State Legislative Election Watch- 2026 North Dakota Primary Preview
Covering all of the state legislative primaries going down in North Dakota tomorrow!
STATE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION WATCH- 2026 North Dakota Primary Preview
INTRO:
Hello everyone and welcome to Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch! I’m Uncrewed/Chris and this is your one-stop-shop to everything you need to know about state legislative elections from around the country. We’ve got four states holding primaries tomorrow: Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, & South Carolina. We’ll cover the two smallest states of the bunch today, starting with North Dakota! So, without further ado, let’s get to it!
BACKGROUND:
Just like in South Dakota last week, North Dakota elects three legislators per district, all of them electing one State Senator and most of them electing two State Representatives in primaries where the top-two vote getters win. So, like South Dakota, we’ll be breaking this down by legislative district instead of going by Senate district and then House district.
LD-03 (Eastern Minot area, Trump+48):
HD-03 (2-0 R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Jeff Hoverson is running for re-election in this deeply Republican district, but his fellow Republican incumbent Lori VanWinkle isn’t. That has led three other Republicans to join Hoverson in tomorrow’s primary: businessman Blaine DesLauriers, businesswoman Crystal Hendrickson, and North Dakota State Board of Higher Education member Tim Mihalick.
Hoverson is a right-winger, promising to fight for “individual liberty,” eliminate abortion, and stop “Marxist ideology” from taking over North Dakota. He’s running on a slate with Hendrickson that’s backed by State Senator Bob Paulson. DesLauriers is a standard Republican, wanting to expand energy production, cut taxes, and expand economic development. He’s running on an slate with Mihalick that’s backed by Governor Kelly Armstrong Hendrickson is a conservative, promising to oppose abortion, cut property taxes, and oppose data centers. Mihalick is a moderate, wanting to expand workforce development programs, improve local education, and expand access to affordable healthcare. DesLauriers and Mihalick have a wide financial advantage over Hoverson and Hendrickson. I’ll give the edge to the establishment-backed candidates here. I could see Hoverson winning a seat based on incumbency, but I think the normie Republicans win at least one seat here.
LD-07 (Northeastern Bismarck, Trump+49):
SD-07 (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Michelle Axtman is facing a primary challenge from conservative activist Jerri Hopfauf in this deeply Republican district. Axtman is a standard Republican, wanting to expand economic development, support “conservative budgeting,” and improve public safety. She’s backed by Governor Armstrong. Hopfauf doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but she’s aligned with the right-wing slate for State House here, so she’s a conservative. She’s also the Chairwoman of the LD-07 Republican Party, which has given Hopfauf’s campaign $2.5k for her campaign, which isn’t shady at all. Axtman has a solid financial advantage ove Hopfauf and should be able to use that + incumbency to win here.
HD-07 (2-0 R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
With Republican incumbents Jason Dockter and Matt Heilman retiring, four Republicans are running to replace them: former State Representative Rick Becker, counselor Gaylynn Becker, businessman Steve Sauter, and businessman Greg Vetter.
Rick Becker and Gaylynn Becker (no relation) are conservatives, they’re running on a slate together supporting cutting taxes, expanding school choice, and empowering “parental rights.” Sauter is a standard Republican, wanting to improve public safety, cut taxes, and expand energy development. He’s running on a slate with Vetter that’s backed by Governor Armstrong and Senator Axtman. Vetter is running a little bit to Sauter’s right, promising to expand economic development, cut taxes, and oppose abortion. Vetter and Rick Becker lead the four in fundraising, with Sauter & Gaylynn Becker lagging behind them. I think Rick Becker gets a spot thanks to his name recognition and solid finances, while Vetter gets the other spot, but it’ll be a close race for second.
LD-09 (Rolette County area, Harris+17):
SD-09 (D-NPL-Held) (D-NPL PRIMARY):
Democratic incumbent Richard Marcellais was unseated in 2022 after serving 16 years in the Senate, but was given a second life in 2024 after his old district was struck down as a racial gerrymander. He was given a newly-drawn solidly Democratic district and won his old seat back in 2024 by 23 points. Now, he’s facing a challenge from State Representative Jayme Davis in tomorrow’s primary.
