State Legislative Election Watch- May 5th, 2026
Covering tonight's big special election in Michigan and going over ratings launches!
STATE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION WATCH- May 5th, 2026
INTRO:
Hello everyone and welcome to Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch! I’m Uncrewed/Chris and this is your one-stop-shop to everything you need to know about state legislative elections from around the country. Over the last few days, I’ve covered the state legislative primaries going down tonight in Indiana & Ohio, but there’s also a special election going down tonight. That being SD-35 in Michigan! We’ll be covering that alongside going over ratings launches I’ve made over the last month, so, without further ado, let’s get to it!
MICHIGAN SD-35 (Midland/Saginaw/Bay City, Harris+1) (D-Held):
To say that this is one of the most important state legislative elections since 2024 might be an understatement. Currently, the Michigan Democrats enjoy a 20-18 majority in the State Senate. If they lose here, it’ll go to a 19-19 tie and they’ll effectively lose whatever power they have left in the state legislature for the rest of the session. This seat in Michigan’s Tri-Cities area elected Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet in 2022, as she won by a surprisingly large seven points in this Biden+3 district. I can’t lie and say I saw it coming, because I didn’t! When I was working for CNalysis, we had that race at Tilt R, not expecting the Michigan Democrats to do as well as they did in 2022. So, when then-Congressman Dan Kildee announced his retirement going into 2024, McDonald Rivet was seen as the perfect choice to succeed him in MI-08. She easily won, once again outrunning the top of the ticket as she won by seven points in a district that backed Trump by two points. That also meant that this ultra-competitive district would be up for grabs shortly thereafter right?
Wrong, Governor Whitmer slow-walked the living hell out of this race. She didn’t say a single word about a special election for this seat for most of 2025 as Republicans threatened to sue to force her to schedule it. She finally relented in late August 2025, scheduling the special election for May 2026 and the primaries for February 2026. Those primaries produced two winners, Saginaw Fire Department Captain Chedrick Greene on the Democratic side and attorney Jason Tunney on the Republican side. They’ll be joined on the ballot by Libertarian counselor Ali Sledz.
Greene is running as a standard Democrat, supporting tax breaks for working class families, promising to protect union rights, and promising to protect voting/reproductive/LGBTQ+ rights. With the high stakes of this race, he’s gotten a bunch of heavy hitters to campaign for him. Most notably, former State Senator/MI-08 Congresswoman McDonald Rivet, Governor Whitmer, and former US Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg (granted it’s his home state, but campaigning for a downballot Democrat in a high-profile special election is good 2028 fodder). Tunney calls himself a “conservative fighter,” who supports “parental rights” in education, wanting to restore Michigan’s right-to-work status, and cutting the state income tax. He’s been outpaced by Greene in the fundraising department, with Greene raising a little over $430k and Tunney raising a bit under $310k. That number deserves an asterisk though, because $212k of that was self-funded by Tunney. In fact, not counting self-funding, in the last campaign period, Greene out-raised Tunney by a $172k-$4k margin. Not to forget our Libertarian friend, Sledz wants to cut taxes and spending, protect “individual liberty,” and stop taxpayer subsidies from going to data centers. She has only raised $1,000 for her campaign, but her presence on the ballot probably won’t help Tunney.
As to who wins this race? Well, let’s put it like this. This is a Harris-won seat, that’s more Democratic downballot, where Democrats outpaced Republicans in the primary (with both sides having contested races) by a near 20-point margin, in a state where Democrats have an advantage in lower turnout elections thanks to the permanent mail-in ballot list, in a country where President Trump is approaching record-high levels of disapproval, in an environment that’s actively favoring Democrats. Yeah, I think Chedrick Greene wins this one and outperforms Harris in the process. If he’s outperforming McDonald Rivet’s margin in 2022, it’s a good night. If he’s outperforming Governor Whitmer’s win here in 2022 (D+13), then it’s a really good night. I don’t think he will though and he’ll land somewhere in-between D+7 and D+13, so D+10.
