Uncrewed's Legislative Election Watch- February 25th, 2022

Covering all the important Democratic primaries in Texas this Tuesday!

Hello everybody and welcome to Uncrewed’s Legislative Election Watch! If you’re new here, the Legislative Election Watch is where I cover all the news on legislative elections going on across the country. In this edition, we’re going deep in the heart of Texas going over some of the more interesting State Legislative primaries taking place on Tuesday! We’ll be covering the Democratic primaries here, but look out for one on the Republican primaries on Monday. Without further ado, let’s get into it!

SD-15 (Northern/Western Houston, Biden+31):

Longtime Democratic State Senator John Whitmire is facing a challenge from his left in Democratic nurse Molly Cook. Cook, who’s been endorsed by the Houston DSA and the Working Families Party, actually raised more money than Whitmire in the most recent fundraising period as well (though Whitmire might not have needed that much money considering he has over $11 million on hand!). Whitmire has also set his eyes on the Houston Mayoral office in 2023, so there could be some backlash from voters who want him to focus more on his current job than his potential job here. He should win, but if there was one race to watch in Texas to see if progressive Democrats can unseat moderate incumbents, this is probably the one to watch.

SD-27 (Brownsville to Bee County, Biden+5):

Longtime conservative Democratic Senator Eddie Lucio Jr. announced his retirement in November of last year, which set off a pretty fierce race to replace him. Compounding that retirement was the Texas Republican Party’s redistricting here, which shifted this district from Biden+16 to Biden+5. Four Democrats are running to replace Lucio: State Representative Alex Dominguez, attorney Sara Stapleton-Barrera (who almost defeated Lucio in the primary in 2020), attorney Morgan LaMantia, and businessman Salomon Torres. In a bit of a surprising move, instead of endorsing their colleague, most of Rio Grande Valley Democratic State Representatives actually endorsed LaMantia, though those endorsements might have something to do with the fact that LaMantia’s family has given all of the State Representatives that have endorsed her a pretty substantial amount of money in recent years. Speaking of money, LaMantia leads that department, with Dominguez, Stapleton-Barrera, and Torres all trailing far behind her. Decent chance this goes to a runoff in May, just judging based on how many candidates are running. Whoever wins that will be in for a very tough November election in a district CNalysis currently rates as Tilt D.

HD-22 (Beaumont/Port Arthur, Biden+20.5):

Longtime Democratic Representative Joe Deshotel announced his retirement from this solidly Democratic seat back in November, setting off a wide open race to replace him. Three Democrats are running: Deshotel’s Chief of Staff Christian Manuel Hayes, former Jefferson County Democratic Party Chairman Joseph Paul Trahan, and teacher Lisa Weber. Hayes leads the pack in fundraising, but Trahan has several key endorsements, including from Congressman Al Green (D, TX-09) and former Congressman Nick Lampson.

HD-37 (Willacy/Northern Cameron Counties, Biden+2):

Texas Republicans created this swingy district late in the redistricting cycle and it has attracted serious attention from both parties. Three Democrats are running here: Texas State Board of Education Member Ruben Cortez, businessman Luis Villarrreal, and Harlingen City Commissioner Frank Puente. Cortez leads the candidates in the fundraising department and has endorsements from several other State Representatives and local officials, while Villarreal has been raising a surprising amount of money, and Puente hasn’t really gained much momentum. Whoever wins this race will be in for a tough November election in a district CNalysis currently rates as a Toss-Up.

HD-38 (Brownsville, Biden+25):

With incumbent Democratic Representative Alex Dominguez running for State Senate, this solidly Democratic seat in Brownsville became wide open. Two Democrats are running: attorneys Erin Gamez and Jonathan Gracia. Gamez has a small lead on Gracia in the money department and has endorsements from groups like the Texas AFL-CIO and Texas branch of the American Federation of Teachers. Gracia has endorsements from groups like the Texas Association of Business. Whoever wins this race is pretty much guaranteed to be the next State Representative for this district as no Republican filed to run in November.

HD-51 (Southeastern Austin, Biden+66):

Democratic incumbent Eddie Rodriguez decided to run for Congress instead of re-election here, which set off a bit of a mess of a primary field. Seven Democrats are running to replace Rodriguez: attorney Lulu Flores, teacher Matt Worthington, political aide Cynthia Valadez-Mata, police officer Bino Cardenas, realtor Claire Campos-O’Neal, activist Cody Arn, and activist Mike Hendirx. Flores and Worthington have led the pack in the fundraising department, but given the sheer amount of candidates running, there’s a decent chance this will go to a runoff in May.

HD-70 (Plano, Biden+11):

This newly created district in the northern Dallas suburbs was created to act as a Democratic vote sink, leading three Democrats to run: attorney Cassandra Garcia Hernandez, activist Mihaela Plesa, and real estate agent Lorenzo Sanchez. Hernandez leads the three in fundraising and has several endorsements from Dallas-area State Representatives and the National Latino Law Enforcement Organization. Plesa lags behind Hernandez in the fundraising department, but has endorsements from local Collin County Democratic officials and the Texas State Employees Union. Finally, Sanchez lags behind both Hernandez & Plesa when it comes to money, but has endorsements from the Dallas Morning News and the Latino Victory Fund. Honestly any candidate can win this, but I see this going to a runoff in May.

