Uncrewed's Legislative Election Watch- June 1th, 2021
Hello everybody and welcome to Uncrewed’s Legislative Election Watch! If you’re new here, the Legislative Election Watch is where I cover all the news on legislative elections going on across the country. In this edition, I’ll be going over all the primary results from Virginia and New Jersey last Tuesday and over a few special election results that have taken place so far in June. Let’s get to it!
VIRGINIA PRIMARY RESULTS:
We had a ton of primaries in Virginia on Tuesday, so we’re only going to go over the major ones (major incumbent primaries and primaries for nominations in competitive districts), alright? Let’s do it:
HD-09 Republican Primary: Incumbent Delegate Charles Poindexter lost by a surprisingly big margin to his conservative opponent, attorney Wren Williams. Williams beat Poindexter by over 25 points (62.8-37.2) and should be a shoo-in to win this Trump+45 district in November.
HD-31 Democratic Primary: After dropping out of the Lieutenant Governor primary, incumbent Delegate Elizabeth Guzman fended off three primary challengers in her Biden+15 district in Prince William County. Guzman defeated her closest opponent, Rod Hall, by nearly 18 points to secure the Democratic nomination in a district CNalysis rates as Likely Democratic. On top of all that, Guzman still got 4% in the LG primary, almost finishing ahead of a few candidates who stayed in the race.
HD-45 Democratic Primary: Incumbent Delegate Mark Levine easily lost his primary against Alexandria Vice Mayor Elizabeth Bennett-Parker. Bennett-Parker ended up defeating Levine by a little over 18 points (59.2-40.8) and should easily win in November in this Biden+59 district. On top of that, Levine didn’t even win the Lieutenant Governor primary he was also running in, coming in third and only winning his home of Alexandria.
HD-50 Democratic Primary: Incumbent Delegate Lee Carter lost his bid for a third term in a bit of an upset against businesswoman Michelle Maldonado. Maldonado defeated Carter and a third opponent (Helen Zurita) by about six points (44.1% for Maldonado, 38.4% for Carter, and 17.5% for Zurita). Carter also lost his bid for Governor and announced on Twitter later on in the night that his time in politics was pretty much over. Maldonado now goes into a November race that CNalysis currently rates as Very Likely Democratic.
HD-66 Democratic Primary: US Air Force Veteran Katie Sponsler defeated teacher Linnard Harris to secure the Democratic nomination in this Biden+10 district currently held by former Republican House Speaker Kirk Cox. Sponsler beat Harris by about 19 points (59.7-40.3) and will now go on to face GOP Colonial Heights City Councilman Mike Cherry in a race CNalysis currently rates as Tilts Republican.
HD-79 Democratic Primary: Moderate incumbent Delegate Steve Heretick went down in defeat to his left-wing primary challenger, Nadarius Clark. Clark defeated Heretick and a third challenger (Dante Walston) by about three points (45.7% for Clark, 42.4% for Heretick, and 11.9% for Walston). Clark should be a shoo-in to win in November in this Biden+28 district.
HD-83 Republican Primary: Honestly, this was the most interesting result of the night in any state. Former longtime moderate Delegate Chris Stolle was looking to make a comeback after losing in 2019, but he lost to conservative attorney Tim Anderson by just under 30 votes. Anderson, who made waves in the Virginia GOP circles after defending conservative firebrand Senator Amanda Chase, will now face Democratic incumbent Nancy Guy in November. That race was originally rated as a slight Republican flip, but now that Anderson won the nomination, it got moved to the rating of Tilts Democratic.
HD-84 Democratic Primary: In a bit of a nasty race in a Biden+3 district in Virginia Beach, Virginia Beach Board of Education member Kim Melnyk defeated journalist Tracie Liguid by about 5 points (52.6-47.4). Melnyk, who dodged allegations of being a Republican until very recently, will now face Republican incumbent Glenn Davis in November in a race CNalysis rates as Leans Republican.
