State Legislative Election Watch- June 17th, 2025
Covering all the state legislative primaries tonight in Virginia!
STATE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION WATCH- June 17th, 2025
INTRO:
Hello everyone and welcome to this newest edition of Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch! I’m Uncrewed/Chris and this is your one-stop-shop to everything you need to know about state legislative elections from around the country. From primaries to special elections to general election coverage, we’ve got it all! We’ve got a lot of state legislative primaries going down tonight in Virginia, so, without further ado, let’s get right into it!
HD-01 (Northern Arlington, Harris+60) (D-Held) (DEM Primary):
Democratic incumbent Patrick Hope is facing off against two challengers in this deeply Democratic district right outside of Washington D.C.: software engineer Arjoon Srikanth and businessman Sean Epstein.
Hope is running as a standard Democrat, supporting defending workers’ rights, expanding mass transit options, and touting his efforts to expand health insurance coverage in Virginia. He’s backed by several influential unions and the anti-Dominion Energy group Clean Virginia. Srikanth is a bit to his left, mostly touting himself as part of a “new generation” of politicians who will stand up to President Trump. He wants to build more housing, pass a constitutional amendment to protect reproductive rights, and support federal workers who were put out of jobs by the Trump Administration. He’s backed by a few local former elected officials. Epstein appears to be running to the right of both Hope & Srikanth, supporting cutting “waste” in education, implementing universal Pre-K, and making sure abortion is “safe, legal, and rare,” straight out of the Bill Clinton playbook! He’s also attacked Hope for not passing substantive bills, saying that he’ll focus on the actual issues, not “symbolic issues.”
Hope has a wide fundraising lead over his two opponents, but Srikanth has been attacking him for killing a bill that would have protected abortion providers in Virginia (Hope contends that he did it so that vulnerable Republicans wouldn’t have a chance to look moderate, which is probably the most nakedly political thing I’ve seen in recent years). Still though, there are two primary challengers splitting up a potential anti-Hope vote, so I think that Hope wins this one relatively easily.
HD-21 (Western Prince William County, Harris+5.5) (D-Held) (GOP Primary):
This ultra-competitive NoVA district was the tipping point district in 2023. That was when Democrat Josh Thomas eked out a win to keep this district in Democratic hands, only winning by 3.6%, or a smidge under 1,000 votes. Obviously, this makes him a top target for Republicans this year. However, with the environment not looking great for them this year, his district hasn’t really been talked about as much for a flip opportunity.
What’s not helping matters is that there’s a three-way Republican primary here and none of the candidates have really started running a campaign yet. Your three Republican contenders are: businessman Gregory Lee Gorham, US Army veteran Sahar Smith, and attorney Xanthe Larsen. Smith’s the only candidate here with an actual website and she appears to be running as a cultural conservative. She touts her support for President Trump, her participation in anti-abortion activism, and her desire to “rekindle in our nation the love of God, family, and country-especially the Christian heritage upon which our founding fathers built this great land.” She also touts her opposition to “confusing gender ideologies,” just in case you couldn’t tell that she’s a culture warrior through and through. Gorham doesn’t have a website, but he’s appeared in the local news recently, mostly focusing on economic issues. He wants to make sure local data centers (a big issue in Prince William County elections) are properly taxed and he wants to repeal the county’s “Meal Tax” on food/beverages sold in restaurants. Larsen is a ghost candidate, she has no social media presence and hasn’t appeared at any of the district debates.
Given Smith’s actual campaign presence online and her history as a local Republican Party activist, I’m inclined to give her the win here. She’s a terrible fit for the district in a general election with a likely Democratic-favored electorate, but it is what it is. I’m genuinely surprised the Virginia GOP hasn’t put more effort in here honestly, this was the closest Democratic-won district in all of Virginia in 2023!
HD-37 (Lexington/Buena Vista to Craig County, Trump+40) (R-Held) (GOP Primary):
Republican incumbent Terry Austin is trying to fend off a challenge from his right in this deeply Republican district from engineer Austen Schwend.
