State Legislative Election Watch- 2026 Oregon Primary Preview
Covering all of the state legislative primaries going down in Oregon tomorrow!
STATE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION WATCH- 2026 Oregon Primary Preview
INTRO:
Hello everyone and welcome to Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch! I’m Uncrewed/Chris and this is your one-stop-shop to everything you need to know about state legislative elections from around the country. We’ve got a whopping six states holding their primaries on Tuesday, and we’ve already covered three of them (Alabama, Kentucky, & Idaho), and now we’re on to Oregon. So, without further ado, let’s get to it!
SD-03 (Medford/Ashland area, Harris+12) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
With Democratic incumbent Jeff Golden retiring from this Democratic-leaning district, five Democrats are running to replace him: school board member Jim Crary, healthcare consultant Denise Krause, nurse practitioner Cristian Mendoza Ruvalcaba, attorney Tonia Moro, and Medford City Councilman Kevin Stine.
Crary wants to raise taxes on alcohol, give Oregon citizens $1,000 in tax relief, and expand funding for infrastructure improvement. Krause is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand access to healthcare, expand access to affordable housing, and cut costs. She’s backed by several local unions. She’s also faced scandal over the last few weeks as she was accused of covering up sexual abuse from one of her consultants to an underaged boy. The Jackson County (where Medford & Ashland are) Democrats unanimously voted to suspend any future funding to Krause, so if she wins the primary here she’s not getting any help. Mendoza Ruvalcaba is a liberal, wanting to build more housing, fight for universal healthcare, and fight the Trump Administration’s immigration policies. He’s backed by several local elected officials. Moro is a liberal, promising to defend the district’s “freedoms” from the Trump Administration, support local unions, and defend the environment. She’s backed by outgoing Senator Golden and several local elected officials. Stine is a standard Democrat, promising to support Southern Oregon University (which is in Ashland), expand funding for homeless services, and expand childcare programs. He’s backed by several former local elected officials. Mendoza Ruvalcaba leads the pack in fundraising by a fair amount, with Moro and Krause behind him, and Crary/Stine lagging behind everyone else. I think Mendoza Ruvalcaba wins this one, mostly because having such a big financial advantage (almost double the amount of money as his next closest opponent) and some decent institutional support should push him over the finish line. I wouldn’t count out Moro though, especially if Golden’s endorsement means a lot here.
SD-06 (Linn/eastern Lane Counties, Trump+22) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
With Republican incumbent Cedric Hayden banned from running again after walking out on too many legislative sessions, three Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: State Representative Jami Cate, school board member Nicole De Graff, and farmer Jack Tibbetts.
Cate is a standard Republican, touting her efforts in the State House to stand up for local farmers, hold state agencies accountable for not being “fiscally responsible,” and protect senior citizens. She’s backed by a bunch of local elected officials. De Graff is running on a similar platform, focusing on cutting costs, improving public safety, and expanding “parental choice” in education. Tibbetts is a conservative, promising to cut taxes, “secure” Oregon elections, and oppose abortion. He’s backed by several right-wing Republican State Representatives and several local elected officials. Tibbetts and Cate are neck-and-neck in fundraising, with De Graff barely raising $1k. I think Cate’s name recognition from being State Representative gets her the win here, but Tibbetts could win if voters in this district are looking for a more right-wing pick.
SD-11 (Northern Salem area, Harris+5) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
The Democrats are very eager to flip this ultra-competitive, Republican-held seat, especially after Republican incumbent Kim Thatcher was banned from running again after walking out on too many legislative sessions. They have to figure out their nominee first, picking between two candidates tomorrow night: former State Representative Teresa Alonso Leon and Salem City Councilwoman Virginia Stapleton.
Alonso Leon is running on a vague platform of supporting working families & small businesses, promising “safe & welcome” communities, and expanding social safety nets. She’s backed by OR-05 Congresswoman Janelle Bynum and several local elected officials (including HD-22 State Representative Lesly Munoz, who represents half of this district). Stapleton is a liberal, focusing on expanding access to affordable housing, expanding access to healthcare (calling it a right, not a privilege), and standing up to ICE. She’s backed by the Marion County Democratic Party, the Working Families Party, a bunch of local unions (most notably the AFL-CIO) and several local elected officials. Stapleton has a wide financial advantage over Alonso Leon and should be the favorite to win here when combining that with her institutional support. Alonso Leon does have a solid base of support in the northern part of the district (which she used to represent in the State House), but Stapleton is just running the better campaign right now.