HD-86 Democratic Primary: Businesswoman Irene Shin unseated incumbent Delegate Ibraheem Samirah by a little over three points (51.7-48.3). Shin now stands a good shot at being elected in November in this Biden+42 seat. Because of that, she also stands a good shot at becoming the first ever Korean-America woman elected to the Virginia State Legislature! History making victory potentially here.
Overall, the Virginia primaries were kind of chaotic. We saw the most number of incumbents defeated in decades and a few primaries that may decide whether the chamber flips to the GOP or not in November. If a primary you wanted to know the results of wasn’t on here, be sure to check out https://www.vpap.org/electionresults/20210608/house/, they have all the primary results from every race in Virginia from last Tuesday!
NEW JERSEY PRIMARY RESULTS:
There weren’t a ton of interesting results out of the Garden State last Tuesday, but there were a few that definitely stood out. Let’s go over them:
SD-02 Republican Primary: Former State Assemblyman Vince Polistina secured the GOP nomination here by defeating former Atlantic County Commissioner/2018 NJ-02 nominee Seth Grossman by about 39 points (69.7-30.3). Polistina will now face Democratic State Assemblyman Vince Mazzeo in November in a district CNalysis currently rates as a Toss-Up.
AD-13 Republican Primary: After getting kicked off the county ballot line, Republican Assemblywoman Serena DiMaso was unable to secure the nomination for this Trump+6 seat in northern Monmouth County. DiMaso lost to incumbent Assemblyman Gerard Scharfenberger and School Board President Vicki Flynn. Scharfenberger came in first with 36.5%, Flynn in second with 36%, and DiMaso in last with 27.5%. Scharfenberger and Flynn now enter November as decent favorites to win.
SD-16 Republican Primary: Former Congressman Michael Pappas defeated businessman Jeffrey Grant to win the Republican nomination in this open Republican seat that went to Biden by over 20 points. Pappas defeated Grant by about 28 points (64.7-35.3) and will now face Democratic State Assemblyman Andrew Zwicker in November in a race CNalysis rates as a Leans Democratic flip.
SD-20 Democratic Primary: Incumbent State Senator Joseph Cryan turned back a challenge from State Assemblyman Jamel Holley in this Biden+48 district based in the Elizabeth area. Cryan defeated Holley by 30 points (65-35) and currently faces no challengers in November, so he’s pretty much assured another term in the Senate.
AD-26 Republican Primary: After being dumped from the county line, incumbent Assemblywoman BettyLou DeCroce fought hard to secure the GOP nomination, but ultimately failed. Incumbent Assemblyman Jay Webber and union official Christian Barranco won the two GOP nominations, with DeCroce coming in third and Morris County Commissioner Thomas Mastrangelo coming in fourth. Webber got 34.4%, Barranco got 23.7%, DeCroce got 22%, and Mastrangelo got 19.9%. Webber and Barranco should be the favorites to win in November in this Trump+2 seat.
SD-37 Democratic Primary: State Assemblyman Gordon Johnson easily defeated State Assemblywoman Valerie Huttle for the Democratic nomination in this open, solidly Democratic seat in eastern Bergen County. Johnson defeated Huttle by over 48 points (74.2-25.8) and should be a shoo-in to win four years in the Senate in November.
AD-37 Democratic Primary: With two seats open thanks to both Assemblypeople running for State Senate, it looked like a wide open race between four candidates: Englewood Cliffs Borough Councilwoman Ellen Park, Tenafly City Councilwoman Shama Haider, Teaneck Town Councilman Gervon Romney-Rice, and Tenafly City Councilwoman Lauren Dayton. However, Park and Haider secured the county ballot line and as a result, easily won the two nominations. Park got 37.1%, Haider got 36.3%, Romney-Rice got 14.6%, and Dayton got 12%. Park & Haider will enter November as heavy favorites to win in this Biden+38 seat.
