State Legislative Election Watch- 2026 Georgia Primary Preview

Covering all of the state legislative primaries going down in Georgia tonight!

STATE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION WATCH- 2026 Georgia Primary Preview

INTRO:

Hello everyone and welcome to Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch! I’m Uncrewed/Chris and this is your one-stop-shop to everything you need to know about state legislative elections from around the country. We’ve got a whopping six states holding their primaries tonight, and we’ve already covered four of them (Alabama, Kentucky, Idaho, & Oregon). Now, we’re on to one of the biggest states holding their primaries tonight, Georgia! So, without further ado, let’s get to it!

SD-01 (Liberty/Bryan/southern Chatham Counties, Trump+14) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this solidly Republican district: Bryan County Democratic Party Chairman Corey Foreman and progressive activist Barbara Gooby. Foreman is a standard Democrat, focusing on expanding Medicaid, expanding funding for public education, and improving local infrastructure. He’s backed by the AFL-CIO and Run For Something. Gooby is a liberal, wanting to raise the minimum wage to a “living wage,” expand access to mental healthcare, and expand voting rights. She hasn’t raised any money though and Foreman has the advantage of already being the Democratic Party Chair of part of this district, so he should be the favorite here.

SD-05 (North-central Gwinnett County, Harris+33) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Sheikh Rahman is facing a primary challenge from progressive activist Robin McCoy in this deeply Democratic district. Rahman, who was the first Muslim legislator in Georgia history, is a liberal. He wants to expand access to healthcare (calling it a human right), fight for voting rights, and raise the minimum wage to $15/hour. McCoy is a progressive, wanting to expand civil rights for vulnerable citizens, pass a “Tenants Bill of Rights,” and protect the LGBTQ+ community. McCoy has raised a decent amount of money, but Rahman’s incumbency should get him the win here.

SD-07 (Western Gwinnett County, Harris+14) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Nabilah Parkes retiring in order to run for Lieutenant Governor, three Democrats are running to replace her in this solidly Democratic seat: State Representative Ruwa Romman, attorney Rahul Garabadu, and teacher Astrid Ross.

Romman (who briefly ran for Governor last year) is a progressive, focusing on lowering housing & utility costs, defending Georgians from ICE, and raising the minimum wage. She’s backed by US Senator Bernie Sanders, GA-04 Congressman Hank Johnson, US Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, several of her colleagues in the State House, the Working Families Party, and the AFL-CIO. Garabadu is a liberal, focusing on lowering costs, protecting the immigrant community, and defending the right to vote. He’s backed by several state legislators. Ross wants to expand access to mental healthcare and expand funding for public education. Garabadu leads the three in fundraising, but Romman got a late start to fundraising because legislators aren’t allowed to fundraise during the legislative session (which ended last month). She still raised over $60k, while Ross has barely raised any money. I think Romman’s institutional support and name recognition gets her the win here.

SD-08 (Lowndes County to Pierce County, Trump+35) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Russ Goodman is facing a primary challenge from businessman Ralph Tyre in this deeply Republican district. Goodman is a standard Republican, promising to cut regulations on small businesses, bring more doctors to rural Georgia, and protect local farmers. Tyre has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money, so Goodman should win this one easily.

SD-10 (Southern DeKalb/northern Henry Counties, Harris+70) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Emanuel Jones retiring in order to run for GA-13, four Democrats are running in this deeply Democratic district: businesswoman Gabrielle Rogers, nurse Kate Denny, former DeKalb County Commissioner Larry Johnson, and data scientist Sylvester Smith.

Rogers is a standard Democrat, focusing on expanding access to affordable housing, expanding economic development, and expanding community policing efforts. Denny is a progressive, focusing on expanding access to childcare, raising the minimum wage, and expanding funding for public education. Johnson is mostly running on his record on the DeKalb County Board, touting his efforts to cut property taxes, improve local infrastructure, and raise salaries for first responders. He’s backed by GA-04 Congressman Hank Johnson, GA-05 Congresswoman Nikema Williams, several state legislators, and several local elected officials. Smith is a standard Democrat, promising to expand youth empowerment programs, clean up blight, and raise salaries for teachers. Johnson leads the four in fundraising, with Denny behind him, Smith further behind her, and Rogers not raising any money. I think Johnson wins this one, but there’s a decent chance he gets under 50% and is forced into a runoff with Denny.

SD-12 (Southwestern Georgia, Harris+14) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Freddie Sims retiring, three Democrats are running to replace her in this solidly Democratic district: economist Edward Brown, Camilla City Councilman Corey Morgan, and firefighter Tracy Taylor.

Brown is a standard Democrat, focusing on expanding economic development, protecting farmers, and expanding Medicaid. He’s backed by outgoing Senator Sims. Morgan is running as a liberal, focusing on fighting poverty, expanding Medicaid, and raising the minimum wage. Taylor, who ran for this district as a Republican in 2020, is promising to work across the aisle and expand Medicaid. Brown has a huge financial advantage over his two opponents and should be favored to win this one. I do think there’s a possibility he’s forced into a runoff, but for now, I think Brown clears 50% tonight.

SD-14 (Northern Atlanta suburbs, Harris+18) (D-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

With Democratic incumbent Josh McLaurin retiring in order to run for Lieutenant Governor, both parties have competitive primaries to replace him in this solidly Democratic district. Starting with the Democrats, who have three candidates running: businesswoman Kay Howell, former Georgia State Transportation Board member Kevin Abel, and attorney Nathalie Kanani.

Howell is a standard Democrat, focusing on expanding access to childcare, protecting “local control” of schools, and reducing prescription drug costs. Abel is a liberal, promising to enact a “progressive tax policy,” expand access to healthcare (which he calls a right), and expand Medicaid. He’s endorsed by several state legislators and several local elected officials. Kanani is running on a similar platform, focusing on improving police transparency, lowering prescription drug costs, and expanding funding for public education. Abel leads the three in fundraising, with Kanani behind him and Howell behind her. I think Abel wins this one, but he could be forced into a runoff with Kanani.

On the Republican side, three candidates are running: businessman Carson McQueen, real estate broker Mike Dvorsack, and community activist Tamara Johnson-Shealey. McQueen is a conservative, promising to eliminate the state income tax, crack down on crime, and remove “woke” from schools. Dvorsack is a moderate, wanting to cut taxes, improve the healthcare system, and expand school choice. Johnson-Shealey wants to take a more “humane” treatment for illegal immigrants and improve tourism. McQueen and Dvorsack are neck-and-neck in fundraising, while Johnson-Shealey hasn’t raised any money. I think McQueen wins this one, as the Georgia Republican base (even in the suburbs) has only gotten more conservative.

SD-15 (Macon County to southern Columbus, Harris+30) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Ed Harbison tried to pull a fast one on everyone by retiring at the last second and installing his son as his successor. Unlike Chuy Garcia, Steve Daines, & Bill Posey, this plan didn’t work and we have a three-way race to succeed Harbison in this deeply Democratic district between State Representative Teddy Reese, US Air Force veteran/Harbison’s son Edward Harbison, and community organizer Alyssa Williams.

Reese doesn’t have a campaign platform outside of touting his community efforts, but he’s been a solid Democratic vote in the State House. He’s also backed by a bunch of local elected officials from all across the district, most notably former Columbus Mayor/2020 US Senate candidate Teresa Tomlinson. The younger Harbison is running as a standard Democrat, wanting to expand access to healthcare, support small businesses, and support veterans. Williams is also a standard Democrat, focusing on expanding access to affordable housing, creating “timely resolutions” for court cases, and improving rural infrastructure. Reese has a wide financial advantage over Harbison, with Williams lagging hard behind both of them. I think Reese wins this one, but could be forced into a runoff if Harbison’s name recognition gets him enough of the vote.

SD-16 (Spalding/Pike/Lamar/southern Fayette Counties, Trump+25) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this deeply Republican district: US Army veteran Pauline Henley and businesswoman Sonya Wimberly Hawkins. Henley wants to expand access to a quality education, expand access to affordable healthcare, and support veterans. Wimberly Hawkins is a standard Democrat, supporting expanding voting rights, expanding Medicaid, and increasing teacher pay. Wimberly Hawkins has a slight financial advantage over Henley. Shot in the dark here, but I’ll go with Wimberly Hawkins to win.

SD-17 (Southern Clayton/western Henry Counties, Harris+53) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Gail Davenport is facing a primary challenge from political aide Duro Haynes in this deeply Democratic district. Davenport is a generic Democrat, promising to promote job creation, improve “economic sustainability,” and protect public education. Haynes, who worked for recently deceased GA-13 Congressman David Scott until he launched his campaign, is a liberal. He wants to lower the cost of living, restore reproductive rights, and make school lunches free for kids. He’s also the Chairman of the Henry County Democratic Party, so that could help him here. What’s not helping him is the fact that he only raised $600 for his campaign, definitely not enough to unseat a 15+ year incumbent. As such, I think Davenport wins this one.

