Uncrewed's Legislative Election Watch- February 28th, 2022
Covering all the important Republican legislative primaries taking place in Texas tomorrow!
Hello everybody and welcome to Uncrewed’s Legislative Election Watch! If you’re new here, the Legislative Election Watch is where I cover all the news on legislative elections going on across the country. In this edition, we’re going deep in the heart of Texas going over some of the more interesting State Legislative primaries taking place on Tuesday! We’ll be covering the Republican primaries in this edition, so without further ado, let’s get into it!
SD-11 (Pearland/Galveston Area, Trump+11):
Republican Senator Larry Taylor decided to retire rather than seek a third term in the Senate in this seat south of Houston, leading four candidates to run here: State Representative Mayes Middleton, doctor Robin Armstrong, businessman Bob Mitchell, and Latinos for Trump Director Bianca Gracia. Middleton leads the pack in fundraising and has the backing of former President Trump. Armstrong’s right behind Middleton in fundraising, but he doesn’t really have that many endorsements. Mitchell has the backing of several local mayors and The Houston Chronicle. Finally, Gracia is backed by some of the more fringe Trump associates in Roger Stone and Michael Flynn. Middleton should win this, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he got forced into a runoff with Armstrong (who’s attracted attention in conservative circles for going on Fox News and hyping up the now-discredited hydroxychloroquine treatment for COVID-19).
SD-24 (Atascosa County to Bell County, Trump+19):
The Texas GOP created this district covering areas south of San Antonio and central Texas in what some saw as an attempt to bring back recently-defeated State Senator Pete Flores. Low and behold, he’s running again. However, he’s also joined by two other candidates: US Air Force Veteran/2020 TX-23 candidate Raul Reyes & political aide Lamar Lewis. Most of the Republican establishment has lined up behind Flores (including Senator John Cornyn & former President Trump), who also leads the three in fundraising. Reyes and Lewis lag behind Flores in that department, so it wouldn’t really surprise me if Flores just wins outright tomorrow.
SD-27 (Brownsville to Bee County, Biden+5):
Three candidates are running in this open southwest Texas district: former State Representative Raul Torres, businessman Adam Hinojosa, and conservative activist Israel Salinas. Hinojosa leads the three in fundraising and endorsements, having been endorsed by several local elected officials and a few State Representatives. However, Torres may have name recognition from representing the region from 2011-2013 in the House and having run for State Senate in 2012. Salinas has struggled to find momentum and the only reason he’s being mentioned is his potential to take enough votes to force a runoff between Hinojosa and Torres. Whoever wins the primary will be in for a tough election in November in this district that CNalysis rates as Tilt D.
HD-14 (Bryan/College Station, Trump+10):
Republican incumbent John Raney is facing an interesting challenge in this College Station district from oil & gas businessman John Harvey Slocum. Some college football fans may recognize that last name, as Slocum’s dad (R.C. Slocum) was head coach at Texas A&M from 1989-2002. Slocum’s leaning heavily into that background, heavily featuring the university in his advertisements. However, he’s been lagging behind Raney in the fundraising department, which might be enough to give Raney the win tomorrow.
HD-17 (Milam County to Caldwell County, Trump+27):
Republican incumbent John Cyrier decided not to seek re-election to this solidly Republican district, setting up a big primary field to replace him. Five candidates are running: Smithville City Councilman Stan Gerdes, Bastrop County Judge Paul Pape, conservative activist Tom Glass, businesswoman Jen Bezner, and US Marine Corps Veteran Trey Rutledge. Gerdes and Pape have led the pack in fundraising, far out-pacing the other three candidates. However, I really doubt either of them get over 50%, necessitating a runoff in this conservative district.
