State Legislative Election Watch- 2026 New Mexico Primary Preview
Covering all of the state legislative primaries going down in New Mexico tomorrow!
STATE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION WATCH- 2026 New Mexico Primary Preview
INTRO:
Hello everyone and welcome to Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch! I’m Uncrewed/Chris and this is your one-stop-shop to everything you need to know about state legislative elections from around the country. We’ve got five states holding primaries tomorrow: California, Iowa, Montana, New Mexico, & South Dakota. We already covered Montana & South Dakota yesterday, so today we’re covering Iowa & New Mexico. We’re starting with New Mexico, so, without further ado, let’s get to it!
HD-04 (Northern San Juan County, Harris+3) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Democratic incumbent Joseph Hernandez is facing a primary challenge from school board member Christina Aspaas in this Democratic-leaning district. Hernandez doesn’t have much of a campaign presence online, but he’s been a reliably Democratic vote on most issues in the House. Aspaas has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised much money for her campaign, so Hernandez should win this one.
HD-06 (Western Cibola/southern McKinley Counties, Harris+15) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Democratic incumbent Martha Garcia was appointed to this solidly Democratic seat in February 2025 and now she’s running for a full term. She’ll first have to fend off three opponents tomorrow: school board member Priscilla Benally, judge Johnny Valdez, and rancher David Alcon.
Garcia is a standard Democrat, focusing on lowering costs, improving local infrastructure, and improving public safety. She’s backed by Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham, the AFL-CIO, and several local elected officials. Benally, who ran here in 2024 and came within 300 votes of unseating the last incumbent, is mostly running on effective representation in Santa Fe. Valdez promises to bring a “common sense” approach and bring more jobs to the district. Alcon, the son of previous incumbent Eliseo Alcon, is a moderate. He wants to expand economic development, improve public safety, and expand energy production. He’s also faced controversy during this campaign for an old arrest for aggravated stalking (which came up during an aborted run for Congress in 2018 and actually caused the DCCC to disavow him) and new accusations of stalking and threatening a constituent. Garcia has a wide financial advantage, with Alcon being the only other opponent to even raise a fair amount of money. I think Garcia wins this one, but Alcon could sneak through if the vote is split, solely based on name recognition from his father.
HD-13 (Southwestern Albuquerque, Harris+14) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Democratic incumbent Patricia Roybal Caballero is facing a challenge from Albuquerque Housing Authority official Matt Archuleta in this solidly Democratic district. Caballero doesn’t have much of a campaign platform online, but she’s been a progressive vote in the legislature. She’s backed by former US Interior Secretary/gubernatorial candidate Deb Haaland, NM-02 Congressman Gabe Vasquez, and several state legislators/local elected officials. Archuleta is mostly focused on improving local infrastructure. Caballero has a wide financial advantage over Archuleta and has incumbency on her side, so she should win this easily.
HD-14 (South-central Albuquerque, Harris+35) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Democratic incumbent Miguel Garcia has represented this deeply Democratic district for the last 30 years, but he might be facing his toughest challenge yet in the form of attorney Joseph Romero.
Garcia is a liberal, promising to stand up against discrimination towards marginalized groups, improve local infrastructure, and protect water rights. He’s backed by the Working Families Party and several local unions. Romero is a standard Democrat, promising to cut costs, protect access to healthcare, and “unmask” ICE agents. He’s backed by the New Mexico Trial Lawyers Association, who are funding several candidates/allied incumbents this year in their quest to defeat candidates who want to reform malpractice laws. Their support has led to Romero easily outpacing Garcia in fundraising, but I think Garcia wins out here. The union support and incumbency will probably get him the win.
HD-16 (Central Albuquerque, Harris+20) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Democratic incumbent Yanira Gurrola is facing a primary challenge from teacher Marsella Duarte Serna in this deeply Democratic district.