COLORADO RATINGS LAUNCH:
The name of the game this year for the Colorado Democrats is creating supermajorities in both chambers. They had one in the State House after 2022, but lost it after the Republicans flipped three seats in 2024. Now, they only need to flip one seat in both chambers (while holding all of their current seats) to get supermajorities in both chambers. They look likely to do that in the State House, where they are defending no competitive districts and are favored to flip the open HD-16 in northern Colorado Springs, a Harris+7 district they lost in 2024 by just three votes. They are also favored to flip HD-19 in Boulder/Weld Counties, a Harris+9 seat they lost by 110 votes after their original Democratic candidate dropped out less than 100 days before the election (which happened just before Biden did the same thing to Kamala funnily enough), and HD-51 in Loveland, a rare Trump 2020-Harris 2024 seat that’s open and features the former Mayor of Loveland running as a Democrat. They’re also trying to win back HD-50, a Trump+3 seat covering the city of Greeley, that they lost in 2024. It’s a nearly 50% Hispanic seat and has a Greeley City Councilman running for the Democrats, so they’ll probably flip it when it’s all said and done. Over in the Senate, the only competitive seat that the Democrats are defending is SD-03, a Trump+5 seat covering all of Pueblo County. It’s open this year after the Democratic incumbent decided to retire, but the environment is probably Democratic-favored enough that it’ll flip to them. The seat that they need to flip in order to win a supermajority in the Senate is SD-30, a Harris+2 seat covering northern Douglas County in the southern suburbs of Denver. That seat has been rocketing to the left in the last decade and the last Republican incumbent decided to resign last year, leaving the appointed Republican Senator to run this year. The only reason it’s at Toss-Up right now is because Douglas County is still more Republican-leaning downballot, but that might not matter in a blue wave election. Overall, Colorado Democrats look pretty favored to make supermajorities in both chambers.
MICHIGAN RATINGS LAUNCH:
I don’t think it’s controversial to say that Michigan’s one of the most competitive states this year in pretty much every election. From the Governor’s race to the US Senate to Congress to what we’re here for, the state legislature. The Republicans retook control of the State House (after losing it in 2022) in 2024, flipping six seats en route to a 58-52 majority. Control of the State Senate is still 20-18 in favor of the Democrats (though that may change to a 19-19 tie after tonight). With a Democratic environment brewing (though looking less favorable than nationwide in Michigan), the Democrats are optimistic they can form another trifecta. Starting with the Senate, the Democrats have to defend two Trump-won seats in SD-12 & SD-13, which backed Trump by seven and two points respectively. They have a strong incumbent and a fractured Republican field in SD-12, while SD-13 has a likely Democratic nominee who has faced ethics questions from his time in Oakland County government and a Republican nominee who performed pretty strongly when he was last on the ballot in 2020. They are favored to flip SD-30 in the Grand Rapids area though, a Harris+4.5 seat they only lost by 400 votes in 2022. As for the Republicans, they’re going to be sweating to hold on to SD-09, a Trump+5 seat in the northern suburbs of Detroit that they won by one point in 2022. Outside of those seats, the only other really competitive State Senate seat is SD-32, an open Trump+7 seat that stretches from Muskegon through the coast of Lake Michigan.
Over in the State House, it’s tilting in the Democrats’ favor. They do have to defend an open, Trump-won seat in the Trump+3 HD-31 west of Detroit, but other than that and HD-61 (a Trump+5 seat that has a Democratic incumbent who outran the top of the ticket by 6 in 2024), they don’t have many major defenses this year. The Republicans have six seats in the Toss-Up category, which the Democrats only need to flip four of in order to win back control of the State House. Starting with HD-27, a Trump+8 seat in the downriver area of Detroit that features a rematch of 2024 (which the Republicans only won by four points). HD-44 (a Trump+4 seat in the Battle Creek area) also features a rematch of 2024, but that was a lot closer, with the Republicans only winning then by 61 votes. The Democrats are optimistic about flipping HD-46 in the Jackson area (they only lost it by four points in 2024), thanks to a strong candidate in local school board president Jan Maino. They’re also optimistic about flipping HD-54 in Oakland County, a Trump+1 seat that has a retiring Republican incumbent. Out of all of these seats, HD-55 in Rochester/Rochester Hills might be the toughest flip. Despite only backing Trump by one point, Republican incumbent Mark Tisdel won by seven points in 2024. Finally, the Democrats are hoping to flip back their one seat on the Upper Peninsula by flipping HD-109, a Trump+1 seat covering the Marquette area. They have a few more flip opportunities in HD-28 (Trump+12, downriver Detroit) and HD-86 (Trump+0.3, Holland), but those are the big six. Overall, if the Michigan Democrats can get their stuff together, I’d say they’re probably the favorites to win another trifecta come November.
