Uncrewed's Legislative Election Watch- May 17th, 2022

Covering all the important legislative primaries happening in Pennsylvania today!

Hello everybody and welcome to Uncrewed’s Legislative Election Watch! If you’re new here, the Legislative Election Watch is where I cover all the news on legislative elections going on across the country. In this edition, we’re going to the great Commonwealth of Pennsylvania to go over some of the more interesting State Legislative primaries taking place today! Without further ado, let’s get into it!

Starting with the Republican primaries…

SD-14 (Biden+7, Allentown Area):

Three Republicans are running in this newly-created, heavily competitive district covering the Allentown area: Marine Corps veteran Omy Maldonado, businesswoman Cindy Miller, and former Lehigh County Commissioner Dean Browning (who you may remember for pretending to be a gay African-American man on Twitter when he is in fact a straight, white man: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/11/10/dean-browning-white-politician-tweets-black-gay-guy/6243406002/).

Anyway, Browning and Maldonado have been pretty close in the fundraising department, but I think Browning’s name recognition (he ran for Congress in PA-07 in 2020) ultimately pushes him over the finish line. Whoever wins will be in for a tough fight in November in this district that we at CNalysis currently rate as a Toss-Up.

HD-04 (Trump+24, Southern/Eastern Erie County):

Six Republicans are running in this open/solidly Republican district covering southern/eastern Erie County: businessman Greg Hayes, businesswoman Jennifer Lesher, musician/conservative activist Jake Banta, businessman Jason Monn, businessman Joseph Cancilla, and John Diamond. With such a large field and no major endorsements between any of the candidates, it’s hard to tell which candidate is going to win. If I had to guess though, I’d say Hayes because he’s run in part of this district before (an unsuccessful run for State House in 2020).

HD-05 (Trump+26, Northern Berks County):

Republican incumbent Barry Jozwiak is facing an interesting challenge from conservative activist David Golowski in this solidly Republican district covering most of northern Berks County. Golowski gained some attention back at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic when he started a directory highlighting businesses that were operating in defiance of the COVID stay-at-home orders. Because of that, among other issues, Golowski has earned the backing of several conservative activist groups and, more importantly, the Berks County Republican Committee. I still think Jozwiak will win this, but it’s going to be interesting to see how much of the vote Golowski gets. 

HD-09 (Trump+26, Western Lawrence County):

Three Republicans are running in this Democratic-held, Republican-leaning district covering the New Castle area: businesswoman Marla Brown, realtor Darryl Audia, and political aide Nick Kerin. It’s hard to tell who’s going to win this, but if I had to guess I’d say it’d be Brown. Audia shouldn’t be counted out though, as he may have name recognition from his bid in 2020 (he ran as a Libertarian and got nearly 10%).

HD-12 (Trump+20, Southern Butler County):

Three Republicans are running in this open, solidly Republican district covering southern Butler County: Zelienople Borough Councilman Gregg Semel, pilot Scott Timko, and attorney Stephanie Scialabba. All three have raised similar amounts of money, while Semel and Scialabba have been backed by several conservative activist groups. This one is really up in the air for who wins, but if I had to guess I’d say Semel wins it.

HD-86 (Trump+52, Perry County Area):

Our first incumbent vs incumbent primary of the night comes in HD-86, a solidly Republican district covering Perry County and the surrounding area. HD-82 Representative Jonathan Hershey will face HD-86 Representative Perry Stambaugh in a race between two solidly conservative Representatives. As with most incumbent vs incumbent matchups, this probably comes down to who gets their base out better. Because of that, I think Stambaugh will win thanks to having more of his old district in this new district.

HD-87 (Trump+12, Central Cumberland County):

Two Republicans are running in this open, Republican-leaning district covering central Cumberland County: Lower Allen Township Commissioner Thomas Kutz and businessman Eric Clancy. Kutz leads the two in fundraising, but his home area only makes up a small portion of the district, which should help Clancy. I think Kutz will win this, but Clancy definitely has an outside chance.