SD-15 (Hillsboro area, Harris+25) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Democratic incumbent Janeen Sollman is facing a primary challenge from two opponents in this deeply Democratic district: teacher Myrna Munoz and businesswoman Nelly Donis-Purcell.
Sollman is a standard Democrat, promising to defend Oregon from the Trump Administration, defend abortion rights, and cut costs. She’s backed by US Senators Ron Wyden & Jeff Merkley, OR-01 Congresswoman Suzanne Bonamici, most of her colleagues in the state legislature, a lot of local elected officials, and a bunch of unions. She’s really going all out to keep her job and she’ll probably need it, because Munoz is giving her the toughest fight of her career. Speaking of Munoz (who is the sister of HD-22 Representative Lesly Munoz), she’s a progressive. She’s promising to protect Oregon’s natural resources (namely opposing data centers), protect Oregon from “federal overreach,” and expand access to healthcare. She’s backed by the Working Families Party, the Sierra Club, several local unions (most notably the AFL-CIO), and several local elected officials (including her sister). She’s also backed by several groups that promise to protect the area’s “rural character,” which might be a red flag if Munoz is more aligned with the NIMBY factions of these groups instead of the anti-data center factions of them. She’s also a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, so this could be a big win for that group if she wins here. Donis-Purcell has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money.
This one will be tight, as Sollman & Munoz are neck-and-neck in fundraising and having their respective moderate & left-wing camps lined up tight behind them. In the end, I think Munoz’s anti-data center stance will prove to be a winner here, where community pushback over data centers has been more and more prevalent as of late. I definitely would not count out Sollman though, as her institutional support is very powerful and the presence of a third candidate on the ballot could hurt Munoz.
SD-16 (Northwestern Oregon, Trump+3.5) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):
With Republican incumbent Suzanne Webber banned from running again after walking out on too many legislative sessions (can you tell that almost every Republican in the Senate has done this), both parties have primaries to replace her in this Republican-leaning district. Starting with the Republicans, where three candidates are running: Clatsop County Commissioner Courtney Bangs, businessman Tripp Dietrich, and engineer Frank Mansfield.
Bangs is a standard Republican, focusing on protecting local natural resources, cutting red tape for housing, and defending the 2nd Amendment. She’s backed by outgoing Senator Webber, State Representative Darcey Edwards (who represents the Republican half of this district, as the other half is controlled by a Democrat in HD-32, more on that later), several local elected officials, and several forestry-focused special interest groups. Dietrich is running as a conservative, promising to defend the 2nd Amendment, shrink the size of the government, and protect local resources. He also notably touts that he’s a “strong supporter” of President Trump, which might come back to bite him in November if he wins here. Mansfield is a standard Republican, focusing on cutting taxes, cracking down on crime, and supporting school choice. Dietrich and Bangs are neck-and-neck in fundraising, with Mansfield not raising much money. I think Bangs wins this one thanks to her institutional support and status as a local elected official, but I’m not counting out Dietrich winning if the district’s primary base wants a more conservative candidate.
On the Democratic side, three candidates are running: former appointed State Senator Rachel Armitage, nurse Aaron Dickie, and tax consultant Jordan Gutierrez. Armitage is a moderate, focusing on bringing more healthcare workers to the district, building more housing, and improving local infrastructure. Dickie has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Gutierrez (who ran for State House in HD-31 (which covers half of this district) in 2024) also doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online (outside of an article where he claims AI will cause chaos with Oregon elections thanks to the Trump DOJ) and hasn’t raised any money. As such, I think Armitage wins this given that she seems to be the only candidate actually running a campaign.
SD-17 (Bethany to downtown Portland, Harris+62) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Democratic incumbent Lisa Reynolds is facing a primary challenge from nonprofit official Autumn Sharp in this deeply Democratic district. Reynolds is a standard liberal, touting her work to pass a child tax credit, protect reproductive/gender-affirming care, and crack down on gun violence. She’s backed by US Senators Ron Wyden & Jeff Merkley, OR-01 Congresswoman Suzanne Bonamici, OR-03 Congresswoman Maxine Dexter, Governor Tina Kotek, Portland Mayor Keith Wilson, and a bunch of unions. Sharp is running as a moderate, promising to improve public safety, expand treatment for homeless residents, and cut regulations for small businesses. Reynolds has dominated Sharp in fundraising, so she should be fine here, but it’s interesting that she really broke out all the big guns to back her.
