State Legislative Election Watch- 2026 Indiana Primary Preview
Covering all of the state legislative primaries happening in Indiana tomorrow!
STATE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION WATCH- May 4th, 2026
INTRO:
Hello everyone and welcome to Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch! I’m Uncrewed/Chris and this is your one-stop-shop to everything you need to know about state legislative elections from around the country. Yesterday, we covered all the state legislative primaries happening in Ohio on Tuesday. Today, we’re covering the other state holding primaries on Tuesday, Indiana! So, without further ado, let’s get to it!
BACKGROUND:
The Indiana State Legislature has been one of more news-worthy legislatures in America over the last year solely because of one thing, redistricting! Thanks to President Trump’s unpopularity and a worsening economy, Republicans around the country set out (and are still setting out as of writing thanks to the Supreme Court) to gerrymander states they control to give themselves an advantage in the race for Congress. Indiana was one of those states, with Republicans hoping to turn the state’s 7-2 D-R map into a 9-0 Republican map, something that looked like this abomination:
After months of a pressure campaign and some setbacks, the legislature finally decided to hold a vote on it. The House voted 57-41 to pass the map, with 12 Republicans voting against it. After another pressure campaign and death threats to Senators who were holding out, the Senate voted against the map by a 31-19 margin, with 21 Republicans voting against it. Yeah, the Republican caucus as a whole didn’t even vote for it! President Trump and Governor Braun immediately promised primaries to the Senators who voted against it and all 10 Republican Senators who voted against redistricting and are up for re-election this year have either retired or are facing primary challengers. Will they succeed? And what will the other primaries for the state legislature tell us about the “Hoosier State” in 2026? Well, let’s find out!
SD-01 (Central Lake County, Trump+7) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Dan Dernulc, who opposed redistricting, is facing two challengers in this ultra-competitive district: businessman Trevor De Vries and businessman Nader Liddawi.
Dernulc is mostly running on his conservative voting record, touting his votes to cut taxes, crack down on businesses employing illegal immigrants, and crack down on utility companies raising rates on senior citizens. De Vries is running to his right, spouting a bit of Christian Nationalism by promising to protect “God-given” rights, not rights from the government. He also opposes abortion and wants to slash business regulations. He’s backed by President Trump, Governor Mike Braun, Lieutenant Governor Micah Beckwith, the Koch-aligned Americans For Prosperity group and several conservative grassroots groups. Finally, Liddawi doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money, but (in the one Chicago Tribune interview he gave) he says he wants to lower the cost of living and improve the area’s relationship with Chicago (because it’s literally right next door, hence the Chicago Tribune interview). Speaking of money, Dernulc has easily led De Vries in that department, but De Vries definitely has the late momentum thanks to the Trump endorsement. This one will be close and it’s always a dangerous game to pick against the Trump-endorsed candidate in a Republican primary, so I’m going to go with De Vries to win. I could definitely see Dernulc’s incumbency or Liddawi taking enough of the anti-Dernulc vote to lead to a Dernulc win though. Either way, whoever wins will face an interesting November election against the Democratic nominee/union official Scott Houldieson.
SD-04 (Portage/Michigan City area, Trump+2) (D-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Two Republicans are running in this ultra-competitive/Democratic-held seat: Pine Township Board Chairman Nate Uldricks and businessman Johannes Poulard.
Uldricks is running as a moderate, wanting to improve the area’s manufacturing economy, crack down on crime (claiming that Chicago is threatening to encroach with their crime), and protect the local environment. He’s backed by Governor Mike Braun, US Senator Jim Banks, IN-02 Congressman Rudy Yakym, and the local branch of the IUOE. Poulard is running on a weird platform, wanting to abolish the minimum wage, elect police chiefs (on top of electing sheriffs), and slash regulations on steel mills. Uldricks has easily lapped Poulard in fundraising and should win this one easily.
SD-06 (Benton County to southern Lake County, Trump+36) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Rick Niemeyer, who voted against redistricting, is facing a challenge from union carpenter Jay Starkey in this deeply Republican district.
Niemeyer is mostly running on his conservative voting record, touting his votes to stop utility rate hikes, stop carbon storage pipelines from being built, and provide property tax relief. He’s backed by several local unions and several conservative groups. Starkey is running as a conservative, promising to hold utility companies accountable, support “fiscal responsibility,” and improve government transparency. He’s mostly attacking Niemeyer for “voting with liberal democrats.” He’s backed by Governor Braun and State Attorney General Todd Rokita. He also has a decent-sized financial advantage over Niemeyer. I think Starkey actually wins this one, but Niemeyer winning thanks to incumbency wouldn’t surprise me.
SD-11 (Northern Elkhart/St. Joseph Counties, Trump+14) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Linda Rogers, who voted for redistricting, is facing a challenge from doctor Brian Schmutzler in this solidly Republican district. Like most of her colleagues facing redistricting-caused challengers,
Rogers is running on her conservative voting record. She’s touting her votes to cut taxes, prevent “boys from participating in girls’ sports,” and defend the 2nd Amendment. She also has a whole section of her website explaining her “No” vote on redistricting, explaining that the map would centralize power in Indianapolis, cut her district between multiple Congressional districts, and push current IN-02 Congressman Rudy Yakym’s district into territory represented in the past by former Democratic Congressman/former US Senator Joe Donnelly. I don’t know how sound those reasons are, but they are definitely reasons. Anyway, she’s backed by several conservative/conservative-leaning groups like the Indiana Farm Bureau and the Indiana Chamber of Commerce. Schmutzler is running to Rogers’s right, touting his support for the “MAHA” Movement led by HHS Secretary RFK Jr (still weird to say), support for “parental rights” in education, and support for “Christian Conservatism.” He’s backed by President Trump, Governor Braun, IN-03 Congressman Marlin Stutzman, and Turning Point USA. Both candidates have raised a ton of money, with Rogers raising over $500k and Schmutzler raising over $300k. I think Schmutzler’s Trump backing is enough to get him the win here, but I could definitely see Rogers winning thanks to incumbency.
SD-15 (Northern Fort Wayne area, Trump+17) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):
Republican incumbent Liz Brown did vote for redistricting, but that’s not the reason why she’s being challenged in this solidly Republican district by school board member Darren Vogt. No, it’s because Brown slow-walked an immigration bill that would have led to harsher punishments for businesses employing illegal immigrants. She has feuded with Attorney General Todd Rokita and US Senator Jim Banks over the bill, with Rokita claiming that Brown opposed the bill because she “has an illegal alien in the family.” That has led to Vogt, who works for Senator Banks as his special assistant, launching a run against Brown.