HD-98 (Trump+25, Elizabethtown Area):

This open, safely Republican district covering parts of Lancaster and Lebanon Counties features a three-way race for the Republican nomination: East Donegal Township Supervisor Tom Jones, Mount Joy Borough Councilwoman/aide to House Speaker Bryan Cutler LuAnn Fahndrich, and South Londonderry Township Supervisor Faith Bucks. Jones and Fahndrich lead the pack in fundraising, with Bucks lagging behind. I think Fahndrich will win this, but it wouldn’t shock me if Jones or Bucks won it.

HD-118 (Trump+3, Western Lackawanna County):

Two Republicans are running in this Democratic-held/toss-up seat covering parts of Lackawanna and Luzerne Counties: Luzerne County Councilman John Lombardo and 2020 nominee/former PennDOT spokesman James May. Lombardo leads May in fundraising and his home base of Luzerne does make up more of the district than May’s base of Lackawanna. However, May’s name recognition from his 2020 run may be enough to keep him in this. I don’t think that’ll be the case and I think Lombardo will win this.

HD-187 (Trump+8, Western Lehigh County):

The final incumbent vs incumbent Republican primary of the night comes in this Republican-leaning district covering western Lehigh County. HD-187 Representative Gary Day faces HD-134 Representative Ryan Mackenzie here. Mackenzie has out-fundraised Day and has heavily attacked him for not being conservative enough. The only thing Day has going for him is that his old district makes up more of the new district than Mackenzie’s. I think Mackenzie wins this, Day hasn’t really run a notable campaign.

Now onto the Democratic side of things!

SD-08 (Biden+71, Southwestern Philadelphia):

Democratic incumbent Anthony Williams is facing a challenge from his left in this solidly Democratic district in southern Philadelphia from public school teacher/union activist Paul Prescod. Prescod has been backed by the Philadelphia Enquirer and several local unions (most notably the Philadelphia Federation of Teachers). Williams, on the other hand, has experience on his side, having been the incumbent here for nearly 24 years! I think Williams wins this, but if you’re looking for a successful left-wing primary in Pennsylvania, this will probably be where it’s at.

SD-14 (Biden+7, Allentown Area):

Three Democrats are running in this newly-created, pure toss-up district in the Allentown area: Northampton County Commissioner Tara Zrinski, Allentown School Board Member Nick Miller, and nonprofit director Yamelisa Taveras. Zrinski has been endorsed by several local unions and groups like the Working Families Party, while Miller has the backing of local State Rep Mike Schlossberg. This is pretty much a toss-up between Zrinski and Miller, but I think Miller pulls it out in the end thanks to a slight fundraising advantage.

HD-10 (Biden+88, Garden Court/Powelton Village (Philadelphia)):

Democratic incumbent Amen Brown is facing two primary challengers in this safely Democratic district in southeastern Philadelphia. Brown is facing two progressive activists: Sajda Blackwell and Cass Green. Brown leads the three in fundraising, but has faced accusations of deed fraud and barely made it onto the ballot over residency issues. Green is backed by District Attorney Larry Krasner (who Brown has publicly feuded with) and State Senator Nikil Saval. Blackwell is backed by Philadelphia Sheriff Rochelle Bilal and City Councilman David Oh. I think Brown will win this one, mostly thanks to Blackwell and Green splitting the anti-Brown vote. Though if you’re looking for a non-Brown candidate to win, it’s probably going to be Green.

HD-34 (Biden+62, Eastern Pittsburgh):

An interesting race has emerged in this solidly Democratic district covering the eastern Pittsburgh area. Democratic incumbent Summer Lee is facing a challenge from Swissvale Borough Councilwoman Abigail Salisbury, who is being backed by the Allegheny County Democratic Committee and several local unions. Here’s where it gets interesting, Lee is also running for Congress (PA-12) at the same time she’s running for re-election. If she wins the nomination for PA-12 and her primary here, she’ll be forced to vacate her spot on the November ballot for this district. That could give an opening to Salisbury to get the nomination even if she loses to Lee today. Politics is really weird sometimes.

