State Legislative Election Watch- 2026 North Carolina Primary Preview

Covering all of the important state legislative primaries going down in North Carolina on Tuesday!

STATE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION WATCH- March 1st, 2026

INTRO:

Hello everyone and welcome to Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch! I’m Uncrewed/Chris and this is your one-stop-shop to everything you need to know about state legislative elections from around the country. We’re finally back in primary season folks! We’ve got three states with state legislative primaries on Tuesday: Arkansas, North Carolina, & Texas. We’re starting things off with North Carolina today, which features several major primaries from both parties. So, without further ado, let’s get to it!

SD-01 (Northeastern North Carolina. Trump+15) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Bobby Hanig running for NC-01 (see above), four Republicans are running to replace him in this solidly Republican district: Gates County Commissioner David Forsythe, retired judge Jerry Tillett, farmer Jay Lane, and US Marine Corps veteran Cole Johnson.

Forsythe (who also serves as the Gates County Republican Party Chairman) is running as a self-professed “common-sense Republican,” promising to protect local fisheries, invest in the rural economy, and lower taxes. Tillett is running as a conservative, touting his support for “law and order,” free enterprise, and economic prosperity. Lane is running on a similarly conservative platform, promising to support law enforcement, stand up for local farmers/fishers, and protect the 2nd Amendment. He’s backed by State Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler and several State Senators. Finally, Johnson is probably the most right-wing candidate here, touting his support for individual liberties (by attacking a proposed ban on raw milk), his opposition to abortion, and wanting to cut “government waste.”

Lane & Tillett have led the pack in fundraising, with Johnson trailing far behind and Forsythe not even having a campaign organization set up. He has attacked Lane & Tillett though for not being Republican enough (attacking Lane for never voting in a Republican primary and Tillett for being a Democrat until 2014). Tillett also has a history of ethics complaints during his time as judge, which has actually led to him being sued by the state bar! I think Lane wins, but Tillett has decent name recognition and shouldn’t be counted out.

SD-05 (Pitt/Edgecombe Counties, Harris+10) (D-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Kandie Smith won re-election by 10 points last year, but only won by four points back in 2022, so the Republicans are hoping she could be vulnerable this year. I have my doubts, but the Republicans have two candidates trying to prove me wrong: businessman Henry Hostetler and ghost candidate Angelene Mitchell. Hostetler is running as a standard Republican, touting his support for cutting taxes, “parental rights” in education, and increasing funding for law enforcement. He should win by default, especially if Mitchell isn’t running a campaign.

SD-09 (Bladen County to Jones County, Trump+29) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Brent Jackson is facing a challenge from US Air Force veteran William Barbour in this deeply Republican district. Barbour is running as a conservative, touting his opposition to gun control, promising to protect children from “harmful ideologies,” and wanting to strictly adhere to the US Constitution. In a sign of how seriously he’s taking this campaign, Jackson has not updated his website in six years (it still talks about his plans for COVID-19!). Jackson should win this one easily.

SD-10 (Johnston County, Trump+21.5) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Benton Sawrey is facing a challenge from community activist Caitlin Marsh in this solidly Republican district covering the suburbs/exurbs of Raleigh.

Sawrey is running as a right-winger, wanting to eliminate the state income tax, protect “traditional values,” and preserve local farmland. Marsh is a self-professed “conservative Republican,” but she’s running a more local-focused campaign. She wants to stop the rapid urbanization that has affected Johnston County (it’s doubled in size from 120,000 to 240,000 in the last two decades), improve local schools, and lower property taxes. Sawrey should win this one easily, but I’m interested to see if there’s a backlash to the recent suburbanization of the district. If there is, Marsh could rack up a good amount of votes.

SD-12 (Harnett/Lee Counties, Trump+24) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

Republican incumbent Jim Burgin is running for a fifth term in this deeply Republican district, but first he has to get through former Harnett County Commissioner Tim McNeil in the primary. Neither candidate is really running much of a campaign, with Burgin’s only post about the race being a reminder to vote early and McNeil’s only online presence being a quote in a news article about him wanting to improve local education without raising taxes. Burgin will win this one easily.

Over on the Democratic side, two candidates are running: US Army veteran/2024 nominee Tanya White Anderson and journalist Jheri Hardaway. Anderson is running as a standard Democrat, promising to fight for higher teacher salaries, expanded access to affordable housing, and increased benefits for veterans. Hardaway is running a bit to her left, supporting increased salaries for teachers, “healthcare for all,” and increasing the minimum wage. With both candidates not raising a ton of money, I think Anderson wins based on name recognition from her 2024 run.

SD-17 (Western Wake County, Harris+29) (D-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Despite Democratic incumbent Sydney Batch representing a deeply Democratic district, there is a Republican primary here and we’re covering it because we cover EVERY state legislative primary. Two Republicans are running: political aide Shirley Johnson and ghost candidate Sarah Al-Baghdadi. Johnson is a conservative, touting her opposition to “radical ideology” in classrooms, promising to support law enforcement, and promising to cut “wasteful spending.” Al-Baghdadi has nothing about her campaign online, so Johnson should win this easily.

