Uncrewed's Legislative Election Watch- November 8th, 2021
Hello everybody and welcome to Uncrewed’s Legislative Election Watch! If you’re new here, the Legislative Election Watch is where I cover all the news on legislative elections and redistricting going on across the country. In today’s edition, I’ll be going over all the major results from last week’s Virginia House of Delegates elections, all the special elections that took place on Tuesday, and preview the special elections coming up on Saturday. Let’s get into it!
VIRGINIA ELECTION RECAP:
To put it bluntly, last Tuesday was a bad night for the Democrats. A prime example of that came in the House of Delegates, where the Democrats went from having a 56-44 majority to being in a 52-48 minority. Let’s go over some of the more important races:
HD-10 (Clarke County/Leesburg area, Biden+15): Democratic incumbent Wendy Gooditis looked to be in trouble against her Republican opponent, Leesburg Town Planning Commissioner Nick Clemente. Clemente was a really good fundraiser and the district is more Republican down-ballot (Governor Ralph Northam only won it by 9 in 2017), but Gooditis pulled it out in the end. She ended up defeating Clemente 51-49, a bright spot on a bad night for Virginia Democrats.
HD-12 (Radford/Blacksburg area, Biden+5): Democratic incumbent Chris Hurst looked to be the most endangered Democrat in the entire state and that certainly proved true on Tuesday. Hurst was in hot water for driving under the influence back in 2020 and being caught driving with a suspended license and stealing his opponent’s campaign signs just a few days before the election. That, combined with Glenn Youngkin’s big overperformance in the area, led Hurst’s Republican opponent (Pearisburg Town Councilman Jason Ballard), to easily defeat Hurst by nearly 11 points (55.3-44.7).
HD-21 (Western Virginia Beach, Biden+12): Democratic incumbent Kelly Convirs-Fowler faced Republican nonprofit executive Tanya Gould in one of the closest elections in the entire state. Fowler, who won re-election in 2019 by nearly 10 points, only defeated Gould by 1% (50.6-49.4), despite doubling Gould’s fundraising efforts.
HD-27 (Central Chesterfield County, Biden+8): In a rare competitive GOP seat, Republican incumbent Roxann Robinson turned back a stiff challenge from Democratic attorney Debra Gardner. Robinson defeated Gardner by almost four points (51.8-48.2). That’s actually an improvement from 2019 for Robinson, who only won by 100 votes in 2019!
HD-28 (Eastern Stafford County, Biden+10): Democratic incumbent Joshua Cole, who became the first Democrat to represent the district in nearly 40 years when he won in 2019, lost his exurban NoVA seat to Republican teacher Tara Durant. Durant defeated Cole by two points (51-49), despite Cole doubling Durant in the fundraising department.
HD-31 (Southern Prince William County area, Biden+15): After a failed run for Lieutenant Governor, Democratic incumbent Elizabeth Guzman ran for re-election in her swingy PWC district. Guzman defeated Republican Marine Veteran Ben Baldwin by a little over four points (52.1-47.9), a slight underperformance from her five point win in 2019.
HD-40 (Southern Fairfax County, Biden+25): Democratic incumbent Dan Helmer (who you may remember from singing at a Barbara Comstock look-alike in 2017: https://www.thedailybeast.com/dan-helmer-congress-ad-top-gun-terrible-watch-video) faced a tough bid for re-election in this ancestrally Republican seat in the DC suburbs. Helmer ended up winning in the end by five points, defeating his Republican opponent (Harold Pyon) by five points (52.7-47.3). Pyon came under fire during the campaign for handing out some anti-Semitic mailers against Helmer, which may have contributed to his loss (https://www.wusa9.com/article/features/producers-picks/virginia-democratic-delegate-dan-helmer-slams-republican-mailer-as-anti-semitic-harold-pyon/65-16c2ce95-80a2-40c3-9dfa-f72d2437c019).
HD-63 (Dinwiddie/Petersburg area, Biden+10): In an upset, Democratic incumbent Lashrecse Aird was unseated by Republican businesswoman Kim Taylor. Taylor defeated Aird by a little under two points (50.8-49.2), becoming the first Republican to represent Petersburg in the House of Delegates in over 130 years.
HD-66 (Colonial Heights area, Biden+10): Republican incumbent/former State House speaker Kirk Cox decided to retire, leaving a district ripe for a Democratic pickup. However, Republican Colonial Heights City Councilman Mike Cherry kept the seat for his party, defeating Democratic Air Force veteran Katie Sponsler by a little under five points (52.4-47.6).