HD-19 (Burnet County to Kendall County, Trump+39):
Republican Representative Kyle Biedermann decided to retire rather than seek another term in this solidly Republican district covering most of Texas hill country. Four candidates are running to replace Biedermann: former Austin City Councilwoman Ellen Troxclair, police officer Justin Berry, political aide Nubia Devine, and US Air Force Veteran Perla Hopkins. Troxclair leads the four in fundraising and has key endorsements from Congressmen like Chip Roy & Roger Williams. Berry’s been backed by several police organizations and Devine has the endorsement of outgoing Representative Kyle Biedermann. Berry made some news recently for being indicted for excessive force during the 2020 Black Lives Matter protests. I would say that would disqualify him from winning this primary, but you never know. Troxclair is definitely the favorite for now though.
HD-23 (Galveston, Trump+22):
With State Representative Mayes Middleton running for State Senate, four candidates are running to replace him in this solidly Republican seat: doctor Abel Longoria, attorney Patrick Gurski, doctor Gina Smith, and former State Board of Education Member Terri Leo-Wilson. Longoria leads the four in fundraising, but all of them have posted similar numbers. This probably goes to a runoff, but any two of these four can reasonably make it.
HD-31 (Starr County to Wilson County, Trump+25):
Democratic State Representative Ryan Guillen was already in for a tough re-election battle in his original Trump+13 district that trended hard to the right from 2016 -> 2020, but redistricting made it even harder. Realizing the writing on the wall for his chances of winning in a Trump+25 district, Guillen decided to switch parties and join the Republicans. However, he’s facing two challengers in his first GOP primary: businessman Mike Monreal and school board trustee Alena Berlanga. Guillen is backed by former President Trump, Governor Greg Abbott, and House Speaker Dade Phelan. This should mean he’s the favorite, but early turnout from his home area hasn’t been amazing for the Republicans. He’s going to need to get votes from the more traditionally conservative northern part of his district if he needs to win.
HD-37 (Willacy/Northern Cameron Counties, Biden+2):
This new-Biden+2 district in southwest Texas is an intriguing pickup opportunity for the Republicans. They have two candidates running here: school board trustee Janie Lopez and Palm Valley Mayor George Rivera. Lopez easily leads Rivera in both fundraising and endorsements and should be the favorite in tomorrow’s primary. Whoever wins will be in for a tough November election in this district that CNalysis rates as a Tossup.
HD-52 (Eastern Williamson County, Trump+5):
Texas Republicans drew Democratic Representative James Talarico into a more Republican district during redistricting, shifting his Williamson County-based district from Biden+10 to Trump+5. Talarico decided to bolt to Austin to run in an open seat there instead of defending this seat, leaving it prime for a Republican flip. Four Republicans are running to do so: attorney Nelson Jarrin, businessman Patrick McGuinness, political aide Caroline Harris, and businessman Jonathan Schober. Jarrin leads the four in fundraising and has endorsements from several local elected officials and groups like the Texas Farm Bureau. McGuinness is right behind Jarrin in fundraising, but his endorsement game leaves a lot to be desired. Harris lags behind the two in fundraising, but has an endorsement from State Senator Bryan Hughes. I honestly see this one going to a runoff, but Jarrin might be able to win outright (or at the very least secure himself a spot in the runoff).
HD-57 (Central Denton County, Trump+12):
This new district in the northern Fort Worth suburbs features three candidates running: attorney Richard Hayes, businessman Matthew Haines, and Ponder Mayor Matthew Poole. Hayes leads the three in fundraising, with Haines close behind and Poole not really raising that much. Whoever wins this primary will be a solid favorite to win in November in this pretty Republican (albeit left-trending) district.
HD-61 (Northern Collin County, Trump+8):
Three candidates are running in this newly created district in the northern Dallas suburbs: former McKinney City Councilman Frederick Frazier, US Navy veteran Paul Chabot, and businessman Jim Herblin. Frazier leads the three in fundraising and has the backing of former President Trump. Chabot has raised some decent money and has a few endorsements from some of the more conservative State Representatives in the legislature. Funny thing about Chabot, he actually ran for California’s 31st Congressional District in 2014 & 2016. That might explain why he has former California gubernatorial recall election candidate Larry Elder backing him. Anyway, Frazier should be able to win this, the only real question being whether this goes to a runoff or not.
