenge Republican incumbent Johnny Mautz in this Republican-leaning district: US Army veteran Edmund Barrett and nonprofit director Katie Clendaniel. Barrett is running on a vague platform of leading with “common sense,” working across the aisle, and protecting the environment. He’s backed by State Comptroller Lierman. Clendaniel is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand economic development, improve environmental resiliency, and improve local infrastructure. Both candidates are neck-and-neck in fundraising and both appear to be running equally active campaigns. I’ll give the edge to Barrett here, but it’s really up in the air.

SD-39 (Germantown/Montgomery Village area, Harris+46) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Nancy King has two opponents in tomorrow’s primary for this deeply Democratic district: businessman Amar Mukunda and nonprofit director Destiny Drake West.

King is a standard Democrat, promising to expand funding for public education, stand up to the Trump Administration, and cut costs. She’s also racked up a bit of a conservative streak, constantly voting to give tax breaks to corporations, opposing mid-decade redistricting, and threatening to defund a nonprofit group for calling a ceasefire in Gaza. She’s backed by Governor Moore, State Comptroller Lierman, State Attorney General Anthony Brown, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Mukunda is a progressive, wanting to ban corporate money in politics, support mid-decade redistricting, and fight for universal healthcare. He’s backed by the Sierra Club, Our Revolution, and several other progressive grassroots groups. West is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand economic development, expand access to affordable healthcare, and expand access to affordable housing. King has the financial advantage here, but Mukunda has kept himself competitive in that category (with West lagging behind). I think King wins here thanks to the anti-King vote being split/King having the incumbency advantage, but King is too conservative for this district. If she runs again in 2030 and only faces one opponent, I can very easily see her losing. Hell, even with the split field, I can definitely see Mukunda beating her. For now though, I’ll give the edge to King.

SD-40 (Central Baltimore, Harris+80) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Antonio Hayes is facing a primary challenge from attorney Steven Messmer in this deeply Democratic district. Hayes is a standard Democrat, touting his efforts to increase neighborhood investments, expand funding for public education, and support senior services. He’s backed by Governor Moore and his counterparts in the State House who represent this district. Messmer is a liberal, wanting to eliminate ground rent, fill vacant housing, and expand funding for public education. He’s attacking Hayes for being beholden to corporate PACs and for “disregarding” the community. Messmer hasn’t raised much money for his campaign though and has spent a whopping $13 to unseat Hayes, so Hayes should win this one relatively easily.

SD-41 (Western Baltimore, Harris+65) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Dalya Attar was appointed to this deeply Democratic district in January 2025, narrowly defeating then-fellow State Delegate Malcolm Ruff in the Democratic Party Committee vote. Now, Ruff is challenging Attar for a full term tomorrow!

Attar has mostly shied away from policy positions in her run for a full term, mostly touting her efforts to improve public safety, cut costs, and attract funding for the district. That’s probably because she’s a very conservative Democrat. In the past, she has touted her support for school vouchers, her huge support for Israel, her opposition to higher taxes on the wealthy, and her support for cutting funding for state universities. There’s also this:

(The Baltimore Banner)

Yeah, definitely not the sort of headline you want to see going into a high-profile primary fight. Despite that, she’s still backed by the Baltimore Fraternal Order of Police, so the cops love crime here! She’s also backed by her fellow district incumbents, State Delegates Samuel Rosenberg and Sean Stinnett. Ruff, on the other hand, is a standard Democrat. He wants to improve public safety, expand access to affordable housing, and expand access to affordable healthcare. He’s backed by Governor Moore, MD-07 Congressman Kweisi Mfume, Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott, former State Senator Jill Carter (who preceded Attar in the Senate), several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO), several progressive grassroots groups, and several legislators/local elected officials. It’s not every day you see progressives and the establishment team up like this, that’s how much they both want Attar out! And Attar is clearly flailing going into the home stretch, with her latest attack against Ruff being her most desperate yet. She has dug up a five-year-old Facebook post from him thanking Senator Carter and the State Delegates who represent District 41 (which just so happened to include Attar) for bringing money into the district. To Attar, that’s a solid attack. To everyone else, it’s scraping the bottom of the barrel. Anyway, Ruff has a solid financial advantage over Attar. Combine that with Ruff’s institutional support, I think Ruff unseats Attar tomorrow.

SD-42 (Northern Baltimore/eastern Carroll Counties, Trump+9) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

With Republican incumbent Chris West retiring, both parties have primaries to replace him in this Republican-leaning district. Starting with the Republicans, who have three candidates running: farmer Kevin Ford, firefighter Matt Fox, and Baltimore County Republican Party Executive Director Adam Wood.

Ford is a conservative, promising to cut taxes, expand cooperation with ICE to crack down on crime and illegal immigration, and expand school choice. He’s backed by MD-01 Congressman Andy Harris and State Delegate Nino Mangione (who represents a third of this district in the House and yes I’m ignoring the elephant in the room there). Fox is a standard Republican, wanting to cut regulations on small businesses, expand “parental involvement” in education, and protect farmers. He’s backed by Baltimore County Councilman David Marks and the local firefighters union. Wood is a conservative, promising to cut taxes, stand up with law enforcement, and defend the 2nd Amendment. He’s backed by outgoing Senator West, several local elected officials, several grassroots groups, and the strangest group of former Congresspeople ever (tell me when was the last time you heard about Keith Rothfus and Renee Elmers). Ford has a wide financial advantage over Wood, with Fox lagging behind them both. I think Ford wins here, but I’m not counting out Wood (who does have a bit better institutional support than Ford). Also, if my predictions are right, we’ll probably have two State Senators named Kevin Ford elected this year, which is just hilarious.

On the Democratic side, three candidates are running: teacher Paul Henderson, college professor Paul Konka, and teacher Stephanie Popescu. Henderson is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand access to affordable housing (but not build more housing in rural areas), expand energy production, and expand access to affordable childcare. Konka is a moderate, promising to expand support for teachers, fight for “fiscal accountability” and “responsible budgeting,” and protect the environment. Popescu is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand economic development, cut utility costs, and fight for “fiscal responsibility.” Popescu has a huge financial advantage over Henderson & Konka, who both haven’t raised much money. As such, I think Popescu wins this one.

SD-46 (Southern Baltimore, Harris+62) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Folks, this is Democratic incumbent/State Senate President Bill Ferguson. For the last eight months, he’s been public enemy number one for a good amount of Democrats. Why? Because he didn’t want to gerrymander Maryland’s Congressional map to get an additional Democratic seat to counter Republican redistricting. He was concerned that an 8-0 Democratic map would get overturned by the State Supreme Court and be replaced by a map that could elect two or even three Republicans. People immediately called BS on that claim, to which I kind of agree. Would the Supreme Court have overturned the map? Probably, it’s full of Larry Hogan (the last Republican Governor) appointees and they already overturned the last attempt at an 8-0 map. Would they have replaced it with a worse map for Democrats than the current one? Probably not. Keep in mind that the current Supreme Court is the same one that okayed the current 7-1 Democratic map, so that point of contention was stupid from Ferguson. Governor Moore and several other key Democrats immediately tried calling his bluff, passing an 8-0 Democratic map through the State House. Once again, Ferguson declined to have a vote on the map, pointedly saying that the Senate would not consider redistricting again until 2032 (after the next Census). Being on the majorly unpopular side of a hot-button issue left him vulnerable to a challenge…

Enter Bobby LaPin, an Army veteran who works as a sail tour operator in Baltimore, where he has amassed a solid social media following. LaPin has been vocal in his calling for redistricting and has attacked Ferguson for not doing it alongside claiming that Ferguson is just out of touch. He’s racked up an impressive amount of money for his campaign (nearly $200k), but he has been dwarfed by Ferguson (who has raised over $2 million). To say Ferguson is scared might be an understatement. He’s already re-opened his heart to the idea of redistricting (not for 2026 though, instead probably trying to pull a California/Virginia and get the voters to pass a Democratic gerrymander for 2028) and has broken out the big guns for endorsements. He has US Senators Chris Van Hollen & Angela Alsobrooks, MD-07 Congressman Mfume, Baltimore Mayor Scott, State Attorney General Brown, State Comptroller Lierman, several local elected officials, and a bunch of unions (most notably the AFL-CIO) behind him. There’s one noticeable person missing there, Governor Wes Moore. Moore was a big proponent of an 8-0 Democratic map and was obviously not happy when Ferguson poured cold water on the idea. Now, neither man has endorsed each other for their respective offices.