HD-75 (Southeastern Virginia, Biden+7): After coming up short against Democratic incumbent Roslyn Tyler in 2019, Republican pharmacist Otto Wachsmann defeated her this time around by over five points. Wachsmann defeated Tyler by a margin of 52.6-47.4, becoming the first Republican to represent this southside district in over 100 years.
HD-83 (Northwestern Virginia Beach, Biden+15): After scoring an upset win over a political dynasty in 2019, Democratic incumbent Nancy Guy fell in her bid for a second term against Republican attorney Tim Anderson. Anderson, who dodged accusations of impersonating a judge to harass his staff at his law office, defeated Guy by a little over two points (51.2-48.8) to flip this seat back to the Republicans.
HD-85 (Central Virginia Beach, Biden+12): Democratic incumbent Alex Askew was unseated by Republican businesswoman Karen Greenhalgh in his bid for a second term. Greenhalgh defeated Askew by just over 100 votes (50.2-49.8) to bring this swingy district back into the Republican column.
HD-91 (Poqouson/Eastern Hampton, Biden+8): In one of the night’s biggest upsets, Democratic incumbent Martha Mugler lost her seat to Republican National Guard veteran A.C. Cardoza. Cardoza defeated Mugler by just under 100 votes (49.4-49.1, with 1.5% going to a Libertarian), despite only spending $40,000 on the race. Cardoza’s win brings the seat back into Republican hands, just two years after they lost it to Mugler.
HD-93 (Williamsburg area, Biden+16): Democratic incumbent Mike Mullin survived a closer-than-expected race against Republican teacher Jordan Gray. Mullin defeated Gray by a little over three points (51.6-48.4), an eight point slide from his 11 point win in 2019.
In conclusion, not a good night to be a Virginia Democrat. Now the Virginia GOP controls the Governorship, both row offices, and the House of Delegates. The only thing the Democrats have is the Senate and even there they only have a 21-19 majority, meaning only one Democrat could defect or join the GOP for a vote and Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears can break the tie.
NOVEMBER 2ND SPECIAL ELECTIONS RECAP:
We didn’t have a ton of special legislative elections on November 2nd, with fewer being notable. The special elections mostly followed the same trend we’ve been seeing the whole year, legislative Democrats underperforming President Biden’s 2020 numbers by a few points. We did have one flip on Tuesday though, that came from Maine’s 86th House district. This Biden+10 district in eastern Augusta became open when Republican incumbent Justin Fecteau decided to resign in June for work reasons. The Democrats nominated Augusta City Councilwoman Raegan LaRochelle, while the Republicans nominated Army veteran James Orr. In the end, LaRochelle beat Orr by a little over 12 points, flipping the seat to the Democrats for the first time in over a decade. Maine and its neighboring state of New Hampshire have been weirdly friendly towards the Democrats in their special elections this year, we’ll see if that trend continues going into 2022…
NOVEMBER 13TH SPECIAL ELECTIONS PREVIEW:
We have three special elections on tap for Saturday, all coming from Louisiana. First off is SD-27, a Trump+16 district in the Lake Charles area. It became open when Republican Senator Ronnie Johns resigned in order to become the chair of the Louisiana State Gaming Control Board. Two Republicans and a Democrat are running: businessman Jeremy Stine, teacher Jake Shaheen (both Republicans) and businessman Ronnie Johns (a Democrat). If no candidate gets over 50%, the top two will advance to a December 11th runoff.
Next up is HD-16, a Biden+38 district that stretches from Monroe to Bastrop. Democratic incumbent Frederick Jones resigned in order to become a judge, leading to this election. Three candidates are running, all Democrats: pastor Charles Bradford, teacher Alicia Calvin, and businessman Adrian Fisher. Fun fact, both Bradford and Calvin ran for this seat in 2019, but both lost to Jones. Again, if nobody gets over 50%, a runoff between the top two candidates will take place on December 11th.
Finally we have HD-102, a Biden+60 district in southeastern New Orleans. Democratic incumbent Gary Carter vacated the seat in order to become a State Senator. Two candidates are running, both Democrats: real estate broker Delisha Boyd and activist Jordan Bridges.
That’s all for this week’s edition of Uncrewed’s Legislative Election Watch! I’ll be back next Monday to go over the New Jersey elections (hopefully they finish counting by then!) and preview the remaining special elections in November. Until then, stay excellent!