State Legislative Election Watch- 2026 California Primary Preview
An exhaustive look at every state legislative primary going down in California tonight!
STATE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION WATCH- 2026 California Primary Preview
INTRO:
Hello everyone and welcome to Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch! I’m Uncrewed/Chris and this is your one-stop-shop to everything you need to know about state legislative elections from around the country. We’ve got five states holding primaries tonight: California, Iowa, Montana, New Mexico, & South Dakota. We’ve already covered four of those five states yesterday & Sunday, so now we’re on to the biggest pick of the litter, California! So, without further ado, let’s get to it!
BACKGROUND:
California’s top-two primary system (where the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary advance to November regardless of party affiliation) makes covering these races in the traditional State Legislative Election Watch way a bit challenging/impossible. As such, I’m making a rule for California (and Washington later this year, as they also have top-two primaries). If any race has more than two candidates running, it will be covered. It could be 10 Democrats running, five Republicans, or just one candidate from each party and one minor party/independent candidate. If it has more than two candidates running, I’ll cover them here.
SD-02 (Northwestern California, Harris+43) (D-Held):
With Democratic incumbent Mike McGuire term-limited/running for CA-01, three candidates have emerged to replace him in this deeply Democratic district: Democratic State Assemblyman Damon Connolly, Republican school board member Aaron Smith, and Republican businesswoman Tief Gibbs.
Connolly is a liberal, focusing on preventing future wildfires, improving climate change resiliency, and protecting access to healthcare (which he calls a human right). He’s backed by pretty much the entire Democratic Party establishment. Smith is a standard Republican, wanting to cut costs, cut regulations, and cut taxes. Gibbs is a conservative, wanting to cut taxes, oppose abortion, and defend the 2nd Amendment. Connolly is guaranteed a spot and I think he’ll be joined by Gibbs, solely based on name recognition from her run for CA-02 in 2024 (where she came in third place in the primary).
SD-04 (Eastern California, Trump+13) (R-Held):
The Democrats flipped this solidly Republican district in 2022 after the Republicans ran too many candidates and locked themselves out. The winner of that all-Democratic election was Marie Alvarado-Gil, who ended up joining the Republican Party in August 2024. That hasn’t dissuaded two challengers from challenging her tonight: Republican farmer Alexandra Duarte and Democratic Tuolumne County Supervisor Jaron Brandon.
Alvarado-Gil has mostly tried to avoid anything involving a campaign platform in this race, but she’s been a reliably conservative vote in the legislature since she became a Republican. She’s backed by State Senate Minority Leader Brian Jones, several of her colleagues in the legislature, several local Republican Parties, and a bunch of local elected officials. Duarte, the wife of former CA-13 Congressman John Duarte, is a right-winger. She’s promising to crack down on illegal immigration (and stand with President Trump), crack down on crime, and stop schools from enforcing a “radical agenda” on kids. She’s also been attacking Alvarado-Gil heavily for supporting Democrats in the past. She’s backed by CA-05 Congressman Tom McClintock, CA-20 Congressman Vince Fong, CA-23 Congressman Jay Obernolte, several local elected officials, and several local Republican Parties. Her attacks on Alvarado-Gil have led to a bit of controversy though, mostly thanks to one very bad-looking mailer:
Yes, it does look like Duarte is about to shoot Alvarado-Gil. The mailer led to widespread condemnation from the Republican establishment here, but the Duarte campaign is saying that the criticism is just a distraction from Alvarado-Gil’s record. In case you forgot, there’s a third candidate here, Democratic Tuolumne County Supervisor Jaron Brandon. Brandon calls himself a “steel-toed Democrat” who wants to “get stuff done” and bring “common sense” back to governance. He’s backed by State Treasurer Fiona Ma and several local elected officials/unions.
Duarte has a solid financial advantage over Alvarado-Gil and Brandon, who are neck-and-neck in that category. We actually have a poll of this race courtesy of the Duarte campaign. The poll, taken in mid-May, shows Brandon in first with 35%, Duarte in second with 27%, and Alvarado-Gil in third with just 11%. Unless undecideds break heavily for the incumbent, it looks like this one will end with Brandon & Duarte finishing in the top-two, ending the career of the almost-accidental State Senator Alvarado-Gil.
SD-06 (Western Placer/eastern Sacramento Counties, Trump+1) (R-Held):
Republican incumbent Roger Niello is running for re-election in this ultra-competitive district, but before he can make it to November, he has to claim a spot by besting two opponents tonight: Democratic businessman Sean Frame and Democratic businesswoman Sara Velasco. Niello is a standard Republican, promising to oppose any new taxes, expand school choice, and cut healthcare costs. Frame is a progressive, touting his opposition to corporations, support for rent control, and support for single-payer healthcare. He’s backed by CA-04 Congressman Mike Thompson, the AFL-CIO, the Working Families Party, Our Revolution, and several unions/local elected officials. Velasco has no campaign presence online. Niello & Frame should have the two spots locked down.
SD-08 (Sacramento area, Harris+32.5) (D-Held):
Democratic incumbent/Majority Leader Angelique Ashby has two opponents in this deeply Democratic district: Republican nurse Susan Mason and Peace & Freedom Party activist Linda Roberts. Ashby hasn’t updated her campaign website since 2022 (seeing as her top campaign plank is responding to the COVID-19 Pandemic), but she’s been a reliably liberal vote in the Senate. Mason has no campaign presence online. Roberts also doesn’t have a campaign presence online, but it’s the Peace & Freedom Party, so she’s definitely on the left end of the political spectrum. Ashby has a spot locked down and so should Mason. If a miracle happens and a P&F candidate outpaces a Republican here, then I’ll take my spot as King of England, because both have equal chances of happening.
SD-10 (Southern Alameda/northern Santa Clara Counties, Harris+37) (D-Held):
With Democratic incumbent Aisha Wahab leaving this deeply Democratic seat in order to run for CA-14, six candidates are running to succeed her: Democratic San Jose City Councilman David Cohen, Democratic school board member Anne Kepner, Democratic Fremont City Councilman Raymond Liu, Democratic Mayor of Milpitas Carmen Montano, Democratic Union City Councilman Scott Sakakihara, and Republican businesswoman Linda Price.
Cohen is a liberal, wanting to build more housing, expand funding for public education, and protect the state from climate change. He’s backed by CA-16 Congressman Sam Liccardo, CA-17 Congressman Ro Khanna, CA-18 Congresswoman Zoe Lofgren, a bunch of local elected officials, and several YIMBY groups. Kepner is also a liberal, promising to hold big corporations accountable, expand economic development, and expand access to affordable housing. She’s backed by several state legislators and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO and the SEIU). Liu is a moderate, wanting to build more housing, cut red tape for businesses, and improve public safety. Montano is also a moderate, wanting to cut property taxes for seniors, crack down on crime, and stop “Sacramento’s aggressive upzoning laws” from infringing on local control (She’s a NIMBY). She’s backed by CA-17 Congressman Ro Khanna and a bunch of local elected officials. Sakakihara is a standard Democrat, wanting to cut costs, protect marginalized communities, and crack down on crime. He’s backed by former Congressman Mike Honda, several state legislators/local elected officials, and several unions (most notably LiUNA and the Teamsters). Price is a standard Republican, wanting to cut taxes/regulations, crack down on crime, and audit government spending. Sakakihara leads the six in fundraising, followed by Cohen, Montano, & Liu. Kepner & Price haven’t reported raising any money. I still think Price gets a spot in November solely by being the only Republican here, while the race for the second spot ends up coming down to Cohen & Sakakihara. I’ll give the edge to Sakakihara there thanks to his financial advantage.