This one’s a tricky one to predict. On one hand, Ferguson is an institutional powerhouse, has a monetary advantage, and has represented southern Baltimore in the Senate since 2010. On the other hand, Ferguson pissed off a lot of Democrats by refusing to redistrict. There’s a palpable anger there and LaPin has definitely tapped into it. I think Ferguson wins in the end though. That institutional support will be hard to overcome and I think Ferguson’s recent gambit on redistricting will win him back some voters. Definitely do not count out LaPin though, a win from him (which is a solid possibility) would be one of the biggest political earthquakes in Maryland history.

HD-1A (Garrett/southern Alleghany Counties, Trump+50) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Jim Hinebaugh retiring after serving just one term in this deeply Republican district, five Republicans are running to replace him: farmer Andy Adams, pastor Ed Clemons, retired police officer Dan Duggan, political aide Lisa Lowe, and businessman Tim Thomas.

Adams is a right-winger, promising to end sanctuary cities, support law enforcement, and oppose abortion. Clemons is a conservative, promising to cut taxes, stop “green energy mandates,” and defend the 2nd Amendment. He’s backed by the anti-abortion Maryland Right to Life group. Duggan is a standard Republican, promising to expand economic development, support “Mountain Values,” and support law enforcement. Lowe is a moderate, wanting to expand economic development, expand access to affordable housing, and hire more doctors. She also has a bit of a criminal past, being charged with trespassing and disobeying law enforcement in 2023. Thomas is mostly just promising never to raise taxes. Duggan has a wide financial advantage here, with Clemons being the only other candidate to even be slightly competitive with him in that category. I’ll give the edge to Duggan here, but I could see Clemons winning.

HD-2A (Eastern Washington County, Trump+26) (2-0 R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY) (2 ELECTED):

Republican incumbents William Valentine and William Wivell are running for re-election, but they’re facing a primary challenge from community activist Dianna Palmer in this deeply Republican district. Neither Valentine or Wivell have much of a campaign platform, but they’ve both been solidly conservative votes in the legislature. They’re both backed by the Maryland House Republicans, the NRA, & the Maryland Farm Bureau. Palmer is mostly running on opposing data centers and cutting energy costs. The two incumbents have a huge financial advantage over Valentine, so they should be fine here.

HD-2B (Hagerstown, Harris+9) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Matthew Schindler was appointed to this Democratic-leaning district in January 2025. Now, he’s running for a full term, but first has to get through actor Ocewana Baker in the Democratic primary. Schindler doesn’t have much of a campaign platform, but he’s mostly been a reliably liberal vote in the legislature over the last year. He’s backed by Governor Moore and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Baker is mostly focused on improving animal welfare, expanding funding for public education, and building more affordable housing. He hasn’t raised any money for his campaign, so Schindler is the heavy favorite here.

HD-04 (Frederick County, Trump+6) (3-0 R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY) (3 ELECTED):

The Democrats are hoping they can win at least one of the three seats in this Republican-leaning district in November, but first they have to pick their three nominees tomorrow. They’ll choose between four candidates: Frederick County Councilman Jerry Donald, US Army veteran Andrew Duck, businessman Paul Gilligan, and US Army veteran Alleria Stanley.

Donald is mostly running on his record on the Frederick County Council, touting his efforts to expand funding for schools/libraries, improve public health/safety, and clean up the environment. He’s also attacked the current Republican incumbents for not bringing in enough money for the district. He’s backed by MD-06 Congresswoman April McClain Delaney and the Sierra Club. Duck is a progressive, promising to fight price gouging, make college/trade schools free to attend, and raise the minimum wage. Gilligan appears to be mostly running on a NIMBY platform, promising to protect the countryside, preserve small towns, and support family farms. Stanley (who would be Maryland’s first ever openly transgender state legislator) is running on a vague platform of improving community engagement and promising to actually get things done (claiming that the current Republican incumbents haven’t done so). She’s backed by MD-06 Congresswoman Delaney, US Congresswoman Sarah McBride, and the local Indivisible group. Donald & Stanley lead the four in fundraising, with Duck lagging behind them, and Gilligan not really raising much money. I think Donald, Stanley, & Duck win the top three spots.

HD-05 (Western Carroll County, Trump+21) (3-0 R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY) (3 ELECTED):

Republican incumbents April Rose and Chris Tomlinson are running for re-election in this deeply Republican district, but fellow Delegate Chris Bouchat is not (presumably because he wasn’t going to get party support after walking out on the latest legislative session). That has led to two candidates joining Rose & Tomlinson in the primary: political aide Sallie Taylor and Carroll County Board of Education President Steve Whisler.

Rose is a conservative, promising to cut government spending, defend the 2nd Amendment, and crack down on crime. Tomlinson is also a conservative, promising to defend the 2nd Amendment, oppose abortion, and expand government cooperation with ICE. He’s backed by the Carroll County Fraternal Order of Police, the Maryland Farm Bureau, and the NRA. Taylor is a conservative, promising to defend “election integrity,” cut taxes, and oppose abortion. She’s backed by a few local elected officials. Whisler is a right-winger, promising to defend the 2nd Amendment, expand “parental rights” in education, and stop boys from “intruding in girls’ spaces.” He’s backed by Delegate Tomlinson, several right-wing State Delegates, and several local elected officials. Tomlinson leads the four in fundraising, with Whisler and Rose neck-and-neck behind him, and Taylor right behind the two of them. I think Whisler joins both of the incumbents in advancing to November.

HD-06 (Eastern Baltimore suburbs, Trump+18) (3-0 R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY) (3 ELECTED):

Republican incumbents Robin Grammer, Bob Long, and Ric Metzgar are all running for re-election, but they’re being challenged by two opponents in the Republican primary for this solidly Republican district: businessman Bobby Berger and US Marine Corps veteran Henry Ciezkowski. Grammer doesn’t have much of a campaign platform and seems to be more focused on national/statewide issues than this primary, but he’s been a reliably conservative vote in the legislature. He’s backed by MD-01 Congressman Harris, the Maryland Freedom Caucus, the Baltimore Fraternal Order of Police, and the Maryland Farm Bureau. Long is a standard Republican, touting his efforts to cut taxes, expand economic development, and crack down on crime. Metzgar doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but he’s mostly been a conservative vote in the legislature. Berger might have the most insane backstory of any candidate I’ve ever covered. His Facebook page calls himself an “entertainer,” but by entertainer he means this:

(The Washington Post)

Yep, that’s Berger in that photo putting on blackface, which he did for decades as an impersonation of a 1920’s blackface artist named Al Jolson. During the research on this, I also found a news article saying that he was going to perform in blackface to raise money for the Baltimore cops who allegedly killed Freddie Gray back in 2015. A white guy doing blackface to raise money for cops who killed a Black man might be one of the most racist things I can think of. He’s damn proud of it too, just take a look at one his posts defending himself from an attack from Delegate Metzgar:

Outside of defending blackface, he’s mostly just been calling himself an outsider and sharing right-wing propaganda/AI slop. Ciezkowski is a standard Republican, promising to improve public safety, protect the local environment, and cut taxes. Metzgar leads the five in fundraising, with Grammer & Long lagging far behind him, and Ciezkowski/Berger lagging farther behind the three incumbents. I think the three incumbents win here, but damn I’m interested to see how much of the vote Berger gets.

HD-7A (Eastern Baltimore County, Trump+9) (2-0 R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY) (2 ELECTED):

Four Democrats are running for two spots in November in this Republican-leaning district: attorney Tom Baker, community organizer/2022 nominee Ly Xinzhen Brown, businessman Satish Chapagain, and teacher Cleveland Reynolds. Baker has no campaign presence online (outside of a website that says “Coming Soon”) and hasn’t raised any money. Brown is a progressive, wanting to implement universal pre-K, raise the minimum wage to $25/hour, and fight against mass incarceration. Chapagain is running on a vague platform of improving transparency and collaboration. Reynolds has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised money. I’ll give the edge to Brown and Chapagain here.

