State Legislative Election Watch- Virginia 2025 Preview
Covering all the State House elections in Virginia this year!
STATE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION WATCH- 2025 Virginia Election Preview
INTRO:
Hello everyone and welcome to Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch! I’m Uncrewed/Chris and this is your one-stop-shop to everything you need to know about state legislative elections from around the country. Well folks, we’ve made it. After a whole year of build up, we’ve made it to election day 2025. We’ve got a bunch of elections going down next week, but here at the SLEW, we’re focused on the state legislative elections! There are a ton of state legislative elections going down throughout the country on Tuesday, and we already covered New Jersey, so we’re heading down south to the great Commonwealth of Virginia! I’ll go over my district ratings, a brief rundown of how the races have unfolded, and where I think things will stand after Tuesday. So, without further ado, Let’s get to it!
BACKGROUND:
After losing their House majority in 2021, the Virginia Democrats hoped that new maps in 2023 would lead to a new Democratic majority. Despite Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin being popular and President Biden in Washington being unpopular, the Democrats managed to flip just enough seats in 2023 to flip the State House back into the Democratic column. They enter the 2025 election with a 51-49 majority, but stand a very good shot at gaining seats for one reason and one reason only, the top of the ticket.
With Virginia Governors term-limited to just one term, Youngkin can’t run for re-election. The Democrats picked former VA-07 Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger as their nominee, while the Republicans picked Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. To say that the difference between these two is night and day is an understatement. Spanberger is a centrist suburbanite who has some of the best approval ratings in the state. Earle-Sears is a right-wing culture warrior who has some of the worst approval ratings a Republican nominee for Governor in Virginia has seen in decades. Spanberger is well-positioned to win, with polls showing her currently leading Earle-Sears on average by around 8-10 points. Luckily for the Democrats, generic ballot polling shows House Democrats leading their Republican counterparts by a similar margin (which matches 2021, where ticket-splitting between the gubernatorial and State House races was at an all time low). So, can the Democrats take advantage of this and expand their majority (or even get a supermajority)? Let’s find out!
HD-01 (Northern Arlington, Harris+59.5) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-02 (Central Arlington, Harris+57.5) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-03 (Southern Arlington/northern Alexandria, Harris+57) (D-HELD): Uncontested D
HD-04 (Western Alexandria area, Harris+48) (D-HELD): Uncontested D
HD-05 (Eastern Alexandria, Harris+59) (D-HELD): Uncontested D
HD-06 (Northern Fairfax County, Harris+32.5) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-07 (Reston area, Harris+45) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-08 (Herndon to Franklin Farm, Harris+36) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-09 (Chantilly/northern Centreville area, Harris+25) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-10 (Fairfax Station/southern Centreville area, Harris+24) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-11 (Fairfax area, Harris+35) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-12 (Tysons/Vienna area, Harris+42) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-13 (West Falls Church/Falls Church area, Harris+46) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-14 (Annandale area, Harris+33) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-15 (Burke area, Harris+30) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-16 (Eastern Fairfax County, Harris+39) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-17 (Rose Hill/Franconia area, Harris+42.5) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-18 (Springfield/West Springfield area, Harris+30) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-19 (Woodbridge/southeastern Fairfax County, Harris+31) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-20 (Manassas/Manassas Park area, Harris+14) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-21 (Western Prince William County, Harris+5) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-22 (Central Prince William County, Harris+1) (R-HELD):
Republican incumbent Ian Lovejoy won this seat by five points in 2023, mostly on the back of Virginia’s fastest-rising political issues, data centers. Lovejoy made his opposition to the expansion of these data centers a key point in his campaign in 2023 and, with Prince William County voters angry at Democrats who initially supported them, he was able to win a seat in Prince William County, the first time a Republican had done so since 2015. Now, with Democrats on the offensive, they’re looking to take Lovejoy out.
They’ve chosen a proven fighter to do so too, nominating former State Delegate Elizabeth Guzman to go up against Lovejoy. Guzman was elected in the 2017 blue wave that swept over NoVA, winning a district that contained a small amount of this current one. She won re-election in 2019 and 2021 before leaving the House to run for the State Senate, trying to primary a moderate politician from the left. She lost (by just 50 votes) and then decided to run for VA-07 after Abigail Spanberger announced her retirement in 2024. She lost that by a lot more than 50 votes to now-Congressman Eugene Vindman and is now trying to get back to the State House and flip a red seat blue in the process. Guzman’s focused on a couple of key issues, namely affordability, improving community safety, and bettering local education. Meanwhile, Lovejoy’s focused on lowering the cost of living, protecting the police, and protecting the “Rural Crescent” from developers. Guzman has easily lapped Lovejoy in the fundraising department, with her raising over $3.4 million. Lovejoy isn’t a slouch though, having raised over $1.4 million to help win re-election.