Brown is running as a right-winger, touting her support for President Trump, supporting “protecting girls’ sports,” and promising to support law enforcement. Her support for Trump paid off as Trump endorsed her back in March. She’s also backed by Governor Braun and several conservative grassroots groups. Vogt is running as a conservative, mostly focused on what he calls the “Great Hoosier Audit.” That entails a comprehensive review of government spending, harsher penalties for fraud, and the use of “AI Fraud Detection Tools,” because AI totally has an amazing track record of doing that kind of thing. He’s backed by US Senator Jim Banks, Attorney General Todd Rokita, and State Treasurer Daniel Elliott. Brown leads Vogt in the fundraising category (though Vogt is no slouch there), so I think that (combined with the Trump/Braun endorsements) means she’s the favorite here.
On the Democratic side, two candidates are running: US Air Force veteran Chloe Andis and businesswoman Julie McGill. Andis is running as a progressive, wanting to build more affordable housing, supporting universal healthcare, and supporting raising the minimum wage to $20/hour. She’s endorsed by Run for Something. McGill is running as a standard liberal, promising to stop price gouging, demand better transparency from corporations, and freeze property taxes for seniors. Both candidates haven’t raised much money, so this one’s pretty much a toss-up. I’m going to go with Andis winning, but I’m flying blind here (and that’s saying something coming from someone with only one working eye).
SD-17 (Grant/Huntington/Wabash Counties, Trump+46) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Nick McKinley was appointed to this deeply Republican seat back in February. In order to get a full term, he’s going to have to get through two opponents in the Republican primary tomorrow: Manchester Community School Board President Michael Hensley and real estate agent Chris Parker.
McKinley is running as a conservative, promising to crack down on crime, cut taxes, and support the 2nd Amendment. He’s backed by IN-02 Congressman Rudy Yakym, several local elected officials, and the Indiana Farm Bureau. Hensley has no campaign presence online and has only raised $200 for his campaign. Parker is running as a right-winger, promising to fight for local farmers, cut property taxes, and “uphold Christian values.” McKinley has a decent-sized financial advantage over Parker, so he should be the favorite to win here.
SD-19 (Jay County to southern Fort Wayne, Trump+39) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Travis Holdman, who voted against redistricting, is facing a challenge from Bluffton City Councilman Blake Fiechter in this deeply Republican district.
Holdman is running on his conservative voting record, touting his votes to crack down on crime, balance the state budget, and ban abortion. He’s backed by several conservative groups like the Indiana Farm Bureau and the Indiana Chamber of Commerce. Fiechter is running on a similarly conservative platform, opposing abortion, promising to stop “corporate welfare,” and supporting deporting every illegal immigrant. He’s backed by President Trump and Lieutenant Governor Micah Beckwith, but he had a weird road to get to where he is today. He suspended his campaign back in February, citing the challenges of running a campaign in this sprawling district. However, a few days later, he met with President Trump in Washington D.C. and resumed his campaign. You can tell in the campaign finance reports that his initial fears were kind of validated as he’s only raised a little over $50k compared to Holdman’s $234k. That’s not even getting into the spending discrepancy, as Holdman has spent over $350k for his campaign, while Fiechter has only spent $5k. Fiechter is getting outside help from pro-redistricting groups, so that should help him. Like I said earlier, I find it hard to bet against Trump’s endorsed candidates in Republican primaries (especially here where he’s heavily involved in them), so I’m going with Fiechter to win. Fiechter’s definitely the weakest of the pro-redistricting challengers so far though, so a Holdman win shouldn’t be counted out.
SD-21 (Tipton/southern Howard/western Hamilton Counties, Trump+24) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):
Republican incumbent Jim Buck, who opposed redistricting, is facing a challenge from Tipton County Commissioner Tracey Powell in this deeply Republican district.
Buck is running as a conservative, touting his opposition to abortion, his votes to cut taxes, and his votes to improve “election integrity.” He’s literally a standard right-wing Republican on everything but redistricting. But, that’s literally all that matters to the Indiana Republican establishment, so he’s in the crosshairs. Powell is also a conservative, promising to cut taxes, cut regulations on healthcare services, and improve local education. He’s backed by President Trump, Turning Point USA, and the Koch-aligned Americans For Prosperity group. Buck has a wide campaign finance advantage over Powell, but he does seem to be pretty nervous about this race. How nervous? Well, he’s attacking Powell for taking proper safety procedures in his chiropractor office during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in December 2020. Powell has responded by essentially saying he didn’t, but the fact that Buck is bringing up stuff from the height of the COVID-19 pandemic five and a half years ago doesn’t seem like a sign of confidence from his campaign. I think the Trump endorsement carries Powell over the finish line here.
On the Democratic side, two candidates are running: US Navy veteran Joe Kazlas and social worker Kirsten Root. Kazlas is running as a standard Democrat, wanting to cut utility costs, enact term limits, and support unions. Root is running as a progressive, focusing on expanding funding for healthcare, raising the minimum wage to over $20/hour, and enacting a universal childcare program. With neither candidate raising much money and neither having any major endorsements, this one’s a pure toss-up. I’m going to go with Root winning, but Kazlas could easily win too.
SD-22 (Carroll/eastern Tippecanoe Counties, Trump+14) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):
Republican incumbent Ron Alting is facing a challenge in the Republican primary from businessman Richard Bagsby in this solidly Republican district.
Alting is running as a standard Republican, touting his efforts to cut taxes, support law enforcement, and protect private property. He’s backed by President Trump and several conservative groups, most notably the Indiana Farm Bureau and the Fraternal Order of Police. Bagsby is running as a conservative, promising to support law enforcement, lower utility bills, and defend “parental rights.” He’s also attacking Alting for not doing much in his 20+ years in politics. He’s endorsed by Lieutenant Governor Beckwith, who has a bit of a feud with Alting for Alting not being conservative enough. Alting has a wide financial advantage over Bagsby and should win this one.
On the Democratic side, two candidates are running: teacher Natasha Baker and social worker Marlena Edmondson. Baker is running as a standard Democrat, promising to increase funding for public schools, improve community safety, and expand access to healthy food. Edmondson is running on a similar platform, wanting to increase the minimum wage, expand the supply of affordable housing, and expand funding for public education. Baker has a small financial advantage over Edmondson, but it’s not that big. Pure coin flip here, but I’m going to go with Baker winning because she seems like she has the more active campaign.