HD-76 (Sugar Land, Biden+23):

Another new district comes in Sugar Land in the heart of Fort Bend County. Four Democrats are running in this solidly Democratic district: doctor Suleman Lalani, activist James Burnett, businesswoman Sarah DeMerchant, and businesswoman Vanesia Johnson. Lalani leads the four when it comes to fundraising and has endorsements from several local officials and groups like the Fort Bend Tejano Democrats and the Texas Coalition of Black Democrats. Burnett trails Lalani in the fundraising department, but has endorsements from the Fort Bend Young Democrats and the Houston LGBTQ+ Political Caucus. DeMerchant seems to be riding on name recognition from her failed 2020 run in a more competitive district, while Johnson hasn’t really gained that much momentum.

HD-79 (Eastern El Paso, Biden+36):

This solidly Democratic seat covering eastern El Paso features two incumbents squaring off: second-term State Representative Art Fierro and freshman State Representative Claudia Ordaz Perez. Perez has hit Fierro hard over his abandonment of the quorum breakers who left Texas last year in protest of SB1, while Fierro has tried to sue to get Perez off the ballot because of residency issues (which the court ultimately threw out). Fierro has also earned endorsements from a few fellow El Paso State Representatives, but Perez has a big lead in the fundraising department. Whoever wins this race will almost certainly win in November as no Republican filed to run. 

HD-92 (Eastern Tarrant County, Biden+24):

In order to offset the massive Democratic swings in Tarrant County, the Texas Republicans changed this once-swingy Trump+0.2 district into a Biden+24 district! That also forced a State Representative who’s been a thorn in the side of House leadership (Jeff Cason) to retire, so that might have also had something to do with the district being redrawn. Anyway, three Democrats are running here: former Euless City Councilman Salman Bhojani, businesswoman Tracy Scott, and engineer Dinesh Sharma. Bhojani leads the three in fundraising and has endorsements from groups like the AFL-CIO and the Dallas Morning News and people like former State Senator Wendy Davis, 2020 TX-24 Democrat Candace Valenzuela, and even the Republican Mayor of Arlington Jim Ross. Scott’s close behind Bhojani in the fundraising department and has endorsements from several elected officials, most notably State Senator Royce West. Finally, Sharma hasn’t really attracted enough attention, but may get enough of the vote to force a May runoff between Bhojani and Scott.

HD-100 (Central Dallas, Biden+69):

With incumbent Democrat Jasmine Crockett running for Congress, four Democrats are running to replace her in this solidly Democratic seat: political aide Daniel Davis Clayton, nonprofit executive Venton Jones, teacher Marquis Hawkins, and perennial candidate Sandra Crenshaw. Clayton has endorsements from people like State Senator Royce West, while Jones has the endorsement of the State Representative who preceded Crockett, Lorraine Birabil. 

HD-114 (North-Central Dallas, Biden+38):

Second-term Democratic State Representative John Turner decided to retire instead of seeking re-election to this solidly Democratic seat, setting off a big race to replace him. Five Democrats are running: attorney Charlie Gearing, Dallas Civil Service Board Member Kendall Scudder, attorney Alexandra Guio, former Congressman John Bryant, and nonprofit executive Chris Leal. Gearing’s been endorsed by former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk and former State Senator Wendy Davis, Scudder’s mostly been endorsed by local Democratic organizations, Guio’s been endorsed by a decent amount of the Dallas State House delegation, Bryant’s been endorsed by several Dallas City Councilpeople, and Leal’s been endorsed by the AFL-CIO & the Dallas Morning News. All five have pretty decent fundraising numbers as well, so I feel like any one of these five can win it. Which means we’re almost certainly going to a runoff in May.

HD-124 (Western San Antonio, Biden+36):

Democratic incumbent Ina Minjarez decided to run for a judicial position instead of another term, so three Democrats are running to replace her: activist Josey Garcia, attorney Steven Gilmore, and local school district trustee Gerald Lopez. Garcia leads the three in fundraising, but Lopez has been leading with endorsements, having the endorsements of several San Antonio-area legislators.

HD-142 (Northeastern Houston, Biden+49):

Not many incumbent Democrats are facing serious primary challenges, but State Representative Harold Dutton is an exception to that. Dutton, who has served since 1984, is facing a primary challenge from teacher Candis Houston. Dutton has been heavily targeted for joining Republicans in key votes in recent years. Most recently in 2021, when he revived a bill that would ban transgender kids from participating in sports teams that aligned with their gender identity. The bill died, but Dutton made a lot of his colleagues mad in the process. He was already not on the greatest terms with them (considering he almost lost a primary in 2020), but this made it even worse. Since then, plenty of groups have lined up behind Houston, most notably Planned Parenthood and the AFL-CIO. However, Dutton leads Houston in fundraising and has the endorsement of the Houston Chronicle.

HD-147 (South-Central Houston, Biden+57):

Longtime State Representative Garnet Coleman decided to retire from this solidly Democratic district, setting off a bit of a mess of a primary. Seven Democrats are running to replace Coleman: attorney/former Houston City Councilwoman Jolanda Jones, teacher Namrata Subramanian, teacher Reagan Flowers, realtor Danielle Keys Bess, teacher Aurelia Wagner, community organizer Akwete Hines, and political aide Somtoo Ik-Ejiofor. Jones (who you may remember from appearing on Survivor: Palau) has endorsements from State Senator Royce West and former Craig Washington and leads the pack in fundraising. Subramanian has been endorsed by Our Revolution and former Congressional Candidate Sri Preston Kulkarni. Flowers has been endorsed by several local elected officials and the Houston Police Union. Bess has been endorsed by the Houston Chronicle. Finally, Wagner has been endorsed by Our Revolution and a few local school board members. Just based on the amount of candidates, there’s a near guarantee this goes to a runoff in May.

That’s all for this edition of Uncrewed’s Legislative Election Watch! Join me again on Monday when I cover the interesting Republican legislative primaries. Until then, stay excellent!