State Legislative Election Watch- 2026 Idaho Primary Preview

Covering all of the state legislative primaries happening in Idaho tomorrow!

STATE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION WATCH- 2026 Idaho Primary Preview

INTRO:

Hello everyone and welcome to Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch! I’m Uncrewed/Chris and this is your one-stop-shop to everything you need to know about state legislative elections from around the country. We’ve got a whopping six states holding their primaries on Tuesday, and we already covered two of them yesterday in Alabama & Kentucky. Now, we’re heading to the pacific northwest to cover a pair of states holding their primaries in Idaho and Oregon! We’re starting with Idaho, so, without further ado, let’s get to it!

BACKGROUND:

Idaho has 35 unique districts for their state legislature, with each district electing one State Senator and two State Representatives. Because there are primaries for both State House and State Senate in the same district, I’m just going to go by legislative district instead of starting with the Senate and then moving on to the State House.

Also, a lot of these races involve right-wing Republicans challenging establishment Republicans or vice versa. It’s been an ongoing war in the Idaho Republican Party for the last few cycles now, with the establishment Republicans barely edging out the Freedom Caucus types in 2024. Still though, the right-wing in Idaho have been able to pass several conservative pieces of legislation in the last session. Even then, several pieces failed due to moderates/establishment Republicans killing it. Now, the right-wing is hoping to kill off the establishment once and for all this year and turn Idaho into a Freedom Caucus playground.

LD-01 (Bonner/Boundary Counties, Trump+47):

SD-01 (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Two years after unseating him in the Republican primary for this deeply Republican seat, Republican incumbent Jim Woodward is once again facing conservative activist/former State Senator Scott Herndon.

Woodward is a moderate, touting his efforts to improve local education, hire more doctors, and protect local natural resources. He’s backed by several unions (notably the AFL-CIO and the Idaho Firefighters union) and several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Herndon is a right-winger, promising to eliminate property taxes, cut regulations, and protect “medical freedom.” He’s also attacking Woodward for being “soft” on illegal immigration and supposedly voting to raise taxes. Both candidates are neck-and-neck in fundraising, but you won’t even need that to show you that this will be a close race. Just take a look at the last two times they shared a ballot:

As such, this one’s a pure toss-up. I do think, as the Republican base in Idaho has only gotten more Republican over the last two years, that Herndon wins and gets his seat back. Though this seat does have a more prolific anti-right wing base of Republicans than most others in the state, so I could see Woodward winning.

HD-1A (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Mark Sauter is facing a primary challenge from conservative activist Jane Sauter (no relation).

Mark Sauter touts his “responsible representation” of the district, promising to continue fighting for “conservative Idaho values,” tax cuts, and restrictions on illegal immigration. Yeah, he’s kind of the middle ground between the moderate and right-wing factions of the Idaho Republican Party. He’s backed by the Idaho Farm Bureau and several unions (most notably the Fraternal Order of Police). Jane Sauter is running hard to his right, promising to eliminate property taxes, slash government spending, and “stand firm against the transgender agenda.” She also blames illegal immigration for schools, jails, and hospitals being overcrowded and why there’s a housing shortage in America. Mark has a solid financial advantage over Jane. Let’s go back to 2024, Mark won his primary with 49.9% of the vote over Jane and another right-wing candidate. Essentially, this primary comes down to if you think Mark will be able to get 50% of the vote this time around. I think he will do so and defeat Jane here.

HD-1B (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Cornel Rasor is facing a primary challenge from US Army veteran Chuck Lowman.

Rasor is a right-winger, promising to oppose abortion, defend the 2nd Amendment, and cut regulations. He also promises to “keep his oath to protect the constitutions of the United States and Idaho,” which is probably a dogwhistle to the far-right Oath Keepers militia. He’s backed by Idaho Attorney General Raul Labrador. Lowman is a standard Republican, touting his support for school choice, support for eliminating “inefficient, wasteful programs,” and wanting to improve local infrastructure. He’s backed by Bonner County Sheriff Daryl Wheeler. Rasor has a slight financial advantage over Lowman. One last time for this district, let’s flash back to 2024. That’s when Rasor defeated Lowman by a 52-48 margin, or just under 600 votes. Can Lowman make up the gap? Maybe, but I don’t think so and, as such, Rasor wins this one.

LD-02 (Shoshone/Benewah/Clearwater/eastern Kootenai Counties, Trump+63):

HD-2B (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Dale Hawkins is facing off against building inspector Todd Perry in the Republican primary for this deeply Republican district. Hawkins is a right-winger, touting his efforts to cut property taxes, expand “parental rights,” and defend the 2nd Amendment. Perry has no campaign presence anywhere online and hasn’t raised much money, so Hawkins should win this one easily.