Gurrola is a standard Democrat, focusing on cutting costs, expanding access to healthcare, and improving local education. She’s backed by former US Secretary of the Interior Haaland, a bunch of her colleagues in the legislature, several local elected officials, the Working Families Party, and a bunch of unions (most notably the AFL-CIO). Duarte Serna is a moderate, promising to focus on cutting crime and reducing homelessness. Gurrola already defeated Duarte Serna by a 64-36 margin in 2024 and once again has a wide financial advantage, so Gurrola should be fine here.
HD-27 (Tanoan area (Albuquerque), Harris+16) (D-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):
Both parties have contested primaries in this solidly Democratic district! On the Democratic side, Democratic incumbent Marian Matthews is facing a primary challenge from attorney Abby Foster.
Matthews is a standard Democrat, promising to protect homes for seniors, expand access to affordable healthcare, and improve family services. She’s backed by State House Speaker Javier Martinez and several local unions. She’s also faced backlash for voting against a paid family/medical leave program, which she has desperately tried to claim was a bad bill even though almost all of her fellow Democrats voted for it. She even brags about the fact that her primary opponent in 2024 ran against her solely on Matthews’s anti-paid family leave vote and “only” got 44% of the vote against a two-term incumbent. Speaking of opponents, Foster is running to her left. She supports rent control, wants to expand access to childcare, and supports paid family/medical leave. She’s backed by several local elected officials and the Working Families Party. The two are neck-and-neck in finances going into tomorrow. This one’s going to be close, but I think Foster actually unseats Matthews. She seems to be more on the backfoot compared to 2024 and Foster has racked up some impressive support.
On the Republican side, two candidates are running: conservative activist/perennial candidate Rob Godshall and nurse practitioner Jahnelle Garcia. Godshall wants to cut regulations, crack down on crime, and “hold students accountable for their own potential.” Garcia is a standard Republican, wanting to lower healthcare costs, cut red tape for businesses, and support “parental rights” in education. It’s kind of funny, Godshall’s perennial candidate status has actually become a bit of an issue in this campaign, with Garcia posting this on her campaign Facebook page:
She’s beaten out Godshall in fundraising by a wide margin too, so she might be favored here. Then again, Godshall has name recognition from his multiple runs for office. I’ll give the edge to Garcia, but a Godshall win based on name recognition wouldn’t shock me.
HD-30 (Northeastern Albuquerque, Harris+16) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Democratic incumbent Diane Torres-Velasquez and attorney Veronica Nadine Mireles are facing off in the Democratic primary for this solidly Democratic district.
Torres-Velasquez is a liberal, touting her efforts to expand access to childcare, improve local infrastructure, and expand access to affordable healthcare. She’s backed by the Working Families Party, the Sierra Club, and several unions. Mireles is a standard Democrat, wanting to protect access to healthcare and support law enforcement. She’s backed by Governor Lujan Grisham, the Albuquerque Police Officers Association, and LiUNA alongside multiple state legislators. She’s narrowly outpaced Torres-Velasquez in fundraising as well. I’ll give the edge to Torres-Velasquez here based on her incumbency, but I could see Mireles winning if her union support pushes her over the finish line.
HD-33 (Southern Las Cruces area, Harris+16) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Democratic incumbent Micaela Lara Cadena is facing off against attorney Ramona Martinez in the Democratic primary for this solidly Democratic district. Cadena doesn’t have much of a campaign platform online, but she’s been a reliably liberal vote in the legislature and has the backing of the Working Families Party. Martinez is running as a standard Democrat, promising to cut costs and expand access to affordable housing. She’s backed by a few unions. Cadena has a wide financial advantage over Martinez and has incumbency on her side, so she should win this one.
HD-34 (Southern Doña Ana County, Harris+8) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Democratic incumbent Raymundo Lara is trying to fend off a primary challenge from community activist Juan Fuentes in this solidly Democratic district. Lara is a standard Democrat, touting his efforts to strengthen public education, expand access to healthcare, and protect natural resources. Fuentes is mostly running on improving local infrastructure/economic development. He hasn’t attracted much outside support for his campaign though, so Lara should be fine here.