SD-23 (Parker County to western Tippecanoe County, Trump+26) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Spencer Deery, who voted against redistricting, is facing a challenge from Fountain County Republican Party Chairwoman/aide to Lieutenant Governor Beckwith Paula Copenhaver in this deeply Republican district.
Deery is running as a conservative, touting his votes to cut taxes, “protect girls’ sports,” and defend the 2nd Amendment. He’s backed by several local elected officials, the Indiana Farm Bureau, and the NRA. Copenhaver is running slightly to Deery’s right, wanting to cut taxes, support local farmers, and cut funding for green energy projects. She’s backed by President Trump and IN-08 Congressman Mark Messmer. Deery has a huge financial advantage over Copenhaver, but Copenhaver has been the major beneficiary of outside spending from groups linked to Turning Point USA and US Senator Jim Banks, who are attacking Deery for not supporting redistricting. I think the Trump endorsement pulls Copenhaver over the finish line, but she’s not that strong of a candidate and I can definitely see Deery’s huge cash advantage ultimately giving him the win.
SD-25 (Madison/northern Hamilton Counties, Trump+28) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):
In a rare non-redistricting-driven primary, Republican incumbent Mike Gaskill is facing off against nurse practitioner Katherine Callahan in this deeply Republican district. Gaskill doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online (his support for redistricting was his first Facebook post on his campaign page in over three years), but he’s a solidly conservative legislator. Callahan also doesn’t have much of a campaign platform outside of pushing her podcast (using AI slop art may I add), but she is attacking Gaskill for accepting lobbyist money. Gaskill should win this one easily.
On the Democratic side, two candidates are running: Anderson Civil & Human Rights Director/2022 nominee Tamie Dixon-Tatum and businessman Todd Shelton. Dixon-Tatum is running as a standard Democrat, focusing on expanding access to affordable housing, cutting costs for working families, and protecting the local environment. Shelton is running on a similar platform, focusing on bringing back manufacturing jobs to the district, expanding access to affordable healthcare, and increasing funding for public schools. Shelton has a small financial advantage over Dixon-Tatum, but it’s nothing to write home about. Pure toss-up here, but I’m going to go with Dixon-Tatum to win thanks to name recognition from her 2022 run.
SD-26 (Delaware/Randolph Counties, Trump+23) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Speaking of non-redistricting-driven primaries, Republican incumbent Scott Alexander is facing a challenge from cosmetologist Katherine Nunley-Kritsch in this solidly Republican district. Alexander is running as a standard Republican, promising to support small businesses, ensure “government efficiency,” and expand rural broadband. Nunley-Kritsch doesn’t have much of a platform, outside of supporting “parental rights” in education because it’s “common-sence.” Less focus on parental rights, more focus on spelling please. Anyway, Nunley-Kritsch has raised almost no money and already lost to Alexander by a 74-26 margin in 2022, so Alexander should win this one easily.
SD-27 (Wayne/Henry/Union/eastern Franklin Counties, Trump+43) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Continuing the trend of non-redistricting-driven primaries, Republican incumbent Jeff Raatz is facing off against businessman Anthony Lee Jones in this deeply Republican district. Raatz doesn’t appear to be campaigning much, with one of his more recent Facebook posts on his campaign page being a video supporting adding George Strait to this year’s Super Bowl halftime show (that’s how long ago it was). Jones is running as a moderate, promising to avoid the culture war and “responsibly manage” taxpayer dollars. Raatz is the heavy favorite here.
SD-29 (Western Indianapolis area, Harris+14) (D-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):
With Democratic incumbent JD Ford retiring in order to run for IN-05, both parties are holding primaries to replace him in this solidly Democratic district. On the Democratic side, four candidates are running: Pike Township Board President Demetrice Hicks, pastor David Greene, former Indiana Office of Medicaid Policy Deputy Director Kristina Moorhead, and social worker Kevin Short.
Hicks is running as a standard Democrat, wanting to increase funding for public education, cut healthcare costs, and build more affordable housing. He’s backed by several state legislators. Greene is running on a similar platform, wanting to expand funding for public education, promote economic growth that is “rooted in community values,” and expand access to childcare. He’s backed by a few local elected officials. Moorhead is running as a generic Democrat, wanting to cut costs for working families, fight cuts to Medicaid, and protect reproductive freedom. She’s endorsed by the Indiana Chamber of Commerce. Finally, Short is running as a moderate, wanting to crack down on crime, cut taxes, and improve local infrastructure. Moorhead leads the pack in fundraising, with Greene and Hicks lagging behind and Short not raising anything. This one’s going to be close between Moorhead, Hicks, & Greene, but I’m going to go with Hicks to get the win thanks to his institutional support and status as an elected official.
On the Republican side, owing to this area’s status as an ancestrally Republican area, we have multiple former State Senators running! Three candidates are running: former State Senator John Ruckelshaus (who represented a neighboring district from 2016-2020), former State Senator Mike Delph (who represented this district from 2005-2018 when he was defeated by Ford), and former staffer to US Senator Todd Young Roni Young. Ruckelshaus is running as a standard Republican, focusing on stopping utility rate hikes, promising to use taxpayer money “responsibly,” and promising to ban sanctuary cities. He’s backed by the Fraternal Order of Police and several local elected officials. Delph is running as a conservative, promising to focus on tax relief and supporting the Republican gerrymander. He’s endorsed by Governor Braun and Attorney General Rokita. Finally, Ford is running as a moderate. She supports “fiscal responsibility,” expanding healthcare coverage for mental health services, and local government control over state/federal government control. In the finance department, Delph & Ruckelshaus are neck-and-neck, with Ford not raising much money. I’m going to give the nod to Delph here, because he has the institutional support and the benefit of having represented this district in the past.
SD-31 (Fishers/northeastern Indianapolis, Harris+3) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):
With Republican incumbent Kyle Walker retiring from this ultra-competitive district, both parties have primaries tomorrow to replace him. Starting with the Republican side, where four candidates are running: Fishers City Councilwoman Tiffanie Ditlevson, school board president Juanita Albright, businessman Travis Hankins, and attorney Jan Kepley Keefer.