MISSOURI RATINGS LAUNCH:
The Missouri Democrats have one goal and one goal only this year, break the Republican supermajorities in Jefferson City. They need to flip three seats in the State House and two seats in the State Senate in order to do so. Starting with the Senate, it’s pretty simple, just flip SD-08 (Trump+5, eastern Kansas City suburbs) and SD-30 (Trump+2.5, Springfield). Both have strong Democratic candidates running, so if there’s any year to do it, it’s this year. It gets a bit more interesting in the State House, where the Democrats are already favored to flip two seats with the open HD-12 (a Harris+5 seat in northern Kansas City) and HD-100 (a Harris+3 seat in suburban St. Louis they only lost by one point in 2024). After that, they have the pick of the litter. Those include HD-17 (Trump+0.4, northeastern Kansas City), HD-30 (Harris+0.3, eastern Lee’s Summit), HD-96 (Harris+5, southern St. Louis outskirts), HD-101 (Harris+3.5, Chesterfield), HD-105 (Harris+1, southern St. Charles), and HD-133 (Trump+2, western Springfield). Just flipping one of those (and holding on to their competitive districts) means that total Republican control in Jefferson City is over. That’s not even getting into all the Republican-leaning districts too, meaning that the Republican House supermajority might not just be gone after November, it could be buried six feet under. I think the Missouri Democrats have a really good chance at breaking the supermajority in the House and a decent chance at doing so in the Senate.
NORTH DAKOTA RATINGS LAUNCH:
And now we head into Democratic no-man’s land. The North Dakota Republicans have an 83-11 majority in the State House and a 42-5 majority in the Senate and that’s probably not going to change after November. The Democrats have a few targets with LD-41 (Trump+8, southwestern Fargo) and LD-43 (Trump+6, central Grand Forks), but that’s about it really. Also, be on the lookout in HD-25 (Trump+38, Richland County), where Democratic incumbent Alisa Mitskog is going to try and outrun partisanship once again to win another term. She did it in 2022 by 80 votes and we’ll see if she can do it again this year!
OKLAHOMA RATINGS LAUNCH:
While the Oklahoma Democrats have gone beast mode in special elections, that hasn’t necessarily translated into escaping from the superminority they’ve been in for the last 14 years. That probably won’t change this year, but the Democrats could make more gains in suburban Oklahoma City. They’re already favored to flip HD-100, a Trump+0.5 seat in northwestern Oklahoma City they only lost by two points in 2024. Outside of that, HD-83 (Trump+2, northern Oklahoma City), HD-95 (Trump+8, suburban Oklahoma City), and HD-64 (Trump+11, eastern Lawton) appear to be their major targets for this year. The State Senate, on the other hand, doesn’t really have any big seats up for grabs, but keep an eye on SD-32 in the Lawton area. It backed Trump by 22 points, but has one of the most far-right Republicans in the Senate and a good Democratic candidate running.
SOUTH CAROLINA RATINGS LAUNCH:
With the State Senate not being up until 2028, the South Carolina Democrats are solely focused on breaking the Republican supermajority in the State House. They need to flip seven seats in order to do so, so they’ll need all the help they can get. They did recruit candidates to run in every single district, the first time that has happened that anybody could remember, so they’re off to a good start. The biggest targets are HD-12 (Trump+4, McCormick/western Greenwood Counties), HD-102 (Trump+6, northern Berkeley/eastern Dorchester Counties), and HD-116 (Trump+1, suburban Charleston). They do have one major defense in HD-91 (Trump+1.5, Barnwell/Allendale/western Orangeburg Counties), but that’s about it. They lost most of their Trump seats in 2024 (or with a Democratic incumbent suddenly switching parties at the filing deadline), so they’ve almost hit rock bottom. I say that, but now we’re probably in a toothless VRA Section 2 world, so in a state like South Carolina, rock bottom without protected districts could be a whole lot worse than an 89-35 minority. Dooming aside, breaking the supermajority is possible for the Democrats this year.
SOUTH DAKOTA RATINGS LAUNCH:
No offence to the South Dakota Democrats, because their job is hard enough as it is, but they didn’t really put a ton of effort into this year. Look at that State Senate map, they left 23 districts uncontested! At least with the State House, they can make the argument that only running one candidate could be beneficial (multi-member districts, Arizona Democrats do this all the time), but they have no excuse for the Senate.
Rant aside, the South Dakota Democrats are hoping to flip back the one HD-10 (Harris+8, northern Sioux Falls) seat they lost in 2024 and win back one of the HD-27 (Trump+0.2, Oglala Lakota/Bennett/Jackson/eastern Pennington Counties) seats they lost when an incumbent Democrat left the party last year. They also have to defend the Senate district there after the Democratic incumbent retired. Outside of that and a few flip opportunities in Sioux Falls/central Rapid City, the South Dakota Republicans are pretty set to hold on to power in Pierre for another two years. The real races here are going to come in the primaries. Don’t worry, I’ll be here to cover them!
And that’s it for this edition of Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch. I’ll be back next week to cover the state legislative primaries in Nebraska & West Virginia. Until then, I’ve been Uncrewed/Chris (you can follow me on Twitter @Uncrewed, same on Bluesky!) and don’t forget to stay awesome!