SD-18 (Upson County to western Macon, Trump+22) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

After winning a special election earlier this year to win this deeply Republican seat, Republican incumbent Steve McNeel is facing a primary challenge from one of his special election opponents, conservative activist Eugene Allison. McNeel is a right-winger, promising to cut taxes & spending, support school choice, and defend the 2nd Amendment. Allison doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online and he only took 1% of the vote in the special election earlier this year, so McNeel should win this one easily.

SD-19 (Telfair County to Long County, Trump+53) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

With Republican incumbent Blake Tillery retiring in order to run for Lieutenant Governor, both parties have primaries to replace him in this deeply Republican district. Starting with the Republicans, who have three candidates running: Toombs County Commissioner David Sikes, retired judge Dwayne Gillis, and businessman Travis Hodges.

Sikes calls himself a “Conservative Christian Leader” who will oppose abortion, protect pastors’ right to free speech (I didn’t even know this was an issue), and “ensure leftist ideology is never taught in public schools so we don’t become California.” Buddy, with the way the suburbs are trending blue, I don’t think fighting “leftist ideology” will stop that. He’s backed by several local elected officials. Gillis is a right-winger, promising to protect kids from “radical agendas,” defend the 2nd Amendment, and oppose abortion. He’s backed by several local County Sheriffs. Hodges is an outsider, touting his conservative bonafides while calling himself the “people’s choice” and decrying outside spending. Sikes and Gillis are neck-and-neck in fundraising, while Hodges hasn’t raised much. I think this one goes to a runoff between Sikes and Gillis, but if I have to pick a winner tonight, I’d go with Gillis.

On the Democratic side, two candidates are running: pastor Joshua Wilkerson and progressive activist Eduardo Delgado. Wilkerson is running on a vague platform of supporting inclusivity and believing every voice should count. Delgado is a liberal, focusing on improving education, raising the minimum wage to $15/hour, and limiting corporate ownership of homes. Wilkerson has a slight financial advantage over Delgado. I’ll go with Wilkerson to win, but like most Democratic primaries in this red of a district, it’s a shot in the dark.

SD-23 (Eastern Georgia, Trump+18) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this solidly Republican district: businesswoman Shayna Boston and US Army veteran Tony Ragin. Boston is a standard Democrat, focusing on increasing teacher pay, expanding access to healthcare, and supporting small businesses. Ragin is running on a similar platform, focusing on protecting voting rights, expanding funding for public education, and supporting small businesses. Ragin has a slight financial advantage over Boston. Pure toss-up here, but I’ll go with Boston to win.

SD-24 (Greene County to Columbia County, Trump+37) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this deeply Republican district: nurse Lorraine Thomas and former union president Catie Young. Thomas is running as a standard Democrat, wanting to expand access to healthcare, improve local infrastructure, and strengthen local schools. Young doesn’t have much of a campaign platform, but she does tout her experience as a union president and organizing in said union. Thomas has a slight financial advantage over Young. Another pure toss-up here, but I’ll go with Young’s union experience getting her the win here.

SD-26 (Washington County to eastern Macon, Harris+25) (D-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Two Republicans are running to challenge Democratic incumbent David Lucas in this deeply Democratic district: businesswoman Tracy Wheeler and ghost candidate Nancy Hicks. Wheeler, who ran for a competitive State House seat in 2024 and nearly won, is a conservative. She wants to cut taxes, deport illegal immigrants, and bring more businesses to the district. Hicks has no campaign presence online. Wheeler should win this one easily and it puzzles me why she would run for a solidly Democratic State Senate district when she could have ran for the State House seat she nearly won in 2024. It’s a Trump-won district and has a retiring Democratic incumbent, there’s a very real chance she could have won it if she ran!

SD-27 (Northern Forsyth County, Trump+38) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Greg Dolezal retiring in order to run for Lieutenant Governor, four Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: businessman Carter Patterson, Georgia State Charter School Board Chairman Mike Dudgeon, businessman Marc Martinelli, and police officer Klaus Buck.

Patterson is a conservative, promising to cut taxes, improve local infrastructure, and expand school choice. He also has the weirdest blurb I’ve seen on a candidate’s website so far this year:

It’s a blurb on a page about ending emissions testing for cars (because protecting the environment is woke), but just the phrase “Make Birthdays Great Again” just made my eyes roll. He’s backed by several local elected officials. Dudgeon, who calls himself “BIG MIKE,” touts his efforts to fight fraud, end “woke policies” in schools, and start numerous companies. His campaign logo is literally himself in a silhouette because HE’S SO BIG:

Anyway, he’s backed by the Koch-aligned Americans For Prosperity group. Martinelli is a standard Republican, focusing on expanding the economy, cutting taxes, and supporting law enforcement. Buck is a right-winger, promising to oppose abortion, support term limits, and expand school choice. Dudgeon leads the pack in fundraising, with Patterson lagging behind him, and Martinelli/Buck not raising much, if anything. I think Dudgeon takes first place here, but is forced into a runoff with Patterson in the battle of BIG MIKE vs the birthday car. Truly inspiring choices for Forsyth County.

SD-28 (Eastern Douglas/southern Cobb/Fulton Counties, Harris+51) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Donzella James is facing a primary challenge from engineer Mel Keyton in this deeply Democratic district. James doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but she’s been a solid Democratic vote in the Senate. Keyton has promised to bring an “engineer’s mindset” to the Senate, calling himself an “independent Democrat.” He wants to cut property taxes, fight for transparency for utility rates, and support entrepreneurs. He hasn’t raised any money though, so James should win this one easily.

SD-31 (Paulding/Polk Counties, Trump+29.5) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

Republican incumbent/Majority Leader Jason Anavitarte is facing a primary challenge from engineer Daniel Davenport in this deeply Republican district. Anavitarte is a conservative, touting his efforts to cut taxes, expand workforce development programs, and oppose abortion. Davenport appears to be mostly focused on touting a piece of equipment that he claims will detect tampered votes and change them back to what they were supposed to be:

With Davenport not raising any money for his campaign, maybe this is just a campaign finance strategy to fund his campaign against the Majority Leader? I don’t know, I don’t have a spare $599k to test that theory. Either way, Anavitarte should win this one easily.

On the Democratic side, two candidates are running: corporate trainer Alec Miller and businessman Josh Plancher. Miller is a standard liberal focusing on raising the minimum wage, expanding funding for public education, and introducing a guaranteed paid sick leave program. Plancher is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand funding for public education, expand economic development, and enhance public safety. Miller is the only candidate here to raise money, so I’ll give him the nod.

SD-33 (Central Cobb County, Harris+30) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Michael Rhett is facing a challenge from ghost candidate Lisa Anderson in the Democratic primary for this deeply Democratic district. Rhett doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but he’s been a solid Democratic vote in the Senate. Meanwhile, Anderson has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money, so Rhett is the heavy favorite here.

SD-34 (Western Clayton/northern Fayette Counties, Harris+63) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Kenya Wicks is facing a primary challenge from businessman Gabriel Martin in this deeply Democratic district. Wicks is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand access to mental healthcare, expand Medicaid, and support public safety efforts. Martin is running on a similar platform, focusing on expanding access to mental healthcare, protecting seniors from cybersecurity fraud, and lowering costs. Wicks has a huge financial advantage over Martin and Martin hasn’t attracted any outside support, so Wicks should be fine here.

SD-35 (Smyrna/western Fulton County, Harris+56) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Earlier this year, Democratic incumbent Jaha Howard won a special election to represent this deeply Democratic district. Now, Howard is running for a full term. He has to get through two Democrats in the primary first though: businesswoman Elfreda Desvignes and journalist Erica Denise Solomon. Howard is a standard Democrat, supporting cutting taxes for small businesses, expanding access to healthcare, and expanding access to affordable housing. Desvignes is a liberal, focusing on lowering prescription drug costs, expanding access to affordable housing, and raising the minimum wage to a “liveable wage.” Solomon calls herself a “common sense Democrat” who wants to expand economic development, expand workforce development programs, and improve local infrastructure. Howard has a wide fundraising lead over Solomon, while Desvignes hasn’t raised any money. I think Howard’s newfound incumbency wins him this one.

SD-37 (Western Cobb County, Trump+9) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this Republican-leaning district: businesswoman Darcy Castro and accountant Zach Neville. Castro is a standard Democrat, focusing on cutting costs, expanding funding for education, and expanding access to healthcare. She’s backed by several State Senators. Neville is running on a similar platform, promising to expand Medicaid, raise teacher salaries, and protect reproductive rights. He’s backed by the AFL-CIO and the Cobb County branch of the progressive group Indivisible. Castro has a solid financial advantage over Neville and I think that’ll ultimately be what pushes her over the finish line here. I could see Neville’s union support getting him the win, but for now I think Castro wins.