LD-03 (Northern Kootenai County, Trump+59):

HD-3A (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Vito Barbieri is facing a primary challenge from businessman Eric Seeley in this deeply Republican district. Barbieri is a right wing culture warrior, wanting to deport every illegal immigrant and defend the 2nd Amendment. He also bashes public schools, decrying them as a “godless institution” that leads to “cultural suffering” and that public school districts should be “mindful” that taxpayers “can’t afford unlimited budgets.” He also thinks that the separation of church and state means that a government cannot establish a state church, nothing about the government promoting one religion, so he might have a few screws loose. Seeley is running as a conservative, promising to “abolish” abortion, improve government transparency, and fight against new taxes. He’s also attacked President Trump for supporting IVF, calling him “the most pro-choice President in history.”

Yeah, the people of northern Kootenai County have some interesting choices here. Barbieri should be fine though, as Seeley hasn’t attracted any outside support and has only raised about $100 for his campaign.

LD-04 (Coeur d’Alene, Trump+31):

HD-4B (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Elaine Price is facing a primary challenge from former school board member Christa Hazel in this deeply Republican district.

Price is a right-winger, promising to protect children from “grooming and sexualization,” expand school choice, and take politics out of schools. When pressed about what she meant by grooming, Price produced this interesting answer:

(Coeur d’Alene/Post Falls Press)

This just in: Elaine Price thinks heterosexuals kissing is grooming! I’m kidding, but this is most often the case with conservatives like Price who complain about “grooming,” they never have any specific details that make sense and end up fumbling their responses. Anyway, Hazel is running as a more standard Republican, touting her support for “faith, family, and freedom” and explicitly decrying “loyalty tests” in a shot at the Freedom Caucus. She’s also attacking Davis for voting against funding for rural healthcare and funding for special education. She’s backed by former Governor Butch Otter. Hazel also has a decent financial advantage over Price, but I still think Price wins this one. Why? Well, flash back to 2024. That’s when Price defeated an establishment-backed opponent by a 60-40 opponent. Hazel is arguably a better candidate than Price’s 2024 opponent, but I still think Price wins this one.

LD-06 (Latah/Lewis/northern Nez Perce Counties, Trump+19):

SD-06 (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

Republican incumbent Dan Foreman is facing a primary challenge from State Representative Lori McCann in this solidly Republican district.

Foreman is a right-winger, touting his opposition to abortion and support for “medical freedom.” He’s backed by the anti-abortion Idaho Right to Life group and the Idaho Firefighters union. He also has a long history of lashing out at people, threatening to call cops on protestors who opposed his stance on abortion, cursing at someone who confronted him at a fair, and telling a Democratic State House candidate in 2024 (Trish Carter-Goodheart) to “go back to where she came from” after she spoke out against white supremacy at a candidate forum. Carter-Goodheart is Native American and was born in Idaho. That is what partly led Foreman to massively underperform in 2024, only winning by six points in this Trump+19 district. One person that defended Carter-Goodheart (and subtly threw Foreman under the bus) was State Representative Lori McCann, who is now challenging Foreman for his job. McCann is a moderate, touting her efforts to improve local education (and praising the University of Idaho, which Foreman hates), fight for farmers, and improve local infrastructure. She’s backed by the Idaho Education Association (Idaho’s biggest teachers union) and the Idaho Farm Bureau. McCann has a wide financial advantage over Foreman as well. This primary essentially boils down to the one thing, is the conservative base willing to throw out one of their own? McCann herself almost got thrown out in 2024, only winning her primary by 3 points while Foreman won his by just a six point margin over an establishment candidate. This is a pure toss-up, but I’m going to go with McCann to win. I just think Foreman hasn’t run a campaign to keep up with McCann, who has been very active. I could definitely see Foreman winning though, especially if the base can’t overlook McCann being a moderate.

On the Democratic side, two candidates are running: businesswoman Robin Weldy and probation officer Richard Gayler. Weldy is a moderate, touting her support for “fiscal stability,” protecting natural resources, and improving local infrastructure. Gayler is running as a liberal, wanting to expand funding for public education, expand access to healthcare (calling it a human right), and enact term limits. He’s backed by the American Federation of Teachers and Idaho Conservation Voters. Gayler also has a wide fundraising lead over Weldy, so I think he’ll win this one. That would put him in a potentially competitive November election, but only if Foreman is the nominee (as McCann runs near/ahead of the party baseline here consistently).

HD-6A (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

With Republican incumbent Lori McCann retiring in order to run for State Senate, two Republicans are running to replace her: realtor/former State Representative Cindy Agidius and US Army veteran Colton Bennett.

Agidius is running as a standard Republican, promising to balance the budget, support farmers, and defend “constitutional freedoms.” She’s backed by the Fraternal Order of Police and several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Bennett, who came within 200 votes of unseating McCann in 2024, is a right-winger. He supports cutting property taxes, defending the 2nd Amendment, and cracking down on illegal immigration. He’s backed by State Attorney General Raul Labrador and several conservative grassroots groups. He also holds a fundraising advantage over Agidius, so that (combined with name recognition from 2024 and grassroots support) should give him the edge here.

