Uncrewed's Legislative Election Watch- June 2nd, 2021
Hello everybody and welcome to Uncrewed’s Legislative Election Watch! If you’re new here, the Legislative Election Watch is where I cover all the news on legislative elections going on across the country. In this edition, I’ll be previewing the Virginia and New Jersey primaries one more time before Tuesday’s election and going over the special elections in June. Let’s get to it!
VIRGINIA PRIMARY PREVIEW:
The Virginia primaries are coming up on Tuesday. While the obvious focus is going to be on the Governor and Attorney General primaries on the Democratic side, there are plenty of legislative primaries that you should be paying attention to. These primaries run the gambit from your traditional ones like progressives challenging incumbents from the left to some more unique ones that mostly revolve around extremely local issues. Here are my top five primaries to watch this Tuesday:
1) HD-45 Democratic Primary (Eastern Alexandria, Biden+59):
Democratic incumbent Mark Levine is being challenged by Alexandria Vice-Mayor Elizabeth Bennett-Parker in this solidly Democratic district. Levine, who is running for Lieutenant Governor at the same time, has been handily out-fundraised and out-spent by Bennett-Parker. She also has the endorsements of multiple Alexandria city officials and State Senator Adam Ebbin (who represents this area in the Senate). If you’re looking for any district to see an incumbent lose a primary, this is probably the most likely place for it to happen.
2) HD-68 Democratic Primary (Western Richmond, Biden+19):
Democratic incumbent Dawn Adams is facing a challenge from local attorney Kyle Elliott in a primary that’s mostly been about local issues. Elliott has the support of Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney, but has trailed Adams in the fundraising department. A potential loss here from Adams could lead to a competitive November election, but that remains to be seen.
3) HD-79 Democratic Primary (Northern Portsmouth, BIden+28):
A more traditional primary is happening in this solidly Democratic district on the Chesapeake Bay. Democratic incumbent Steve Heretick is facing a challenge from his left by progressive activist Nadarius Clark. Heretick’s votes against an assault weapon and ending qualified immunity has led to Clark raising over $500,000 against him. Just based on that financial advantage alone, I wager to guess that Clark stands a good shot at defeating the six-year incumbent. However, there is a wild card here of sorts, music teacher Dante Walston. He’s the third candidate on the ballot and while he hasn’t raised a ton of money, it may be enough to swing the primary in either direction.
4) HD-83 Republican Primary (Northern Virginia Beach, Biden+15):
An interesting three-way race is taking place in Virginia Beach to determine who’s going to challenge one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents in the state. Former Delegate Chris Stolle is running to get his old job back, but he has to get through two conservative opponents first: attorney Tim Anderson and real estate broker Phil Kazmierczak. Stolle should win the primary based on name recognition, but Anderson is out-lapping him in the fundraising department and has conservative credentials, so he’s got an outside shot at winning.
5) HD-86 Democratic Primary (Herndon area, Biden+42):
Democratic incumbent Ibraheem Samirah is facing a stiff challenge from nonprofit director Irene Shin. The two have been neck and neck in the fundraising and endorsement departments. Just based on fundraising and endorsements, I think Shin stands a good shot at pulling off a win, but definitely do not count Samirah out.
Polls in Virginia open at 6:00 AM and close at 7:00 PM on June 8th and we should have results shortly thereafter.
NEW JERSEY PRIMARY PREVIEW:
There aren’t a ton of hugely interesting primaries in New Jersey, but there are a few I want to highlight:
1) SD-02 Republican Primary (Atlantic City area, Biden+10):
This Republican-held seat is open this year thanks to Republican incumbent Chris Brown retiring. As such, an interesting two-person race has emerged between former State Assemblyman Vince Polistina and former Atlantic County Commissioner/2018 NJ-02 Republican nominee Seth Grossman. Polistina has the all-important county ballot line (which essentially means a better ballot position compared to other candidates), which puts Grossman at a disadvantage. However, Grossman has won before without the ballot line (he won the GOP nomination for NJ-02 in 2018 without it!), so it’s not the end of the world for him. We also, weirdly enough, have a poll for this district. It had over 60% undecided, but Grossman did lead Pollistina by a few points. However, the lack of the ballot line should be a decisive disadvantage for Grossman.