SD-38 (Western Atlanta to South Fulton, Harris+55) (D-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Two Republicans are running in this deeply Democratic district: teacher Eric Jamal Helvy and US Air Force veteran Gregory Thomas. Helvy is a conservative, promising to protect “election integrity,” expand school choice, and support law enforcement. Thomas, who calls himself “Pop,” is a moderate. He wants to introduce tax credits for residents who go to public universities, expand state-sponsored health services for women and children, and expand funding for farmers. Pure toss-up here as neither candidate has raised more than $30 combined, but I’ll go with Helvy to win.

SD-41 (Central DeKalb County, Harris+63) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Kim Jackson is facing a primary challenge from businesswoman Shenika Maddox in this deeply Democratic district. Jackson is a liberal, focusing on expanding Medicaid, expanding renewable energy production, and protecting the LGBTQ+ community. Maddox is running as a standard Democrat, promising to expand economic development, improve public safety, and protect the environment. Jackson has a huge financial advantage over Maddox, who hasn’t attracted much outside support. As such, Jackson should win this one.

SD-43 (Rockdale/southern Gwinnett Counties, Harris+53) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Tonya Anderson is facing two opponents in the Democratic primary for this deeply Democratic district: retired police officer Donald Ferguson and State Representative Sharon Henderson. Anderson doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but she’s been a reliable Democratic vote in the legislature. Ferguson, not to be confused with the character from Invincible, doesn’t have a campaign platform outside of vaguely promising to “empower change.” Henderson was suspended from the State House back in January after being indicted on unemployment fraud charges in December 2025. She hasn’t done much campaigning, understandably so. Anderson should win this one easily, but I’m curious to see how much of the vote Henderson gets.

SD-44 (Western DeKalb/eastern Clayton Counties, Harris+77.5) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Elena Parent retiring, two Democrats are running to replace her in this deeply Democratic district: State Representative Saira Draper and former State Senator Nadine Thomas.

Draper is a standard Democrat, focusing on protecting voting rights, cutting costs, and taking a cautious look at data centers. She’s backed by outgoing Senator Parent, several state legislators, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Thomas, who was the first Black woman elected to the State Senate back in 1992, is running a vaguely liberal campaign. She wants to protect reproductive rights, expand access to affordable healthcare, and protect civil rights. Draper should be the favorite here, considering her institutional support and name recognition.

SD-46 (Eastern Gwinnett County to southern Athens, Trump+20) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

With Republican incumbent Bill Cowsert retiring in order to run for State Attorney General, both parties have primaries to replace him in this solidly Republican district. Starting with the Republicans, who have three candidates running: attorney Michael Broun, former State Representative Doug McKillip, and Walton County Republican Party Chairman Marc McMain.

Broun, who is the nephew of former Congressman Paul Broun, is a conservative. He wants to take “divisive ideology” out of schools, expand economic development, and eliminate state income taxes. McKillip is a right-winger, promising to “Democrat-proof Georgia,” by passing constitutional amendments to (among other things) ban the state income tax, ban “critical race theory and DEI,” and outlaw sanctuary cities. McMain is a conservative, promising to defend “parental rights,” eliminate the state income tax, and defend the 2nd Amendment. McMain leads the three in fundraising, followed by Broun (McKillip has pledged not to accept donations). However, McKillip has easily outpaced his two opponents in spending, spending over $360k on this campaign. I think this one goes to a runoff, let’s say between McKillip and McMain.

On the Democratic side, two candidates are running: software engineer Ray Smith and Athens Democratic Party Vice Chairman William Gaulden. Smith is a liberal, promising to take on “corporate landlords” who purchase houses, support small businesses, and protect workers’ rights. He’s backed by the Georgia Association of Educators (the biggest teachers union in Georgia). Gaulden is a standard Democrat, focusing on improving school safety, expanding Medicaid, and expanding access to affordable housing. Smith has easily outpaced Gaulden in fundraising, mostly because Gaulden has only raised $275 for his campaign. As such, I think Smith wins this one.

SD-47 (Madison County to eastern Barrow County, Trump+22) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Frank Ginn is facing a primary challenge from attorney Jason Black in this deeply Republican district.

Ginn, who hasn’t updated his campaign website since 2010, is mostly running on his record of service in the Senate. However, outside of a post advertising the beginning of early voting, he’s been pretty quiet online. That’s probably why he’s facing a challenge from Black, who openly calls Ginn “complacent.” Black is a conservative, promising to secure the border, “protect women’s sports,” and defend “constitutional rights.” He’s backed by several local elected officials. He has outpaced the incumbent in fundraising too, with a lot of Ginn’s money coming from gambling groups. As such, I think Black unseats the incumbent here.

SD-48 (Johns Creek/southern Forsyth County, Trump+4.5) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running for the party nod in Georgia’s most competitive State Senate district: businessman Nathan Hombroek and businesswoman Laura Murvartian.

Hombroek is running as a standard Democrat, promising to lower healthcare costs, expand funding for public education, and improve public safety. Murvartian is running slightly to the left of Hombroek, focusing on lowering healthcare costs, protecting reproductive rights, and raising teacher salaries. She’s backed by the AFL-CIO and a bunch of state legislators. Murvartian also has a decent financial advantage over Hombroek. As such, I think Murvartian wins this one and goes on to challenge Republican incumbent Shawn Still (who was one of many indicted for being a fake Presidential Elector in 2020) in November.

SD-51 (Northern Georgia, Trump+64) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Steve Gooch retiring in order to run for Lieutenant Governor, three Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: State Representative Will Wade, attorney Philip Milam, and contractor Steve Shaw.

Wade is a right-winger, touting his efforts to “defend our kids from the woke left,” strip “CRT” from schools, and cut taxes. He’s backed by Governor Brian Kemp, State Agriculture Commissioner Tyler Harper, and a bunch of local elected officials. Milam is a conservative, promising to eliminate the income tax, support rural schools, and defend the 2nd Amendment. He’s backed by several local elected officials. Shaw is running on a vaguely conservative platform, calling himself a “Constitutional Conservative” who promises to “protect our rights” and “defend our freedoms.” He hasn’t raised any money though. Wade has a wide financial advantage over Milam and has better institutional support, so I think he wins this one here.

SD-53 (Northwestern Georgia, Trump+58) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Lanny Thomas was elected to this seat in a special election earlier this year and now wants a full term in this deeply Republican district. He’ll first have to fend off GA-14 Republican Party Chairwoman Denise Burns and businessman Blake Elsberry. Thomas is a standard Republican, focusing on supporting small businesses, cutting taxes, and supporting law enforcement. He’s backed by the NRA and a bunch of local elected officials. Burns is a right-winger, promising to oppose abortion, defend “parental rights” in education, and expand access to raw milk. Yes, the pro-life candidate wants to expand access to something that can kill you, you can make your own joke from that. She’s backed by Turning Point USA. Elsberry is a conservative, focusing on expanding access to rural healthcare, ending the state income tax, and supporting local farmers. Thomas has a solid financial advantage over his two opponents. In the special election here, Thomas got 39% of the vote, Burns got 21%, and Elsberry got 13% (with the remaining vote going to a Democrat). I don’t think Thomas has done anything major over the last two months to shrink his 18 point advantage, so he should win this one.

SD-54 (Whitfield/Gordon/Murray Counties, Trump+55.5) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Chuck Payne is facing two opponents in the Republican primary for this deeply Republican district: businessman Eddie Hall and firefighter James Marty Brown. Payne is a moderate, promising to cut taxes, improve local education, and invest in youth empowerment programs. Hall is a standard Republican, wanting to cut property taxes, expand local control, and protect the local environment. Brown is a conservative, promising to build “America First Economic Strength,” secure the border, and protect “religious freedom.” Payne has a wide financial lead over his two opponents, so he should win this one.

HD-01 (Dade/western Walker Counties, Trump+57) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Mike Cameron is facing a primary challenge from farmer Neal Howell in this deeply Republican district. Cameron is a conservative, promising to oppose abortion, defend the 2nd Amendment, and stop human trafficking. Howell is running to his right, promising to abolish property taxes, mandate the hand counting of election results, and stop immigrants from “ramming their culture down our throats.” I know every time people say this they mean non-white people, but as someone who lives in an area with a lot of Polish-speaking residents, I guarantee you they would not be saying something like this about them. Rant aside, Cameron has heavily outpaced Howell in fundraising, with Howell not really raising much money. As such, I think Cameron wins this one.