SD-12 (Eastern Fresno County to western Bakersfield, Trump+26) (R-Held):
With Republican incumbent Shannon Grove term-limited, three candidates are running to replace her in this deeply Republican district: Republican Fresno County Supervisor Nathan Magsig, Republican mechanic Louis Anthony Miramontes, and Libertarian social worker William Brown.
Magsig is a standard Republican, promising to cut regulations on farmers, crack down on crime, and expand oil/gas production. He’s backed by pretty much the entire Republican Party establishment in California. Miramontes has no campaign presence online outside of this photo:
Ah Shrek memes, very 2016 of him. Anyway, Brown wants to cut taxes, protect “economic freedom,” and stop “government overreach.” Magsig has a spot in November locked down, but the battle for the second spot comes down to Democratic voters. There’s no Democrat here, so I think they’ll either skip this race or vote for Brown. As such, I think Magsig and Brown advance to November.
SD-14 (Merced County to Fresno, Harris+4) (D-Held):
With Democratic incumbent Anna Caballero term-limited, three candidates are running to replace her in this Democratic-leaning district: Democratic State Assemblywoman Esmeralda Soria, Democratic Sanger City Councilwoman Esmeralda Hurtado, and Republican Merced City Councilman Darin DuPont.
Soria is a standard Democrat, touting her efforts in the State Assembly to expand funding for healthcare, improve public safety, and fight local flooding. She’s backed by pretty much the entire Democratic Party establishment in the Central Valley alongside a bunch of unions. Hurtado, who is the sister of SD-16 State Senator Melissa Hurtado (more on her in a bit), is a standard Democrat. She wants to expand funding for public education, improve public safety, and improve air/water quality. She’s backed by her sister and several local elected officials. DuPont is a standard Republican, wanting to cut taxes, stop “Democratic hypocrisy,” and support local farmers. He’s backed by several state legislators/local elected officials. Soria has a wide financial advantage over her two opponents, with DuPont and Hurtado lagging far behind her. Soria and DuPont are the favorites here.
SD-16 (Kings County to eastern Bakersfield, Trump+9) (D-Held):
Democratic incumbent Melissa Hurtado is running for re-election in this Republican-leaning district, but she first has to face two opponents in tonight’s primary: Democratic Bakersfield City Councilwoman Manpreet Kaur and Republican political aide Guillermo Gonzalez.
Hurtado is a standard Democrat, touting her efforts to cut costs/hold corporations accountable, protect water security, and improve public safety. She’s backed by the California Democratic Party, several unions, and a bunch of her colleagues in Sacramento. Kaur, who was the first ever Sikh Punjabi woman elected to the Bakersfield City Council, is running to Hurtado’s left. She wants to cut costs, protect renters, and invest in universal childcare. She’s backed by the Working Families Party. Gonzalez, who works for CA-22 Congressman David Valadao, is a moderate. He wants to cut regulations for businesses/farmers, protect local resources, and expand access to healthcare. He’s backed by pretty much the entirety of the Republican Party establishment. Hurtado has a wide financial advantage over Kaur, with Gonzalez lagging behind them both. Gonzalez should have a spot locked down solely based on the Republicans usually getting around 45-50% of the vote here. Hurtado should be able to hold off Kaur for the second spot, but I’m interested to see how much of the vote Kaur gets as a bit of a protest vote against how moderate/conservative Hurtado is.
SD-20 (Burbank/northern Los Angeles, Harris+28) (D-Held):
Democratic incumbent Caroline Menjivar is running for re-election in this deeply Democratic district, but she’ll have to fend off two primary challengers in order to get to November: Democratic college professor Roberto LaCarra and Republican businessman Tony Rodriguez. Menjivar is a liberal, touting her efforts to expand funding for healthcare, protect renters, and fight for “environmental justice.” She’s backed by the California Democratic Party, CA-29 Congresswoman Luz Rivas, the Working Families Party, and a bunch of unions. LaCarra is a standard Democrat, wanting to improve public safety, expand funding for public education, and cut costs. Rodriguez is a standard Republican, wanting to crack down on crime, cut taxes, and support small businesses. Menjivar & Rodriguez should advance to November here.
SD-22 (Ontario/Chino to El Monte, Harris+14) (D-Held):
Democratic incumbent Susan Rubio is running for re-election in this solidly Democratic district, but she’s being joined in the primary by Republican businessman Mike Netter and Independent US Marine Corps veteran R.R. Jimenez. Rubio is a standard Democrat, touting her efforts to expand access to affordable housing, fight climate change, and crack down on domestic violence. Netter is a conservative, wanting to cut taxes, expand energy production, and stop “Trans-Drug “THERAPY” for our kids paid for by our tax-dollars?!” His words, not mine! Jimenez wants to cut taxes, crack down on crime, and expand economic development. Rubio and Jimenez are the favorites here solely based on their associations with the Democrats and Republicans.
SD-24 (Coastal Los Angeles County, Harris+38) (D-Held):
With Democratic incumbent Ben Allen term-limited, a whopping 10 candidates are running to replace him in this deeply Democratic district: Democratic school board member Eric Alegria, Democratic attorney Amaris Dordar, Democratic West Hollywood City Councilman John Erickson, Democratic community organizer Ellen Evans, Democratic businessman John Goldsmith, Democratic businessman Mike Newhouse, Democratic doctor Sion Roy, Democratic nonprofit director Zennon Ulayte-Crow, Republican real estate agent Kristina Irwin, and Republican businessman Rick Marshall.
Alegria is a moderate, wanting to improve public safety, cut costs, and implement “fiscal responsibility.” He’s backed by a bunch of local elected officials and the NIMBY group Californians For Local Control. Dordar is a progressive, wanting to build more housing, defend diversity and inclusion, and protect the LGBTQ+ community. Erickson is a standard Democrat, touting his efforts to build more affordable housing, supporting small businesses, and expanding funding for public education. He’s backed by State Treasurer Fiona Ma, a bunch of local elected officials, a bunch of unions, the Working Families Party, and several YIMBY groups. Evans is a liberal, wanting to protect reproductive rights, expand funding for public education, and protect the LGBTQ+ community. She’s backed by Los Angeles City Councilman/Mayoral candidate Nithya Raman, Equality California, and Democrats For Israel. Goldsmith is a standard Democrat, focusing on cutting costs, improving public safety, and protecting the local environment. He’s backed by former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, former US Secretary of State/2016 Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, former US Senator Barbara Boxer, Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis, former US Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, businessman/2022 Mayoral candidate Rick Caruso, a bunch of local elected officials, and the Los Angeles police union. Newhouse is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand economic development, protect “California Values,” and improve public safety. He’s backed by the Fraternal Order of Police and several local elected officials. Roy is a liberal, promising to expand access to healthcare, protect workers’ rights, and fight climate change. He’s backed by the California Democratic Party, the Los Angeles Democratic Party, State Treasurer Fiona Ma, State Attorney General Rob Bonta, several state legislators, a bunch of local elected officials, the SEIU, and Democrats For Israel. Ulyate-Crow is a liberal, wanting to cut costs and protect the local environment. Irwin is a conservative, proudly touting her support for “medical freedom,” school choice, and promising to stop “geoengineering.” She’s backed by the California Republican Party and several state legislators/local elected officials. Marshall is a standard Republican, wanting to cut regulations on housing, expand oil/gas production, and improve public safety.