The two have also traded barbs over the air, with Lovejoy touting his support for regulating data centers and attacking Guzman as a “defund the police” Democrat, while Guzman is trying to tie Lovejoy to President Trump, claiming that Lovejoy supports Trump cutting Medicaid and firing federal workers. With this year in Virginia shaping up to be such a Democratic year and Trump probably being that popular in this district (despite only losing it by one point) thanks to DOGE and the government shutdown, I think Guzman pulls this one off. But, if voters are more focused on local issues than national issues, I can see Lovejoy narrowly winning.
RATING: Lean D (FLIP)
HD-23 (Southern Prince William/northern Stafford Counties, Harris+35) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-24 (Southern Dale City area, Harris+25.5) (D-HELD): Uncontested D
HD-25 (Lake Ridge/northern Dale City area, Harris+25) (D-HELD): Uncontested D
HD-26 (Central Loudoun County, Harris+22) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-27 (Eastern Loudoun County, Harris+20) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-28 (Ashburn area, Harris+23) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-29 (Leesburg area, Harris+18) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-30 (Western Loudoun/northern Fauquier Counties, Trump+1) (R-HELD):
Republican incumbent Geary Higgins is running for re-election in this Republican-leaning district, but first he has to get through Democratic political aide John McAuliff to get a second term. Higgins is a conservative, focused on preserving historical sites, attacking “DEI madness” in schools, and promising to stand up for “parental rights” in education. McAuliff is running a more populist campaign, attacking Higgins for supposedly supporting data center expansion, supporting expanding economic development, and wanting to expand programs to help first-time homebuyers.
Much like HD-22, data centers are a somewhat major issue here. McAuliff has hammered Higgins in ads for supposedly supporting them, while Higgins has tried to push himself as far away from data centers as possible, instead trying to tie the huge utility giant Dominion Energy to McAuliff (even though McAuliff has gotten a good amount of money from the anti-Dominion group Clean Virginia). The Democrats have sensed opportunity here in the last months, probably because McAuliff has been running a really good campaign, investing a ton of money into McAuliff’s campaign, which has led to Higgins not only being down in the money department, but also getting blasted on the airwaves. Seriously, for the entire month of October, McAuliff has outpaced Higgins on the airwaves by a 10-to-1 margin! And that’s saying something being in the expensive Washington D.C. media market! This is probably going to be one of the closest, if not THE closest race in the state on Tuesday, but I have to pick a winner. While this district did back Trump in 2024, it also backed Biden in 2020 (by a similar one point margin), so it’s been trending to the left (relative to the state) for a bit now. Because of that, McAuliff’s massive fundraising advantage, and his well-run campaign, I think McAuliff ekes out a win. Again, I can easily see Higgins winning, I just think McAuliff pulls this one out by the skin of his teeth.
RATING: Lean D (FLIP)
HD-31 (Clarke County area, Trump+27) (R-HELD): Safe R
HD-32 (Winchester/northern Frederick County, Trump+21) (R-HELD): Safe R
HD-33 (Shenandoah/Page Counties area, Trump+47) (R-HELD): Safe R
HD-34 (Harrisonburg area, Trump+6.5) (R-HELD):
When the Democrats published their target list of House seats to flip in 2025, most made sense. They were either close in 2023 or were Harris-voting/barely Trump-voting districts. One district stood out though, HD-34 in the Harrisonburg area. This Republican-leaning seat has sent Republican incumbent Tony Wilt to Richmond for the last 15 years, but the Democrats are trying to take him out with community organizer Andrew Payton as their nominee.
Wilt is running as a standard Republican, supporting cutting taxes, cutting regulations for small businesses, and wanting to expand “parental rights” in education/pushing back on “political ideologies” in the classroom. Payton’s running as a left-wing Democrat, focusing on cutting healthcare costs, lowering housing costs, and promising to make corporations and “The 1%” pay their fair share in taxes. Democratic success in this district is going to come down to one thing and one thing only, high turnout in Harrisonburg city. They need big turnout out of James Madison University (Go Dukes!) and maybe even lower than average turnout from the rural areas of the district to flip this district. It’s a narrow path, but it’s a path. That’s why the Democrats have invested a decent amount of money here, just enough for Payton to keep up with Wilt on the airwaves. Wilt should be favored here, but if there’s big turnout at James Madison, then Payton might have a chance.