On the Democratic side, three candidates are running: Moscow City Councilman Bryce Blankenship, community activist/2024 nominee Trish Carter-Goodheart, and US Army Veteran Ryan Wayne Augusta. Blankenship is running as a standard Democrat, wanting to expand funding for public education, expand access to affordable healthcare, and protect Idaho’s natural resources. Carter-Goodheart is running on a similar platform, promising to invest in rural education, expand funding for rural healthcare, and protect local natural resources. She’s backed by several Native American advocacy groups. Augusta calls himself a “constitutional conservative,” promising to support term limits, legalize cannabis, and cut the cost of prescription drugs. I don’t know how that makes him a conservative, but what do I know? Anyway, Blankenship leads in fundraising, but Carter-Goodheart is close behind and Augusta hasn’t raised any money. I think Carter-Goodheart wins here thanks to her name recognition from 2024, but I could see Blankenship’s name recognition from the Moscow City Council getting him the win.

HD-6B (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running for the party nod to challenge Republican incumbent Brandon Mitchell: teacher/2024 nominee Kathy Dawes and janitor Kenneth Williams. Dawes is running as a standard Democrat, wanting to expand funding for public education, expand bodily autonomy (e.g. opposing restrictions on abortion), and expand voting rights. She’s backed by the Idaho Education Association. Williams is running on a similar platform, promising to expand funding for public education, expand access to healthcare, and protect local farmers. Dawes has a huge fundraising advantage over Williams and has name recognition from 2024, so she should win this one easily.

LD-07 (Idaho/Adams/southern Nez Perce Counties, Trump+50):

HD-7A (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Kyle Harris is facing a primary challenge from former Lewiston Mayor Michael Collins in this deeply Republican district.

Harris is a right-winger, touting his efforts to cut taxes, punish business owners who hire illegal immigrants, and defend the 2nd Amendment. He also has a quote (from himself) on his website essentially saying that Idaho cannot become a progressive state. Bro, your state backed Trump by 36 points, I think you’re fine in that area. Anyway, Harris is backed by the NRA and several conservative grassroots groups. Collins is also a right-winger, promising to oppose abortion, “defend women’s sports,” and crack down on illegal immigration. Where he differs from Harris is that Collins proudly touts that he would work with non-right wingers and embrace pragmatism. He’s backed by the Idaho Firefighters union. Collins has a slight financial advantage over Harris as well. Back in 2024, Harris defeated an establishment-backed candidate by three points. Now that he has incumbency on his side, I think he wins again, but Collins is one of the better establishment-aligned candidates on the ballot this year.

HD-7B (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Charlie Shepherd is facing a primary challenge from Lewiston Planning/Zoning Commissioner Maureen Anderson.

Shepherd is a standard conservative, touting his efforts to fight back against “woke” ideology, increase funding for public education, and lower taxes. He’s backed by the Idaho Farm Bureau and the Nez Perce County Republican Party. Anderson is running hard to his right, focusing on eliminating property taxes, promoting “Christian values,” and taking “Common Core and CRT” out of classrooms. She’s backed by several conservative grassroots groups. Shepherd has a wide financial advantage over Anderson and has turned back opponents like her in the past by solid margins, so he should be fine here.

LD-08 (Elmore/Valley/Boise/Custer Counties, Trump+42):

SD-08 (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Christy Zito is facing two opponents in the Republican primary for this deeply Republican seat: former State Representative Megan Blanksma and former State Representative Terry Gestrin.

Zito is a right-winger, supporting the 2nd Amendment, promising to stop the “radical trans agenda,” and wanting to cut property taxes. She’s backed by State Attorney General Raul Labrador and several conservative grassroots groups. Blanksma is a moderate, focusing on expanding access to rural healthcare, supporting local farmers, and expanding workforce development programs. She’s backed by the Idaho Firefighters union, the AFL-CIO, and several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Gestrin is also running as a moderate, ignoring culture war issues in favor of improving local public schools. Blanksma leads the pack in fundraising, but Zito is close behind her while Gestrin lags both women. I think Zito wins this one thanks to Blanksma and Gestrin splitting the moderate vote.

HD-8A (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Rob Beiswenger is facing a primary challenge from conservative activist Sean Hall. Beiswenger is a right-winger, touting his votes to “protect our kids from the woke mob,” cut taxes, and enact “medical freedom” legislation. He’s backed by State Attorney General Raul Labrador. Hall is mostly running on improving government transparency and cracking down on “government waste.” He also thinks Beiswenger’s hand-crafted bill to expand “medical freedom” didn’t go far enough. Hall hasn’t raised much money/attracted much support, so Beiswenger should be fine.

HD-8B (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Faye Thompson is facing a primary challenge from former Idaho Department of Parks & Recreation Chairman Brian Beckley.