Goldsmith leads the field in fundraising, followed by Erickson, Evans, Roy, Newhouse, Alegria, Ulyate-Crow, Irwin, Marshall, & Dordar (who hasn’t raised any money). Pure toss-up here, but I’ll go with Goldsmith to grab a spot alongside Irwin. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a second Democrat (namely Roy) in November alongside Goldsmith, but I think the Democratic field is too split to let that happen.
SD-26 (Central Los Angeles, Harris+54) (D-Held):
With Democratic incumbent Maria Elena Durazo retiring, eight candidates are running to replace her in this deeply Democratic district: Democratic teacher Paul Bowers, Democratic nonprofit executive Juan Camacho, former Democratic State Assemblywoman Wendy Carrillo, Democratic school board member Sara Hernandez, Democratic Neighborhood Councilwoman Maebe Pudlo, Democratic political aide Sarah Rascon, Republican activist Claudia Agraz, and Republican pastor Sang Masog.
Bowers has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Camacho is a liberal, promising to fight back against the Trump Administration, protect reproductive freedom, and expand access to healthcare (calling it a right, not a privilege). He’s backed by State Treasurer Fiona Ma, State Controller Malia Cohen, State Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara, several state legislators/local elected officials, and Equality California. Carrillo is a standard Democrat, touting her efforts in the Assembly to expand access to healthcare, expand access to affordable housing, and expand economic development. She’s backed by State Treasurer Fiona Ma, several state legislators, and a bunch of unions (most notably LiUNA and the CWA). Hernandez is a progressive, wanting to build more housing and enact rent control, expand public transit, and expand access to higher education. She’s backed by State Treasurer Fiona Ma (who loves every candidate here apparently), a bunch of state legislators/local elected officials, a bunch of unions (most notably the Teamsters), Dolores Huerta, and several YIMBY groups. Pudlo, who you may remember as the drag queen who ran against Adam Schiff in 2020/2022 under the name Maebe A. Girl, is a progressive. She wants to enact universal healthcare, expand access to housing (calling it a human right), and enact free tuition at state colleges. She’s backed by Our Revolution. Rascon is also a progressive, wanting to fight for social/environmental justice (namely touting her support for Palestine), build more housing, and expand workforce development programs. Agraz is a conservative, touting her support for improving public safety, “medical freedom,” and “parental rights.” Masog (who also goes by Sam Shin) is a standard Republican, wanting to improve public safety, cut taxes, and expand “parental rights” in education.
Camacho & Hernandez are neck-and-neck in fundraising, with Carillo lagging a bit behind them and Rascon, Pudlo, Masog, & Agraz lagging harder behind the top three. With how Democratic this district is and the presence of multiple Republican candidates, I think two Democrats advance to November. I’ll give the edge to Camacho and Hernandez there, but I could see Carillo’s name recognition getting her a spot.
SD-28 (Western Los Angeles, Harris+60) (D-Held):
Democratic incumbent Lola Smallwood-Cuevas is running for re-election, but she’s being joined in the primary by Republican Neighborhood Councilman Joe Lisuzzo and Independent education consultant Daphne Bradford in this deeply Democratic district. Smallwood-Cuevas is a progressive, touting her efforts to protect workers’ rights, expand treatment options for homeless residents, and fight for Medicare For All. Lisuzzo is a standard Republican, promising to crack down on crime, expand economic development (decrying Palantir leaving California), and support families. Bradford wants to fight government corruption and improve local infrastructure. Smallwood-Cuevas and Lisuzzo should have the top two spots locked down by virtue of their parties.
SD-40 (Northern San Diego suburbs, Harris+4) (R-Held):
Three candidates are running to succeed term-limited Republican incumbent/Senate Minority Leader Brian Jones in this ultra-competitive district: former Democratic San Diego City Attorney Mara Elliott, Republican San Marcos City Councilman Ed Musgrove, and Republican businesswoman Kristie Bruce-Lance.
Elliott is a standard Democrat, focusing on cutting costs, expanding access to healthcare, and improving public safety. She’s backed by CA-51 Congresswoman Sara Jacobs, several state legislators, a bunch of local elected officials, and a bunch of unions. Musgrove is a standard Republican, wanting to cut taxes, crack down on crime, and expand access to affordable housing. He’s backed by outgoing Senator Jones, CA-48 Congressman Darrell Issa, a bunch of local elected officials, and several police/firefighter unions. Bruce-Lane is a conservative, promising to cut taxes, secure the southern border, and improve “election integrity.” She’s backed by Riverside County Sheriff/gubernatorial candidate Chad Bianco, State Assemblyman Carl DeMaio, and former US Ambassador to Germany Ric Grenell. Musgrove and Elliott are neck-and-neck in fundraising, with Bruce-Lane close behind them. Elliott has a spot locked down by virtue of being the only Democrat here, but the race between Musgrove and Bruce-Lane should be close. I’ll give the edge to Musgrove here based on his establishment support, but I could see the grassroots pushing Bruce-Lane past him.
AD-01 (Northeastern California, Trump+16) (R-Held):
Republican incumbent Heather Hadwick is facing two challengers in this solidly Republican district: Republican Anderson City Councilman Darin Hale and former Democratic US State Department official Dianna James. Hadwick is a standard Republican, promising to cut “wasteful” government spending, cut taxes, and support farmers. She’s backed by a bunch of her colleagues in Sacramento, the NRA, and a bunch of local elected officials. Hale is a right-winger, touting his support for the “America First Agenda,” support for the 2nd Amendment, and supporting eliminating property taxes. He’s attracted a bit of attention as of late for posting an AI video of him throwing a “woke” teacher out of a window and tearing down a communist and rainbow flag. Here are some stills courtesy of ShastaScout:
You know, I don’t think you get to call “the left” violent when you’re posting AI videos assaulting people who have different political ideologies than you do. Much like with Spencer Pratt in Los Angeles, posting these AI videos are just a sign of laziness more than anything. Why should I trust you to help run the government if you can’t even make an ad/campaign video? Anyway, James is a moderate. She wants to expand workforce development programs, cut red tape for businesses, and protect local resources. Hadwick leads in fundraising, with Hale and James lagging far behind her. I expect Hadwick and James to win here.
AD-03 (Tehama County to western Placer County, Trump+19) (R-Held):
Three candidates are running to succeed term-limited Republican incumbent/CA-01 candidate James Gallagher in this solidly Republican district: former Republican Marysville City Councilman Dom Belza, former Republican Mayor of Chico Andrew Coolidge, and former Republican President of the California Farm Bureau Jamie Johansson. Yep, all three candidates are Republicans, meaning that the Republicans are guaranteed to hold this seat after November.