HD-08 (Eastern Baltimore outskirts, Harris+26) (3-0 D-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES) (3 ELECTED):

Both parties have contested primaries in this deeply Democratic district. Starting with the Democrats, who have five candidates running: State Delegate Harry Bhandari, State Delegate Nick Allen, appointed State Delegate Kim Ross, artist Kumasi Barnett, and community activist Marsha Briley-Savage.

Bhandari is a standard Democrat, focusing on expanding economic development, improving public education, and expanding access to affordable healthcare. He’s backed by Governor Moore, MD-02 Congressman Johnny Olszewski (who Bhandari ran against in 2024), and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Allen is a liberal, touting his efforts to “defend democracy,” protect the LGTBQ+ community, and support veterans. He’s backed by Governor Moore and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Ross doesn’t have much of a campaign platform, but she’s been a reliably liberal vote in the legislature and is backed by Governor Moore. Barnett has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Briley-Savage doesn’t have much of a campaign platform, but she is actively campaigning and has raised a fair amount of money. She’s still lagging hard behind Bhandari, Allen, & Ross though, so I think the three incumbents win here.

On the Republican side, five candidates are running: Baltimore Republican Party official Zulieka Baysmore, conservative activist Brian Campbell, businessman Glen Geelhaar, customer service specialist Steven Riemer, and businesswoman Jacqueline Stevenson. Baysmore is a standard Republican, promising to expand school choice and protect seniors. Campbell doesn’t have much of a campaign presence outside of reposting other Republicans’s posts and signing off with his campaign signature. Geelhaar is a conservative, promising to expand school choice, end “green energy madness,” and stop sanctuary cities. He’s backed by conservative activist/former Congressional candidate Kim Klacik and former State Delegate/2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Dan Cox. He’s also running on a slate with Riemer and Stevenson. Riemer doesn’t have much of a campaign platform, but he’s backed by the Maryland Farm Bureau and the anti-abortion Maryland Right to Life group. Stevenson is a standard Republican, promising to crack down on crime, expand economic development, and expand school choice. Geelhaar has a huge lead in fundraising, with Stevenson and Baysmore being the only two other candidates to raise more than $1. Geelhaar should have a spot locked down alongside Stevenson. So that means Baysmore and Riemer will fight over the last spot, with Riemer I think grabbing the last spot thanks to his association with Geelhaar and Stevenson.

HD-9B (Southern Ellicott City, Harris+40) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Courtney Watson is trying to fend off a challenge from therapist Abdun Matin in the Democratic primary for this deeply Democratic district. Watson doesn’t have much of a campaign platform, but she’s mostly been a reliably liberal vote in the legislature. She’s also backed by Governor Moore and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO)/Democratic groups. Matin is a progressive, wanting to raise teacher salaries, fight for Medicare-for-All, and build more affordable housing. He’s backed by the Democratic Socialists of America and several progressive grassroots groups. Watson has a huge financial advantage over Matin and has incumbency on her side, so she should win here, but I’m interested to see how much of the vote Matin can get. It could be a good barometer for a future progressive challenger to the normie Democrat Watson.

HD-10 (Western Baltimore County, Harris+55) (3-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY) (3 ELECTED):

Democratic incumbents Scott Phillips and Jennifer White Holland are running for re-election in this deeply Democratic district, but fellow incumbent/former State House Speaker Adrienne White is not. White’s retirement has led to four more Democrats joining the primary alongside Phillips and White Holland: former Maryland Department of Public Safety official Michael Brown, school board member Robin Harvey, former State Delegate Jay Jalisi, and conservative activist George Newton.

Phillips, who also leads the Legislative Black Caucus, doesn’t have much of a campaign platform, but he’s been a reliably liberal vote in the legislature. He’s backed by Governor Moore, MD-02 Congressman Olszewski, State Comptroller Lierman, State House Speaker Joseline Pena-Melnyk, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). White Holland is a liberal, promising to protect voting rights, expand access to affordable healthcare, and protect the environment. She’s backed by Governor Moore, several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO) and the Maryland Farm Bureau, because this district surprisingly does have some farm land in it. Brown wants to expand services for seniors, reform the juvenile justice system, and increase “accountability” for police officers. Harvey is a standard Democrat, promising to expand funding for public education, expand access to affordable housing, and expand economic development. She’s running on a slate with Phillips & White Holland and enjoys endorsements from outgoing Delegate Jones, MD-02 Congressman Olszewski, and the AFL-CIO among others. Jalisi is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand funding for public education, expand access to higher education, and improve community safety. He doesn’t have any major backers, but he does have a major detractor in the form of sports betting companies, who have spent nearly half of a million dollars against him here. It’s a fair question to even ask if Newton is a Democrat or not. He was on the Baltimore County Republican Committee until recently and has spent most of the campaign attacking Republicans for not being conservative enough and pushing election conspiracy theories. Phillips and White Holland lead the pack in fundraising, with Jalisi & Harvey fighting it out for third, and Brown & Newton raising no money for their campaigns. I think the two incumbents win here and get the third member of their slate, Harvey, elected alongside them.

HD-11A (Owings Mills area, Harris+60) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Cheryl Pasteur is trying to fend off a primary challenge from nonprofit director Nico Sanders in this deeply Democratic district. Pasteur is mostly focused on criminal justice reform, pointing to several bills that she has introduced in that field. She’s backed by Governor Moore, US Senator Alsobrooks, MD-02 Congressman Olszewski, MD-07 Congressman Mfume, and the Maryland Education Association. Sanders is a liberal, wanting to expand affordable housing, protect renters, and expand access to affordable healthcare. Pasteur has a solid financial advantage and that, combined with institutional support, should get her the win.

HD-12A (Central Howard County, Harris+50) (2-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY) (2 ELECTED):

Democratic incumbents Jessica Feldmark and Terri Hill are running for re-election, but they’re being challenged by attorney Joshua Heard in the Democratic primary for this deeply Democratic district. Feldmark is a standard Democratic, wanting to expand funding for public education, expand economic development, and improve community safety. She’s backed by Governor Moore and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Hill (who also ran for MD-03 in 2024) doesn’t have much of a campaign platform, but she’s been a reliably progressive vote in the legislature. She’s backed by Governor Moore. Heard is a liberal, wanting to expand access to affordable housing, enact a state-run public healthcare option, and raise the minimum wage. Feldmark and Hill have a wide financial advantage over Heard and have incumbency on their side, so they should win this one.

HD-14 (Eastern Montgomery County, Harris+43) (3-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY) (3 ELECTED):

Democratic incumbents Anne Kaiser and Bernice Mireku-North are running for re-election, but fellow State Delegate Pamela Queen is not joining them. Instead, two other Democrats will be joining Kaiser & Mireku-North in the battle for three seats in this deeply Democratic district: diplomat Alicia Contreras-Donello and school board member Matt Post.

Kaiser is a liberal, touting her efforts to protect marginalized groups, cut utility bills, and expand funding for public education. She’s backed by Governor Moore, US Senator Alsobrooks, MD-08 Congressman Jamie Raskin, State House Speaker Pena-Melnyk, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Mireku-North is also touting her liberal voting record, touting her votes to expand funding for childcare, protect tenants’ rights, and help fired federal employees. She’s backed by Governor Moore, US Senator Alsobrooks, MD-08 Congressman Raskin, State House Speaker Pena-Melnyk, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Contreras-Donello is also a liberal, wanting to expand funding for public education, protect marginalized communities, and strengthen consumer protections. She’s backed by the Sierra Club. Post is a progressive, promising to fight back against ICE, cut utility costs, and build more affordable housing. He’s running on a slate with Kaiser & Mireku-North and has the same backers as those two. The Kaiser/Mireku-North/Post slate has dominated in fundraising, but Contreras-Donello has raised a fair amount of money. Despite that, I think that Post and the two incumbents win here.