SD-26 (The Dalles to central Clackamas County, Trump+7) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Two Democrats are running for the party nod in this Republican-leaning district: businesswoman Nicole Bassett and Sandy city official Matthew Favro. Bassett is a standard Democrat, focusing on expanding job opportunities, protecting rural hospitals, and protecting local natural resources. She’s backed by the League of Conservation Voters and the Hood River County Democrats. Favro opposes data centers, opposes the gas tax, and promises to support small businesses. He’s raised no money for his campaign and doesn’t have a campaign presence outside of a Ballotpedia blurb, so Bassett should win this one.
HD-03 (Grants Pass area, Trump+25.5) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Dwayne Yunker is facing a primary challenge from Grants Pass City Councilman Seth Benham in this deeply Republican district.
Yunker is a right-winger, promising to defend the 2nd Amendment, oppose abortion, and expand school choice. He’s backed by several of his state legislative colleagues and several grassroots conservative groups. Benham is running as a more standard conservative, focusing on cutting red tape for businesses, cutting regulations on housing, and supporting law enforcement. He also has a slight financial advantage over the incumbent. Despite that, I think incumbency (and probably being more in tune with the primary base of the district) carries Yunker over the finish line here. Benham’s status as a local elected official might push him over the finish line, but I think Yunker still wins this one.
HD-07 (Springfield, Harris+12) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
With Democratic incumbent John Lively retiring, three Democrats are running to replace him in this solidly Democratic district: union organizer Ky Fireside, attorney K.C. Huffman, and Springfield City Councilman Kori Rodley.
Fireside is a progressive, promising to stand up against ICE, fight for universal healthcare, and support the Green New Deal. They are supported by the Democratic Socialists of America, the Working Families Party, and several local unions. Huffman wants to improve local education and attract more businesses to the district. Rodley is running as a standard Democrat, wanting to raise the minimum wage, improve community safety, and build more housing. She’s backed by OR-04 Congresswoman Val Hoyle, former OR-04 Congressman Pete DeFazio, several local elected officials, and a bunch of unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Rodley has a solid financial advantage over Fireside, with Huffman not raising any money. I will admit though that Fireside has probably run the better campaign, as they are barnstorming the district in a way that Rodley really hasn’t. I think Rodley wins this one thanks to institutional support and name recognition from her time on the Springfield City Council, but Fireside has a very real chance to win here as well.
HD-09 (Northern Coos County to western Lane County, Trump+8) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
With Republican incumbent Boomer Wright retiring, two Republicans are running to replace him in this Republican-leaning district: Coos Bay City Councilman Troy Cribbins and political aide Claire Lynn.
Cribbins is running as a moderate, focusing on expanding local control, keeping tax dollars in the district (instead of going to “Portland bureaucracy”), and cutting red tape for businesses & housing. He’s backed by State Senator Dick Andersen (who represents this area in the Senate) and a bunch of local elected officials. Lynn is running as a standard Republican, focusing on cutting taxes, cracking down on crime, and defending “parental rights” in education. She’s backed by outgoing Representative Wright, 2022 Republican Governor nominee Christine Drazan, several Republican legislators, and the Oregon Farm Bureau. Lynn has a wide financial lead over Cribbins. I think Lynn wins this one, but a Cribbins win thanks to local support from his time on the Coos Bay City Council wouldn’t surprise me.
HD-11 (Linn County, Trump+39) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
With Republican incumbent Jami Cate retiring in order to run for State Senate, two candidates are running to replace her in this deeply Republican district: Lebanon Mayor Ken Jackola and Sweet Home City Councilwoman Angelita Sanchez.
Jackola is a conservative, touting his support for cutting taxes, defending the 2nd Amendment, and opposing abortion. He’s backed by several local elected officials. Sanchez is running as a standard Republican, promising to cut taxes, protect local resources, and cut regulations for businesses. She’s backed by State Senator Cedric Hayden (who represents this area in the Senate), a slew of local elected officials, and several forestry/farm-related special interest groups. Sanchez has a solid financial advantage over Jackola as well. I think Sanchez wins this one. Despite Jackola having a solid voting base in Lebanon, Sanchez has been able to expand her support outside of her home base (Jackola doesn’t boast any major endorsements outside of his city), which should lead to a win tomorrow.