Marcellais is mostly running on his legislative record, touting his efforts to support veterans and expand funding for community services. He’s backed by the LD-09 Democratic Party. Davis is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand access to rural healthcare, improve public safety, and expand access to affordable housing. Marcellais has raised no money for his campaign, while Davis has raised a little under $10k. This one comes down to name recognition vs fresh blood, because Marcellais is running almost entirely on the former. Davis is no stranger to unseating incumbents with high name recognition though, she did that in 2022 when she defeated a 20-year Democratic incumbent in the primary by 50 points! Also keep in mind that Marcellais has a conservative voting record, voting for things like defining gender as based on biological sex and establishing public charter schools in the state, so Davis could get a boost from liberal voters. I’ll be bold here and say Davis unseats Marcellais.
LD-13 (Northern West Fargo, Trump+11):
SD-13 (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Judy Lee is facing a challenge from dentist Phil Sallberg in the Republican primary for this solidly Republican district. Lee doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but she’s been one of the most moderate Republicans in the Senate, having an arguably more liberal voting record than Senator Marcellais over in SD-09. Sallberg is a conservative, promising to champion “parental rights,” support “medical freedoms,” and enact anti-trans laws. He’s raised no money for his campaign, so Lee should win this one easily, though I’m interested to see how much of the vote Sallberg gets as a protest vote for conservatives.
HD-13 (2-0 R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbents Jim Jonas and Austen Schauer are running for re-election, but they’re facing a challenge from a pair of conservatives in the form of engineer Everett Duckworth and former USDA official Russell Bubach. Jonas & Schauer have no campaign presence online, but they’re similarly moderate to Senator Lee. Duckworth & Bubach are running on a slate together (alongside Senate candidate Sallberg), wanting to expand “parental rights,” cut property taxes, and “secure elections.” They’ve raised no money for their campaign, so Jonas & Schauer should be fine here.
LD-15 (Ramsey/Cavalier/Towner Counties, Trump+43):
SD-15 (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Kent Weston is facing two opponents in the Republican primary for this deeply Republican district: former State Senator Judy Estenson and dentist Kristin Kenner.
Weston is a right-winger, promising to protect “Godly family values,” oppose abortion, and defend the 2nd Amendment. Estenson, who lives in LD-09 but is running here because she thought the Supreme Court would overturn the current map, is a conservative. She’s promising to “protect” children in schools, defend “parental rights,” and cut taxes. Kenner is running on a vaguely moderate platform, promising to promote “common sense leadership” and listen to the district. Weston leads the three in fundraising, but Kenner is right on his tail. I think Weston’s incumbency wins him this one, but Kenner could win if the conservative vote is split between Weston/Estenson.
HD-15 (2-0 R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbents Kathy Frelich and Donna Henderson are running for re-election, but they’ll first have to get through businessman Corry Kenner in the primary.
Frelich & Henderson don’t really have much of a campaign platform online, but they’ve been reliably conservative votes in the House and are aligned with State Senator Weston. Kenner (the husband of Kristin Kenner) is running on a similar platform that his wife is running on, promising to listen to the district, be present/accountable, and preserve North Dakota’s quality of life. Kenner leads the three in fundraising by a wide margin, with the incumbents raising under $1k combined. There’s a chance Kenner wins here, but I think the incumbents hold on. If he unseats one of the two incumbents, it’ll probably be Henderson.
LD-23 (Northern Williston area, Trump+69):
HD-23 (2-0 R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Dennis Nehring is running for re-election in this deeply Republican district, but fellow Republican incumbent/walking controversy magnet Nico Rios is not. As such, Nehring is joined in the Republican primary by two candidates: Williston Fire Chief Corey Johnson and conservative activist Sharlet Mohr.