Belza is a standard Republican, wanting to cut taxes, protect local water resources, and defend the 2nd Amendment. He’s backed by outgoing Assemblyman Gallagher, Republican-turned-Independent CA-03 Congressman Kevin Kiley, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, the Placer/Sutter County Republican Parties, several police unions, a bunch of state legislators, and a bunch of local elected officials. Coolidge is also a standard Republican, focusing on preventing wildfires, cracking down on homelessness, and protecting farmers. He’s backed by several local elected officials and the California YIMBY group. Johansson is a standard Republican, promising to cut taxes, prevent wildfires, and protect farmers. He’s backed by CA-05 Congressman Tom McClintock and several local elected officials. Belza leads the three in fundraising, followed by Coolidge & Johansson. I think Belza has a spot locked down thanks to his finances/institutional support and he’ll be joined by Johansson who will emerge from a close race with Coolidge.
AD-07 (Eastern Sacramento suburbs, Harris+4.5) (R-Held):
This ultra-competitive seat will be an interesting one to watch in November, but we’ll have to shrink the field from three to two tonight. Those three candidates are Republican incumbent Josh Hoover, Democratic teacher Amy Slavensky, and American Independent real estate agent Sanaz Motamedi. Hoover is a standard Republican, wanting to crack down on crime, cut taxes, and expand school choice. Slavensky is a liberal, wanting to expand access to affordable housing, protect reproductive rights, and expand funding for public education. Motamedi wants to expand funding for mental healthcare, prioritize traffic congestion relief, and protect the local environment. Hoover and Slavensky are the favorites here.
AD-09 (Southern Sacramento County to northern Stanislaus County, Trump+23) (R-Held):
Republican incumbent/Majority Leader Heath Flora is in the toughest battle of his political career tonight in this deeply Republican district. He’s facing five opponents in tonight’s primary: Republican businessman Jim Shoemaker, Republican activist Tami Nobriga, Republican businessman Brandon Owen, Democratic community organizer Matthew Adams, and Democratic water treatment plant operator Michael Perez.
Flora, who’s been a reliably conservative vote in the legislature, has faced criticism from the local Republican Parties in the district for being non-existent in the district. As such, they’ve lined up behind Shoemaker. Shoemaker is a standard Republican, promising to crack down on crime, cut taxes, and protect local farmers. He’s backed by CA-05 Congressman Tom McClintock, the Amador, San Joaquin, & Stanislaus County Republican Parties, and several local elected officials. Nobriga calls herself the “real conservative” in the race, pointing to her support for stopping child trafficking, protecting the 2nd Amendment, and expanding “election integrity.” Owen is a standard Republican, promising to crack down on crime, cut regulations, and support “parental rights” in education. Adams is a liberal, promising to expand funding for public education, enact universal healthcare, and build more affordable housing. He’s backed by the California Democratic Party, most local Democratic Parties, and Run For Something. Perez doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online outside of a few Facebook posts showing him campaigning. I think Flora’s incumbency still gets him a spot in November, but the battle for the second spot between Adams and Shoemaker will be interesting. I think the Republican field will be too split to get a second Republican into November, so I’ll give the edge to Adams to join Flora.
AD-11 (Solano County area, Harris+19.5) (D-Held):
Democratic incumbent Lori Wilson is facing two Independents in tonight’s primary for this deeply Democratic district: Independent US Army veteran/2022 candidate Jenny Callison and Independent businesswoman Rochelle Conner. Wilson doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but she’s been a solid Democratic vote in the legislature. Callison wants to cut costs, improve government transparency, and support small businesses. Conner wants to cut regulations, cut taxes, and expand local control. Wilson has a spot locked down, while I think Republicans will gravitate more towards Conner than Callison, so Conner should get the second spot.
AD-12 (Marin/southern Sonoma Counties, Harris+55.5) (D-Held):
Six candidates are running to succeed retiring Democratic Assemblyman Damon Connolly (who is running for State Senate) in this deeply Democratic district: Democratic Mayor of Corte Madera Eli Beckman, Democratic Rohnert Park City Councilwoman Jackie Elward, Democratic Marin County Supervisor Eric Lucan, Democratic nonprofit executive Steve Schwartz, Democratic Tiburon Town Councilwoman Holli Thier, and Republican correctional counselor Eryn Cervantes.
Beckman is a liberal, promising to fight climate change, cut costs, and expand funding for public education. He’s backed by State Treasurer Fiona Ma, several state legislators, a bunch of local elected officials, and several YIMBY groups. Elward is a progressive, focusing on fighting back against climate change, protecting marginalized groups from the Trump Administration, and working towards a single-payer healthcare system. She’s backed by CA-04 Congressman Mike Thompson, State Treasurer Fiona Ma, State Controller Malia Cohen, State Superintendent Tony Thurmond, several state legislators, a bunch of local elected officials, the Working Families Party, Our Revolution, and a bunch of unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Lucan is a liberal, promising to protect marginalized communities, fight back against climate change, and support small businesses. He’s backed by US Senator Adam Schiff, CA-02 Congressman Jared Huffman, State Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas, a bunch of local elected officials, and several unions. Schwartz is a liberal, mostly focusing on holding utility giant PG&E accountable, but also promising to invest in the food economy and expand access to affordable housing. Thier is a progressive, promising to fight climate change, expand funding for public education, and build more affordable housing. She’s backed by State Treasurer Fiona Ma (who has once again endorsed more than two candidates in a primary) and several local elected officials. Cervantes is mostly focused on improving public safety and cracking down on crime.
Lucan leads the six in fundraising, followed by Beckman, Elward, & Thier and Schwartz/Cervantes lagging behind. I think Lucan has one spot locked down, with the battle for second being between Cervantes and Elward. Republicans here usually get around 20-25%, so this boils down to if you think Elward can get that over Cervantes. I think she will, and join Lucan in November.
AD-13 (Stockton area, Harris+13) (D-Held):
Democratic incumbent Rhodesia Ransom faces three opponents in the primary for this solidly Democratic district: former Republican San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti, Republican accountant Ali Jafri, and Independent businesswoman Eliza Dy. Ransom is mostly running on her legislative record, touting her bills to expand economic development, improve public safety, and improve local infrastructure. Patti, who you may remember as either the Republican nominee for CA-09 in 2022 or for being Mike Tyson’s boxing manager in the 90s, is a conservative. He supports the 2nd Amendment and wants to enact “election integrity” measures. Jafri has no campaign presence anywhere online and hasn’t raised any money. Dy also has no campaign presence online. Ransom and Patti should win this one.
AD-14 (Berkeley/Richmond area, Harris+71.5) (D-Held):
Democratic incumbent Buffy Wicks is facing two opponents in tonight’s primary for this deeply Democratic district: Republican teacher Borgar Solnordal and Green teacher Mark Rendon. Wicks is a liberal, promising to expand access to affordable housing, crack down on gun violence, and stand up for working families. Solnordal has no campaign presence online. Rendon is a progressive, wanting to enact universal healthcare, establish free public education from pre-K to college, and divest from Israel. Wicks has a spot locked down and, while it would be pretty funny to see a Green outpace a Republican, I think Solnordal joins her in November. The Republicans only got 10% here in the primary in 2024, so it might be possible for Rendon to outpace him in theory.
