State Legislative Election Watch- June 24th, 2025

Covering all the special state legislative elections/primaries today!

STATE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION WATCH- June 24th, 2025

INTRO:

Hello everyone and welcome to Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch! I’m Uncrewed/Chris and this is your one-stop-shop to everything you need to know about state legislative elections from around the country. We’ve got multiple special state legislative elections going on tonight from all over the country, with both general elections and primaries to cover. So, without further ado, let’s get to it!

ALABAMA SD-05 (Lamar County to western Jefferson County, Trump+74) (R-Held):

With Republican incumbent/State Senate President pro tempore Greg Reed resigning in order to become Alabama’s first-ever Workforce Secretary, his deeply Republican district in northwestern Alabama is now up for grabs in a special election. The Republicans have nominated State Representative Matt Woods, while the Democrats have nominated nonprofit director Ryan Cagle.

Woods is running as a standard right-winger, supporting law enforcement, opposing regulations, and supporting “traditional family values.” Cagle’s running a more populist campaign (you kind of have to as a Democrat in such a deeply Republican district), supporting taxing out-of-state land owners, promising to protect medicaid & rural healthcare, and supporting increasing funding for public schools & teachers. He’s an interesting candidate, but this district is just so Republican that it’d be a miracle if he lost by less than 60 points. Woods is the heavy favorite here.

CALIFORNIA AD-63 (Menifee/Lake Elsinore area, Trump+13) (R-Held):

Republican incumbent Bill Essayli resigned from this solidly-Republican district back in April 2025 in order to become US Attorney for Central California. He’s been in the news a lot recently with all the ICE raids in Los Angeles, but we’re not discussing him today, we’re discussing the race to replace him in the State Assembly. Four candidates are running to replace him: Republican Lake Elsinore City Councilwoman Natasha Johnson, Republican college professor Vincent Romo, Democratic teacher/2024 nominee Chris Shoults, and Libertarian activist Zachary Consalvo.

Johnson is running as a bog-standard conservative, supporting local law enforcement, cutting regulations, and supporting school choice. She’s backed by most major Republicans in the district, including CA-41 Congressman Ken Calvert, Riverside County Sheriff/2026 gubernatorial candidate Chad Bianco, and US Attorney/resigned incumbent Bill Essayli. Romo is running to “shake up” Sacramento, promising increased transparency, protecting “parental rights” in education, and lowered taxes. Shoults is running a vaguely moderate campaign, wanting to bring “common sense” to Sacramento and promising to not to “grandstand.” He’s backed by a bunch of unions and several local Democrats, including CA-39 Congressman Mark Takano. Finally, Consalvo’s running as a standard Libertarian, wanting to do a tax audit on every county/city in the state, supporting an end to the income tax on retired people, and wanting to bring manufacturing jobs to Riverside County.

This one is going to come down to Johnson and Shoults, which means that the only other question is if Shoults is able to hold Johnson to under 50% of the vote and force this election to a runoff in August. I don’t think he will and Johnson will probably crack 50% tonight to get the win outright.

NEW HAMPSHIRE HD-12th Strafford (Somersworth/Rollinsford, Harris+12) (D-Held):

Democrat Dawn Evans resigned this seat (before she was even sworn in!) all the way back in December and we’re just having a special election for it now because New Hampshire moves at the speed of molasses. Anyway, in the race for this solidly Democratic seat, the Democrats nominated Somersworth Town Selectwoman Billie Butler, while the Republicans nominated businessman Ken Hilton.

Butler, who would become New Hampshire’s seventh openly transgender State Representative if she wins, is running as a standard left-wing Democrat. She wants to expand affordable housing, support LGBTQ+ rights, and fight the New Hampshire Republicans from doing “government overreach” in places like libraries and bathrooms. On the other hand, Hilton is running as a right-wing culture warrior. He wants to keep New Hampshire taxes low, defend the 2nd Amendment, and “keep men out of women’s spaces.” While Hilton doesn’t have much of a campaign online, the New Hampshire Republicans have launched a very disgusting website attacking Butler, using photos of her before she transitioned:

The website also claims that Butler wants to push “DEI” & a “radical trans agenda” onto children and fear mongers about her employer potentially being weird with children at parties. Weird is a good way to describe this whole website, but I think desperate is probably the best choice of words here. I think Butler wins this, which would be a pretty good way to cap Pride Month.