SD-18 (Granville/northern Wake Counties, Trump+0.5) (D-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

This district north of Raleigh is the only Trump-won district to be represented by a Democrat in the State Senate, with Democrat Terence Everitt winning here by a little over 100 votes in 2024 as Trump carried this district by 0.5%. That has led to him probably being the most vulnerable Senate Democrat in North Carolina this year. It’s also led to two Republicans attempting to stop his attempt for a second term: school board member Cheryl Caulfield and attorney Chris Stock.

Caulfield is running as a standard Republican, advocating for school choice, cracking down on illegal immigration, and lower property taxes. She’s backed by several local elected officials (most notably State Representative Erin Pare). Stock is running to Caulfield’s right, promising to slash regulations, end cashless bail, and “protect girls’ sports.” He’s backed by State Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler and several other state legislators. Stock has also led Caulfield in the fundraising department. This race is going to be very close, but I think Caulfield narrowly pulls it out. I could see Stock winning for sure though.

SD-21 (Moore/eastern Cumberland Counties, Trump+23) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Tom McInnis faces a challenge from businessman Ray Daly in this solidly Republican district.

McInnis is mostly running on his conservative legislative record, touting his efforts to crack down on fentanyl, preserve the 2nd Amendment, and improve local economic development. Daly is running a more local-focused campaign, attacking McInnis for supporting “mass development,” wanting to build a better road system, and promising to stand against the building of a new casino. McInnis should win this one, but I’m interested to see how much of the vote Daly gets as a local protest vote.

SD-22 (Northern Durham County, Harris+59) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Sophia Chitlik was able to pull off a progressive upset in 2024, unseating moderate incumbent Mike Woodard. Now she wants a second term in the Senate, but first she has to get through former Durham City Councilwoman DeDreana Freeman in the primary.

Like I mentioned earlier, Chitlik is a progressive. She supports expanding access to childhood education, protecting women’s rights, and building more affordable housing. She’s backed by several of her colleagues, several Durham city officials, and several progressive groups. Freeman is running on a similar platform (though more vague), promising to fight for “social justice, environmental justice, and economic justice.” She’s raised just a smidge over $1,000 for her campaign, so Chitlik should be fine here.

SD-26 (Rockingham/eastern Guilford Counties, Trump+22) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

In what could be North Carolina’s most high profile state legislative primary in ages, Republican incumbents/State Senate President pro tempore Phil Berger faces a challenge from Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page in this deeply Republican district.

Perhaps in a sign of knowing how close this race is going to be, Berger is trying to tie himself as close to Trump as possible. He’s mostly running on his record of advancing the “Trump Agenda,” ergo touting his efforts to crack down on illegal immigration, cut taxes, and expand energy production in North Carolina. He’s endorsed by President Trump (after a bit of a quid pro quo by redrawing NC-01, see NC-01 for more on that), US Senator Ted Budd, US Congresspeople Virginia Foxx & Addison McDowell, and several other Republican elected officials. Page is running as a conservative outsider, proudly declaring himself as “not a career politician” (even though he’s been an elected official since 1998!). He wants to increase penalties for criminals, raise teacher salaries, and improve government transparency (which he has attacked Berger for worsening). He has also attacked Berger for not being conservative enough and for not endorsing Trump at first in 2016 (he endorsed Ted Cruz in the primaries). However, this primary probably isn’t going to come down to who’s more conservative. It’s probably going to come down to one issue, casinos.

Berger is a huge proponent of building new casinos in North Carolina, pointing to the economic developments it would bring to the state. On the other hand, Page is heavily against them, with Page leading protests a few years ago with residents of the district against them. It’s a very politically toxic issue, so much so that Berger’s son almost lost his County Commissioner job in 2024 because he supported them! While Berger says that the issue is off the table now, it’s clear that there’s still lingering resentment over it. We saw it in 2024 where Berger only won re-election by 13 in this Trump+21 district. Will it be enough to unseat him on Tuesday? I’d lean towards no, but Page is a very strong candidate with a very strong base. I could definitely see Berger losing, but I think the most powerful Republican in the State Senate holds on for another term.

SD-30 (Davidson/Davie Counties, Trump+47) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Steve Jarvis is facing a primary challenge from the man he succeeded in the State Senate, Eddie Gallimore, in this deeply Republican district. Jarvis is running as a conservative, touting his support for the 2nd Amendment, the US Constitution, and low taxes. Gallimore has no campaign presence online. Jarvis should win this third matchup with Gallimore easily (he beat Gallimore in 2020 by a 53-47 margin and in 2022 by a 66-34 margin).

SD-32 (Winston-Salem, Harris+40) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Paul Lowe is facing off against US Air Force veteran Gardenia Henley in the Democratic primary for this deeply Democratic seat. Henley is running as a progressive, promising to protect women’s rights, improve the local school system, and raise the minimum wage. She’s endorsed by the state Progressive Caucus. Henley lost to Lowe in 2024 by a 65-35 margin and I expect something similar to that on Tuesday.

SD-34 (Cabarrus County, Trump+8) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Chris Measmer was appointed to this Republican-leaning seat in suburban/exurban Charlotte last April. He’s now facing a primary challenge for a full term against former State Representative Kevin Crutchfield.

Measmer is running as a standard Republican, touting his efforts to improve wait times at the DMV, cut regulations for small businesses, and ban sanctuary cities/force local governments to work with ICE. He’s backed by the Koch-backed Americans For Prosperity and the NRA. Crutchfield is running a bit to his right, touting his efforts to stop “the left” from infringing on the 2nd Amendment, cut regulations for businesses, and increase funding for law enforcement. Measmer should be the favorite here given his quasi-incumbency and a fundraising advantage.