HD-62 (Grayson/Fannin/Delta Counties, Trump+54):
Republican incumbent Reggie Smith is facing a somewhat familiar name in his bid for a third term in this solidly Republican district. Smith is facing conservative activist Shelley Luther. You may recognize Luther from her defying Texas’s stay-at-home order at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic and keeping her salon open. That earned her praise from the arch-conservative wing of the Republican Party (including US Senator Ted Cruz) and earned her the ire of Governor Greg Abbott (who is backing Smith here). Smith leads Luther in the fundraising department and has a lot of endorsements from local elected officials. He should win here, but who knows, maybe Luther can attract enough of the arch-conservative vote to win.
HD-63 (Southern Denton County, Trump+6):
Republican incumbent Tan Parker decided to run for State Senate rather than seek another term in this district in southern Denton County. Four Republicans are running to replace him: Flower Mound City Councilman Ben Bumgardner, conservative activist Jeff Younger, former Trophy Club Mayor Nick Sanders, and businessman Jake Collier. Bumgardner leads the four in the fundraising department, while Sanders lags behind, but has some key endorsements from local elected officials and the Dallas Morning News. And then there’s Jeff Younger. If you pay attention to transgender issues in the news you may recognize that name. He became big in the news in 2019 when he and his wife got into a big legal battle over his seven year-old daughter’s gender transition. Despite numerous doctors, school staff, and family members affirming that his daughter was knowing what she was doing and was completely fine with it, Younger still sued and his wife got death threats because of that. Since then he’s become a bit of a martyr in the anti-trans community and has pretty much based his entire campaign on being anti-trans. He’s also got a bit of a shady past. Between first launching his lawsuit and a verdict coming down (against Younger), he made over $100,000 from anti-trans conservatives. He also has a bit of history of just general aggressiveness towards his other daughters (if you want to read more about Younger, Vox has a good article here: https://www.vox.com/identities/2019/11/11/20955059/luna-younger-transgender-child-custody). For the sake of not just the trans community in Texas, but for the good of humanity, I hope Younger loses and by a lot. Rant aside, Bumgardner should win this, whether outright tomorrow or in a runoff in May.
HD-70 (Plano, Biden+11):
This newly-created district covering most of the city of Plano was meant to act as a sort of Democratic vote sink, but it’s still a bit Republican downballot (Trump carried it in 2016 and Greg Abbott won it by 7 in 2018). As such, five Republicans are running: US Army veteran Eric Bowlin, Plano Chamber of Commerce President Jamee Jolly, conservative activist Hayden Padgett, businessman LaDale Buggs, and Daniel Chandler. Bowlin leads the pack when it comes to money and has endorsements from a few local elected officials and former Congressman Allen West. Jolly is close behind Bowlin in fundraising and has endorsements from several local officials (including the Mayor of Plano). Padgett lags behind the top two in fundraising, but has the endorsements of several Plano City Councilpeople. This one probably goes to a runoff and if I had to guess between who, I’d say it’d be between Bowlin and Jolly.
HD-73 (Comal/Western Hays Counties, Trump+37):
Three candidates are running in this newly-created district covering most of the Republican areas along I-35 between Austin and San Antonio: former New Braunfels Mayor Barron Casteel, nonprofit director Carrie Isaac, and former New Braunfels City Councilman George Green. Casteel leads the three in fundraising and has endorsements from most Comal County elected officials and even a decent amount of Hays County elected officials. Isaac is right behind Casteel in fundraising and has endorsements from several State Representatives. Casteel should win this, but there’s a potential for this to go to a runoff if Green siphons enough Comal County votes from Casteel and Isaac does well in her base of Hays County.