RATING: Likely R
HD-35 (Bath County to southern Rockingham County, Trump+43) (R-HELD): Safe R
HD-36 (Staunton/Waynesboro area, Trump+19) (R-HELD): Safe R
HD-37 (Craig County to Lexington/Buena Vista, Trump+40) (R-HELD): Safe R
HD-38 (Roanoke, Harris+24) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-39 (Franklin/eastern Roanoke Counties, Trump+41) (R-HELD): Safe R
HD-40 (Salem area, Trump+9) (R-HELD): Safe R
HD-41 (Eastern Montgomery/western Roanoke Counties, Trump+3) (R-HELD):
This district was home to one of the state’s most hotly-contested races in 2023, with the Republicans winning here by just under 200 votes. Now, the two candidates in that race are dueling off in a rematch as Republican incumbent Chris Obenshain faces off against Democratic political aide Lily Franklin in this ultra-competitive district.
Obenshain is running as a generic Republican, promising to support school choice, fully fund law enforcement, and cut taxes. Franklin is running as a standard Democrat, focusing on lowering housing costs, supporting public education, and bringing in new economic opportunities to the district. While the two have been pretty evenly-matched in the fundraising/TV ad department, everyone knows this district will come down to one thing and one thing only, how well the Democrats are going to get Virginia Tech students to turnout. Virginia Tech (Go Hokies!)/Blacksburg is the major/only Democratic vote area in this district, so student turnout is key to a Franklin win. Luckily for the Democrats, Franklin has run a massive voter registration campaign for Virginia Tech students, with Montgomery County (home to Blacksburg/Virginia Tech) reporting almost 3,000 new voters since last year. As long as Franklin gets the margins/turnout she got with Virginia Tech students in 2023, she’ll probably win here. And with 2025 looking like a more Democratic year than 2023, I think that’ll be the case. Now, if there’s any turnout lag from Virginia Tech or even if Gen Z college kids turn out to be super conservative now like all the terminally online election data people think they are, then Obenshain probably wins. For now, I think Franklin edges him out.
RATING: Lean D (FLIP)
HD-42 (Giles/western Montgomery Counties area, Trump+25) (R-HELD): Safe R
HD-43 (Tazewell/Buchanan/Dickenson/Bland Counties, Trump+68) (R-HELD): Safe R
HD-44 (Washington/Russell Counties/Bristol, Trump+53) (R-HELD): Safe R
HD-45 (Wise/Lee/Scott Counties/Norton, Trump+67) (R-HELD): Safe R
HD-46 (Smyth/Wythe/Grayson/western Pulaski Counties, Trump+58) (R-HELD): Safe R
HD-47 (Carroll/Patrick/Floyd Counties/Galax, Trump+54) (R-HELD): Safe R
HD-48 (Henry/western Pittsylvania Counties/Martinsville, Trump+28) (R-HELD): Safe R
HD-49 (Danville area, Trump+8) (R-HELD):
This is my pick for a district that’s completely flying under the radar that could end up flipping. Before we get into my reasoning, let’s get some background. This is a Republican-leaning district located in the Danville area which has been represented by Republican incumbent Danny Marshall for the last 24 years. Marshall retired this year, leaving the seat open for a matchup between two Danville City Councilmembers: Republican Councilman Madison Whittle and Democratic Councilman Gary Miller.
Whittle’s running as a standard Republican, supporting cutting regulations on businesses/farms, protecting the 2nd Amendment, and supporting pro-life policies. Miller, on the other hand, is running as a bit of a populist, railing against “partisan politics” that have left this area behind, while also promising to lower the cost of living and attacking “wealthy landlords” who have exploited the housing crisis and “private interests” who have ruined local hospitals. Miller also has an (almost) unique endorsement for a Democrat, one from the Virginia Police Benevolent Association! Yeah, the largest police union in the state backed three Democrats this year: Abigail Spanberger for Governor, May Nivar in HD-57 (we’ll get to her soon), and Gary Miller here in HD-49. To make matters even better for Miller, apparently the Republicans don’t even really like Whittle as a candidate! Yeah, apparently the local GOP doesn’t like him for one reason or another, but this is more inside politics stuff than actual scandal-level stuff.
All of this would make the Democrats try to invest here right? Nope! In fact, neither candidate has really received much support from either of their respective parties, meaning that both probably think that it’s uncompetitive. Well, I’m going to go bold and say that Miller has a chance to win. Not a huge chance, but a chance. He’s going to have to get a big win out of Danville (probably bigger than Harris’s 21 point win here last year) and have good turnout there too. Because he’s running a good, albeit underfunded, campaign in a district that’s not too Republican on paper. For now, I’d say Whittle’s the favorite, but watch for this district on election night.
RATING: Likely R
HD-50 (Prince Edward County to Mecklenburg County, Trump+19) (R-HELD): Safe R
HD-51 (Campbell/southern Bedford Counties, Trump+51.5) (R-HELD): Safe R
HD-52 (Lynchburg, Trump+12) (R-HELD):
Ah Lynchburg, what a weird city. For the most part it’s a normal battleground area in Virginia, with heavily Black/centralized areas backing Democrats and whiter, outer-city areas backing Republicans. But then you hit Liberty University, the far-right evangelical college known for producing people like the Falwells. That place is a nuclear bomb for Republican votes. To put it into perspective, the precinct containing Liberty University voted for Trump by a 97-3 margin in 2024, netting him nearly 1,600 votes! Without Liberty, Lynchburg still would have voted for Trump, but only by a four point margin instead of a 12 point one.