HD-02 (Eastern Walker/western Whitfield Counties, Trump+62.5) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Steve Tarvin is facing a primary challenge from US Marine Corps veteran Christian Hurd in this deeply Republican district. Tarvin is a conservative, touting his efforts to cut taxes, support law enforcement, and defend “conservative values” from “the woke, progressive left.” He’s backed by the NRA, the Koch-aligned Americans For Prosperity group, and several local elected officials. Hurd is a right-winger, promising to vote for a “Georgia First” agenda, cut property taxes, and “fight tooth and nail” for the MAHA (Make America Healthy Again, RFK Jr.’s whole thing) agenda. Tarvin has a wide financial advantage over Hurd and should be favored here.

HD-03 (Catoosa County, Trump+54) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Mitchell Horner is facing a primary challenge from Ringgold Mayor Nick Millwood in this deeply Republican district. Horner is a standard Republican, touting his efforts to cut taxes, expand school choice, and reduce “government waste.” Millwood is a moderate, promising to support local control, keep tax revenue in Catoosa County, and lower taxes. He also promises not to “undermine leaders with my personal agenda,” so that’s a shot at the right-wing of the party. The right-wing has fired back though, attacking Millwood with this, um, interesting ad:

Yeah, they got nothing. I take that back, they do have a financial advantage over Millwood, who has been dominated by Horner in that department. I think Horner’s incumbency and fundraising gives him the win, but Millwood’s name recognition definitely keeps him in this one.

HD-04 (Dalton area, Trump+29) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Kasey Carpenter is facing a primary challenge from businessman Jasper Manis in this deeply Republican district. Carpenter doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but he’s been a reliably conservative vote in the legislature. He has been in hot water as of late though, mostly because old photos of him back in 2010 reemerged. No big deal right? Wrong! Because he was wearing blackface!

(Carpenter on the left)

Yeah, he was dressing up as Kanye West and decided to do blackface in the year of our lord 2010. He said he did it out of “respect,” because back then Kanye was still someone some people respected. But, damn it’s an awful excuse, “yeah I did this horribly racist act out of respect!” Anyway, Manis wants to cut property taxes, expand workforce development programs, and break up monopolies. He hasn’t raised any money for his campaign, so Carpenter should win this despite the blackface photo. I’m interested in the protest vote though, because I have to imagine there’s at least somewhat of a penalty for doing blackface right? RIGHT?

HD-09 (Lumpkin/Dawson Counties, Trump+64) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Will Wade retiring in order to run for State Senate, three Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: conservative activist Wayne Rowan, Lumpkin County Commissioner Chris Dockery, and businessman Doug Sherrill.

Rowan calls himself a “fighter for taxpayers,” wanting to give the budget surplus back to the people, freeze property tax home appraisals, and end “illegal labor” from illegal immigrants. He also has a bunch of Impact font memes on his Facebook page, with his one just captioned “Funny??” like even he doesn’t know if it’s funny or not. Dockery is a conservative, promising to reform the property tax system, keep “biological males” out of girls’ sports, and support law enforcement/federal immigration officials. Sherrill is running as a right-winger, promising to crack down on crime, cut taxes, and “crush the woke left once and for all.” He’s backed by several local elected officials (most notably from Dawson County). Dockery leads the pack in fundraising, with Sherrill behind him and Rowan further behind. I think this one goes to a runoff between Dockery & Sherrill thanks to both of them winning their home bases (Lumpkin County for Dockerty and Dawson County for Sherrill) and Rowan taking enough of the vote to prevent anyone from getting over 50%.

HD-13 (Rome area, Trump+31.5) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Katie Dempsey is facing a primary challenge from businesswoman Kristie Miner in this deeply Republican district. Dempsey is a standard Republican, touting her efforts to cut taxes, increase the child tax credit, and cap property tax increases. Miner is a right-winger, promising to only support legislation if it aligns with “God’s word,” the US Constitution, and if it limits government. She’s backed by several “medical freedom” groups. Dempsey has a huge fundraising advantage and incumbency on her side, so she would win this one easily.

HD-18 (Western Paulding County to western Carroll County, Trump+67) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Tyler Smith is facing a primary challenge from businessman Frank Phillips in this deeply Republican district. Smith is a standard Republican, focusing on cutting taxes, cutting regulations for small businesses, and limiting “government overreach.” Phillips is running on a similar platform, promising to cut taxes, defend the 2nd Amendment, and improve the child welfare system. He hasn’t raised a lot of money nor attracted much outside support, so Smith should be fine here.

HD-20 (Southern Cherokee County, Trump+32) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

Republican incumbent Charlice Byrd is facing a primary challenge from businessman Mark Fernandez in this deeply Republican district.

Byrd is a right-winger, promising to support “election integrity,” “end the woke agenda,” and defend “parental rights” by banning gender-affirming care for minors. She’s backed by several “medical freedom” groups. Fernandez is a conservative, promising to support “responsible growth,” cut taxes, and ensure “election integrity.” He’s backed by several local elected officials and state legislators. Byrd has a solid financial advantage over Fernandez, but Fernandez does seem to be attracting a fair amount of support based on his NIMBY leanings in this rapidly suburbanizing district. Despite that, I think Byrd wins thanks to incumbency, but a Fernandez win shouldn’t be counted out.

On the Democratic side, two candidates are running: nonprofit director Jason Tanner and community activist Erik Zeil. Tanner is a liberal, wanting to raise the minimum wage, increase protections for renters, and protect kids from the harmful effects of AI. He’s backed by VoteVets. Zeil doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online and hasn’t raised much money, so Tanner should win this one.

HD-25 (Southern Forsyth County, Trump+12) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

Republican incumbent Todd Jones is facing a primary challenge from businessman Mathew Philip in this solidly Republican district. Jones calls himself a “relentless conservative,” who wants to expand “parental rights,” improve healthcare, and expand funding for law enforcement. Philip is a conservative, promising to expand “parental rights” in education, improve healthcare, and improve “election integrity.” Jones has a wide financial advantage over Philip and should be the favorite here.

On the Democratic side, two candidates are running: nurse/2024 nominee Elaine Padgett and engineer Metin Vargonen. Padgett is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand funding for public education, expand access to healthcare, and protect reproductive rights. Vargonen is a liberal, promising to regulate AI, protect reproductive rights, and raise the minimum wage. Vargonen has a financial advantage over Padgett, but I think Padgett wins here thanks to name recognition from 2024.

HD-29 (Gainesville area, Trump+19) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Matt Dubnik is facing a primary challenge from conservative activist Cody Ewing in this deeply Republican district. Dubnik is a standard Republican, touting his efforts to cut taxes, improve school safety, and support law enforcement. Ewing is a right-winger, promising to eliminate property taxes, enact a bunch of MAHA items, and teach the Bible as “historical content” in schools. Ewing hasn’t raised much money, so Dubnik should win this one easily.

HD-37 (Marietta, Harris+17.5) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Mary Frances Williams is facing a primary challenge from IT professional Graham Bowers in this solidly Democratic district. Williams is mostly running on her record of getting money to the healthcare system, but she’s also been endorsed by several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Bowers is a liberal, promising to fight for workers’ rights, enshrine marriage equality in Georgia law, and expand access to healthcare (which he calls a right). Williams has a huge fundraising advantage over Bowers, who hasn’t attracted much outside support. As such, I think Williams wins this one.

HD-42 (Smyrna area, Harris+34) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Gabriel Sanchez made history in 2024 when he became the first DSA member elected to the Georgia State House by unseating then-Democratic incumbent Teri Anulewicz. Now, the moderates are out for revenge and are running attorney Carlos Vilela to unseat Sanchez.

Sanchez is a progressive, focusing on investing in housing developments, passing a single-payer healthcare system, and raising the minimum wage to $20/hour. He’s backed by several of his State House colleagues (most notably Minority Leader Carolyn Hugley), the Working Families Party, the Democratic Socialists of America, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Vilela is a standard Democrat, promising to cut costs, defend Georgia from “MAGA Extremists,” and cut taxes for the middle class. Sanchez has a decent financial advantage over Vilela. Consider this, Sanchez unseated Anulewicz in 2024 by 14 points. Now, he doesn’t have to challenge an incumbent (and in fact has incumbency on his side) and has a financial advantage over his opponent. Yeah, I think Sanchez wins this one.

HD-47 (Northern Fulton County, Trump+15) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent/State House Speaker pro tempore Jan Jones retiring, three Republicans are running to replace her in this solidly Republican district: businessman Jack Miller, conservative activist Brian Cochran, and businesswoman Phoebe Eckhardt.