Schwend says he’s running for two reasons: 1) He wants to expand liberty for future generations, 2) He wants conservatives to go on the offense rather than retreat and go on defense, and 3) He says Terry Austin hasn’t done either of those things. He also wants to increase government transparency, expand school choice, and end “publicly funded leftism” by declaring “leftist philosophies” to be “legally sectarian,” whatever the hell that means. He’s also attacked Austin for supporting the expansion of wind turbines in the district.
Speaking of Austin, he’s actually one of the more bi-partisan Republicans in the House, which is kind of crazy for someone representing a Trump+40 district. He’s been mostly focused on local issues in this primary, touting his efforts to expand emergency radio service in the district and increasing funding for local police departments. Austin’s not taking any chances though, as he’s broken out the big endorsements, with both Governor Glenn Youngkin and VA-05 Congressman John McGuire supporting him against Schwend. Austin also has a huge campaign finance advantage over Schwend, who has only raised a little over $20,000 for his campaign. Austin should win this one relatively easily, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s some conservative protest votes against him.
HD-40 (Salem area, Trump+9) (R-Held) (DEM Primary):
This Republican-leaning district hasn’t been won by the Democrats on this level since the Reagan Administration, but two Democrats are running here anyway for the right to challenge Republican incumbent Joe McNamara in November: businesswoman Donna Littlepage and anti-domestic violence activist Kiesha Preston.
Littlepage is running as a moderate, supporting lowering taxes/increasing investments in businesses, increasing healthcare access for rural Virginians, and supporting protecting reproductive rights. She’s got the slight financial advantage over Preston and has the backing of Roanoke Mayor Joe Cobb. Preston’s running slightly to her left, focusing on expanding housing, curbing gun violence, and protecting reproductive rights. This one’s pretty much a tossup, but I’m going to go with Littlepage to win this one thanks to her slight financial advantage.
HD-46 (Smyth/Wythe/Grayson/western Pulaski Counties, Trump+58) (R-Held) (GOP Primary):
With Republican incumbent Jed Arnold retiring after just one term in this deeply Republican district, two Republicans have stepped up to replace him: political aide Adam Tolbert and Grayson County Supervisor Mitchell Cornett.
Tolbert’s running as a right-winger, promising to establish a Virginia Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), promote President Trump’s “America First Agenda,” and defend the unborn/2nd Amendment. Pretty much every Republican heavy hitter in Virginia has endorsed him. All three statewide elected officials (Governor Youngkin, Lieutenant Governor Seares, and Attorney General Miyares), House Minority Leader Todd Gilbert, retiring Delegate Arnold, and even former Governor/US Senator George Allen have all lined up behind Tolbert.
Cornett’s not dissuaded though, as he’s running on a similarly right-wing platform as Tolbert. Cornett supports protecting the unborn, defending the 2nd Amendment, and supporting small businesses. He also attacked Tolbert for accepting money from APCO, the local electric utility company, promising to stand up to them instead of taking money from them. Tolbert should be favored here, but I’m interested to see if Cornett’s status as a local elected official and his railing against APCO wins him a decent amount of votes. Right now though, I think the institutional support for Tolbert should be enough to push him over the line.
HD-49 (Danville area, Trump+8.5) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP Primaries):
After over 20 years in the State House, Republican incumbent Danny Marshall has called it a career and will be retiring from this Republican-leaning district. He was a really strong incumbent too, only winning by less than 20% once (in 2007), so the Republicans are hoping they can find a strong replacement in this primary (especially because the Democrats might target this seat this year). Two Republicans have stepped up to the plate to replace Marshall: Danville City Councilman Madison Whittle and businesswoman Vanessa Reynolds Scearce.
Whittle’s running as a generic Republican, wanting to cut taxes/regulations, support the 2nd Amendment, and support local farmers. He’s gotten the lion’s share of endorsements here, with retiring Delegate Marshall, House Minority Leader Todd Gilbert, and several local elected officials all backing him. Scearce doesn’t really have any campaign infrastructure up online (outside of a Facebook page where she doesn’t really talk about her positions) and she has raised a pittance compared to Whittle. Whittle’s the big favorite to win here and advance to a competitive(?) November election.