2) SD-20 Democratic Primary (Elizabeth area, Biden+48):
This Democratic-held seat features an interesting race between incumbent State Senator Joe Cryan and State Assemblyman Jamel Holley. Holley is an interesting figure in New Jersey politics to put it lightly. He’s been accused of ballot tampering back before he was a State Assemblyman and was accused of harassment and intimidation back in 2016 by the person who succeeded him as Mayor of Roselle. He’s also an ardent anti-vaxxer, which probably won’t help in the middle of the country’s biggest vaccine rollout ever. However, he is popular in his district (he’s escaped being primaried multiple times), so the Democratic power players in the state are taking his challenge seriously. Everyone from Cory Booker to Phil Murphy has endorsed Cryan, who has also secured the coveted county line. One thing that helps Holley on the other hand is the district’s demographics (35% Hispanic, 33% African-American, 26% White), which should help him against the white Cryan.
3) SD-37 Democratic Primary (Eastern Bergen County):
An open State Senate seat in this solidly Democratic district has led to both of this district’s Assemblypeople running. State Assemblywoman Valerie Huttle will face her colleague/State Assemblyman Gordon Johnson in this primary race to succeed longtime State Senator Loretta Weinberg. On paper this race seems like a pure toss-up, but Johnson has several advantages. He’s won the county ballot line and has endorsements from Weinberg and Governor Phil Murphy. Huttle, on the other hand, only has the endorsements of the Garden State Equality group and SD-34 State Senator Nia Gill (D).
4) AD-13 Republican Primary (Northern Monmouth County, Trump+6):
Local political drama has taken center stage in this Republican primary. Incumbent Assemblyman Gerard Scharfenberger secured the county ballot line easily, but his district-mate, Assemblywoman Serena DiMaso, didn’t have it so easily. She lost the county ballot line to Holmdel Township School Board member Vicki Flynn and now has to run off the line. Why did this happen? Well, DiMaso endorsed a slate of candidates that was different from what the heads of the Monmouth County GOP wanted back in the local elections of 2019/2020. Because of that, she now faces an uphill battle to retain her seat. However, DiMaso has secured the endorsements of several important statewide GOP politicians (former NJ GOP Chairman Doug Steinhardt and former Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno are the biggest), so that might help her.
5) AD-26 Republican Primary (Northern Morris County area, Trump+2):
This primary has devolved into one big mess essentially. The two Republican Assemblypeople here, Jay Webber and BettyLou DeCroce, have never really had to worry about primary elections, but that changed this year. DeCroce got bounced off the Morris County ballot line (the biggest in the district) for an union official named Christian Barranco. Things got even weirder when it came to the other two counties in the district (Passaic and Essex). In Passaic, Webber didn’t get the ballot line, but DeCroce and Barranco did. In Essex, only DeCroce got the ballot line. To add one final bow on this mountain of craziness, Morris County Commissioner Thomas Mastrangelo decided to jump in at the last minute and run off the line. In conclusion, this race is a mess and I cannot tell you who’s the favorite.
Polls open at 6:00 AM and close at 8:00 PM on June 8th and we should have results shortly after the polls close.
JUNE SPECIAL ELECTIONS PREVIEW:
While the main attractions in June are the Virginia/New Jersey primaries, there are still a lot of interesting special legislative elections taking place this month!
Aside from the Virginia/New Jersey primaries, June 8th also features a special election in New Hampshire! In New Hampshire’s 23rd Merrimack district (Bow/Dunbarton, Biden+11), a Democratic-held seat is up for grabs. The Democrats nominated teacher Muriel Hall, while the Republicans nominated businessman Christopher Lins. While this district did go to Biden by 11 points, it’s a bit more Republican downballot, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Lins overperformed Trump.