Thompson is a right-winger, wanting to slash taxes, crack down on illegal immigration, and slash government spending. She’s backed by State Attorney General Raul Labrador, the Republican Parties of each of the counties in the district, and several conservative grassroots groups. Beckley is running as a standard conservative, promising to protect Idaho’s natural resources, lower taxes, and stop “woke policies.” He’s backed by the Idaho Firefighters union. He holds a wide financial advantage over Thompson, but Thompson has institutional support and incumbency on her side, so I think she wins this one.

LD-09 (Payette/Washington/western Canyon Counties, Trump+63):

SD-09 (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Brandon Shippy is facing a challenge from real estate agent Mark Erwin in the Republican primary for this deeply Republican district. Shippy is a right-winger, touting his support for school choice and “medical freedom” and opposition to abortion. He’s backed by the Idaho Farm Bureau and several grassroots conservative groups. Erwin has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised much money, so Shippy should win this one easily.

HD-9A (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent John Shirts is facing a primary challenge from pastor Heidi Smith-Takatori.

Shirts is a standard Republican, touting his support for cutting taxes, supporting law enforcement, and protecting farmers from “liberals in Boise and Washington D.C.,” two places where liberals notably don’t control the government. Smith-Takatori is running on a similar platform, promising to protect farmers, cut property taxes, and expand “parental rights.” She’s backed by several conservative grassroots groups. Shirts has a wide financial advantage over Smith-Takatori and I don’t think he’s done anything moderate enough to anger the conservative base to throw him out. As such, I think he wins this one.

HD-9B (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Judy Boyle is facing a primary challenge from US Army veteran Gregg Diacogiannis. Boyle is a conservative, touting her support for the 2nd Amendment, school choice, and cutting property taxes. Diacogiannis is running slightly to her right, promising to defend the 2nd Amendment, oppose abortion, and eliminate property/income taxes in Idaho. Boyle has a wide fundraising lead over Diacogiannis, who hasn’t attracted much outside support. As such, Boyle should win this one.

LD-11 (Caldwell, Trump+33):

SD-11 (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Camille Blaylock is facing a challenge from former State Senator Chris Trakel in the Republican primary for this deeply Republican district in suburban Boise.

Blaylock is a right-winger, promising to cut taxes, expand “parental rights” in education, and secure the southern border (with Mexico, not Nevada/Utah). She’s backed by State Superintendent Debbie Critchfield and the Idaho Farm Bureau. Trakel is also a right-winger, heavily touting his involvement in suing the Idaho school system for supposedly discriminating against him and his family because they’re Christian. He also wants to restrict transgender rights in schools. Blaylock has a wide financial advantage over Trakel and already beat him 52-48 in 2024, so I don’t see any major reason why she wouldn’t win again.

HD-11A (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Kent Marmon is facing a primary challenge from businessman Carlos Hernandez. Marmon is a right-winger, touting his efforts to balance the budget, expand “medical freedom,” and cut taxes. Hernandez is running as a moderate, promising to expand local control, raise teacher pay, and protect local farmers. Marmon has a wide fundraising lead over Hernandez and has incumbency on his side, so he should win this one.

HD-11B (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Lucas Cayler is facing a primary challenge from Caldwell City Clerk Debbie Geyer.

Cayler is a right-winger, touting his support for school choice, opposition to abortion, and opposition to “green energy” initiatives. He’s backed by State Attorney General Raul Labrador and several conservative grassroots groups. Geyer is a more standard conservative, touting her support for “parental rights” in education, support for “fiscal responsibility,” and opposition to abortion. She’s backed by Governor Brad Little, the Fraternal Order of Police, the Idaho Farm Bureau, and several local elected officials. Both candidates are neck-and-neck in fundraising. This one should be close, as Cayler only won by 40 votes in 2024 against an establishment-backed opponent and the fact that Geyer is an elected official. Still though, I think Cayler wins out here, just barely.

LD-12 (Western Nampa, Trump+40):

SD-12 (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Ben Adams is facing a challenge from community activist Shaun Simmons in the Republican primary for this deeply Republican district. Adams is a right-winger, supporting the 2nd Amendment, opposing abortion, and touting his Christian faith. Simmons supports “fiscal responsibility,” cutting property taxes, and improving government transparency. He has raised no money for his campaign, so Adams should win this one easily.

LD-13 (Eastern Nampa, Trump+40):

HD-13B (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Steve Tanner is facing a primary challenge from real estate developer Kody Daffer in the Republican primary for this deeply Republican district.

Tanner is a right-winger, promising to crack down on illegal immigration, expand school choice, and ban mail-in ballots. He’s backed by State Attorney General Raul Labrador and several grassroots conservative groups. Daffer is running as a standard Republican, focusing on protecting “parental rights,” cutting regulations, and supporting law enforcement. Tanner barely leads Daffer in fundraising, but Daffer hasn’t been able to get much outside support. As such, I think Tanner wins this one.