SD-37 (Iredell/northern Mecklenburg Counties, Trump+27) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Vickie Sawyer is running for re-election to her deeply Republican district, but she’ll have to wait until Tuesday to find out her November opponent. The Democrats will choose between two candidates: community organizer Raygan Angel and real estate broker Precinda Bjorgen. Raygan is running as a standard liberal, supporting scrapping the state’s Republican gerrymander, increasing funding for public schools, and expanding access to affordable healthcare. He’s backed by the Charlotte Observer and several Democratic state legislators. Bjorgen has no campaign presence online and hasn’t raised any money, so Angel should win this one.

HD-01 (Currituck County to Washington County, Trump+30) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Ed Goodwin is facing a primary challenge from Washington County Commissioner John Spruill in this deeply Republican district in northeastern North Carolina.

Goodwin is mostly running on his conservative record, touting his efforts to secure investments in every county in the district, lower taxes, and protect “constitutional freedoms.” Spruill is running a similar campaign, wanting to lower taxes, improve public safety, and improve local education. He’s also attacked Goodwin for not getting enough done in Raleigh, while pointing to his own success in Washington County. In a bit of a weird twist, Spruill has actually heavily outpaced Goodwin in the fundraising department. Goodwin hasn’t even raised any money, instead spending money from previous campaigns. I think there’s a very real possibility Spruill wins here as Goodwin doesn’t seem to be running that hard of a campaign. For now though, I think Goodwin narrowly pulls off the win.

HD-04 (Duplin/southern Wayne Counties, Trump+24) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Jimmy Dixon initially announced his retirement from the State House last year, but quickly reversed his decision. That about face didn’t really earn him any major challengers, with conservative activist Marcella Barbour being the only other candidate to file to run in this deeply Republican district. Barbour, the wife of SD-09 candidate William Barbour, is running as a right-winger, touting her support for “pro-marriage values,” the 2nd Amendment, and investing in rural healthcare. Much like her husband’s race, the Republican incumbent here hasn’t done any campaigning and Barbour hasn’t raised any money. Dixon should win this easily.

HD-06 (Western Harnett County, Trump+22) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

Republican incumbent Joe Pike is facing off against Harnett County Commissioner Bill Morris in this solidly Republican district. Morris is running as a right-wing culture warrior, promising to end illegal immigration, “eliminate” DEI, and “defend Christian values.” He’s raised a good amount of money, especially compared to Pike (who’s not really running a campaign, at least online). I could definitely see Morris winning, but I think incumbency pulls Pike over the finish line.

On the Democratic side, two candidates are running: Harnett County NAACP President Tony Spears and construction worker Joshua Estep. Spears is running as a standard Democrat, wanting to increase teacher salaries, expand voting access, and expand access to affordable housing. Estep is running on a similar platform, wanting to build more housing, increase teacher pay, and expand access to affordable healthcare. Neither candidate has raised much money, so I’m going to go with Spears winning (mostly based on his history as NAACP President). It’s a total coin flip though.

HD-09 (Eastern Pitt County, Trump+10) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Timothy Reeder is running for re-election in his Republican-leaning seat and it might be competitive in November. Before we get there, the Democrats need to pick a candidate. They’ll choose between community activist/2024 nominee Claire Kempner and real estate broker Lenton Brown. Kempner is running as a standard Democrat, promising to lower the cost of living by tackling price-gouging and support public schools. Brown doesn’t have a big campaign presence online, but he does have a Facebook page where he’s attacking Kempner for being a “con artist” who’s “trying to take people’s guns away.” He’s got a long post attacking her, ultimately ending by calling Kempner a con artist who “just wants to use her baby as a prop and take $50,000.” Nastiness aside, Kempner should win this one. Lenton hasn’t raised any money and Kempner has name recognition from 2024.

HD-16 (Pender/southern Onslow Counties, Trump+39) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Carson Smith is facing a challenge from Holly Ridge Town Councilman Joshua Patti in this deeply Republican district. Patti is running as a self-professed “common-sense candidate,” supporting “fiscal responsibility,” investing in public education (while also promoting school choice), and supporting “sensible” development. Smith has no campaign presence online, but he should be the favorite given that Patti really hasn’t raised any money for his campaign.

HD-17 (Northern/western Brunswick County, Trump+23) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Frank Iler is facing off against accountant Nia Moore in this deeply Republican district in southeastern North Carolina. Iller calls himself a “common-sense competent conservative.” (say that ten times fast) He wants to lower taxes, support “government efficiency,” and increase funding for law enforcement. He’s backed by the NRA and the Chamber of Commerce. Moore has no campaign presence online except for one online interview where she touts her support for “reasonable growth” and local government control. Iler is the heavy favorite to win.

HD-22 (Sampson/Bladen Counties, Trump+27) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent William Brisson is retiring after nearly 20 years in the State House, leading to two Republicans vying to replace him in this deeply Republican district: former Sampson County Commissioner Jerol Kivett and farmer Wellie Jackson.