HD-13 (Northern Eugene, Harris+34.5) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Democratic incumbent Nancy Nathanson is facing a primary challenge from teacher Kathy Cantrell-Damewood in this deeply Democratic district. Nathanson is a standard Democrat, focusing on cutting prescription drug costs, building more affordable housing, and fighting climate change. She’s backed by US Senators Ron Wyden & Jeff Merkley and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Cantrell-Damewood has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money, so Nathanson should win this one easily.
HD-14 (Western Eugene area, Harris+24) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Democratic incumbent/State House Speaker Julie Fahey is facing a primary challenge from businessman Erick Glass in this deeply Democratic district. Fahey is a liberal, touting her efforts to create a child tax credit, expand access to reproductive care, and improve local education. She’s backed by US Senators Ron Wyden (who her website calls Rob Wyden) & Jeff Merkley and several unions. Glass has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money, so Fahey should win this one easily.
HD-17 (Southern Marion County, Trump+25) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
With Republican incumbent Ed Diehl running for Governor, three Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: businessman Dan Farrington, Turner City Councilwoman Beth Jones, and truck driver Ron Nalley.
Farrington is a standard Republican, focusing on cutting taxes, supporting law enforcement, and protecting natural resources. He’s backed by outgoing Representative Diehl and several local elected officials. Jones is a right-winger, touting her efforts to oppose abortion (proudly touting several protests she organized), defend the 2nd Amendment, and support school choice. She’s backed by several state legislators and several local elected officials. Nalley doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Jones leads Farrington in fundraising and has better institutional support, so I think she wins this one.
HD-18 (Northern Marion/southern Clackamas Counties, Trump+30) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
With Republican incumbent Rick Lewis retiring, five Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: automotive technician Ben Fisher, businessman Matthew Lawson, farmer Amanda Staehely, school superintendent Bryan Starr, and Hubbard City Councilman Joseph Steininger.
Fisher is a right-winger, opposing abortion, promising to defend the 2nd Amendment, and promising to eliminate “DEI bureaucracy.” He has also shared Alex Jones posts on his Facebook page, claiming that the 2017 Charlottesville Neo Nazi march was actually a false flag from the Southern Poverty Law Center. Lawson has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Staehely is a standard Republican, focusing on cutting taxes, supporting farmers, and expanding local control over education. She’s backed by several agriculture-related special interest groups. Starr is running on a similar platform, promising to protect local farmers, cut property taxes, and stop “Portland’s agenda” from showing up in classrooms. He’s backed by outgoing Representative Lewis, several state legislators, and a few local elected officials. Steininger is a moderate, focusing on expanding local control, improving public safety, and supporting “fiscal discipline.” Staehely leads the five in fundraising, with Starr behind her, Fisher way behind both of them, and Lawson & Steininger not raising much, if any, money. I think Starr wins this one given his institutional support, but Staehely winning thanks to her farm group support wouldn’t surprise me.
HD-20 (Western Salem area, Harris+15) (D-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):
Democratic incumbent Paul Evans is facing a primary challenge from engineer Ruby Clark in this solidly Democratic district. Evans is a moderate, focusing on cutting red tape for small businesses, expanding treatment for homeless residents, and expanding workforce development programs. He’s backed by a bunch of local unions. Clark has no campaign presence online and has raised no money, so Evans should win this one easily.
On the Republican side, two candidates are running: accountant Andrew Fudge and government contractor Alexander Martin. Fudge is a standard Republican, focusing on cutting regulations, improving local education, and “addressing homelessness with accountability.” Martin has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money, so Fudge should be the favorite here.
HD-21 (Keizer/northern Salem, Harris+5) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Kevin Mannix is facing a primary challenge from businessman Art Stevenson in this ultra-competitive district. Mannix is a moderate, touting his efforts to crack down on crime, lower costs, and pass more legislation than any other legislator in the state (despite being in a superminority). Stevenson is running as a standard Republican, promising to improve government transparency, improve public safety, and protect local farmers. He’s raised no money though, so Mannix should win this one easily.
HD-27 (Eastern Beaverton, Harris+50) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
With Democratic incumbent Ken Helm retiring, two Democrats are running to replace him in this deeply Democratic district: school board member Tammy Carpenter and Beaverton City Councilwoman Ashley Hartmeier-Prigg.
