State Legislative Election Watch- 2026 Iowa Primary Preview
Covering all of the state legislative primaries going down in Iowa tomorrow!
STATE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION WATCH- 2026 Iowa Primary Preview
INTRO:
Hello everyone and welcome to Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch! I’m Uncrewed/Chris and this is your one-stop-shop to everything you need to know about state legislative elections from around the country. We’ve got five states holding primaries tomorrow: California, Iowa, Montana, New Mexico, & South Dakota. We already covered Montana & South Dakota yesterday and New Mexico earlier today, so now we are onto Iowa! So, without further ado, let’s get to it!
SD-03 (Osceola County to Buena Vista County, Trump+47) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Lynn Evans is facing a primary challenge from Cherokee County Supervisor Shane Bellefy in this deeply Republican district.
Evans is a conservative, promising to defend property rights, cut property taxes, and defend the 2nd Amendment. He’s backed by the NRA, the anti-abortion Iowa Right to Life group, and several conservative grassroots groups. Bellefy is a standard Republican, promising to cut regulations for farmers, cut costs, and expand senior services. Bellefy has a slight financial advantage over Evans, but I think Evans’s incumbency and more-in-touch-with-the-base platform wins him this one over Bellefy. I’m not counting out Bellefy though, that financial advantage and status as a local elected official should keep him in this one.
SD-05 (Dickinson County to Winnebago County, Trump+41) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Dave Rowley is trying to fend off a challenge from conservative activist Stacy Besch in this deeply Republican district. Rowley is a conservative, touting his efforts to cut taxes, ban “DEI,” and restrict abortion. Besch calls herself a “Christian Conservative,” who wants to eradicate human trafficking, expand “medical freedom,” and “bring back morality” by banning “DEI” in schools and replacing it with The Bible and The 10 Commandments. She’s backed by a few conservative grassroots groups. Rowley has a solid financial advantage over Besch and has incumbency on his side, so he should be fine.
SD-11 (Warren/central Marion Counties, Trump+22) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Three Republicans are running to succeed retiring Republican incumbent Jullian Garrett in this deeply Republican district: former State Representative Jon Thorup, conservative activist Mandee Shivers, and Norwalk Economic Development Director Hollie Zajicek.
Thorup is a standard Republican, promising to protect property rights, lower property taxes, and protect water rights. He’s backed by the Iowa Professional Fire Fighters and several State Representatives. Shivers is a right-winger, opposing abortion, opposing same-sex marriage, and wanting to expand school choice/”parental rights” in education. She’s backed by several conservative grassroots groups. Zajicek is a standard Republican, promising to expand economic development, protect “freedoms,” and improve public safety. She’s backed by Governor Kim Reynolds and former Governor/US Ambassador to China Terry Branstad. Shivers leads the three in fundraising, but Thorup has a wide spending advantage. Pure toss-up here, as all three candidates have an advantage. Thorup has some name recognition from his time in the State House and a spending advantage, Shivers has the grassroots, and Zajicek has the establishment behind her. In the end, I’ll go with Shivers to win thanks to the establishment vote being split between Thorup and Zajicek.
SD-13 (Wapello/Appanoose/Davis/Monroe Counties, Trump+40) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Three Republicans are running to succeed retiring Republican incumbent/mid-90’s alternative band The Rentals member Cherielynn Westrich in this deeply Republican district: businessman Edwin Brand, businessman Austin Garmon, and Appanoose County Supervisor Jeff Kulmatycki.
Brand doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online and has already spent all of the money he raised for his campaign (which was only under $5k). Garmon is running on a vaguely conservative platform of promising to fight for “our children, our rights, our health, & our wallets.” He’s backed by outgoing Senator Westrich. Kulmatycki is also running a vaguely conservative campaign, promising to “defend our freedoms, protect our families, and make sure rural Iowa is never left behind.” He has a wide financial advantage over his two opponents, so I think that (alongside his status as a local elected official) will be enough to get him the win here.
SD-17 (Northern Des Moines, Harris+36) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Two Democrats are running to succeed retiring Democratic incumbent Izaah Knox in this deeply Democratic district: teacher Samy El-Baroudi and businesswoman Grace Van Cleave.