LD-14 (Gem/northern Ada Counties, Trump+49):

SD-14 (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Scott Grow is facing a primary challenge from conservative activist Mac Raslan in this deeply Republican district. Grow is a standard Republican, promising to cut taxes, reduce traffic congestion, and expand economic development. Raslan calls himself an “America First Conservative,” promising to defend the 2nd Amendment, support “parental rights,” and defend free speech from “big tech.” He’s backed by several grassroots conservative groups, but he hasn’t raised much money, so Grow should win this one.

LD-16 (Garden City/north-central Boise, Harris+19):

SD-16 (D-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

With Democratic incumbent Allison Rabe retiring, two Democrats are running to replace her in this deeply Democratic district: State Representative Sonia Galaviz and businessman Justin Mitson.

Galaviz is mostly focused on education issues, focusing on expanding funding for public education and promising to stop Republican-led bills to cut funding/give funding to charter schools. She’s backed by several local unions, most notably the AFL-CIO. Mitson, who lost to Rabe by an 89-11 margin in 2024, has no campaign presence online and raised no money for his campaign. As such, Galaviz should win this one easily.

On the Republican side, two candidates are running: inspector/2024 nominee Lee Joe Lay and charter school board member Geoff Surbeck. Lay wants to end private sector prisons, repeal property taxes, and institute a vehicle mileage tax. Surbeck is mostly focused on cutting taxes. With neither candidate raising any money, I’ll go with Lay to win this based on name recognition from 2024.

HD-16A (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Sonia Galaviz retiring in order to run for State Senate, two Democrats are running to replace her: nonprofit director Megan Woller and community organizer Jeffrey Watkins.

Woller is a standard Democrat, promising to expand early childhood education, increase protections for workers, and expand access to affordable housing. She’s backed by the AFL-CIO and the Idaho Firefighters union. Watkins is a liberal, promising to expand funding for public education, expand funding for healthcare, and protect the LGBTQ+ community. He’s backed by the Idaho Education Association. Woller has slightly outpaced Watkins in fundraising and has slightly better institutional support than him, so I think she’s the favorite here.

LD-20 (Northern Meridian, Trump+32.5):

SD-20 (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Josh Keyser is facing two opponents in the Republican primary for this deeply Republican district in suburban Boise: attorney Russ Spencer and US Air Force veteran Richard Marsh.

Keyser is a conservative, supporting “individual freedom,” cutting taxes, and expanding “parental rights.” He’s backed by State Attorney General Raul Labrador, the NRA, and the Fraternal Order of Police. Spencer is also a conservative, promising to oppose abortion, lower property taxes, and “preserve Idaho’s conservative heritage.” He’s backed by several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Marsh wants to enact term limits, crack down on crimes involving children, and improve government transparency. He also had this funny comment to say on his Facebook page:

He’s as regular as anybody that drives a Tesla cyber truck could be, AKA not regular at all. Anyway, Keyser leads in fundraising, with Spencer right behind him and Marsh lagging behind both. Maybe he could have used that Cybertruck money for his campaign instead of wasting it on a drivable toaster. Keyser should win this one, especially given that the anti-incumbent vote is split.

LD-22 (Southern Meridian, Trump+28):

SD-22 (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Lori Den Hartog is facing a primary challenge from former Idaho Public Utility Commission official Josh Haver in this deeply Republican district. Hartog, the Majority Leader, doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but she’s aligned with the right-wing Freedom Caucus in the legislature. Haver also doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online and he’s only raised $14 for his campaign, so Hartdog should win this one easily.

HD-22A (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With right-wing Republican incumbent John Vander Woude retiring, two Republicans are running to replace him: doctor/former State Representative Greg Ferch and real estate agent Kelly Walton.

Ferch is a standard Republican, focusing on cutting regulations for businesses, supporting school choice, and supporting law enforcement. He’s backed by ID-01 Congressman Russ Fulcher, State Attorney General Raul Labrador, and several local elected officials. Walton is a conservative, promising to oppose abortion, stop “woke policies” in schools, and defend “parental rights.” But, he’s also promised not to engage in the culture war (even though he’s against “woke policies”). Yeah, he’s sending a lot of mixed messages here. He’s backed by Governor Little and the Fraternal Order of Police. Both candidates are neck-and-neck in fundraising, but I think Ferch’s name recognition and grassroots support ultimately gets him over the finish line.

LD-23 (Owyhee/southern Ada/Canyon Counties, Trump+58):

HD-23A (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Chris Bruce is facing a primary challenge from former State Representative Melissa Durrant in this deeply Republican district.