Overall, the New Jersey primaries were a bit boring. They did teach us one thing though, the county ballot line is still king. If you can secure that, you’re going to win the primary almost 100% of the time. However, these results also may give some credence to an ongoing lawsuit that seeks to eliminate the ballot line system, arguing that it creates an unfair advantage for whoever wins the county ballot line. If Tuesday taught us anything, the people who believe that may have a point.
JUNE SPECIAL ELECTION RECAP (So Far):
We haven’t had a ton of special elections so far in June, but the ones we have had have been pretty interesting:
June 8th (New Hampshire HD-Merrimack 23 Election): Republicans sensed opportunity to flip this ancestrally Republican Biden+10 district in the towns of Bow & Dunbarton. They nominated businessman Christopher Lins, while the Democrats nominated retired teacher Muriel Hall. In the end, Hall ended up beating Lins 57.9-42.1, overperforming Biden by nearly six points! She ran even with Biden in the more Republican town of Dunbarton, but overperformed Biden in the more college-educated town of Bow.
June 12th (Louisiana SD-07 Election): This Biden+42 seat in southern New Orleans became open when State Senator Troy Carter (D) resigned in order to become LA-02 Congressman. In the race to replace him, his nephew (State Representative Gary Carter Jr.) won the seat outright in the first round. He came in first with 60.2%, Republican businesswoman Patrica McCarty came in second with 17.2%, Democratic Plaquemines Parish Elections Supervisor Joanna Cappiello-Leopold came in third with 13.8%, and Democratic State Representative Mack Cormier came in fourth with 8.8%. A little bit of revenge with those last two candidates, as Cormier beat Cappiello-Leopold’s husband (a Republican) in 2019 to win his State House seat. Now he finishes in fourth behind his wife in his bid to jump up to the State Senate. Anyway, Carter’s D+69 State House seat in southeastern New Orleans will now be up for a special election. That should be scheduled for sometime in August/September.
June 15th (Georgia HD-34 & HD-156 Elections, Wisconsin AD-37 Republican Primary): Both of Georgia’s races are going to runoffs. In HD-34, a Republican-held seat in Kennesaw that went to Trump by four points, a runoff will take place in July between Republican businessman Devan Seabaugh and Democratic teacher Priscilla Smith. Seabaugh came in first with 47.1%, Smith in second with 24.6%, Democratic attorney Sam Hensley in third with 15.8%, former Republican Kennesaw City Councilman David Blinkhorn in fourth with 11.8%, and Libertarian teacher Chris Neil in last with 0.7%. That runoff will take place on July 13th.
In HD-156, a Republican-held seat in the Vidalia/Baxley area that went to Trump by 50 points, a runoff will take place in July between two Republicans: businesswoman Leesa Hagan and businessman Wally Sapp. Hagan came in first with 43.1%, Sapp in second with 42.3%, and Democratic sailor Wright Gres came in third with 14.6%. That runoff will take place on July 13th.
In Wisconsin’s AD-37 Republican Primary, a GOP primary in a Republican-held seat in the Watertown area that went to Trump by 11, political aide William Penterman won the nomination with less than 20% of the vote. Penterman came in first with 19.8%, teacher Jennifer Meinhardt came in second with 19.4%, political aide Nick Krueger came in third with 16.2%, farmer Nathan Pollnow came in fourth with 14%, School Board member Steve Kauffeld came in fifth with 13.4%, Waterloo Mayor Jennifer Quimby came in sixth with 11.3%, Dodge County Supervisor Cathy Ann Houchin came in seventh with 4.8%, and perennial candidate Spencer Zimmerman came in last with 1.1%. Penterman will now face Democratic Columbus City Councilman Pete Adams on July 13th. We have two special elections left in June: A Democratic primary run-off in Alabama’s HD-78 and an all-party primary in California’s AD-18. Those take place on June 22nd and June 29th respectively.
That’s all for this edition of Uncrewed’s Legislative Election Watch! I’ll be back on June 30th to go over all the happenings in the Virginia and New Jersey legislative elections and preview all the special elections taking place in June. Until then, stay awesome!