So, who will the Democrats nominate for this potentially competitive election? Well, they’ll choose between two people in the primary tonight: Danville City Councilman Gary Miller and US Marine Corps veteran Jasmine Lipscomb. Miller’s running as a standard Democrat, supporting raising the state’s minimum wage, increasing funding for rural hospitals, and investing more money into public schools. Lipscomb doesn’t really have much of a campaign presence anywhere outside of a Facebook post on her personal page where she calls herself a “dynamic problem solver” who wants the Democratic Party of Virginia to “work more efficiently.” Miller has a wide fundraising lead over Lipscomb, so (combined with his name recognition as a local elected official) he should be favored here.
HD-57 (Short Pump/eastern Goochland County, Harris+9) (R-Held) (DEM Primary):
This is an interesting district to put it lightly. The Democrats were expected to win here in 2023, but that all changed when their nominee was discovered to be performing sexual acts with her husband online for money. In an invasion of privacy, the Virginia GOP mailed (censored) images of it out to voters and Democrats pretty much abandoned the race. They only ended up losing it by two points and the district got even more Democratic on the Presidential level between 2020 & 2024, so Republican incumbent David Owen might be in trouble this year.
Two Democrats are running to send Owen packing: businesswoman May Nivar and businessman Andrew Schear. Nivar is running as a standard suburban Democrat, supporting actions to help small businesses, fully funding public schools, and protecting reproductive rights. Schear’s running on a similar platform, supporting expanding affordable childcare, expanding affordable housing, and investing in public schools. While their platforms are similar, that’s where the similarities end. Nivar is backed by pretty much every major Virginia Democrat, from former Governor Ralph Northam to Congresswoman Jennifer McLellan (D, VA-04) to most state legislators in the area; they're all backing Nivar (alongside influential groups like EMILY’s List). Schear’s only major endorsement comes from Run for Something. Nivar also holds a huge financial advantage over Schear. In fact, she’s almost raised as much money as State Delegate Owen, which is kind of crazy five months before the November election. Nivar should win this one relatively easily, setting herself up for a competitive November election against Owen.
HD-62 (Culpeper/Madison Counties area, Trump+23) (R-Held) (GOP Primary):
Republican incumbent/former VA-07 candidate Nick Freitas is retiring from this deeply Republican district, so we have a two-way Republican primary between businesswoman Karen Hamilton and Madison County Supervisor Clay Jackson to see who will probably succeed him in Richmond.
Hamilton, who’s the wife of another former VA-07 candidate/Trump Administration official Cameron Hamilton, is running as a standard right-winger. She opposes abortion, supports school choice (and proudly touts her career as a “homeschool mom”), and supports law enforcement. She’s backed by retiring Delegate Freitas, House Minority Leader Todd Gilbert, and several local elected officials. On the other hand, Jackson is running a vaguely right-wing campaign. He wants to follow in President Trump’s footsteps in streamlining the federal government by streamlining the state government, shrinking the size of the government, and “help the private sector thrive.” He’s trying to set himself apart from Hamilton by touting his years in local government, arguing that it best prepares him to go to Richmond and get things done. That may be true, but Hamilton’s institutional support should be enough to get her the win here (even though Jackson has raised slightly more money than her).
HD-70 (Northern Newport News, Harris+21) (D-Held) (GOP Primary):
While this district was the site of an insane 2017 election that saw Democrat Shelly Simonds lose by literally drawing the short straw following a tied election, it has since turned dramatically Democratic thanks to redistricting. Simonds won this seat in 2019 following court-mandated redistricting and hasn’t looked back since. Still though, two Republicans are running here to change their party’s fortunes: US Army veteran Hailey Dollar and Republican Party activist Cynthia Scaturico.