AD-16 (Eastern Alameda/southern Contra Costa Counties, Harris+36) (D-Held):
Democratic incumbent Rebecca Bauer-Kahan has two opponents in the primary for this deeply Democratic district: Republican businessman Joseph Rubay and Independent businessman Chirag Kathrani. Bauer-Kahan is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand funding for public education, protect reproductive rights, and keep kids safe online. Rubay is a standard Republican, touting his support for Israel, wanting to crack down on crime, and wanting to remove “Anti-American and Anti-Jewish Agendas” from school curriculums. Kathrani wants to build more affordable housing, expand renewable energy mandates, and hold corporations accountable for environmental damage. Bauer-Kahan and Rubay should win this one.
AD-18 (Oakland, Harris+72) (D-Held):
Democratic incumbent Mia Bonta faces three opponents in tonight’s primary for this deeply Democratic district: Democratic community activist Andre Sandford, Republican driving instructor Ned Nuerge, and Green author Michael Goldstein. Bonta is a liberal, touting her efforts to improve community safety, protect healthcare, and support working families. Sandford is a progressive, promising to freeze rent increases, put police officers outside of schools, and enact universal healthcare. He’s backed by a few Young Democrats groups. Nuerge is a conservative, focusing on expanding workforce development programs, cracking down on crime, and protecting the “traditional family unit.” Goldstein has no campaign presence online. Bonta has a spot locked down, but in a district where Republicans usually only get around 10-15% of the vote, there’s a real chance Sandford gets the second spot. In fact, I think that’s what will happen and he will join Bonta in November.
AD-23 (Western San Mateo/Santa Clara Counties, Harris+54) (D-Held):
Democratic incumbent Marc Berman is facing off against two Republicans in the primary for this deeply Democratic district: businessman Rick Giorgetti and businessman David Johnson. Berman is a liberal, promising to strengthen voting rights, build more affordable housing, and protect reproductive freedom. Giorgetti has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Johnson is a conservative, wanting to expand “parental rights” in education, cut taxes, and enact voter ID measures. Berman has a spot locked down, so I’ll give the second spot to Johnson solely because it looks like he’s the only one trying between him & Giorgetti.
AD-24 (Fremont/northern San Jose area, Harris+31) (D-Held):
Democratic incumbent Alex Lee has two opponents in tonight’s primary for this deeply Democratic district: Republican businessman Max Hsia and Independent Fremont City Councilman Yang Shao.
Lee is a progressive, wanting to build more affordable housing, expand funding for public education, and create a universal healthcare system. Hsia is a standard Republican, wanting to expand oil & gas production, cut red tape for businesses, and crack down on crime. Shao wants to crack down on crime, demand “accountability” for state funding, and cut costs. He’s backed by a bunch of local elected officials. Lee leads the pack in fundraising, but Shao is right on his tail while Hsia lags far behind both. Lee has a spot locked down, but I think Shao grabs the second spot thanks to his strong fundraising and institutional support. He should be able to attract a fair amount of moderate Democrats and maybe even a few Republicans here, which should be enough to get second.
AD-27 (Merced/western Fresno/Madera Counties, Trump+3) (D-Held):
Three candidates are running to replace retiring Democratic incumbent Esmeralda Soria (who is running for State Senate) in this ultra-competitive district: Democratic Fresno County Supervisor Brian Pacheco, Democratic Livingston City Councilman Japjeet Singh Uppal, and former Republican Mayor of Merced Mike Murphy.
Pacheco is a standard Democrat, focusing on cutting costs, expanding access to affordable healthcare, and expanding funding for public education/law enforcement. He’s backed by outgoing Assemblywoman Soria, CA-13 Congressman Adam Gray, CA-21 Congressman Jim Costa, State Assembly Speaker Rivas, a bunch of local elected officials, and several unions. Uppal is a progressive, promising to fight against the “two-party political machine,” fight for healthcare for all, and ban private equity firms from buying up housing. He explicitly says he’s not seeking endorsements from “sellout politicians or institutions.” Murphy is mostly running on his record from his time as Mayor, touting his efforts to create a budget surplus, ensure clean drinking waters, and expand workforce development programs. Pacheco has a wide fundraising advantage over his two opponents, with Murphy lagging behind him and Uppal not raising much. Pacheco and Murphy are the favorites here.
AD-29 (Eastern Monterey County area, Harris+23) (D-Held):
Democratic Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas has two opponents in tonight’s primary for this deeply Democratic district: Republican truck driver J.W. Paine and Republican businessman Dennis Sanchez. Rivas is a standard Democrat, touting his efforts as Speaker to cut costs, crack down on crime, and build more housing. Paine is a standard Republican, wanting to cut regulations, strengthen “parental rights” in education, and crack down on crime. He’s backed by the Santa Cruz, Santa Clara, & San Benito County Republican Parties and several conservative grassroots groups. Sanchez is running on a vaguely moderate platform of bringing “common sense” and “real life experience” to the legislature and focusing on public safety, small businesses, and infrastructure. Rivas has a spot locked down and should be joined by Paine thanks to his grassroots backing.
AD-30 (Southern Santa Cruz County to San Luis Obispo County, Harris+27) (D-Held):
Democratic incumbent Dawn Addis faces two opponents in the primary for this deeply Democratic district: Democratic data scientist Susannah Brown and Republican businesswoman Shannon Kessler. Addis is a standard Democrat, touting her efforts to expand access to healthcare, expand funding for public education, and lower barriers to college. She’s backed by pretty much the entire Democratic Party establishment and a bunch of unions. Brown is also a standard Democrat, wanting to reduce delays in building housing, improve local infrastructure, and expand workforce development programs. Kessler is a standard Republican, wanting to crack down on crime, cut costs, and expand “parental rights” in education. Addis and Kessler should get the top two here.
AD-31 (Fresno area, Harris+13) (D-Held):
Three candidates are running to replace retiring Democratic incumbent Joaquin Arambula in this solidly Democratic district: Democratic Fresno City Councilwoman Annalisa Perea, Democratic nonprofit executive Sandra Celedon, and Republican engineer Jim Polsgrove.
Perea is mostly running on her time on the Fresno City Council, touting her efforts to hire more police officers/firefighters, lower crime rates by investing in community policing, and cut homelessness. She’s backed by the California Democratic Party, State Attorney General Bonta, Assembly Speaker Rivas, Fresno Mayor Jerry Dyer (who is a Republican), several state legislators, a bunch of local elected officials, and several unions (most notably the SEIU). Celedon is a progressive, wanting to enact universal healthcare, cut costs, and enact universal childcare. She’s backed by outgoing Assemblyman Arambula, US Senator Bernie Sanders, Dolores Huerta, several state legislators, and the Working Families Party. Polsgrove is a conservative, promising to crack down on crime, protecting the southern border from “illegal invasion,” and defending the 2nd Amendment. Perea leads the three in fundraising, with Celedon lagging behind her and Polsgrove lagging further behind both. Polsgrove should have a spot locked down (mostly because Republicans usually get around 35-40% of the vote here) and I think Perea gets the other spot. I could see Celedon winning it, but for now I think Perea’s institutional support gets her that spot.