El-Baroudi is a progressive, wanting to expand funding for public education, raise Iowa’s minimum wage, and protect the LGBTQ+ community/other vulnerable minority groups. He’s backed by Iowa’s largest teachers union (the Iowa State Education Association) and several local elected officials. Van Cleave is a standard Democrat, focusing on cutting costs and expanding funding for public education. She’s backed by several state legislators. She has a wide financial advantage over El-Baroudi as well. I think Van Cleave wins this one based on that, but El-Baroudi has some very impressive endorsements that should keep him in this one, maybe even win him this one. Let’s put it like this, I’m not counting out a progressive in an open, Harris+36 district, that would be foolish of me to do that.
SD-19 (Jasper/eastern Marion/western Mahaska Counties, Trump+35) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Two Republicans are running to succeed retiring Republican incumbent Ken Rozenboom in this deeply Republican district: State Representative Barb Kniff McCulla and US Navy veteran Bob Eschliman.
McCulla is a standard Republican, wanting to cut taxes, improve public safety, and expand economic development. She’s backed by outgoing Senator Rozenboom. Eschliman is a conservative, opposing abortion, promising to protect property rights, and promising to “rein in” the Governor’s office. That’s not because Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand stands a good chance at becoming the next Governor, it’s because he thinks current Republican Governor Kim Reynolds went too far with COVID-19 restrictions. McCulla has a wide financial advantage over Eschliman and should be able to use that (alongside strong name recognition from representing half of this district in the State House) to lead her to victory tomorrow.
SD-23 (Northern Polk/eastern Dallas Counties, Trump+17) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
While Republican incumbent Jack Whitver is retiring from this solidly Republican district in suburban/exurban Des Moines, it’s not technically open. That’s because SD-21 Republican Senator Mike Bousselot has decided to carpetbag over here! Yeah, I guess Bousselot correctly read the room and saw that winning a Trump+2 district in a Democratic midterm was a lost cause, so he’s running here instead. To be unfair to him, it’s a naked power grab, but to be fair to him it’s literally right next to his current district, so he’s not pulling a Lauren Boebert in Colorado:
Anyway, he’s being challenged in his carpetbag primary by political aide/former Bondurant City Councilman Wes Enos.
Bousselot is promising to “put Iowa First” by cutting taxes, cutting costs, and stopping “men in girls’ sports.” He’s backed by Governor Reynolds, former Governor Branstad, the NRA, and the Iowa Farm Bureau. Enos is a conservative, promising to protect property rights, cut taxes, and defend the 2nd Amendment. He has attacked Bousselot for carpetbagging, touting his own roots in the district by saying that this is his home, not a “convenient place to run for office.” Bousselot has a wide financial advantage over Enos. I think Bousselot wins here, but I expect Enos to put up a good performance as a bit of a “carpetbag penalty” for lack of a better term for Bousselot.
SD-27 (Hardin County to Poweshiek County, Trump+29.5) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Annette Sweeney is facing a primary challenge from businessman Rocky Damiano in this deeply Republican district. Sweeney is a standard Republican, focusing on protecting farmers, expanding workforce development programs, and cutting taxes. She’s backed by State Agriculture Secretary Mike Naig. Damiano is a conservative, promising to be a “strong, conservative leader” who will protect private property rights and support small businesses. Sweeney has a wide financial advantage over Damiano and should be able to use that and incumbency to get the win here.
HD-01 (Western Sioux City, Trump+2) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Two Democrats are running to succeed retiring Democratic incumbent/part-time baseball player JD Scholten in this ultra-competitive district: community activist Kenny Kroll and teacher Shawn Olorundami.
Kroll wants to protect local natural resources and cut property taxes. Olorundami is a liberal, promising to expand funding for public education, raise the minimum wage, and enact a paid parental leave program. He’s backed by the AFL-CIO and has a solid financial advantage over Kroll, so he should win this one.
HD-05 (Osceola County to western Buena Vista County, Trump+55) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Two Republicans are running to succeed retiring Republican incumbent Zach Dieken in this deeply Republican district: farmer Keith Glienke and teacher Michael Schnoes.
Glienke is a conservative, focusing on expanding economic development and defeating “DEI” in Iowa. He’s backed by State Senator Lynn Evans (who represents this district in the State Senate). Schnoes, who ran here in 2024 as an Independent and lost by 56 points, is also a conservative. He wants to cut property taxes, expand “parental rights,” and protect property rights. He hasn’t raised any money for his campaign, compared to over $5k for Glienke, so Glienke should win this one.
HD-12 (Crawford/Ida/northern Shelby Counties, Trump+46) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
We surprisingly have a Democratic primary in this deeply Republican district! Two Democrats are running here: 2024 nominee Dustin Durbin and theater manager Brady Meyer. Durbin is a standard Democrat, focusing on protecting property rights, cutting costs, and expanding funding for public education. Meyer is running on a vague platform of improving “fairness, transparency, and affordability.” Neither candidate has raised much money, so I think Durbin wins here thanks to name recognition from 2024.