Kivett is running as a standard Republican, touting his support for expanding the rural economy, investing in mental health services, and increasing funding for law enforcement. He’s endorsed by several local elected officials, most notably retiring Representative Brisson. Jackson is running as a conservative, touting his support for expanding vocational education, improving funding for law enforcement, and touting the fact that he provided the turkeys that President Trump pardoned in 2019. He’s backed by State Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler and several of the more right-wing State Representatives. I think Kivett wins this one, but Jackson has a solid fundraising advantage that might push him over the edge.

HD-23 (Edgecombie/Martin/Bertie Counties, Harris+12.5) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Shelly Willingham has attracted some controversy for voting with Republicans to overturn Governor Josh Stein’s veto overrides, which earned him a primary opponent in accountant Patricia Smith. Smith is running as a standard Democrat, focusing on improving the local economy, expanding affordable housing, and expanding funding for public schools. She’s endorsed by Planned Parenthood and the North Carolina Progressive Caucus. I think Willingham wins this, especially because Smith hasn’t raised any money, but I could see Smith winning if voters are tired of him voting with Republicans.

HD-25 (Nash County, Trump+0.1) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Allen Chesser is one of the top targets for Democrats in November, especially after the Democrats only lost his district by 461 votes in 2024. The Democrats will have to pick their nominee first and they’ll have two choices to choose from: nonprofit official/2024 nominee Lorenza Wilkins and former US Department of Energy official Harris Walker.

Wilkins is running as a standard Democrat, supporting increasing funding for public schools, protecting small businesses, and expanding funding for mental health services. He’s backed by Planned Parenthood and the AFL-CIO. Walker is running as a moderate, wanting to attract more businesses to the district, improve workforce development programs, and support law enforcement. He’s backed by former NC-01 Congressman G.K. Butterfield. I think Wilkins wins this one given his name recognition from 2024 and a fundraising advantage, but Walker has an outside shot.

HD-26 (Northern Johnston County, Trump+12) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Donna McDowell White is facing off against teacher Margie Riedel in the first of several left-wing primary challenges from teachers in the Republican primaries this year.

White is running as a conservative, touting her efforts to cut taxes, crack down on “government waste,” and improve “affordability.” Riedel is running to her left, wanting to improve public education, preserve local farmland, and generally lower costs. White should be the favorite here.

HD-27 (Halifax/Warren/Northampton Counties, Harris+17) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Rodney Pierce pulled off an upset in 2024 when he unseated moderate State Representative Michael Wray in this solidly Democratic district in northeastern North Carolina. Wray was really conservative and voted with Republicans on numerous different occasions. That helped propel Pierce to a 34 vote win over Wray, who tried to get the results thrown out. It didn’t work and Pierce was elected in November to his first term.

Now, Wray is running again. He’s running on his old legislative record of bringing investments to the district and has attacked Pierce for not passing any bills. He also wants to increase funding for public schools, protect Medicaid, and expand workforce development programs. Yeah, he’s trying to hide his more moderate positions this time around. Pierce is running to his left, wanting to expand funding for public education, expand access to affordable housing, and pass tax cuts for working families instead of the rich. He’s backed by Governor Josh Stein and former NC-01 Congresspeople Eva Clayton & G.K. Butterfield. The two are neck-and-neck in fundraising, but I think Pierce wins out here. Wray really only had incumbency going for him before he lost and he’s so desperate now that he’s asking for Republicans to register as Democrats to vote for him. Pierce probably wins this and sends Wray packing, hopefully for good.

HD-28 (Southern Johnston County, Trump+34) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Larry Strickland is facing off against ghost candidate Eric Bowles in this deeply Republican district. Bowles has no campaign presence anywhere and hasn’t raised any money, so the conservative Strickland should win this easily.

HD-32 (Granville/northern Vance Counties, Harris+0.5) (D-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

Democratic incumbent Bryan Cohn is retiring after just one term in this highly competitive district, leaving both parties with primaries to determine who will replace him.

On the Democratic side, it’s a battle between Oxford City Commissioner Curtis McRae and Henderson Mayor Melissa Elliott. Neither candidate has much in the way of platforms, with Elliott not even raising any money. McRae is backed by outgoing State Representative Cohn though and his base is probably bigger than Elliott’s base. Because of that, I think McRae wins this one, but it’s a total crapshoot.

On the Republican side, we have two candidates running: former State Representative Frank Sossamon and teacher Pamela Ayscue. Sossamon is mostly running on his record in the State House, touting his ability to get economic investments in the districts and protecting local farmland. Ayscue, who was a Democrat until recently, is running almost entirely on improving local education and increasing teacher pay, attacking Sossamon for the state of the local school system. She’s one of several candidates recruited by the group NC Educators On The Ballot, which has recruited six different teachers to run in Republican primaries to focus on the needs of students/schools. Ayscue’s recent history as a Democrat and still being a pretty liberal candidate has led to her getting sanctioned by both the Granville & Vance County Republican Parties. Sossamon should win this one easily, but it’ll be fun to see how much of the vote Ayscue gets.

HD-35 (Northern Wake County, Trump+2) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Mike Schietzelt has a tough November election ahead of him in this suburban Raleigh district, but he first has to face a NC Educators On The Ballot candidate in the primary in teacher Michele Joyner-Dinwiddie.

Schietzelt is running as a standard Republican, touting his efforts to lower costs, increase teacher salaries, and force local law enforcement to work with ICE. Joyner-Dinwiddie is almost entirely focused on education, wanting to further increase teacher salaries, improve local infrastructure, and support local law enforcement. Schietzelt should win this one easily before facing another tough race in November against the Democratic nominee, attorney Evonne Hopkins.