AD-34 (Eastern San Bernardino/northern Los Angeles Counties, Trump+20) (R-Held):
With Republican incumbent Tom Lackey term-limited, four candidates are running to replace him in this solidly Republican district: Democratic Mayor of Big Bear Lake Randall Putz, Republican attorney/former Democratic State Assemblyman Steve Fox, Republican school board member Charles Hughes, and Republican school board member Manny Lin.
Putz is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand access to affordable healthcare, improve public safety, and build more affordable housing. You’re not reading that wrong, Fox served in the State Assembly from 2012-2014 as a Democrat. He won his first election to represent a district covering Lancaster/Palmdale in an upset, winning by 145 votes despite being outspent 12-to-1. He was swept out of office two years later by a 20-point margin after he was accused of sexual harassment. He’s made several comeback attempts as a Democrat, failing each time, now he’s back as a Republican. He’s a standard Republican, wanting to cut taxes, cut costs, and crack down on crime. Hughes is a standard Republican, wanting to cut taxes & regulations, crack down on crime, and expand school choice. He’s backed by pretty much the entire Republican Party establishment. Lin is running on a similar platform, promising to crack down on crime, cut costs, and improve education. He’s backed by a few local elected officials. Hughes leads the four in fundraising, followed shortly behind by Putz & Fox, with Lin not raising any money. Putz and Hughes are the favorites here.
AD-35 (Eastern Bakersfield area, Harris+0.3) (D-Held):
Three candidates are running to replace retiring Democratic incumbent Jasmeet Bains in this ultra-competitive district: Democratic Bakersfield City Councilman Andrae Gonzales, Democratic nurse Ana Palacio, and Republican Mayor of McFarland Saul Ayon.
Gonzales is a standard Democrat, promising to expand access to early childhood education, cut costs, and expand access to healthcare. He’s backed by the California Democratic Party, State Treasurer Ma, State Assembly Speaker Rivas, a bunch of legislators/local elected officials, and a bunch of unions. Palacio is a liberal, focusing on expanding access to healthcare, raising wages for the working class, and expanding access to affordable housing. She’s backed by the Working Families Party and the SEIU. Ayon is a moderate, promising to protect local water rights, support law enforcement, and lower taxes. Gonzales leads the pack in fundraising, followed by Ayon and Palacio. Ayon has a spot locked down and will probably be joined in November by Gonzales.
AD-36 (Imperial/eastern Riverside Counties, Trump+1) (R-Held):
After Republican Jeff Gonzalez surprisingly flipped this ultra-competitive seat red in 2024, the Democrats immediately set out to win it back. Now, they’ll get to decide their nominee tonight as Gonzalez faces three opponents in the primary: Democratic Imperial City Councilwoman Ida Obeso-Martinez, former Democratic El Centro City Councilman Tomas Oliva, and Democratic Indio City Councilman Oscar Ortiz.
Gonzalez is a moderate, wanting to cut taxes, hire more teachers, and improve bipartisanship. Obeso-Martinez is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand access to healthcare, expand funding for public education, and improve public safety. She’s backed by CA-25 Congressman Raul Ruiz, Assembly Speaker Rivas, several state legislators/local elected officials, and a few local unions. Oliva is also a standard Democrat, wanting to protect access to rural healthcare, expand economic development, and improve local transit. He’s backed by several local elected officials and the Teamsters. Ortiz is a liberal, wanting to expand access to affordable housing, cut healthcare costs, and expand the green economy. He’s backed by several state legislators/local elected officials, a bunch of unions (most notably the AFL-CIO and the SEIU), and the Working Families Party. Gonzalez leads the four in fundraising, with Obeso-Martinez & Ortiz duking it out for second and Oliva lagging behind both. Gonzalez has a spot locked down, but I think the second one goes to Ortiz. That’s mostly because I think Oliva takes more of the Imperial County vote away from Obeso-Martinez, letting Ortiz get a win in Riverside to push him to a November match with Gonzalez.
AD-40 (Santa Clarita/northwestern Los Angeles, Harris+8) (D-Held):
Democratic incumbent Pilar Schiavo has three opponents in the primary for this Democratic-leaning district: former Republican Crescenta Valley Town Councilwoman Elizabeth Wong Ahlers, Republican businessman Andreas Farmakalidas, and Republican businessman Rickey Tracy Hayes. Schiavo is a standard Democrat, touting her efforts to cut costs, protect small businesses from retail thefts, and expand access to housing/childcare. Ahlers is a conservative, promising to stop “radical ideologies” in classrooms, cut taxes, and crack down on crime. She’s backed by former CA-27 Congressman Mike Garcia, Assembly Minority Leader Heath Flora, and several local elected officials. Farmakalidas is a standard Republican, wanting to cut costs and crack down on crime. Hayes is mostly focused on energy production and opposing data centers. Schiavo and Ahlers are the favorites here.
AD-42 (Eastern Ventura County/western Los Angeles, Harris+14) (D-Held):
With Democratic incumbent Jacqui Irwin term-limited/running for CA-26, three candidates are running to replace her in this solidly Democratic district: Democratic Agoura Hills City Councilwoman Deborah Klein Lopez, Republican Simi Valley City Councilman Rocky Rhodes, and Republican businessman/2024 nominee Ted Nordblum.
Lopez is a standard Democrat, focusing on improving disaster preparedness, improving public safety, and expanding access to affordable housing. Rhodes, not to be confused with the ice cream flavor, is a standard Republican. He wants to cut “government waste,” support local law enforcement, and cut taxes. He’s backed by several state legislators/local elected officials. Nordblum is also running as a standard Republican, wanting to cut taxes, crack down on crime, and empower “parental rights” in education. He’s backed by the Ventura County Republican Party and several local elected officials. Lopez leads the three in fundraising by a wide margin, with Rhodes outpacing Nordblum for second. Lopez has a spot locked down and I think Norblum gets the second spot thanks to institutional support and name recognition from 2024.
AD-44 (Glendale/Burbank area, Harris+33) (D-Held):
Democratic incumbent Nick Schultz has two opponents in tonight’s primary in this deeply Democratic district: Republican nonprofit official Carolyn Daniels and Republican dentist Charlotte Gerry. Schultz is a standard Democrat, touting his efforts to make it easier to build housing, expand funding for public education, and cut costs. Daniels is a standard Republican, focusing on cutting costs, improving fiscal transparency, and cracking down on crime. She’s backed by several conservative grassroots groups. Gerry has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised much money. Schultz and Daniels should win this one.
AD-47 (Central Riverside/southern San Bernardino Counties, Harris+4) (R-Held):
Republican incumbent Greg Wallis is going to find out his Democratic opponent for November tonight in what’s shaping up to be a must-watch race in this ultra-competitive district. Alongside Wallis, two Democrats are running in tonight’s primary: businessman Jason Byors and union president Leila Namvar.
Wallis is a moderate, focusing on cutting taxes, improving teacher pay, and cutting homelessness. Byors is a liberal, wanting to stand up to the Trump Administration, build more housing, and expand access to healthcare. He’s backed by several local elected officials. Namvar is also a liberal, promising to take on “corporate greed,” expand access to affordable housing, and expand access to healthcare. She’s backed by a bunch of unions, most notably the AFL-CIO and the SEIU. Wallis leads the three in fundraising, with Namvar outpacing Byors for second place. Wallis has a spot guaranteed and I think Namvar’s union support gets her the second spot.