HD-49 (Biden+35, Southern Lancaster):

Two candidates are running in this newly-created, safely Democratic district covering the southern Lancaster area: Lancaster City Council President Izzy Smith-Wade-El and Lancaster City Councilwoman Janet Diaz. Izzy leads Diaz in fundraising and has a lot of endorsements from Lancaster city officials and several progressive State Legislators. Diaz is backed by a few state Representatives and may have lingering name recognition from her State Senate run here in 2020. I think Izzy pulls this one out, but I would not be shocked at a Diaz win.

HD-54 (Biden+43, Norristown Area):

Two Democrats are running in this newly-created, safely Democratic district nestled in suburban Philadelphia: former Norristown Borough Council President Rochelle Culbreath and judge Greg Scott. Scott leads the two in fundraising and is backed by several local unions and politicians. Culbreath, on the other hand, has been backed by several State Representatives in the Philadelphia area. This one is pretty much a pure toss-up, but if I had to guess, I’d say Culbreath pulls it out.

HD-166 (Biden+27, Haverford Township):

Democratic incumbent Greg Vitali is facing a primary challenge from community activist David Brown in this Delaware County-based district. Brown is running a surprisingly strong campaign against the nearly 30-year incumbent. He’s leading Vitali in the fundraising campaign and even earned the endorsement of the Delaware County Democratic Party. However, Vitali has the backing of the AFL-CIO and the Sierra Club and was able to turn back a similar primary challenge in 2020 by nearly 15 points. I think Vitali holds on, but I would not be surprised if Brown was able to knock off the longtime incumbent.

HD-172 (Biden+7, Fox Chase Area (Philadelphia)):

Democratic incumbent Kevin Boyle is facing a primary challenge from political aide Bob Stewart in this northeastern Philadelphia-based seat and boy it’s definitely a Philadelphia election. So, backstory: Boyle (who’s the brother of PA-02 Congressman Brendan Boyle) was arrested in September 2021 for harassment and violating a restraining order. He was stripped of his committee assignments, but got them back in January after the charges were dropped without anybody really saying anything. It’s not like Boyle’s arrest flew under the radar either, Governor Tom Wolf called on him to resign! Another piece of information you should know, Boyle and former State Senator John Sabatina (D) hated each other. In fact, Boyle’s opponent this year (Bob Stewart) served as Sabatina’s communications director! So, yeah it’s a battle of two really powerful Philadelphia Democrats. Boyle has led Stewart in the fundraising department and I think he’s the favorite to win as of now.

HD-182 (Biden+76, Downtown Philadelphia):

Four Democrats are running in this open, safely Democratic seat covering downtown Philadelphia: activist Jonathan Lovitz, Philadelphia Health Department official Deja Alvarez, businessman Will Gross, and journalist Ben Waxman. Lovitz, who’s had a long career in LGBT+ advocacy including a stint on LogoTV, leads the pack in fundraising and has endorsements from the AFL-CIO, former Governor Ed Rendell, and several national activists like George Takei and Jim Obergefell. Alvarez is close behind in fundraising and would make history with a win, as she would become not just the first trans state legislator in Pennsylvania history, but the first trans Latina state legislator in American history! Gross lags behind Lovitz and Alvarez in fundraising, but has endorsements from a few local Democratic groups. Waxman rounds out the pack in fundraising, but is backed by the Philadelphia Democratic Party and District Attorney Larry Krasner. This is a really strong field of candidates and I really feel like any of them (except for Gross) could win. If I had to guess I’d say Lovitz pulls it out, but you can make a strong case for Alvarez and especially Waxman winning.

