Uncrewed's Legislative Election Watch (4/28/21)

Hello everybody and welcome to Uncrewed’s Legislative Election Watch! If you’re new here, the Legislative Election Watch is where I cover all the news on legislative elections going on across the country. In this edition, I’ll be going over all the primaries coming up in New Jersey, run down the news in Virginia that has happened since the last newsletter, and preview the May Legislative special elections. Let’s get to it!

NEW JERSEY PRIMARIES OVERVIEW:

There are a lot of legislative primaries coming up in New Jersey. I’ll start off in the State Senate, which features several interesting/competitive primaries.

SD-02 Republican Primary (Atlantic City area, Biden+10.7 in 2020):

This Republican-held seat is open this year thanks to Republican incumbent Chris Brown retiring. As such, an interesting two-person race has emerged between former State Assemblyman Vince Polistina and former Atlantic County Commissioner/2018 NJ-02 Republican nominee Seth Grossman. Polistina has the all-important county ballot line (which essentially means a better ballot position compared to other candidates), which puts Grossman at a disadvantage. However, Grossman has won before without the ballot line (he won the GOP nomination for NJ-02 in 2018 without it!), so it’s not the end of the world for him. Whoever wins this race will face Democratic State Assemblyman Vince Mazzeo in November, a race CNalysis currently rates as a toss-up.

SD-20 Democratic Primary (Elizabeth area, Biden+48 in 2020):

This Democratic-held seat features an interesting race between incumbent State Senator Joe Cryan and State Assemblyman Jamel Holley. Holley is an interesting figure in New Jersey politics to put it lightly. He’s been accused of ballot tampering back before he was a State Assemblyman and was accused of harassment and intimidation back in 2016 by the person who succeeded him as Mayor of Roselle. He’s also an ardent anti-vaxxer, which probably won’t help in the middle of the country’s biggest vaccine rollout ever. However, he is popular in his district (he’s escaped being primaried multiple times), so the Democratic power players in the state are taking his challenge seriously. Everyone from Cory Booker to Phil Murphy has endorsed Cryan, who has also secured the coveted county line. One thing that helps Holley on the other hand is the district’s demographics (35% Hispanic, 33% African-American, 26% White), which should help him against the white Cryan. No Republicans have filed here, so whoever wins this primary will almost assuredly become the next State Senator for this district.

SD-37 Democratic Primary (Eastern Bergen County, Biden+38 in 2020):

An open State Senate seat in this solidly Democratic district has led to both of this district’s Assemblypeople running. State Assemblywoman Valerie Huttle will face her colleague/State Assemblyman Gordon Johnson in this primary race to succeed longtime State Senator Loretta Weinberg. On paper this race seems like a pure toss-up, but Johnson has several advantages. He’s won the county ballot line and has endorsements from Weinberg and Governor Phil Murphy. Huttle, on the other hand, only has the endorsement of the Garden State Equality group. The winner of this race will be the heavy favorite for the November election as CNalysis currently rates this district as solidly Democratic.

AD-13 Republican Primary (Northern Monmouth County, Trump+5.7 in 2020):

Local political drama has taken center stage in this Republican primary. Incumbent Assemblyman Gerard Scharfenberger secured the county ballot line easily, but his district-mate, Assemblywoman Serena DiMaso, didn’t have it so easily. She lost the county ballot line to Holmdel Township School Board member Vicki Flynn and now has to run off the line. Why did this happen? Well, DiMaso endorsed a slate of candidates that was different than what the heads of the Monmouth County GOP wanted back in the local elections of 2019/2020. Because of that, she now faces an uphill battle to retain her seat. However, DiMaso has secured the endorsements of several important statewide GOP politicians (former NJ GOP Chairman Doug Steinhardt and former Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno are the biggest), so that might help her. Whatever two Republicans make it out of the primary should be the favorites to win these seats as no Democrat has won a seat here since the 1980’s.

AD-20 Democratic Primary (Elizabeth area, Biden+48 in 2020):

An interesting primary has emerged in this solidly Democratic seat. Democratic Assemblywoman Annette Quijano is running for re-election, but her district-mate, Assemblyman Jamel Holley, is running for State Senate. Quijano is running here under the county ballot line along with former Roselle Mayor Reginald Atkins. However, Holley has endorsed his own slate of candidates: businessman Christian Veliz and Hillside Township Councilwoman Diane Murray-Clements. Quijano and Atkins should be the favorites to win thanks to the county ballot line, but Veliz and Murray-Clements shouldn’t be counted out, especially if Holley keeps his race with Joseph Cryan close. Whatever two Democrats win the primary here won’t face any Republican opponents in November, so this primary is pretty much tantamount to election

AD-26 Republican Primary (Northern Morris County area, Trump+2.4 in 2020):

This primary has devolved into one big mess essentially. The two Republican Assemblypeople here, Jay Webber and BettyLou DeCroce, have never really had to worry about primary elections, but that changed this year. DeCroce got bounced off the Morris County ballot line (the biggest in the district) for an union official named Christian Barranco. Things got even weirder when it came to the other two counties in the district (Passaic and Essex). In Passaic, Webber didn’t get the ballot line, but DeCroce and Barranco did. In Essex, only DeCroce got the ballot line. To add one final bow on this mountain of craziness, Morris County Commissioner Thomas Mastrangelo decided to jump in at the last minute and run off the line. In conclusion, this race is a mess and I cannot tell you who’s the favorite. The only thing I can really say is that whatever two Republicans win here will be the favorites to win in November.