HD-37 (Southern Wake County, Trump+3) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Erin Pare is one of two Republicans left representing Wake County and she’s in for a tough November election against the Democrats trying to flip this suburban seat blue. Before we get there, the Democrats have to pick a candidate. They have three candidates running: college professor Marcus Gadson, businessman Winn Decker, and healthcare consultant Ralph Clements.

Gadson is running as a standard Democrat, focusing on increasing access to affordable housing, improving public education, and increasing efforts to improve public safety. He’s backed by the state’s largest newspaper, the News and Observer. Decker is running a similar campaign, focused on lowering costs, improving public schools, and fixing local infrastructure. He’s backed by the AFL-CIO and several local elected officials. Finally, Clements is also running as a generic Democrat, promising to “restore trust” in the government, expand access to early childhood education, and protect access to reproductive healthcare. This one probably comes down to either Gadson or Decker, with Gadson having the financial advantage and Decker having the endorsement advantage. Ultimately, I think Gadson narrowly pulls it off.

HD-38 (Eastern Raleigh, Harris+62) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Abe Jones is facing off against community activist Collin Fearns in this deeply Democratic district. Jones is mostly running on his legislative record, touting his experience in the legislature trying to pass criminal justice reform, vocational education funding, and funding for more affordable housing. He’s backed by several local elected officials. Fearns is running to his left, wanting to lower costs (and heavily attacking energy giant Duke Energy in the process), improve government transparency, and reform the criminal justice system. Jones should be fine here, given that Fearns hasn’t really raised much money.

HD-43 (Eastern Cumberland County, Trump+13) (R-Held) (DEM/GOP PRIMARIES):

Republican incumbent Dianne Wheatley is being challenged by businessman Clarence Goins in this solidly Republican district east of Fayetteville. Wheatley is running as a standard Republican, touting her opposition to tax increases, her efforts to support local schools, and support for lowering healthcare costs. Goins is running as a “conservative Christian,” proudly supporting the 2nd Amendment, ICE, and farmers. While Goins did barely lose to Wheatley in 2022 (by under 100 votes!), that probably won’t be the case this year as Goins hasn’t really raised any money and is mostly relying on AI-generated Facebook images for his campaign. Wheatley should win this easily.

On the Democratic side, two candidates are running: consultant Janene Ackles and ghost candidate Ronald Pittman. Ackles wants to expand access to healthcare, protect local farmers, and protect the local environment. Given that Pittman has no campaign presence anywhere and hasn’t raised any money, Ackles should win this one.

HD-45 (Southern Fayetteville, Harris+15) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Frances Jackson is trying to fend off a challenge from community organizer Qu’Derrick Covington in this solidly Democratic district in Fayetteville. Jackson is mostly running on her experience in the State House, touting her efforts to expand Medicaid, restore health benefits for teachers, and expand Pre-K programs. Covington is running a bit to her left, focusing on expanding school programs, improving community policing efforts, and expanding access to affordable healthcare. Covington has not raised any money for his campaign, so Jackson’s incumbency should give her the win here.

HD-48 (Hoke/Scotland Counties, Harris+1) (D-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Two Republicans are running to challenge Democratic incumbent Garland Pierce in this Democratic-leaning district in the Sandhills: doctor/2024 nominee Ralph Carter and US Army veteran Kirk Lowery.

Carter is running as a conservative, touting his support for lowering property taxes, “medical freedom,” (which he uses as a short-hand for complaining about “government overreach” during the COVID-19 pandemic) and bringing more water to the district. He’s endorsed by NC-09 Congressman Mark Harris, several Scotland County elected officials, and several “medical freedom” groups. Lowery is running on a vaguely conservative platform, supporting a “pro-life agenda,” lowering costs for families, and advocating for the Lumbee people. Carter should win this one given his name recognition from 2024 and local support.

HD-50 (Caswell/northern Orange Counties, Harris+15) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Renee Price is trying to fend off two challengers in this solidly Democratic seat: nonprofit director Mary Lucas and progressive activist Brandall Redd.

Price is running as a progressive Democrat, promising to support public education, fight back against voter disenfranchisement, and fight for “environmental justice.” She’s endorsed by several local elected officials, the Working Families Party, and other progressive groups. Lucas is running on a similar platform, wanting to expand access to affordable healthcare, expand funding for public schools, and stand up for immigrants. She said she’s running because Price hasn’t spoken up enough about the ongoing injustices in the country. Finally, Redd is running a bit to the left of both women, promising to protect “personal freedom,” support LGBTQ+ North Carolinians, and expand funding for public schools. Price should be the favorite here, as both Lucas & Redd haven’t raised much money and she has the backing of most major progressive groups.

HD-51 (Lee/eastern Moore Counties, Trump+26) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent John Sauls is retiring from this deeply Republican district and two Republicans are running to replace him: school board member Sherry Lynn Womack and Sanford City Councilman Charles Taylor.