What does that have to do with state legislators? Well, it explains why Republican incumbent Wendell Walker is probably favored here over Democratic activist Rise Hayes. Walker is your standard Virginia conservative, supporting “parental rights” in education, funding law enforcement, and lowering taxes. Hayes is a bit more unique of a Democrat, focusing on affordability, expanding funding for education, and protecting workers/tenants rights. She’s also a rare Democrat to have graduated from Liberty University, so congrats to her for surviving that (and as a member of the LGBTQ+ community too!). She also attracted a bit of attention during the initial aftermath of the Jay Jones texting scandal, where she became the first Democrat running for Delegate to publicly disavow Jones (even though she did vote for him before the texts broke). Still though, Walker should be able to win this as long as Liberty University turns out at like half of what they did in 2024 (but they are lagging pretty hard in the early vote).
RATING: Likely R
HD-53 (Amherst/Nelson/northern Bedford Counties, Trump+38.5) (R-HELD): Safe R
HD-54 (Charlottesville, Harris+61) (D-HELD): Uncontested D
HD-55 (Albemarle County area, Harris+22) (D-HELD): Uncontested D
HD-56 (Appomattox County to western Goochland County, Trump+22) (R-HELD): Safe R
HD-57 (Short Pump/eastern Goochland County, Harris+9) (R-HELD):
You may remember this district from 2023, where the Democrats felt optimistic they could win until…
Yeah, long story short, the Democrats kind of abandoned this district near the end of the campaign, but only ended up losing by two points. If they stood behind Gibson, they probably would have won (which may be guiding how they’re responding to the Jay Jones scandal nowadays).
Anyway, the Republican who beat Gibson in 2023 was David Owen and he’s running for re-election in this suburban district. However, he’s not facing a scandal-ridden Democrat now, he’s facing a businesswoman by the name of May Nivar. Nivar, as far as the public knows approximately a week before election day (as of writing this), has no real baggage to speak of and is running as a standard suburban Democrat, focusing on lowering the cost of living, expanding funding for education, and promising to protect reproductive care. Owen is trying to run as a moderate, supporting raising teacher pay, expanding funding for police, and wanting to lower taxes. There’s one problem with that though, his voting record doesn’t really match that. While some of his colleagues in less Democratic-leaning districts voted for things like expanding access to contraceptives, issuing new regulations on guns, and protecting abortion in Virginia, Owen voted against all of that. Nivar has hit him hard on that too, claiming that Owen is President Trump’s “Yes Man” in Richmond. How has Owen responded? Transgender fear mongering of course! Yeah, he’s got nothing. Now you know why Nivar’s one of the only three Democrats to get the Virginia PBA endorsement, because they probably see Owen as a dead man walking.
Still though, Republicans haven’t given up on Owen. They’ve pumped money into his campaign over the last few months and are still airing ads for him. We saw something similar to this in 2023, where the Republicans refused to abandon State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant despite her clearly being the underdog in a Biden+17 district. She ended up losing by 10 points, making the Republican investments in the district absolutely pointless. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme and I think we’re seeing some rhyming here. Nivar’s the favorite and Owen probably won’t win unless something crazy happens with Nivar or the entire statewide ticket before Tuesday.
RATING: Likely D (FLIP)
HD-58 (Tuckahoe area, Harris+17) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-59 (Louisa/western Hanover Counties, Trump+16) (R-HELD): Safe R
HD-60 (Eastern Hanover/western New Kent Counties, Trump+28) (R-HELD): Safe R
HD-61 (Rappahannock/southern Fauquier Counties, Trump+26) (R-HELD): Safe R
HD-62 (Culpeper/Madison Counties area, Trump+23) (R-HELD): Safe R
HD-63 (Western Spotsylvania/eastern Orange Counties, Trump+19) (R-HELD): Safe R
HD-64 (Central Stafford County, Trump+2) (R-HELD):
Republican incumbent Paul Milde is running for re-election for a second term against Democratic US Army veteran Stacey Carroll in this Republican-leaning district.