Dollar is running as a moderate, supporting lowering taxes, protecting law enforcement, and increasing school funding. Scaturico’s running harder to the right, supporting Virginia’s status as a “right-to-work” state, protecting “parental rights” in education, and wanting to end human trafficking. Neither candidate has raised much money or any major endorsements, but Dollar has come under a bit of scrutiny recently from conservative activists. Why? Old Facebook posts that’s why! She has old Facebook posts supporting the LGBTQ community and even attending drag bingo shows. Hell, she even has old Instagram photos from 2020 showing her (in costume) attending a drag show. To her credit, she’s defended it, saying “The LGBTQ community suffers from some of the highest statistics of suicide and for many years I dedicated my life to the mentorship and resource referral services of providing lifesaving interventions for ANYONE in need. As a Christian woman it is in no way my place to judge anyone in their journey in life nor deny them the right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.” Good morals yes, but probably not good for her chances of winning a Republican primary. Combine that with Scaturico’s status as a local Republican Party activist, I think that Scaturico wins this one.
HD-72 (Nottoway County to northwestern Chesterfield County, Trump+24) (R-Held) (DEM Primary):
This is a deeply Republican district, currently held by Republican incumbent Lee Ware, but we’re covering every state legislative primary on the State Legislative Election Watch, because that’s just who we are! Anyway, two Democrats are running here: attorney Randolph Critzer and teacher Bilal Raychouni.
Critzer is running as a moderate, supporting expanding affordable healthcare, fully funding public schools, and lowering the cost of living. He’s backed by State Senate Majority Leader Scott Surovell and has a wide financial advantage over Raychouni. Speaking of Raychouni, he’s running to the left of Critzer, supporting protecting reproductive rights, expanding rural broadband, and expanding long-term paid parental leave. He’s backed by a few local Chesterfield County officials. This is pretty much a tossup, but I’m going to say that Raychouni’s local endorsements ultimately push him over the finish line.
HD-73 (Western Chesterfield County, Harris+1) (R-Held) (DEM Primary):
This suburban Richmond seat has seen some absolutely insane swings to the Democrats in the Trump era. It backed Trump by 16 in 2016, but then only backed him by 7 in 2020. It all culminated last year when Harris won the district by one point. Does this mean Republican incumbent Mark Earley Jr. is in danger of losing? We’ll see, but first the Democrats have to pick a nominee for November. They’ll choose between former Virginia ACLU legal director/2024 VA-01 candidate Leslie Mehta and businessman Justin Woodford.
Mehta’s running as a moderate Democrat, supporting “pragmatic, common sense leadership,” protecting workers’/reproductive rights, and expanding access to healthcare. Woodford is running a slightly more left-wing campaign, championing his support for fighting government corruption, expanding the social safety net, and fully funding public education. Mehta is backed by former Congresswoman/current Democratic gubernatorial nominee Abigail Spanberger, several sitting state legislators, and several local unions. She also has a wide fundraising advantage over Woodford, which makes me think that she should win this one and advance to an ultra-competitive November election against Earley.
HD-75 (Hopewell/eastern Chesterfield County, Harris+6) (R-Held) (DEM Primary):
Despite representing a Democratic-leaning district, moderate Republican incumbent Carrie Coyner has been a tough candidate to beat. She won by six points in 2023 and that was the lowest margin of victory in her electoral career! Still, this is a Harris+6 district and even strong incumbents lose when their party is facing an unfavorable political environment, so three Democrats have stepped up to challenge Coyner: nurse Dustin Wade, healthcare activist Lindsey Dougherty, and US Army veteran/2023 nominee Stephen Miller-Pitts.
Wade is running as a normal Democrat, supporting fixing the district’s aging infrastructure, expanding mental health/addiction services, and protecting reproductive rights. He’s backed by HD-73 candidate Leslie Mehta and several local nursing organizations. He’s also got the most money out of all three candidates, but Dougherty is hot on his tail in that department. Speaking of Dougherty, she’s similarly running as a left-of-center Democrat, supporting universal Pre-K, raising the state’s minimum wage, and protecting reproductive rights. She has the most impressive group of endorsers, being backed by EMILY’s List and the LGBTQ Victory Fund. Miller-Pitts is running a slightly more left-wing campaign, supporting “common sense” gun safety, protecting reproductive freedom, and going after big pharma. He lacks money and endorsers, but his name recognition from 2023 keeps him in this one.