Womack is running as a conservative, touting her support for “smart growth,” school choice, and wanting to make sure elections are more “secure.” She’s backed by several conservative groups and the head of the North Carolina branch of the Freedom Caucus. Taylor is running as a conservative, calling himself “pro-life and pro-gun” and touting his bonafides as an “America First Conservative.” He’s backed by retiring Representative Sauls and State Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler. I’d say Taylor has the advantage here given his endorsements and financial advantage, but I could see Womack winning if the electorate is looking for a more conservative candidate.

HD-55 (Anson/eastern Union Counties, Trump+26) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Mark Brody decided to retire from this deeply Republican seat, leading to three Republicans running to replace him: Union County Commissioner Clancy Baucom, real estate broker John Powell, and businessman Richard Miller.

Baucom is running as a right-winger, touting his opposition to “government overreach,” promising to protect farmland, and supporting “election integrity.” Powell is running on a similarly conservative platform, promising to oppose tax hikes, support law enforcement, and defend “parental rights” in education (alongside using his Christianity to reason why he wants to protect girls’ sports). Miller is running a more local-focused campaign, wanting to expand after-school programs, expand mental healthcare services, and bring new businesses to the district. Baucom is the favorite to win here given his name recognition from his time as County Commissioner and having a good financial advantage over Powell & Miller.

HD-59 (Eastern/southern Guilford County, Trump+10) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

This Republican-leaning seat east of Greensboro could be competitive in November, but first the Democrats need to pick a candidate to face Republican incumbent Alan Branston. They’ll pick between two candidates: former Greensboro NAACP President Bradley Hunt and nonprofit executive Elma Hairston.

Hunt is running as a progressive Democrat, focused on lowering costs, expanding funding for public schools, and expanding access to affordable healthcare. Hairston is running as a more moderate Democrat, wanting to expand access to affordable healthcare, expand workforce development programs, and promising to make “practical, strategy-based” approaches to fiscal policy. Hairston has a fundraising lead over Hunt too, which makes me think she pulls this one off and advances to a potentially competitive November election.

HD-60 (High Point, Harris+24) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Amanda Cook was appointed to this deeply Democratic district in November 2025 after the previous incumbent (Cecil Brockman, who was a major thorn in the side to Democrats because he kept voting with Republicans) was arrested on child s*x offense charges. After replacing that piece of trash, Cook has decided to run for a full term, but she’s not the only Democrat running. Three other Democrats are running here: education professional Angie Williams-McMichael, community activist Joseph Alston, and former Guilford County Commissioner Bruce Davis.

Cook is running as a progressive Democrat, wanting to establish state-funded healthcare subsidies, end subsidies for private schools, and support transgender rights. She’s backed by several local elected officials and is the only candidate to have actually raised any money. Williams-McMichael (who calls herself “Dr A”) is running as a generic Democrat, wanting to expand access to affordable housing and education and support older residents. She’s backed by neighboring district Representative/Minority Whip Amos Quick and Guilford County Commissioner Carlvena Foster. Alston is running as a standard Democrat, wanting to expand workforce development programs, expand funding for public schools, and protect voting rights. Finally, Davis has no campaign presence anywhere online and hasn’t raised any money.

Just as a reminder, in North Carolina, you only need 30% of the vote to avoid a runoff, so if one of these candidates gets in-between 30% & 50%, they’ll win without a runoff. I think that’ll be the case as Cook probably wins with a plurality over Williams-McMichael. I’m not counting her out though, especially because of her recent string of good endorsements.

HD-65 (Rockingham County, Trump+36) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Reece Pyrtle is being challenged by two opponents in this deeply Republican seat: attorney Seth Woodall and businessman Joseph Gibson.

Pyrtle calls himself a “conservative champion,” (you can declare yourself a champion?) touting his efforts to secure the border, fund law enforcement, and cut taxes. He’s backed by NC-05 Congresswoman Virginia Foxx, State House Speaker Destin Hall, and several other of his fellow State Representatives. Woodall is running as an outsider conservative, promising to bring a “fresh face” to Raleigh and promising to protect law enforcement and veterans. Gibson is running hard to the right of both of them, promising to fight “Democrats who worship the tribune god of Darwin, Freud, and Marx” and promising to stop the “New World Order.” In his 2024 run here against Pyrtle, he attracted controversy for supporting the National Socialist Movement, one of America’s foremost Nazi groups. Gibson denied that back then, but he still lost to Pyrtle by an 80-20 margin. Pyrtle should win here, but the fact that he’s touting big name endorsements might be a sign that Republican voters in Rockingham County are tired of any incumbent (see SD-26 for more details!), potentially giving Woodall an opening.

HD-67 (Stanly/Montgomery Counties, Trump+47.5) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

When I said I cover every state legislative primary on the State Legislative Election Watch, I mean it! Two Democrats are running for the right to challenge Republican incumbent Cody Huneycutt in this deeply Republican district: community activist Jocelyn Torres and nonprofit executive Roddrick Howell. Torres wants to expand access to affordable housing and has pointed to Seattle’s housing near transit as a model for North Carolina. She also wants to improve community participation and public safety. Howell wants to attract more businesses to the district, expand workforce development programs, and protect Medicaid funding. This one’s a pure tossup (as most Democratic primaries in ultra-Republican districts are), so I’m just going to go with Howell winning because he’s the only candidate with a campaign presence online.

