Uncrewed's Legislative Election Watch- May 16th, 2022
Covering all the important legislative primaries happening in North Carolina!
Hello everybody and welcome to Uncrewed’s Legislative Election Watch! If you’re new here, the Legislative Election Watch is where I cover all the news on legislative elections going on across the country. In this edition, we’re going to the Tar Heel State of North Carolina to go over some of the more interesting State Legislative primaries taking place on Tuesday! Without further ado, let’s get into it!
Starting with the Democratic primaries…
SD-13 (Biden+30, Northern Raleigh):
Two Democrats are running in this newly-created, safely Democratic seat covering most of northern Raleigh: Raleigh City Councilman Patrick Buffkin and disability rights attorney Lisa Grafstein. Buffkin is heavily backed by real estate groups and the NC Chamber of Commerce. Grafstein, on the other hand, is backed by groups like the AFL-CIO and local State Senator Sarah Crawford. This one is going to be close, but I think Buffkin ultimately pulls it out in the end thanks to his electoral experience and fundraising edge.
SD-19 (Biden+10, Southern Fayetteville):
Democratic incumbent Kirk deViere is facing an interesting primary challenge from former Fayetteville City Councilwoman Val Applewhite. deViere has made many North Carolina Democrats (especially Governor Roy Cooper) mad for voting for the Republican budget proposal last year. As a result, Cooper has thrown his weight behind Applewhite. The two are also neck and neck in fundraising, with Applewhite just edging out deViere in that department. I honestly can’t tell you who will win this, it’s pretty much a pure toss-up, made more complicated by the fact that there’s a third candidate on the ballot who hasn’t run much of a campaign (Ed Donaldson).
HD-08 (Biden+16, Northern Greenville Area):
Two Democrats are running for this open seat covering northern Pitt County: Bethel Mayor Gloristine Brown and political aide Sharon McDonald Evans. Brown leads Evans in fundraising, but her home base of Bethel is really small (only 2,000 people). Fun fact, if Evans wins she’d become the only Native American in the State House (she’s Lumbee and current Rep Charles Graham is retiring).
HD-50 (Biden+14, Caswell/Northern Orange Counties):
This open, solidly Democratic district covering most areas north of Chapel Hill features two Democrats running: Orange County Commissioner Renee Price and Hillsborough City Commissioner Matt Hughes. Hughes has been endorsed by groups like Run for Something, while Price has the backing of EMILY’s List and the AFL-CIO. Price should win this, but a Hughes win isn’t out of the realm of possibilities.
HD-56 (Biden+74, Chapel Hill):
Two Democrats are running in this open, safely Democratic district covering all of the college town of Chapel Hill: attorney/former Orange County Democratic Party Chairman Jonah Garrison and former Chapel Hill Town Councilman Allen Buansi. Garrison leads Buansi in fundraising and has endorsements from several local elected officials. Buansi is backed by the AFL-CIO and several Chapel Hill city officials. This is pretty much a pure toss-up, but if I had to guess I’d say Buansi wins this.
HD-112 (Biden+23, Eastern Charlotte):
This newly-created, solidly Democratic district covering the east side of Charlotte features a three-way race for the Democratic nomination. The three Democrats running are: former State Representative Tricia Cotham, US Navy veteran Jay Holman, and doctor Yolonda Holmes. Cotham leads the three in fundraising, while Holmes is backed by the AFL-CIO. I think Cotham should win this thanks to her previous elected experience in this area.
Now onto the Republican side of things!
SD-01 (Trump+23, Eastern North Carolina):
Redistricting has forced two Republican incumbents to face off in this solidly-Republican district covering most of eastern North Carolina. SD-01 State Senator Bob Steinburg and SD-02 State Senator Norman Sanderson are squaring off here and both have run pretty similar campaigns, though Steinburg has bested Sanderson in the fundraising department. Steinburg also has the backing of the Police Benevolent Association, while Sanderson is being backed by State Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler. Like most incumbent vs incumbent primaries, this is probably going to come down to which candidate gets their old base out the best and I think Steinburg has the best chance of doing that thanks to having more of his old Senate district in this new district than Sanderson does.
SD-10 (Trump+24, Johnston County):
This newly-created, safely Republican district covering all of Johnston County features a three way race for the Republican nomination: attorney Benton Sawrey, businesswoman Jill Homan, and architect Matt Ansley. Sawrey leads the pack in fundraising, with Homan close behind and Ansley not raising anything. Sawrey also has endorsements from a few local elected officials, while Homan is being backed by former Trump White House official Richard Grenell. I think Sawrey wins this, but Homan definitely has a shot.