AD-50 (Fontana/Rancho Cucamonga area, Harris+10) (D-Held):
Democratic incumbent Robert Garcia has two opponents in tonight’s primary: Republican school board member Victoria Mageno and Independent teacher Roberto Moreno. Garcia is a standard Democrat, touting his efforts to improve public safety, expand funding for public education, and cut costs. Mageno doesn’t have much of a campaign platform online. Moreno doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online. Garcia and Mageno should win here.
AD-51 (Hollywood (Los Angeles) to Santa Monica, Harris+52) (D-Held):
Democratic incumbent Rick Chavez Zbur is facing four opponents in tonight’s primary for this deeply Democratic district: Democratic activist Colin Hernandez, Republican businessman Michael Geraghty, Republican military recruiter Jake Head, and Independent businessman Dick Lucas. Zbur is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand access to affordable housing, improve public safety, and crack down on gun crime. Hernandez is a progressive, wanting to establish universal childcare, raise taxes on billionaires, and abolish ICE. He’s backed by a few progressive grassroots groups. Geraghty is a conservative, promising to crack down on crime, expand economic development, and protect women’s rights from transgender individuals. Head is a standard Republican, wanting to cut taxes, crack down on crime, and stop “government waste.” Lucas wants to cut taxes, government spending, and homelessness. Zbur and Geraghty are the only two candidates to raise money, so they’ll probably make it to November, but I could see Hernandez snatching a spot from Geraghty thanks to vote splitting from Head.
AD-55 (Mid-City (Los Angeles)/Culver City area, Harris+62) (D-Held):
Democratic incumbent Isaac Bryan has three opponents in the primary for this deeply Democratic district: Democratic mental health professional Ashley Brown, Republican software engineer Keith Cascio, and Independent community activist William “Billion” Campbell. Bryan is a liberal, promising to “put people first,” create a “livable wage,” and protect the environment. Brown is a liberal, wanting to expand access to mental healthcare, expand funding for public education, and improve public safety through violence prevention programs. Cascio is a moderate, wanting to improve public safety, expand access to healthcare, and create a pathway to citizenship for immigrants. Campbell is mostly focused on supporting the Black community in this district (who make up 23% of this district). Bryan has a spot locked down, but the battle for second between Brown and Cascio will be close. I think Cascio gets the spot, but don’t count Brown out.
AD-60 (Moreno Valley/Perris area, Harris+8) (D-Held):
Democratic incumbent Corey Jackson is facing two opponents in the primary for this Democratic-leaning district: Republican Moreno Valley City Councilman Ed Delgado and Republican businessman/2024 nominee Ron Edwards. Jackson doesn’t have a campaign presence online, but he’s been a reliable liberal vote in the Assembly. Delgado is a standard Republican, wanting to crack down on crime, and cut costs. He’s backed by CA-41 Congressman Ken Calvert, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, Assembly Minority Leader Flora, several state legislators, a bunch of local elected officials, the Riverside County Republican Party, and the Fraternal Order of Police. Edwards is a conservative, promising to crack down on crime, “preserve the family unit,” and defend “American Sovereignty.” Jackson leads the three in fundraising, with Delgado easily outpacing Edwards for second place. Jackson has a spot locked down and I think he’ll be joined by Delgado, but I could see Edwards’s name recognition from 2024 getting him that spot instead.
AD-65 (Compton to southern Los Angeles, Harris+43.5) (D-Held):
Six candidates are running to succeed term-limited Democratic incumbent Mike Gipson in this deeply Democratic district: Democratic doctor Vinson Eugene Allen, Democratic school board member Ayanna Davis, Democratic teacher Fatima Iqbal-Zubair, Democratic Neighborhood Council President Lamar Lyons, Democratic activist Magali Sanchez-Hall, and Republican teacher Lydia Gutierrez.
Allen is a standard Democrat, promising to expand access to healthcare, cut costs, and improve community safety. He’s backed by several local elected officials. Davis is also a standard Democrat, wanting to expand funding for public education, build more housing, and improve public safety. She’s backed by outgoing Assemblyman Gipson, CA-29 Congresswoman Rivas, State Treasurer Ma, State Controller Cohen, State Superintendent Thurmond, State Assembly Speaker Rivas, a bunch of legislators/local elected officials, and a bunch of unions. Iqbal-Zubair (who has run here multiple times against Gipson) is a progressive, promising to create a “living wage,” protect workers’ rights, and expand access to healthcare. She’s backed by CA-44 Congresswoman Nanette Barran, US Senator Bernie Sanders, several legislators/local elected officials, Dolores Huerta, several unions, and the Working Families Party. Lyons is a liberal, wanting to expand economic development, build more affordable housing, and fight for “environmental justice.” Sanchez-Hall is a liberal, wanting to expand access to mental healthcare, expand funding for public education, and raise wages for workers. Gutierrez has no campaign presence online, has raised no money, and is pretty much just a perennial candidate at this point.
Davis leads the six in fundraising, with Iqbal-Zubair close behind her and Allen a little bit further back. Lyons lags behind the three and Sanchez-Hall/Gutierrez have raised pretty much no money. I think Davis snags the top spot here and Iqbal-Zubair narrowly outpaces Gutierrez for the second spot.
AD-66 (Torrance/coastal Los Angeles County, Harris+23) (D-Held):
Six candidates are running to succeed term-limited Democratic incumbent Al Muratsuchi in this deeply Democratic district: Democratic school board member Sara Deen, Democratic businessman Scott Houston, Democratic Neighborhood Councilwoman Shannon Ruiz-Ross, Democratic Mayor of Rancho Palos Verdes Paul Seo, Republican businessman/2024 candidate George Barks, and Republican nurse Jessica Maldonado.
Deen is a standard Democrat, promising to restore “fiscal discipline,” cut costs, and expand access to healthcare. She’s backed by several unions and several YIMBY groups. Houston is a liberal, promising to aggressively fight climate change, protect the “essential character” of the area, and defend reproductive rights. He’s backed by CA-29 Congresswoman Rivas, several state legislators, a bunch of local elected officials, and several unions. Ruiz-Ross is a standard Democrat, promising to protect union jobs, expand access to housing, and expand access to healthcare. She’s backed by CA-44 Congresswoman Barragan, several state legislators/local elected officials, and several unions. Seo is a standard Democrat, focusing on cutting costs, expanding funding for law enforcement, and expanding economic development. He’s backed by US Senator Adam Schiff, CA-28 Congresswoman Judy Chu, State Treasurer Ma, State Attorney General Bonta, several state legislators/local elected officials, the SEIU, and the Fraternal Order of Police. Barks is a conservative, promising to crack down on crime, cut taxes, and stop “CRT/Gender Fluidity” in schools. Maldonado is a standard Republican, promising to crack down on crime, restore “parental rights,” and restore the “character of our communities.” She’s backed by several local elected officials, several conservative grassroots groups, and something called the AI Party of California.