HD-15 (Western Montgomery County, Harris+44) (3-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY) (3 ELECTED):

Democratic incumbents Linda Foley, David Fraser-Hidalgo, & Lily Qi are running for re-election, but they’re being challenged in the Democratic primary for this deeply Democratic district by ghost candidate Asher Beckwitt. To save some time here, I’ll just say that Beckwitt has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money, so the three incumbents will win here easily.

HD-16 (Bethesda area, Harris+63) (3-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY) (3 ELECTED):

Democratic incumbents Marc Korman, Sarah Wolek, and Teresa Woorman are running for re-election in this deeply Democratic district, but they’re being challenged by nonprofit director Tazeen Ahmad in tomorrow’s primary.

Korman is a liberal, wanting to increase oversight over utilities, defend voting rights, and expand access to affordable healthcare. He’s backed by several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Wolek (who was appointed to this seat in April 2023) is a standard Democrat, promising to improve “social connection,” expand economic development, and protect vulnerable communities. She’s backed by Governor Moore, US Senator Van Hollen, State House Speaker Pena-Melnyk, a bunch of her colleagues in the legislature, Montgomery County Executive Marc Elrich, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Woorman (who was appointed to this seat in August 2024) doesn’t have much of a campaign platform, but she’s backed by Governor Moore, House Speaker Pena-Melnyk, Montgomery County Executive Elrich, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Ahmad is a progressive, promising to fight for paid family/sick leave, expand funding for public education, and fight for “environmental justice.” She’s backed by MD-06 Congresswoman Delaney, several local elected officials, and a few unions. Korman and Wolek lead the pack in fundraising, with Ahmad lagging behind and Woorman lagging further behind. Korman definitely has a spot locked down, with Wolek also seemingly having a spot for her. As for the last spot, I think Woorman narrowly edges out Ahmad, but it could go either way.

HD-17 (Gaithersburg/Rockville, Harris+54) (3-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY) (3 ELECTED):

Democratic incumbents Julie Palakovich Carr, Joe Vogel, and Ryan Spiegel (who was appointed to this seat in July 2023) are running for re-election in this deeply Democratic district, but they’re being challenged by businessman Christopher Reed in the primary. Carr is a liberal, touting her efforts to close corporate tax loopholes, expand funding for public education, and strengthen the social safety net. She’s backed by Governor Moore, her fellow Delegates in the district, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Vogel is a “progressive.” I use the word progressive in quotes because, on some issues, he’s genuinely progressive. He has fought to crack down on ICE, expand oversight on utility companies, and protect tenants’ rights. On the other hand, he’s VERY pro-Israel. He has called for more military funding to Israel, attacked pro-Palestinian protestors for being “antisemitic,” and wanted to remove a Palestinian state government official from her job for calling Israel supporters “genocide sympathizers.” He also ran for MD-06 in 2024 and lost in the primary (though he did come in second). Spiegel is a standard Democrat, touting his efforts to expand economic development, expand access to affordable housing, and improve public safety. He’s backed by Governor Moore, his fellow incumbents here, several local elected officials, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Reed is a standard (or even moderate) Democrat, focusing on cutting costs, attracting more businesses to Maryland, and improving public safety. The three incumbents have a huge financial advantage here, so they should win this one.

HD-18 (Southern Montgomery County, Harris+61) (3-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY) (3 ELECTED):

Democratic incumbents Aaron Kaufman, Emily Shetty, and Jared Solomon are all running for re-election, but they’re being challenged in the primary for this deeply Democratic district by political aide Kate Stein.

Kaufman is a liberal, touting his efforts to defend reproductive rights, protect the environment, and expand access to healthcare. He’s backed by Governor Moore, US Senators Alsobrooks & Van Hollen, State Attorney General Brown, State Comptroller Lierman, State House Speaker Pena-Melnyk, and several unions. Shetty is also a liberal, touting her votes to raise the minimum wage, expand funding for public education, and defend the environment. Solomon is a standard Democrat, touting his efforts to expand access to childcare, expand affordable housing, and expand funding for public education. He also attacked a pro-Palestinian group for calling for a ceasefire in Gaza and opposes mid-decade redistricting. He’s backed by Governor Moore, US Senators Alsobrooks & Van Hollen, State Attorney General Brown, State Comptroller Lierman, State House Speaker Pena-Melnyk, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Stein is a liberal, wanting to expand funding for public education, build more affordable housing, and cut utility costs. She’s backed by a few progressive grassroots groups. The three incumbents have a financial advantage, but Stein has outpaced a few of them in spending. I think the three incumbents win here, but I’m definitely not counting out Stein.

HD-19 (Central Montgomery County, Harris+48) (3-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY) (3 ELECTED):

Democratic incumbents Charlotte Crutchfield and Vaughn Stewart are running for re-election in this deeply Democratic district, but fellow incumbent Bonnie Cullison is retiring. That has led to five Democrats joining Crutchfield and Stewart in the primary: college professor Sunil Dasgupta, businessman Sebastian Johnson, software engineer Gabriel Sorrel, nonprofit official Alec Stone, and Master Electrician Chrisa Tichy.

Crutchfield is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand funding for public education, expand economic development, and expand access to affordable healthcare. She’s backed by several unions and the Sierra Club. Stewart is a progressive, wanting to build more affordable housing, strengthen consumer protection laws, and cut healthcare costs. He’s backed by MD-08 Congressman Raskin. Dasgupta is running on a vague platform of making life more affordable, strengthening public education, and improving public safety. He also has a podcast with nearly 400 episodes (the I Hate Politics podcast) and is backed by the Maryland Education Association. Johnson is a standard Democrat, wanting to build more housing near transportation hubs, expand funding for public education, and improve public safety. He’s backed by several local elected officials. Sorrel is a progressive, promising to protect workers’ rights, fight for diversity over nationalism, and fight back against climate change. Stone is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand access to affordable healthcare, improve public safety, and stand up to the Trump Administration. He’s backed by several local elected officials. Tichy is running on a vague platform of expanding workforce development programs and protecting workers’ rights. She’s backed by several unions.

Stewart leads the seven in fundraising, followed shortly behind by Tichy and Johnson, with Stone & Crutchfield lagging behind those two, and Dasgupta & Sorrel lagging further behind. With Stewart having the progressive lane to himself (mostly thanks to Sorrel not really running a campaign as big as his opponents) and having incumbency, I think he grabs one of the three seats. I’ll give Critchfield one of the other two spots thanks to incumbency, but the third spot will be a hard-fought contest. I’ll give the edge to Tichy thanks to her union support, but I could see Johnson or even Stone grabbing the third spot.

HD-22 (North-central Prince George’s County, Harris+70) (3-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY) (3 ELECTED):

Appointed Democratic incumbent Ashanti Martinez is running for re-election in this deeply Democratic district, but his fellow incumbents Nicole Williams and Anne Healey are not. That has led to three other Democrats joining Martinez in the primary: community organizer Craig Hayes, political aide Molly McKee-Seabrook, and Edmonston Mayor Tracy Gant.

Martinez is a progressive, supporting universal pre-K, wanting to advance green transit systems, and promising to protect immigrant families from ICE. He has also been a vocal opponent of the Israeli invasion of Palestine and a strong proponent of universal healthcare. He’s backed by Governor Moore, State House Speaker Pena-Melnyk, State Comptroller Lierman, Prince George’s County Executive Aisha Braveboy, a bunch of local elected officials, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). He’s running on a slate with McKee-Seabrook and Gant. Hayes is a progressive, promising to stand up to ICE, raise the minimum wage to $25/hour, and fight for Medicare-for-All. He’s backed by several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO) and progressive grassroots groups. McKee-Seabrook is a liberal, promising to expand access to childcare, improve public transportation, and protect the local environment. She’s backed by Governor Moore, State Comptroller Lierman, several local elected officials, and the Maryland Education Association. Gant is a liberal, wanting to improve government transparency, fight for criminal justice reform, and expand access to childcare. She’s backed by Governor Moore, State Comptroller Lierman, and several local elected officials. McKee-Seabrook leads the four in fundraising, with Martinez and Hayes lagging slightly behind and Gant lagging harder behind. I think Martinez has a spot locked down by virtue of incumbency/institutional support, with McKee-Seabrook getting the second spot thanks to her financial/institutional support. For the final spot, I’ll go bold and say Hayes gets it. He has easily outpaced Gant in fundraising and has very good union support to counter Gant’s establishment support.