Miller is a conservative, promising to slash the income tax, fight for “election security,” and protect the district from “overdevelopment.” He’s backed by outgoing Representative Jones, GA-07 Congressman Rich McCormick, several state legislators, and several local elected officials. Cochran is a right-winger, promising to “end” abortion in Georgia, pass universal school choice, and protect “religious freedom.” Eckhardt is a conservative, promising to improve “election integrity,” support “healthcare freedom,” and crack down on crime. She also claims to have seen 50 “aliens” with suitcases and backpacks standing in line on a street in Atlanta. Those weren’t illegal immigrants Phoebe, those were people waiting for MARTA. Miller leads the pack in fundraising by a wide amount and should be able to win here without a runoff thanks to that and his institutional support.

HD-51 (Southern Roswell/northern Sandy Springs, Harris+19) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Here are just some of the headlines Democratic incumbent Esther Panitch has attracted over the last two years:

Yeah, Panitch is one of the most conservative Democrats in the legislature, almost entirely because of her views on Israel. That’s why it should come as no shock that she’s facing a primary challenge from community organizer Aaron Baker.

Panitch is mostly touting her work in the legislature, touting her efforts to prevent intellectually disabled people from receiving the death penalty, expand gun control, and fight against anti-semitism. She’s backed by several of her colleagues in the State House and several local elected officials. She’s also posted photos of her supporting Jon Ossoff like she didn’t just throw him under the bus and speak glowingly of a potential US Senate run from Republican Governor Brian Kemp less than a year ago. Baker is a progressive, promising to strengthen protections for renters, protect reproductive rights, and raise the minimum wage. She’s also a member of the Democratic Socialists of America. She’s backed by the Working Families Party and several progressive State Representatives.

Panitch is a master at identity politics, heavily touting the fact that she’s the only Jewish woman in the State House and using it to deflect criticism of her record. She can’t use that here though, as Baker is also a Jewish woman. That hasn’t stopped Panitch from trying though, accusing Baker of anti-semitism for attacking her for accepting money from Republican-aligned donors (who happen to be Jewish), saying:

(Atlanta Jewish Times)

It’s the questioning of Baker’s Jewish-ness that really ties this whole together, because Panitch doesn’t really care about it. She just wants to dunk on her opponent for not being a “good enough Jew.” And that’s Panitch in a nutshell, she can’t be criticized on important issues because she’s the “only Jewish woman” in the legislature and when an actual Jewish woman criticizes her, she’s not actually a good enough Jew. By the way, just in this campaign alone, Baker has probably spouted more scripture about her heritage than Panitch has in the last few years, so I wouldn’t be throwing stones in glass houses about someone’s Jewish-ness Representative Panitch.

Rant aside, Panitch leads Baker in fundraising. There is a very real chance that Panitch loses here. You can get away with being a moderate or pro-Israeli candidate in the Democratic Party nowadays. We’ve seen candidates like that win already this year. But you know who we haven’t seen win yet this year? Democrats who attack other Democrats and try to elevate Republicans. I think Panitch would be able to get away with being pro-Israel and even anti-DSA, but it’s her dunking on two popular home state US Senators, praising Trump for invading Iran (which, I don’t know if you’ve heard, IS VERY UNPOPULAR), and musing about endorsing Governor Kemp for US Senate that will cause her heartache tonight. I think incumbency wins it for her, but Baker winning wouldn’t surprise me and probably would be the best outcome of the night here in Georgia.

HD-53 (Western Sandy Springs area, Harris+7) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Alright, onto a less controversial primary! Two Democrats are running to flip this Democratic-leaning seat north of Atlanta: former CDC contractor Beth Fuller and software engineer Tim Dorr.

Fuller is a standard Democrat, promising to expand Medicaid, expand funding for public schools, and crack down on gun crime. She’s backed by several state legislators, EMILY’s List, and the AFL-CIO. Dorr is running on a similar platform, focusing on cutting costs, expanding housing availability, and expanding access to affordable healthcare. Fuller has a wide financial advantage over Dorr and has good institutional support, so she should be the favorite here.

HD-54 (Northern Atlanta, Harris+24) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Betsy Holland is facing a primary challenge from businessman Derrick Tuff in this deeply Democratic district. Holland is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand Medicaid, defend reproductive rights, and increase funding for public education. She’s backed by the AFL-CIO. Tuff is running on a similar platform, promising to fully fund public schools, protect reproductive rights, and protect people with disabilities. Tuff hasn’t raised much money for his campaign and hasn’t attracted any outside support, so Holland should win this one easily.

HD-57 (North-central Atlanta, Harris+61) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Stacey Evans is facing a primary challenge from progressive activist Jeremiah Olney in this deeply Democratic district.

Evans is a standard Democrat, touting her efforts to crack down on price gouging, fight back against the “Trump-Kemp Agenda,” and expand Medicaid. She’s backed by GA-05 Congresswoman Nikema Williams, several state legislators & local elected officials, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Olney is a progressive, promising to raise Georgia’s minimum wage to $20/hour, establish a tenants’ bill of rights, and expand Medicaid. He’s also a member of the Democratic Socialists of America. He’s backed by Atlanta City Councilwoman Kelsea Bond, the first DSA member to ever serve on the City Council. Evans has easily outpaced Olney on the financial side, but this part of Atlanta has become more progressive friendly in recent cycles. I’m still going to give the edge to Evans, but I wouldn’t count Olney out.

HD-58 (Downtown Atlanta, Harris+78) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Park Cannon retiring, four candidates are running to replace her in this deeply Democratic district: nonprofit director Demetria Henderson, community activist Kyle Lamont, community organizer Mathewos Samson, and teacher Edith Ladipo.

Henderson is a standard Democrat, promising to expand access to affordable housing, expand funding for public education, and expand access to affordable healthcare. Lamont is also a standard Democrat, promising to raise teacher salaries, cut property taxes for seniors, and expand Medicaid. He’s backed by outgoing Representative Cannon and several state legislators/local elected officials. Samson is a progressive, promising to legalize rent control, establish medicare-for-all, and raise the minimum wage to $20/hour. He’s also a member of the Democratic Socialists of America. He’s backed by several progressive state legislators, the AFL-CIO, and the DSA. Ladipo doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Samson leads the four in money, with Lamont close behind him and Henderson/Ladipo struggling at the bottom. I think this one goes to a runoff between Samson and Lamont.

HD-61 (Southwestern Cobb/western Fulton Counties, Harris+58) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Mekyah McQueen is facing a primary challenge from businesswoman Grace McClain in this deeply Democratic district. McQueen is a liberal, promising to expand Medicaid, protect LGBTQ+ school students, and restore reproductive rights. McClain has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money, so McQueen is the heavy favorite here.

HD-62 (Southern Atlanta, Harris+82.5) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Tanya Miller retiring in order to run for State Attorney General, four Democrats are running to replace her in this deeply Democratic district: consultant KaVon Arnold, businessman Kenn Collier, realtor Matthew Rinker, and aircraft inspector Willie Roseberry.

Arnold is a standard Democrat, promising to expand access to affordable healthcare, increase funding for public education, and expand workforce development programs. She’s backed by GA-05 Congresswoman Nikema Williams, several local elected officials, and rapper/former Outkast member Big Boi. I’ll keep an eye out to see if Andre 3000 makes a competing endorsement. Collier is a liberal, promising to expand workforce development programs, expand Medicaid, and strengthen community policing efforts. He’s backed by the Working Families Party and several local elected officials. He’s also been the beneficiary of outside spending from sports betting apps, over $350k to be precise. Rinker is a liberal, promising to build more affordable housing, expand access to transit, and expand funding for public education. He’s backed by several local elected officials. Roseberry has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Rinker leads the pack in fundraising (not counting outside spending), but he, Arnold, & Collier are all neck-and-neck. I think this one goes to a runoff between Rinker (who has name recognition from a failed run for Atlanta City Council last year) and Collier.

HD-66 (Northern Douglas County, Harris+44) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Kimberly Alexander is facing a primary challenge from businessman Derrian Smith in this deeply Democratic district. Alexander seems to be more focused on electing other Democrats this primary season, but she’s been a solid Democratic vote in the legislature. Smith is a standard Democrat, focusing on expanding economic development, expanding funding for public education, and expanding Medicaid. He’s raised no money for his campaign, so Alexander should win this one easily.

HD-68 (Union City to western Fayette County, Harris+31) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Derrick Jackson retiring in order to run for Governor (admit it, you didn’t even know he was running for Governor), six Democrats are running to replace him in this deeply Democratic district: community activist Courtney Heard, businessman Jonathan Bonner, former South Fulton City Councilman Mark Baker, nonprofit director Quentin “Coach Q” Pullen, healthcare activist Timoria McQueen Saba, and community activist Jane Williams.