Milde is a far-right culture warrior (probably way too conservative for this type of district, but I digress), proudly touting that he’s been fighting the “woke liberal agenda” for years, wanting to “secure the border” even though his district is approximately 1,700 miles to the closest Mexican border crossing, and promising to “protect girls’ sports.” On the complete opposite side of the spectrum, Carroll is running as a moderate Democrat, focusing on expanding economic development, funding public education, and expanding access to healthcare. With Milde’s extremism and lackluster fundraising, the Democrats have sensed opportunity and have flooded Carroll’s campaign with money. To put things into perspective, Carroll is currently outpacing Milde on the airwaves by a 10-to-1 margin! This is a hard district to predict. Yes, Carroll’s doing great on the airwaves and Milde’s way too conservative for this district, but it’s also a pretty Republican district down the ballot. Milde won by nine points in 2023, but the Democrats didn’t put any effort into flipping the district then either (they were more focused on flipping HD-65). To make matters even more competitive, a recent poll from my friends over at State Navigate put Milde up by just one point over Carroll (49-48), with Spanberger winning the district by three. Right now, I think Milde narrowly holds on, but you can easily make an argument that Carroll can win.
RATING: Lean R
HD-65 (Fredericksburg area, Harris+9.5) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-66 (Eastern Spotsylvania/southern Caroline Counties, Trump+2) (R-HELD):
Republican incumbent Bobby Orrock has served in the Virginia State House for over 25 years and (outside of his first win) hasn’t really faced a tough bid for re-election, until now! He’s facing Democratic school board member Nicole Cole in this Republican-leaning district.
Orrock is running as a center-right Republican, supporting “fiscal responsibility,” increasing pay for teachers, and protecting the 2nd Amendment. Cole, on the other hand, is running as a standard Democrat, supporting expanding economic growth, protecting the local environment, and expanding educational opportunities in the district. Much like HD-64, the Democrats have flooded Cole’s campaign with money late in the cycle. Cole’s up on the airwaves in the expensive Washington D.C. market with ads attacking Orrock for opposing reproductive rights, while Orrock really hasn’t responded on the air. He’s still focused on old-fashioned campaigning, meeting voters all around the district in a mostly positive way. Can Orrock’s “happy warrior” schtick and old-fashioned campaigning win him another term in Richmond? I think so, but if Spanberger’s approaching a double-digit win at the top of the ticket, it might be enough to knock out the seasoned veteran.
RATING: Lean R
HD-67 (Lancaster County to northern Caroline County, Trump+20) (R-HELD): Safe R
HD-68 (King William County to Mathews County, Trump+34) (R-HELD): Safe R
HD-69 (York County area, Trump+2) (R-HELD):
The Democrats surprisingly left this district uncontested in 2023, letting Republican Chad Green win without an opponent in a district that backed Trump by two points in 2020.They’re not making that same mistake this time, nominating doctor Mark Downey as their candidate this year.
Green is running as a standard Republican, supporting cutting taxes, improving “parental rights” in education, and standing with law enforcement. Downey is running as a moderate, supporting lowering the cost of living, expanding access to healthcare, and promising to stand with law enforcement against gun violence. There’s also a third candidate running, an independent candidate named Valerie Beverley, who’s running as a center-left candidate focused on expanding access to healthcare, using AI to help expand educational programs, and protecting the local environment. She’s also endorsed by the Virginia Police Benevolent Association, which is really interesting. They probably didn’t endorse Delegate Green because Green was arrested back in June 2018 for drinking and driving (his boat). He was found not guilty of that, but maybe there’s still some lingering fears about how the VPBA would look if they endorsed a guy who was arrested for a DUI.
With Downey’s background as a doctor, Green’s past legal issues, and this district not really moving from 2020 to 2024 on the Presidential level (despite the state getting a few points more Republican), the Democrats have sensed opportunity. They’ve pumped Downey’s campaign full of money, with Downey holding a 3-to-1 advantage over Green on the airwaves going into election day. This is going to be a tight race, but I think that Green narrowly wins thanks to Beverley taking just enough of the left-wing vote. If Spanberger wins here by enough though or Beverley actually ends up taking some Republican votes thanks to that VPBA endorsement, then Downey can definitely win.
RATING: Lean R
HD-70 (Northern Newport News, Harris+21) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-71 (Williamsburg to eastern New Kent County, Harris+5) (R-HELD):
The Democrats didn’t really invest in this district in 2023, letting Republican incumbent Amanda Batten dominate the finance game and leaving their Democratic nominee/school receptionist Jessica Anderson to mostly fend for herself. Well, maybe they should have invested more as Batten only won by two points over Anderson.
Two years later and the Democrats are determined to not make that same mistake again. They’ve nominated Anderson again as their candidate, who’s running as a standard liberal, focusing on affordability, expanding funding for public education, and protecting access to healthcare. Meanwhile, Batten is running for another term (after apparently nearly retiring), running as a moderate, mostly focused on lowering the cost of living and touting her bipartisan bills in the House. It’s mostly a play to win over Harris voters, because Batten has a pretty conservative voting record in the House over the last few years, voting against bills to protect access to abortion, expand regulations on firearms, and protecting access to contraceptives.