Bruce is a right-winger, touting his support for the 2nd Amendment, opposition to federal overreach of state lands, and opposition to abortion. He’s backed by State Attorney General Raul Labrador, the Fraternal Order of Police, and several grassroots conservative groups. Durrant is running as a standard conservative, promising to put families first instead of “political agendas.” She also wants to expand funding for public education, defend the 2nd Amendment, and cut taxes. Bruce has a slight fundraising lead over Durrant and given that he already beat her in 2024 (albeit by just 80 votes), I think he’ll win again this year.

LD-24 (Twin Falls/Gooding/Camas Counties, Trump+61):

SD-24 (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Glenneda Zuiderveld is facing a challenge from Twin Falls County Commissioner Bret Reinke in the Republican primary for this deeply Republican district.

Zuiderveld is a right-winger, promising to support “medical freedom,” protect the First Amendment, and take back control of water rights from the federal government. She’s backed by State Attorney General Raul Labrador and the far-right Moms For Liberty group. Reinke is a standard Republican, promising to cut taxes, support law enforcement, and protect local farmers. He’s backed by the Idaho Firefighters union. Reinke also has a solid financial lead over Zuiderveld. Back in 2024, Zuiderveld was able to fend off an establishment-backed challenger by nine points. Now, Reinke is a better candidate than her 2024 opponent, but I still think Zuiderveld wins here.

HD-24A (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Clint Hostetler is facing a primary challenge from attorney Alexandra Caval.

Hostetler is a right-winger, promising to stop the “border invasion,” defend the First Amendment, and protect “family values” from “Marxist ideologies” in schools and libraries. He’s backed by State Attorney General Raul Labrador. Caval is running as a standard Republican, promising to stand with law enforcement, expand funding for special education, and promote “fiscal responsibility.” She’s backed by the Idaho Farm Bureau. Caval has a wide financial advantage over Hostetler, but Hostetler was able to easily unseat an establishment-backed incumbent in 2024 and Caval is not as strong as the incumbent was. As such, I think Hostetler wins this one.

HD-24B (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Steve Miller is facing two opponents tomorrow night: US Marine Corps veteran William Mostoller and farmer Chance Requa.

Miller is a moderate, supporting school choice, focusing on improving local water infrastructure, and promising to protect Idaho’s natural resources. He’s backed by several Republican-aligned special interest groups. Mostoller is a right-winger, promising to crack down on illegal immigration, defend the 2nd Amendment, and cut government spending. He’s backed by several conservative grassroots groups. Requa is running as a standard Republican, promising to protect local farmers, expand school choice, and defend the 2nd Amendment. He’s backed by the AFL-CIO. Miller leads the three in fundraising, but Mostoller and Requa are neck-and-neck behind him. If this was just Miller vs Mostoller, I’d probably give the advantage to Miller. However, with the presence of Requa sucking up the establishment vote, I think Mostoller wins this and gives LD-24 a full Freedom Caucus slate.

LD-25 (Twin Falls, Trump+38):

SD-25 (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Josh Kohl is facing a primary challenge from businessman Casey Swensen in this deeply Republican district.

Kohl is a right-winger, promising to crack down on illegal immigration, expand “health freedom,” and oppose the “trans agenda.” He’s backed by the NRA and several conservative grassroots groups. Swensen is a moderate, focusing on cutting costs, supporting law enforcement, and cutting taxes. He’s backed by the Fraternal Order of Police and former State Senator Linda Hartgen (who Kohl unseated in 2024). Kohl has a slight financial advantage over Swensen here. Given that Kohl unseated an establishment-backed incumbent (Hartgen) by over 26 points in 2024 and has a financial advantage, I think he should be fine here against Swensen.

HD-25A (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With establishment-aligned appointed Republican incumbent Don Hall retiring, four candidates are running to replace him: Twin Falls City Councilman Grayson Stone, conservative activist Andrew Messer, nursing assistant Zaine Newberry, and businessman Josh Callen.

Stone is a standard Republican, wanting to lower property taxes, defend Idaho’s natural resources, and cut red tape for businesses. He’s backed by Governor Little, outgoing Representative Hall (and the person Hall succeeded, Lance Clow), the Fraternal Order of Police, and several local elected officials. Messer is a right-winger, promising to cut taxes, defend the 2nd Amendment, and stand for “personal liberty.” He’s backed by State Senator Josh Kohl and several conservative grassroots groups. Newberry is a moderate, promising to support small businesses, improve local healthcare, and expand access to affordable housing. Callen is running as a standard Republican, promising to stand with law enforcement, improve local education, and cut red tape for businesses. Stone leads the pack in fundraising, with Messer lagging behind, Callen lagging behind even harder, and Newberry not raising much money. I think Messer wins this one thanks to the establishment vote splitting itself in three, but I could definitely see Stone winning this. Twin Falls is a bit friendly to the establishment and Stone is a local elected official, so don’t count him out.

HD-25B (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent David Leavitt is facing a primary challenge from Twin Falls City Councilwoman Cherie Vollmer.