Heard is a liberal, focusing on reforming Homeowners Associations, raising the minimum wage, and raising teacher salaries. Bonner is a progressive, touting his support for medicare-for-all, support for veterans, and opposition to data centers. He’s backed by progressive State Representative Gabriel Sanchez. Baker is a standard Democrat, wanting to cut costs, expand local economic development, and hold HOAs accountable. Pullen (who I refuse to call Coach Q because there’s only one Coach Q to Chicagoans!) is a liberal, promising to expand Medicaid, raise the minimum wage, and support small businesses. He’s backed by VoteVets. McQueen Saba is a standard Democrat, focusing on expanding maternal healthcare, ending hunger, and protecting voting rights. Williams is a liberal, promising to protect voting rights, raise teacher pay, and fight for “environmental justice.” She’s backed by several local elected officials.

McQueen Saba leads the pack in fundraising, with Pullen, Bonner, and Williams close behind her and Baker/Heard not raising much money. This one’s probably going to a runoff and I’ll go with McQueen Saba and Pullen to make the runoff, but you could make a solid argument for any candidate to advance here.

HD-69 (Northern Fayette County, Harris+50) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Debra Bazemore is facing two opponents in the Democratic primary for this deeply Democratic district: businessman Cobie Lyrix Brown and nurse September Cooper. Bazemore doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but she’s backed by the AFL-CIO. Brown is a standard Democrat, focusing on improving community safety, expanding economic development, and expanding workforce development programs. Cooper has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Brown hasn’t raised any money either, so Bazemore should win this one.

HD-70 (Newnan area, Trump+22) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this deeply Republican district: businesswoman Diane Boulai and political aide Pierre Whatley. Boulai is a standard Democrat, focusing on expanding access to mental health care, expanding Medicaid, and expanding access to affordable housing. Whatley is a liberal, focusing on expanding wages, building more housing, and expanding workforce development programs. Neither candidate has raised any money, so I’ll go with Whatley to win here, but it’s a shot in the dark.

HD-71 (Eastern Carroll County, Trump+33) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this deeply Republican district: former Carrollton Housing Authority official Brandolynn Yarbrough and ghost candidate Anna Higgins. Yarbrough is a standard Democrat, focusing on cutting costs, expanding workforce development programs, and expanding access to healthcare. Higgins has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money, so Yarbrough should be the favorite here.

HD-82 (Southern Fayette/northern Spalding Counties, Trump+22) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this deeply Republican district: community organizer/2022 nominee William Harris and teacher Anthony Dickson. Harris is a progressive, promising to protect renters, raise the minimum wage, and introduce reparations. Dickson is also a liberal, wanting to expand Medicaid, protect voting rights, and raise the minimum wage to $20/hour. Dickson hasn’t reported raising any money, while Harris probably benefits from name recognition from his last run, so I think Harris wins this one.

HD-90 (Eastern Atlanta area, Harris+81) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Saira Draper retiring in order to run for State Senate, five Democrats are running to replace her in this deeply Democratic district: progressive activist Bentley Hudgins, former State Representative Howard Mosby, social worker Leisa Stafford, tenant organizer Matt Nursey, and businesswoman Nicole Horn. Horn withdrew from the race last month, but will remain on the ballot.

Hudgins is a progressive, promising to create a universal pre-K program, pass medicare-for-all, and expand tax credits for working families. She’s backed by the Working Families Party, a bunch of state legislators, several local elected officials, and the AFL-CIO. Mosby has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Stafford is running as a standard Democrat, focusing on improving government transparency, expanding funding for public education, and improving community health. Nursey is a progressive, touting his support for medicare-for-all and the Green New Deal. Hudgins has easily outpaced her opponents in fundraising, with no one else even crossing $5k. I think Hudgins wins this one outright tonight, but I could see her forced into a runoff with Stafford.

HD-91 (Southeastern DeKalb/western Rockdale Counties, Harris+61.5) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Angela Moore is facing a primary challenge from businesswoman Stacey Garel in this deeply Democratic district. Moore is a standard Democrat, wanting to cut costs, expand Medicaid, and crack down on gun crime. Garel is running on a vague platform of improving education, expanding access to healthcare, and supporting entrepreneurs. She hasn’t raised much money, so Moore should win this one.

HD-92 (Central Rockdale County, Harris+59) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Rhonda Taylor is facing two opponents in the Democratic primary for this deeply Democratic district: businessman Arthur Kinney and businesswoman Shawn Brown.

Taylor is a standard Democrat, focusing on expanding economic development, improving “community welfare,” and expanding access to affordable healthcare. She’s backed by the AFL-CIO. Kinney is running on a similar platform, promising to support veterans, provide tax relief for seniors, and support law enforcement. Brown is also running as a standard Democrat, promising to cut red tape for small businesses, improve public safety, and expand access to healthcare. Taylor leads the pack in fundraising, but Kinney has also raised a fair amount of money. Brown lags hard behind both of them. I think Taylor wins this one, but Kinney is running a very active campaign and might get a good chunk of the vote here.

HD-94 (Southern Gwinnett County, Harris+50) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Venola Mason won a special election in this deeply Democratic seat earlier this year and now she’s running for a full term. She’s facing four opponents in the primary though: former Snellville Mayor Kelly Kautz, community activist Audrey Lux, doctor Elmore Alexander, and political aide Ikenna Ugwumadu.

Mason is a standard Democrat, focusing on improving education, expanding economic opportunity, and expanding access to healthcare. She’s backed by the Georgia House Democrats and several State Representatives. Kautz is also running as a standard Democrat, wanting to expand access to mental healthcare, expand funding for public education, and expand economic development. She’s backed by a few local elected officials. Lux is a progressive, wanting to raise the minimum wage to $15/hour, defend LGBTQ+ rights, and expand MARTA. She’s backed by the Human Rights Campaign. Alexander is running as a standard Democrat, promising to stop school closures and legalize medical marijuana. Ugwumadu is a liberal, focusing on expanding access to affordable housing, expanding access to childcare, and expanding youth empowerment programs. Earlier this year, Mason took 44% of the vote in the special election, Kautz took 23%, Lux took 16%, and Ugwumadu took 16%. Alexander throws a bit of a wrench into thinking that this will be a repeat, but I think Mason’s still popular enough to win, maybe being forced into a runoff with Kautz or Alexander.

HD-95 (Southeastern Gwinnett County, Harris+60) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Dar’shun Kendrick is facing a primary challenge from two opponents: political aide Zae Brewer and teacher Stacy Marie Johnson.

Kendrick is a liberal, supporting community-centered policing, raising the minimum wage, and criminal justice reform. She’s backed by the AFL-CIO. Brewer is also a liberal, promising to fight for paid family leave, expand Medicaid, and expand funding for public education. He’s backed by Run for Something. Johnson has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Kendrick has a wide financial advantage over Brewer, but Brewer has raised a fair bit of money. Either way, I think Kendrick wins this one.

HD-96 (Norcross area, Harris+26) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Arlene Beckles is facing a primary challenge from nonprofit director Tanjina Islam in this deeply Democratic district.

Beckles is a standard Democrat, focusing on expanding Medicaid, expanding tenant protections, and defending reproductive freedom. She’s backed by several local elected officials and the AFL-CIO. Islam is a progressive, wanting to establish a single-payer healthcare system, expand funding for public education, and raise the minimum wage. She’s backed by several progressive grassroots groups. She has a solid financial advantage over Beckles as well. I think Beckles wins this one given her incumbency/local support, but Islam’s fundraising has been very impressive and her grassroots support could push her to the win here.

HD-97 (Peachtree Corners/Duluth area, Harris+23) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Ruwa Romman retiring in order to run for State Senate, two Democrats are running to replace her in this deeply Democratic district: businessman Jacques Laurent and businessman Jyot Singh.

Laurent is a standard Democrat, focusing on cutting costs, defending voting rights, and protecting civil rights. Singh is a liberal, promising to defend immigrants from the Trump Administration, cut costs, and expand Medicaid. He’s backed by GA-04 Congressman Hank Johnson, several state legislators, and the Working Families Party. Singh has a huge financial advantage over Laurent, so he should win this one here.

HD-98 (Southwestern Gwinnett County, Harris+33) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Marvin Lim is facing a primary challenge in this deeply Democratic district from the person he succeeded in the State House, former State Representative Brenda Lopez Romero.

Lim is mostly running on his voting record, touting efforts to protect the environment, stand up to the Trump Administration, and improve road safety. He’s backed by the Working Families Party and the AFL-CIO. Lopez Romero is a liberal, promising to raise the minimum wage, cut taxes on the working class, and expand Medicaid. Lim has a solid financial advantage over Lopez Romero, but not by a ton. I think Lim wins this one, as Lopez Romero does have name recognition, but hasn’t been able to consolidate support behind her. Losing the WFP in particular has to sting for her campaign.