Back to the whole Anderson being helped by the Democrats thing, she’s gotten a ton of money from the state Democrats over the last year, almost $3 million to be exact. While Batten hasn’t been a slouch in the money department either, she’s still down 3-to-1 on the airwaves compared to Anderson. And while Anderson has been able to attack Batten for voting against reproductive rights and new regulations on firearms, Batten has only been able to attack Anderson by posting on TikTok (where she has over 600,000 followers), calling her a “wannabe social media star” who’s “desperate for attention.” It is without a doubt, the worst attack ad I’ve seen this year. Like, it was probably designed by someone who got mad that Anderson’s TikTok account was pretty popular and was like “Hey, this would make a great campaign ad! Focus on the economy? Public safety? Nah! TikTok ad!” Sorry for the tangent, but it’s just like, what are you doing?!? With this district being so competitive in 2023, the fact that Anderson is easily winning on the airwaves, and that Spanberger is likely to win here easily, I think Anderson wins this one. Unless Williamsburg turnout absolutely collapses over the next few days (which it has been the opposite of all early-voting, it’s turning out rapidly so far), then we might be seeing TikToks from the floor of the House of Delegates from Anderson in January.
RATING: Lean D (FLIP)
HD-72 (Nottoway County to northwestern Chesterfield County, Trump+23) (R-HELD): Safe R
HD-73 (Western Chesterfield County, Harris+1) (R-HELD):
When you think of places that are expanding at a rapid pace, you think of places like suburban Atlanta or Florida, but you don’t think suburban Richmond really. Well, think again, because the southern suburbs of Richmond have seen some explosive population growth over the last few years. It’s also led to this district in particular becoming a lot more favorable to Democrats. Liberal transplants to the district have led to the district going from Trump+16 in 2016 to Trump+7 in 2020 to Harris+1 in 2024!
This leaves Republican incumbent Mark Earley in an ultra-competitive district just two years after he won his first term by nine points. He’s running for re-election, but has to face Democratic attorney/2024 VA-01 nominee Leslie Mehta if he wants to get a second term. Earley is running a mixed bag of a campaign, touting both his support for bipartisanship in Richmond and his support for “election integrity” and stopping “overdevelopment.” (which makes sense considering all the new people that move into his district probably won’t vote for him) Mehta is running as a moderate, promising to work across the aisle, wanting to expand protections for workers, and promising to expand access to healthcare. Owing to the district’s hard shift to the left, the Democrats have sensed opportunity and have heavily invested in Mehta’s campaign. She’s been dominating the airwaves with ads attacking Earley for voting against protecting reproductive rights, while Earley has tried to use anti-transgender fearmongering to attack Mehta. A recent poll by my friends over at State Navigate had Earley up 49-48 on Mehta, with Spanberger winning here by three points. It also showed that voters who have moved in here since 2024 have only gotten more liberal, so that should help Mehta. This is as close to a 50/50 election the House probably has, but I’m going to go with Mehta narrowly getting the win. If she doesn’t though and Earley survives, he’s going to be in huge trouble in 2027 as the district continues to get bluer and bluer.
RATING: Lean D (FLIP)
HD-74 (Colonial Heights/southern Chesterfield County, Trump+8) (R-HELD): Safe R
HD-75 (Hopewell/eastern Chesterfield County, Harris+7) (R-HELD):
Republican incumbent Carrie Coyner was launched into the national spotlight in October when she leaked the Jay Jones text messages where he joked about killing then-Republican Speaker Todd Gilbert and his family. Coyner was the recipient of those messages (which were sent a few years ago) and decided to release them now to try to stop Jones from being Attorney General.
But what hasn’t been discussed is that Coyner’s also in a majorly competitive race for re-election in her Democratic-leaning district. She’s facing off against Democratic healthcare activist Lindsey Dougherty in the most expensive non-statewide race of the entire cycle. Coyner’s a moderate Republican, touting her bills to protect victims of sexual assault, wanting to improve education standards, and promising to help military spouses. Dougherty is running as a standard Democrat, supporting expanding universal pre-K, raising the state minimum wage, and expanding access to healthcare. Like I said earlier, this has been an expensive race. Over $2.6 million has been spent on ads in this race, which is only about $1 million less than how much has been spent on the race for Lieutenant Governor! Dougherty has tried to tie Coyner to Trump and claimed that the Delegate is anti-abortion. Meanwhile, Coyner has nicknamed Dougherty “Liberal Lindsey” and claims that Dougherty wants to defund the police and raise taxes. I question how effective insulting someone as a liberal in a Harris+7 district is, but I digress.