HD-15 (Harrison/western Pottawattamie Counties, Trump+35) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Three Republicans are running to replace retiring Republican incumbent Matt Windschitl in this deeply Republican district: farmer Jason Sherer, Harrison County Republican Party Chairwoman Toni Waite, and photographer/perennial candidate Bryan Jack Holder.
Sherer is a conservative, promising to oppose abortion, cut taxes, and promote “family values.” Waite is also a conservative, promising to shrink the size of the government, cut taxes, and defend the 2nd Amendment. Holder is a conservative, promising to defend the Constitution and oppose data centers. Sherer leads the pack in fundraising, followed by Waite (while Holder hasn’t raised any money). I think Sherer’s money wins him this one, but Holder’s status as the Harrison County GOP Chair could give her the win here.
HD-17 (Union County to southern Page County, Trump+44) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Devon Wood is facing a primary challenge from farmer Shaun Kelley in this deeply Republican district. Wood is a conservative, promising to protect farmers, expand “parental rights” in education, and defend the 2nd Amendment. Kelley, who ran for State House in 2020 as a Democrat, is a moderate running on a platform of bipartisanship. He hasn’t raised any money for his campaign though, so Wood should win this one easily.
HD-24 (Clarke/Lucas/Decatur/Wayne Counties, Trump+48) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
If you thought a Democratic primary in a Trump+46 district was surprising, let me introduce you to a Democratic primary in a Trump+48 district! Two Democrats are running in this deeply Republican district: Osceola City Councilwoman/2024 nominee Sonya Hicks and community activist Paul Davis. Hicks is seemingly running entirely on protecting public education and stopping tax dollars from going to private/charter schools. Davis is a pretty interesting guy, having been a sports broadcaster 20-30 years ago, even apparently becoming a bit of a mentor to someone who is now a lead NFL announcer, Jim Nantz! He’s a moderate, promising to end political polarization, expand access to affordable healthcare, and expand funding for mental healthcare. Davis has a huge financial advantage over Hicks, but I think Hicks’s name recognition from the Osceola City Council and from her 2024 run here gets her the win.
HD-33 (Northeastern Des Moines, Harris+25) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
With Democratic incumbent Ruth Ann Gaines retiring, four Democrats are running to replace her in this deeply Democratic district: nonprofit executive Ivette Muhammad, US Army veteran Randolph Scott, progressive activist Cody Smith, and nonprofit official Blake Clyde.
Muhammad is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand economic development, improve community safety, and cut taxes for working families. She also has a whole section of her website devoted to three different “theme songs” for her campaign. Yes, before you ask, they sound AI-generated. She’s backed by outgoing Representative Gaines. Scott is also a standard Democrat, wanting to strengthen public health, expand funding for public education, and cut costs. Smith is a progressive, wanting to expand funding for climate change resiliency, defend the LGBTQ+ community, and raise Iowa’s minimum wage. Clyde is a liberal, wanting to expand access to affordable housing, cut costs for working families, and expand funding for public education. He’s backed by Run For Something. Muhammad has a wide financial advantage, with Smith & Clyde lagging far behind and Scott not raising any money. Muhammad should be the favorite here.
HD-37 (Eastern Marion/western Mahaska Counties, Trump+44) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
With Republican incumbent Barb McCulla retiring in order to run for State Senate, two Republicans are running to succeed her in this deeply Republican district: Marion County Sheriff Jason Sandholdt and businessman Chase Spencer.
Sandholdt is a standard Republican, focusing on governing with “fiscal responsibility,” cutting taxes, and protecting property rights. He’s backed by a few local county sheriffs. Spencer is running on a similar platform, promising to support expanding economic development, expanding local control, and protecting property rights. Sandholdt has a solid financial advantage over Spencer and should be able to parlay that (and his name recognition as Marion County Sheriff) into a win tomorrow.
HD-43 (Johnston area, Harris+4) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
In one of the more head-scratching state legislative moves I’ve seen all year, Republican incumbent Eddie Andrews decided to leave this Democratic-leaning seat in suburban Des Moines in order to run for Governor. He’s currently polling around last place and now the Republicans have a contested primary to replace him. Three Republicans are running: businessman Russ Saffell, businesswoman Nicole Hasso, and perennial candidate Brett Nelson.