HD-23 (Eastern Prince George’s County, Harris+71) (3-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY) (3 ELECTED):

Democratic incumbents Marvin Holmes and Kym Taylor are running for re-election, but fellow incumbent Adrian Boafo is not (instead running for MD-05 to succeed Steny Hoyer). That has caused six other Democrats to join the primary in this deeply Democratic district alongside Holmes & Taylor: businessman Michael Bance, businessman Tambei Chiawah, Prince George’s County Police Accountability Board Vice President Keenon James, pastor Kris Natesan, businesswoman Le Shaun Quander-Mosley, and teacher Rebecca Stallworth.

Holmes hasn’t updated his campaign page since 2022, but he’s been a reliably liberal vote in the legislature. Taylor is a standard Democrat, touting her efforts to improve senior services, improve local education, and expand economic development. She’s backed by the AFL-CIO and the Maryland Education Association. Bance is also a standard Democrat, promising to expand economic development, support farmers, and expand funding for youth empowerment programs. Chaiwah is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand economic development, crack down on gun crime, and expand funding for public education. He’s backed by a few local elected officials. James is a standard Democrat, wanting to improve public safety, improve local education, and expand access to healthcare. He’s running on a slate with Holmes & Taylor and is backed by Governor Moore. Natesan is a standard Democrat, promising to expand economic development, cut costs, and improve senior services. Quander-Mosley is a liberal, wanting to expand access to healthcare (calling it a human right), expand funding for public education, and cut rental costs. Stallworth is also a liberal, wanting to expand funding for public education, raise the minimum wage to a “living wage,” and cut property taxes for seniors.

Taylor leads the group in fundraising by a wide margin, with Holmes, Natesan, Chiawah, & James all bunched up for second place, and Bance, Quander-Mosley, & Stallworth not raising much money. I think the Holmes/Taylor/James slate wins here.

HD-24 (Central Prince George’s County, Harris+81) (3-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY) (3 ELECTED):

Democratic incumbents Andrea Harrison and Derrick Coley are running for re-election in this deeply Democratic district, but fellow incumbent Tiffany Alston is retiring in order to run for State Senate. That has led to five other Democrats running in tomorrow’s primary alongside Harrison & Coley: community activist Crystal Carpenter, attorney Stanford Fraser, attorney Bobby Henry, businessman Jordan McFarland, and businesswoman LaTasha Ward.

Harrison is a standard Democrat, touting her efforts to expand economic development, expand access to healthcare, and expand funding for public education. She’s backed by Governor Moore, US Senator Alsobrooks, and several unions. Coley (who was just appointed to the State House in January) doesn’t have much of a platform, but he’s backed by Governor Moore, State House Speaker Pena-Melnyk, Prince George’s County Executive Braveboy, and several police unions. Carpenter is running on a vague platform of making the community “stronger and safer.” Fraser is a liberal, wanting to expand funding for public education, cut utility costs, and close corporate tax loopholes. He’s backed by the Sierra Club and several unions. Henry is a moderate, wanting to expand economic development, increase funding for law enforcement, and raise teacher salaries. McFarland has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Ward is a progressive, wanting to expand funding for public education, expand funding for community policing efforts, and fight for rent control. She’s backed by US Senator Alsobrooks.

Harrison has a huge advantage in fundraising, with Fraser being the only other candidate to even come close to her haul. Behind those two, Coley, Henry, & Carpenter are slugging it out for third place, with Ward lagging behind those three. I think Harrison has a spot locked down thanks to incumbency/institutional support. For the last two spots, I think they go to Coley (by virtue of institutional support) and Fraser (thanks to good fundraising and union support).

HD-25 (South-central Prince George’s County, Harris+85) (3-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY) (3 ELECTED):

Democratic incumbents Karen Toles, Kent Roberson, and Denise Roberts are all running for re-election, but they’re being challenged by four opponents in the primary for this deeply Democratic district: former State Delegate Angela Angel, real estate agent Antoine Thompson, District Heights City Commissioner Anthony Tilghman, and nonprofit director Joseph Tolbert.

Toles doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but she’s been a reliably liberal vote in the legislature. Roberson (who was appointed to this seat in May 2023) doesn’t have much of a campaign platform, but he’s been a reliably liberal vote in the House. Roberts (who was appointed to this seat in January 2024) is a standard Democrat, promising to support small businesses, expand funding for public education, and expand access to healthcare. She’s backed by the Maryland Education Association. Angel is mostly running on her old legislative record, saying that the district should elect a “proven” leader. Thompson is an interesting figure, as he used to serve in the New York State Senate! He represented a district in Buffalo from 2006 to 2010 before he was swept out of power in the 2010 Tea Party wave. He moved to Prince George’s County a few years later and now he wants to get back into a state legislature. He’s running as a liberal, promising to cap utility hikes, expand funding for public education, and expand economic development. He’s backed by several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Tilghman is a standard Democrat, promising to improve community policing efforts, improve school safety, and expand economic development. He’s backed by a few unions. Finally, Tolbert probably has the most interesting story of the seven. He served almost 20 years in prison after being arrested in a drive-by-shooting at the age of 17. A few years after he was released for that crime, he was arrested on drug trafficking charges. During his stint in prison for that, he took several legal classes and decided he wanted to become a legislator. He’s focused on improving the ability for prisoners to reenter society and improving public safety.

Toles leads the pack in fundraising, with Thompson and Roberson lagging behind him. Roberts and Tilghman are lagging behind those two, with Tolbert & Angel not raising much money. I think Toles gets one of the three seats. The other two are a bit more up-in-the-air. I’ll go with Thompson to get one thanks to his union support and one of either Roberts or Roberson to get the other (I’ll go with Roberts).

HD-26 (Southwestern Prince George’s County, Harris+79) (3-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY) (3 ELECTED):

Democratic incumbents Veronica Turner, Kriselda Valderrama, and Jamila Woods are all running for re-election in this deeply Democratic district, but they’ll be challenged in the primary by community activist Reginald Martin and realtor Dani Moore-King.

Turner doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but she’s been a reliably liberal vote in the legislature. Valderrama hasn’t updated any of her campaign pages since 2022, but she’s been a solidly liberal vote in the House. Woods is a liberal, touting her efforts to improve public health equity, raise the minimum wage, and expand funding for public education. She’s backed by Governor Moore, State Comptroller Lierman, and her fellow incumbents here. Martin, who also goes by “Coach,” is a standard Democrat. He wants to cut costs, expand economic development, and expand funding for public education. Moore-King is a liberal, wanting to improve community policing efforts, expand access to healthcare, and expand funding for public education. She’s backed by Delegate Turner and a few local elected officials. Valderrama leads the pack in fundraising, followed by Moore-King. Woods lags far behind those two, with Turner lagging behind her and Martin not raising much money. I think Turner & Valderrama’s incumbency gets them the top two spots. I’ll be bold and say Moore-King beats out Woods here for the third spot, mostly thanks to her financial advantage and much more active-looking campaign. I’m not counting out Woods though, as her institutional support can definitely get her the win.

HD-27A (Northern Charles/southern Prince George’s Counties, Harris+60) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Darrell Odom was appointed to this deeply Democratic district in January and now he has to face three opponents in the primary if he wants to keep his new job for a full term: school board member Yonelle Moore Lee, former Capitol Heights Mayor Shawn Maldon, and University System of Maryland Student Council Vice President Clifton Crosby.

Odom is a standard Democrat, wanting to improve local traffic congestion, expand funding for public education, and support veterans. He’s backed by Governor Moore. Lee is a liberal, wanting to improve health equity, expand workforce development programs, and expand access to affordable housing (which she calls a human right). She’s backed by several unions and is heavily touting that she’s the only woman running in the primary. Maldon is a standard Democrat, wanting to improve accessibility, cut property taxes, and improve public safety. Crosby is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand funding for public education, improve traffic congestion, and expand economic development. He’s backed by several police/fire unions. Lee leads the pack in fundraising, with Odom & Crosby lagging behind her and Maldon lagging even further behind. I think Lee wins this one here, as Odom hasn’t been in office long enough to get much incumbency and Lee seems to be running the best-funded/endorsed campaign.