AD-37 Democratic Primary (Eastern Bergen County, Biden+38 in 2020):

With both sitting Assemblypeople (Valerie Huttle and Gordon Johnson) running for Senate, these two Assembly seats are wide open. Both retiring Assemblypeople have endorsed a slate of candidates. Huttle has endorsed Teaneck Town Councilman Gervonn Romney-Rice and Tenafly City Councilwoman Lauren Dayton, while Johnson has endorsed Tenafly City Councilwoman Shama Haider and Englewood Cliffs Borough Councilwoman Ellen Park. Much like the Huttle-Johnson Senate race, Johnson’s candidates have secured the county ballot line, while Huttle’s candidates are running off the line. Whatever two Democrats win here will be the overwhelming favorites to win in November in this solidly Democratic district.

There are more primaries happening that I didn’t mention here for the sake of not wanting to make this newsletter too long, but I will have the full results of all the primaries after the June 8th election!

VIRGINIA CAMPAIGN FINANCE DEADLINE:

The first campaign finance deadline recently passed in Virginia for the upcoming primaries. Most incumbents facing primaries out-raised their opponents, but three incumbent Democrats (including two who are running for statewide office) and one Republican have been out-raised by their primary opponents. I’ll be covering all the important primaries in detail in the next edition of the Legislative Election Watch!

MAY SPECIAL ELECTION PREVIEW:

April didn’t really bring any huge surprises when it came to special legislative elections. Most races pretty much went the way you’d expect them to and they’re not really telling us anything about 2022 yet. Maybe May will change that, so let’s get to the previews!

Our first special election in May doesn’t come until May 18th. That’s when California’s 54th Assembly District holds a special election. This Biden+71 district in south-Central Los Angeles became open when Democratic incumbent Sydney Kamlager resigned to join the State Senate. The only candidates running here are Democrats, so they’re guaranteed to keep this seat. The four candidates running here are (in order of most money raised to least): political aide Isaac Bryan, political aide Heather Hutt, nonprofit executive Dallas Fowler, and civil attorney Cheryl Turner. Bryan has the endorsements of Congresswoman Karen Bass and now-State Senator Sydney Kamlager, while Hutt has the endorsement of Congresswoman Maxine Waters. If no candidate gets over 50%, this race will go to a runoff which will take place on July 20th.

May 18th also features four special elections in the Keystone State, Pennsylvania! The first election takes place in HD-59, a Trump+40 seat in eastern Westmoreland County. Republican incumbent Mike Reese had held this seat since 2008, but passed away earlier this year. The Democrats nominated Ligonier Borough Councilwoman Mariah Fisher, while the Republicans nominated businesswoman Leslie Baum Rossi. You may know Rossi from the 2016 Presidential election campaign, as she made some headlines back then for transforming an abandoned home into a full scale “Trump House.”

The next Pennsylvania election is in HD-60, a Trump+48 seat in southern Armstrong County. This seat became open when Republican incumbent Jeff Pyle resigned due to health complications. The Democrats nominated retired school superintendent Frank Prazenica, while the Republicans nominated political aide Abby Major, who served as Pyle’s Chief of Staff.

We also have two State Senate elections in Pennsylvania on May 18th. The first one is in SD-22, a Biden+9 district in the Scranton area. Democratic incumbent John Blake vacated this seat in order to take a job in Congressman Matt Cartwright’s office. The Democrats nominated State Representative Marty Flynn, while the Republicans nominated Lackawanna County Commissioner Chris Chermak. While this district has been getting more Republican on the Presidential-level, it’s still pretty Democratic on the downballot level (Blake won by 23 points in his last bid for re-election).

Our final special election in Pennsylvania takes place in SD-48, a Trump+20 district in the Lebanon County area. This district became open when Republican incumbent David Arnold passed away earlier this year. The Democrats nominated veterinarian Calvin Clements, while the Republicans nominated businessman Chris Gebhard. Weirdly enough, this is the second special election for this district since the last regularly scheduled election in 2018. The first one took place in January 2020 and saw the Republicans win by 29 points.

The final special election in May takes place on May 25th in Alabama’s 78th House District in western Montgomery. It’s only a Democratic primary, but this is such a solidly Democratic district that the primary is pretty much tantamount to election. The four Democrats running in the primary here are: former Montgomery City Councilman Terance Dawson, activist Kenyatte Hassell, businessman Roderick Thornton, and manufacturer Donald Williams. If no candidate gets over 50%, the top two will go to a runoff on June 22nd.

That’s all for the second edition of Uncrewed’s Legislative Election Watch! I’ll be back in a few weeks to talk about the Virginia legislative primaries and cover the first New Jersey campaign finance deadline. Until then, stay awesome!