HD-184 (Biden+35, Southeastern Philadelphia):

Democratic incumbent Elizabeth Fiedler is being primaried from the right by realtor Michael Giangiordano in this safely Democratic district in southeastern Philadelphia. Giangiordano has attacked Fiedler for being a Democratic Socialists of America member, claiming that she wants to abolish the police and prisons. He’s also won the support of the Philadelphia Democratic Party and a few local unions. However, Fiedler has a lot of endorsements from a ton of prominent Democrats in Pennsylvania. She’s being backed by: Governor Tom Wolf, US Senator Bob Casey, Attorney General Josh Shapiro, Congresswoman Mary Gay Scanlon, etc. The list goes on and that includes several local unions as well. I think Fiedler should win this, but it’ll be interesting to see how much of the vote Giangiordano gets.

HD-194 (Biden+55, Roxborough Area (Philadelphia)):

Democratic incumbent Pam DeLissio is facing a spirited challenge from nurse Tarik Khan in this northwestern Philadelphia-based district. Khan has smoked DeLissio in the fundraising department and has the backing of State Senator Nikil Saval and several local unions. As for DeLissio, it’s hard to tell how serious of a campaign she’s really running. Her campaign website hasn’t been updated in six years and she’s only made one campaign appearance by my count (a debate with Khan back in April). I think Khan honestly wins this, he’s gotten a lot of local attention for his work vaccinating Philadelphians against COVID-19, which earned him a lot of good press. That, combined with fundraising and the lack thereof from DeLissio makes me think he’ll be the next State Representative from HD-194.

HD-200 (Biden+93, Mount Airy/West Oak Lane (Philadelphia)):

The only incumbent vs incumbent Democratic primary is taking place in this solidly Democratic district in northwestern Philadelphia. HD-203 Representative Isabella Fitzgerald will face HD-200 Representative Christopher Rabb here. Fitzgerald leads Rabb in fundraising and has the backing of the Philadelphia Democratic Party, but Rabb has the backing of several local unions and the Sierra Club. Fitzgerald has also attacked Rabb for not supporting Democrats enough, pointing to his endorsement of a Working Families Party candidate in the 2019 City Council elections. I think Fitzgerald pulls this off, but if Rabb wins that’s another sign the once-vaunted Philadelphia Democratic machine may be a shell of what it once was.

HD-201 (Biden+93, Germantown/Wister (Philadelphia)):

Democratic incumbent Stephen Kinsey is facing an interesting challenge from community activist Andre Carroll in this northwestern Philadelphia-based district. The five-term incumbent has been pushed to his limit by Carroll in the fundraising department. Carroll also has amassed several impressive endorsements from a few Philadelphia City Councilpeople and State Senator Nikil Saval. I think Kinsey pulls this one out, but Carroll has run a great campaign and has a decent shot at unseating the incumbent.

Before we end this, we also have a special election taking place in Pennsylvania today. It’s in SD-05, a Democratic-held, Biden+10 district covering northern Philadelphia. This seat was vacated when State Senator John Sabatina resigned in order to become a judge. The Democrats nominated Philadelphia School District official/former college basketball star Jimmy Dillon, while the Republicans nominated real estate agent/former mixed martial artist Sam Oropeza. Yes, this is an election between two former athletes, which is certainly unique. Anyway, Dillon has raised a lot of money (nearly $400,000) and this district is more Democratic downballot than the Presidential number would have you guess. The one upside for Oropeza is that this district is still trending Republican (having gone from Clinton+15 to Biden+10 in just four years). I think Dillon will win this, but if Oropeza pulls off the upset, that pretty much shuts the door on any Democratic hopes of flipping or tying  the State Senate this year (they need 4 seats to tie and a hypothetical fifth flip is nearly impossible in this environment).

That’s all for this edition of Uncrewed’s Legislative Election Watch! I’ll be back next week to cover all the important legislative primaries in Georgia and the runoffs in Texas! Until then, stay excellent!