Either way, this race is probably going to come down to how well Coyner outruns the top of the ticket. She did so by six points in 2021, but that probably won’t be enough if Spanberger wins here by more than Harris on Tuesday. Because of that, I think that Coyner actually loses. If she’s able to attract more ticket-splitters this year (because of her work exposing Jay Jones) or Spanberger underperforms Harris here (which is possible, Hopewell has given Democrats problems in off year elections), then she can win. For now though, I think Dougherty unseats Coyner.
RATING: Lean D (FLIP)
HD-76 (Northern Chesterfield County, Harris+27) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-77 (Southern Richmond, Harris+51) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-78 (Western Richmond, Harris+55) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-79 (Eastern Richmond, Harris+79) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-80 (Central Henrico County, Harris+51.5) (D-HELD): Uncontested D
HD-81 (Charles City/eastern Henrico Counties, Harris+34.5) (D-HELD): Uncontested D
HD-82 (Petersburg area, Harris+4) (R-HELD):
This district was the site of the closest State House election in the state in 2023, with Republican incumbent Kim Taylor defeating Democratic auditor Kimberly Pope Adams by just 78 votes! Now, Taylor & Adams are running again, with another super close race expected.
Taylor is running as a moderate, touting her efforts to work with utility giant Dominion to lower utility costs, wanting to expand funding for law enforcement, and promising to expand access to rural broadband. Adams is running as a standard Democrat, supporting public safety measures, expanding funding for public education, and promising to protect reproductive rights. This has been another high-spending race, with both candidates raising money that would make Congressional candidates blush. On the airwaves, Adams has been able to maintain a 4-to-1 advantage, with Adams mostly attacking Taylor for voting for tax breaks to help her business. On the other hand, Taylor is trying to paint Adams a “defund the police” radical who’s too “woke.” Given the close margin in 2023 and the fact that Petersburg has been turning out pretty well in early voting, I think Adams pulls this one out. Could definitely see a Taylor win though if Petersburg isn’t turning out as well as they have been on election day.
RATING: Lean D (FLIP)
HD-83 (Brunswick County to northern Isle of Wight County, Trump+8) (R-HELD): Safe R
HD-84 (Franklin to northern Suffolk, Harris+14) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-85 (Southern Newport News, Harris+37) (D-HELD): Uncontested D
HD-86 (Poquoson/eastern Hampton, Harris+2) (R-HELD):
Republican incumbent A.C. Cordoza looked to be in a competitive, but Republican-leaning race this year against Democratic businessman Virgil Thornton. For months, Thornton held a slight campaign finance advantage, but it looked like Cordoza was slightly favored going into early voting.
That was until Virgil Thornton dropped one of the most jaw-dropping campaign ads I’ve seen in my years of covering state legislative races:
Yep, Cordoza was apparently acting like a real predator towards underaged women before he got into politics. You know a campaign ad is devastating when the stinger is not something like “oh he’s too liberal” or “oh he’s a radical,” no it’s “He’s a dangerous predator.” Cordoza hasn’t really responded to it either, just kind of denying it and airing an ad attacking Thornton for propagating that information. This nuke of an ad has led to Thornton taking a huge lead on the airwaves, taking a 6-to-1 advantage in that department over Cordoza. To make matters even worse for Cordoza, a recent State Navigate poll showed him down by six points to Thornton. He was performing even worse than Winsome Earle-Sears in the district! Thornton’s the favorite to win, especially after dropping the mother of all campaign ads on his opponent.
RATING: Lean D (FLIP)
HD-87 (Western Hampton, Harris+52) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-88 (Portsmouth, Harris+36) (D-HELD): Uncontested D
HD-89 (Southern Suffolk/western Chesapeake, Harris+3) (R-HELD):
Republican incumbent Baxter Ennis decided to retire rather than seek re-election in his ultra-competitive seat. He only won by two points in 2023, so he evidently didn’t want to take part in a majorly competitive race that this was certainly shaping up to be in 2025.
The Republicans nominated school board member Mike Lamonea to replace Ennis, while the Democrats nominated attorney Kacey Carnegie to try to flip the seat. Lamonea is a standard Republican, supporting “parental rights” in education (and promising to protect classrooms from “political agendas”), wanting to lower taxes, and promising to support law enforcement. He’s also a former ICE agent. He hasn’t mentioned that a lot in his campaign, mostly because ICE isn’t really the most popular thing to be associated with nowadays. Anyway, Carnegie is running as a moderate, focusing on economic growth (and raising the minimum wage), expanding funding for law enforcement, and wanting to increase funding for public education.
Carnegie has had a solid lead over Lamonea in the finance department and holds a 4-to-1 advantage over him on the airwaves. With the fact that this is an open race, Carnegie holding a financial advantage, and that Spanberger is probably going to win this district by at least five points, I think Carnegie’s the favorite.