Ditlevson is running as a moderate, wanting to cut taxes, support local control, and improve public safety. She’s backed by several local elected officials, most notably Fishers Mayor Scott Fadness. Albright is running on a similar platform, focusing on lowering inflation, championing “fiscal responsibility,” and touting her work on the school board to improve education standards. She’s endorsed by the Fraternal Order of Police, the anti-abortion Indiana Right to Life, and the Koch-aligned Americans For Prosperity group. Hankins is running as a conservative, opposing abortion, wanting to eliminate the property tax, and wanting to stop illegal immigration. Keefer is running as a standard Republican, promising to support “fiscal responsibility,” oppose abortion, and expand economic development programs. She’s backed by IN-05 Congresswoman Susan Brooks. Keefer leads the pack in fundraising, with Albright & Ditlevson close behind and Hankins not raising much, if any, money. This one should be close between Ditlevson, Albright, & Keefer, but I think Ditlevson wins thanks to her status as a local elected official.
On the Democratic side, four candidates are running: Marion County Sheriff Kerry Forestal, businessman Andrew Dezelan, Indiana Army National Guard veteran Lasima Packett, and real estate agent Catherine Torzewski.
Forestal is running as a moderate, promising to support law enforcement, increase funding for public education, and lower healthcare costs. He’s backed by State Representative Victoria Garcia Wilburn, who represents a good chunk of this district in the State House. Dezelan has a lot of campaign resources on his website (how to vote, the district in a nutshell, etc.), but doesn’t really have much of a platform. Packett is running as a liberal, wanting to increase funding for public education, support the LGBTQ+ community, and support unions. Finally, Torzewski is running as a standard Democrat, focusing on cutting costs, expanding funding for public schools, and passing gun control. Forestal leads the pack in fundraising, with Torzewski lagging behind him, and Packett & Dezelan far behind both of them. Forestal should win thanks to his name recognition as Sheriff and institutional advantage over his opponents.
SD-38 (Vigo/Clay Counties, Trump+28) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Greg Goode, who voted against redistricting, is facing two primary challengers in this deeply Republican district: Vigo County Councilwoman Brenda Wilson and ghost candidate Alexandra Wilson.
Goode doesn’t have much of a campaign platform, but he is campaigning vigorously on his record of getting things done and supporting the 2nd Amendment. He’s backed by a bunch of conservative-leaning groups, most notably the Indiana Farm Bureau and the Fraternal Order of Police. Brenda Wilson is running to the right, calling herself an “America First Republican,” and claiming that the district needs someone who “works with President Trump, not against him.” She’s backed by President Trump, Governor Braun, Lieutenant Governor Beckwith, and Turning Point USA. Finally, the only thing I could find about Alexandra Wilson online is the amount of hoops the Trump/Braun campaign have been going through to try and get her off of the ballot. They’re worried that because she shares the same last name as Brenda Wilson, it’ll confuse voters and give the win to Goode. They’ve offered her jobs in both the Trump & Braun Administrations and tried to knock her off the ballot by claiming that she’s a convicted felon. She’s still on the ballot though, but hasn’t raised any money. Speaking of money, Goode has easily outpaced Brenda Wilson in that department. However, Brenda has been the beneficiary of outside spending that has kept her name out there. I’m going to go bold here and say Goode actually wins thanks to the Wilson/Wilson debacle. Of course, never doubt the power of Trump’s endorsement in primaries, but I think Goode is probably among the best positioned Senators to win despite voting against redistricting.
SD-39 (Sullivan County to Martin County, Trump+55) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Eric Bassler, who voted against redistricting, is retiring, so three Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: former State Representative Jeff Ellington, aide to Lieutenant Governor Beckwith Kristi Risk, and businessman Tanner Bouchie.
Ellington is a conservative, promising to cut taxes, support ICE and the DHS, and increase the use of coal for energy use. He’s backed by President Trump and Attorney General Rokita. Risk is running on a similar platform, focusing on property tax relief, protecting the coal industry, and expanding workforce development programs. She’s endorsed by the anti-abortion Indiana Right to Life, the Indiana Chamber of Commerce, and several local elected officials. Bouchie is running as a standard Republican, supporting expanding the coal industry, promising to support rural EMS workers, and supporting cutting the gas tax. He doesn’t have any major endorsements, but he has complained about the NBA’s Chicago Bulls cutting Jaden Ivey after he went on multiple homophobic tirades, so that should tell you where he stands. Anyway, Risk leads the pack in fundraising, with Ellington and Bouchie close behind her. I think Ellington wins thanks to the Trump endorsement, but he doesn’t really have the strongest electoral history in this district (losing two State House primaries in the last few cycles) and Risk does have better local support/finances. Still though, never doubt the Trump endorsement carrying a weak candidate past the finish line.
SD-41 (Bartholomew/southern Johnson Counties, Trump+32.5) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Greg Walker was one of the biggest opponents of redistricting, giving a passionate speech decrying the efforts after it was passed in one of the State Senate Committees. He was initially not planning to run for re-election, but said that the redistricting fight (where he also accused President Trump of violating the Hatch Act for attempting to sway Republican Senators to vote for redistricting) rejuvenated him. He’s facing off against State Representative Michelle Davis in this deeply Republican district.
Walker is running on his conservative voting record, touting his votes to cut taxes, restrict abortion, and support law enforcement efforts to deport illegal immigrants. He’s backed by former Governor Mitch Daniels, the Mayors of Columbus & Greenwood (the two biggest cities in the district), and several other local elected officials. Davis is running as more of a culture war-type candidate, promising to “protect female athletes,” support the 2nd Amendment, and oppose abortion. She’s backed by President Trump, US Senator Jim Banks, IN-09 Congresswoman Erin Houchin, and Turning Point USA. Walker has a solid financial advantage over Davis, but Davis has benefited from outside spending from TPUSA and Senator Banks. I think Davis wins this one, unseating one of the more outspoken opponents of redistricting in the process.
SD-43 (Dearborn County to Scott County, Trump+52) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Back to the non-redistricting-driven primaries, Republican incumbent Randy Maxwell is facing off against farmer Joe Volk in the Republican primary for this deeply Republican district. Maxwell is running as a conservative, promising to keep taxes low, keep “politics and indoctrination” out of schools, and support law enforcement. He’s endorsed by President Trump and several conservative groups (most notably the Indiana Chamber of Commerce and Fraternal Order of Police). Volk appears to be running to his right, but appears to mostly be running on something called “The 28 Principles of Liberty,” a right-wing document that he claims is “deeply rooted in Holy Scripture.” Either way, he hasn’t raised any money, so Maxwell should win this one easily.
SD-46 (Central Indianapolis, Harris+41) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Democratic incumbent Andrea Hunley is retiring after just one term in this deeply Democratic district, leaving three Democrats to run to replace her: school board member Allissa Impink, data scientist Clif Marsiglio, and progressive activist Sam Glynn.