HD-27B (Southeastern Prince George’s/northern Calvert Counties, Harris+26.5) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Jeffrie Long is trying to fend off a primary challenge from former State Delegate Rachel Jones in this deeply Democratic district. Long is a moderate, wanting to improve local education, expand access to rural healthcare, and support senior services. He’s backed by Governor Moore, US Senator Alsobrooks, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Jones is a liberal, wanting to expand funding for public education, protect the environment, and defend marginalized groups. Long is easily outpacing Jones in fundraising and already beat her by a 54-40 margin in 2022, so I think Long should win this one.

HD-27C (Central Calvert County, Trump+15) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this solidly Republican district: businesswoman Rocio Mercado-Garcia and teacher Jennifer Davidson. Mercado-Garcia has no campaign presence and hasn’t raised any money for her campaign. Davidson is a liberal, wanting to cut costs, expand teacher salaries, and oppose data centers. Given that Davidson seems to be the only candidate actively running a campaign here, I’ll give her the edge.

HD-28 (Southern Charles County, Harris+28) (3-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY) (3 ELECTED):

Democratic incumbents Debra Davis and Edith Patterson are running for re-election, but fellow incumbent CT Wilson is not (instead running for State Senate). As such, four other Democrats are running alongside Davis & Patterson: Charles County State’s Attorney Office official Abena Affum-McAllister, community activist John Jones, progressive activist Evan Smith, and community activist Tarinna Terrell.

Davis doesn’t have much of a campaign platform, but she’s backed by Governor Moore and several unions. Patterson is a liberal, touting her efforts to cut utility costs and crack down on price gouging. She’s backed by Governor Moore and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Affum-McAllister is a standard Democrat, promising to support caregivers, expand funding for public education, and improve health equity. She’s backed by US Senator Alsobrooks, MD-05 Congressman Hoyer, outgoing Delegate Wilson, several local elected officials, and several unions. Jones doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online outside of an Instagram post where he explicitly says he does not want donations to his campaign when prices are so high. Smith is a progressive, focusing on cutting costs, expanding transit, and abolishing ICE. He’s backed by several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO) and the Democratic Socialists of America. Terrell wants to bring “humanistic leadership” to Annapolis, but she hasn’t raised any money for her campaign. Affum-McCallister & Davis lead the six in fundraising, with Patterson and Smith lagging behind them. I think the two incumbents win here alongside Affum-McCallister, but I’m definitely not counting out Smith. The fact that he’s been able to get that strong of union support as a DSA-backed candidate is pretty impressive, but I think Affum-McCallister’s institutional support will just be enough to get her over the finish line here.

HD-29B (Eastern St. Mary’s/southern Calvert Counties, Harris+11) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Brian Crosby retiring, two Democrats are running to replace him in this solidly Democratic district: teacher Adrianne Mathis and community activist Kris McDonald.

Mathis is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand funding for public education, expand economic development, and improve local infrastructure. She’s backed by Governor Moore and a few unions. McDonald doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but he’s backed by the Stand For Health Freedom group. That’s an anti-vax “medical freedom” group, so that should say a lot about McDonald. Anyway, Mathis has a huge financial advantage over McDonald and has way better institutional support, so she’s the heavy favorite.

HD-29C (Central St. Mary’s County, Trump+14) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

Both parties have contested primaries in this solidly Republican district. Starting with the Republican primary, where Republican incumbent Todd Morgan is facing off against businessman James McQueen. Morgan is a standard Republican, promising to support small businesses, cut taxes, and support law enforcement. He’s backed by the NRA and the Maryland Farm Bureau. McQueen heavily opposes data centers, wants to improve government transparency, and promises to stop high-density housing. He calls himself “Lightning McQueen”

(Kachow!)

Morgan has a huge financial advantage over McQueen so unless McQueen gets a ton of Cars fans to vote for him, then Morgan should win this one.

On the Democratic side, four candidates are running: realtor JW Abney, engineer Mike Fechtmann, game developer Eric Immler, and paralegal Shaara Watts. Abney is a standard Democrat, focusing on expanding economic development, cutting housing costs, and expanding access to the trades. Fechtmann is a liberal, wanting to protect the environment, expand access to affordable healthcare, and stop data centers. Immler doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online. Watts is a liberal, promising to cut red tape for businesses, raise the minimum wage, and stop data centers. Abney leads the four in fundraising, but no candidate has raised much money. Pure toss-up here, but I’ll go with Watts to win.

HD-30A (Annapolis area, Harris+31) (2-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY) (2 ELECTED):

Democratic incumbents Dylan Behler and Dana Jones are running for re-election, but they’re facing a primary challenge in this deeply Democratic district from businessman Bradley O’Neal. Behler is a standard Democrat, wanting to cut energy costs, expand funding for public education, and improve government transparency. He’s backed by Governor Moore, MD-03 Congresswoman Elfreth, State Comptroller Lierman, several local elected officials, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Jones is mostly running on her legislative record, touting her votes to stop book bans and bring more money to the district. She’s backed by Governor Moore and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). O’Neal, who also works as a beekeeper, is focused on protecting Maryland’s honeybee population, improving senior services, and improving community engagement. The incumbents have a huge financial advantage over O’Neal, so they should win easily.

HD-30B (Southern Anne Arundel County, Trump+8) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this Republican-leaning district: nonprofit director Matt Johnston and technical consultant Blake Wintermute. Johnston is a liberal, promising to get money out of politics, support small businesses, and protect the environment. He’s backed by the Sierra Club and the Maryland Education Association. Wintermute wants to build more housing, expand transit options, and eliminate the sales tax/income taxes on those making under $80k/year. Johnston has a huge financial advantage over Wintermute, so he should win this one.

HD-32 (Northwestern Anne Arundel County, Harris+30) (3-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY) (3 ELECTED):

Democratic incumbents Sandy Bartlett and Mike Rogers are running for re-election, but fellow incumbent Mark Chang isn’t (he’s running for State Senate). That has led two Democrats to join Bartlett & Rogers in the primary: political aide Spencer Dixon and businessman Steven Thomas.

Bartlett is a liberal, touting her efforts to fight for criminal justice reform, fight discrimination in housing, and expand funding for public education. She’s backed by Governor Moore and the Maryland Education Association. Rogers doesn’t have much of a campaign platform, but he’s been a solidly liberal vote in the legislature. He’s backed by Governor Moore and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Dixon is a liberal, focusing on cutting energy costs, standing up to the Trump Administration, and building more affordable housing. He’s backed by outgoing Delegate Chang, several local elected officials, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Thomas is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand access to mental healthcare, improve public safety, and improve community engagement. He’s backed by Governor Moore and the Fraternal Order of Police. Rogers has a wide financial advantage over the other three, with Bartlett, Dixon, & Thomas fighting over the second and third spots. I think Bartlett & Rogers have spots locked down by virtue of incumbency. As for the third spot, it’ll be a close race between Dixon & Thomas, but I think Dixon’s more substantial institutional support will be enough to get him the win.

HD-33A (Odenton, Harris+35) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Andrew Pruski is facing a primary challenge from ghost candidate Connor Roche in this deeply Democratic district. As Roche has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money, Pruski should win this one easily.

HD-34B (Bel Air, Trump+10) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Susan McComas retiring from this solidly Republican district, two Republicans are running to replace her: businesswoman Sheariah Yousefi and Bel Air Town Commissioner Jake Taylor.

Yousefi is a conservative, promising to defend “Faith, Family, & Freedom,” cut taxes, and support law enforcement. She’s backed by a few local elected officials. Taylor is a standard Republican, wanting to expand energy production, crack down on crime, and cut taxes. He’s backed by outgoing Delegate McComas, MD-01 Congressman Harris, and former Governor Bob Ehrlich. Yousefi has a solid financial advantage over Taylor, but Taylor just has such great institutional support that I would be remiss not to call him the favorite.