HD-99 (Suwanee area, Harris+6) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

The Democrats are hoping to flip this Democratic-leaning seat in northern Gwinnett County this November, but they have to first pick their nominee tonight. They’ll pick between two people: businesswoman/2024 nominee Michelle Kang and engineer Shelly Abraham.

Kang is a liberal , focusing on cutting property taxes, expanding access to childcare, and expanding Medicaid. She’s backed by several state legislators & local elected officials, the Working Families Party, & the AFL-CIO. Abraham, who calls himself a “fighter,” wants to build more community housing, cut costs, and expand Medicaid. Kang has a huge financial advantage over Abraham and has the benefit of name recognition from 2024, so she should win this one.

HD-100 (Northwestern Gwinnett County, Trump+19) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent David Clark retiring in order to run for Lieutenant Governor, two Republicans are running to replace him in this solidly Republican district: former State Representative Josh Clark and businessman Edwin Duncan.

Clark is a conservative, promising to “fight for liberty,” cut regulations, and fight for “faith and family values.” Duncan is running on a similar platform, promising to cut taxes, “protect girls’ sports,” and crack down on crime. Clark has a wide financial advantage over Duncan and Clark probably still has name recognition from his time in the House (serving from 2010-2014), so he should be the favorite here.

HD-108 (Lillburn area, Harris+9) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Jasmine Clark retiring in order to run for GA-13, two Democrats are running to replace her in this solidly Democratic district: nonprofit director Joshua Pressley and businessman Rahim Asani.

Pressley is a liberal, promising to expand access to healthcare (calling it a human right), defend immigrants from ICE, and cut costs. He’s backed by outgoing Representative Clark and several other state legislators. Asani is a standard Democrat, focusing on cutting costs, expanding Medicaid, and expanding access to childcare. Both candidates are neck-and-neck in fundraising, so I’ll give Pressley the edge thanks to institutional support.

HD-109 (West-central Gwinnett County, Harris+35.5) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Dewey McClain retiring, two Democrats are running to replace him in this deeply Democratic district: attorney Juan Estrada and community organizer Nico Parra

Estrada is a progressive, promising to work towards a single-payer healthcare system, raise the minimum wage, and enshrine a tenant bill of rights. Parra is also a progressive, promising to raise the minimum wage to $20/hour, raise taxes on the rich, and fight for paid parental/sick leave. He’s backed by Run for Something. Estrada leads Parra in fundraising and has better institutional support, so I think he’ll win this one. Either way, this district is about to get a progressive Representative.

HD-113 (Northern Newton County, Harris+45) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With suspended Democratic incumbent Sharon Henderson retiring in order to run for State Senate (see SD-43 above), two Democrats are running to replace her in this deeply Democratic district: former Newton County Commissioner Alana Sanders and nonprofit director Karla Daniels Hooper.

Sanders is a standard Democrat, promising to expand access to affordable housing, fight for HOA accountability, and expand funding for public education. She’s backed by the Working Families Party. Hooper, who lost to Henderson by 30 points in 2024, is a liberal. She wants to raise the minimum wage, fight “corporate housing greed,” and expand Medicaid. Sanders has a wide financial advantage over Hooper, so she should be favored here. I wouldn’t count out Hooper though, taking 35% of the vote against an incumbent is pretty impressive (even if said incumbent was later indicted on unemployment fraud charges, the voters didn’t know that back then!).

HD-114 (Morgan/eastern Newton/southern Walton Counties, Trump+37) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Tim Fleming retiring in order to run for State Secretary of State, two Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: businessman Brett Mauldin and businessman Wendell McNeal.

Mauldin is a conservative, promising to eliminate the state income tax, stand up against the “woke agenda,” and defend the 2nd Amendment. He’s backed by several state legislators and local elected officials. McNeal is running on a similar platform, promising to eliminate the income tax, deport illegal immigrants, and fix local traffic congestion. McNeal has a wide financial advantage over Mauldin, but Mauldin does have better institutional support. This is probably going to be close, but I’ll give the edge to McNeal, because he has seriously dominated Mauldin in fundraising.

HD-117 (Southern Henry County, Harris+49.5) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Mary Ann Santos is facing a whopping four primary opponents in her bid for a second term in this deeply Democratic district: businesswoman Kim Thomas Smith, businesswoman Tiffany Walker, US Navy veteran Vincent Williams, and US Air Force veteran Tony Brown.

Santos is mostly running on her legislative record, touting her efforts to deliver tax relief for working families, improve local infrastructure, and raise teacher salaries. Thomas Smith is a liberal, wanting to pass rent control, expand funding for senior services, and expand funding for public education. She’s backed by the AFL-CIO and has received significant outside spending (over $300k) from sports betting groups. Walker (who calls herself “Madam Walker”) is also a liberal, promising to raise the minimum wage, expand funding for workforce development programs, and support small businesses. Williams is a standard Democrat, promising to support veterans, expand funding for public education, and expand access to affordable housing. Brown doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Speaking of money, Thomas Smith leads the pack in that category, followed by Santos, while Williams and Walker lag behind them. I think this one goes to a runoff between Santos & Thomas Smith.

HD-118 (Butts/northern Monroe/southern Newton Counties, Trump+31) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this deeply Republican district: businesswoman Jodi Lewis and businesswoman/2024/2022 nominee Sharonda Bell. Lewis is a standard Democrat, focusing on cutting costs, expanding workforce development programs, and strengthening public safety. Bell doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online and hasn’t raised much money. I still wouldn’t count her out considering her name recognition from 2024 & 2022. Even then, I think Lewis has run a much more active campaign (and raised a lot more money) and wins this one.

HD-120 (Western Athens/eastern Jackson County, Trump+12) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Houston Gaines retiring in order to run for GA-10, two Republicans are running to replace him in this solidly Republican district: businessman Ward Black and college professor Chad Paton.

Black (the son of former State Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black) is a standard Republican, focusing on improving education, improving local infrastructure, and cracking down on crime. He’s backed by GA-09 Congressman Andrew Clyde and several local elected officials. Paton is a conservative, promising to cut taxes, oppose abortion, and “stand firm against progressive ideologies.” Black has a solid financial advantage over Paton and has better institutional support, so he should be the favorite here.

HD-128 (Washington County to western McDuffie County, Trump+4) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Outside of a Trump+12 district they lost in a special election last year, this ultra-competitive district in Georgia’s Black Belt is probably the Georgia GOP’s best chance at a state legislative flip this year. That’s mostly because Democratic incumbent Mack Jackson is retiring. While the Republicans already have their candidate (who has been fundraising like gangbusters), the Democrats have to pick their nominee tonight between two men: accountant Tyrone Evans and teacher Rameriz Lewis.

Evans is a moderate, promising to be “financially responsible,” expand access to rural healthcare, and expand rural economic development. Lewis is running as a standard Democrat, promising to expand funding for public education, expand economic development, and expand access to affordable healthcare. Lewis has narrowly outpaced Evans in fundraising. This one’s a pure toss-up, but I’ll give the edge to Lewis. Either way, the Democrats have a tough fight to keep this district blue in November despite the Democratic-friendly national environment it’s shaping up to be.

HD-129 (Central Augusta, Harris+33) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Karlton Howard is facing a primary challenge from businessman Scott Cambers in this deeply Democratic district. Howard has mostly touted his efforts in the legislature to champion early education, expand access to affordable housing, and tackle healthcare inequalities. Cambers has no campaign presence online and lost to Howard by over 50 points in 2024, so Howard should win this one easily.

HD-130 (Southern Augusta, Harris+36) (D-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

Democratic incumbent Sheila Clark Nelson won this deeply Democratic district in a special election earlier this year, but now she wants a full term. She’ll be challenged in that quest by three opponents: businesswoman Karen Gordon, HR official Lafawn Pinkney-Mealing, and businesswoman Sha’Qunta Calles. Nelson doesn’t have much of a campaign platform. Gordon is running on a vague platform of supporting small businesses, cutting costs, and expanding workforce development programs. Pinkney-Mealing is a standard Democrat, focusing on expanding workforce development programs, building more affordable housing, and increasing wages. Calles has no campaign presence online. In the special election, Nelson took 33.5% of the vote, Gordon took 20%, Calles took 14%, and Pinkney-Mealing took 5%, with the remainder going to two Republicans. I think Nelson wins this one because of that, but she could be forced into a runoff with Gordon.

On the Republican side, two candidates are running: minister Thomas McAdams and cybersecurity professional David Carson. McAdams is a standard Republican, promising to cut property taxes, expand “parental rights” in education, and cut red tape for small businesses. Carson wants to hold data centers accountable, improve hurricane resilience, and expand workforce development programs. In the special election earlier this year, McAdams took 20% of the vote, while Carson took 8% (with the remainder going to the Democrats mentioned above). McAdams should win this one.