HD-73 (Central Cabarrus County, Trump+6) (R-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

This is a bit depressing. The Democrats originally had a primary here in this suburban Charlotte seat between businessman Thomas Monks and businesswoman Kim DeLaney. However, last month, DeLaney sadly passed away. Her name will remain on the ballot, but Monks has pretty much won this primary by default and will go on to face Republican incumbent Jonathan Almond in November.

HD-78 (Eastern Randolph/western Moore Counties, Trump+50) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Neal Jackson is facing off against Wildlife Major Mark Dutton in the Republican primary for this deeply Republican seat. While Jackson is a right-winger (touting his pro-life bonafides, his opposition to “dictatorial governments,” and support for “parental rights” in education), Dutton is running a more local-focused campaign, promising to support law enforcement, crack down on crime, and support healthcare workers. He’s raised a decent amount of money, but Jackson should still be the favorite here.

HD-79 (Beaufort County to eastern Dare County, Trump+27) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Keith Kidwell heads the North Carolina branch of the far-right Freedom Caucus, but he’s facing a challenge from a similarly conservative candidate in this deeply Republican district in the form of businessman Darren Armstrong. Armstrong wants to protect local farmers, support the 2nd Amendment, and keep “woke ideology” out of schools.

If they’re so similar, why is Armstrong even running? Well, apparently it’s because Kidwell and the House Agriculture Committee Chairman Jimmy Dixon had a disagreement over parts of a farm bill that would protect pesticide companies from lawsuits. That could also be why Armstrong is backed by State Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler. I do think Kidwell hangs on, but if the farmers are pissed enough in this district, I can definitely see Armstrong winning.

HD-80 (Eastern Davidson County, Trump+51) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Sam Watford is facing a challenge from businessman Joseph Byrne in this deeply Republican district. Byrne is running a vaguely conservative campaign, touting his support for the 2nd Amendment and “religious liberty.” I say vaguely because he doesn’t have a campaign website/Facebook and hasn’t really raised any money. Watford will win this easily.

HD-81 (Western Davidson County, Trump+44) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Larry Potts is facing a challenge from teacher Pamela Zanni in this deeply Republican district as a part of the whole NC Educators on the Ballot organization from earlier. Zanni hasn’t really run a campaign outside of a few Facebook posts about needing to focus more on schools and hasn’t raised any money, so Potts should win this easily.

HD-89 (Eastern Catawba/western Iredell Counties, Trump+49) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Mitchell Setzer is facing a challenge from teacher Lisa Koperski in this deeply Republican district in another instance of the NC Educators on the Ballot recruiting teachers to run in Republican primaries. Koperski wants to bring her experience as a teacher to the state legislature, but she hasn’t raised any money, so Setzer is the heavy favorite.

HD-90 (Surry/northern Wilkes Counties, Trump+57) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

With Republican incumbent Sarah Stevens running for the State Supreme Court, three Republicans are running to replace her in this deeply Republican district: former State Lottery Commissioner AJ Daoud, North Carolina Highway Patrol Trooper Dan Kiger, and police officer Paul Barker.

Daoud is a right-winger, promising to keep taxes low, support ICE, and protect the 2nd Amendment. He’s not backed by any one major, but he’s got a lot of pictures with him and President Trump (subtlety be damned!). Kiger is running a vaguely conservative campaign, touting his support for cutting regulations for small businesses, wanting to improve economic development, and supporting local schools. Finally, Barker is running as a right-winger, promising to fight against “government overreach,” promote “fiscal responsibility,” and support “family values.” Daoud leads the pack in fundraising, with Barker trailing and Kiger not really raising much of anything. Daoud should be the favorite here, but I could see Barker getting the nod.

HD-95 (Southern Iredell County, Trump+27) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Todd Carver is facing off against local school board member Mike Kubiniec in the Republican primary for this deeply Republican district north of Charlotte. Kubiniec is running as a conservative, touting his support for cracking down on crime, lowering taxes, and improving “election integrity.” Carver hasn’t done much campaigning, but he has a solid financial advantage over Kubiniec and the backing of the Fraternal Order of Police. Carver should be the favorite here.

HD-99 (Northeastern Charlotte, Harris+64) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Nasif Majeed was one of several Democrats in the last legislative session to vote with Republicans to overturn Governor Stein’s vetoes. Specifically, he voted to overturn Stein’s veto of a bill that defined “sex” in North Carolina as based on biological features (it was an anti-trans bill). That earned him two primary challengers: businesswoman Veleria Levy and progressive activist Tucker Neal, who dropped out after the ballot was certified and endorsed Levy.

Majeed is running on his legislative record, touting his efforts to fund public schools, improve local infrastructure, and support unions. He’s calling Levy “too extreme, too inexperienced, and too untrustworthy.” Levy is running as a progressive, touting her support for expanding affordable healthcare for minority communities, wanting to raise the minimum wage to a “living wage,” and expanding funding for reliable public transit. She’s backed by several progressive groups. Majeed has been able to outpace Levy in the fundraising department, but neither candidate has raised a ton of money. I think Majeed’s incumbency pushes him over the finish line, but I could definitely see Levy winning thanks to progressive support.

HD-105 (Southern Mecklenburg County, Harris+1) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Tricia Cotham is probably one of the more infamous Republicans in the State House, with her party switch from Democrat to Republican in April 2023 giving the Republicans the supermajority in the State House. She barely won re-election in her ultra-competitive suburban Charlotte seat in 2024 and will be a top target for Democrats again this year.