RATING: Lean D (FLIP)
HD-90 (Eastern/southern Chesapeake, Trump+17) (R-HELD): Safe R
HD-91 (Northern Chesapeake, Harris+35) (D-HELD): Uncontested D
HD-92 (Western Norfolk, Harris+52) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-93 (Central Norfolk, Harris+48) (D-HELD): Uncontested D
HD-94 (Northern Norfolk, Harris+15) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-95 (Western Virginia Beach/eastern Norfolk, Harris+20) (D-HELD): Uncontested D
HD-96 (South-central Virginia Beach, Harris+15) (D-HELD): Safe D
HD-97 (North-central Virginia Beach, Harris+8) (D-HELD):
In a sign of how bad things are for Virginia Republicans, this is the only Democratic-held seat that’s on the list of competitive State House elections. And even then, Democratic incumbent Michael Feggans looks to be in a solid position for re-election. However, he does have to face former Republican State Delegate Tim Anderson in order to win that second term in this Democratic-leaning district.
Feggans is mostly running on his legislative record, which includes support for veterans (a big must-have in a Virginia Beach district), expanded access to childcare, and improving protections for tenants. Anderson is running as a conservative, promising to cut taxes, support veterans, and “eliminate government waste.” Feggans has been dominating Anderson on the airwaves, having a 5-to-1 advantage over the former Delegate. This is Harris+8 district and one that Feggans won by five in 2023, unless Spanberger only wins by 1-2 points or even loses, then Feggans should be fine here.
RATING: Likely D
HD-98 (Southern Virginia Beach, Trump+15) (R-HELD): Safe R
HD-99 (Eastern Virginia Beach, Trump+5) (R-HELD):
Republican incumbent Anne Ferrell Tata easily won re-election in 2023 in this Republican-leaning district, beating Democratic journalist Cat Porterfield by 15 points.
Now, Tata’s running for re-election and facing Porterfield again, so why is this district on the board? The death of ticket splitting that’s why. 2021 saw ticket splitting plummet statewide between the gubernatorial race and the State House races. Polling shows 2025 being similar in that regard, so if Spanberger wins this district by a few points (which is very possible if she wins by 10+ points), then Porterfield might get dragged over the finish line. It’s not going to be because Porterfield’s a well-funded candidate. She hasn’t received any support from the state Democrats and has only raised a little over $55,000 for her rematch with Tata. Contrast that with Tata, who has raised nearly half a million dollars. Tata should be favored here, but just watch out if Spanberger wins here by a few points, then things could get really interesting.
RATING: Likely R
HD-100 (Delmarva Peninsula/northern Virginia Beach, Trump+5) (R-HELD):
Republican incumbent Rob Bloxom also sits in a Democratic reach district that’s probably only going to be competitive if Spanberger wins statewide by double digits. Bloxom’s facing Democratic activist Liz Richardson in this Republican-leaning seat.
Much like Porterfield in the neighboring HD-99, Richardson has lagged far behind Bloxom in the fundraising department, receiving no support from the state Democrats. And to make matters worse for Richardson, Bloxom’s been a prolific overperformer. The Delmarva Peninsula is more disconnected to the state (which makes sense considering you have to cross the Chesapeake Bay to even visit it), meaning that a local candidate like Bloxom can focus more on local issues, leading to overperformances. Still, wave elections can knock out some entrenched incumbents and Bloxom could be on that list if Spanberger’s winning here by enough. For now, Bloxom’s the favorite.
RATING: Likely R
CONCLUSION:
It’s kind of hard to overstate how screwed the Virginia Republicans are on Tuesday. They have an unpopular President in Washington, an unpopular gubernatorial candidate, and the generic House of Delegates ballot tracking very close to the performance of said unpopular gubernatorial candidate. Literally the only thing they have going for them is the AG race and they might not even win that! I have the Democrats flipping 10 seats, but they could flip three more if Spanberger wins in a landslide. In fact, I think a Democratic supermajority is more likely to happen than a Republican majority! The Democrats would need six more seats than I currently have them winning, so it’s possible, but would require Spanberger to be winning by at least 15 points. If the Republicans somehow pull off the odds and flip HD-97, then they’d be at 50-50, necessitating a power-sharing agreement between the two parties. The next two seats to flip in order for a Republican majority backed Harris by 5 (HD-21, where the Republican candidate has no presence whatsoever) and by 9 (HD-65) respectively, so Winsome Earle-Sears would probably have to be winning in order for the Virginia GOP to flip the chamber. In other words, nearly impossible.
And that’s all for this edition of the State Legislative Election Watch! I’ll be back tomorrow to continue our three part look at next week’s state legislative elections. That time, we’re covering all the other special elections going down on Tuesday. Until then, I’ve been Uncrewed/Chris, you can follow me on Twitter @Uncrewed (same on Bluesky!) and don’t forget to stay awesome!