Carpenter is a progressive, promising to tax the rich, pass universal healthcare, and support a Green New Deal. She’s backed by the Democratic Socialists of America, the Working Families Party, a bunch of unions (most notably the AFL-CIO), several progressive state legislators, and several local elected officials. Hartmeier-Prigg is a standard Democrat, focusing on cracking down on gun crime, protecting reproductive rights, and protecting the local environment. She’s backed by US Senator Ron Wyden, OR-01 Congresswoman Suzanne Bonamici, OR-03 Congresswoman Maxine Dexter, OR-04 Congresswoman Val Hoyle, OR-06 Congresswoman Andrea Salinas, several state legislators, a bunch of local elected officials, and several unions. Hartmeier-Prigg has a slight fundraising advantage over Carpenter. I think Carpenter wins this one. She has some very impressive fundraising, union support, and some solid institutional support. It’s not as good as Hartmeier-Prigg’s institutional support (which I think might push her over the finish line), but it’s still impressive and that’s why I think Carpenter wins.
HD-29 (Forest Grove/western Hillsboro area, Harris+16) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Democratic incumbent Susan McLain is facing a primary challenge from school board member Mark Watson in this solidly Democratic district.
McLain is a liberal, touting her efforts to stand up to ICE, protect the LGBTQ+ community, and enact an earned income tax credit. She’s backed by US Senators Ron Wyden & Jeff Merkley, OR-01 Congresswoman Suzanne Bonamici, several state legislators & local elected officials, and several unions. Watson is a moderate, wanting to modernize Oregon’s school funding formula, expand economic development, and improve community engagement. He’s backed by the Oregon Chamber of Commerce and several local elected officials. McLain has a decent financial advantage over Watson and should win thanks to incumbency, but Watson’s local support should keep him in this one.
HD-31 (Columbia/western Washington Counties, Trump+12) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Two Democrats are running for the right to challenge Republican incumbent Darcey Edwards in this solidly Republican district: computer programmer Tom Forest and attorney Rebecca Schaleger. Forest is promising to protect rural life, improve local education, and protect local natural resources. Schaleger wants to protect local farmers, improve food security, and generally rise above partisan politics. Pure toss-up here, as neither candidate has raised any money. I’m going to go with Forest to win.
HD-32 (Clatsop/Tillamook Counties, Harris+5) (D-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Democratic incumbent Cyrus Javadi wasn’t always a Democrat. In fact, he won re-election here in 2024 as a Republican by five points! That all changed in September 2025, when Javadi switched parties and became a Democrat, citing Republican anti-tax proposals and conservative infringements on libraries. Now, the Republicans are trying to flip this Democratic-leaning seat back in 2026. They’ll first have to pick their nominee tomorrow, having to choose between two candidates: police officer Adam Dean and computer engineer Christian Honl.
Dean is a standard Republican, promising to crack down on crime, cut taxes, and fight for “parental rights” in education. Honl is also a standard Republican, promising to crack down on crime, cut red tape for small businesses, and improve local infrastructure. He’s backed by neighboring district State Representative Darcey Edwards. Dean has a wide financial advantage over Honl, but I think Honl wins this one given his stronger institutional support.
HD-35 (Aloha/western Beaverton, Harris+38) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Democratic incumbent Farrah Chaichi is facing a primary challenge from nonprofit official Johan Arteaga Cruz in this deeply Democratic district. Chaichi is a progressive, touting her support for single-payer healthcare, wanting to expand protections for renters, and promising to focus on environmental justice. She’s backed by US Senator Jeff Merkley, the Democratic Socialists of America, the Working Families Party, and several local unions. Cruz is running on a vaguely left-wing platform, promising to bring the vantage point of a “common, ordinary person” to the legislature, expand funding for social programs, and protect the working class. He hasn’t raised any money, so Chaichi should win this one easily.
HD-38 (Lake Oswego area, Harris+57.5) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Democratic incumbent Daniel Nguyen is facing a primary challenge from teacher John Wasielewski in this deeply Democratic district.
