State Legislative Election Watch- June 10th, 2025 (Special Election Edition)
Covering all the special state legislative elections tonight!
STATE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION WATCH- June 10th, 2025 (June 10th Special Elections Edition)
INTRO:
Hello everyone and welcome to Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch! I’m Uncrewed/Chris and this is your one-stop-shop to everything you need to know about state legislative elections from around the country. We’ve got a lot of state legislative elections tonight, both primaries & special elections. We’ve covered the New Jersey primaries earlier today, so it’s onto all the special state legislative elections going on tonight. We’ve got six in total, so, without further ado, let’s get to it!
FLORIDA SD-19 (Southern Brevard County, Trump+19.5) (R-Held):
With Republican incumbent/hardcore anti-Palestinian State Senator Randy Fine leaving the Senate to join Congress (as Congressman for Florida’s 6th Congressional District), his solidly Republican seat is up for grabs tonight. The Republicans nominated State Representative/former State Senator Debbie Mayfield (who represented this seat from 2016-2024), while the Democrats nominated retail manager/2024 nominee Vance Ahrens.
Mayfield wants to prioritize tax relief if she’s elected, alongside protecting recent reforms to avoid “lawsuit abuse,” and improve the state’s infrastructure. Ahrens, who would be Florida’s first openly transgender State Legislator if she wins, is mostly focused on mitigating economic effects from President Trump’s tariffs. Mayfield has lapped Ahrens in fundraising, but most of that came during her primary battle against fellow Republicans. Mayfield’s a proven overperformer and this district has a wide Republican voter registration advantage, so this should be an easy win for Mayfield.
FLORIDA HD-03 (Santa Rosa County, Trump+55) (R-Held):
Republican incumbent Joel Rudman gave up this seat to make an unsuccessful run for FL-01 earlier this year, so this deeply Republican district is going to get a new Representative. The Republicans nominated Okaloosa County Commissioner Nathan Boyles, while the Democrats nominated US Navy veteran Dondre Wise.
Boyles is running as a standard right-winger, focused on securing the border, lowering costs (blaming Biden for it), and protecting children from “radical ideologies.” Wise is running a very vague campaign, talking about bringing “fresh perspectives” and “dedicated service” to the district. He has a merch page on his campaign website, but no policy list (honestly probably for the best in such a deeply Republican district). Boyles will win this one easily, because if a Democrat is winning a Trump+55 district (and it’s not in a heavily Orthodox Jewish district like we saw in New York City last month), then the sky is falling.
FLORIDA HD-32 (South-Central Brevard County, Trump+20) (R-Held):
With Republican incumbent Debbie Mayfield resigning in order to run for State Senate (see SD-19 above), her solidly Republican seat is up for grabs tonight. The Republicans nominated businessman Brian Hodgers, while the Democrats nominated US Army veteran/2024 nominee Juan Hinojosa.
Hodgers is running as a standard Republican, supporting insurance reform, lowering property taxes, and protecting the local Indian River Lagoon. Hinojosa is running as a standard Democrat, supporting legalizing recreational marijuana, protecting reproductive freedom, and supporting medicaid expansion. Hodgers barely eked out a win in the primary here, only winning by a couple hundred votes. That may seem like a red flag for him in a 2026 primary, but he’ll be fine against Hinojosa tonight.
MASSACHUSETTS HD-3rd Bristol (Western Taunton, Harris+6) (D-Held):
This is definitely the most competitive seat up for grabs tonight and up there with one of the most competitive up all year! This Democratic-held seat became vacant when State Representative Carol Doherty sadly passed away back in February from pancreatic cancer. The Democrats nominated union official Lisa Field to replace Doherty, while the Republicans nominated Taunton City Councilman Larry Quintal.
Field is running as a moderate Democrat, supporting cutting property taxes, expanding opportunities for first-time homebuyers, and fighting for increased government transparency. Quintal is running as a moderate as well, focused on lowering the cost of living, lowering taxes, and wanting to increase local aid to the district. The two have been pretty evenly matched in the fundraising department, with Field barely having more money on hand than Quintal. While this district has been trending to the right in recent years (Biden won it by 17 in 2020), it’s still a decently Democratic district down the ballot. In fact, Doherty never really had any trouble keeping the district after she flipped it in a 2020 special election, never winning it by less than 14 points. Field’s favored here, but maybe lingering anger at Democratic Governor Maura Healey (who even Field has criticized) gives Quintal a shot.
OKLAHOMA HD-71 (West-Central Tulsa, Harris+19) (D-Held):
With Democratic State Representative Amanda Swope resigning in order to take a job in Tulsa Mayor Monroe Nichols’s administration, her solidly Democratic seat in Tulsa is up for grabs tonight. The Democrats have nominated another Native American woman named Amanda to replace Swope, businesswoman Amanda Clinton. Meanwhile, the Republicans have nominated attorney Beverly Atteberry.
Neither candidate has much of a presence online, but Clinton has a DLCC (Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee) page where she promises to stand up to Republican “mismanagement” in the state of Oklahoma. She’s also raised nearly $100,000 for her campaign, while Atteberry doesn’t even have a campaign finance page with the state. Clinton will win this one easily.
OKLAHOMA HD-74 (Owasso area, Trump+42) (R-Held):
Republican incumbent Mark Vancuren resigned from this deeply Republican district in suburban Tulsa in December to take a job with the Tulsa County Government. The Republicans nominated minister Kevin Norwood to replace Vancuren, while the Democrats nominated nonprofit president Amy Hossain.
Norwood is your standard right-winger, promising to champion tax relief, fund infrastructure improvements, and stop the “Green Energy Grift.” Hossain, on the other hand, is much more of a normal Democrat, touting her support for fully funding public education, expanding access to healthcare, and increasing the minimum wage. She’s raised a decent amount of money for a Democrat in such a deeply Republican district too, but Norwood has beaten her in that facet (though not by much). What’s also interesting is that the campaign arm of the House Republican Caucus had to cut Norwood a $5,000 check for this race. Are they seeing something here? Or is this just a precautionary measure? I’m thinking the latter and that Norwood should win comfortably. Expect a decent overperformance though, Tulsa-area Democrats love to do that in special elections.
And that’s all for this edition of Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch! Thank you for joining me for these first two debut editions of the State Legislative Election Watch. I’ll be back next Tuesday for a State Legislative Election Watch covering the Virginia primaries and the remaining June special elections. Until then, I’ve been Uncrewed/Chris, you can follow me on Twitter @Uncrewed (same on Bluesky!) and don’t forget to stay awesome!