SD-36 (Trump+56, Surry/Wilkes/Yadkin/Alexander Counties):
Four candidates are running in this open, safely-Republican district covering parts of northwestern North Carolina: former State Senator Shirley Randleman, State Representative Lee Zachary, Wilkes County Commissioner Eddie Settle, and retired police officer Vann Tate. Randleman leads the four in fundraising and has endorsements from a few conservative groups. Zachary is close behind Randleman in fundraising, while Settle and Tate lag behind. I think this one honestly goes to a runoff (which would happen if no candidate got over 30%) between Randleman and Zachary, though they both have an opportunity to win this outright on Tuesday.
SD-47 (Trump+28, Western North Carolina):
The other incumbent vs incumbent election in the North Carolina Republican primaries comes in SD-47, a safely Republican district covering parts of western North Carolina. The two Republicans running are SD-45 Senator Deanna Ballard and SD-47 Senator Ralph Hise. Ballard leads Hise in fundraising, but Hise has more of his old district in this new district than Ballard does. Because of that, I think Hise wins this, but Ballard definitely has a chance.
HD-25 (Biden+2, Nash County):
Three candidates are running for the Republican nomination in this Biden+2 seat covering all of Nash County: teacher Yvonne McLeod, police officer Allen Chesser, and activist Alsey Hopkins. McLeod leads the three in fundraising, but Chesser has several key endorsements from Rocky Mount Mayor/NC-01 candidate Sandy Robeson and several conservative groups. I think Chesser will win this, but McLeod has an outside chance. Whoever wins will be in for a tough November election in this district that we at CNalysis currently rate as Tilt R.
HD-52 (Trump+15, Richmond County/Southern Pines):
We have an incumbent vs incumbent primary in this solidly Republican district covering all of Richmond County and southern Moore County. HD-66 Representative Ben Moss will face HD-52 Representative James Boles here. Boles leads Moss in fundraising, but Moss has endorsements from a few conservative activist groups. This will probably come down to which candidate gets their home base out better (Richmond County for Moss and Moore County for Boles). So far in early voting it looks like Moore County is turning out better, so that bodes well for Boles.
HD-54 (Biden+8, Chatham County Area):
Two candidates are running in this Democratic-leaning district covering all of Chatham County and part of Randolph County: former Chatham County Commissioner Walter Petty and businessman Craig Kinsey. Kinsey leads Petty in fundraising, but Petty has several key endorsements (most notably from NC-13 Congressman/US Senate candidate Ted Budd). I think Petty wins this, but he’ll be in for a tough November election bid in this district that we at CNalysis currently rate as Tilt D.
HD-63 (Biden+3, Burlington Area):
Three Republican candidates are running in this competitive district covering the Burlington area: former State Representative Steve Ross, Gays for Trump founder/podcaster Peter Boykin, and conservative activist Ed Priola. Priola leads the three in fundraising, but none have really raised a ton of money. Because of that, I think Ross should win this one mostly thanks to his name recognition (he was State Rep here from 2012-2020).
HD-78 (Trump+48, Southern Randolph/Western Moore Counties):
A three-way race for the Republican nomination has emerged in his open, safely-Republican district covering parts of Randolph & Moore Counties. The three candidates running are: pastor Neal Jackson, graphic designer Cory Bortree, and police officer David Ashley. Jackson leads the three in fundraising and has the backing of Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson. I think Jackson wins this one, but watch out for Bortree, who has the backing of a few conservative activist groups.
HD-109 (Trump+18, Southern Gaston County):
Appointed Republican incumbent Donnie Loftis is facing three challengers: Gaston County Commissioner Ronnie Worley, businessman John Gouch, and activist Lauren Current. Loftis drew a lot of attention when he was first appointed back in November because he was present at the January 6th Capitol Insurrection. According to his own words, he was “gassed” three times and was at the doors of the Capitol when they were breached. He now disavows the rioting that took place that day, but is that enough to avoid being primaried? Loftis currently trails Gouch and Worley in fundraising too, so that can’t help him. Overall, I think this one goes to a runoff between Loftis and Worley, though Gouch can definitely take that second spot from Worley.
HD-113 (Trump+32, Polk/Western Rutherford Counties):
The final incumbent vs incumbent primary of the year in North Carolina will take place in HD-113, a solidly Republican district covering Polk and Rutherford counties, between HD-113 Representative Jake Johnson and HD-112 Representative David Rogers. Johnson has heavily out-raised Rogers in the fundraising department and has more of his old district in the new district. Because of that, I think Johnson wins this easily.
That’s all for this edition of Uncrewed’s Legislative Election Watch! I’ll be back tomorrow to cover all the important legislative primaries in Pennsylvania! Until then, stay excellent!