Nguyen is a standard Democrat, promising to support small businesses, regulate artificial intelligence, and support a public option for healthcare. He’s backed by US Senators Ron Wyden & Jeff Merkley, OR-01 Congresswoman Suzanne Bonamici, OR-03 Congresswoman Maxine Dexter, OR-05 Congresswoman Janelle Bynum, OR-06 Congresswoman Andrea Salinas, Governor Tina Kotek, several state legislators & local elected officials, and a bunch of unions. Wasielewski, who also goes by Waz, is a liberal. He wants to expand funding for public education, fight for rent stabilization, and expand treatment options for homeless residents. He’s backed by the Working Families Party, Our Revolution, the Sierra Club, several local unions, and several local elected officials. Nguyen has a wide financial advantage over Wasielewski. Nguyen should be the favorite here given his fundraising and institutional support, but Wasielewski has some solid progressive support that should keep him in this one.
HD-40 (Oregon City area, Harris+12) (D-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):
With Democratic incumbent Annessa Hartman retiring, both parties have competitive primaries to succeed her in this solidly Democratic district. Starting with the Democrats, who have two candidates running: businessman Charles Gallia and teacher Michael Sugar.
Gallia is a standard Democrat, focusing on protecting healthcare from cuts and improving childcare services. He’s backed by former Governor John Kitzhaber, several local elected officials, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Sugar is also running as a standard Democrat, promising to support small businesses, expand access to affordable housing, and protect Oregon from “federal overreach.” He’s backed by outgoing Representative Hartman, the Clackamas County Democratic Party, the Working Families Party, and a bunch of local elected officials. Both candidates are neck-and-neck in fundraising, so I think Sugar’s institutional support wins this one for him.
On the Republican side, two candidates are running: police officer Adam Baker and businesswoman Sue Leslie. Baker, who lost to Hartman by 200 votes in 2022, is a standard Republican. He’s mostly focused on cracking down on crime, but also wants to “drive down” homelessness, and cut regulations for small businesses. He’s backed by the Oregon Coalition of Police and several state legislators. Leslie is running on a similar platform, promising to cut regulations, crack down on crime, and “restore sanity” to Oregon schools. Baker has a slight financial advantage over Leslie. I think Baker’s name recognition from 2022 and institutional support should be enough to get him the win here.
HD-41 (Milwaukie/Oak Grove/southern Portland, Harris+60) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Democratic incumbent Mark Gamba is facing a primary challenge from data scientist Priyesh Krishnan in this deeply Democratic district. Gamba doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but he’s been a solid progressive vote in the legislature and a member of the Democratic Socialists of America. Krishnan has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. What an exciting primary! Anyway, Gamba should win this one easily.
HD-43 (North-central Portland, Harris+86) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Democratic incumbent Tawna Sanchez is facing a primary challenge from businessman Cye Sterling in this deeply Democratic district. Sanchez is a liberal, focusing on raising the minimum wage, expanding access to affordable housing, and expanding funding for public education. Sterling is a progressive, promising to protect the environment, stop “concentration camps,” and abolish ICE. He has raised no money for his campaign and hasn’t attracted any outside support, so Sanchez should win this one easily.
HD-51 (Central Clackamas County, Trump+19) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):
Appointed Republican incumbent Matt Bunch is running for a full term in this deeply Republican district, but he’s facing a challenge from realtor Dana Hindman-Allen in the Republican primary. Bunch is a conservative, promising to support law enforcement, defend local control, and fight against “extreme woke policies” in schools. He’s backed by State Senator/2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Christine Drazan (who represented this district before Bunch did), several local elected officials, several local unions, and the Oregon Farm Bureau. Hindman-Allen is running as a standard Republican, focusing on protecting seniors, preventing future wildfires, and cutting taxes on businesses. She’s backed by a few local elected officials. Bunch has a wide financial advantage over Hindman-Allen and has way more institutional support, so he should win this one.
On the Democratic side, two candidates are running: nurse Darla Mead and labor economist Joseph Richards. Mead is a liberal, focusing on expanding access to affordable healthcare, protecting the district’s “unique, small-town culture,” and protecting the LGBTQ+ community. She’s backed by the Clackamas County Democratic Party. Richards is a standard Democrat, focusing on lowering the cost of living, growing the local economy, and improving government transparency. He hasn’t raised any money for his campaign, so Mead should win this one.
HD-52 (The Dalles to eastern Multnomah County, Harris+6.5) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):
With Republican incumbent Jeff Helfrich retiring in order to run for State Senate, his Democratic-leaning seat is up for grabs in what’s shaping up to be a very Democratic year. This has set off alarm bells for the Republicans, but both parties have competitive primaries to get through before we can get to November. Starting with the Republicans, where three candidates are running: Wasco County Board Chairman Scott Hege, property manager Robert Fleming, and businesswoman Darcy Lapier.