HD-84 (Lubbock, Trump+17):
Four candidates are running to replace retiring State Representative John Frullo in this solidly Republican seat covering most of Lubbock: US Marine Corps veteran David Glasheen, businessman Carl Tepper, businessman Kade Wilcox, and conservative activist Cheryl Little. Glasheen and Tepper lead the pack in fundraising, with Wilcox slightly behind and Little raising almost no money. This one probably goes to a runoff between Tepper and Glasheen with an outside shot of Wilcox making it.
HD-91 (Northern Fort Worth Suburbs, Trump+20):
Republican incumbent Stephanie Klick is facing four challengers from her right: US Army veteran David Lowe, political aide Anthony Reed, Texas Rangers team employee David Silvey, and Texas National Guard veteran Benjamin Damico. It’s hard to tell why Klick is getting so many primary challengers, the only thing I can think of is her stance on transgender issues (she refused to bring up a bill that would have banned children from beginning a gender transition, nothing surgical, just puberty blockers). In fact, Lowe is endorsed by that Jeff Younger guy that I talked about earlier and both Lowe and Silvey have made transgender issues major keystones in their campaigns. Klick is taking these challenges seriously though, as she’s gotten endorsements from Governor Greg Abbott, former Governor Rick Perry, and Fort Worth Mayor Mattie Parker. Lowe’s mostly been endorsed by arch-conservative activists. This one probably goes to a runoff between Klick and one of her opponents (Lowe or Reed if I had to guess), but Klick should probably win that.
HD-93 (Northern Tarrant County, Trump+14):
Republican incumbent Matt Krause decided to run for Tarrant County Attorney (after initially running for State Attorney General), so three candidates are running to replace him: former Southlake Mayor Laura Hill, Fort Worth City Councilman Cary Moon, and pastor Nate Schatzline. Hill leads the three in fundraising, with Moon and Schatzline close behind. Hill’s become a bit of a conservative folk hero recently for being one of the leading proponents in banning “critical race theory” in the city. She’s obviously the frontrunner here, a notion that’s helped by Moon coming under fire for a DUI arrest back in 2020 that recently emerged. Hill should win here, either outright tomorrow or in a runoff.
HD-122 (Northwestern Bexar County, Trump+9):
Four candidates are running to replace retiring Republican incumbent Lyle Larson in this seat covering northwestern Bexar County: businessman Adam Blanchard, former Bexar County GOP Chairman Mark Dorazio, former San Antonio City Councilwoman Elisa Chan, and US Air Force Veteran Mark Cuthbert. Blanchard’s been endorsed by outgoing Representative Larson and former Congressman Henry Bonilla. Dorazio has been endorsed by former Governor Rick Perry and US Senator Ted Cruz. This has become a bit of an interesting race between two factions of the Republican Party. The more moderate wing is backing Blanchard, who isn’t really running on any culture war issues, mostly economic and immigration issues. Dorazio, on the other hand, is backed by the more conservative wing of the party and prominently features his positions on Critical Race Theory and election integrity on his website. This one probably goes to a runoff between Blanchard and Dorazio, but it’s anybody’s guess on who wins that.
HD-133 (Hunters Creek Village Area, Trump+2):
House Majority Leader Jim Murphy decided to retire from this left-trending district in suburban Houston, leading five candidates to run to replace him: former Houston City Councilman Greg Travis, businesswoman Shelley Barineau, former Houston City Councilman Bert Keller, attorney Mano DeAyala, and businessman Will Franklin. Barineau has been endorsed by former US Secretary of State James Baker and US Senator Rand Paul. DeAyala has been endorsed by the Houston Chronicle and the Houston Region Business Coalition. Travis should be the frontrunner here, but he’s recently come under fire for cutting down one of Shelley Barineau’s campaign signs. As such, I think this one will go to a runoff between Travis and Barineau.
That’s all for this edition of Uncrewed’s Legislative Election Watch! I’ll be back in May to go over the Indiana and (hopefully depending on how litigation turns out) Ohio primaries. But until then, stay excellent!