Saffell is a conservative, touting his support for “medical freedom,” “fiscal responsibility,” and “individual liberty.” Hasso is a standard Republican, promising to protect property rights, cut property taxes, and expand economic development. She’s backed by outgoing Representative Andrews, Governor Reynolds, and former Governor Branstad. Nelson has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money. Speaking of money, Hasso has a wide financial advantage over Saffell. She should be the favorite here given her financial and institutional advantage over Saffell. Either way, whoever wins here will be in for a very tough fight to keep this district in Republican hands come November.
HD-45 (Northern Polk County, Trump+24) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Brian Lohse is facing a primary challenge from former high school football coach Austin Stubbs in this deeply Republican district.
Lohse is a standard Republican, touting his efforts to fight for “bipartisan solutions,” expand economic development, and fight for “family values.” He’s backed by IA-03 Congressman Zach Nunn and several state legislators/local elected officials. Stubbs is a right-winger, having gotten his start in politics after being suspended from coaching football in 2021 for doing this:
(KCCI Des Moines)
Would you be shocked if I told you that Stubbs blamed the “woke minority” on him being suspended. He promises to support the 1st Amendment, stop human trafficking, and fight against “radical gender policies.” He’s backed by the Koch-aligned Americans For Prosperity group and several conservative grassroots groups. Lohse is clearly worried about Stubbs, but instead of trying to bring up him nearly killing his players, he seems to be more focused on calling him a “European athlete.” Take a look at what I mean:
Lohse is running the first anti-European campaign since the Cold War ended. Jokes aside, Lohse has a solid financial advantage over Stubbs. Still, Lohse seems clearly worried about Stubbs, so while I think Lohse wins, keep an eye out here for an upset win for Stubbs.
HD-46 (Grimes/eastern Dallas County, Trump+9) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Three Democrats are running in this Republican-leaning district in suburban Des Moines: physician assistant Mandy Newton Rosenow, progressive activist Annie Craven, and social worker Erin Helleso.
Rosenow is a standard Democrat, promising to cut costs, expand funding for public education, and expand access to healthcare. Craven is a liberal, promising to crack down on price gouging, expand access to healthcare (which she calls a human right), and protect the LGBTQ+ community. She’s backed by Run For Something. Helleso is a standard Democrat, promising to expand funding for public education, protect natural resources, and reform the criminal justice system. She’s faced a bit of controversy as she’s currently facing disciplinary charges from the Iowa State Board of Behavioral Professionals (the licensing board for social workers) for failing to disclose conflicts of interest. Rosenow has a wide financial advantage over Craven, with Helleso not raising much money. I’ll give the edge to Rosenow here, but Craven’s got some pretty good progressive grassroots support that could push her over the finish line.
HD-47 (Guthrie/Greene/northern Dallas Counties, Trump+29) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):
Both parties have contested primaries in this deeply Republican district. Starting with the Republican primary, where Republican incumbent Carter Nordman is trying to fend off a challenge from real estate agent Jeremy King. Nordman is a right-winger, touting his votes to “protect girls sports,” cut taxes, and “eliminate DEI.” He’s backed by IA-03 Congressman Zach Nunn, State Attorney General Brenna Bird, Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig, and a bunch of local elected officials. King is a conservative, touting his opposition to abortion, support for the 2nd Amendment, and support for “removing DEI.” Nordman has a huge financial advantage over King, so he should win this one.
On the Democratic side, two candidates are running: filmmaker Chris New and UPS driver Charley Newman. New is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand funding for public education, expand access to affordable healthcare, and cut red tape for businesses. Newman doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online outside of sharing liberal Facebook reels. New has slightly outpaced Newman in fundraising, but I’ll give him the edge for being the only candidate with a real presence online.
HD-48 (Boone County/southern Ames, Trump+18) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Three Democrats are running in this solidly Republican district: engineer Benjamin Olsen, businessman Daniel Wojcik, and progressive activist Guy Morgan. Olsen is a standard Democrat, wanting to improve water quality, expand funding for public education, and expand rural economic development. Wojcik doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online. Morgan is a progressive, promising to hold corporations “accountable” for destroying the environment, expand equal rights, and expand renewable energy. None of the three have raised much money, so this is pretty much a toss-up. I’ll go with Morgan to win though.