Impink is running as a standard Democrat, focusing on expanding funding for public education, expanding access to affordable housing, and repealing Indiana’s abortion ban. Marsiglio is running as a progressive, opposing data centers, supporting marijuana legalization, and promising to protect LGBTQ+ rights. Glynn is also running as a progressive, wanting to raise the minimum wage to $15/hour and enact age/term limits for politicians. Impink is crushing both of her opponents in the finance department, so I think she’s probably the favorite to win here.
SD-49 (Posey/western Vanderburgh Counties, Trump+22) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Jim Tomes is facing a primary challenge from medical professional Brandi Durham Pugh in this solidly Republican district in the Evansville area. Tomes doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but he probably doesn’t really need it as Pugh has raised no money for her campaign. She’s mostly attacking Tomes for backtracking on retiring. Tomes should win this one easily.
HD-13 (Benton County to Fountain County, Trump+40) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Two Democrats are running for the party nod in this deeply Republican district: Hillsboro Town Council President/2024 nominee Ed Moyer and engineer Brenna Geswein. Moyer is running as a standard Democrat, promising to protect the local environment, improve government transparency, and increase funding for public education. He also had this on his website before he officially launched his campaign:
Don’t have anything to add to that, just that it’s kind of funny. Anyway, Geswein is running as a standard Democrat, wanting to increase funding for public education, expand access to affordable healthcare, and crack down on rising utility costs. Neither candidate has raised much money, so I think Moyer wins thanks to name recognition from 2024.
HD-20 (Southern LaPorte/northern Starke Counties, Trump+30) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):
Republican incumbent Jim Pressel is facing off against conservative activist Juanita Haney in the Republican primary for this deeply Republican district. Pressel is running on his conservative voting record, specifically touting his efforts to crack down on illegal immigrants becoming truck drivers and support first responders. He’s backed by President Trump and the Fraternal Order of Police. Haney is mostly running on attacking Pressel for being insufficiently conservative, claiming that Pressel is too open to data centers and for hiking vehicle taxes. Pressel has outpaced Haney in the fundraising department and should be the favorite to win here.
On the Democratic side, two candidates are running: nonprofit director Laura Liskey and progressive activist Alicia Firanek. Liskey doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but she does support increasing funding for public schools and cutting property taxes. Firanek also doesn’t have a major campaign presence online, but in the rare stuff I could find about her, she appears to be a progressive focused on fighting corruption. Pure toss-up here, but I’m going to go with Liskey to win.
HD-22 (Kosciusko County, Trump+53) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Craig Snow is trying to fend off a challenge from truck driver Daniel Koors in this deeply Republican district. Snow doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but he’s been a solidly conservative vote in the legislature. Koors also doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but he does vehemently oppose illegal immigrants from operating trucks. Koors has only raised $60 for his campaign, so Snow should win this one easily.
HD-27 (Lafayette, Harris+7) (D-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
This one’s a bit of an interesting one, Democratic incumbent Sheila Klinker is running for re-election in this solidly Democratic district, a re-election she says will be her final one. Two Republicans are running for the right to take her on, Tippecanoe County Commissioner Tracy Brown and environmental technician/2024 nominee Oscar Alvarez. Brown, who calls Klinker a friend of his, is running as a moderate. He supports increasing teacher pay, increasing local control, and hiring more doctors. Alvarez doesn’t have much of a platform, but he’s attacking Brown for having an unfair advantage by also being the Chairman of the Tippecanoe County Republican Party. Brown should win this one, setting up one final match against his friend in November in what will probably be the nation’s friendliest legislative matchup this year.
HD-28 (Western Hendricks County area, Trump+40) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Jeff Thompson is facing off against nurse practitioner Sheila Zielinski in the Republican primary for this deeply Republican district. Thompson doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, publicly being known in Indiana for being “quiet and introverted.” He has been a reliably conservative vote in Indianapolis though. Zielinski is running as a conservative, promising to protect local control, expand access to affordable housing, and cut property taxes. Thompson has a wide financial advantage over Zielinski and should be fine here.
HD-29 (Noblesville, Trump+17) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Two Democrats are running in this solidly Republican district: consultant Coumba Kebe and businessman Devon Wellington. Kebe is running as a standard Democrat, wanting to strengthen consumer protections, expand access to affordable healthcare, and increase funding for public education. She’s backed by the liberal 314 Action group. Wellington is running on a similar platform, wanting to expand funding for public education, crack down on rising utility costs, and expand workforce development programs. Wellington leads Kebe in the fundraising department, but not by a ton. It’s hard to tell the favorite here, but I’m going to give Wellington the slight advantage. Mostly because it seems like she’s the more active campaigner of the two.
HD-30 (Kokomo area, Trump+31.5) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Michael Karickhoff is retiring, leaving two Republicans to run to replace him in this deeply Republican district: Kokomo Common Council President Ray Collins and teacher Paula Davis.
Collins is running as a conservative, focusing on opposing abortion, supporting law enforcement, and attracting more businesses to Indiana. He’s backed by US Senator Jim Banks, Kokomo Mayor Tyler Moore, and several other local elected officials. Davis is also running as a conservative, supporting “parental rights,” promising to defend the 2nd Amendment, and promising to enforce immigration laws (but promising to support legal immigration). She’s endorsed by the anti-abortion Indiana Right to Life and the Koch-aligned Americans For Prosperity groups. Both candidates are neck and neck in fundraising, so I’m going to give the nod to Collins thanks to his institutional support being stronger than Davis’s support.
HD-34 (Muncie, Harris+4) (D-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
With Democratic incumbent Sue Errington retiring, the Republicans are hoping to flip Muncie red for the first time in decades. They’ll choose between two candidates: former Deputy Mayor of Muncie Richard Ivy and conservative activist Randall McCallister. Ivy is running a vague campaign, mostly focusing on improving government transparency, supporting seniors and veterans, and expanding youth opportunities. McCallister is running as a right-winger, promising to support small businesses, keep “woke ideology” out of schools, and crack down on crime. Both candidates are neck and neck in fundraising, so this one’s a pure coin flip. I’m going to go with McCallister to win though.
HD-36 (Anderson area, Trump+13) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Two Democrats are running for the Democratic nod to take on Republican incumbent Kyle Pierce in this Republican-leaning district: Anderson Housing Authority Director Kim Townsend and community activist Nouhad Melki. Townsend is running as a standard Democrat, supporting expanding access to affordable housing, attracting more businesses to Anderson, and expanding access to affordable healthcare. Melki is running a vague campaign, mostly wanting to cut costs and just enact “change.” Townsend has easily outpaced Melki in the fundraising department though, with Melki not raising any money. Townsend is the favorite for sure.