She probably doesn’t have to worry about making it through a Republican primary though, as her only opponent is a NC Educators on the Ballot candidate in teacher Kelly VanHorn. VanHorn is running as a liberal, heavily touting her opposition to MAGA, wanting to increase funding for public schools, and expand funding for workforce development programs. She’s already been banned from Mecklenburg County GOP meetings, so Cotham will probably win this one easily.

HD-106 (Northern Charlotte, Harris+51) (D-Held) (DEM PRIMARY):

Democratic incumbent Carla Cunningham was one of several Democrats to vote to overturn Governor Stein’s vetoes last year and she was probably the most vocal one to do so. After voting to give more power to ICE in the state, she had this to say:

Her hard right-wing turn on immigration has attracted two challengers: pastor Rodney Sadler and North Carolina Army National Guard veteran Vermanno Bowman.

Cunningham is mostly running on her legislative record (conveniently avoiding her votes to overturn Stein’s vetoes), touting her efforts to direct funding to local nonprofits, improve behavioral health services, and crack down on crime. She’s backed by the Fraternal Order of Police. Sadler is running to Cunningham’s left, wanting to expand funding for public schools, cut housing costs, and raise the minimum wage to make it a “living wage.” He’s backed by Governor Stein, several local elected officials, several local unions, and the Working Families Party. Bowman, who challenged Cunningham in 2024 and lost by over 70 points, is running as a progressive. He supports Medicare-For-All, expanding funding for public education, and the Green New Deal.

Sadler has had a solid financial advantage over Cunningham. That, combined with the bevy of endorsements for the pastor, makes me think the Sadler will beat Cunningham. Cunningham really could have kept her head down like Majeed and Willingham earlier and not beat her chest about voting to overturn Stein’s vetoes and she probably would have survived. But, she wanted to make a spectacle for herself and now she’s paying the consequences.

HD-110 (Northern Cleveland/western Gaston Counties, Trump+32) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Kelly Hastings (after initially declining to run again after self-imposing a term limit on himself) is facing a challenge from pharmacist Caroline Eason in this deeply Republican district.

Hastings is running as a right-winger, touting his efforts to crack down on crime, “secure” state elections, and “protect” girls’ sports. He’s endorsed by the Cleveland County Sheriff and the NRA. Eason is also running as a conservative, proudly spouting that she’s “anti-new taxes, anti-illegal immigration, and anti-woke.” Hastings has heavily attacked Eason, calling her a front for “notorious leftist leaders in Cherryville.” Which, if you know anything about Cherryville, is a hilarious statement (It backed Trump by nearly 60 points!). Either way, both candidates are running pretty close in fundraising, but I think Hastings pulls out the win here. I think incumbency pulls him over the line, but I could see Eason winning if voters are mad enough at him going back on his retirement.

HD-113 (Polk/southern Henderson/western Rutherford Counties, Trump+31.5) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Jake Johnson is facing off against former State Representative Mike Hager in this deeply Republican district.

Johnson is running as a conservative, touting his pro-life bonafides, his support for the 2nd Amendment, and support for the free-market economy. He’s backed by State House Speaker Destin Hall and several conservative groups. Hager is mostly running on his conservative voting record from when he served in the House a decade ago, also attacking Johnson for failing to pass property tax relief for seniors and for abandoning the district in order to go on “bourbon tours.” He’s backed by conservative activist/former one-term Congressman Allen West. Hager has loaned his campaign nearly $200k, instantly putting him in contention to unseat Johnson. I don’t think it’ll happen though and Johnson’s incumbency will ultimately push him over the finish line.

HD-117 (Northern Henderson County, Trump+12) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Jennifer Capps Balkcom is in one of the most left-trending districts in North Carolina, potentially setting herself up for a competitive November election. She won’t have to worry about getting through the Republican primary though, as her only opponent is a NC Educators on the Ballot candidate in teacher Christopher Lamar Wilson. Wilson doesn’t have a campaign website, but his Facebook page is mostly touting the same pro-public school messages that his fellow teachers have been spouting in other races. He hasn’t raised any money either, so Balkcom should win this easily.

HD-118 (Haywood/Madison Counties, Trump+25) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Mark Pless is trying to fend off a challenge from school board member Jimmy Rogers in this solidly Republican seat in western North Carolina. Pless is running as a conservative, touting his efforts to secure disaster relief after Hurricane Helene, support for the 2nd Amendment, and support for farmers. Rogers seems to only be running on his experience on the school board, which has led Pless to attack him for having no experience in passing laws. Rogers hasn’t raised much money either, so Pless should be the favorite to win.

HD-119 (Jackson/Transylvania/Swain Counties, Trump+13) (R-Held) (GOP PRIMARY):

Republican incumbent Mike Clampitt is trying to fend off two opponents in this solidly Republican district: businesswoman Anna Ferguson and mental health provider Mike Yow. Neither Ferguson nor Yow have raised any money (Yow doesn’t even have a campaign presence online), while Clampitt hasn’t even updated his website since 2020! No one seems to be taking this race seriously, which means that Clampitt probably wins this one easily.

And that’s it for this edition of Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch. I’ll be back tomorrow for the SLEW for Texas! Until then, I’ve been Uncrewed/Chris (you can follow me on Twitter @Uncrewed, same on Bluesky!) and don’t forget to stay awesome!