HD-37 (Eastern Las Cruces, Harris+14.5) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
With Democratic incumbent Joanne Ferrary retiring, two Democrats are running to replace her in this solidly Democratic district: nonprofit director Lori Martinez and attorney Matilda “Tilli” Villalobos.
Martinez is a liberal, promising to raise pay for teachers, expand access to affordable housing, and invest in community policing efforts. She’s backed by outgoing Representative Ferrary, Lieutenant Governor Howie Morales, NM-02 Congressman Gabe Vasquez, several Las Cruces-area state legislators/local elected officials, the Sierra Club, and the Working Families Party. Villalobos is a standard Democrat, focusing on improving public safety, improving local education, and expanding workforce development programs. She’s backed by a few local unions. The two are neck-and-neck in finances, but I think Martinez wins this one thanks to better institutional support than Villalobos.
HD-40 (Colfax/Mora Counties area, Harris+10) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Democratic incumbent Joseph Sanchez is probably the most moderate Democrat in the State House, with a voting record that actually matches a few moderate Republicans (including one we’ll talk about later). That has led to him facing a primary challenge from doctor Nancy Wright in this solidly Democratic district.
As stated earlier, Sanchez is a moderate, touting his efforts to support the oil & gas industry, roll out rural broadband, and work to support Native American communities. He’s backed by State House Speaker Martinez and a few unions. Wright is a liberal, promising to fight for working families instead of the oil & gas industry, improve local education, and expand access to healthcare (which she calls a human right). She’s backed by the Sierra Club and the Working Families Party. Sanchez has a wide financial lead over Wright, mostly thanks to big donations from the oil & gas industry. I think Sanchez’s incumbency wins him this one, but I’m keeping an eye out here. If there’s one thing we’ve learned so far this year, it’s that Democratic voters don’t really like when their candidates vote with Republicans. Now, Sanchez has a bit more leeway here just because the oil & gas industry is bigger here than in other Democratic districts, but he should still be careful and I’m interested to see how much of the vote Wright gets.
HD-41 (Eastern Rio Arriba County area, Harris+20) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Two Democrats are running to succeed retiring Democratic incumbent Susan Herrera in this deeply Democratic district: New Mexico Acequia Commissioner Yolanda Jaramillo and former State Representative Debbie Rodella.
Jaramillo is a standard Democrat, promising to cut costs, protect local education, and expand access to affordable healthcare. She’s backed by outgoing Representative Herrera, several state legislators/local elected officials, a bunch of unions (most notably the AFL-CIO), and the Working Families Party. Rodella is a bit of an interesting figure. She was a conservative Democrat who represented this district from 1992 to 2018 before being unseated by Herrera. Now, eight years later, she wants her old seat back. She’s calling herself a “proven voice” who’s touting her efforts to raise the minimum wage, expand early childhood education, and protect local natural resources. She’s backed by the Espanola Firefighters Association. She’s outpaced Jaramillo in fundraising, but let’s look at the facts here. Jaramillo has a huge advantage in institutional support, Rodella’s name recognition probably doesn’t have a ton of staying power after eight years of not being on the ballot, and the last time she was on a ballot, she lost by 12 points to Herrera. Advantage to Jaramillo.
HD-60 (Western Rio Rancho area, Trump+6) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Republican incumbent Joshua Hernandez is one of the most moderate Republicans in the legislature, actually being slightly more liberal than HD-40 Democratic Representative Sanchez in the last legislature. It’s a good strategy to get re-elected in a Republican-leaning, Democratic-trending district in suburban Albuquerque, but it’s also earned himself a primary challenge from businessman Zac Anaya.