Next we have an interesting State Senate election in Louisiana on June 12th. SD-07 is up for grabs thanks to State Senator Troy Carter (D) vacating it in order to become LA-02 Congressman. Three Democrats and a Republican are running in this Biden+42 district in the southern New Orleans area. They are: State Representatives Gary Carter Jr. (D) and Mack Cormier (D), Plaquemines Parish Elections Supervisor Joanna Cappiello-Leopold (D), and businesswoman Patricia McCarty (R). Fun fact, Cormier actually defeated Cappiello-Leopold’s husband (a Republican) in 2019 to get his State House seat! Anyway, if no candidate gets over 50% here, a runoff will take place between the top two candidates on July 10th.
We have two big special elections in Georgia on June 15th. HD-34 is the first of the two I’ll be going over. It’s a Trump+4 seat in the Kennesaw area, which has been trending hard to the left over the past few cycles. The Republican incumbent here resigned in order to take a job in the private sector and the race to replace him has been pretty interesting. There are five candidates running: attorney Sam Hensley Jr. (D), teacher Priscilla Smith (D), former Kennesaw City Councilman David Blinkhorn (R), businessman Devan Seabaugh (R), and teacher Chris Neill (Libertarian). If no candidate gets over 50%, a runoff between the top two candidates will take place on July 13th.
The second Georgia special election on June 15th is in HD-156. This Trump+50 seat in the Vidalia/Baxley area became open when the Republican incumbent resigned in order to take a job with the Georgia Department of Transportation. Three candidates are running to replace him: sailor Wright Gres (D) (who’s calling himself the “wright choice” for southeast Georgia), businesswoman Leesa Hagan (R), and businessman Wally Sapp (R). If no candidate gets over 50%, a runoff between the top two candidates will take place on July 13th.
We also have a Republican primary in Wisconsin’s AD-37 on June 15th. This Trump+11 district in the Watertown area became open when the previous Republican incumbent resigned in order to become a State Senator. Eight Republicans are running to replace him: Dodge County Supervisor Cathy Houchin, School Board member Steve Kauffeld, political aide Nick Krueger, teacher Jennifer Meinhardt, political aide William Penterman, farmer Nathan Pollnow, Waterloo Mayor Jenifer Quimby, and perennial candidate Spencer Zimmerman. There’s no runoff system in Wisconsin, so whatever candidate comes in first gets the GOP nomination, no matter how small the % of the vote they get.
Our next special election/primary comes on June 22nd in Alabama’s 78th House district. This Biden+68 district in Montgomery became open when the previous Democratic incumbent resigned in order to become a State Senator. This is actually a runoff between activist Kenyatte Hassell and businessman Donald Williams. Hassell took 48% of the vote in the May primary, coming 2% short of winning the nomination outright. Williams took 23% at the same time. Whoever wins this primary will advance to the general election in September.
The final special election taking place in June is on June 29th in California’s 18th Assembly district. This Biden+75 seat in the Oakland/Alameda area became open when Democratic incumbent Rob Bonta resigned in order to become state Attorney General. Eight candidates are running to replace him: San Leandro City Councilman Victor Aguilar (D), San Leandro School Board Member James Aguilar (D), Alameda School Board President Mia Bonta (D), public health professional Eugene Canson (D), attorney Janani Ramachandran (D), Alameda City Councilwoman Malia Vella (D), businessman Stephen Slauson (R), and activist Joel Britton (Independent). Bonta leads the pack in endorsements and fundraising and should be the favorite to win at least one spot in the runoff or even win this election outright. If no one gets over 50%, a runoff between the top two will take place on August 31st.
That’s it for this edition of Uncrewed’s Legislative Election Watch! I’ll be back in two weeks to go over all the primary results from New Jersey and Virginia. Until then, stay awesome!