HD-37 (Northern/eastern Hamilton County, Trump+12) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Two Democrats are running for the chance to take on Republican incumbent/State House Speaker Todd Huston in this Republican-leaning seat: businesswoman Lauren Cole and pharmacy technician Joel Levi. Cole is running on a vague platform of bringing people together. On the other hand, Levi is running as a standard liberal, supporting cutting utility costs, increasing public education funding, and removing limits on Medicaid. He’s backed by Run for Something and Moms Demand Action. Levi also has a decent financial advantage over Cole, so I think he’s the favorite here.
HD-38 (Carroll/Tipton Counties area, Trump+48) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Heath VanNatter is facing a challenge in the Republican primary from farmer Mark Hufford in this deeply Republican district. VanNatter isn’t running a very high-profile campaign, mostly touting his efforts to expand job opportunities, cut regulations, and support small businesses. Hufford is running as a conservative, wanting to shrink the size of the government, cut taxes, and oppose abortion. He hasn’t raised much money though, so VanNatter should win this one.
HD-40 (Eastern Hendricks County, Trump+12) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Gregory Steuerwald is facing a primary challenge from businessman Sid Mahant in this Republican-leaning seat in suburban Indianapolis.
Steuerwald is running on his conservative voting record, touting his votes to cut taxes, support local schools, and increase funding for law enforcement. He’s backed by Governor Braun (despite Steuerwald voting against redistricting) and the Fraternal Order of Police. Mahant is mostly running by attacking Steuerwald’s length of time in office, saying that his 18 years in office is too long and that he’s bought by PACs and utility companies. He’s also attacking Steuerwald for being too harsh on immigration (Mahant is an immigrant himself). Mahant has faced questions over his political loyalties though, mostly because he donated to a Democratic State Representative in 2021. He does have one big advantage over Steuerwald though, self-funding. Mahant has loaned his campaign over $500k, while Steuerwald has raised a healthy $170k for his campaign so far. I think the power of incumbency outduels the power of money though, so Steuerwald is the favorite for now.
HD-44 (Montgomery/Putnam Counties, Trump+49) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent (and son of IN-04 Congressman Jim Baird) Beau Baird is facing a challenge from real estate agent Clint Cooper in this deeply Republican district. Baird doesn’t have a campaign presence online, but he’s been a standard Republican vote in the legislature. Cooper is running as a conservative, opposing data centers, attacking Baird for supporting solar panels, and supporting the 2nd Amendment. He’s backed by State Representative Craig Haggard, who’s running against Beau’s father Jim for Congress. Baird has a wide financial advantage over Cooper here. In the battle of the Bairds vs Haggard & Cooper, I expect both Bairds to win.
HD-45 (Greene/Sullivan Counties area, Trump+55.5) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
In a rematch of one of the closest 2024 Republican primaries, Republican incumbent Bruce Borders is facing off against Knox County Commissioner Kellie Streeter.
Borders, who moonlights as an Elvis impersonator
(which makes him the second Elvis impersonator in Indiana politics, which isn’t a lot, but it’s weird that it’s happened twice), doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but he’s had a very conservative voting record and enjoys the backing of President Trump. Streeter, who lost by just 300 votes to Borders in a race that also involved SD-39 candidate Jeff Ellinton, is mostly running on her local experience as Knox County Commissioner. She also supports expanding local control, rebuilding infrastructure, and supporting law enforcement. She’s backed by the Indiana Farm Bureau. Borders has a financial advantage over Streeter and I think he’ll win thanks to the power of incumbency and the Trump endorsement.
HD-46 (Ellettsville to southern Vigo County, Trump+31) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Bob Heaton, who helped Larry Bird lead Indiana State to the NCAA College Basketball Championship in 1979, is facing a primary challenge from school principal Tom Arthur in this deeply Republican district. Heaton has no campaign presence online, but he’s been a reliably Republican vote in Indianapolis. Arthur is running as a conservative, wanting to expand workforce development programs, balance the budget, and cut regulations for businesses. Arthur hasn’t raised much money, so Heaton’s incumbency should give him the win here.
HD-48 (Northern Elkhart County, Trump+28) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Two Democrats are running in this deeply Republican district: journalist Carl Stutsman and accountant Emily Yaw. Stutsman is running as a generic Democrat, wanting to increase public education funding and lower the cost of living. Yaw is running on an even more vague platform, mostly just wanting the government to “get back to working for the people.” Neither candidate has raised much money, so I’m going to go with Stutsman winning in a coin flip.
HD-49 (Eastern Elkhart County, Trump+29) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Three Democrats are running in this deeply Republican district: businesswoman Monica Garbaciak, college professor Michelle Milne, and community activist Susan Lawson. Garbaciak is running as a generic Democrat, focused on lowering costs and improving access to resources. Milne is running on a similar platform, focusing on moving past “divisiveness” and preventing tax dollars from going to “special interest groups.” She’s backed by the local branch of the IUOE. Lawson is also running as a generic Democrat, promising to restore “accountability” and bring “humanity” to the state legislature. Milne is the only candidate here to raise much money, so I think she’s the favorite here.
HD-51 (LaGrange/Steuben Counties, Trump+47.5) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Tony Isa is facing a primary challenge from businesswoman Theresa Steele in this deeply Republican district. Isa is a conservative, touting his support for “family values,” the 2nd Amendment, and law enforcement. Steele is running as a right-winger, wanting to shrink the size of the government, opposing abortion, and “defending medical liberty.” She’s also against the building of a casino in the local area. Isa has a wide financial advantage over Steele, so incumbency should get him the win here.
HD-52 (DeKalb County area, Trump+47) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Ben Smaltz is facing off against teacher Eve Peters in the Republican primary for this deeply Republican district. Smaltz doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but he’s been a reliably conservative vote in the legislature. Peters wants to improve school standards and support veterans & farmers. She hasn’t raised much money, so Smaltz should win this one easily.
HD-56 (Wayne County, Trump+33) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
With Republican incumbent Bradford Barrett retiring, three candidates are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: Wayne County Sheriff Randy Retter, police officer Adam Blanton, and businessman Peter Zaleski. However, Blanton withdrew from the race back in March. He will remain on the ballot though.
Retter is running as a standard Republican, promising to improve school/public safety, support “fiscal responsibility,” and expand access to mental health services. Zaleski is mostly running on his business experience, saying that it’s a good background to have for a state legislator. Retter has easily outpaced Zaleski in the fundraising department though and should win thanks to that and name recognition from his time as Sheriff.