HD-51 (Eastern Story/western Marshall Counties, Trump+21) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Brett Barker is facing a primary challenge from conservative activist Shane Heintz in this deeply Republican district. Barker is a standard Republican, touting his efforts to cut taxes, support law enforcement, and empower “parental rights” in education. He’s backed by State Attorney General Brenna Bird. Heintz is a moderate, touting his support for property rights and opposition to school vouchers. Barker has a solid financial advantage and should be able to use his incumbency to get him the win.
HD-55 (Hamilton/Franklin/southern Wright Counties, Trump+32) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Two Republicans are running to replace retiring Republican incumbent Shannon Latham in this deeply Republican district: Roland Mayor Kurtis Bower and political aide Beau Klaver.
Bower is a conservative, promising to oppose abortion and support “medical freedom.” He’s backed by House Majority Leader Bobby Kaufmann. Klaver is a standard Republican, promising to protect farmers, expand economic development, and expand access to healthy foods. Klaver has a solid financial advantage over Bower. I think that gets him the win here, but I’m not counting out Bower winning.
HD-59 (Mason City area, Trump+5) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Christian Hermanson is facing a primary challenge from community activist Rugby Sliger in this ultra-competitive district. Hermanson is a conservative, promising to cut taxes, empower “parental rights” in education, and strengthen public safety. Sliger is a moderate, focusing on cutting costs, cutting property taxes, and supporting small businesses. Hermanson has a slight financial advantage over Sliger, but has outspent him by a wide margin. In fact, he’s dropped over $16k in spending here! That might have consequences for his November election, but for now it should mean a win here.
HD-60 (Mitchell/Worth/western Cerro Gordo Counties, Trump+29) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Jane Bloomingdale is facing a primary challenge from conservative activist Dani Ollenburg in this deeply Republican district. Bloomingdale is a standard Republican, touting her efforts to improve public safety, cut property taxes, and support “medical freedom.” She’s backed by several of her colleagues. Ollenburg is a conservative, attacking Bloomingdale for not being conservative enough on trans issues, abortion, and school choice. Bloomingdale has a wide financial advantage over Ollenburg and has incumbency on her side, so she should win this one.
HD-63 (Winneshiek/Howard Counties, Trump+18) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Michael Bergan is facing a primary challenge from field technician Matthew Smith in this solidly Republican district. Bergan doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but he’s been a bit of a moderate vote in the legislature. Smith is a conservative, promising to defend property rights, protect “parental rights” in education, and oppose abortion. He’s backed by former State Representative/probable IA-02 Republican nominee Joe Mitchell. Bergan has a solid financial advantage over Smith, but doesn’t really seem to be running much of a campaign. I think incumbency gives him the win, but I’m keeping my eye on this one.
HD-68 (Fayette/northern Buchanan/eastern Black Hawk Counties, Trump+30) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Chad Ingels is trying to fend off a primary challenge from farmer Adam Thimmesch in this deeply Republican district. Ingels doesn’t have much of a campaign platform online, but he’s been a moderate vote in the legislature. He’s backed by the NRA and the Iowa Farm Bureau. Thimmesch is a standard Republican, promising to protect farmers, protect families and children, and protect “individual freedoms.” He hasn’t raised much money for his campaign though, so Ingels should win this one.
HD-72 (Northern Dubuque, Trump+1) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
After losing this seat in 2024, the Democrats are eager to flip this ultra-competitive district back to team blue this year. They’ll first have to pick their nominee to challenge Republican incumbent Jennifer Smith. Two Democrats are running for said nomination: union carpenter Matt Robinson and Dubuque County Democratic Party Chairman Eli Licht.
Robinson is a liberal, wanting to raise the minimum wage, expand funding for public education, and protect workers’ rights. He’s backed by State Representative/probable IA-02 Democratic nominee Lindsay James and several unions. Licht is a standard Democrat, wanting to improve education, expand economic development, and generally improve the local quality of life. Robinson has a solid financial advantage over Licht. Combine that with his institutional support, I think Robinson wins this one.
HD-88 (Eastern Mahaska County to northern Jefferson County, Trump+49) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Here’s something I thought I would never say while writing this newsletter, there’s a convicted sex offender running for office. Yeah, nonprofit director Grant Hill is trying to unseat Republican incumbent Helena Hayes in this deeply Republican district. Hill was convicted of exposing himself to a 13 year old and for sexually assaulting a woman in the same year (2021) and now he leads a nonprofit dedicated to “rehabilitation.” Also joining Hill & Hayes is school board member Aaron Hinnah.