Nehring doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money, but has been a reliably conservative vote in the legislature and is running on a slate with Mohr. Johnson is a standard Republican, promising to expand funding for emergency services, expand energy production, and improve “efficiency” in government. He’s backed by Governor Armstrong. Mohr is mostly running on promising to be a conservative vote like Nehring and melting down about Johnson accepting money from Governor Armstrong. Even if he didn’t accept that money, he’d still wallop Nehring & Mohr in fundraising, because neither conservative has raised any money. I think Nehring gets in the top two thanks to incumbency and Johnson gets the other spot by virtue of money/name recognition as Fire Chief of Williston.
LD-25 (Richland County, Trump+38):
HD-25 (1-1 D/R Split) (GOP PRIMARY):
Yes, this is a Trump+38 district that sends one Democrat and one Republican to the State House. That’s a bit crazy to think nowadays, but Democratic incumbent Alisa Mitskog is inarguably one of the strongest Democratic incumbents in the country. Just take a look at how she did in 2022 to win re-election here:
(Me, I literally made the map)
She won over numerous Trump voters here, but the North Dakota Republicans still think they can beat her. They have two candidates joining Republican incumbent Kathy Skroch (who is looking for revenge here from 2022) in the primary for this deeply Republican district: Walcott Township Supervisor Matt Evans and Richland County Board Chairman Terry Goerger.
Skroch is a standard Republican, wanting to cut taxes, improve local education, and protect access to rural healthcare. She’s running on a slate with Evans that’s backed by State Senator Larry Luick. Evans is a right-winger, promising to crack down on immigration, navigate artificial intelligence, and punish “evil” (specifically touting a Bible verse) by punishing criminals and “public officials who refused to do their jobs.” Goerger is a standard Republican, promising to cut property taxes, expand energy production, and cut “government waste.” He’s backed by Governor Armstrong. Goerger leads the three in fundraising, with Evans lagging behind and Skroch lagging further behind. I think Goerger takes a spot here alongside Skroch, mostly because Evans is the least known and craziest candidate here.
LD-27 (Southern Fargo suburbs, Trump+21):
HD-27 (2-0 R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Greg Stemen is running for re-election, but fellow Republican incumbent Timothy Brown isn’t, leading to two Republicans joining Stemen in the primary for this deeply Republican district: businessman Shawn Kessel and insurance agent Grant Allex.
Stemen is a standard Republican, wanting to cut property taxes, expand economic development, and expand energy production. He’s running on a slate with Kessel that’s backed by Governor Armstrong and State Senator Kristin Roers. Kessel is running on a similar platform, promising to expand economic development, cut costs, and “put people over politics.” Allex is a right-winger, promising to oppose abortion, support the 2nd Amendment, and oppose “deviant and damaging sexual ideology.” He’s only raised $60 for his campaign, while Stemen/Kessel have raised tens of thousands of dollars, so the Stemen/Kessel team should win this one.
LD-31 (Sioux/Hottinger/Grant/southern Morton Counties, Trump+48):
SD-31 (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Donald Schaible is facing a primary challenge from farmer Mary Graner in this deeply Republican district. Schaible is a standard Republican, promising to protect rural emergency services, expand workforce development programs, and cut property taxes. He’s backed by Governor Armstrong and the NRA. He’s also attacking Graner for believing in conspiracy theories, which has to this bizarre AI-generated ad from the incumbent:
All of that is crazy, but it’s the corn pun at the end that really ties it all together. Anyway, Graner (who is most known in the community for her selling of sweet corn, hence the corn pun from the ad), is a conservative. She opposes abortion, wants to protect farmers, and uphold the Constitution. She’s backed by State Representative Karen Rohr and a few conservative grassroots groups. Schaible has a solid financial advantage over Graner, but Graner has raised a fair amount of money. I’ll actually give the edge to Graner here, mostly because I think if you’re breaking out the AI-generated ads claiming your opponent is an Alex Jones-level conspiracy theorist, you’re throwing anything at the wall in desperation. I wouldn’t be shocked if Schaible wins, but for now I think Graner unseats him.
HD-31 (2-0 R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbents Dawson Holle and Karen Rohr are running for re-election, but they’ll be joined in the Republican primary by former Richardton City Councilman Kevin Remington and former State Representative Jim Schmidt.