HD-57 (Plainfield to northern Johnson County, Trump+32) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Craig Haggard is retiring in order to run for IN-04, four candidates are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: former Indiana Utility Regulatory Commissioner Wes Bennett, Morgan County Republican Party official Tina Turner, conservative activist Greg “No Bull” Knott, and Salvation Army official Rob Stiles.
Bennett is a conservative, promising to “fight for the unborn,” defend the 2nd Amendment, and support first responders. He’s backed by the Indiana Professional Fire Fighters union and several local elected officials. Turner is running on a similar platform, touting her pro-life views, promising to defend the 2nd Amendment, and supporting school choice. She’s endorsed by Lieutenant Governor Beckwith. Knott is running on his “NO BULL” platform, which is essentially a list of conservative ideals including slashing property taxes, cutting government jobs, and lowering healthcare costs. Stiles is running on a vague platform of “getting things done,” most notably wanting to expand property tax relief. Bennett leads the pack in fundraising, with Turner behind him, and Knott/Stiles not raising much money. I’d say Bennett is the favorite, but I wouldn’t count out Turner.
HD-58 (Greenwood, Trump+32) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):
With Republican incumbent Michelle Davis retiring in order to run for State Senate, three Republicans are running to replace her in this deeply Republican district: former State Representative John Young, police officer Ed Brickley, and minister John Reed.
Young is running as a standard Republican, focusing on cracking down on crime, cutting taxes, and promoting “responsible” growth. He’s backed by State Treasurer Daniel Elliott. Brickley is running as a conservative, promising to “defend faith, family, & personal freedoms,” keep “political agendas” out of schools, and protect the 2nd Amendment. He’s endorsed by the Indiana Farm Bureau and the Fraternal Order of Police. Reed is running as a right-winger, promising to support “traditional family values,” the 2nd Amendment, and cutting taxes. He’s backed by several local elected officials, the anti-abortion Indiana Right to Life, and the Koch-aligned Americans For Prosperity. Brickley leads the three in fundraising, with Young & Reed lagging behind him. This one probably comes down to either Brickley or Reed, but I’m going to go with Reed winning. He’s got better institutional/grassroots support than Reed, but Reed’s money has kept him in the race here.
On the Democratic side, two candidates are running: nonprofit executive Michelle Hennessee Sears and businessman Eric Reingardt. Sears calls herself a fiscal conservative and social liberal, touting her support for unions and the “spirit” of the 2nd Amendment. She’s also called Lieutenant Governor Beckwith a “loudmouth,” which I think even a decent amount of Republicans in the state would agree with. Reingardt is also running on a unique platform. He wants to cut the state income tax and remove taxes on buildings, while wanting to institute a Land Value Tax. Neither candidate has raised any money, so this one’s a pure toss-up. I’m going to go with Sears to win.
HD-60 (Southern Morgan County area, Trump+49) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Peggy Mayfield is facing two opponents in tomorrow night’s primary: firefighter Mike Moore and perennial candidate David Waters. Mayfield has no campaign presence online, with her campaign website last being updated all the way back in 2014! She has been a solid Republican vote in the legislature though. Moore touts his commitment to “service, family, faith, & community,” but that’s about it. Waters has not updated any of his campaign pages since October of last year, so he’s not really putting any effort into this run. Mayfield is also the only candidate to raise any money, so she’s the heavy favorite to win.
HD-61 (Bloomington, Harris+61) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
After dozens of open seat primaries and Republican incumbents facing primaries, we finally have a Democratic incumbent facing a primary! That’s because Democratic incumbent Matt Pierce is facing a challenge from progressive activist Lilliana Young in this deeply Democratic district covering the college town of Bloomington (as a Fighting Illini fan, I refuse to say anything nice about the Hoosiers). Pierce is running as a standard Democrat, promising to create an economy that “works for everyone,” expand access to affordable healthcare, and “protect our democracy and freedom of speech.” Young (who would be Indiana’s first ever openly transgender state legislator) is running to his left, wanting to abolish private school vouchers, enact a rent freeze & build more housing, and raise the state’s minimum wage. She’s backed by several progressive grassroots groups. Pierce has a monetary advantage over Young and should be favored thanks to incumbency, even though I bet a lot of the district is more in tune with Young’s platform.
HD-63 (Daviess/Martin/western DuBois Counties, Trump+52) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):
Republican incumbent Shane Lindauer is retiring, leading to two Republicans running to replace him: DuBois County Clerk Amy Kippenbrock and doctor Richard Moss.
Kippenbrock is mostly running on her tenure as County Clerk, touting her efforts to strengthen “election integrity,” and support veterans. Moss, who came in third in the IN-08 primary in 2024, doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but he does want to cut taxes & regulations, ban foreign ownership of Indiana land, and enact penalties for employers who employ illegal immigrants. Kippenbrock has a huge financial advantage over Moss, who hasn’t used any self-funding like he did in his Congressional run. I think Kippenbrock wins this, but Moss’s name recognition from 2024 carrying him to a win shouldn’t be counted out.
On the Democratic side, three candidates are running: Daviess County Democratic Party Chairwoman Tiffanie Arthur, engineer Adam Mann, and businessman Anthony Bolen. Arthur is running as a standard Democrat, wanting to increase funding for public schools, build more affordable housing, and lower utility costs. Mann supports the building of solar panels, while opposing data centers. Finally, Bolen wants to fight back against “government overreach,” cap utility costs, and legalize marijuana. Arthur & Mann lead in fundraising, with Bolen lagging behind them. I think Arthur wins this one thanks to her status as the Party Chair of the biggest county in this district, but it’s a Democratic primary in a deeply Republican district, so it’s essentially a crapshoot.
HD-70 (Harrison/southern Washington Counties, Trump+46) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):
Republican incumbent Karen Engleman is retiring, leading to two Republicans running to replace her: Harrison County Republican Party Chairman Scott Fluhr and businessman John Colburn.
Fluhr is running as a conservative, touting his efforts to help elect President Trump (Harrison County gave him 72% of the vote) and protect “faith, family, & freedom.” He’s backed by US Senator Jim Banks, IN-09 Congresswoman Erin Houchin, outgoing Representative Engleman, and the anti-abortion Indiana Right to Life group. Colburn is also running as a conservative, promising to protect “parental rights” in education, abolish the state income tax, and oppose abortion. He’s also against capital punishment, because at least he’s consistent with his “pro-life” views. Fluhr has a wide financial advantage over Colburn and should be the favorite to win here.