Hayes is a right-winger, promising to protect the “family unit,” oppose abortion, and defend the 2nd Amendment. She’s backed by the Iowa Farm Bureau and several conservative grassroots groups. Hinnah is a moderate, promising to put “people over politics,” improve teacher pay, and protect farmers. Hill is a standard Republican, wanting to improve government transparency, expand access to affordable health care, and implement “common-sense protections for those who built this state.” Hayes has a solid financial lead over Hinnah, with Hill raising no money (presumably because no one wants to be known as the person who donated money to a sex offender). Hayes should win this one, mostly because running as a moderate in one of the most Republican districts in the state probably isn’t the best idea. As for Hill, however many votes he gets will be way too many.
HD-96 (Muscatine area, Trump+12.5) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):
Both parties have contested primaries in this Republican-leaning district. Starting with the Republican primary, where Republican incumbent Mark Cisneros is facing a primary challenge from Muscatine City Councilman Matt Conard.
Cisneros doesn’t have much of a campaign platform online, but he’s been a reliably conservative vote in the legislature. He’s backed by the Iowa Farm Bureau and several of his colleagues in the legislature. Also, I found this while looking through his Facebook page:
It’s a fundraiser posted for Cisneros’s endorsed candidate for Governor (Brad Sherman). It’s really emblematic of the Republican Party that a convicted January 6th rioter was given top billing over Iowa’s first ever Hispanic state legislator. Anyway, Conard is a standard Republican. He wants to implement “fiscal stewardship,” protect private property rights, and improve government transparency. Cisneros has narrowly outpaced Conard in fundraising and should win here thanks to that and incumbency.
On the Democratic side, two candidates are running: businessman Nick Salazar and nonprofit official Michelle Servadio Elias. Salazar is a standard Democrat, focusing on cutting costs and supporting workers’ rights. He’s backed by the AFL-CIO. Elias, who also goes by Shelly, is a liberal. She wants to expand funding for public education, expand access to affordable healthcare (which she calls a human right), and support veterans. She hasn’t raised any money though, so I think Salazar wins this one.
HD-97 (Central Davenport, Harris+20) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
In the only case of an incumbent Democrat facing a primary challenge in Iowa this year, Democratic incumbent Ken Croken is facing a primary challenge from nonprofit director Adam Peters in this deeply Democratic district.
Croken is a standard Democrat, wanting to raise wages, expand funding for public education, and expand access to affordable healthcare. He’s backed by State Senator/Democratic candidate for US Senate Zach Wahls, several other state legislators, and several unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Peters is a progressive, focusing on protecting clean water, raising the minimum wage, and expanding access to healthcare (calling it a human right). He’s backed by former US Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, Run for Something, and several state legislators. Both men are neck-and-neck in fundraising. I think Croken’s incumbency wins this one for him, but Peters has run a very impressive campaign, so watch out for the upset win from him here.
HD-98 (Western Davenport area, Trump+2) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Two Democrats are running to succeed retiring Democratic incumbent Monica Kurth in this ultra-competitive district: automation technician Andrew Fitzgerald and teacher Ruth Ann Gallagher.
Fitzgerald is a liberal, wanting to expand funding for public education, expand access to healthcare (calling it a human right), and protect workers’ rights. He’s backed by outgoing Representative Kurth and the AFL-CIO. Gallagher is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand funding for public education, cut costs, and expand access to affordable housing. She hasn’t raised any money though, so Fitzgerald should win this one thanks to that and institutional support.
HD-99 (Burlington area, Trump+8) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Three Democrats are running for the party nod to challenge Republican incumbent Matthew Rinker in this Republican-leaning district: union official Marcques Derby, attorney Jennifer Kirkman, and attorney/2024 nominee Jim Beres.
Derby is a standard Democrat, promising to protect workers’ rights, expand access to affordable healthcare, and improve local education. He’s backed by the AFL-CIO. Kirkman is a standard Democrat, wanting to expand funding for public education, expand economic development, and protect workers’ rights. She’s backed by a few local elected officials. Beres is also a standard Democrat, wanting to improve public education and protect workers’ rights. Kirkman has a financial advantage over her two opponents, with Beres and Derby lagging behind her. Pure toss-up here, but I’ll go with Kirkman to win. I could see Derby’s union support or Beres’s name recognition from 2024 also pushing either of them over the finish line though.
And that’s it for this edition of Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch. I’ll be back tomorrow to cover the biggest state in the country, California! Until then, I’ve been Uncrewed/Chris (you can follow me on Twitter @Uncrewed, same on Bluesky!) and don’t forget to stay awesome!