FLORIDA SD-15 (Western Orlando, Harris+23) (DEM Primary):

After Democratic incumbent Geraldine Thompson sadly passed away back in February (and after Governor Ron DeSantis dragged his feet on calling a special election), four Democrats have stepped up to try to replace Thompson in this deeply Democratic district: State Representative LaVon Bracy Davis, former State Senator Randolph Bracy, former US Congressman/perennial candidate (at this point) Alan Grayson, and attorney Coretta Anthony-Smith.

Davis is running as a standard Democrat, supporting lowering costs, increasing local business development, and fully funding public schools/increasing teacher pay. She’s backed by several local politicians, most notably FL-10 Congressman Maxwell Alejandro Frost, States Attorney Monique Worrell, and the family of Geraldine Thompson. Bracy (the brother of Bracy Davis) is running a similar campaign to his sister, supporting business development, increasing affordable housing, and strengthening local public transportation. He doesn’t really have any major backers and mostly seems to just be mad at his sister for running against him, saying that “This is a sad day for the Bracy name. My sister choosing to run against me dishonors our father's legacy in every way possible.” Bracy Davis did take the high road though, saying of her brother, “I love my brother, and I wish him well. I'll be running for the people of Senate District 15.”

Family drama aside, we do have two other candidates running. It’s weird to call a former Congressman a perennial candidate, but here we are. After multiple failed runs at Congress, the US Senate, and the state legislature, Alan Grayson has decided to run here in SD-15 (less than a year after coming in third in the neighboring SD-25 primary). He’s running a left-wing campaign (no shock if you remember Grayson’s time in Congress), supporting instituting a “living wage,” expanding medicaid, and offering free state college education. Finally, Anthony-Smith actually has raised the most money out of all four candidates, mostly thanks to a nearly $200k loan from herself. She’s focused on lowering insurance costs, improving public safety, and increasing affordable housing.

I think Bracy Davis’s name recognition/institutional support gets her the win here, but Anthony-Smith has run a pretty aggressive campaign and Bracy’s name recognition keeps him in this (even if he hasn’t really run much of a campaign). We really could get a former Congressman coming in dead last here, which is kind of crazy to think about until you remember how Alan Grayson’s career has gone since he was swept out of office in 2010. He’s really in his Celtics Shaq era:

If you actually want to learn more about Grayson’s career than just it being represented by a washed up Shaquille O’Neal, I highly recommend

Matthew Isbell - MCIMAPS

series about him. Seriously, it’s like five different articles and they’re all very good!

FLORIDA HD-40 (Northern Orlando, Harris+35) (DEM Primary):

With Democratic incumbent LaVon Bracy Davis resigning in order to run for SD-15, her deeply Democratic district in Orlando is up for grabs. The Democrats will pick their nominee for the September special election tonight and they’ll pick between two candidates: political aide RaShon Young and former State Representative Travaris McCurdy.

Young, who worked as Bracy Davis’s chief of staff, is running as a left-wing Democrat. He supports raising teacher pay, establishing more opportunities for “restorative justice,” and expanding protections for LGBTQ+ Floridians. He’s backed by Bracy Davis and pretty much every Democratic state legislator. I will say one thing though, his website misspelled the word endorsement, which, c’mon man. Anyway, McCurdy is running as a standard Democrat, supporting juvenile justice reform, lowering insurance costs, and expanding business development. During his one term in the State House from 2020-2022, he was one of the more aggressive House Democrats in fighting back against Governor DeSantis. He was part of a team that led a sit-in to protest Governor DeSantis’s gerrymander among other things before he lost his primary to a former State Representative by just three points. He’s backed by the SEIU, but trails Young in fundraising.

I think Young’s institutional support and fundraising advantage is enough to give him the win here, but McCurdy’s name recognition keeps him in this. Still though, I think Young edges him out for the win.

And that’s all for this edition of Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch! I’ll be back next week to drop the inaugural State Legislative Election Watch ratings for New Jersey/Virginia. Until then, I’ve been Uncrewed/Chris, you can follow me on Twitter @Uncrewed (same on Bluesky!) and don’t forget to stay awesome!