Seo leads the pack in fundraising, followed shortly behind by Deen. Houston is trying to catch up to both of them, while Ruiz-Ross is lagging behind all three of them. Barks and Maldonado have not reported raising any money. I think Seo will get a spot here by virtue of being a local elected official/establishment support, with Maldonado grabbing the second spot. I could see Barks getting the spot based on his name recognition from 2024 or even Deen getting it, but for now I think we head to November with Seo & Maldonado in the top two.
AD-67 (Buena Park/western Anaheim area, Harris+10) (D-Held):
Six candidates are running to succeed term-limited Democratic incumbent Sharon Quirk-Silva in this solidly Democratic district: Democratic union president Ada Briceno, Democratic Buena Park Planning Commissioner Paul Gonzales, Democratic Cerritos City Councilman Mark Pulido, Democratic Artesia City Councilman Ali Taj, Republican businessman Adrian Ayaub, and Republican police officer Paulo Morales.
Briceno is a progressive, touting her efforts to fight for minimum wage increases, expand workers’ rights, and protect renters/build more affordable housing. She’s backed by US Senator Alex Padilla, US Senator Bernie Sanders, the California Democratic Party, several Congresspeople, Lieutenant Governor Kounalakis, State Superintendent Thurmond, State Treasurer Ma, State Controller Cohen, a bunch of state legislators/local elected officials, the Working Families Party, and a bunch of unions. Gonzales is a liberal, wanting to end the war in Iran, stop ICE raids, and end the Russo-Ukrainian War. Pulido is a standard Democrat, focusing on improving public safety, improving local infrastructure, and expanding economic development. He’s backed by State Attorney General Bonta, State Treasurer Ma, several Congresspeople/state legislators/local elected officials, a bunch of unions (notably IBEW & LiUNA), and the California Chamber of Commerce. Taj is also a standard Democrat, promising to cut red tape for businesses, stand up to the Trump Administration, and reduce “insider influence” in Sacramento. He’s backed by US Senator Adam Schiff, State Treasurer Ma (she endorsed three people again!), CA-45 Congressman Derek Tran, several state legislators/local elected officials, and several police/firefighter unions. Ayub is a conservative, promising to cut taxes, end human trafficking, and reopen state mental hospitals to put homeless residents in. He’s backed by several conservative grassroots groups. Morales is a standard Republican, promising to cut costs, expand school choice, and crack down on crime. He’s backed by the Los Angeles/Orange County Republican Parties and Assembly Minority Leader Flora.
Briceno leads the six in fundraising, followed by Pulido and Taj, with Morales, Gonzales, & Ayub lagging far behind the top three. Let’s get this out of the way, there’s an outside chance at a lockout here for the Democrats. They have three well-funded/well-endorsed candidates running while the Republicans have two candidates with their respective bases (grassroots and establishment). I don’t think that’s going to happen though, mostly because Democratic turnout is actually holding up well here. But that also means the range of outcomes for the top two is a bit wide. I’ll go with Briceno and Morales to get those two spots, but it’s a pure toss-up.
AD-68 (Santa Ana/Orange/eastern Anaheim, Harris+22) (D-Held):
Four candidates are running to succeed retiring Democratic incumbent Avelino Valencia (who is running for State Senate) in this deeply Democratic district: Democratic Santa Ana City Councilwoman Jessie Lopez, Democratic Santa Ana City Councilman David Penaloza, Democratic Juaneño Band of Mission Indians Tribal Councilwoman Shannon Wingfield, and Republican businesswoman Mayra Ruiz.
Lopez is a progressive, wanting to cut costs, raise wages, and stand up to ICE/the Trump Administration. She’s backed by CA-45 Congressman Tran, US Senator Bernie Sanders, several state legislators/local elected officials, several unions, and several progressive grassroots groups. Penaloza is a standard Democrat, wanting to cut costs, improve public safety, and expand funding for public education. He’s backed by the California Democratic Party, CA-47 Congressman David Min, Assembly Speaker Rivas, outgoing Assemblyman Valencia, several state legislators/local elected officials, and a bunch of unions. Wingfield is a standard Democrat, promising to cut costs, improve public safety, and cut taxes for working families. She’d be the first Native American woman ever elected to the State Assembly if she wins, but she hasn’t attracted any endorsements or raised any money. Ruiz is a moderate Republican, wanting to improve public safety, cut costs, and expand government transparency. Penaloza narrowly leads Lopez in fundraising, with Ruiz lagging far behind both candidates. I think Penaloza and Ruiz win here.
AD-72 (Coastal Orange County, Trump+3) (R-Held):
Four candidates are running to succeed retiring Republican incumbent Diane Dixon in this Republican-leaning district, including one name my Minnesota Viking fans might be familiar with: former Democratic NFL punter Chris Kluwe, Republican former State Assemblyman Matthew Harper, Republican Huntington Beach City Councilwoman Gracey Van Der Mark, and Independent businessman Frank Wagoner.
Kluwe is a liberal, wanting to build more affordable housing, expand funding for public education, and fight climate change. He’s backed by Congressmen Robert Garcia, Derek Tran, David Min, & Mike Levin, State Attorney General Bonta, several state legislators/local elected officials, a bunch of unions, and the Working Families Party. Harper is a standard Republican, wanting to cut taxes, improve local education, and defend “freedom, liberty, and the Constitution.” He’s backed by the Orange County Register. Van Der Mark is a conservative, touting her efforts to expand “parental rights” in education, fight for voter ID, and crack down on homelessness. She’s backed by the California Republican Party, a bunch of state legislators/local elected officials, and former US Ambassador to Germany Ric Grenell. Wagoner wants to cut “wasteful spending” and crack down on crime. Kluwe leads the four in fundraising, with Van Der Mark in second, Harper lagging behind them, and Wagoner not raising any money. Kluwe has a spot locked down and will probably be joined by Van Der Mark. That’s good for Democratic hopes of flipping the district, because Van Der Mark is right-wing enough to put this Trump-won district in toss-up territory in November.
AD-78 (Northern San Diego, Harris+36) (D-Held):
Democratic incumbent Chris Ward has two opponents in tonight’s primary for this deeply Democratic district: Republican political aide Payton Galvez and Libertarian businessman Antonio Salguero. Ward is a liberal, wanting to expand economic development, build more housing for homeless residents, and fight climate change. Galvez has no campaign presence online, but he is an aide to right-wing Assemblyman Carl DeMaio, so that should tell you about his views. Salguero is promising to defend the 2nd Amendment, abolish property taxes, and reform the family court system. Ward and Galvez are the favorites here.
AD-80 (Chula Vista/southern San Diego, Harris+17) (D-Held):
Democratic incumbent David Alvarez is facing two opponents in the primary for this deeply Democratic district: Democratic businesswoman Zenith Khan and Republican businessman Alejandro Galicia. Alvarez doesn’t have much of a campaign platform online, but he’s been a reliably liberal vote in the Assembly. Khan has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Galicia also has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Alvarez and Galicia should make the top two here.
And that’s it for this edition of Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch. I’ll be back next week to cover primaries going down in Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, & South Carolina! Until then, I’ve been Uncrewed/Chris (you can follow me on Twitter @Uncrewed, same on Bluesky!) and don’t forget to stay awesome!