HD-35A (Northern Harford County, Trump+35) (2-0 R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY) (2 ELECTED):

Republican incumbents Mike Griffith and Teresa Reilly are running for re-election, but they’ll be joined in the Republican primary by radio show host Michelle Christman. Griffith is a conservative, promising to cut taxes, defend the 2nd Amendment, and crack down on crime. He’s backed by the NRA, the Fraternal Order of Police, and the Maryland Farm Bureau. Reilly hasn’t updated her website since 2018, but she’s running on a slate with Griffith and has an equally conservative voting record as he does. Christman doesn’t have much of a campaign platform, but at least she’s campaigning. The two incumbents have a wide financial advantage here, so they should be fine.

HD-35B (Western Cecil County, Trump+39) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Kevin Hornberger is trying to fend off two opponents in the Republican primary for this deeply Republican district: nonprofit official Erica Berge and police officer Derek Howell.

Hornberger is mostly running on his legislative record, touting his votes to cut taxes, support small businesses, and support law enforcement. He’s backed by former Governor Ehrlich, the anti-abortion Maryland Right to Life group, and Maryland’s largest police/fire unions. He’s been spending the final stretch of campaigning attacking the Maryland Freedom Caucus for being a “dark money group” because they’re opposing him. Berge is a standard Republican, wanting to cut taxes, improve local infrastructure, and support law enforcement. She’s backed by the Cecil County branches of the Maryland Farm Bureau and the Maryland Education Association. Howell calls himself a “constitutional conservative” who will fight “clean energy mandates,” defend farmers, and cut “wasteful” government spending. He’s backed by MD-01 Congressman Harris. Hornberger and Berge are neck-and-neck in fundraising, with Howell close behind them. I actually think Howell wins this one. He seems to have the grassroots behind him (which is big in a very Republican district like this one) and the establishment vote looks like it’s splitting between Hornberger and Berge.

HD-38A (Southern Eastern Shore, Trump+16) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With appointed Republican incumbent Kevin Anderson not running for a full term in this solidly Republican district, two Republicans are running to replace him: businessman Tim Howlett and Pocomoke City Councilman C.L. Marshall.

Howlett is a standard Republican, promising to support small businesses, improve public safety, and lead with “integrity.” Marshall is just vaguely promising to “Put the Eastern Shore First.” That’s probably a winning campaign message here though, as Howlett has raised no money for his campaign. As such, Marshall should win this one.

HD-39 (Germantown/Montgomery Village area, Harris+46) (3-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY) (3 ELECTED):

Democratic incumbent Gabriel Acevero has never really had the best relationship with his fellow incumbents here Lesley Lopez and Greg Wims. Mostly because Acevero is way to the left of them, politically speaking. He unseated an incumbent in 2018 (who ran with Lopez and Wims’s predecessor) and then the other two incumbents decided to run with a new candidate in 2022, potentially leaving Acevero to fade on his own. That didn’t happen though as Acevero came in second in the 2022 primary for three seats, outpacing his “replacement” by almost 3,000 votes. Now, the Lopez/Wims team is trying to leave Acevero out in the cold again, running on a slate with Gaithersburg City Councilman Rob Wu. Also running is Montgomery County Police Accountability Board member George Lluberes, who is unaffiliated with either the establishment slate or Acevero.

Acevero is a progressive, wanting to expand access to healthcare (which he calls a human right), protect tenant rights, and fight for “environmental justice.” He’s backed by Governor Moore, State House Speaker Pena-Melnyk, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). He has attracted a bit of controversy in the last few days as he was accused of assault by a union president last Friday. Allegedly, the president of the local UFCW branch (which Acevero used to work as a union rep at), Gino Renne, was accusing Acevero of several “shortcomings” in his job performance. In response, Acevero accused Renne of being corrupt and started pointing a finger in Renne’s face. Renne said that’s when he had to “fire” Acevero, which Acevero said is when Renne swung at him. Acevero swung back and both men ended up knocking over a few tables. Both men have said they plan to file assault charges against each other. This shouldn’t affect anything, but politics will be wild sometimes! Lopez (who ran for MD-06 in 2024 and lost in the primary) doesn’t have much of a campaign platform, but she’s been a reliably liberal vote in the legislature and enjoys the support of Governor Moore and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Wims (who was appointed to this seat in May 2023) is a liberal, supporting expanding funding for public education, raising the minimum wage for teachers to $25/hour, and expanding access to affordable housing (which he calls a human right). He’s backed by Governor Moore, US Senator Van Hollen, State House Speaker Pena-Melnyk, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Wu is a standard Democrat, focusing on improving public safety, protecting the environment, and continuing the district’s “balanced growth.” He’s backed by Lopez & Wims (as discussed previously) and, wouldn’t you guess it, the same union that tried to fight Acevero, the UFCW! Lluberes is a standard Democrat, wanting to improve “transparency” in education, expand access to affordable housing, and protect the immigrant community. He seems to be running a campaign catered to the Hispanic community here, which isn’t a bad call considering the district is almost 30% Hispanic (making it the biggest plurality group in the district).

Wims has a huge advantage in fundraising, with Acevero, Lopez, & Wims battling it out behind him, and Lluberes lagging behind those three. I think Acevero has a spot locked down given that he’s beaten stronger opponents in the past than Wu and that his fellow two incumbents (Lopez & Wims) get the other two spots. I could see a scenario where Wims loses his seat to either Wu (by virtue of being a local elected official) or Lluberes (by virtue of winning big among Hispanics), but for now I think all three incumbents win here.

HD-40 (Central Baltimore, Harris+80) (3-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY) (3 ELECTED):

Democratic incumbents Marlon Amprey, Frank Conaway, and Melissa Wells are all running for re-election in this deeply Democratic district, but Amprey & Wells are running on a slate with a new candidate, community activist Tiffany Welch. Why did they dump Conaway? Probably because Conaway voted with Republicans earlier this year against restrictions on cooperating with federal immigration officers. Conaway said that it would put local sheriffs/cops in a bind, but yeah voting to not oppose ICE in 2026 is not going to be a good look for a Democrat. Joining the four aforementioned candidates in tomorrow’s primary are: US Navy veteran Diante Edwards, community activist Anderson Jean, community activist Crystal Jackson Parker, and ghost candidate Kevin Legacy.

Amprey is a liberal, wanting to crack down on gun crime, expand funding for public education, and expand public transit. He’s backed by Governor Moore. Conaway doesn’t really have much of a campaign presence online. In fact, he’s really only shown up online to defend his votes against immigration reform, saying this absolutely insane thing about it:

(The Baltimore Banner)

You might be saying, “Chris, this an absolutely insane thing to say,” and I’ll agree with you on that and also say that Conaway’s dad (who was a very notable Baltimore politician for almost 40 years) did switch parties from Democrat to Republican right before he died, so it runs in the family. Like Jay Jalisi in HD-10, Conaway has also been the target of sports betting groups, with nearly half of a million dollars being spent to attack him. He is backed by Baltimore State’s Attorney Ivan Bates. Wells doesn’t have much of a campaign platform, but she’s been a reliably liberal vote in the legislature. She’s backed by Governor Moore, US Senator Alsobrooks, MD-07 Congressman Mfume, Baltimore Mayor Scott, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Welch is a liberal, wanting to improve consumer protection from utilities, improve community health, and expand economic development. She’s backed by Governor Moore, US Senator Alsobrooks, Baltimore Mayor Scott, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Edwards is a liberal, focusing on cutting costs, expanding funding for public education, and expanding access to transit. He’s backed by the Maryland branch of Andrew Yang’s Forward Party. Jean is a standard Democrat, wanting to improve senior services, cut energy costs, and increase “financial incentives” for police officers to live in Baltimore. Jackson is a progressive, promising to raise the minimum wage to a “Living Wage,” expand access to healthcare, and fight for rent stabilization. She’s backed by the Forward Party. Legacy has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money.

Amprey, Wells, & Welch have a huge advantage in fundraising, with none of their opponents cracking more than $20k. In fact, Conaway himself has barely raised $3k for his campaign, almost entirely relying on name recognition to get him a seat. If he’s getting blasted by outside spending like he has been, I don’t think that strategy is really going to work here. As such, I think Amprey, Wells, & Welch win here.