Leavitt is a right-winger, promising to improve “election integrity,” defend “constitutional rights,” and defend Idaho’s “state sovereignty.” He’s backed by State Attorney General Raul Labrador, the NRA, and several grassroots conservative groups. Vollmer is a moderate, promising to support local small businesses, cut costs, and stand with law enforcement. She’s backed by Governor Little and former State Senator Linda Hartgen. Vollmer has a decent financial advantage over Leavitt. I think Leavitt wins this one, as he (like Senator Kohl) unseated an establishment-backed incumbent by a solid margin in 2024 and now has incumbency on his side.

LD-26 (Blaine/Jerome/Lincoln Counties, Trump+5):

HD-26A (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Mike Pohanka faces a challenge from businessman Jeff Emerick in the Republican primary for this ultra-competitive district. Pohanka is a moderate, promising to protect local water rights, expand community collaboration, and crack down on crime. He’s backed by the Fraternal Order of Police and the Idaho Firefighters union. Emerick wants to expand funding for public education and hold nonprofits “accountable.” Emerick has raised no money, so Pohanka should win this one easily.

LD-28 (Franklin/Power/eastern Bannock Counties, Trump+51):

SD-28 (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Jim Guthrie is facing a primary challenge from Idaho Army National Guard veteran David Worley in this deeply Republican district.

Guthrie is a moderate, touting his support for local government control, promising to protect farmers, and focusing on expanding funding for local education. He’s backed by the Fraternal Order of Police and the Idaho Firefighters union. Worley is a right-winger, promising to crack down on illegal immigration, defend “Idaho Family Values,” and oppose abortion. He’s backed by State Attorney General Raul Labrador and several conservative grassroots groups. Guthrie has a wide financial advantage over Worley. I think Guthrie wins this one. He has incumbency on his side and this district has been more hesitant to embrace the Freedom Caucus than others in the state.

HD-28A (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

In a rematch of 2024 (despite there being three candidates), Republican incumbent Rick Cheatum is facing off against conservative activist James Lamborn and businessman Mike Saville in the Republican primary here.

Cheatum is a moderate, touting his efforts to cut property taxes, build more housing, and stand with law enforcement. He’s backed by the Fraternal Order of Police and the Idaho Firefighters union. Lamborn is a right-winger, touting his opposition to abortion, support for the 2nd Amendment, and promising to crack down on government waste. Saville is a moderate, wanting to expand funding for public education, cut property taxes, and expand access to affordable healthcare. Cheatum leads the pack in fundraising, with Lamborn close behind him and Saville not raising much money. Just for reference, here’s what the 2024 result looked like here:

Split field led to a Cheatum win. But, I think Saville has more room to fall than anyone else, so his votes will probably go to Cheatum. As such, I think Cheatum wins. However, if those Saville votes just ended up being an anti-Cheatum vote, then Lamborn definitely has room to grow and maybe even win.

LD-29 (Pocatello, Trump+12):

HD-29B (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Tanya Burgoyne is facing a primary challenge from social worker Jennifer Miles in this Republican-leaning district. Burgoyne is a right-winger, promising to oppose abortion, defend the 2nd Amendment, and cut government spending. She’s backed by the Idaho Firefighters union and the Idaho Farm Bureau. Miles is a moderate, promising to expand funding for public education, stand with law enforcement, and cut regulations on businesses. Burgoyne has a wide financial advantage over Miles and has incumbency on her side, so she should win this one.

LD-30 (Bingham/Butte Counties, Trump+60.5):

SD-30 (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Julie VanOrden is facing a primary challenge from conservative activist Ethan Neff in the Republican primary for this deeply Republican district.

VanOrden is a moderate, touting her efforts to balance the budget and expand workforce development programs. She’s backed by the NRA, the Idaho Farm Bureau, and the Idaho Firefighters union. Neff is a conservative, focusing on expanding “parental rights” in education, protecting water resources, and cutting regulations for businesses. You might be asking, “Chris, how does that make him a conservative?” Well, his Facebook page paints him as a more Freedom Caucus-type of candidate. He touts himself as “pro-God,” pro-life, and anti-”DEI.” VanOrden has a wide financial advantage over Neff. She already turned back a Freedom Caucus candidate in 2024 by nearly 30 points, so I think she should be fine here against another right-winger in 2026.

HD-30B (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Ben Fuhriman is facing a primary challenge from teacher/former State Representative Julianne Young.

Fuhriman is a standard Republican, touting his support for protecting water rights, supporting school choice, and promising to rise above “politics and slogans,” which is a not-so-subtle shot at the Freedom Caucus. He’s backed by Governor Little, the Fraternal Order of Police, and the Idaho Firefighters union. Young is a right-winger, touting her opposition to abortion, support for the 2nd Amendment, and support for “family values,” namely opposing same-sex marriage. Not relevant here, but I find it really interesting that there’s like no Republicans nowadays that will actively say they’re against same-sex marriage. It really shows how far we’ve come over the last decade plus. Anyway, Young is backed by State Attorney General Raul Labrador. Fuhriman has a solid financial advantage over Young, but Young has kept pace in that area. Back in 2024, Fuhriman unseated Young by just two votes. I think Young makes up those two votes here though and takes her old job back.