On the Democratic side, three candidates are running: teacher/2024 nominee Sarah Blessing, nonprofit director Jerry Finn, and realtor Tamyra Persinger-Andres. Blessing is running as a standard Democrat, wanting to increase funding for public schools, “strengthen” rural communities, and support local businesses. She’s backed by the southern Indiana chapter of Indivisible. Finn is running as a liberal, wanting to expand access to childcare, strengthen local healthcare, and expand funding for public education. Persinger-Andres is running as a standard Democrat, promising to protect local farmers, expand funding for public education, and improve local infrastructure. Finn leads the pack in fundraising, with Persinger-Andres lagging behind him, and Blessing not raising much money. I’d say this one comes down to Finn and Blessing, with Finn winning thanks to his monetary advantage. Blessing winning based on name recognition from 2024 wouldn’t shock me however.
HD-71 (Jeffersonville/Clarksville, Trump+0.3) (D-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Two Republicans are running for the party nod to challenge Democratic incumbent Wendy Dant Chesser in this ultra-competitive district outside of Louisville: Floyd County Councilman Dale “DM” Bagshaw and conservative activist James McClure. Bagshaw doesn’t have much of a campaign platform online, but he’s appeared at multiple GOP events, so he’s definitely campaigning. McClure wants to eliminate the current property tax system and replace it with a one-time sales tax on real estate transfers, audit the IDEC, and stop data centers from being built. Neither candidate has raised much money, so I think Bagshaw wins thanks to his recognition from being on the County Council.
HD-72 (Floyd County, Trump+12) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):
Independent/former Republican incumbent Edward Clere (he left the party in January after years of being the most moderate member of the caucus) is retiring, leaving two Republicans running to replace him in this Republican-leaning district: former Floyd County Commissioner Shawn Carruthers and US Navy veteran Darrell Neeley. Carruthers is a self-professed “Christian conservative” and says that he’s guided by his Biblical beliefs. That means he’s against abortion, pro-”religious freedom,” and against boys in girls’ sports (funny, I don’t remember that passage in the Bible). Neeley is running a vaguely conservative campaign, mostly focused on his service in the Navy and his opposition to taxes. He’s backed by several elected officials in Floyd County. He also has a wide financial advantage over Carruthers, so I think he’s the favorite to win here.
On the Democratic side, three candidates are running: River Hills Economic District Director Cory Cochran, socialist activist Nichole Jones, and attorney Michelle “Shelly” Henry. Jones is on the ballot, but she did withdraw, so it’s essentially a two-person race between Cochran and Henry. Cochran is running as a standard Democrat, wanting to cut utility rates, expand funding for public schools, and improve local infrastructure. He’s backed by several local elected officials. Henry is running a bit to his left, touting her opposition to data centers, support for cutting utility costs, and support for expanding public school funding. She’s backed by the IBEW. Both candidates are neck-and-neck in fundraising, so I’m going to go with Cochran to get the win thanks to his institutional support.
HD-73 (Eastern Bartholomew/Shelby Counties area, Trump+48.5) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Jennifer Meltzer is facing a challenge from US Air Force veteran Edward Comstock in this deeply Republican district. Meltzer is a conservative, touting her support for the 2nd Amendment, opposition to abortion, and support for “parental rights” in education. Comstock is also a conservative, touting his opposition to solar & wind farms, and promising to protect local farmers. Meltzer has a decent financial advantage over Comstock and Comstock already lost to Meltzer by a 75-25 margin in 2024, so Meltzer should be fine here.
HD-81 (Northern Fort Wayne, Trump+24) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):
Republican incumbent Martin Carbaugh is facing off against real estate agent David Mervar in the Republican primary for this deeply Republican district. Carbaugh doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but he’s been a solid conservative vote in the legislature. Mervar calls himself the “True Republican” candidate, wanting to push an even more extreme abortion ban, return to paper ballots, and defend the 2nd Amendment. He does have one major problem though, fundraising. I kid you not, he’s only raised $6 in the last quarter of campaigning. We’re talking literal pocket change here. Yeah, Carbaugh should win this one easily.
On the Democratic side, two candidates are running: project manager Sharon Wight and businessman Chad Clevidence. Wight is running as a liberal, wanting to improve local infrastructure, expand funding for public education, and protect the LGBTQ+ community. Clevidence wants to cut “wasteful spending” and shrink the debt. Wight is the only candidate to have raised money, so I think she’s going to win.
HD-94 (Northwestern Indianapolis, Harris+66) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Democratic incumbent Cherrish Pryor is facing off against real estate agent Andre Sisk in the Democratic primary for this deeply Democratic district. Pryor doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but she’s been a solid Democratic vote in the legislature. Sisk is running as a moderate, focusing on public safety, supporting a property tax freeze for seniors, and supporting the building of more affordable housing. He also has used a lot of AI for his campaign on Facebook, so the slop runs rampant here. Anyway, neither candidate has raised much money here, so Pryor should win this one.
HD-95 (Lawrence area, Harris+48) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Democratic incumbent John Bartlett is facing off against two opponents in the Democratic primary in this deeply Democratic district: Indianapolis City Councilman Keith Graves and Lawrence City Councilman Tyrell Giles. Bartlett is running on his legislative record, touting his votes to increase oversight on utility companies, expand access for voters, and raise pay for volunteer firefighters. Graves doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online and only launched his run after being accused of s*xual assault back in July of last year. Giles wants to legalize marijuana, raise the state minimum wage to $15/hour, and improve local infrastructure. Bartlett leads the three in fundraising, with Giles behind him and Graves lagging behind both. I think Bartlett wins, but Giles has been running a good campaign, so don’t count him out.
HD-97 (South-central Indianapolis, Harris+13) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Democratic incumbent Justin Moed is facing a primary challenge from progressive activist Sarah Shydale in this solidly Democratic district. Moed is running as a standard liberal, wanting to improve local infrastructure, increase funding for public education, and support the LGBTQ+ community. Shydale is running as a progressive, supporting raising the minimum wage to $15/hour, building more affordable housing, and expanding Medicare. Moed has easily outpaced Shydale in the fundraising department, so he should be favored to win another term.
And that’s it for this edition of Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch. I’ll be back tomorrow to cover the big Michigan SD-35 special election and go over ratings launches that have happened over the last month. Until then, I’ve been Uncrewed/Chris (you can follow me on Twitter @Uncrewed, same on Bluesky!) and don’t forget to stay awesome!