HD-41 (Western Baltimore, Harris+65) (3-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY) (3 ELECTED):

Democratic incumbents Samuel Rosenberg and Sean Stinnett are running for re-election, but fellow incumbent Malcolm Ruff isn’t (instead running for State Senate). That means that six other Democrats are running in the primary for this deeply Democratic district alongside Rosenberg and Stinnett: community activist Shannice Anderson, community activist Chezia Cager, businessman Matt Menter, businessman Adrian Muldrow, nonprofit director Ryan Turner, and community activist Reuven Amos.

Rosenberg, who has represented this district since 1982, doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but he’s mostly been a reliably liberal vote in the legislature (outside of being a massive Israel supporter). He’s backed by Governor Moore. Stinnett (who was appointed to this seat in March 2025) doesn’t have much of a campaign platform, but he’s been a reliably liberal vote in the legislature in his short time there. He’s backed by Governor Moore, MD-07 Congressman Mfume, State House Speaker Pena-Melnyk, Baltimore Mayor Scott, several local elected officials, and several unions. Anderson is running on a vague platform of supporting the community. Cager is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand funding for public education, expand economic development, and expand access to healthcare. She’s backed by outgoing Delegate Ruff, MD-07 Congressman Mfume, and former State Senator Jill Carter. Menter is a progressive, promising to defend the LGBTQ+ community, protect the local environment, and raise the minimum wage to a “living wage.” He’s backed by the Sierra Club and the Maryland branch of the Forward Party. Muldrow is a standard Democrat, wanting to improve public safety, protect senior services, and expand youth empowerment programs. He’s backed by the Maryland Farm Bureau, because the west side of Baltimore is very rural (does the Farm Bureau oversee urban farming?). Turner is a standard Democrat, focusing on cutting costs, improving local education, and improving public safety. He’s backed by Governor Moore and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Amos is a standard Democrat, promising to improve community wellness, expand funding for public education, and improve housing security.

Rosenberg has a huge lead in fundraising, with Stinnett, Turner, & Cager all fighting it out behind him, and no other candidate even coming close to the top four. Rosenberg has a spot locked down by virtue of incumbency and he should be joined by Stinnett thanks to his institutional support. The final spot will have an interesting battle between Cage & Turner, but I think Turner’s union support ultimately gets him the win.

HD-42A (Northern Baltimore County, Trump+10) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Nino Mangione is retiring from this solidly Republican district in order to run for Baltimore County Council. Alright, I’ll address the elephant in the room here. Yes, he is the cousin of the United Healthcare CEO assassin Luigi Mangione. Perhaps not surprisingly, Nino does not want to answer questions about his family history with Luigi. Anyway, three Republicans are running to succeed him in the State House: political aide Alex Harlan, forensic scientist Dan Katz, and businessman Charles Murphy.

Harlan is a standard Republican, promising to cut taxes, improve public safety, and defend the 2nd Amendment. He’s backed by a few state legislators. Katz is also a standard Republican, wanting to improve government transparency, eliminate the inheritance/estate taxes, and support local farmers. Murphy is a conservative, promising to cut taxes, expand cooperation with ICE, and defend free speech against “the intolerant attacks of the far left.” He’s backed by outgoing Delegate Mangione. Harlan has a wide financial advantage, but Katz has actually outpaced him in spending. Pure toss-up here, but I’ll go with Murphy to win thanks to having the strongest institutional support.

HD-42B (Cockeysville/Timonium area, Harris+26) (D-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Two Republicans are running in this deeply Democratic district: conservative activist Jeff McDonald and conservative activist Larry Novak. McDonald is a conservative, promising to cut taxes, crack down on crime, and defend “freedom and liberty.” He’s backed by the anti-abortion Maryland Right to Life group. Novak is running on a similar platform, focusing on cutting taxes, cracking down on crime, and improving government transparency. He hasn’t raised any money for his campaign though, so McDonald should win this one.

HD-44B (Western Baltimore outskirts, Harris+55) (2-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY) (2 ELECTED):

Democratic incumbents Sheila Ruth and Aletheia McCaskill are running for re-election in this deeply Democratic district, but they’re facing a challenge from singer Bishop Barry Chapman and businesswoman Sherry Scipio. Ruth is a progressive, promising to protect the environment, raise the minimum wage to $25/hour, and fight for universal healthcare. She’s backed by Governor Moore, MD-02 Congressman Olszewski, several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO), and several progressive groups (most notably Our Revolution). McCaskill is a standard Democrat, supporting expanding community investments, expanding access to childcare, and protecting senior services. She’s backed by Governor Moore, US Senator Alsobrooks, MD-02 Congressman Olszewski, MD-07 Congressman Mfume, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Chapman, who lost in the primary here in 2022, seems to be more focused on selling his music than campaigning. His songs aren’t really even songs, it’s more of a spoken word poem with a beat underneath it. There’s no rhythm or tempo or anything of that nature. Thank you for coming to my brief musical interlude. Anyway, Scipio has no campaign presence online. The incumbents have a huge financial advantage here, so they should win this one.

HD-45 (Eastern Baltimore, Harris+76) (3-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY) (3 ELECTED):

Democratic incumbents Stephanie Smith, Jackie Addison, & Caylin Young are all running for re-election, but they’re being challenged in the primary by former State Delegate Chanel Branch, former Baltimore City Councilman Robert Stokes, and teacher George Johnson.

Smith is mostly running on her legislative record, touting her votes to fight for criminal justice reform, expand economic development, and fight for social justice. She’s backed by Governor Moore, US Senator Alsobrooks, and the AFL-CIO. Addison is a standard Democrat, promising to improve public safety, expand funding for public education, and improve senior services. She’s backed by Governor Moore. Young is a liberal, touting his efforts to improve police accountability, support tenants’ rights, and expand local control for Baltimore. He’s backed by several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). He also attracted controversy earlier this year for allegedly punching a woman in the chest during a New Year’s party. The charges were dropped, but bodycam footage was released showing Young repeatedly identifying himself as an elected official and saying that he wasn’t above the law, he was “on top” of it. Not saying that’s suspicious or anything, but yes that’s a very suspicious string of events that led to his charges being dropped. Despite only losing by 100 votes in the 2022 primary, Branch doesn’t really appear to be running an active campaign this time around, at least online. Stokes is running on a vague platform of touting his “results” and “proven leadership” from his time on the Baltimore City Council (which ended in 2024 after he lost re-election to a more liberal candidate). Johnson is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand funding for public education, focus on the root causes of crime, and clean up the streets (by expanding waste management efforts).

Smith & Stokes lead the pack in fundraising, with Young lagging slightly behind them, Addison & Branch lagging further behind Young, and Johnson raising (I kid you not) $1. Literal pocket change for the Johnson campaign. I think Smith & Addison have the top two spots locked down, but the battle for third should be interesting between Young & Stokes. I’ll give the edge to Stokes here, given that he probably has a large base of support from his time on the City Council and Young’s legal issues.

HD-47A (Chillum to Landover, Harris+72) (2-0 D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY) (2 ELECTED):

Democratic incumbents Diana Fennell and Julian Ivey are running for re-election, but they’re being challenged in the primary for this deeply Democratic district by Brentwood Mayor Rocio Treminio-Lopez. Fennell is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand funding for public education, expand economic development, and expand access to affordable healthcare. She’s backed by Governor Moore and several unions. Ivey doesn’t have much of a campaign platform, but he’s been a reliably liberal vote in the legislature and enjoys the backing of Governor Moore. Treminio-Lopez is mostly touting her experience as Mayor of Brentwood and promising to defend the LGBTQ+ community. The incumbents have a wide financial advantage here and should win, but I’m interested to see how much of the vote Treminio-Lopez gets as the only Hispanic elected official running in a district that’s nearly 40% Hispanic.

And that’s it for this edition of Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch. I’ll be back in a few hours to cover all the state legislative primaries happening in Maryland tomorrow. Until then, I’ve been Uncrewed/Chris (you can follow me on Twitter @Uncrewed, same on Bluesky!) and don’t forget to stay awesome!