Hege is a moderate, touting his support for “fiscal responsibility,” promising to stand with law enforcement, and wanting to expand economic development. He’s backed by outgoing Representative Helfrich, the Oregon Coalition of Police, and several local elected officials. Fleming is a conservative, wanting to cut taxes, expand funding for local infrastructure, and oppose gun control. Lapier is probably most “known” for being the ex-wife of actor Jean-Claude Van Damme back in the 90’s. She’s kind of leaning into her Hollywood background too, as her campaign announcement mentions her participation in the 2013 show Rodeo Girls (which can best be described as channel filler) before it mentions any of her campaign priorities. Speaking of those, she wants to cut taxes, support small businesses, and expand access to home ownership. She is currently facing some questions over bankruptcy fraud though:
(Willamette Weekly)
Hege has a huge fundraising advantage over his two opponents and probably has the best name recognition out of anybody here (including on the Democratic side). As such, he should win this one easily.
On the Democratic side, four candidates are running: school board member David Osborn, political aide/journalist Hank Sanders, Cascade Locks City Councilman Bernard Seeger, and political aide/2024 nominee Nick Walden Poublon.
Osborn is a progressive, focusing on expanding access to affordable housing, establishing “healthcare for all,” and pushing back against ICE. He’s backed by the Working Families Party, Our Revolution, the Sierra Club, and several local unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Sanders, who has written several articles for the New York Times, is running as a standard Democrat. He wants to take preventative action against wildfires, expand childcare tax credits, and reduce Medicaid cuts. He’s backed by former Governor John Kitzhaber and several local elected officials. Seeger is running as a standard Democrat, wanting to create regulations to address “bot-boosted online misinformation,” build more affordable housing, and expand economic development. Poublon is a progressive, wanting to increase protections for tenants, expand access to healthcare, and fight climate change. He’s backed by the Working Families Party, several state legislators, and several local elected officials. Sanders leads the pack in fundraising, with Osborn close behind him, Seeger lagging behind both, and Poublon far behind the front. This one is going to be close, but I think Sanders wins this one. I think Osborn and Poublon are going to split the progressive vote, allowing Sanders to win out. You could make an argument for Osborn or even Poublon to win though.
HD-54 (Southern Bend, Harris+34) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Democratic incumbent Jason Kropf is facing a primary challenge from Oregon Disabilities Commissioner Andrew Caruana in this deeply Democratic district. Kropf is running as a standard Democrat, focusing on improving local schools, cutting costs, and expanding access to affordable healthcare. He’s backed by US Senators Ron Wyden & Jeff Merkley, Bend Mayor Melanie Kebler, several local elected officials, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). He also attracted some controversy earlier this year for allegedly intimidating a fellow Democratic State Representative to support a gun control bill he was trying to pass. Caruana is a liberal, promising to stand up against “federal overreach,” protect access to reproductive/gender-affirming care, and support small businesses. Kropf has incumbency and a wide financial advantage on his side, so he should win this one.
HD-57 (Hermiston to northern Jefferson County, Trump+38) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Greg Smith is facing a primary challenge from former Morrow County Commissioner Jim Doherty in this deeply Republican district.
Smith is a conservative, promising to put “family first,” defend the 2nd Amendment, and support “fiscal responsibility.” He’s backed by the NRA and several Republican-aligned special interest groups. He’s also faced an ethics complaint after he applied for a federal grant that raised his salary as the director of a local group. He also has faced questions from State Attorney General Dan Rayfield over Smith allegedly selling one of his broadband nonprofits to local public officials ahead of a data center being built in the area. That enriched Smith, but Smith denied any wrongdoing. Doherty is a standard Republican, promising to improve local water quality, fight government corruption, and expand local control. Smith has a wide financial advantage over Doherty. Despite that, I think Smith’s ethics issues will come back to bite him here, leading to Doherty winning.
And that’s it for this edition of Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch. I’ll be back tomorrow to cover a pair of swing states holding primaries in the form of Georgia & Pennsylvania! Until then, I’ve been Uncrewed/Chris (you can follow me on Twitter @Uncrewed, same on Bluesky!) and don’t forget to stay awesome!