HD-133 (Twiggs County to Telfair County, Trump+38) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Danny Mathis is facing a primary challenge from former State Representative Robert Pruitt in this deeply Republican district. Mathis is a conservative, touting his efforts to “fix” Georgia elections, cut the gas tax, and oppose abortion. Pruitt doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online and has been heavily outpaced in fundraising by Mathis. As such, Mathis should win this one.

HD-142 (Northern Macon, Harris+18) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Miriam Paris is facing a primary challenge from businessman George Thomas in this solidly Democratic seat. Paris doesn’t have much of a campaign platform online outside of touting her experience in elected office. Thomas is a standard Democrat, promising to cut costs, expand access to affordable healthcare, and improve public safety. He’s backed by a few local elected officials. Paris has a solid financial advantage over Thomas, but the challenger has still managed to raise a fair amount of money. I think Paris wins this one, but I’m keeping an eye on this one.

HD-147 (Western Warner Robins, Trump+8) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this Republican-leaning seat: counselor Tim Riley and US Army veteran Renita Duncan. Riley is a standard Democrat, promising to expand Medicaid, expand funding for public education, and hire more police officers. Duncan is a liberal, promising to expand access to rural transit, raise the minimum wage, and expand access to affordable healthcare (which she calls a human right). She’s outpaced Riley in fundraising, but neither candidate has raised much money. I think Duncan wins this one.

HD-148 (Crisp/Pulaski/Wilcox/southern Houston Counties, Trump+36) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this deeply Republican district: teacher Cynthia Brooks Johnson and minister Lillie Bryant. Johnson is a standard Democrat, focusing on cutting utility costs, expanding access to affordable healthcare, and expanding economic development. She’s backed by the Georgia Conservation Voters. Bryant is running on a vague platform of improving community development, supporting seniors, and expanding workforce development programs. She also hasn’t raised any money (compared to Johnson raising over $5k), so I think Johnson wins here.

HD-149 (Baldwin County to eastern Macon, Harris+12) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Floyd Griffin is facing a primary challenge from political aide Ross Sheppard in this solidly Democratic district.

Griffin is a standard Democrat, promising to restore reproductive rights, support veterans, and protect Georgia’s democracy. He’s backed by the Stacey Abrams-aligned group FairFight. Sheppard is a liberal, promising to raise the minimum wage, expand Medicaid, and build more affordable housing. Both candidates are neck-and-neck in fundraising, with Griffin outpacing him in money raised, but Sheppard crushing him in money spent. I think Griffin wins this one thanks to incumbency/name recognition (he’s very well-known in the area), but he’s facing one of the toughest fights of his career here.

HD-155 (Laurens/Johnson Counties, Trump+35) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Matt Hatchett is facing a primary challenge from community activist Cayce Cook in this deeply Republican district. Hatchett is a standard Republican, promising to cut taxes, crack down on crime, and hire more doctors. Cook is running as a “compassionate conservative,” opposing data centers, promising to expand access to healthcare, and focusing on improving healthcare transparency. He’s raised no money for his campaign, so Hatchett should win this one.

HD-157 (Tattnall/Appling/Jeff Davis/Evans Counties, Trump+55) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Bill Werkheiser is facing a primary challenge from funeral home director Bradley Anderson in this deeply Republican district.

Werkheiser is a standard Republican, focusing on expanding economic development, cracking down on crime, and expanding school choice. He doesn’t appear to be doing much campaigning, at least according to his online profiles. Anderson is running on a similar platform, wanting to expand access to rural healthcare, improve government transparency, and defend the 2nd Amendment. Werkheiser leads Anderson in fundraising, but it’s not a big gap. I’m going to be bold here and say Anderson actually wins this one, mostly because it appears that Werkheiser isn’t even campaigning.

HD-159 (Screven/northern Effingham/Bulloch Counties, Trump+42) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent/State House Speaker Jon Burns is facing a primary challenge from businessman Nathan Hooks in this deeply Republican district. Burns is mostly running on his record of conservative leadership, touting his efforts to support school choice, protect farmers, and cut taxes. Hooks is running to his right, attacking Burns for not passing a fetal heartbeat bill to further restrict abortion, promising to cut taxes, and promising to stop Georgia tax dollars from going to “gender transition.” Even for adults, because the party of personal freedom is a bunch of hypocrites, yes. He’s backed by a few grassroots conservative groups. Burns has a wide financial advantage over Hooks and has sky-high name recognition, so he should win this one, but I’m interested to see if there’s any protest vote against the House Speaker.

HD-165 (Eastern Savannah, Harris+53) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

With Democratic incumbent Edna Jackson retiring, three Democrats are running to replace her in this deeply Democratic district: businessman Jay Morris, businessman MiQuan Green, and progressive activist Kendra Clark.

Morris is a progressive, promising to build rent-controlled housing, end cash bail, and raise the minimum wage. He’s backed by Run for Something. Green is a standard Democrat, promising to expand funding for public education, expand Medicaid, and build more renewable energy developments. He’s backed by State Senator Derek Mallow (who represents this area in the Senate). Clark is a progressive, wanting to enact rent control, tax the rich to fund universal healthcare, and raise the minimum wage. Green leads the pack in fundraising, with Clark lagging behind him and Morris lagging hard behind both of them. I think Green wins this one, but could be forced into a runoff with Clark.

HD-167 (Long County to northern Glynn County, Trump+35) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this deeply Republican district: attorney Laurie Thompson and pastor Nathaniel Hicks. Thompson is a liberal, focusing on cutting utility costs, opposing data centers, and expanding Medicaid. Hicks doesn’t have much of a platform and hasn’t raised any money, while Thompson has raised over $10k for her campaign. As such, I think Thompson wins this one.

HD-168 (Liberty County, Harris+17) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Al Williams is facing a primary challenge from nonprofit official Sabrina Newby in this solidly Democratic district. Williams doesn’t have much of a campaign platform online, but he’s been a solid Democratic vote in the legislature. Newby, who’s running because she said it’s time for change, wants to cut taxes for seniors/working families, support small businesses, and improve local infrastructure. Williams has a wide financial advantage over Newby and should win thanks to that and incumbency.

HD-173 (Thomas/eastern Grady Counties, Trump+21) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Two Democrats are running in this deeply Republican district: nonprofit director/2024 nominee Theresa Thomas and accountant Adam Chitwood. Thomas is running as a standard Democrat, wanting to expand access to mental healthcare, expand workforce development programs, and support small businesses. Chitwood is a liberal, promising to raise the minimum wage, raise teacher salaries, and expand access to healthcare. Thomas hasn’t raised any money, but I still think she wins this thanks to name recognition from 2024.

HD-176 (Atkinson/Lanier/northern Ware Counties, Trump+46) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent/Majority Whip James Burchett is facing a primary challenge from teacher Michael Dockery in this deeply Republican district. Burchett is a standard Republican, promising to protect farmers, cut taxes, and expand rural economic development. Dockery is running on a similar platform, focusing on protecting farmers, cutting taxes, and improving local education. Burchett has a wide financial advantage over Dockery and should be the favorite here thanks to that and incumbency.

HD-177 (Valdosta, Harris+5) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

When Democratic incumbent Dexter Sharper resigned from this Democratic-leaning seat, I thought that the Republicans would at least try and make an effort at flipping this seat. Nope! They didn’t even file a candidate here! It’s a bit mind-boggling, but whoever wins the Democratic primary tonight will become the next Representative for one of Georgia’s most competitive (on paper) State House districts. The Democrats will choose between five candidates: Valdosta City Councilman Eric Howard, political aide Blake Robinson, former Valdosta City Councilman Alvin Payton, nurse practitioner Elsie Napier, and nonprofit director Kristina Cheek McBride.

Howard is focusing on criminal justice reform and promises to improve public safety. Robinson is a standard Democrat, focusing on cutting costs, expanding economic development, and improving climate resiliency. He’s backed by former Governor Roy Barnes. Payton is running on a vague platform, touting his experience and wanting to expand economic development. Napier is also running on a vague platform, promising to be “Faithfull,” Accountable, Committed, and Empowered. McBride is mostly focused on improving maternal healthcare. Robinson leads the pack in fundraising, followed by Napier, McBride, & Payton, with Howard not raising any money. Last week was actually the special election for this seat to fill the vacancy for the rest of the year. It was super low turnout (only 1,600 votes), but it saw Payton come in first with 36%, Howard in second with 20%, McBride in third with 18%, an independent in fourth with 14%, and Robinson in fifth with 12%. Based on that, I think this one goes to a runoff between Payton and Howard.

And that’s it for this edition of Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch. I’ll be back in a few hours to cover all the state legislative primaries happening in Pennsylvania tonight. Until then, I’ve been Uncrewed/Chris (you can follow me on Twitter @Uncrewed, same on Bluesky!) and don’t forget to stay awesome!