LD-31 (Jefferson/Fremont/Lemhi/Clark Counties, Trump+69):

HD-31B (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Rod Furniss is facing a primary challenge from former State Representative Karey Hanks in this deeply Republican district.

Furniss doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but he’s been more aligned with the moderates than the Freedom Caucus in the State House. Hanks is a right-winger, promising to protect the 2nd Amendment, oppose abortion, and stop the “woke agenda.” Furniss has a slight financial advantage over Hanks. Furniss beat Hanks here by a little under 300 votes in 2024, which marked Hanks’s second straight loss in the primary (having been unseated in 2022 by 1,000 votes). I think she’ll notch loss number three tomorrow as Furniss wins another term.

LD-32 (Western Bonneville County, Trump+49.5):

HD-32A (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Stephanie Mickelsen is facing a primary challenge from conservative activist Kelly Golden in this deeply Republican district.

Mickelsen is a moderate, touting her support for “fiscal responsibility,” “parental choice” in education, and cutting regulations. She’s backed by Lieutenant Governor Scott Bedke, several local elected officials, and the Fraternal Order of Police. Golden is a right-winger, promising to crack down on illegal immigration, oppose abortion, and defend “parental rights” in education. Mickelsen has a wide financial advantage over Golden and already beat her by 28 points in 2024, so she should be fine here.

HD-32B (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Appointed Republican incumbent Erin Bingham is facing a challenge from businessman Brian McKellar in the Republican primary here.

Bingham is a moderate, promising to balance the budget, expand funding for public education, and build more housing. She’s backed by Governor Little, Lieutenant Governor Scott Bedke, State Superintendent Debbie Critchfield, the Idaho Farm Bureau, and the Fraternal Order of Police. McKellar is running slightly to Bingham’s right, promising to protect access to healthcare, cut “inefficient spending,” and cut regulations. Bingham has a solid financial advantage over McKellar and has better institutional support, so I think she wins this one.

LD-33 (Idaho Falls, Trump+29):

HD-33A (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Barbara Ehardt is facing a challenge from firefighter Connor Cook in the Republican primary for this deeply Republican district centered on Idaho’s fourth biggest city.

Ehardt is a right-winger, touting her efforts to make a “pro-America” school curriculum, eliminate property taxes, and “protect girls’ sports.” She’s backed by US Senator Jim Risch, ID-01 Congressman Russ Fulcher, State Attorney General Raul Labrador, and the Fraternal Order of Police. Cook is a moderate, promising to stand with law enforcement, expand workforce development programs, and improve local infrastructure. With Ehardt having a solid financial advantage and Cook not attracting much outside support, I think she wins this one.

HD-33B (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Marco Erickson is facing a primary challenge from conservative activist Jilene Burger.

Erickson is a standard Republican, touting his efforts to support law enforcement, cut taxes, and lower government spending. He’s backed by the Fraternal Order of Police and the NRA. Burger is a right-winger, touting her support for “constitutional values” and claiming to be the “Voice of the Taxpayers.” She’s mostly attacking Erickson for not aligning with the Freedom Caucus. Erickson has a decent financial advantage over Burger and already beat her by a 55-45 margin in 2024, so I think he wins again here.

LD-34 (Madison County, Trump+64):

HD-34B (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Britt Raybould is facing a primary challenge from US Navy veteran Larry Golden in this deeply Republican, Mormon-heavy district. Raybould is a moderate, mostly focusing on improving public education and protecting water rights. Golden is a right-winger, promising to defend the 2nd Amendment, expand school choice, and protect “parental rights” in education. Raybould has a wide financial advantage over Golden and already beat him by a 66-34 margin in 2024, so Raybould should win this one easily.

LD-35 (Eastern Idaho, Trump+50):

HD-35A (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Appointed Republican incumbent Mike Veile is facing a challenge from former State Representative Chad Christensen in the Republican primary for this deeply Republican district.

Veile is a standard Republican, focusing on expanding workforce development programs, protecting Idaho’s natural resources, and supporting small businesses. He’s backed by the NRA. Christensen is a right-winger, promising to be a “taxpayer watchdog,” crack down on sex crimes, and crack down on illegal immigration. He’s also a major bomb thrower on Facebook, pretty much calling everybody to the left of him “liberals,” including Veile. Veile has a solid financial advantage over Christensen and should win this one. I’m not counting out Christensen winning based on name recognition though.

And that’s it for this edition of Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch. I’ll be back later today to cover all the state legislative primaries in Oregon. Until then, I’ve been Uncrewed/Chris (you can follow me on Twitter @Uncrewed, same on Bluesky!) and don’t forget to stay awesome!