As stated earlier, Hernandez is a moderate, touting his efforts to improve public safety, cut red tape for businesses, and improve local infrastructure. He’s backed by former Rio Rancho Mayor/gubernatorial candidate Gregg Hull and several local elected officials. Anaya is a conservative, promising to cut taxes, expand school choice, and defend the 2nd Amendment. He’s attacked Hernandez for accepting money from “special interests” and not being conservative enough on public safety/transgender issues. Hernandez has a wide financial advantage over Anaya, but Anaya has raised a fair amount of money. I think Hernandez’s incumbency/institutional support gets him the win here, but I’m interested to see how much of the vote Anaya gets. If he gets a lot, maybe Hernandez gets a better-funded conservative opponent in 2028 (if he survives November).
HD-66 (Eastern Chaves/northern Lea/Eddy Counties, Trump+56) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):
Three Republicans are running to succeed retiring Republican incumbent Jimmy Mason in this deeply Republican district: businessman Dan Lewis, nonprofit official LeAnne Gandy, and businessman Trinidad Malone.
Lewis is a standard Republican, promising to protect the oil & gas industry (while also touting his support for expanding renewable energy), crack down on crime, and decries the “indoctrination” of children in schools. He’s self-funded his entire campaign. Gandy is a conservative, promising to cut regulations, defend oil & gas jobs, and defend the 2nd Amendment. She’s backed by several oil & gas businesses/executives. Malone is running a vaguely conservative campaign, but he’s said some weird stuff. Like he says that issues facing New Mexico don’t matter to his district and says he won’t introduce bills. Yeah, one of the major things legislators do, he just won’t. Would it shock you to learn he hasn’t raised much money for his campaign either? In fact, Gandy is the only candidate not to self-fund and raised a fair amount of money. As such, I think Gandy wins this one.
HD-69 (Eastern McKinley County to southern Bernalillo County, Harris+16) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
To close things out, we have two rematches of 2024 in northern New Mexico! Starting with HD-69, where Democratic incumbent Michelle Paulene Abeyta is facing a primary challenge from former State Representative Harry Garcia in this deeply Democratic district.
Abeyta is a liberal, touting her efforts to improve local infrastructure, expand access to healthcare, and improve local education. She’s backed by NM-01 Congresswoman Melanie Stansbury, NM-02 Congressman Gabe Vasquez, a bunch of her fellow State Representatives, and the Working Families Party. Garcia is a moderate, promising to support local small businesses, cut costs, and improve local education. He’s backed by several local Navajo groups and a few local elected officials. Abeyta has a slight financial advantage over Garcia. Let’s take a look back at the last time these two squared off in 2024:
That folks, is what we call a blowout. Now that Abeyta has incumbency on her side, I’m not expecting things to get better for Garcia either. Abeyta should win this one.
HD-70 (San Miguel/eastern Torrance Counties, Harris+17) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):
Democratic incumbent Anita Gonzales is our last Democratic incumbent to face a rematch from 2024, this time facing off against former State Representative Ambrose Castellano in this solidly Democratic district.
Gonzales is a liberal, promising to fight for paid family/medical leave, increase funding for public education, and expand access to rural healthcare. She’s backed by US Senator Martin Heinrich, NM-03 Congresswoman Teresa Leger Fernandez, a bunch of unions, the Sierra Club, and the Working Families Party. Castellano is a moderate, promising to improve local education, support small businesses, and improve access to healthcare. He’s backed by a few oil & gas groups. He’s also attracted a bit of controversy as of late after he was charged with a felony for, um, I’ll let this explain it better than I can:
(The Las Vegas Optic)
Yeah, not the best sign to be charged with a felony in the closing stretch of your campaign. Especially when you’re lagging behind in fundraising and already lost to Abeyta by a 55-45 margin in 2024. And that was with incumbency on Castellano’s side! Yeah, Abeyta should win this one.
And that’s it for this edition of Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch. I’ll be back in a few hours to preview the Iowa primaries going down tomorrow. Until then, I’ve been Uncrewed/Chris (you can follow me on Twitter @Uncrewed, same on Bluesky!) and don’t forget to stay awesome!