Holle, who was North Dakota’s youngest-ever elected State Representative (being elected in 2022 at the age of 18), is a right-winger. He supports “medical freedom,” wanting to uphold the “sanctity of marriage,” and defending “religious freedom.” He’s backed by the NRA. Rohr is a conservative, promising to protect access to rural healthcare, protect private property rights, and oppose abortion. Remington & Schmidt are running on a slate together, promising to protect farmers, support public safety, and defend property rights. They’re backed by Senator Schaible. Remington leads the four in fundraising, followed by Holle, Schmidt, & Rohr. Thanks to the conservative incumbents not running together, I actually think at least one of the establishment-backed candidates win here. I’ll go with Holle and Remington to win.
LD-33 (Mercer/Oliver Counties area, Trump+66):
HD-33 (2-0 R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbents Anna Novak and Bill Tveit are running for re-election, but they’ll be joined by businessman Mike Heger and businessman Jesus Aguirre in the primary for this deeply Republican district.
Novak is a standard Republican, promising to expand energy production, expand economic development, and defend “family values.” Tveit is a conservative, promising to cut taxes, oppose abortion, and defend “parental rights.” Heger is a standard Republican, promising to expand energy production, protect farmers, and improve local education. He’s backed by Governor Armstrong. Aguirre wants to expand youth involvement in government, protect local control, and strengthen local communities. Heger leads the pack in fundraising, followed shortly by Novak, while Tveit and Aguirre lag far behind. I think Novak and Heger win here, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tveit hold on and hold off Heger.
LD-39 (Southwestern North Dakota, Trump+72):
HD-39 (2-0 R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbents Keith Kempenich and Mike Schatz are running for re-election, but they’re being challenged by businessman Jason Dodge in the Republican primary for this deeply Republican district. Schatz is a conservative, promising to cut government spending, stop public schools from “indoctrinating” children, and cut taxes. Kempenich & Dodge are running on a slate together, promising to protect farmers, expand energy production, and defend property rights. All three candidates are pretty much neck-and-neck in fundraising. I think Kempenich & Dodge win here, but I could see Schatz edging out Dodge for the final spot.
LD-42 (Western Grand Forks area, Trump+19):
HD-42 (2-0 R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY) (1 SEAT):
One seat is up in a November special election for this solidly Republican district. As such, three candidates are running in the primary tonight: Appointed Republican incumbent Dustin McNally, college student Ethan Harsell, and realtor Connie Osowski.
McNally is a standard Republican, focusing on cutting costs, expanding economic development, and strengthening the University of North Dakota. He’s backed by Governor Armstrong. Harsell is a conservative, promising to cut taxes, stop “foreign adversaries” from owning North Dakota farmland, and cut regulations on the energy industry. Osowski is a standard Republican, promising to protect property rights, cut taxes, and support law enforcement. McNally has a wide financial advantage over both of his opponents and should be the favorite here.
LD-43 (Central Grand Forks, Trump+6):
HD-43 (1-1 D/R Split) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Eric Murphy is running for re-election in this Republican-leaning district, but Democratic incumbent Zachary Ista isn’t. That has led Republicans to try for a clean sweep of this district in November, but they’ll first have to pick their two nominees tomorrow night. They’ll choose between Murphy, healthcare executive Jill Chandler, and businessman Mike Holmes.
Murphy, who looks like a pro wrestler from the 80s that would lose to Hulk Hogan…
Doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but he’s been a moderate vote in the legislature. He’s backed by the NRA. Chandler is a standard Republican, promising to improve local education, cut property taxes, and protect “parental rights.” Holmes is a standard Republican, promising to expand energy production, protect farmers, and support higher education. He’s backed by ND-At Large Congresswoman Julie Fedorchak. Holmes and Murphy lead the three in fundraising, with Chandler trailing close behind. I think Murphy and Holmes win here.
And that’s it for this edition of Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch. I’ll be back in a few hours to preview the Maine primaries going down tomorrow. Until then, I’ve been Uncrewed/Chris (you can follow me on Twitter @Uncrewed, same on Bluesky!) and don’t forget to stay awesome!