This one’s a bit hard to predict. Each candidate has one thing that keeps them in contention for the win: Wade has money, Dougherty has outside backing, and Miller-Pitts has name recognition from 2023. If I had to guess, I’d say Dougherty narrowly pulls it off. That EMILY’s List endorsement really does matter in open primaries like this. You can definitely make an argument for either Wade or Miller-Pitts to win though and again, this can really go to any of the three Democrats.
HD-81 (Charles City/eastern Henrico Counties, Harris+34.5) (D-Held) (DEM Primary):
Democratic incumbent Delores McQuinn is trying to fend off a challenge from school board member Alicia Atkins in this deeply Democratic district east of Richmond. McQuinn has touted her record in Richmond of expanding affordable healthcare, raising teacher pay, and “advocating for affordable housing.” Atkins is running a vaguely center-left campaign, touting her support for expanding quality education, protecting the environment, and vaguely supporting “empowering” the people of Virginia. McQuinn has dominated in the fundraising department, while Atkins hasn’t really articulated why McQuinn should be primaried. Combine that with McQuinn’s incumbency (she’s been here since 2008!) McQuinn should be a huge favorite to win.
HD-89 (Western Chesapeake/southern Suffolk, Harris+3) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP Primaries):
With Republican incumbent Baxter Ennis retiring after just one term in this ultra-competitive district, it looks like this district will be a major battleground in November. However, it is June, so we have to get through the primaries first. On the Republican side, two candidates are running to replace Ennis: school board member Mike Lamonea and attorney Kristen Shannon.
Lamonea, who also used to be an ICE agent, is running as a moderate. He supports “parental rights” in education, lowering costs, and supporting law enforcement. He’s backed by retiring Delegate Ennis and the Koch-aligned Americans for Prosperity group. Shannon’s running more to his right, supporting school choice, the 2nd Amendment, and cutting “wasteful” government spending. Lamonea has easily lapped her in fundraising, which means (alongside the institutional support for Lamonea) that Lamonea should be favored here. Still though, whoever wins here is going to be in for a very long, costly November election against the Democrats.
Speaking of the Democrats, they’ll pick between two candidates to run against either Lamonea or Shannon: attorney Kacey Carnegie and community organizer Blaizen Buckshot Bloom, who has both the best name and best campaign logo of any candidate in Virginia this year. I mean, seriously, look at the logo!
Anyway, Carnegie is running as a standard Democrat, promising to invest in local businesses to expand the workforce, support local law enforcement, and fully fund public education. She’s backed by several southeast Virginia state legislators & EMILY’s List and has a wide fundraising advantage over Bloom. Speaking of Bloom, they’re running to the left of Carnegie. They support increasing Virginia’s minimum wage to $17/hour, eliminating the state’s grocery tax, and repeal the state’s right-to-work laws & replace them by enshrining the right to collectively bargain in the state constitution. Carnegie’s fundraising/institutional support should be enough to give her the win here.
HD-97 (North-central Virginia Beach, Harris+8) (D-Held) (GOP Primary):
If the Republicans won this district in 2023, they’d control the House right now. No tiebreakers or anything, if they had just won here, they’d be in control. Instead, they lost it by five points to Democrat Michael Feggans and now they want to win it back. They’ll have to pick one of two Republicans to face Feggans in November though, either former State Delegate Tim Anderson or teacher Christina Felder.
Anderson’s running as a standard right-winger, promising to support law enforcement, school choice, and the 2nd Amendment. He’s backed by pretty much every Virginia Beach Republican there is. From VA-02 Congresswoman Jen Kiggans to Virginia Beach Mayor Bobby Dyer and everyone in-between, they’re all backing Anderson. Where does that leave Felder? Not in a good place. She’s run a very vaguely moderate campaign of promising to be a community leader, supporting the 2nd Amendment, and promising to work across the aisle to get things done. Anderson has demolished Felder in fundraising, so combining that with his institutional support, means that Anderson is the huge favorite to win and advance to what should be a competitive November election against Feggans.
And that’s all for this exciting edition of Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch! I’ll be back next week to cover all the special elections/primaries going down on June 24th, so until then, I’ve been Uncrewed/Chris, (you can follow me on Twitter/Bluesky @Uncrewed) and don’t forget to stay awesome!